The second base position is currently undergoing some renovations. For the longest time, keystone cornermen were primarily thought of as defense-first players, making any and all offensive contributions bonuses. With the emergence of power bats like Jeff Kent, and, more recently, guys like Chase Utley and Dan Uggla, the reputation of the position simply isn’t the same. Otherwise, an all-defense player like Mark Ellis would garner as much attention as the all-offense player Uggla.

Many second basemen these days achieve the middle ground, with a solid bat accompanied by decent fielding skills. Below are the win values, from 2006-08, for four different mystery second basemen:

2B #1: 28 yrs old, +1.6, +4.9, +3.2
2B #2: 31 yrs old, +2.3, +3.1, +1.9
2B #3: 31 yrs old, +4.5, +3.6, -0.6
2B #4: 26 yrs old, +2.7, +3.6 +0.5

The bookends are the youngest of this group, with #1 appearing to be the most productive in this three-year span. Nobody comes anywhere near Chase Utley’s +22.7 wins since 2006, but Utley is practically in an elite league of his own. Before the names of these players are revealed, I will let it be known that both #1 and #2 have reputations as being top-tier second baseman. Additionally, players #2 and #4 both missed significant time in 2008, leading to their lower win values that season.

In fact, let’s continue with the discussion of #2 and #4. #4 produced about a half-win better than #2 in each of 2006 and 2007, but played half as many games in 2008. In equal amounts of playing time, the gap in 2008 closes a bit. Regardless, since injuries are real and should not be automatically discounted, #2 has produced just +0.6 wins more than #4 throughout the last three seasons. Who are these players?

#1 = Brandon Phillips and #3 = Freddy Sanchez. #2 is current free agent Orlando Hudson, who, as I previously mentioned boasts the reputation of a top-tier second baseman. That leaves #4… Aaron Hill of the Toronto Blue Jays.

Yes, over the last three seasons, Hill has produced +6.7 wins to the +7.3 of Hudson, outperformed Hudson in two of the three seasons, and failed to repeat the feat primarily due to playing in just 55 games last season; Hudson logged just 107 himself, which amounts to two times the playing time of Hill. Why is it then that Hudson has such a prestigious reputation yet half of the baseball fandom could not point out Aaron Hill in a lineup surrounded by famous cartoon characters? Okay, maybe he could be pointed out in that lineup, but you catch my drift, right?

This is not meant to be a knock on Hudson, because an average of +2.5 wins/yr from a second baseman is still very good. However, his reputation seemingly elevates him past that mark. The major differences between the two are where the bulk of their value stems from. Outside of positional and replacement level adjustments, Hudson has an aggregate +24.8 batting runs and -12.7 defensive runs. Hill is largely the opposite, with -5.6 batting runs and +17.7 defensive runs. Fans tend to place a premium on offense so it makes sense that Hudson is more well-known.

Still, a run is a run is a run. Tom Tango likes to emphasize this point whenever possible: a run saved on defense = a run produced on offense. Hill might not swing a sexy bat but he sure knows how to use his glove. He is also five years the junior of Hudson. The O-Dawg is a very good player and will make whichever team signs him a bit better, but he is not necessarily an elite second baseman of the Utley or Roberts ilk. Even Phillips, three years his junior, looks better by comparison.

The second base position may be gradually inching closer to an offensive-heavy area, but league average hitters with very solid defensive skills are still extremely valuable, which seems to get lost in the Hudson-Hill comparison.

Though it may feel ages away, Spring Training is fast approaching, and for the first time in 11 seasons, Bobby Abreu has no idea where he will be playing. Abreu’s case has been documented numerous times here: his defense is poor and his bat, though still solid, is in decline mode. Add in that he turns 35 in March and Abreu just does not seem as attractive of an asset as he once did.

Factoring in the current scope of the economy it is not terribly surprising that his asking price was scoffed at, but the issue now deals with the depths to which his asking price will sink. On top of the factors mentioned above, something else is apparently contributing to his dearth of suitors and potential landing spots: teams are getting smarter.

As Dave discussed earlier, Peter Gammons wrote that teams are learning to value defense much moreso than before, leading them to worry about the potential number of runs guys like Abreu, Adam Dunn, and Manny Ramirez give back with the glove. I don’t think each and every team has suddenly hopped on the defensive bandwagon but rather that they recognize $16 mil/yr for three seasons is excessive for a 35-yr old with a declining bat and poor glove in the current market.

Had we just listed the attributes as opposed to the attached name, eliminating all aspects of reputation, the proposed deal would, without a doubt, seem ludicrous. With Abreu gradually decreasing his expectations, the last piece of news on the matter pegged him at 1-yr/$8 mil. At such a little commitment and a drastically lower salary, one could easily reason that a wide array of suitors would line up. This is yet to be the case. Abreu has been linked to the Braves, Mariners, Dodgers, White Sox and Mets, but a Mets official apparently reported that the deal would need to be for a maximum of 1-yr/$4 mil for the Mets to pull the trigger.

I cannot speak for the validity of that statement or how the remaining interested parties value Bobby’s skills, but 1 yr/$4 mil would be the same value, with one less year, that Jeremy Affeldt received from the Giants. The deal would be half of Pat Burrell’s average annual value, which itself was largely depressed. The deal would be $250K less than Brandon Lyon received from the Tigers and equal to the amount Abreu’s former employer, the Yankees, will give to Damaso Marte. I ultimately expect Abreu to sign for a bit more than $4 mil but it has been nothing less than fascinating to watch his asking price potentially end up at 1/4 of its original total.

This afternoon, we talked about the raising of the acceptable level of offense in baseball in the last 20 years. Alfredo Griffin simply wouldn’t be allowed to play full time for 12 years anymore – he was that bad of a hitter. However, Griffin’s -286.7 wRAA isn’t quite the worst in MLB history.

That belongs to Bill Bergen, who nudged Griffin by -1 wRAA – but needed 4,000 less plate appearances to do so. Bergen, a catcher from 1901 to 1911, was an unbelievably bad hitter, even in an era of bad hitting.

He got 3,228 plate appearances over 11 years. His career average was .170/.194/.201. That’s not a typo. He really posted a .189 wOBA for his career.

He hit two home runs. Two. In 3,200+ plate appearances.

His wRAA per 600 PA stands at a staggering -53.4. Remember, Griffin’s was -23. Over a full season, he was 30 runs worse than one of the worst hitters of all time.

Baseball has obviously changed quite a bit since Bergen played, so numbers can’t be compared straight across, but even for his day, Bergen was a miserable hitter. And yet, he was sent to the plate 3,228 times in his career.

Pretty amazing.

This post represents the first of 30 articles that will look at the top prospects in each organization. The posts will run for the next two months, leading up to the beginning of the 2009 minor league season.

The Pittsburgh Pirates organization actually has respectable depth in the upper two levels of the minor league system, although the club’s top prospect will likely begin 2009 in High-A ball.

AAA/AA Prospects:
Outfielder Andrew McCutchen is just about ready for The Show, despite failing to receive a September call-up in 2008 after spending the entire year in Triple-A. The organization has some depth with young, talented outfielders so McCutchen, 22, could conceivably head back to Triple-A in 2009 for a little more seasoning. Last season, he hit .283/.372/.398 with 34 stolen bases in 53 attempts. Speaking of outfield depth, meet Jose Tabata, who was obtained last season from the Yankees in the Xavier Nady trade. The talented, but raw, outfielder improved dramatically after the deal (from .240/.320/.310 to .348/.402/.562) and will begin 2009 in Triple-A at the age of 20.

Third baseman Neil Walker is a Pennsylvania native who was selected in the first round of the 2004 draft out of high school as a catcher. The subsequent move to the hot corner hurt Walker’s value, as did his struggles in 2008 at Triple-A, which included a .242 average and a walk rate of 5.4 BB%. He has Pedro Alvarez (see below) breathing down his neck. Starting pitcher Daniel McCutchen (no relation to Andrew) was also acquired in the Nady deal. He has proven himself in Triple-A and could fill in for the injured Jeff Karstens (another trade chip from the NYY deal). His ceiling is probably limited to that of a No. 3 starter.

A+/A Prospects:
Top prospects – and 2008 No. 1 draft pick (2nd overall) – Pedro Alvarez has already had a bumpy introduction to pro ball despite having yet to play in a minor league game – thanks to having Scott Boras as his agent. Despite the layoff, Alvarez could very likely begin the season in High-A ball and could be in Double-A before too long. It would not be a shock to see Alvarez in Pittsburgh by the end of 2009 or early 2010; the only player really standing in his way is Andy LaRoche, who hit .166 in 233 at-bats last season split between the Dodgers and Pirates.

A former 2006 No. 1 draft pick, Brad Lincoln missed all of 2007 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. The pitcher returned for 2008 and did OK at two A-ball levels. His FIP was right around 4.00 and his strikeout rate was around 6.50 K/9. Both rates should improve as he distances himself from the surgery. Now it gets creepy. Bryan Morris was a 2006 first round draft pick who… missed the 2007 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. A right-handed pitcher like Lincoln, Morris had a slightly more inconsistent season but is two years younger and will likely be in High-A ball in 2009. Lincoln should begin the year in Double-A.

SS/R Prospects:
Outfielder Robbie Grossman was signed away from the University of Texas with a $1 million bonus despite falling to the sixth round of the 2008 draft. He is raw and athletic and hit just .188 in Rookie ball so he’s a long-term project. Quinton Miller, 19, was another high school player who fell in the draft but was given a lot of cash to forgo a college career. He did not pitch after signing and Miller should spend the first half of 2009 in extended spring training before pitching in Rookie ball.

On Sunday, in Peter Gammons’ latest blog post, he talked about how baseball is falling back in love with defense. You’ve probably noticed that we’ve been beating the defense-is-undervalued drum for a while here, so it’s nice to see some mainstream recognition that glovework is still a significant part of a position players value.

In the post, Gammons talks about the Whitey Herzog Cardinals, the ones who had Ozzie Smith and Willie McGee and Andy Van Slyke. Remember, that St. Louis team in 1985 started Vince Coleman in left field, even though he hit one home run and slugged .335 that season. They went with a speed-and-defense outfield, eschewing power outside of Jack Clark. Is that where we’re headed once again?

In short, I don’t think so. The concept of what the acceptable level of offense from a position player is has dramatically shifted over the last 20 years. In 1979, Alfredo Griffin claimed the starting SS job for the Toronto Blue Jays, and he would essentially have a full-time job through 1991. In his career, he racked up 7,330 plate appearances despite a .268 wOBA. His career wRAA is -286.7, or -24 runs per 600 PA. In 1990, the Dodgers gave him 502 plate appearances in which he posted a .227 wOBA, good for a -35.7 wRAA on the season.

Griffin’s not the only example of guys who were absolutely terrible hitters racking up substantial playing time. Ozzie Guillen got 7,133 PA and accumulated -282 wRAA. Tim Foli – 6,573 PA, -242 wRAA. Everyone knew these guys couldn’t hit, but they played anyway.

In the 1990s, however, that shifted. Yes, we still saw players like Rey Ordonez make the majors, but he lasted just 3,407 plate appearances before teams decideed that his defense didn’t make up for his lack of offense. Rey Sanchez is almost exactly the same level of hitter as Griffin (-23.5 wRAA per 600 PA), but managed just over 5,000 career PA, and was only handed a regular everyday job by one organization, who fixed their error after two and a half years.

Likewise, Neifi Perez has managed just over 5,000 career PA while producing at a level similar to Foli. Royce Clayton is the worst modern hitter to rack up 8,000+ PA, and he’s “only” -15 wRAA per 600 PA. Quite simply, the acceptable baseline level of offense has gone up, and probably correctly so.

While it’s great to see teams valuing defense more and more, I don’t think we’re heading back to Whitey Herzog’s baseball. After the over-emphasis on defense in the 1970s and 1980s, and the over-emphasis of offense in the 1990s and 2000s, we might actually be headed towards middle ground.

Give the Cardinals credit for innovative thinking. Often we see teams turn defensively sluggish second basemen into outfielders, but rarely do we see outfielders turning into second basemen. In fact, the only outfield-to-second transition I could come up with is Jeff Baker, who played third base, the outfield, and first base before spending 49 games at second this year. His defense actually got worse if you rely on that one data point.

In case you hadn’t heard yet, there’s a possibility of former part-time college shortstop Skip Schumaker moving to second base. The odds of this occurring are rising given Adam Kennedy’s release. Schumaker will have competition from players familiar with the middle infield, like Joe Thurston and Brendan Ryan, but for a team stacked with outfielders the Cardinals are at least trying to put their best eight on the field.

Unfortunately, it may not work out.

Moving from the corner outfield to second gives Schumaker roughly 10 more runs in value – or a win – considering he would earn -7.5 runs in either corner and 2.5 at second. CHONE projects his bas to be worth 0.2 runs while Marcels says 0.9 runs. Let’s be generous and assume Schumaker’s 2008 offense would repeat, 6 runs above average. Schumaker’s outfield defense has yet to rate as anything but average. That raises the question, how poor defensively can he stand to be at second base and still hold value?

Over the last five years, the worst defensive second basemen with at least 500 innings have been Jeff Kent (-11.5), Dan Uggla (-13), Jose Vidro (-14.2), Robinson Cano (-18.4), and Vidro again (-13.5). That’s an average of -14 runs. If we assume Schumaker is at least -14 and at worst -20 runs at second base we come up with the following:

(Runs)
OFF: 6
POS: 2.5
REP: 20
DEF: -14

14.5 runs/1.45 wins.

OFF: 6
POS: 2.5
REP: 20
DEF: -20

8.5 runs/0.85 wins.

The first scenario isn’t too bad, but Adam Kennedy was worth 1.7 wins last year. If the Cardinals are looking for an upgrade they need Schumaker to improve on an all ready generous offensive estimate or be better than hideous at second base. The Fans Scouting Report does suggest that Schumarker has a good first step, speed, and an arm that would seemingly play up at second base. In fact, his most similar fielders include two second basemen, Howie Kendrick and Robert Andino. Both of those are above average fielding second basemen.

Schumaker’s conversion will be one of the more interesting stories in spring training. If this works out, the Cardinals will successfully reallocate assets on the diamond without taking on excess salary or baggage.

Adam Kennedy was released by the Cardinals today so that they can play someone else at second base instead while eating Kennedy’s $4M salary. Who that replacement will be seems pretty muddled at this point. Going by various depth charts, possible contenders include Brendan Ryan, Brian Barden, Joe Thurston, Tyler Greene (for symmetry purposes I guess) Jarrett Hoffpauir and Skip Schumaker.

Kennedy hasn’t been much with the bat lately, but he’s still slick with the glove, clocking in around five runs above average these days. His projected wOBA is about in the .300 to .305 range, makes him worth about 17 runs below average with the bat. Toss in the 2.5 runs for second base and the five for his glove and you end up with a player that looks like he’s worth around a win over replacement. That’s just about exactly what his $4 million salary demanded for fair value.

Either way, Adam Kennedy is now out of a job and doesn’t come with the Type A penalty that Orlando Hudson does. It will be interesting to see what kind of market develops for his services given that he’s already being paid for this season by the Cardinals assuming no trade is worked out and he gets fully released. At that point, Kennedy probably shops around for the best chance to receive playing time and/or win a championship depending on his personal priorities because it’s highly unlikely any team would offer him more than the $4 million he would need to benefit out of the process.

Going back to the opening paragraph, what I really do not get is the releasing of Kennedy when the Cardinals do not have a clear cut player who is better. What was the point of doing this now unless they know they can work out a trade within the next 10 days?

Jayson Stark, ESPN:

Nominate any scandal in the history of sports. My vote is that this is worse.

Geoff Baker, Seattle Times

This might be the worst scandal in the history of sports.

Ted Keith, Sports Illustrated

A-Rod controversy spoils entire 2009 campaign before it begins.

Alex Rodriguez taking steroids is the worst scandal in the history of sports. This revelation has ruined baseball for 2009. The world is coming to an end.

Here on FanGraphs, we’ve introduced people to a lot of new metrics over the last few years. Whether its been WPA or wOBA or FIP or UZR, we’re constantly quantifying things and giving them acronyms. So, today, I’d like to introduce you to a new one.

HI.

No, I’m not saying hello. Welcome to our newest metric – the Hyperbole Index. This measures the hilarious (and simultaneously sad) overreaction of sports writers to every event that now occurs on earth.

Santonio Holmes makes a nice catch to give Pittsburgh a Super Bowl win in a game they were hardly ever trailing? The Greatest Super Bowl Ever.

Manny Ramirez hits well for two months in Los Angeles? The Best Clutch Performance Of All Time.

Alex Rodriguez admits steroid use five years ago. The Greatest Scandal In Sports History. The 2009 Season Is Ruined.

Using the Hyperbole Index, we can quantify just how ridiculous these claims really are. There’s no more wondering how the high horses of today compare with the bully pulpits of yesteryear. Using this handy tool, you can now compare the dead horses currently getting beaten to the whipped carcasses (carcii?) of long ago.

So, stay tuned*. As your favorite writers compete to make the most ridiculous claims in the history of the universe (this sentence fragment has an HI of 183), we’ll be right here to tell you just how ridiculous their hyperbole really is. Who will win the battle to be the writer with the most HI? We won’t know until next week, which I’ve heard is going to be the most fantastic seven day stretch since living things populated the planet.

Read the rest of this entry »

Over the weekend, Andruw Jones signed a minor league contract with the Texas Rangers that will pay him $500,000 if he makes the opening day roster and has incentives that could push his total compensation up to just over $1 million. This is, obviously, a huge fall from last winter, when he coaxed an $18 million per year salary out of the Dodgers based on his strong performance history.

However, as we all know, Jones’ career track has been on a noticeable downward trend. Let me show you four seasons of performance:

Age 26: .321/.390/.561, .403 wOBA, 679 PA
Age 27: .282/.346/.467, .348 wOBA, 675 PA
Age 28: .252/.333/.449, .344 wOBA, 555 PA
Age 29: .172/.261/.253, .235 wOBA, 253 PA

That’s a pretty nasty downward trend in what should be the prime of a career. From superstar at 26 to worst hitter in baseball at 29… that’s quite the fall from grace. Except, you may have noticed, those numbers don’t belong to Andruw Jones. Those numbers come from the career log of Jermaine Dye.

It has seemingly passed the memory of some, but it wasn’t too long ago that we saw a prominant right-handed power hitting outfielder collapse entirely at a young age. In what should have been the best years of his career, Dye posted one of the worst seasons in recent baseball history.

And then he came back.

Since that awful 2003 season, Dye has posted seasonal wOBAs of .338, .417, .343, and .346. In fact, his five seasons since his disaster season are actually better than the five seasons that led up to his collapse. Not only did he return to previous form, but he raised game even beyond previously established levels.

Now, in Dye’s case, there was obviously extenuating circumstances – he fouled a ball off his leg in the 2001 playoffs, fracturing his tibia, and faced significant knee problems for the next few years. There is no doubt that Dye’s health was a significant issue during his collapse. Once Dye’s knee regained full health, so did the thunder in his bat.

Should we consider Andruw’s weight problems to be similar to Dye’s knee problems? Well, we might have a lot less sympathy for Jones, who caused his own physical issues, when Dye was the recipient of some bad luck. However, whatever caused them, the underlying fact is that both had significant physical problems that limited their ability to hit a baseball, and that Jones’ problems are no less fixable than Dye’s were, given he puts in the effort to get himself back into shape.

Make no mistake – I am not saying that Andruw Jones, heading into his age 32 season, is about to rip off five seasons that match what Jermaine Dye has done since 2004. However, I think we should all keep Dye in mind when we jump to conclusions about what 250 terrible plate appearances mean in the context of a player losing all abilities to hit a baseball.

For the Rangers, this is a pretty terrific move. The Ballpark in Arlington is a great place to hit, and a little confidence goes a pretty long way when you’re trying to convince someone that their hard work has a payoff. If Jones really does commit himself to getting back in baseball shape to try and save his career, the Rangers could easily find themselves with a guy who reminds everyone that he can still hit a baseball.

Just like we shouldn’t have written Dye’s eulogy in 2003, neither should we kill off the career of Andruw Jones prematurely. He’s going to have to work his tail off, but there’s upside here.

Rangers sign Andruw Jones, Brendan Donnelly, and Jason Jennings (minor league deals)

Andruw Jones rejuvenation project, take two. Credit the Rangers for making a low-risk potentially high-reward move with Jones. Similar to the Omar Vizquel signing, if Jones makes the team and causes Josh Hamilton to shift to a corner outfield slot the Rangers defense will be much improved. Say what you want about the likelihood of Jones’ bat returning to the old days or the land of league average, but he’s still a decent defensive center fielder A replication of his 2007 season would still make Jones a pretty damn valuable player.

Did you know Donnelly was actually in the majors in 2007 and 2008? Yep, in 2007 he appeared in 27 games for the Red Sox, and last year in 15 for the Indians. Donnelly was actually decent for the Red Sox, but gave up a couple of homeruns and walked too many in his short Indians career. Donnelly also gave up 24.5% liners. For a team that lost Joaquin Benoit not too long ago, they need as many relief options as possible.

Unlike last year, if Jennings is hurt it won’t cost Texas four million in sunk costs, and if he’s healthy enough to be a ~2 win pitcher like the days of the past? Well, then the Rangers can come out even.

Reds sign Jacque Jones and Daryle Ward (minor league deals)

I promised myself I would withhold from making a Dusty Baker joke or related comment of sardonic nature within this write-up, and by golly am I going to stick to that.

Jones off-season included vision correction surgery and while there’s a possibility his eyes were the problem last season, what about all the years of moderate success? Jones had the worst offensive season of his career despite seeing his best walk rate. Jones power absolutely vanished, a 0.060 ISO is equal to Willie Bloomquist’s career average – and that’s after Bloomquist went nearly a year without an extra base hit. 2007 looked like a banner defensive season for Jones, as he +/- rated him at +12 in center and +2 in right, but alas last season Jones reverted to his career norms. Jones is a slightly above average fielder with an average-to-below-average bat in a corner outfield slot.

Ward is another former Cub, and one who happens to be a replacement level first baseman. Okay, that makes him sound like an extremely poor player, but assuming the Reds don’t bench Joey Votto for him – must resist Baker joke – Ward’s unlikely to make much of a difference either way.