With this crop of prospects for the 2009 MLB draft this summer being college heavy, a lot of fans of teams with high picks are following the performances of guys like Stephen Strasburg, Dustin Ackley, and Grant Green very closely. Right now, D.J. LeMahieu is getting a lot of buzz for his blistering start for LSU. Because baseball is such a statistical game, this is only natural. I just want to issue a word of caution – college statistics are just not that valuable of a predictive tool.

From the use of metal bats, the huge variances in quality of opponents, some parks that heavily impact run environments, and the smaller sample of games played, there are all kinds of adjustments that need to be made to try to translate NCAA statistics into something that resembles context-neutral. And, once you’ve done all that work, there is still limited value in the numbers.

For instance, let’s take Dustin Ackley – scouts rave about his advanced approach at the plate, and he’s universally acknowledged as the best hitting prospect in this draft. He has a compact, line drive swing and makes excellent contact. The only real questions surrounding him are how much power he’ll develop and what position he’ll play in the majors.

Since I have a database that contains a significant amount of college statistics dating back to the 1980s, I ran a query to try to find some comparable players to Ackley statistically. I wanted to see how many of these high BB/low K/gap power hitters there were, and how they did in the majors. Some of the names on the list may surprise you.

For instance, Brad Wilkerson was an absolute monster in college. His junior year at Florida, he hit .347/.538/.743, drawing 85 walks and striking out just 29 times in 222 at-bats. He also launched 23 home runs as 49 of his 77 hits went for extra bases. Oh, and he pitched, too. From a pure numbers standpoint, Wilkerson was as good offensively as anyone in recent college history. Obviously, that didn’t translate to the major leagues, as he’s been just a decent hitter, posting a career .341 wOBA.

It’s not just Wilkerson, either. Khalil Greene (.470/.552/.877) and Chris Burke (.435/.537/.815) had two of the best offensive seasons for a middle infielder in college history, and neither of them have been able to duplicate their success with wood bats. Mark Teixeira was a monster in college, but his numbers were surpassed by Dan Johnson. Alex Gordon and Michael Aubrey have virtually indistinguishable seasonal marks. Ryan Braun hit the snot out of the ball at Miami, but so did Jamie D’Antona at Wake Forest. If I showed you Chase Utley’s 2000 season next to Greg Dobbs‘ 2001 season, you couldn’t tell them apart.

Good hitting prospects hit well in NCAA ball, but so do less good hitting prospects, and just using numbers, it’s basically impossible to tell them apart. We’re big fans of statistical analysis here, obviously, but we also need to know the limits of what numbers can tell us. When it comes to college performances, scouting reports are what you want – the guys hitting the fields everyday and looking at swings and athleticism do a better job of predicting which college players will hit in the majors and which ones won’t.

Dustin Ackley is probably going to hit in the majors. I’m saying that because scouts think so, not because he’s hitting in college.

The Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays are the three best teams in baseball. The AL East is a powerhouse division like we haven’t seen in a long, long time. When you look at their rosters, you see all-stars and MVP candidates abound. But the strength of those teams doesn’t just lie with their everyday regulars, but also in the depth that they have accumulated to safeguard themselves from injuries. The Red Sox and Yankees build up strong reserves by flexing their financial advantage, but the Rays have done it through numerous shrewd acquisitions and player development over the last few years.

In fact, I think there’s a case to be made that Tampa Bay’s junior varsity squad could hold their own against some full scale major league clubs. Take a look at this potential roster of guys who don’t have regular gigs with the Rays and their wOBA projections from CHONE.

Catcher: John Jaso, .323 wOBA
First Base: Chris Richard, .326 wOBA
Second Base: Adam Kennedy, .296 wOBA
Shortstop: Ray Olmedo, .301 wOBA
Third Base: Willy Aybar, .336 wOBA
Left Field: Ben Zobrist, .330 wOBA
Center Field: Fernando Perez, .312 wOBA
Right Field: Matt Joyce, .318 wOBA

Bench: Morgan Ensberg (.329 wOBA), Justin Ruggiano (.333 wOBA), Elliot Johnson (.286 wOBA), Chris Nowak (.319 wOBA), Michael Hernandez (.300 wOBA)

#1 Starter: Mitch Talbot, 4.57 FIP
#2 Starter: Jeff Niemann, 4.96 FIP
#3 Starter: Jason Hammel, 4.98 FIP
#4 Starter: Jeremy Cummings, 5.27 FIP
#5 Starter: Wade Davis, 5.28 FIP

Closer: Jason Isringhausen, 4.73 FIP
Setup: Jason Childers, 4.50 FIP
Setup: Jason Cromer, 4.65 FIP
Middle: Dewon Day, 4.62 FIP
Middle: Dale Thayer, 4.56 FIP
Loogy: Randy Choate, 4.27 FIP
Long: Jeremy Hellickson, 4.62 FIP

That’s a complete 25 man roster from the extra parts that the Rays don’t have jobs for.

Overall, the offense projects to about a .320 wOBA, assuming the manager was smart enough to run platoons with Richard/Ensberg and Joyce/Ruggiano and everyone stayed healthy – 8 major league teams finished with a wOBA of less than .320 in 2008.

The defense projects to league average or a little bit better – Perez, Joyce, and Kennedy are plus defenders, Aybar, Zobrist, and Olmedo are average-ish, while Jaso and Richard are below average.

The pitching projects to about a 4.8 FIP – there’s some useful arms there, but it obviously lacks a top notch talent, since it’s a collection of #5 starters and middle relievers.

Still, though, a .320 wOBA, average to above average defense, and a 4.8 FIP – we’re looking at a team that would score about 700 runs and give up about 825 runs. That’s a .415ish winning percentage, or about a 66 win team over a full season.

The collection of guys the Rays have in camp that they don’t have jobs for projects to be only marginally worse than the Royals and Astros.

People are going to hype this move as the Rays “adding an established closer” and such, but here’s a fun game, tell me who Player A is in this comparison:

Jason Isringhausen last three seasons, average win value: -0.2
Player A last three seasons, average win value: -0.3*

Izzy’s fastball has remained between 91-92 on average along with a high-80s cutter and a high-70s curveball. To his credit, Isringhausen does have a history of inducing groundballs and oddly two of the past three years have seen an uncharacteristically high amount of homeruns. Whether that’s due to Isringhausen or simply a luck thing is a guess at this point. Isringhausen’s strikeout rates have been right around his career average as of late, but recently inflated walk rates and homerun rates have sunk his efforts.

Over the last three seasons Izzy has K/9 of: 7.59, 7.44, and 8.02 to go along with BB/9 of: 4.64, 3.86, and 5.86. The homeruns really do stand out, since Izzy allowed 1.05, 0.55, and 1.54 over the last three years. For a pitcher with a career HR/9 of 0.71, that just screams oddity.
There’s a loose chance Isringhausen opens the season in the Rays bullpen, but it seems more likely that he heads to Durham, shows that he can sustain some level of health, and then finds an opening around the mid-season point, perhaps due to an injury or general ineffectiveness.

On a minor league deal, and for substantially less – the deal is worth 2 million max — than what a certain similar reliever is making, you can’t hate this deal. The Rays continue to add potentially useful depth in their minor league system with low-risk, medium reward types. Morgan Ensberg, Adam Kennedy, the boat of middle relief types, and Isringhausen may or may not add value to the 2009 Rays, but you can’t fault the thought process behind any of these moves, regardless of the result.

*Player A is Troy Percival

I’ve made a few changes to the stats pages. If things look a little screwy, as in the postseason stats are there by default, just hit F5 once or twice and all will be back to normal.

The Show/Hide options for the stats pages should be much snappier and some other things have been optimized which should make the pages load a bit faster too.

As an analyst, one of the aspects that I am obsessed with is boiling down seemingly complex questions into the simplest possible situation. Take evaluating pitches for example. John Walsh of the Hardball Times has an excellent method for identifying and ranking pitch types but a data request from my friend Jeff Sullivan got me thinking about a simpler model.

What is the best result for a single pitch, from a pitcher’s point of view? Clearly, the pitcher prefers a strike to a ball. An out would be best, but since we’re talking about a single pitch, an out means a ball in play which in turn means the possibility for a whole range of other outcomes.

A principle that I have been harping on for a few years now is the benefit in splitting up pitch results at a level beyond ball, strike and in play. In particular, I tend to categorize pitches as one of the following: ball, intentional ball, called strike, swinging strike, foul or in play. Why do I think it’s important to split things up like that? Because of graphs like these:

That’s strikeout rate on the vertical axis and league normalized swinging strike and called strike rates on the horizontals.

Going back to the question then, would anyone disagree that a swinging strike is the best overall pitch outcome for a pitcher? Not only does it result in the best possible singular outcome (a strike), but it adds a lot more information about the pitcher’s ability to get strikeouts, the best possible outcome of an at bat for the pitcher.

Looking at fastballs only and the percentage of them that a pitcher gets a swing and a miss on, there’s some names in interesting places. It’s probably no surprise that Scott Kazmir and Rich Harden were at or near the league best in 2008, but would you have guessed John Danks and Micah Owings would be right with them?

It’s probably not surprising that Dallas Braden had the lowest rate of fastball swinging strikes amongst starting pitchers last year given his typical 87-88 mph velocity, but would you thought Bobby Jenks and his mid-90s fastball would be near the bottom for relievers at a rate roughly half that of Ramon Ramirez? In fact, Bobby Jenks saw a significant decline in the amount of swings and misses he managed across all pitches in 2008, something to watch out for in 2009.

There’s no end to the amount of interesting (to me) data that can be looked at concerning pitchers.

The AL West continues to get more interesting. Capitalizing on a winter of depressed salaries, the A’s today signed shortstop Orlando Cabrera to a one year, $4 million deal – according to our dollar values here on FanGraphs, Cabrera has been worth an average of $13.5 million over the last four years, and hasn’t been worth less than $10 million in any season since 2004. In any other market environment, Cabrera would have received a significantly larger contract, but the combination of an imploding economy and his Type A free agent status drove down the suitors, so Cabrera had to settle for the best offer from the only team that expressed serious interest.

That suitor, of course, was an A’s team that has clearly shifted it’s focus towards trying to steal the AL West in 2009. With the Angels likely to take a significant step backwards in terms of wins, the winner of the AL West could finish with less than 90 wins. CHONE has the Angels as the best team in the division, but only projected to finish 85-77. The A’s, before signing Cabrera, were projected at 81-81, clearly within striking distance of a playoff berth.

So, how much ground do the A’s make up on the Angels with this move? Cabrera’s playing time will come at the expense of Bobby Crosby, so we simply need to take a look at their respective projected performances to see how much of a boost Oakland should expect.

We’ll start with Cabrera. CHONE is down on his offense, as 34 year old middle infielders don’t age particularly well. He’s projected for a park adjusted -13 runs offensively over a full season, slightly worse than the -11 he posted last year.

However, the A’s are acquiring Cabrera for his glove, not his bat – his UZR of +16.4 last year was the best in baseball among shortstops. Of course, it was also a significant leap over his prior two years performance, and we’ve consistently cautioned against using a single year’s worth of defensive data to project future performance. Over his career, UZR has Cabrera at +7.2 runs per full season, and he’s +7.9 over the last three years. A more accurate assumption about his defense going forward is that he’s above average to good, but not likely to be +16 again.

If we project Cabrera as +5 defensively at shortstop to go along with his -13 offensively, add in the +7.5 run position adjustment, and the +20 run replacement level adjustment, it adds up to +19.5 runs above replacement. Basically, that makes Cabrera a league average shortstop. If you think we’re underselling his defense, you can add half a win, but the A’s should expect Cabrera to be something like +1.5 to +2.5 wins above a replacement level shortstop in 2009.

However, while Crosby has struggled the last few years, he’s still been slightly better than replacement level. He hasn’t hit, but he’s played average defense for an SS, and his combination of -19 offense, +0 defense, +7.5 position adjustment, and +20 replacement level adjustment adds up to +8.5 runs above replacement over a full season, or a little less than one win.

In total, Cabrera should be about a +1 win upgrade over Crosby at shortstop for the A’s. Given their new roster, you can bump the A’s up to 82 or 83 projected wins, but they’re still a couple of games behind the Angels.

Is that win worth $4 million and a second round draft pick? Probably. The marginal value of wins rises significantly as a team gets close to playoff contention – the revenues generated from playing in October are significant to every organization. The A’s still aren’t the favorites in the AL West, but they’re not that far behind the Angels, and this move gives them one more weapon to try to bring down the Angels.

For $4 million and a second round pick, it’s a gamble worth taking.

The Cleveland Indians organization has amassed an intriguing collection of talent, although many of the key prospects have come via trades with other organizations. The club has drafted some interesting college players – while continuing to dabble in international signings.

AAA/AA
Matt LaPorta was the key ingredient in the C.C. Sabathia trade, from Cleveland’s perspective. The former first-round draft pick has been an offensive force in pro ball, although he was slowed by a concussion last season, which led to a dip in his overall numbers. LaPorta was moved from first base to left field by the Brewers organization, but he could very well slide back to his original position before eventually assuming the role of the club’s designated hitter. He is a stretch to be average in the outfield. The 24-year-old posted a .288 ISO at Double-A for Cleveland after coming over in the trade. LaPorta also showed a willingness to take a free pass with a walk rate of 13.0 BB%. He should be in Cleveland by the end of the summer.

Obtained in a deal with the Dodgers for the aging Casey Blake, Carlos Santana, 22, was an absolute steal. The offensive-minded catcher had a breakthrough 2008 and hit more than .330 in two High-A stops. He also scored 122 runs and drove in 115. Santana showed solid plate awareness too, by walking more than he stuck out (89/85). The Dominican native is still rough around the edges defensively, but he has enough arm and athleticism to remain behind the dish. With Victor Martinez and Kelly Shoppach currently catching for the big club, Santana has plenty of time to work on his defense.

Middle infielder Luis Valbuena was obtained from Seattle in the three-team J.J. Putz deal, which cost the Indians Franklin Gutierrez. The 23-year-old had the best season of his pro career in 2008, thanks in part to an increase in walks and a decrease in strikeouts. He hit more than .300 while splitting the year between Double-A and Triple-A. Valbuena also has the potential to steal 15-20 bases.

Wes Hodges has been quite consistent in the past two seasons, since signing as a second round draft pick out of Georgia Tech in 2006. In his two seasons in pro ball, at High-A and Double-A, the third baseman has hit .288/.367/.473 and .290/.354/.466. Hodges is still learning to tap into his power and he currently projects to hit 15-20 home runs per season.

Michael Brantley and Trevor Crowe are two outfield prospects that are borderline everyday players. Brantley was obtained in the Sabathia trade and has an exciting mix of plate discipline and speed. Unfortunately his defensive skills are average. The 21-year-old hit .319/.395/.398 at Double-A and he walked 50 times compared to just 27 strikeouts in 420 at-bats. Crowe always seems to take one step forward and two steps back. His numbers have been inconsistent and he got stuck in Double-A for parts of three seasons, before appearing in 34 Triple-A games in 2008, where he hit .274/.350/.486.

Kevin de la Cruz, 20, is a hard-throwing southpaw. Despite iffy control, he dominated A-ball in 2008 and allowed just 71 hits in 95.2 innings. He posted rates of 3.20 BB/9 and 9.03 K/9 before playing briefly in High-A and Double-A. De la Cruz will likely open 2009 in High-A ball. He can touch 95 mph with his fastball, and also has a curveball, sinker and change-up.

David Huff is another southpaw but he is a soft-tosser. The former first-round pick is almost MLB ready, although he may top out as a No. 3 starter. Huff has a four-pitch mix, which includes a high-80s fastball (that can touch 92 mph), a plus change-up, a slider and a curveball. He posted solid numbers in 2008 while splitting the season between Double-A and Triple-A. At the senior level, Huff allowed just 68 hits in 80.2 innings of work. He posted rates of 1.67 BB/9 (obviously he has solid command/control) and 9.04 K/9.

Perennial prospect Adam Miller was yet again slowed by injuries in 2008 and has already been battling them this spring. Realistically speaking, his days as a starting pitcher are likely over, although he could develop into a dominating late-game reliever with two plus pitches: a mid-90s fastball and a slider. Miller appeared in just eight games in 2008 but posted a 1.88 ERA and allowed 26 hits in 28.2 Triple-A innings.

A+/A
Slugger Nick Weglarz has taken some time to develop but it’s been worth it for the Indians. The Canadian has massive power potential even though he hit just 10 home runs in 375 High-A at-bats. Weglarz has walked 154 times in the past two seasons (232 games). Defensively, he has been playing left field but is better suited to first base or designated hitter.

Beau Mills is another slugger well on his way to Cleveland, although he was acquired from a college program, not out of high school like Weglarz. Mills unfortunately is yet another player whose best position is first base or designated hitter. He slugged 21 home runs in 2008 at High-A ball and hit .293, although he is less likely to hit for a high average in the Majors.

Carlos Rivera is an offensive-minded shortstop, not unlike Jhonny Peralta. Scouts rave about Rivera’s power potential but he hit just eight dingers in 2008 at High-A ball. The 20-year-old posted a line of .282/.342/.411 in 411 at-bats. Defensively, he has a strong arm but Rivera’s range is average at best.

Right-handed pitcher Hector Rondon had a breakout season in 2008, while pitching in High-A ball. He allowed 130 hits in 145 innings, while posting rates of 2.61 BB/9 and 9.00 K/9. Rondon has a fastball that can hit 95 mph, as well as two developing secondary pitches: a curveball and a change-up.

SS/R
Lonnie Chisenhall was the club’s No. 1 draft pick in 2008 despite questions surrounding his make-up after some legal trouble while in school. The 20-year-old shortstop had a nice pro debut last year and hit .290/.355/.438 in 276 at-bats. Chisenhall has solid power pontential, which will make his eventual move to third base less troubling. He could move quickly for such a young player.

Up Next: The San Francisco Giants

These lists do not include all the talented prospects in each system – just a snap shot. Some players have been left out because I have covered them recently and not much has changed (You can link to the older posts from each player’s FanGraphs page) or I am planning a separate post on them in the very near future.

Over the weekend, the guys at Fire Jim Bowden got the result they’ve been asking for – while he resigned instead of being publicly canned, Bowden is out as general manager of the Washington Nationals. While he was able to survive 100 loss seasons and a reputation in the game as one of the least liked front office people around, he couldn’t sidestep the mismanagement of the team’s Dominican operations and the scandal surrounding Jose Rijo’s academy and the signing of Esmailyn Gonzalez.

So now, the Nationals have to pick a new leader, a new direction, and try to right a ship that is honestly quite damanged. Despite a new park, fans haven’t responded by paying to watch a bad team, and the farm system isn’t brimming with young talent ready to lead the team into the future. The roster is a mix of underachieving outfielders, overachieving outfielders, correctly achieving outfielders, a couple of backup outfielders, and some role player-type outfielders in camp on minor league contracts. There’s also a couple of pitchers hanging around.

For whoever inherits the GM job, whether it’s Mike Rizzo, Tony LaCava, or someone else entirely, they’re going to have to make some significant adjustments quickly. This roster just doesn’t make a team, and there are too many pieces that just don’t fit together. The Nationals need to shuffle some pieces around.

That starts with Nick Johnson. In the last year of a three year contract that has seen him barely take the field, he’s owed $5.5 million for 2009 and then will hit free agency. He just doesn’t fit into the team’s future plans in any way, shape, or form. Meanwhile, the signing of Adam Dunn made an already crowded outfield even more confusing, and his defensive limitations really should keep him from having to chase fly balls around. In short, Dunn needs to play first base, which puts Johnson out of a job. The new GM would be well served to find a spot for him on another roster, even if it means picking up some of his contract in order to get a potentially useful player at another position in return.

Once you get Dunn out of the outfield mix, the logjam frees up a little bit – Milledge and Dukes play when they’re healthy, with Kearns/Willingham/Harris splitting the remaining outfield spot between them. You’d hope that Kearns plays well enough to re-establish some trade value in the summer, so getting him playing time should be a priority.

And, speaking of the summer, perhaps no decision will loom bigger for the Nationals than how to spend the #1 pick in the draft this June. Stephen Strasburg is everyone’s number one prospect, and while he’s going to demand significant money, the Nats just aren’t in a position to pass on him. When you’re attempting to re-establish credibility for your franchise, and there’s a consensus top talent available in a draft where you have the pick of the litter, you have to take that guy. The new GM would be wise to make that a prerequisite for accepting the job – he has to have ownership approval to draft and sign Strasburg this summer.

It’s not going to be an easy job patching the holes that Bowden put in the ship, but it can be done. It just has to start quickly.

I am a big proponent of the low risk signings with minimal commitment and non-roster invitations to Spring Training. The players involved are forced to audition their talent and do not get a free pass based on a glimmer or more of success in the past. For instance, the Mark Prior signings of the last two seasons make complete sense given that Prior cost very little and he was merely looking for a deal that would allow him another shot at major league dominance. Well, two more of these signings took place this weekend, both somewhat questionable, but one more bizarre than the other.

The Phillies released Adam Eaton (finally) after two abysmal seasons in red pinstripes. Unfortunately he still had another quite lucrative year on the deal making it impossible to unload the flailing righthander. Add in that teams knew the Phillies wanted to rid themselves of their poor investment and it becomes very easy to see why nobody wanted to send any type of package to the Phillies in exchange for Eaton’s services when he could be signed “free of charge” with a bit of due diligence and patience.

The Orioles jumped on Eaton quickly, signing him to a minor league deal worth $400,000. Due to his release, the Phillies are still responsible for around $8.7 mil of Eaton’s salary. Over the last three seasons, Eaton’s win values of 0.6, -0.3, and 0.4 help illustrate the depths to which his performance has fallen relative to expectations. He looked pretty solid in 2003 and 2005, both seasons in spacious San Diego, before going to the Rangers in a trade netting the Friars Chris Young and Adrian Gonzalez. After a pretty miserable season in Texas, Eaton then signed a ridiculous 3-yr deal with the Phillies worth near $25 mil.

Somehow, this former first round pick of the Phillies ended up in arguably the most lopsided trade of the decade right before signing the most undeserved contract of the decade. Still, if he impresses in Spring Training, the Orioles have themselves a #5 starter with the Phillies footing the bill.

The signing of Eaton at least makes some sense given the aforementioned details, but I am still racking my brain for a reason to justify the Bruce Chen signing by the Royals. Granted, Chen was given a minor league deal, but how… I mean… why… Bruce Chen!? Chen hasn’t pitched since April 2007 when the Rangers allowed him five relief appearances that didn’t work out too well: 7.20 ERA/7.54 FIP.

Before that, Chen had spent three years with the aforementioned Orioles, putting together win values of 0.6, 1.5, -0.7. Even at his absolute best in 2005, Chen greatly benefited from a .267 BABIP and 78% LOB. In other words, his 4.94 FIP that season was hardly impressive, especially for a career year of sorts. Outside of that 2005 season he looks like a marginal fifth starter, if that.

Perhaps Chen has added a new pitch to his repertoire, has gotten married, or worked out to be in the best shape of his life, but I doubt any of that matters in terms of his skill level. These low risk signings should really be utilized by inking players with talent, unless there are extenuating circumstances as there are in the Eaton case. The Chen signing is not a low risk, high reward situation, because the reward the Royals will get might not even be of the medium variety.

I was watching the latest episode of Eastbound & Down, the HBO show about the fictional, ex-superstar pitcher Kenny Powers and I was trying to figure out how good a pitcher he actually was. Turns out he has his very own fake website complete with stats:

Season Team   G    IP  W   L  SV   SO  BB  ER    ERA  Value Wins
2001   GWT*  15  23.0  4   0  12   28   0   1   0.39    ----
2002   ATL   62  66.1  7   3  49  106  30  21   2.85    1.75
2003   NYA   64  62.2  7   3  39   79  20  33   4.74    1.13
2004   SFG   52  54.2  3  10  30   44  27  40   6.59   -0.46
2005   BOS   15  12.2  0   6   3    6   9  12   8.57   -0.31

Over the course of his relatively short career he was conservatively 2-some wins over replacement. His home run stats weren’t available so I just set them at 25% of his earned runs. That’s probably a bit high for his peak years, so maybe give him 3 wins if you want to be generous.

He barely made it to arbitration eligibility before he left baseball, so the dollar numbers aren’t too relevant.

In any event, the self proclaimed “greatest pitcher there ever was” didn’t even make it into the top 10 relief pitchers in his best season, but I’m still rooting for a comeback.