Players classified with the Type A tag are generally the big boys, the cream of the crop. These players are all amongst the top of their respective positions and tend to command larger and more lucrative contracts. The team signing a Type A free agent loses a draft pick, depending on its slot in the draft, which goes to the team losing the newly-signed player. Yesterday, we took a look at the three remaining Type A relief pitchers on the market. Naturally, the next step is to look at the available Type A starting pitchers.

CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett signed with the Yankees, removing them from this post. Both project nicely though Burnett has had an unhealthy injury history. With both of these pitchers off the market, just four Type A starting pitchers remain free agents: Derek Lowe, Oliver Perez, Andy Pettitte, and Ben Sheets.

Lowe has been discussed here time and time again. He will be 36 years old halfway through the 2009 season but has been the most durable and consistent of this bunch. The Mets have a 3-yr/$36 mil offer on the table that he and agent Scott Boras all but scoffed at. Lowe is seeking closer to $16 mil/yr which may be unrealistic given the current market heavily favoring the buyers. With a projection calling for a 3.67 FIP in 185 innings, Lowe would be worth +3.5 wins in 2009.

Assuming a dropoff of -0.6 wins each season, then Lowe would be worth near +8.7 wins over the life of a 3-yr deal. If the current dollars per win rate is $4.8 mil/win, and 10% inflation occurs over the next few seasons, then Lowe would be worth +3.5 wins at $16.8 mil in 2009; +2.9 wins at $15.4 mil in 2010; and +2.3 wins at $13.4 mil in 2011. All told, that is $45.5 mil, and he is seeking somewhere closer to a 3-yr/$48 mil deal. As was mentioned in earlier posts, once negotiations are ended, I fully expect Lowe to sign for about 3-yr/$45 mil, which would properly value his projected contributions.

Andy Pettitte has a similar projection to that of Lowe’s, calling for a 3.75 FIP in 187 innings. Pettitte recently rejected the 1-yr/$10 mil offer from the Yankees, as he does not want to receive a salary lower than the $16 mil he made in 2008. Perhaps the Yanks will up their offer but Pettitte has flirted with retirement before, and it would not be terribly shocking to see him call it quits if he cannot receive the “right” offer.

Anyways, a 3.75 FIP in 187 innings would place him around +3.3 wins. Properly valuing his contributions would result in a 1-yr/$15.8 mil deal. Basically, Pettitte deserves the same salary relative to his projected production. Given the Yankees payroll and the fact that he would be a significant upgrade over someone like Ian Kennedy, it just makes sense to sign him to this deal. Will it happen, though? Who knows. Probably not.

Oliver Perez seems to be the odd man out of this group, not just because he is the only pitcher of the four under 30 years old, but also because he projects to be worth under three wins. Using FIP, Perez looks like a 4.60 pitcher in 180 innings. This would deem him +1.6 wins. Even if we amend the FIP to be closer to his projected ERA of 4.30, he is merely average, at +2.1 wins. Perez is not anywhere in the vicinity of Sandy Koufax, as Scott Boras has claimed, but he does have value. A 3-yr/$28 mil deal would make sense for Ollie, though I can see that deal upping itself to 3-yr/$36 mil when Lowe inevitably signs his 3-yr/$45 mil contract.

Lastly, that leaves Ben Sheets, arguably the most talented of the group albeit the most oft-injured. At 30 years old, Sheets is still relatively young, but he has proven to be very brittle. When healthy, he is a dominant force, but the caveat beginning this sentence should speak volumes towards his durability. In any regard, his projection calls for a 3.60 FIP in 180 innings, placing him around +3.4 wins. While Pettitte and Lowe are durable enough to garner 3-yr deals and Perez is young enough to merit a similarly lengthed deal, a more responsibly GM would offer Sheets a 2-yr deal with options that automatically vest due to playing time.

I could see a team like the Rangers signing him to a 2-yr/$28 mil deal with a third and even fourth year option. Again, he might be the most talented, but his resume does not necessarily make decision makers eager to dish out large sums of money over extended periods of time. Later on, we will look at the Type A free agent hitters available.

It is easy, and comfortable for some of us including myself, to frequently talk about numbers in isolation, but sometimes I enjoy taking a step back and fitting things into a real life model that I hope anyone can relate to. One such issue that I was bantering about with fellow analyst, Graham MacAree, is how to put super valuable players into context. It’s easy to talk about Albert Pujols being worth so-and-so many wins, and the introduction of win-based stats is a boom for relating complex mathematical analysis to casual fans, but sometimes even that is not enough to get the story across.

Barry Bonds posted possibly the two most valuable seasons ever in baseball history back to back in 2001 and 2002. Bonds was worth 14 wins in 2002, garnering 116 runs above average with his bat and 10.5 with his glove. FanGraphs BIS data doesn’t cover 2001, so we cannot fully attest to his fielding back then, but given his numbers over 2002-3, it strikes me as safe to assume 2001 was around that level as well. Bonds’ increased plate appearances that year helped his bat be about eight or so runs more valuable than 2002, so Bonds was probably pushing 15 wins in 2001. That’s an mind numbing number on its own, but I think it helps to establish one more piece of information.

In logical practice, the least possible valuable member of a team would be a DH that couldn’t hit. Sort of like Jose Vidro this past season. But let us take it further than that and replace Jose Vidro with something that has a bit better running speed, like a papaya. Assuming the worst, that an umpire would simply call any pitch a strike, our new DH would post a Jason Bergmann line of .000/.000/.000. If he racked up 600 PAs, the papaya would be worth a fabulous 177 runs below average with its’ bat. It would incur a 17.5 run penalty for playing DH, and be gifted 20 runs for replacement level. All told, it would equal about negative 17 wins.

Taking it up to a spec of realism, the average pitcher in 2008 posted a .174 wOBA. Over 600 PAs, that would be 86 runs below average. So if you took the average pitcher and made him a full time DH, he would have been worth around negative 8 wins.

You could take 2001 and 2002-circa Barry Bonds and pair him with either a single papaya (or inanimate object of your choosing), or a couple of average pitchers slotted as DHs (ignoring the impossibility of that for a second), and you would still come out around replacement level. That is some kind of value.

A flurry of moves took place yesterday, with Pat Burrell joining the Rays, Milton Bradley signing with the Cubs, and Jason Giambi going back to Oakland. With all of this activity it was very easy to miss the news that Phillies reliever J.C. Romero received a 50-game suspension after testing positive for a banned substance. Conflicting stories emerged, as did a plethora of opinions regarding whether or not the suspension was unfair.

Romero, a key component of the Phillies bullpen, claims that he bought a supplement from a GNC store in New Jersey over the summer. The supplement in question was not banned at the time of his purchase, yet made it onto a revised list issued a bit later on. He tested positive in September but took the case to arbitration, enabling him to remain eligible for post-season play.

The arbitrator shot down Romero’s claim and ruled he was guilty of negligence. This will ultimately cost Romero 50 games and $1.25 mil.

Thanks to Will Carroll, who wrote about the supplement in question, we have some new information which may or may not remove the sympathetic feelings one may develop towards Romero. From Will’s recent post:

According to multiple sources (and also reported by the Philadelphia Inquirer), Romero tested positive for 6-OXO Extreme, a product that enhances testosterone production in ways very similar to anabolic steroids. While legal and still available at your local GNC, 6-OXO Extreme* has always carried a warning that it could result in positive tests.

Unfortunately for Romero, 6-OXO is a product developed by a company owned by Patrick Arnold, the primary supplier of THG to Balco. And, according to Will’s post, the substance that tested positive was androstenedione, which may conjure up images of Mark McGwire in your mind.

My feeling is that, if Romero did in fact break the rules, he deserves to be punished. Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. feels the same way, as his recent statement seemingly backed major league baseball as opposed to his own supposedly wronged player. Ouch. This case, however, features some extenuating circumstances, as Romero did buy the product prior to its banning.

And, on top of that, while newer bottles display a warning that the supplement may cause positive drug tests, the bottle presented by J.C. in his hearing did not. It really feels like he is getting jobbed here, or made an example of. Perhaps he should never have bought the supplement, but if it was legal at the time of the purchase, and the purchase date can be proven, 50-games seems very excessive. Then again, the MLBPA did issue a revised list that apparently did show OXO-6 as banned.

I’m a bit torn here. This seems like an excessive punishment given the case presented by Romero, but it really seems like he could have exercised a bit more caution. Then again, he did speak to several different sources that cleared the supplement as safe. Either the Phillies training staff needs to be re-evaluated or Romero is receiving unfair treatment. After all, he spoke with just about everyone on his team whose job is to ensure this does not happen, and yet it did happen.

Do I feel bad that he is suspended 50 games for something that realistically should not have happened, given the circumstances? Yeah, and doubly so since I’m a Phillies fan. Double-checking with your training staff is a good start, but still, there have to be other people to get second, third, and fourth opinions from when the consequences involve 50-game suspensions and $1.25 mil fines. Especially when I can read a Rob Neyer article, click a link, and discover that this supplement has andro.

These things should not happen, from the perspectives of Romero, the training staff, and the MLBPA.

Yesterday, we saw Milton Bradley go to Chicago and Pat Burrell land in Tampa Bay. In general, Cubs fans and Rays fans are happy with their new acquisitions, and both teams are viewing their shiny new hitters as potentially the missing piece that could put them over the top.

You know who can’t be happy about those deals, though? Bobby Abreu, and to a lesser extent, Adam Dunn. The ceiling has been firmly established for offense first corner outfielders (non-Manny Ramirez category), and it’s much lower than it has been in past seasons. There’s not going to be a Carlos Lee type deal out there for Dunn, and Abreu won’t be able to pull in J.D. Drew type money. They’re going to have to take dramatic pay cuts in order to find a team willing to employ them.

The teams that were expected to be in the market for power bats were Tampa Bay, Oakland, Seattle, Anaheim, the Yankees, the Cubs, Atlanta, and maybe Washington. The Rays got Burrell, the A’s got Matt Holiday and Jason Giambi, the Mariners signed Russell Branyan, the Yankees signed Mark Teixeira, and the Cubs signed Bradley. That leaves the Angels, Nationals, and maybe the Mariners as teams who could potentially still be interested in a left-handed power hitter with questionable defense.

Washington seems to make the most sense for Adam Dunn – he knows Jim Bowden from his days with the Reds, his best friend in the world is Austin Kearns, and the Nats are reportedly looking for a first baseman, since they don’t want to count on either Nick Johnson or Dmitri Young for 2009 and beyond. Dunn has experience at first base and would probably be willing to move there for a full time job and a decent contract. But considering that the rumored offer from Washington for Bradley was 3/30, it’s unlikely that they’d go higher than that for Dunn, especially in a market where he doesn’t have too many other obvious fits. Would Dunn settle for a contract in the 2/20 range? He might have to, because while he is younger than Burrell, they are comparable players, and his options are quickly dwindling.

Let’s assume Dunn does end up in Washington. That leaves Abreu trying to convince the Braves, Angels, and Mariners to start a bidding war for his services. None of them seem particularly interested, though. The Angels brought back Juan Rivera, which gives them four players to rotate through the OF/DH spots. The Mariners are bagain shopping, picking up the likes of Branyan and Chris Shelton, and kicking the tires on Jerry Hairston. Neither of them seem likely to offer up a high eight figures deal for an aging outfielder. That leaves the Braves as the best fit for Abreu – they know him from his time in Philadelphia, they’ve got a narrow window of contention, and they’ve got the payroll room to pay him. But with some intriguing outfield prospects coming, they’re not going to want to give out a long term deal. Abreu might be forced to settle for a one year contract from Atlanta if he wants anything close to $10 million for the 2009 season, which still represents a 33% paycut over his 2008 salary.

2/20 for Adam Dunn and 1/10 for Bobby Abreu? At the end of the season, those guys would have scoffed at numbers like that, but that might be the best case scenario for Dunn and Abreu now.

Since the season ended, most people have assumed that Jason Giambi was going to end up back in Oakland. They needed some power in their line-up, even after the Matt Holiday acquisition, and Giambi enjoyed his greatest success as a player during his first stint in the Bay Area. The steroids stuff from a few years ago made him something of a pariah among many teams and fans, and his near replacement level performance in 2007 didn’t help his image at all. There just weren’t many teams interested in Giambi, so the presumption was that he’d have to take pretty much whatever Billy Beane offered him.

After seeing Buster Olney’s report of the terms of the deal that seems to be pretty much what happened. Here’s how the deal would break down in terms of valuing Giambi as a player if the rumored terms are true.

$5.25 million base salary in 2009, $1.25 million buyout of 2010 option or $4 million base salary in 2010.

Based on a $4.5 million per win estimate of the going rate for free agents, that would value Giambi as a 1.45 win player for 2009. However, the low salary base (with incentives, surely) for 2010 makes the buyout pretty unlikely to be exercised unless Giambi pulls an Andruw Jones. In reality, the deal is probably more like $11 million over two years, with an out clause for the A’s if Giambi is just unbelievably awful. That values Giambi at something closer to a 1.2 win player.

Giambi’s actual win values, by year, the last three years:

2006: 3.4
2007: 0.5
2008: 2.6

That’s a weighted average of 2.1 wins per year, and he missed half of the ’07 season. His new deal values him at nearly half of his three year weighted average win value. Even factoring in age related decline and a move to DH, that’s some pretty serious discounting. There’s almost no downside to this deal for the A’s – they picked up a +1.5 to +2 win player for 75 cents on the dollar, and if he bombs, it has no long term repercussions.

With Holliday and Giambi joining the organization, the A’s have significantly improved their offense for 2009. The question will be sorting out all the at-bats for the various 1B/DH types, but the depth makes it much more likely that Oakland has an offense that can score some runs next year. The A.L. West continues to tighten.

The Washington Nationals have taken swings at two free agent sluggers and have yet to make contact. General Manager Jim Bowden ended 2008 watching Mark Teixeira sign with the New York Yankees for less money, and despite a reportedly similar offer on the table, Bowden brings in 2009 with the loss of Milton Bradley. The Nationals will now decide whether to take a run at another free agent, or instead maintain building through the draft and cost efficient additions.

Rumors about Bowden and Adam Dunn will be the buzz until Dunn signs. Familiarity derives from the duo’s time in Cincinnati. Of course, Manny Ramirez is still out there along with Bobby Abreu, but none of them should be overly appealing to the Nationals. Remember, the Nationals will have the first overall pick along with the tenth pick – assuming they fail to sign Aaron Crow – in June’s draft. Before they attempt to sign any heavily priced free agents, they need to commit to drafting and signing the best available talent, otherwise reorganize their priorities.

Admittedly, Dunn (or whomever) is easier to sell to a disgruntled fan base as a sign of commitment. Selling the brand is important, and part of that is establishing players as “Nationals”, still yet, the long-term health of the franchise will weigh heavier on the draft selections than whomever the Nationals decide to sign.

59 wins earned the Nationals the worst record in baseball. Even if we assume some progression from the youngsters along with some better health, that leaves them on the wrong end of .500. Dunn, Abreu, and Ramirez all share poor fielding, and the Nationals currently have about a trillion outfielders on their roster. 1+2 does not equal 4 which makes this even more puzzling. Here’s a look at how Dunn stacks up to Willie Harris, the Nats incumbent left fielder.

Harris: -4.4 batting runs, 19.1 fielding runs, 14.1 replacement adjustment, -3.3 positional. 3.4 wins.

Dunn: 28.6 batting runs, -22.8 fielding runs, 21.7 replacement adjustment, -8 positional. 1.9 wins.

Of course, Harris had a career year and is unlikely to reach those heights again, but he’s also being paid 1.5 million. Even if Dunn takes a Pat Burrell-esque 2/16 deal, Dunn will have to be 1.25 wins better than Harris to be worth the difference. This is without noting Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge, both of whom who should be playing, Austin Kearns, Josh Willingham, Nick Johnson, Wily Mo Pena, and the minor league outfielders the Nationals have signed.

The decision to sign a corner outfielder/first baseman type just doesn’t seem like a smart allocation of assets for the Nationals. Long-term, investing the money into young talent is a better solution than an unsustainable boost in jersey and ticket sales.

A player gets classified as a Type A free agent if, when he hits the open market, he falls in the top twenty percent at his position. Unlike Type B free agents, who, when signed, produce a supplementary pick for the team losing the player not at the expense of the signing team, Type A free agents cost the signing team when it comes to the draft. Continuing our look at the remaining players on the free agent market, we will now turn to the Type A relief pitchers. Five such relievers fit this bill, of whom two have already signed.

Brian Fuentes signed a 2-yr deal with the Angels with a third year option that will trigger as long as he remains the closer for both years. That may be tough given the dual presences of Scot Shields and Jose Arredondo, but his signing did not cost the Angels much for performance that will not be a terrible dropoff to that of K-Rod. Rodriguez is the other Type A reliever to sign, when he inked a 3-yr/$36 mil deal with the Mets. This leaves three such relievers available.

Two of these pitchers, Trevor Hoffman and Russ Springer, could be members of the AARP. The other, Juan Cruz, comes in ten years their junior.

Hoffman, 41, is coming off of a relative down season. Sure, he is the leader in saves for a career, but one has to wonder how much left he has in the tank. His projection calls for 54 innings at around a 3.50 FIP. Plugging his projected runs allowed into the formula used to determine relievers value above replacement, Hoffman amounts to a .612 pitcher in a .451 league. Taking the difference, multiplying by innings pitched, and dividing by nine pegs Trevor as worth +0.97 wins next season. The leverage of these innings must be taken into account as well.

A closer will generally hover between LIs of 1.80 and 2.30, meaning Hoffman could be worth anywhere from +1.75 to +1.95 wins next season. At 41 years old, Hoffman could still command $8.5 to $9.5 mil at fair market value. Given his age and the performance decline in 2008 as well as the market favoring the buyers, I could see him signing a one-year deal in the $6 mil range, but nothing more. He might want another year to go out on top, but overvaluing him for career accomplishments would be a mistake.

His geriatric counterpart, Russ Springer, 40, has experienced tremendous success over the last two seasons as a member of the Cardinals. He has also been a workhorse over the last four seasons, with 62, 72, 76, and 70 appearances, respectively. In 2005 and 2006, Springer posted FIPs of 4.39 and 4.79, before a vast improvement to 2.83 in 2007 and 3.51 in 2008. His ERAs have improved as well, from 4.73 in 2005 to 2.32 in 2008.

Springer’s projection calls for a 3.42 FIP in 55 innings pitched. Plugging his numbers into the reliever formula places Springer at a winning percentage of .621. In a .451 league, this makes Springer a +1.05 win pitcher. Factoring in his inning leverage and Springer bumps up to +1.3 wins. Many teams have interest in Russ, and they should, given that he projects to be as valuable as, say, Ryan Madson was for the Phillies this past season. He might not receive a multi-year deal, but for one season at $4 or $5 mil, Springer could definitely strengthen a team’s bullpen.

That leaves just Juan Cruz, 30, who is coming off of three straight solid seasons. His ERA has improved from 4.18 to 3.10 to 2.61, with an FIP improvement from 4.09 to 3.70 to 3.62. We pretty much know what to expect from Cruz, given his recent track record: around 60-65 innings with a 3.30 ERA and 3.70 FIP. This makes Cruz a .623 pitcher. In a .451 league, he is worth around +1.2 wins. With leverage factored in, this bumps up to around +1.35 wins. At only 30, he should receive a multi-year deal, and the value may surpass that of Jeremy Affeldt’s, given the level of importance placed on bullpens, Cruz’s track record, and the fact that few relievers of his caliber are available. He is not necessarily a game changer, but he definitely helps a relief corps.

In a buyer’s market like the one we are currently witnessing, these three solid relievers could be had for much lesser than they would have signed for in other years. Expect to see a plethora of teams interested in Springer and Cruz, with Hoffman either going back to San Diego or signing on somewhere else for one last hoorah.

Milton Bradley and the Cubs have agreed in principle to a three year, $30 million contract sources indicate. How does this signing rate?

For one, it comes at the same time as the Rays nabbing Pat Burrell on a fantastic contract which should have helped depress the market a bit for players of Bradley’s ilk. First of all, Bradley is a fantastic hitter, capable of being worth around 40 runs over average per 600 PAs. Now, we shouldn’t and won’t project Bradley to hit that well, but he has shown in the past that his ceiling is around that mark. He’s also an above average fielder (though not by much). Those are the good bits.

The bad bit is that 600 PAs is not going to happen. It’s never happened before and it’s extremely unlikely to happen starting at age 31. Here’s a list of Milton Bradley’s games played in the outfield over the years, and as a percentage of total games played

Until 2008, Bradley has been devoted to playing the outfield, and in a vast majority of those years, he has suffered from injury. He has logged over 100 games in the field just once, 2004, his entire career. As an outfielder, Bradley could potentially still play center field and be adequate, or be above average in a corner slot. All in all, giving him a neutral rating for defense and position is a safe enough projection. It’s likely to be within five or so runs of his final tally. As a hitter, his projection is for about 25 runs over average per 600 PAs. Add in 20 runs for replacement, and you have yourself a 4.5 win player, exceedingly valuable and worth $20 million a year on a one-year deal, $18 million on a multi-year.

The problem is that as an outfielder, there is little justification for projecting more than 300-400 PAs per year from Bradley, and even that strikes me as potentially too optimistic. As a DH, we could have been more optimistic and looked at him as close to a full time hitter. Then again, as a DH, Bradley would lose around 20 runs worth of defensive value so the increase in playing time would have to immense to make it worth it. Of course, Bradley cannot DH now that he has signed with a National League team, so outfield it is. Given that we have to chop his projected value in half. Coincidentally, or not, that leaves us with almost an exact match to Bradley’s contract, meaning that for the value that you expect Bradley to provide, the Cubs appear to be correctly factoring in his health concerns.

That’s not to let them completely off the hook though, because there’s still the matter of what to do with the other 300 PAs while Bradley is on the disabled list and ignores that in order to clear payroll room for Bradley, the Cubs markedly undersold on Mark DeRosa, a player who, by the way, has been more valuable than Bradley each of the past three seasons and was signed for just $5.5 million and only through 2009.

Earlier today, we began our analysis of the eleven hitters classified as Type B free agents. Milton Bradley projected to be the most valuable of the initial six players, at +2.9 wins, while Griffey the Kid’s +0.10 win projection clocked in as the bleakest. Bradley also ended up the youngest of the group, as Garret Anderson, Moises Alou, Mark Grudzielanek, Luis Gonzalez, and Griffey are all pretty up there in the years department. That trend continues as the remaining five players are added to the mix.

Jeff Kent and Frank Thomas are both 41 years old, and Paul Lo Duca and Ivan Rodriguez are 37 years of age apiece. This leaves Juan Uribe, just 29, but who perhaps plays like an older declining player.

R.J. covered The Big Hurt this morning and wondered if his injury from a few years ago is the reason behind his decline last season, or if his power is simply gone. I would be more inclined to think he bounces back with the stick if given the opportunity in 2009. Maybe not back to the +2-3 win seasons produced in 2006-07, but his projection calls for around +1 wins. If a team can sign Thomas to a one-year deal under $5 mil, it would definitely be worth the risk.

His 41-yr old counterpart, Kent, is coming off of an injury-plagued season in which he realistically lost his job. With Blake DeWitt, James Loney, and Casey Blake all returning, Kent does not fit into the scheme of things for the Dodgers. He still has value, though, as prior to the injury suffered in 2008, his wOBA marks still made him quite effective. The same cannot be said for his defense at the keystone, though, which has consistently been worse than -10 runs for four years running. At +10 offense and -12 defense, Kent could be worth anywhere from +1.5 to +1.8 wins next year, depending on playing time. An $8-9 mil deal for a 41-yr old second baseman showing big signs of decline may not be realistic, but under the right circumstances, Jeff could still be right around a league average player.

Due to position scarcity and the adjustment he receives for playing time, Pudge may end up being the second most valuable player of this entire 11-man group. His offense is almost a win below average, but if we assume +3 run defense in 130 games and near 500 PA, Rodriguez comes out to +2.05 wins and $9.8 mil. Will he get a deal paying him close to $10 mil/yr? Who knows, but projected production level in 2009 makes the 37-yr old backstop worth that price.

This leaves Uribe and Lo Duca, the former of whom tops out at +1 win as a shortstop and a bit lower at second base or third base. Lo Duca is nothing more than a backup catcher these days, but, in that role, he could be worth +0.80 wins. A team in need of a backup catcher with experience could do much worse than signing Paul to a 1-yr deal paying him $4 mil or under. He made $5 mil last season for the Nationals and Marlins. He is nowhere near an all-star anymore, but catchers with experience and some semblance of talent always have value.

All told, Bradley still ranks #1 at +2.9 wins, with Pudge in second at +2.05 wins, and Kent in third at +1.80 wins. They are Type B free agents for a reason, with that reason being that they fell out of the top twenty percent at their position in 2008, meaning these are not going to be elite players. Teams will not have to surrender a draft pick if they choose to sign any of these players, but this group is old, features some players who will or should retire, and doesn’t scream “sign me!” outside of perhaps Bradley. There are definitely a few Hall of Fame players in this mix, but they are at the very ends of their careers.

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Rays are close to finalizing a two year, $16 million contract with Pat Burrell. He’ll fill their hole at DH and give them a right-handed power bat to fit into the middle of their line-up and provide some offensive depth.

For Burrell, I’m pretty sure this is not what he had in mind heading into the winter. He made $14 million last season in the final year of a six year, $50 million contract, so he’s taking about a 43 percent pay cut and handing in his outfielder’s glove in order to get a full time job with a contender. The reshaping of this free agent economy is certainly going to be humbling for some players, especially outfielders with poor defensive abilities.

From Tampa’s perspective, they have to be pretty happy with how things have worked out. Always on a budget, they couldn’t break the bank for a true all-star caliber player, but needed to add another quality position player to try to stay ahead of Boston and New York. Is Burrell that player?

Over the last four years, he’s been pretty consistent offensively, posting park adjusted batting of +28, +21, +26, and +25 runs. Despite hot and cold streaks, Burrell’s generated similar offensive value in each of the last four seasons. By signing him up to DH, the Rays are removing the defensive penalty he brought to the field. It’s really the best fit for Burrell at this point in his career, and makes him fairly easy to evaluate going forward, as we won’t have to deal with the uncertainty surrounding defensive performance.

If we project Burrell as a +18 run hitter compared to league average (as Marcel does), that’s almost an exact fit for the -17.5 run position adjustment that comes with being a full time DH. Even with expected age related decline, Burrell’s going to be an average major league player. He should be worth right around two wins above a replacement level player.

Those two wins cost the Rays $8 million per year, or $4 million per win. This just continues the trend we’ve seen this off-season, as this shapes up to be the best buyer’s market in recent history. Based on his +2 win projection, we’d have expected Burrell to get something like 3 years and $30 million if this was a normal off-season, but the economy forced him to sign for a discount in order to solidify a job with a winner.

For only about $5 million more than they spent on Cliff Floyd in 2008, the Rays are able to add a power/patience bat to their line-up that should fit in well with their offense for 2009 and 2010. With the DH hole filled, it’s fair to say that the Rays have an average or better player at every single position on their roster right now. A very good team just got a little bit better.