Archive for January, 2009

Team Win Values

With the off-season in a holding pattern, let’s spend a little more time talking win values, shall we?

One of the questions that came up in a thread last week was how well team win values match up with actual wins. So, I wanted to spend some time on that issue. The first thing to remember is that our win values are context neutral, so we are not attempting to account for the distribution of runs in regards to the value of the situation. In the win value system, a run in the 3rd inning of a 10-0 beatdown is the same as a 9th inning walkoff that decides the winner. Because we’re presenting context neutral wins, teams that have a run scoring distribution skewed towards higher leverage situations will win more games than win values would suggest.

The Angels are the best example of this. Last year, they accumulated 17.2 wins from their position players and 22.0 wins from their pitchers for a total of +39.2 marginal wins. With our replacement level set at .28852 (or just round to .289) for ’08, that makes the Angels an 85.94 win team according to our system. Basically, we think they earned 86 context neutral wins last year. They actually won 100 games – 14 more than their win values would have suggested. Why? They were the Kings of Clutch, performing drastically better in situations that mattered than they did when the game wasn’t on the line.

If you’re familiar with the concept of Pythag Win%, you’ve seen this phenomenon before. Because there’s little to no evidence that the distribution of run scoring is a repeatable skill, we’re not including it in our win values, and will match up with pythag wins better than it will with actual wins. This is born out by the correlations of each.

Win Values to Pythag: .90
Win Values to Wins: .85

Win Values correlates very well with both pythag wins and actual wins, but better with pythag because of the run distribution issue that we talked about above. Clearly, though, our system of rating players is adding up very well at the team level, even without considering the context of when runs are scored.

This evening, we’ll take a look at the differences between win value projections and pythag expectations and explore why two projected win totals both based on runs scored and allowed would diverge.


Teahen’s Big Move

What’s a new baseball season without a Mark Teahen position switch? This time, as Sam Mellinger reports, Teahen will get a look at second base. Moving around the diamond is nothing new for Teahen, who broke into the majors as a third baseman and since has spent time at first base and each of the outfield positions.

On the surface, moving Teahen from the outfield to second makes some sense. The Royals have a cluster in the outfield with David DeJesus, Coco Crisp, and Jose Guillen, and with Guillen’s contract forcing him into the lineup, leaving little playing time for Teahen. Of course, at second the Royals have a bit of a jam as well: they only acquired Albert Collaspo last season and don’t forget about Willie Bloomquist.

Dave has beat the third and second base comparisons into our heads, so I won’t rehash his arguments, but instead question whether Teahen has any hope of being a decent second baseman. Teahen’s hot corner experience was a mixed bag; in 2005, his UZR was an atrocious -17.6, that number rebounded to a passable 0.3 in 2006, and after taking a year off from third, Teahen returned for 166 innings last season and had a UZR of -2.7. CHONE calls him a -11 fielder and The Fielding Bible has Teahen worth -24 runs between 2005 and 2007.

It’s safe to say that Teahen is an awful fielder a third. That provides little hope for a successful translation to second, at least defensively. CHONE has Teahen at 5.6 runs above average offensively and Marcels has him at 1 below. If Teahen is a league average hitter his bat will play up at second, meaning his value comes down to how well (or unwell) his glove translates to second.

This is the first sign of “innovative” thinking the Royals have shown this off-season, but frankly, the chances of success aren’t too high.


Casey No Longer At the Bat

Sean Casey never had exceptional talent, never carried a team to the World Series, and never finished higher than 14th in MVP voting, a feat he accomplished just once. Still, for 12 seasons, he averaged a tidy .302/.367/.447 line, good for an .353 wOBA. Nicknamed “The Mayor” for his affable personality and spirit, Casey seemed to take over the face of the franchise tag when Barry Larkin’s career ended. At 35 years old, and coming off of a ~200 PA season with the Boston Red Sox, Casey has decided to retire.

Drafted by the Indians in 1995, Casey would debut as a 22 yr old in 1997. He amassed just 10 PA for the Tribe that season, and found himself traded for Dave Burba prior to 1998’s opening day. His tenure in Cincinnati did not begin as he would have hoped, as Casey missed virtually the entire month of April. He also missed the equivalent of a month from May 20-June 21. Overall, as a rookie, Casey hit .272/.365/.417 in 96 games with a .345 wOBA.

In 1999, he experienced the opposite of a sophomore slump, when he made the all-star team and finished 14th in MVP voting. Casey hit a gaudy .332/.399/.539, a .938 OPS and .398 wOBA. The Mayor knocked 25 balls out of the park, fell three hits shy of 200, and produced 33 runs above average with the bat alone. His UZR is not available prior to 2002, but given the positive marks from 2002-04, it is safe to assume his reputation as a solid fielder was not ill-derived.

The following season his BABIP regressed a bit but Casey still posted a .315/.385/.517 line. His wOBA of .388 did not portend a true sense of falling off, but it would take Casey three more seasons before again matching this offensive output. In 2004, Casey hit 24 HR with a .389 wOBA in 146 games. Again, he earned a spot on the all-star roster.

His wOBA dropped to .349 in 2005, and in a cost-cutting mode, the Reds sent Casey to the Pirates in exchange for Dave Williams. Casey immediately became the face of Pittsburgh’s marketing campaigns, as he discussed the future of the team in commercials with Bill Mazeroski. His time in Pittsburgh was short-lived, though, and halfway through the season the Tigers acquired his services. In 53 Games for the World Series bound Tigers, Casey posted a putrid .272 wOBA. Coupled with league average fielding at first base, Casey fell below replacement level for the first time in his career.

The Tigers trotted him out as their first baseman in 2007, and in 143 games The Mayor produced +0.1 wins. It seemed clear that his years of effectiveness were far behind the former all-star, but he was not a defensive liability and there are far worse players a team can carry on the bench. Theo Epstein and the Red Sox recognized this and signed him prior to the 2008 season. In limited action, Casey put together a relatively nice season with a .344 wOBA. In half the playing time he matched his 2007 win value of +0.1.

He walks away from the game with a .353 wOBA, 130 HR, over 1,500 hits, and over 100 offensive runs above average. The personable Casey immediately joined the MLB Network team in an undetermined analyst role. For 12 seasons, Casey combined some talent with a surplus of humility and fun, proving to be one of baseball’s most colorful characters in the process.


Aardsma the Mariner

Padres sign Henry Blanco (1/750k)

The Cubs interest in acquiring a southpaw bat left Blanco in the cold, although not for too long. On a team with a good catcher, Blanco is a mighty fine reserve, on the Padres Blanco represents the best backstop option. Nick Hundley will get most of the at-bats as the Padres try to figure out whether he is an option heading forward or simply a stopgap. Thus, Blanco is casted as the “mentor” type who starts in day games. Since his starting stint with the Twins 2004 Blanco has been worth 1.5 wins in a similar role.

Brewers sign Craig Counsell (1/1 mil)

When the Royals signed Willie Bloomquist for two years and three million, general manager Dayton Moore described Bloomquist as a “Craig Counsell” type. Naturally, the actual Counsell would sign for one year and for a third of the money. This is a nifty signing for the Brewers thanks to Counsell’s still worthwhile glove. Over the last three years Counsell has average a win per season, suggesting he’s going to make the Brewers a profit this season.

Plus his batting stance is the most unique in this post-Tony Batista league.

Mariners acquire David Aardsma for Fabian Williamson

Williamson is a 20-year old lefty who spent 2008 in rookie ball, pitching pretty well, although having some issues with walks. Williams sits in the high-80’s, and apparently the new Seattle brass felt his ceiling wasn’t much higher than a situational type, and thus sent him to Boston.

Is Aardsma the next Grant Balfour or Matt Thornton? Probably not, but they do have some things in common; impressive strikeout totals, a reliance on a mid-90’s fastball, and issuing high rates of free passes. If nothing else, the following graphs are pretty to look at, and for Mariner fans, fun to imagine.

Aardsma is out of options, so expect him to get a look in the Mariners pen.


Felix Hernandez and His Fastball, Part 3

Continuing from the past few days, I this time separated Felix Hernandez’s starts based on the percentage of fastballs he threw within the first 20 pitches. Five times during the season Felix throw 65% or fewer fastballs during this opening stretch. For reference, those five games were: April 1st against Texas, April 6th at Baltimore, April 11 against Anaheim, July 28th at Texas and August 29th against Cleveland.

Counting up the batters that came to the plate within that 20 pitch barrier (including those that finished their plate appearance past the 20-pitch threshold), here were Felix’s relevant totals for those five games:

27 batters faced, 15 ground balls (56%), 1 fly ball (4%), 1 line drive (4%), 8 strikeouts (30%), 2 walks (7%).

That is a pretty dominant stretch and it came against some really good hitting teams. How did Felix do in the other 26 games?

147 batters faced, 55 ground balls (37%), 27 fly balls (18%), 20 line drives (14%), 31 strikeouts (21%), 14 walks + HBP (10%).

It doesn’t take someone well versed in FIP or tRA or any advanced metric to see which of those two lines is better. Interestingly, of the five games in the first sample, three of them were Felix’s first three starts of the year. I wonder why he quickly departed from it when even by traditional measures, he was successful.

Five games certainly isn’t a big enough sample size to draw definitive conclusions from, so I dearly hope Felix provides us with some more such games in the future. Then I would like to look not only at his performance during the first 20 pitches, but from pitch 20 onward as well to see if the improvement sustained itself throughout the game or not.

Will mixing in his off speed stuff earlier in the game cure Felix of all his problems? Of course not. He still has pretty lousy command of his fastball. What it will do though is force batters to not just sit fastball and the evidence leans heavily toward showing us that in those situations, Felix becomes a much tougher pitcher to face. The type of pitcher we all thought he would be by now after his debut in 2005.


Jekyll And Hyde Mets Moves

The Mets and GM Omar Minaya have had a very active offseason, most notably acquiring both Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz. Reliever Sean Green and OF Jeremy Reed also came over in the Putz trade, and Minaya inked both SP Tim Redding and IF Alex Cora to low-risk, one-year deals. This week, he made three more signings: one solid, one average, and one that makes little sense given a previous move. Let’s start with the solid.

Freddy Garcia used to be a very good pitcher. From 2002-06, his minimum IP total was 201.1, and he averaged +3.6 wins/season. In 2007, Garcia logged 58 ineffective innings for the Phillies before spending the rest of the season on the disabled list. He did not return until the very end of the 2008 season, when the Tigers allowed him to toe the rubber for three starts. Little can be drawn from his 15 innings of work, but with so many suitors this winter, it seems like a safe assumption that Garcia has recovered from his injury.

Freddy eventually decided to choose between the Mets and Yankees, choosing to sign with the Mets since a greater opportunity to join the rotation existed. The deal is incentive-laden and could prove to be worth $9 mil in value. The exact terms are not yet known, but assuming the base salary is a maximum of $2 mil, Garcia would need to be nothing more than +0.5 wins to break even. In 2007, when he posted a 5.45 FIP in 58 innings, he still produced +0.2 wins, making it extremely likely that he will meet or surpass +0.5 wins this season.

The average signing involves Rob Mackowiak, who inked a minor league deal worth $600K. The versatile Mackowiak played just 38 games for the Washington Nationals last season, playing league average outfield defense with a .224 wOBA. His offensive struggles were not terribly exploited, however, as he only amassed 63 PA. With Alex Cora already on the roster as a backup infielder, should Mackowiak make the club he will likely be used as nothing more than a pinch-runner, outfield defensive replacement. Although Mackowiak may be roadblocked by the move detailed below.

The very questionable move saw Minaya sign former Rockies OF Cory Sullivan to a major league deal worth $600K. Based on reputation, Sullivan is nothing special as a hitter but solid in the outfield. The numbers beg to differ. In his four-year career, Sullivan has averaged -6 runs with the bat and -5 runs with the glove. Numbers defying his reputation does not make this move questionable. No, what makes it questionable is that they already have Jeremy Reed on the roster.

Reed and Sullivan are not the exact same player, but, at the very least, they have very similar skillsets. Since 2005, Reed has been ever so slightly worse with the bat, but equally better with the glove. And this is before even mentioning that Angel Pagan is also on the roster. Yes, Ryan Church may be fragile and Daniel Murphy may not be proven, but loading up on players like Reed and Sullivan, who are a tad overrated as fielders and subpar hitters does not make a whole heck of a lot of sense.

The Mets have definitely upgraded their bullpen this season, but color me unimpressed so far with regards to their offense and rotation uprades.


Pitcher Win Value Leaderboards

Because I just can’t stay away, let’s talk about pitcher win values again. This time, let’s look at how pitchers have performed in rolling three year totals dating back to 2002, which is the first year we calculate win values for here on FanGraphs.

2002 to 2004 leaderboard

Curt Schilling leads the way with +23 wins from ’02 to ’04, propelled to the top by his ridiculous 2002 season where he was a +9.7 win pitcher. I think people forget how good Schilling was that year – 9.58 K/BB rate in 259 innings. That’s just remarkably awesome. Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Roy Halladay, and Jason Schmidt round out the top five.

2003 to 2005 leaderboard

Nobody cracks the +20 win plateau over these three years, with Pedro Martinez and Johan Santana leading the way at +19.5 wins apiece. Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, and Jason Schmidt round out the top five.

2004 to 2006 leaderboard

Johan emerges as the dominant pitcher of this era, racking up +22.6 wins and throwing 693 innings during that time frame. Nobody else is close, with Roy Oswalt checking in second at +18.1 wins. This was the age of Johan.

2005 to 2007 leaderboard

Santana loses his great ’04 and replaces it with a less great ’07, but still manages to cling to the lead. Again, though, no one cracks the +20 win mark, as Johan’s +19.5 is best in baseball. Brandon Webb emerges, though, to take the second spot at +19.1 wins. Meanwhile, John Smoltz tries to remind everyone that he’s still pitching, and checks in with a +16.5 total that’s fifth best in baseball over those three years. Those were his age 38 to 40 seasons.

2006 to 2008 leaderboard

Finally, the last three years. CC Sabathia takes the top spot at +20.3 wins, just edging out Brandon Webb (+19.7) and Roy Halladay (+19.2). Santana plummets all the way to fourth, with Dan Haren rounding out the top five.

So, who has been the best pitcher of the Win Value era? Santana seems like the best guess, since he led (or was tied for the lead) in three of the five windows we looked at, but he actually finishes second to the amazing Roy Halladay. Since 2002, Halladay has racked up +42.7 wins, three more than Santana’s +39.8. +42 wins in seven years – not only has Halladay been an excellent pitcher, he’s been consistently excellent. He’s never got the same level of acclaim as Johan, but a seven year stretch of +6 wins from a starting pitcher is amazingly impressive. Hats off to Halladay.


Revisiting the Johan Santana Trade

It’s been almost a year since the Minnesota Twins traded ace Johan Santana to the New York Mets for a collection of prospects. The trade probably hasn’t gone as well as the Twins had hoped it would go. Only one prospect, out of four, has had any kind of impact in Minnesota: Carlos Gomez. The 23-year-old outfielder hit .258/.296/.360 with 33 stolen bases in 153 games in 2008.

Beyond Gomez’ contribution, though, the Twins organization has received less-than-expected results from Deolis Guerra and Phil Humber, while Kevin Mulvey showed modest improvements. Guerra was the key prospect in the deal and had an encouraging season in High-A ball in 2007 at the age of 19 for the Mets. He repeated that same level in 2008 and regressed by posting a 5.47 ERA and allowing 138 hits in 130 innings. His command and control also collapsed and he allowed 71 walks and 71 strikeouts. The right-hander’s stuff also lacked its former life. Guerra will likely be back in High-A ball for a third shot in 2009.

Both Humber and Mulvey were advanced pitching prospects and were expected to contribute significantly at the Major League level in 2008. Humber, though, regressed like Guerra. After allowing 129 hits in 139 Triple-A innings in 2007, he allowed 145 hits in 136.1 innings at the same level. His ERA rose from 4.27 to 4.56 and his K/BB ratio dropped from 2.73 to 2.16. On the plus side, Humber improved each month in 2008 after a rough first two months of the year. The right-hander is 26 entering 2009 and has no clear opportunity with the Twins in 2009 unless he makes a move to the bullpen.

Mulvey, 23, appears to have the most present potential of the three pitching prospects at this point. He spent 2007 in Double-A and allowed 145 hits in 151.2 innings with rates of 2.55 BB/9 and 6.53 K/9. The right-hander spent 2008 in Triple-A and allowed 152 hits in 148 innings of work. Mulvey posted rates of 2.92 BB/9 and 7.26 K/9. Barring injuries, the pitching depth in Minnesota will likely keep the right-hander in Triple-A for a second straight season but youth is on his side. The CHONE projection system predicts a 5.21 ERA for Mulvey in 2009, with 130 hits allowed in 114 innings and rates of 3.47 BB/9 and 6.00 K/9.

When you have to trade the best pitcher in baseball, it’s hard to outright win the deal. Although the players obtained from New York have not set the world on fire, Gomez had an encouraging first season in the Majors at a very young age. Guerra is still quite young and has a lot of time to rediscover his stuff, or learn to succeed without it. Humber could provide some innings out of the bullpen in 2009 and Mulvey will be just a phone call away if injuries strike the Minnesota rotation.


Change Of Scenery

As the off-season winds down, teams are starting to get a better look at how their roster is going to shake out and where certain players fit together on the field and in the line-up. However, there are several teams that have surplus players at positions and should be actively looking to make a move to redistribute some talent in a more efficient manner. Here are three players who would have more value to another club than they do to the one they’re on currently.

Luke Scott, OF, Baltimore

With the acquisition of Felix Pie to play LF, the Orioles are relegating Scott to the DH spot, since he doesn’t fit into their Three CF plan. However, Scott just doesn’t have a DH skillset – he’s a decent enough hitter (CHONE has him .255/.343/.462 for 2008), but he’s also a pretty decent defensive outfielder. He has a career UZR/150 of +8.5, well above average for a corner OF. In 1,300 career plate appearances, he’s racked up +7.3 wins, or just about +3.5 wins per full season.

As an OF, he’s projected for something like +2.0 to +2.5 wins for 2009. As a DH, though, where his defensive value would be nullified, that drops to +1.0 to +1.5 wins. There are a pretty long list of teams who could use a low cost, league average corner outfielder, and the Orioles would do well to find one of those teams and strike a deal. Finding a guy to DH and give you a .350 wOBA isn’t very hard, particularly in this free agent market. They’ll get more value by trading Scott and signing a stop-gap DH than they will by using him as just a hitter.

Willy Aybar, 3B, Tampa Bay

We’ve talked Aybar earlier this winter, but he still remains the best reserve player in baseball. A 25-year-old switch-hitting infielder who has accumulated +3.9 wins in 745 career PA shouldn’t be looking at a job where he only plays a couple of times per week. Aybar is an everyday major league player, and only Tampa’s loaded organizational depth chart prevents him from laying hold of a full time job. The question in his case, though, is what motivation would the Rays have to deal him? What else do they need?

In many ways, Aybar is being punished for the fact that the Rays have done such a great job of building a roster around him. Not only do they not have a regular job for him, but they don’t have any glaring needs that they should be trying to fill via trade. Their weakest link is in the bullpen, but as they showed last year, you don’t have to give up talented players to build a success relief corps. Realistically, Aybar’s going to have to hope for an injury to get any real playing time. For his sake, let’s hope he gets an opportunity before the reserve infielder label sticks.

Austin Kearns, OF, Washington

Jim Bowden’s fondness for toolsy outfielders is no secret, as he routinely scoops up every available power/speed guy who hasn’t figured out how to hit a baseball. Thanks to his obsessive nature of collecting upside guys and shoving them into a locker room together, the Nationals have an overloaded outfield and not enough room for everyone to play. Elijah Dukes is the one guy who should absolutely play everyday, no questions asked, but the other two spots have to be split among Lastings Milledge, Josh Willlingham, Willie Harris, Wily Mo Pena, and Kearns, not to mention the always lurking Corey Patterson, who got a minor league contract and will be in spring training with the Nationals.

Kearns has fallen a long way from his top prospect days, and was especially horrendous last year. However, he’s still an excellent defensive outfielder heading into his age 28 season and a year away from free agency (the odds of his $10 million option for 2010 being exercise are slim), so he’d make a useful reclamation project for a team with at-bats to spare for an outfielder. Kearns simply has less utility for a team like Washington than he would for a club that is one OF short of filling out their roster, and with a limited future in the nation’s capital, it’s in everyone’s best interests if he moves on before the year starts.


Abreu Overload

Jon Heyman’s drew the ire of many a blog in the past, including numerous times this off-season alone, but his latest column features this nugget about Bobby Abreu:

Abreu is getting a bad rap by executives who are overemphasizing his defensive slippage. He’s still an adequate right fielder, but his fear of the wall got so much airtime in New York that he has become over-criticized. Abreu, in fact, is fifth in assists among right fielders over the last three years and third in fielding percentage, and while he’s 16th of 27 in range factor, Yankees pitchers had the second highest ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio in the AL. Meanwhile, Raul Ibanez, a below average left fielder who was a chic pick this winter, probably benefited by being hidden in Seattle and signed for $31.5 million over three years with Abreu’s former Phillies team. Any way you compare these two players, Abreu looks better … at least from here.

All righty then, let’s break this down piece by piece.

Abreu is getting a bad rap by executives who are overemphasizing his defensive slippage

I’m not entirely sure how anyone can overemphasize his defensive “slippage”. The truth is, Bobby Abreu is going to hurt you if he plays the field, and when you weigh his total value, yeah his defense hurts him.

He’s still an adequate right fielder, but his fear of the wall got so much airtime in New York that he has become over-criticized.

No he’s not, at least not defensively. Abreu has been a negative defender since 2004, whether or not he crashes into walls is largely irrelevant. Carl Crawford rarely runs into the wall and he still rates as one of the best defenders in the game. Plus, how many plays is Abreu going to be required to make that involve running smack into a wall?

Abreu, in fact, is fifth in assists among right fielders over the last three years

Having a good arm is only one of the defensive tools, but since 2004, The Hardball Times has valued Abreu’s arm at: 4.4, 0.2, -1, and 3.6 runs per 200 opportunities. That’s an average of 1.8 runs, we’ll be generous and say Abreu will prevent 2 runs with his arm next season, that still doesn’t make him any less of an awful fielder.

and third in fielding percentage, and while he’s 16th of 27 in range factor, Yankees pitchers had the second highest ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio in the AL

This contradicts itself. Abreu’s pitching staff gives him fewer chances, so therefore we should hardly take a high fielding percentage as an indication of Abreu’s defensive wizardry. Plus, the criticism is not that Abreu’s glove disallows him from making catches, but that his range doesn’t allow him to reach balls that average right fielders do.

Meanwhile, Raul Ibanez, a below average left fielder who was a chic pick this winter, probably benefited by being hidden in Seattle and signed for $31.5 million over three years with Abreu’s former Phillies team. Any way you compare these two players, Abreu looks better … at least from here.

UZR takes park factors into account, so sure, even if you grant that it’s easer to field left in SafeCo than right in Yankee Stadium, we should still be able to compare these two with park biased stripped from the equation. Over the last three years Dewan has Abreu at -14 (32nd), -14 (32nd), and -24 (34th) while Ibanez was at +2 (16th), -25 (33rd), -18 (33rd). UZR puts Abreu worth -15.3, -4.2, and -25.2, and Ibanez worth -5.6, -20.8, and -12.6. Average that out, and factor in the arms ratings and Abreu is worth about eight runs less than Ibanez.

Offensively Abreu has been 19 (park adjusted) runs better over the last three years, which means about 11 runs better overall, or one win. So yeah, Abreu is the better player, but the Ibanez move was ridiculous on its own, that does not mean some team should sign Abreu and throw him in the outfield. If we use the poor moves to judge all players then we should go ahead and campaign Juan Uribe in for a multiple year deal, after all, Willie Bloomquist and Aaron Miles got one apiece.

Look, Bobby Abreu is a decent enough player who can help a team. By all means, someone should sign him as a DH type if the money is right, but playing him in the field is devaluing him.