In order to make room for the recent signing of superstar first baseman Mark Teixeira, the New York Yankees organization designated first baseman Shelley Duncan for assignment. Duncan originally burst on to the scene back in 2007 by hitting seven home runs in just 74 at-bats, good for a .297 ISO.

Being a New York ‘prospect,’ Duncan’s value was instantly overstated, especially considering that he was 27 years old and had a career minor league batting average right around .250 in seven seasons. He did have some potential, though, having been a second round draft pick in 2001 out of the University of Arizona. He had also slugged 34 home runs in Double-A in 2005.

At the beginning of spring training in 2008, Yankees manager Joe Girardi was quoted by the New York Daily News as saying Duncan, “will get every chance to win the first base job.” Some New York fans touted Duncan as the next late-blooming star-in-the-making, while others warned of the next Kevin Maas (who set a record as the quickest player to 10 home runs to begin his career: 72 at-bats, but was out of Major League Baseball at the age 30).

The latter group of fans appears to have been correct about Duncan. Although his 2008 season was marred by injuries, it is fairly clear that he is a Quad-A player. After hitting .295/.380/.577 in Triple-A in 2007, Duncan slumped to .239/.365/.483 in 2008. His career MLB line is .221/.299/.435 with rates of 10.3 BB% and 22.8 K% in 131 at-bats.

There is no doubt that Duncan has power; he was one of the best power-hitting players in the NCAA during his college career. But his long swing and questionable plate discipline has haunted him throughout the upper levels of the minors during his pro career.

From here, Duncan would be best off finding a new organization because first base is not going to open up any time soon in New York, with Teixeira having signed an eight-year contract. In fact, he might want to consider joining the growing number of fringe Major Leaguers and Quad-A players jumping over to Japan for the 2009 season.

Unexpected stories and performances, like Duncan’s 2007 MLB season, are part of what makes Major League Baseball so much fun to watch. But it’s important to not get too wrapped up in them when valuing players and their future potentials.

As David announced this morning, the CHONE projections for 2009 are now available on the site. Sean Smith does great work with these, and they’ve been proven to be among the most accurate forecasting systems out there. Unlike the very bare bones Marcels (which are still quite good as a baseline), the CHONE projections include park effects and minor league data, which improve their accuracy a bit, especially for players where we have minimal major league data.

With that announcement, we now have three projections on each player’s page here on the site – Marcel, CHONE, and the Bill James projections from Baseball Info Solutions. One of the things that I’ve seen people do quite a bit is to take an average of the different projection systems available – especially Marcel and the James projections, since some feel Marcel is too pessimistic and James is too optimistic. However, the key is to understand the context of what each system is projecting. I figured today’s announcement would be a good starting point for a look at what I mean.

As an example, let’s take a look at Wladimir Balentien. He’s 24, has had success in the minors, but failed miserably in his first few hundred major league plate appearances last year. Here are the three forecasts for him for 2009 from the projections we have on the site:

Marcel: .239/.298/.402
CHONE: .231/.302/.409
James: .239/.312/.444

All three systems see a guy who isn’t going to hit for a high average due to his contact problems, but they vary a bit on how often he’ll draw a walk and how much power he’ll show. If you just look at the raw projections, you’d say that Marcel and CHONE aren’t big fans, but that the Bill James projections think he’s got some value. After all, it’s a 40 point OPS gap between James and CHONE.

However, take a look at this:

Marcel: 301 AB, -8.3 wRAA, -13.78 wRAA per 500 AB
CHONE: 472 AB, -6.3 wRAA, -6.67 wRAA per 500 AB
James: 426 AB, -6.6 wRAA, -7.74 wRAA per 500 AB

wRAA, of course, is the linear weights runs above (or in this case, below) a league average hitter. CHONE is actually more optimistic about Balentien than James’ projections. The entirity of the 40 point OPS difference is the projected level of offense in baseball next year. It has nothing to do with Balentien, and everything to do with what the various systems forecast as league average offense in 2009. Marcel is the one who really hates Balentien, but that’s to be expected, considering that the only data going in is his 2008 major league performance, while the other two factor in his minor league success.

You can’t look at just the BA/OBP/SLG numbers without adjusting for the projected context of that particular system. For whatever reason (my guess is that they’re not handling minor league translations very well and are overenthusiastic about young players, but that would take some more research to confirm), the Bill James projections always come out very high in forecast offense. The CHONE and Marcel projections usually match the upcoming year’s offensive level a bit better.

So, when looking at the various projection systems and the rate stats of the players, keep the environments that are being projected in mind. The value of a player isn’t in his rate stats, but in the value he provides above the baseline.

Did you know that FanGraphs leaderboards featured splits? It’s a feature I feel goes underutilized, and thus I wanted to devote a post to it. There’s a ton of interesting tidbits you can pull from using the split options, and while the “month” options are interesting, the “Past 3 Calendar Years” filter has my eye. Here’s some of what I’ve learned from using it.

Albert Pujols pretty much owns at everything. Pujols leads all qualifiers in WPA (21.04) while only Lance Berkman (16.22) sits over 15, and only two handful of others sit above 10. The anti-Albert is Ivan Rodriguez (-5.3), fellow senior citizen Omar Vizquel (-4.58) sits in “second”, fellow “pudge” Yuniesky Betancourt (-4.09), and Jeff Francouer (-4.06) round out players with -4 or less WPA.

Pujols also leads the league in wOBA (.442) and wRAA, and wRC, and basically everything that matters. Chipper Jones (.438) is second and the rest of the top five includes David Oritz (.438), Alex Rodriguez (.421), and Matt Holliday (.420). Following our theme of the good and the bad, the bottom five are Omar Vizquel (.295), Jason Kendall (.298), Pedro Feliz (.303), Yuniesky Betancourt (.307), and Khalil Greene (.308).

Some other offensive stats:

BB%
Best: Pat Burrell (17.7%), Adam Dunn (17.2%), Jim Thome (17.1%), Ortiz (16.5%), Todd Helton (16.1%)
Worst: Betancourt (2.9%), Bengie Molina (3.6%), I. Rodriguez (3.8%), Jose Lopez (4%), A.J. Pierzynski (4.2%)

K%
Best: Juan Pierre (5.7%), Placido Polanco (6.2%), Betancourt (8.9%), Kendall (9.1%), B. Molina (9.4%)
Worst: Ryan Howard (33.5%), Dunn (32.7%), Thome (30%), Bill Hall (29.6%), Mike Cameron (28.3%)

BABIP
Best: Derek Jeter (.367), Holliday (.365), C. Jones (.361), Ichiro Suzuki (.359), Miguel Cabrera (.353)
Worst: Andruw Jones (.255), Pedro Feliz (.261), Ken Griffey Jr. (.272), Greene (.273), Kevin Millar (.275)

LD%
Best: Mark Loretta (25.3%), Michael Young (24.8%), Freddy Sanchez (24.7%), Helton (23.7%), Chone Figgins (23.2%)
Worst: Gary Matthews Jr. (15.9%), Feliz (16%), Dan Uggla (16.1%), Luis Castillo (16.2%), Jason Bay (16.3%)

O-Swing%
Best: Castillo (12.9%), Brian Giles (14.8%), Bobby Abreu (15.7%), Troy Glaus (15.9%), C. Jones (16.2%)
Worst: Vladimir Guerrero (43.9%), Pierzynski (39.1%), I. Rodriguez (38.5%), Alfonso Soriano (37.3%), B. Molina (36.7%)

Contact%
Best: Pierre (94.5%), Castillo (94%), Polanco (93.6%), B. Giles (92.7%), Vizquel (91.9%)
Worst: Howard (66.4%), Thome (71.3%), Dunn (71.4%), A. Jones (72.1%), Brad Hawpe (72.3%)

Dollars
Best: Pujols ($100), Chase Utley ($93.1), David Wright ($84.5), Grady Sizemore ($81.3), Alex Rodriguez ($81.2)
Worst: Griffey Jr. ($0.8), Melky Cabrera ($1.8), Millar ($3.1), Jose Bautista ($3.5), Craig Biggio ($3.7)

Try using the leaderboards yourself to look at the last three years of defensive and pitching performances.

The CHONE Projections are now up in the player pages, the projections section, and you can get a customized player list of projections using the MyTeam feature.

Huge thanks to Sean Smith for allowing us to post the projections again this year and don’t forget to check out baseballprojection.com to see any player’s projection in more detail.

At some point, one has to feel bad for the Baltimore Orioles. 2009 was never going to be a year where they competed for a playoff berth, but last year the American League East had four of the five best teams in the AL. Now a few of those teams have added the likes of Mark Teixeira, C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Pat Burrell, John Smoltz, and Brad Penny. If that’s not bad enough, the Orioles rotation might look something like this:

Jeremy Guthrie (403 career IP, 4.58 FIP)
Mark Hendrickson (977.6 career IP, 4.5 FIP)
Garrett Olson (165 career IP, 5.28 FIP)
Koji Uehara
Radhames Liz (109 career IP, 6.08 FIP)

Yeah…that doesn’t appear particularly pretty, does it? Well, their other options include Brian Bass and Brian Burres. Applaud the Orioles for not rushing their pitching prospects, but 2009 is going to be anything but fun for their rotation. Is it possible that this could be the worst rotation in recent memory? Over the past five years, the worst rotations, as told by FIP are:

2008 Orioles 5.38
2007 Nationals 5.45
2006 Royals 5.50
2005 Royals 5.07
2004 Devil Rays 5.27

The average FIP of the four O’s starters is 5.11, yes it’s an extremely rough estimate since we’re not taking innings into account and we’re assuming nobody improves or declines. Uehara becomes the wild card. Keith Law notes that Uehara and Camden Yards are not a good mix due to Uehara’s homerun tendencies. At the same time, Uehara walks next to none, less than 1.2 per nine in his Nippon career. Law notes the same concerns with Hideki Irabu, Tomo Ohka, and Kei Igawa. Their career FIPs are 4.97, 4.46, and 6.19 respectively.

The Orioles also have interest in Braden Looper and Tim Redding, so while they might have the worst rotation in baseball next season, odds are, they won’t even be as poor as 2008’s edition.

One of my more peculiar fascinations is with the first pitch of at bats. Specifically, I seem to pay an inordinate amount of attention to players and teams that swing at the first pitch more or less often than you would expect. With the pitch-by-pitch database that I happen to have, it is actually a trivial exercise to extract that information, so for tonight I decided to take a look at the first pitch on a team level for 2008.

Namely, I wanted to investigate the percentage of first pitches that a given team swung at. For additional context, I included that team’s walk rate under the theory that you would expect some negative correlation between how often a team swung at the first pitch and how often they drew a walk. The difference between the two is included as the final column with a positive difference expressing that the team drew more walks than expected.

Despite the promising sign of the top and bottom teams matching up perfectly, the dataset (limited as it is to just 30 data points) shows little correlation.

However, visual inspection reveals a possible pattern. It looks like a majority of the teams do follow a roughly a linear pattern between not offering at the first pitch and drawing walks, there might be two clumps perpendicular to the hypothetical trend line. There are two teams (Seattle and Pittsburgh) that took first pitches often but didn’t translate those into walks and a clump of six teams (Atlanta, Texas, Tampa, Chicago(N), St.Louis and Cincinnati) that drew walks at an above average pace despite offering at the first pitch more often than average.

Is there something (like a higher or lower percentage of free-swinging, high-slugging hitters) about the make up of the teams in those two groups that helped distinguish them from the other 22 teams, who show a correlation of 0.78 between the two axes? In part two, we’ll add in some data from past years to get a bigger sample size and if the pattern holds, see if we cannot tease out a possible explanation.

Earlier this offseason, Roy Oswalt expressed interest in restructuring his contract in order to allow GM Ed Wade to effectively explore the free agent market. Owner Drayton McClane did not allow this to happen but it presented an interesting scenario nonetheless. The MLBPA does not allow players to take paycuts, per se, but restructuring deals are still fair game. Then again, the restructuring needs to be done carefully so as to avoid any type of “wrongdoing” to the player.

For instance, if a player is owed $10 mil/yr for four seasons, he may be able to restructure his contract so that he makes just $6 mil in years three and four. In exchange for earning lesser money in those contracted seasons, the player could receive another year on the deal, an option built in, or even the “lost” money deferred after the original contract normally would have expired.

I bring this up only because, while Oswalt did not get to restructure his deal with the Astros, Ned Colletti was able to restructure the ugly contract given to Andruw Jones. Jones signed a 2-yr/$36.2 mil deal prior to last season and proceeded to put up sub-Michael Bourn numbers in limited action.

With Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier guaranteed starting spots, Juan Pierre realistically staying put, and the club’s desire to re-sign Manny Ramirez, Jones has no spot on the team. He asked the Dodgers to trade him this offseason, but being owed ~$22 mil in salary and bonuses is anything but appetizing for teams. Why would they want to pay Manny Ramirez money for someone who just put up 1/8 of that caliber of production?

According to Cot’s Contracts, an absolutely invaluable website for anything and everything contract-related, the restructured contract will see up to $12 mil of his remaining money deferred over the next six seasons, without interest. Jones’ original deal was backloaded to begin with, and the new contract will save the Dodgers plenty of money this season. It also turns Jones from a high-risk/medium-reward player into a low or medium-risk/medium-reward player, given that he will be owed so little money. And, assuming the team releases Jones, allowing another to sign him for a $1 mil or less deal, he is very low risk with the potential for very high reward.

The Braves have reportedly expressed interest, but it will be extremely interesting to see what happens with a very cheap Andruw Jones given the circumstances of the current outfield market. Does Andruw Jones at $600K after being released make someone like Abreu seem less worthy than the $9-10 mil he may have to settle for? Does it make no difference? Regardless, Andruw Jones will no longer play for the Dodgers, but the situation looks like it was handled well, as his production in no may merited the original fee, but the contract will not be an albatross or deterrent to other teams.

With Trevor Hoffman signing a one year contract today (fairly rare for a free agent closer), we’re presented with an opportunity to measure just how much teams are willing to pay for the proven closer label.

For instance, let’s compare Hoffman with a very similar non-closer who also signed a one year deal earlier this winter.

BB/9, 2005 to 2008:

Hoffman: 1.87, 1.86, 2.35, 1.79
Not Hoffman: 1.97, 2.00, 2.10, 1.66

From a practical standpoint, there’s no difference in their walk rates.

K/9, 2005 to 2008:

Hoffman: 8.43, 7.14, 6.91, 9.13
Not Hoffman: 5.92, 8.33, 7.97, 7.51

Slight edge to Hoffman here, but not a huge one. We’re talking about half a strikeout per nine innings, or about five to six per year. Very marginal difference.

HR/9, 2005 to 2008:

Hoffman: .47, .86, .31, 1.59
Not Hoffman: .49, .94, .89, 1.66

Again, a slight advantage to Hoffman, but not a big one, especially when park effects are included. And this is what we’d expect, given that they’re almost equal in flyball rates – Hoffman is at 45.5% FB% since 2002, and Not Hoffman is at 45.2%.

Overall, their skill sets are extremely similar. Both are experienced good command flyball guys who miss bats and are slightly HR prone. Both have long track records of success. Both took one year contracts to move to new clubs this winter.

Trevor Hoffman got $6 million, and could earn up to $7.5 million if he pitches well. Bob Howry, our Not Hoffman for this exercise, got $2.75 million, and could earn up to $3.65 million if he pitches well. Hoffman got, essentially, twice as much money for the same skills because he comes with the proven closer label.

Even in a depressed economic market, the closer markup is still ridiculous.

Not long after claiming the World Series title, the Philadelphia Phillies organization added a group of prospects to its 40-man roster, including pitchers Carlos Carrasco, Drew Naylor, and Sergio Escalona, as well as catcher Joel Naughton.

Carrasco has been near the top of the Phillies’ prospect list since recovering from a brutal 2005 season. The 21-year-old began the 2008 season in Double-A and held his own by allowing 109 hits in 114.2 innings of work. He posted rates of 3.53 BB/9 and 8.56 K/9, with a FIP of 4.11. Promoted to Triple-A towards the end of the season, Carrasco allowed 37 hits in 36.2 innings and posted rates of 3.19 BB/9 and 11.29 K/9. He did a better job of keeping the ball down and allowed just one home run in Triple-A, after allowing 13 in Double-A. Carrasco’s phone number should be on General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr.’s speed dial in 2009 for when the club tires of Adam Eaton and/or Kyle Kendrick.

Naylor had a breakout 2008 season after spending the previous two seasons in short-season ball. Beginning the year in A-ball, the Australian hurler allowed 69 hits in 87.1 innings of work and posted rates of 2.16 BB/9 and 10.00 K/9. His K/BB ratio was 4.62. Naylor, 22, did not fare as well in High-A ball and allowed 86 hits in 78 innings. The right-hander posted rates of 3.58 BB/9 and 6.81 K/9, with a K/BB ratio of just 1.90. His FIP went from 2.99 to 4.29. He should start 2009 back in High-A ball but could move up quickly if he rights himself. Naylor has an 88-92 mph fastball, curveball and developing change-up.

Escalona, a southpaw, was added to the 40-man roster after a fast-moving season that saw him begin in A-ball and end in Double-A. He recovered nicely from a poor 2007 season, in which he allowed 91 hits in 70.1 innings over three minor league levels as a starter. The 24-year-old reliever started 2008 by allowing 36 hits in 44.2 innings with rates of 3.63 BB/9 and 12.09 K/9. He also allowed just one home run. Promoted to Double-A, Escalona allowed 27 hits in 24.1 innings and posted rates of 5.18 BB/9 and 10.73 K/9. His struggles should not be surprising given the two-level jump. Escalona’s slider makes him a good bet for a future LOOGY role after holding left-handed batters to a .188 average in 2008, compared to right-handers at .281. In his career, right-handed batters have hit .300 against him.

Naughton, like Naylor, is Australian. He was definitely the most surprising addition to the 40-man roster, especially given the presence of top hitting prospect Lou Marson. The club also has three Major League catchers (although they are all more second-string catchers than starters) in Chris Coste, Carlos Ruiz and Ronny Paulino. Naughton, 22, has spent the past two seasons in A-ball. In 2008, he hit .275/.336/.359 with an ISO of .083 in 276 at-bats. He also walked 8.9% of the time and struck out 14.1% of the time. The left-handed hitter has held his own against southpaws in his career (.244 average versus .264 against RHPs) but he has not been allowed to face many: 131 career at-bats versus left-handers, 569 at-bats versus right-handers. Naughton will likely use up all his options before he is ready for the Majors.

Outfielder John Mayberry Jr. was also added to the 40-man roster for the first time after being acquired from Texas for fellow outfield prospect Greg Golson. Both players were also former first round draft picks (Mayberry 19th overall in 2005 out of Stanford University, Golson 21st overall out of a Texas high school). Both outfielders are basically Major-League ready. Golson is more athletic, with tons of raw potential. Mayberry, 25, is less athletic and is close to being a one-dimensional, offensive player with above-average power. In a sense, he’s almost a younger Pat Burrell, whom the Phillies recently lost to free agency. The signing of free agent Raul Ibanez, formerly of Seattle, makes it unlikely that Mayberry will begin 2009 in Philadelphia. It’s unfortunate that his Major League progress will be hindered by the likes of Ibanez, Geoff Jenkins, and Matt Stairs.

According to Rosenthal, the Brewers have signed Trevor Hoffman to a one year, $6 million contract for 2009. Hoffman will go to Milwaukee to replace the retired Salomon Torres as the closer for the Brew Crew, leaving the west coast for an opportunity to be the 9th inning guy on a contender.

How much does Hoffman have left, though? At 41-years-old and with an average fastball of 86 MPH, he’s clearly going to be blowing anyone away at this point. He still relies on an excellent change-up that’s been his bread and butter for his whole career, and while his strikeout rate remained as good as ever last year, he was victimized by a lot of long balls that could spell some trouble for his future.

As with most soft-tossers, Hoffman is one of the most extreme flyball pitchers in baseball. Nearly half of his balls in play go in the air, which is the main reason that he’s been able to run a career .280 BABIP – flyballs get turned into outs a lot more often than groundballs. Combined with his excellent command, this has allowed Hoffman to keep people off the bases and rack up the saves.

However, there’s a big difference between being an extreme flyball pitcher in Petco Park and in Miller Park, which will be his new home. While Petco suppressed home runs by 14%, Miller Park inflates them by 6%. San Diego is heaven for extreme flyball guys like Hoffman, and leaving the friendly confines of that huge outfield could present some problems for him.

His CHONE projection for 2009 has him at a 4.17 ERA in a neutral park. In Miller Park, that’s probably more like 4.30 to 4.40. Given that, it’s tough see Hoffman being better than a +1 win pitcher this year. I’m betting that this isn’t going to work out as well as Milwaukee would have hoped, and they’ll be right back in the market for a closer again next winter.