Archive for February, 2009

2009 Replacement Level: Catchers

As most of you know, the Win Values we present here on FanGraphs are wins above a replacement level player. Replacement level, essentially, is the expected performance you could get from a player who costs nothing to acquire and makes the league minimum. That’s the baseline that players add value over – performance over their no-cost substitute.

However, I know examples can be extremely helpful, so today, we’re going to start looking at some players who currently personify replacement level, and what their respective organizations should expect from them in 2009. We’ll go through all the positions in order to look at what a replacement level player currently looks like at each spot.

Catcher

This has been the off-season of the low cost catcher, as 14 of them have signed contracts as free agents, and only Jason Varitek received more than $1.5 million per year, and of the low cost guys, only David Ross got more than a one year deal. Seven of the 14 signed minor league contracts, so they’re the ones that we’re really interested in as replacement level catchers. The list, along with their wOBA projections from CHONE:

Jamie Burke, Seattle, .282 wOBA
Kevin Cash, New York (AL), .264 wOBA
Toby Hall, Houston, .292 wOBA
Robby Hammock, Baltimore, .287 wOBA
Adam Melhuse, Texas, .271 wOBA
Chad Moeller, Baltimore, .254 wOBA
Vance Wilson, Kansas City, No Projection – Didn’t Play in ’08

The average of the wOBA projections is .275. However, besides Burke and Cash, these guys aren’t renowned for their glove work. Hall and Melhuse, especially, are seen as fringe defensive receivers. Overall, we’d probably have to describe this group as below average defensively, so their total value is going to be a bit less than their .275 wOBA might indicate. Let’s knock it down to .270 and run it through the run value conversion.

((.270 – .330) / 1.20) * 600 = -30 runs per 600 PA.

So, we’re looking at replacement level catchers being worth something like -30 runs below an average hitter over a full season. Add in the +12.5 position adjustment, and we’re calling this group something like 17.5 runs below an average catcher over a full season. In reality, the gap will be a bit smaller than that, since catchers don’t get 600 PA. Given the reduced playing time, the gap between average and replacement level for a starting catcher is more like +15 runs, or about +1.5 wins.

So, here are your examples of replacement level catchers – guys like Burke, Hall, and Hammock would be expected to be something like 1.5 wins below an average catcher in 2009.


Gomes Finds a New Home

Reds sign Jonny Gomes (minor league deal)

Signing Gomes is a prudent move for the Reds and one that beats the heck out of trading for Jermaine Dye. Over the last three years has measured out below replacement level – thanks in part to less than stellar fielding – but last year a .200 BABIP attributed to the poor results. Over the last three years Gomes wRAAs have been rather poor for an outfielder with a reputation for power: -4, 2.6, -4.3. Despite that, CHONE has Gomes at 9.8 wRAA while Marcels says -3.1, and Oliver 0.7. Gomes career .879 OPS versus left-handed pitchers suggests he should hit in a platoon role, and as mentioned his defense is below average (See this photo for evidence), but there’s a chance Gomes becomes a poor man’s Adam Dunn. He’ll compete with Norris Hopper and others for a roster spot.

Nationals sign Gary Glover (minor league deal)

Another former Ray, Glover is what he is. A replacement level reliever with a starter’s history, suggesting he’s capable of producing outings of multiple innings. Glover joins Bobby Brownlie, Gustavo Chacin, Jesus Colome, Justin Jones, Wilfredo Ledezma, J.D. Martin, Jorge Sosa, Josh Towers, and Ryan Wagner as National non-roster invitees.

Giants sign Juan Uribe (minor league deal)

Over the last three years Uribe has been worth 1.1 wins while Willie Bloomquist was worth 0.4 wins, yet somehow the latter gets a multi-year major league deal, and Uribe settles for a minor league deal. Where’s the justice in that? There’s no guarantee Uribe makes the 25-man roster, but you have to believe at some point this year he’ll get some at-bats with the Giants and at an appropriate price for his talent.

Red Sox sign Fernando Cabrera (minor league deal)

Within a week of losing David Aardsma the Red Sox quickly filled their “high strikeout, walk” reliever quota with Cabrera. It’s been a while since Cabrera teased the baseball world in 2005 with 50 innings and a 2.63 FIP. In every season since Cabrera’s walk rate has been above 4.5 mark in the majors. Relievers are so volatile, there’s a chance Cabrera gets back to his 2005 self next year, but it’s probably more likely he remains a tempting however unfulfilling replacement level reliever.


The 2009 APBMFE Team

One of the most interesting aspects of transactions, for me at least, involves finding out how much money certain teams will give to others in order to unload the player. For instance, the Orioles were realistically only able to get rid of Ramon Hernandez by sending a cool $2 mil to the Reds in addition to his services. We see this sort of thing happen all the time, making it somewhat commonplace in the business of baseball.

Last year, over at StatSpeak, I took a look at the players who would earn a pretty penny from their former employers. With pitchers and catchers due to report in just under two weeks, it seemed appropriate to post the second installment of the series: The 2009 All Paid By My Former Employer Team. Some of the players no longer play major league baseball, but find their way onto the roster to fill up positions.

C:  Ramon Hernandez    $2.0 mil  Orioles
C:  Dave Ross          $375K     Reds
1B: Scott Spezio       $100k     Cardinals
2B: Pablo Ozuna        $200K     White Sox
SS: Juan Castro        $100K     Reds
3B: Mike Lamb          $3.1 mil  Twins
OF: Andruw Jones       $5.0 mil  Dodgers ($16 mil from 2010-14)
OF: Jay Gibbons        $6.2 mil  Orioles

Okay, so we don’t have a perfect alignment, and with just two outfielders, it would be very tough for Jones and Gibbons to succeed defensively. Dave Ross seems like the Russell Branyan-type who can play 1B and 3B, but so far he only has experience behind the plate. Had he been able to play first, Spezio could move to the outfield and we would have a team of eight hitters assembled. They might not compete but that is a whole different story. How about the pitchers?

SP: Jason Marquis      $875K      Cubs
SP: Esteban Loaiza     $375K      Dodgers
SP: Matt Morris        $1.0 mil   Pirates
RP: Oscar Villareal    $1.6 mil   Astros
RP: Scott Schoeneweis  $1.6 mil   Mets
RP: Mike Stanton       $500k      Reds

Interesting to note that the Reds have three players on this list, and the Orioles have two. Jay Gibbons will earn the most money from his former employer next season, at $6.2 mil. Kind of wacky given that he hasn’t played since August 2007. Andruw Jones contract made headlines this offseason but he actually comes in second place to Gibbons at an estimated $5 mil owed this season.

Morris, Stanton, and Loaiza are all done, and in terms of effectiveness, so too is Villareal. Marquis posted slightly below average WAR marks the last two seasons and Schoeneweis is still serviceable as a lefty specialist. This team would not frighten anyone else, but they might be able to give Dave’s Freely Available Talent team a run for its money.