Another day, another scatter plot. This time, I’ve taken the hitters who have racked up enough at-bats to qualify over the last three years and put their percentage of fastballs seen on the x axis and their percentage of pitches swung at out of the zone on the y axis. Or, to put it in FanGraphs stats terms, you’ve got Fastball% and O-Swing% plotted here, as we look to see how strong the relationsihp is between hitters who have proven a willingness to chase pitches and pitchers willingness to throw those same hitters fastballs.

Here’s the chart.

This chart actually looks a bit like the FB% and ISO chart from last week, though the slope of the line isn’t as sharp. Indeed, the correlation here is -.34, quite a bit lower than the -.59 that we found between a player’s power and the willingness of pitchers to challenge him. However, there is definitely still a relationship in play here – the more a player shows that he’s willing to expand the zone, the less incentive a pitcher has to throw something straight and hard.

The most interesting group on the graph, to me, are the five points in the 35-40% O-Swing% range (right below Vladimir Guerrero). These guys are some of the most aggressive free swingers in baseball, all with a I-Can-Hit-Anything approach to hitting. Included in this group are Alfonso Soriano, Jeff Francoeur, Bengie Molina, Ivan Rodriguez, and A.J. Pierzynski. Despite similar willingness to swing at anything, Soriano and Francoeur see the fewest number of fastballs of that group. They also are the two most powerful hitters of the group. That’s probably not a coincidence – even when faced with a batter who is willing to go out of the zone to swing the bat, pitchers are still selecting which pitches to throw based on the potential damage that could be done if the batter connects. Even though Pierzynski is just as likely to chase a curveball in the dirt as Soriano, he gets more fastballs because he’s not going to punish the pitcher in the same way if he gets around on it.

We’ve heard a lot over the years about the value of working the count in order to make a pitcher throw you a fastball that you can hit, and while there’s certainly some truth to the value of that approach, hitters like David Ortiz, Adam Dunn, and Jim Thome aren’t actually seeing more fastballs than the hacking types who swing at anything. Pitchers are willing to walk hitters who scare them, and their pitch selection is certainly based more on fear of power than manipulation of the count by patient hitters. Brian Giles does a great job of taking pitches, but he gets a lot of fastballs because his power has evaporated, not because he’s forcing pitchers into 3-1 counts.

David Ortiz gets 54.5% fastballs despite hardly ever chasing pitches out of the zone. Alfonso Soriano gets 52.3% fastballs while swinging at pickoff throws to first.

A good approach to hitting is important, but if we’re looking for evidence that hitters can significantly increase the amount of fastballs they see by not chasing pitches out of the zone, we’re not really finding it.

A common discussion point this off-season is the length of dollar amount of the contracts handed out during free agency. Given the unfortunate economic climate, naturally interest is high in the amount of dollars and years agreed upon by teams and players alike. Underneath you’ll find three scatter plots that cover each of the past three off-seasons. Thanks to ESPN’s free agent tracker I’ve compiled every major league contract agreed to during the off-season and plotted them based on length and value.



If it looks like MLB teams have became more hesitant to sign players to 5-plus year contracts, it’s because they have. In 2006, teams combined for six deals of 5-years length, only three have been given out since. There have been six 5+ year contracts over the last two years, and 10 in 2006. Obviously, this assumes the amount of players worthy of 5+ year deals has remained consistent, something we can check thanks to our Win Value metric.

Looking at purely the “contract” year value is misleading, so we’re going to include an average of their three year data as well.

There are a few extension/re-signing types (the Yankees class of 2007) but otherwise you should notice the abundance of class of ‘08s within the top 10 most valuable free agents. That eradicates the idea that 2008 had a weaker free agent class, and raises the question: why have teams withheld longer contracts recently? Is this a sign of smarter spending, or simply a coincidence?

In 2006, teams gave out 57 years and 785M to those top 10 free agents. Those numbers dropped to 43 years and 726M in 2007, and 43 years and 700M in 2008. Yet that’s counterintuitive, given we know that teams were paying roughly 3.7M per win in 2006, 4.1M per win in 2007, and 4.5M per win in 2008. It would appear that teams are no longer overspending on players like Jeff Suppan.

Whether it means signing shorter term deals or simply paying market worth it’s obvious that teams have at least gotten a bit more efficient in the usage of their free agent dollars.,

I was feeling the player comments was a bit of a false start, so in an effort to try out some new features, it’s been replaced by the Player Links section, which I think could be particularly useful for both our readers and writers.

For any player you can enter in a link to a particular article that is relevant to that player along with a brief description of the article or short quote from the article. Feel free to submit links to your own work as well as links to whatever news, analysis, or commentary you feel would be useful to FanGraphs visitors for that particular player.

After I put up the graph on the relationship between fastballs seen by hitters and that hitters power rates, I started thinking about whether there might be some game theory issues that could be played around with. For instance, since we know that no power slap hitters see a lot more fastballs than guys with the ability to drive the ball, does this give us reason to think that traditional line-up roles are not optimized?

Most teams still use speed as a significant factor in choosing their leadoff hitter, and stolen base attempts from the #1 spot in the batting order dwarfs attempts from all the other line-up spots. There were 498 SB attempts from #1 hitters in the majors last year – no other batting order slot got more than 239.

So, since leadoff hitters are going to be stealing far more than any other line-up spot, we can infer that the #2 hitter will be at the plate most often when SB attempts occur. What’s the common wisdom on how pitchers defend against stolen bases? Throw fastballs. So which line-up spot should see the most fastballs? The #2 hitter.

Given that assumption, it would then follow that teams could setup a dilemma for pitchers by having a #2 hitter who pitchers do not want to throw fastballs too. If you had a high power #2 hitter, who pitchers only wanted to throw fastballs too 55% of the time, then you’d be forcing the pitcher to base his pitch selection on either the hitter or the runner. If you have a low power #2 hitter, then his desire to throw fastballs would align with both runner and hitter strategies, and there would be no conflict.

Despite this, #2 hitters had the second lowest ISO of any line-up spot in baseball last year, ahead of only #9 hitters. Indeed, the classic #2 hitter is a high contact hitter who is valued for his ability to give the manager confidence to call a hit and run or hit the ball to the right side if the leadoff hitter is able to steal second on his own. The current archtype #2 hitter is exactly the opposite of the kind of hitter that would force a pitcher to choose between pitching to the batter or the runner.

Now, I’m not suggesting that every team move their clean-up hitter to the #2 spot in the order. However, I do believe that players like Garret Anderson – moderate power free swingers who get a lot of breaking balls because they’ll chase them – could make a lot of sense in the #2 hole for a team with a prolific base-stealing leadoff guy. There’s value in making a pitcher choose between pitching to the hitter or the runner, and that value is being abandoned by teams who forgo any amount of power at the #2 spot in the order.

College baseball season kicked off over the weekend, and so while the news is pretty slow at the major league level, let’s take a look at what some of the interesting draft-eligible guys did this weekend, with the understanding that none of these statistics matter at all.

Stephen Strasburg, RHP, San Diego State

The presumed #1 pick in the country took the hill against Bethune-Cookman on Friday and continued to show why he’s everyone’s number one prospect. 5 2/3 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 11 K, and a lot of hard fastballs. It will be interesting to see how Strasburg’s junior season ends up compared with Mark Prior and David Price – the last two college arms who had these kinds of expectations.

Grant Green, SS, USC

The Trojans shortstop keeps getting compared to some kind of hybrid of Troy Tulowitski and Evan Longoria, though no one thinks he’s as good defensively as TT or offensively as Longoria. But a combination of an above average glove and above average bat at shortstop is a pretty valuable thing, and Green’s probably the frontrunner to go #2 right now. His weekend didn’t go so well, though – 2 for 11 with 1 HR, 1 BB, and 3 K against Long Beach State.

Dustin Ackley, 1B/CF, UNC

The Tar Heels opened with the Virginia Military Institute, which isn’t really much competition for one of the top baseball programs in the country. So, it shouldn’t be all that surprising that Ackley – the best pure hitter in this draft – went 9 for 13 with three doubles and a walk over the weekend. The kid can hit. However, his bat won’t determine his draft spot, but instead, his potential position will. He’s a pretty good athlete, definitely good enough for the outfield, but arm problems (he’s coming off TJ surgery) have limited him to first base so far in his college career. He’s the Heels starting first baseman again this year, but they’re aware that scouts want to see him play CF, and he got a couple innings in center on Friday night. How well he shows he can handle center field will go a long way to determining where in the first round he ends up getting selected this summer.

Alex White, RHP, UNC

There’s some really good players over in Chapel Hill this year. Besides Ackley, White is the leader among non-Strasburg arms for this summer, and he’s Carolina’s Friday starter. His season opener probably wasn’t what he was hoping for – 5 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 1 HR, 1 BB, 9 K – but he still flashed his power fastball and showed dominating ability by striking out the side in both the first and second innings. He struggled a bit in the 4th and 5th innings, but it was the first game of the season, so no one’s worried. The stuff is still lights out.

One of the last standing California Angels has officially moved on. Garret Anderson and Ken Griffey Jr. were subjects of multiple rumors over the past few weeks as both were sought after by Atlanta and Seattle. After Griffey and Seattle eliminated half of the options, Anderson and the Braves found themselves in each other arms, regardless of their prior preferences. In the end, it makes more sense for all parties involved.

Atlanta may have wanted Griffey’s bat and intangibles, but landing Anderson for one-year and only 2.5 million is a pretty nice cap the Braves off-season additions. Anderson is no longer capable of offensive outbursts like the ones in 2002 and 2003, but his bat isn’t made of animal spirits either. A declining ISO and walk rate have left Anderson dependant on his batting average and occasional power. Glance at Anderson’s O-Swing% and you’ll see an increase in hacks, backed by a decrease amount of swings inside of the zone.

Dewan has Anderson at -2, -6, and 0 plays over the past three years while UZR says -3.6, -1.8, and 9.3 runs. Average those numbers out and you’re looking at an average corner outfielder. CHONE has Anderson worth -2 wRAA next season while Marcels says -6.1 and Oliver says -1. That’s an average of -3 wRAA, assuming he’s a touch better as a part-timer and we’ll call him league average. Throw that together while assuming Anderson will see ~70% of the playing time in a traditional platoon and Anderson should be worth around a win.

Interesting off-season for Atlanta with the Anderson and Tom Glavine moves adding to an off-season in which they added Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez, Kenshin Kawakami, and reserve catcher David Ross.

Kris Benson has had quite the curious career, mixing solid and awful campaigns with an unappealing injury history, and a personal relationship that hogged more headlines than his actual performance. He burst onto the scene in 1999, with the Pirates, and put up an impressive 4.14 FIP in 196.2 innings. Benson avoided the sophomore slump in 2000, posting a 4.20 FIP in 217.2 innings. He then missed the entire 2001 season recovering from an injury and saw limited action the next two seasons.

In 2004, Benson split time between the Pirates and Mets, and put together his best season. With a 3.75 FIP, 2.20 K/BB, and +3.8 wins in 200.1 innings, Benson appeared to have finally recovered from his injury woes, righting the proverbial ship in the process. Unfortunately, this was not the case, as his strikeout and home run rates trended in opposite directions in 2005 and 2006, leading Benson back under the knife for rotator cuff surgery.

He missed the entire 2007 season recovering and went through the audition process before landing a gig in the Phillies farm system in 2008. Things didn’t exactly work out as planned, as not only did Benson fail to reach the major leagues, he struggled to shut down AAA hitting, eventually earning his release from the team. After some more auditioning, the Rangers have taken a flyer on Benson, signing him to a minor league deal that could be valued at $2 mil if he makes the team and earns a spot in the rotation.

This bugs me. I don’t know how I became the Chairman of the Odalis Perez Foundation, but I just struggle to comprehend how the 34-yr old Benson, who stunk in the minor leagues last year and has not pitched in the majors since 2006 has the chance to make over twice what the 31-yr old Odalis Perez—who has put up win values of +1.6, +1.4, +1.5, and +1.5 over the last four seasons—will make in 2009.

Ignoring the Perez comparison, this is not a bad move for the Rangers given how poor their rotation performed last season and how relatively little Benson costs. If he makes the team, he seems capable of hovering around +1-win performance but he no longer has the +2 or +3 win upside evident in his stellar 2004 season. And who knows if he has even fully recovered? This is a solid move for the Rangers but I just wonder why someone like Perez was not more attractive to their plans.

The Reds system took a bit of a hit for 2009 after the organization graduated a plethora of rookie talent in 2008, including pitcher Johnny Cueto, first baseman Joey Votto, and outfielder Jay Bruce. The pitching depth is especially thin, but the club has restocked the hitting department with some solid picks in the last few drafts. It’s still a nice system.

AAA/AA Prospects:
Toolsy outfielder Drew Stubbs has shown steady improvement in the past two seasons and he played at three levels in 2008. He spent most of the season at High-A ball, where he hit .261 – but he also maintained a .315 average in 26 Double-A games, and had a .293 average in 19 Triple-A games. Stubbs, 24, could taste the Majors by mid-season and has the potential to hit 15 homers and steal 30 bases. He strikes out a lot, and probably always will.

Infielder Chris Valaika has hit like a mad man since entering pro ball as a third-round draft pick out of college in 2006. He hit .301/.352/.443 in Double-A in 2008 and has a .306 career batting average. Valaika has the potential to hit 15 homers and steal 10 bases at the MLB level. Defensively, he is average at shortstop but is better suited to second base.

Juan Francisco is basically a younger, cheaper version of current Reds third baseman Edwin Encarnacion. The switch hitter has slugged 48 home runs in the past two seasons and also stole 12 bases in 2007. In Double-A in 2008, Francisco hit .277/.303/.496 and posted rates of 3.6 BB% and 23.8 K%. A more selective approach at the plate may help him hit for a higher average.

Right-hander Daryl Thompson was originally drafted in the eighth round out of high school by the Montreal Expos and his career ascent has been slowed by injuries. He made his MLB debut with the Reds in 2008 and was roughed up by allowing 20 hits and seven walks in 14.1 innings. Thompson also pitched 17 games at Double-A and Triple-A and allowed just 83 hits in 107 innings of work. If a Reds starter falters in 2009, Thompson could be in front of former top prospect Homer Bailey for the first shot at filling in.

Raw Canadian Kyle Lotzkar, 19, has succeeded quicker than just about everyone expected, after he was taken in the 2007 supplemental first round. He has a career 3.40 ERA and has allowed just 51 hits in 66.2 innings, but Lotzkar made just 10 starts in 2008 thanks to an elbow injury. Surgery was not performed, so there remains a risk of it in the near future.

A+/A Prospects:
Todd Frazier was another 2007 supplemental first round pick – but he’s more advanced than Lotzkar, having been taken out of college. Drafted as a shortstop, Frazier is likely to make his MLB debut as a third baseman – or possibly a left-fielder. He split 2008 between A-ball and High-A and hit .281/.357/.451 with an ISO of .169 at the senior level.

Catcher Devin Mesoraco was drafted 15th overall out of high school in 2007 but his bat has been slow to develop in pro ball. He hit just .216 in his pro debut and posted a 2008 line of .261/.311/.399 in 206 at-bats. He also posted rates of 6.1 BB% and 20.9 K%. Perhaps my favorite Reds sleeper prospect, Neftali Soto was selected in the third round of the 2007 draft out of Puerto Rico. In two seasons, the 19-year-old third baseman (originally a shortstop) has hit .327/.360/.522 in 437 at-bats and spent 52 games in A-ball last season after beginning the year in extended spring training. He could open 2009 in High-A ball.

First baseman Yonder Alonso was the club’s first-round pick in 2008 and he could move quickly, despite appearing in just six High-A ball games in 2008 after signing late (He hit .316). Alonso, 21, made up for lost time by playing in the Hawaii Winter Baseball league and he hit .308/.419/.510 with four home runs in 104 at-bats. He also walked 20 times in 29 games.

SS/R Prospects:
Outfielders Yorman Rodriguez, 16, (Venezuela) and Juan Duran, 17, (Dominican Republic) were both signed as amateur free agents. Duran spent 2008 in extended spring training and then appeared in rookie ball and hit just .216, but he displayed plus-power potential and good speed. Rodriguez came over to North America for instructional league after the regular season ended and has the best outfield arm in the system, but he is still learning how to hit breaking balls.

Up Next: Kansas City Royals

These lists do not include all the talented prospects in each system – just a snap shot. Some players have been left out because I have covered them recently and not much has changed (You can link to the older posts from each player’s FanGraphs page) or I am planning a separate post on them in the very near future.

The Detroit Tigers organization is still hurting in terms of depth, but the club added some advanced college arms in the 2008 draft, and they are expected to move quickly. The club does, though, have one of the top prep pitchers from the 2007 draft.

AAA/AA Prospects:
Jeff Larish, 26, had a solid college career but has moved slowly during his pro career and made his MLB debut at the age of 25. He hit .260/.306/.375 with a .115 ISO in 104 at-bats (40 games). His rates at the MLB level were 6.3 BB% and 32.7 K%, which are hardly encouraging. The first baseman’s MLB contact rate was just 73.4%, including a 43.2% contact rate at pitches outside the strike zone. Larish is a borderline quad-A player.

Dusty Ryan, 24, had an unexpectedly solid offensive season in 2008, but beware of flukes. In his first four pro seasons he hit 21 home runs. Last season, he hit 19. Even with his 2008 numbers figured in, Ryan’s career minor league line is .237/.326/.386 in 1,250 at-bats. His career strikeout rate is more than 30.0 K%. Defensively, his biggest strength is his arm and he threw out almost 50% of base stealers in 15 MLB games.

Outfielder Wilkin Ramirez, a former third base prospect, hit .303/.371/.522 with an ISO of .219 in 433 Double-A at-bats. He slugged 19 home runs and stole 26 bases (in 38 attempts). He is still rough around the edges with rates of 9.0 BB% and 31.9 K%. Defensively, he is pretty much limited to left field despite his speed.

A+/A Prospects:
Rick Porcello was the 27th overall pick from 2007 out of a New Jersey high school but he did not make his pro debut until 2008. Despite the late start, he jumped all the way to High-A ball and held his own. Porcello allowed just 116 hits in 125 innings. On the downside, his strikeout rate was just 5.18 K/9. The right-hander did have a nice walk rate for such a young player at 2.38 BB/9.

Speaking of No. 1 draft picks, Ryan Perry was nabbed in the first round of the 2008 draft and I discussed him here. Cody Satterwhite was another college arm drafted in 2008, who is expected to be on the fast-track in 2009. He’s a frustrating player – and has been since high school – because his results never match his talent, which includes a high-90s fastball. His secondary stuff is lacking, and that is one of the reasons why he’s been moved to the bullpen.

First baseman Ryan Strieby slugged 29 home runs in 2008 at High-A ball. The 23-year-old hit .278/.352/.563 with an ISO of .285. The ISO has increased for three straight seasons from .095 to .169 to his 2008 rate. With a walk rate of just 9.9 BB%, Strieby needs to be more patient. He struck out 24.0 K%.

The Tigers are promoting Cale Iorg, 23, aggressively even though he missed two seasons while on a Mormon mission. He hit .251/.329/.405 with 10 home runs and 22 stolen bases in 383 at-bats in his first full pro season in High-A ball. Iorg has a ton of athleticism but he is in need of experience. His 2008 rates included an 8.5 BB% and a 29.0 K%. Outfielder Casper Wells is another athletic player who broke out for half of 2008 after he jumped from A-ball to Double-A. It took him almost four years to get there, though. Wells hit 27 home runs and 25 stolen bases between the two levels last season. At Double-A, he managed a line of .289/.376/.589 in 270 at-bats. He posted a walk rate of 10.0 BB% and a high strikeout rate of 24.4 K%.

SS/R Prospects:
Casey Crosby was taken out of high school in the same draft as Porcello, but his career was slowed when he missed most of 2008 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. The southpaw is talented and can reach 96-97 mph with his fastball. Unfortunately, his secondary stuff is lacking – especially the breaking ball. His change-up is a potential second plus pitch.

Up Next: The Cincinnati Reds

These lists do not include all the talented prospects in each system – just a snap shot. Some players have been left out because I have covered them recently and not much has changed (You can link to the older posts from each player’s FanGraphs page) or I am planning a separate post on them in the very near future.

Well, after countless rumors over the last few offseasons involving a potential Brian Roberts trade, the second baseman has agreed to a 4-yr extension with the Baltimore Orioles. He stated that his decision centered around a desire to remain with the same team for his entire career as well as how the Orioles are going to shape up as players in the AL East sweepstakes throughout the duration of this extension.

Well… there’s that, or the fact that, if this offseason is any indication, a 31-yr old second baseman who would likely garner the Type A status is simply not going to get anything near this deal from anyone other than the Yankees.

The extension runs from 2010-2013 and will pay Roberts $10 mil/season for a grand total of $40 mil. Since 2003, Roberts has been a very productive second baseman. Dave wrote this afternoon about Orlando Hudson’s productivity, averaging +2.5 wins over the last four seasons. From 2003-08, the lowest win value posted by Roberts was +2.3, in 2004. All told, he has averaged +3.9 wins/season over the last six seasons.

Most people know of Roberts thanks to his gaudy 2005 campaign, in which he produced +6.3 wins on the heels of a .314/.387/.515 line, a .389 wOBA, and +5 run defense at the keystone. Following that career year, Roberts halved his productivity to +3.1 wins. +3.1 wins from a second baseman is very impressive but the mark paled in comparison to the previous season and many considered Roberts a bust. His critics were largely silenced over the last two seasons when he posted win values of +4.4 and +4.5.

Roberts’ fielding has declined since 2006, and does not shape up to get any better. CHONE sees Roberts at around a .360 wOBA worth +17 runs. Roberts is also a good bet to play over 150 games and amass 650+ PA. With that in mind, his 2009 win value components break down like this: +17 batting, -2 fielding, +23 replacement, +2.4 positional. Put together, Roberts looks like a +3.6 win player. In a normal market, that production commands $16.2 mil. If he declines by a half-win each season, and the average annual dollars/win stayed $4.5 mil, with a 10% discount for the contractual guarantee, the four-year deal would be valued at $46 mil.

Initially the deal looks better for Roberts, as he simply was not going to get this much elsewhere. Normally, it might favor the Orioles as they would have a hard time bringing in as productive of a player for $10 mil or below. If Roberts had been a free agent this season we would have a better idea of what he could have commanded but, as of now, I’m comfortable saying that the deal favors Roberts over the Orioles but that the Orioles are still getting a very productive player at a seemingly below market price.