Now that we’ve completed the Organizational Rankings series, I wanted to spend a few posts talking about some of the points raised about different organizations. Specifically, it became clear to me that a couple of teams are wildly overrated and are likely to finish with a significantly worse record than a lot of you believe. No team fits the bill more than the Florida Marlins.

It became clear in the comments that a lot of you think the Marlins might actually be pretty good this year. They won 84 games last year, after all, and are full of young players, so the immediate future is bright, right?

Sorry, but no.

CHONE projects the Marlins to finish 75-87. PECOTA says 70-92. THT has them going 72-90.

Why the 10+ win drop-off from last year? Regression to the mean.

Dan Uggla, Jorge Cantu, and John Baker all performed at offensive levels last year that they simply can’t be expected to repeat. The projected regression from those three will cost the Marlins 30+ runs off of their ’08 total. That’s a big deal.

On the pitching side, Scott Olsen, Joe Nelson, and Kevin Gregg have all been shipped off, and while none of them should have been counted on to repeat their performances, it’s also unlikely that the Marlins will be able to replace those 320+ innings with a similar performance. The increase in innings given to Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad (another guy whose performance will regress), and Anibal Sanchez will simply attempt to compensate for the useful performances that they lost from last year.

Last year, the Marlins outscored their opponents by three runs while getting unsustainable performances from a lot of players. The idea that the Marlins have any real shot at contending for a playoff spot this year is a myth. They’re an also-ran, far closer to the Nationals in ability than the Mets, Phillies, or Braves. It’s more likely that they finish last in the NL East than first.

Don’t buy into the hype of the Marlins as a young team that could surprise. The only people who will be surprised by the Marlins this year are those that expect them to contend.

It’s almost opening day, and it seems like everyone is talking about projections.

When considering a projection, there are really two questions to be answered – what is the player’s “True Talent Level” right now, and how will he perform next year? Between now and the end of next year, his talent level very well might change, as he’s a year older and might recover from or succumb to injuries. Even then, there’s still the random variance of a single season performance. In this article I’d like to explore how some of the major projection systems work when predicting different subgroups of players.

I tested the following projections: PECOTA (2006-2009), ZiPS (2006-2009) CHONE (2007-2009) and my own Oliver (2006-2009).

By wOBA

The first test was to group the yearly projections to the nearest .010 of wOBA, and then see how that group of players actually performed. There were 468 players who had projections from all four systems, and had at least 350 plate appearances in the major leagues in the following season. As 2009 is yet to be played, and CHONE is not available for 2006, these projections to next year comparisons are for the 2007 and 2008 seasons. All four projections were tested on the same 468 players. The observed results were unadjusted major league stats, so that the results of the test would not be influenced by which park factors or MLE formulas I chose to normalize stats.

To read the results, CHONE of the players would have a wOBA between .375 and .385, averaging .380, 25 of them had 350 or more PAs in MLB in the following seasons, and those 25 players had an average wOBA of .363, so at that level CHONE was .017 high. Oliver was .008 high on 21 projections, PECOTA .027 high on 26, and ZiPS .014 on 26. The last line of the table shows the root mean square error (weighted by number of players). Oliver had the lowest mean error at .006, followed by CHONE .011 and PECOTA and ZiPS at .012 each.

Read the rest of this entry »

Tampa Bay Rays principal owner Stuart Sternberg recently said he does not foresee the team’s payroll exceeding 60 million either this or next year. One problem, the projected payroll for 2010 is already over 60 million, and that estimate is without the increases players like B.J. Upton and Dioner Navarro will receive through arbitration.

That means players like Dan Wheeler (3.5 million), Akinori Iwamura (4.25 million), and Jason Bartlett (at least 1.98 million pre-arbitration) could potentially be on the move sometime within the next calendar year. Speculating on what those players could return is worthless, instead examining the players that could eventually replace them seems like a more worthwhile exercise, if not equally subjective in nature. More so, let’s focus on the middle infielder who could make all the difference for the Rays future plans.

Dave mentioned Reid Brignac last week as a player most teams would love to have. Brignac turned 23 in mid-January, but is a veteran of the Rays system. A high school draftee, Brignac shunned a commitment to LSU in favor of playing professionally in 2004. Nearly five years later, Brignac is in the perfect situation.

Last year’s first overall pick, Tim Beckham, might be the eventual shortstop, in 2011/2012. That leaves a few years between the time when Beckham will be ready and Bartlett will no longer be affordable. Enter Brignac. Formerly the offensively touted shortstop with questionable defensive skills, Brignac has worked tediously hard at becoming a better defender, and his offense has paid for it. Since 2006, Brignac has posted wRAAs of 31, 5, and -7.8 when the levels are combined. Meanwhile, Minor League Splits, using TotalZone, has Brignac worth 12, 8, and 0 runs defensively in that same time span.

Whether the scouts were basing their defensive opinions that Brignac may have to move based on his 6’3” frame or something the numbers fail to capture is up to anyone’s guess. The interesting thing I found is that only two shortstops at least 6’3” tall have played at least 100 games in the majors at the position; Cal Ripken Jr. and Andy Fox. However, a ton of 6’2” players have spent time at shortstop, notables: Derek Jeter, Troy Tulowitzki, Bobby Crosby, Hanley Ramirez, and Alex Rodriguez…basically your modern day shortstops. Is Brignac destined to join that group? We’ll see. [Ed Note: After the fact, I discovered that the shortstops listed are actually listed as 6’2.5″ inches tall. My query was for shortstops EXACTLY 6’3″ inches tall and it did not round up. Therefore, you can pretty much include those five in the 6’3″+ category.]

If Brignac’s defense has truly reached the level of being plus (5 < x < 10 runs) then Khalil Greene is an apt comparison. If the Rays feel he’s at that level, it would make sense to allow Brignac played shortstop until Beckham reached the majors, then shift the weaker defender to second.

Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. kicked off his tenure with two under the radar moves: trading Greg Golson for John Mayberry, Jr., and sending Jason Jaramillo to the Pirates for Ronnie Paulino. Paulino, formerly the Pirates starter, fell out of favor with the team thanks to a perceived poor work ethic as well as the emergence of Ryan Doumit. After two seasons of league average production or better, Paulino’s abysmal .260 wOBA in 40 games and questionable defense made him very expendable. Amaro wanted to create some competition for Chris Coste in camp and felt that Paulino would be more major-league ready than youngster Lou Marson.

The idea somewhat backfired, as both Coste and Paulino stunk up the batters box this spring, leaving Coste with the backup position largely due to the familiarity factor. Paulino once again became expendable, and in needing to fill the void left by JC Romero’s 50-game suspension, Amaro sent Paulino to San Francisco for lefty reliever Jack Taschner, a questionable move in and of itself given that Taschner has been hit around pretty well by lefties over the last two seasons.

Paulino would not be able to settle down by the bay, however, as the Giants quickly shipped him to the Marlins in exchange for minor league right-handed pitcher Hector Correa. Correa, just 21, has shown an ability to miss bats but will need to harness his control to truly be an effective major league pitcher. This was not a 3-team trade, at least officially, but could very well have been the transaction equivalent to an unintentional intentional walk.

The Phillies get a lefty reliever to fill in for Romero; the Giants get a young pitching prospect; and the Marlins get a backup catcher. Unfortunately, the Marlins starter, John Baker, is more suited for backup duty himself. The Marlins had been after Chris Coste for most of the offseason but ended up with the other Phillies backup catcher. I have to wonder if Taschner would be any sort of an upgrade over merely slotting J.A. Happ into the second lefty role (behind Scott Eyre until Romero returns) and giving Chan Ho Park the fifth starter spot. Amaro has hinted that the team might carry all three of Eyre, Taschner, and Happ, but that seems unlikely.

Maybe Taschner will flourish in this role, and Paulino will reestablish himself as a solid catcher, but these moves do not really appear to provide upgrades for any of the teams involved.

While I was reworking some FanGraphs logos I noticed a striking similarity between 8 of the team’s colors choices. These are taken straight out of the team’s logos I found at sportslogo.net. You would think that there would be a little more variation in the colors used, with three of the teams even using the exact same red. You can hover over the images to see which team is which:

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The New York Mets minor league system sits in the middle-of-the-pack talent wise. There is some depth, but there are a limited number of high-ceiling players. A lot of the top-level talent comes from players acquired during the 2008 draft.

AAA/AA
Jonathon Niese was drafted out of high school in the seventh round of the 2005 draft by the Mets and it looks like the move is about ready to pay off for the organization. The southpaw split the 2008 season between Double-A and Triple-A, while also making a three-game appearance at the Major League level. Niese spent most of the year in Double-A where he allowed 118 hits in 124.1 innings of work and posted rates of 3.18 BB/9 and 8.11 K/9. This spring, Niese has struggled with his command and control but he should be one of the first pitchers recalled if an injury strikes the starting rotation. He has an 87-91 mph fastball, plus curveball and change-up.

Bobby Parnell is another young pitcher who has a chance of impacting the Mets’ big-league roster in 2009. Parnell, though, is likely headed to the bullpen despite spending most of his pro career in the rotation. Like Niese, Parnell spent time at three levels in 2008 but spent the majority of his season in Double-A. The right-hander allowed 126 hits in 127.2 innings of work and posted rates of 4.02 BB/9 and 6.52 K/9. He made six appearances out of the bullpen for the Mets and posted a 5.40 ERA despite allowing just three hits in five innings. He is being considered for a bullpen spot this spring, even though his control has been below average. Parnell’s repertoire includes a fastball that can hit the upper 90s, a good slider and a change-up.

Eddie Kunz was nabbed by the Mets in the supplemental first round of the 2007 draft out of Oregon State University. Kunz was a desirable commodity because he was expected to be near-MLB ready after his college career but he has been inconsistent so far in pro ball, thanks in part to poor control. He did have a solid time in Double-A in 2008, though, and allowed just 39 hits in 48.1 innings. Kunz also posted rates of 4.66 BB/9 and 8.01 K/9. He struggled in brief stints at both Triple-A and the Majors and will continue to work on his control in the minors in 2009.

If you don’t know who Fernando Martinez is, then you haven’t been following the Mets’ minor league system for very long. The Dominican outfielder has been among the system’s top prospects since he came to North America in 2006 as a 17 year old. Martinez rose as high as Double-A at the age of 18 and has spent the last two (injury-filled) seasons at that level. He has just 588 at-bats at Double-A in two years. In 2008, Martinez hit .287/.340/.432 with eight home runs and six stolen bases. For his value to really skyrocket, he’ll need to add more power to his game, but he is still young. Defensively, if he continues fills out and lose a step or two, Martinez will likely move from center to left field. He should spend most of the year in Triple-A.

Nick Evans will be familiar to most Mets fans because he appeared in 50 games for the club in 2008, but retains his rookie eligibility because he had just 109 at-bats. He hit .257/.303/.404 with just two home runs. Evans, 23, played in the Majors earlier than anyone thought he would be after injuries struck the big league club. He’s likely headed back down to the minors to continue developing his game at Triple-A. Evans needs to learn to make use of his power more consistently in game situations, and he also needs to be more patient at the plate after walking just seven times in his debut (6.0 BB%).

A+/A
Wilmer Flores, 17, has the potential to be an outstanding player after hitting .310/.352/.490 in 245 rookie ball at-bats in 2008 as a 16-year-old shortstop. It was an even more impressive performance considering that it was his first year in North America too. The Venezuelan also earned a few at-bats in short-season ball and A-ball, which is where he will likely spend the 2009 season. Defensively, he should move off shortstop to third base in the next two seasons. Flores’ power should develop enough to make him an impact player at that position as well.

SS/R
Brad Holt is already being considered the steal of the 2008 draft, having been selected in the supplemental first round out of college. The right-hander posted a 1.87 ERA (2.62 FIP) with 43 hits allowed in 73.1 short-season innings. He also posted rates of 4.11 BB/9 and 11.94 K/9. Holt’s repertoire includes a fastball that can touch the high 90s but his secondary pitches – a slider and change-up – are lacking, which could cause him to struggle at higher levels. Holt will definitely begin the 2009 season in either High-A or possibly even Double-A.

Jenrry Mejia and Jefry Marte are two more impressive Latin-America finds for the Mets. Mejia, a right-handed starting pitcher, allowed 42 hits in 56.2 short-season innings in 2008. The 19 year old posted rates of 3.65 BB/9 and 8.26 K/9 and should begin 2009 in A-ball. Marte, 17, is a powerful third-base prospect who hit .325/.398/.532 with 14 doubles and four homers in 154 rookie ball at-bats last year. Defensively, he is athletic enough to remain at the hot corner long term.

Both Reese Havens and Ike Davis were selected out of college ahead of fellow 2008 draftee Holt but they both struggled. Havens, who could end up as a catcher or second baseman, struggled with injuries and failed to appear in a regular season game. Davis appeared in 58 games but was a huge disappointment by hitting just .256/.326/.326 with no home runs and just 17 RBI.

Up Next: The Toronto Blue Jays

And we reach the end – the healthiest organization in baseball.

Rankings So Far

#30: Washington Nationals
#29: Florida Marlins
#28: Houston Astros
#27: Kansas City Royals
#26: Pittsburgh Pirates
#25: San Diego Padres
#24: Cincinnati Reds
#23: Colorado Rockies
#22: Detroit Tigers
#21: St. Louis Cardinals
#20: Toronto Blue Jays
#19: San Francisco Giants
#18: Minnesota Twins
#17: Chicago White Sox
#16: Baltimore Orioles
#15: Seattle Mariners
#14: Philadelphia Phillies
#13: Los Angeles Dodgers
#12: Texas Rangers
#11: Oakland Athletics
#10: Los Angeles Angels
#9: Arizona Diamondbacks
#8: Atlanta Braves
#7: Chicago Cubs
#6: Milwaukee Brewers
#5: New York Mets
#4: Cleveland Indians
#3: New York Yankees
#2: Tampa Bay Rays

#1: Boston Red Sox

Ownership: A

There are lots of not-so-flattering stories about John Henry and Larry Lucchino that make the rounds, and given Henry’s involvement in the shady three way sale of the Red Sox/Marlins/Expos and Lucchino’s issues with Theo Epstein, they’re pretty easy to believe. However, those stories don’t undo the fact that Henry’s ownership group has breathed life into the Red Sox franchise – upgrading Fenway Park, adding new revenue streams, and investing in the team in ways that simply weren’t happening before. They flex their significant financial power every winter, and have leveraged the Red Sox brand to give them non-monetary advantages as well. They want to win, they back it up with significant capital, and they’ve built the Red Sox into a team that can sustain high level payrolls and make a profit.

Front Office: A

Theo Epstein gets a lot of credit for building the Red Sox roster, and he should, but more than that, he should get credit for building a front office that brings many different voices together. It’s far from a one man show in Boston. Allard Baird and Bill James, Jed Hoyer and Ben Cherington, Tom Tippett and Craig Shipley – lots of voices with different ideas, all working for the same goal. The Red Sox aren’t just an organization of stat-nerds pushing their Ivy League degrees on people – they look for every advantage they can find, and will go to anywhere from Japan to the Independent Leagues to find talent. Having a significant amount of money certainly helps, but the Red Sox spend it well, and the results are a franchise that is run as well as any in baseball.

Major League Talent: A

The offense is going to be one of the best in the league. The starting rotation is strong and deep. The bullpen is even stronger and deeper. There are question marks about the roster, but they aren’t the kinds of fatal flaws that will sink a team. There’s depth behind the question marks, and so much excess pitching that swinging a deal to patch a hole won’t be particularly hard. The core of the team isn’t exactly young, but they don’t have any onerous contracts on the books that will keep them from reloading in future off-seasons, and the ’09 roster is certainly good enough to win right now.

Minor League Talent: B+

The system has more quantity than high level quality, with Lars Anderson as the elite prospect and then a bunch of good but not great prospects after him. Michael Bowden, Daniel Bard, and Josh Reddick are talented players but not likely to become stars. Junichi Tazawa opened some eyes in spring training, but questions about his role linger. Ryan Westmoreland, Michael Almanzar, Casey Kelly, Nick Hagadone and Ryan Kalish provide some long term hope. The farm system is good but not great, but when this is the weak spot of your organization, you’re doing a lot right.

Overall: A

Well capitalized owner who wants to win and invests in the product? Check
A cohesive front office that combines scouting and statistical analysis? Check.
A major league team that can win immediately and has pieces to build around? Check.
A minor league farm system that will replenish the major league roster? Check.

The Red Sox are the cream of the crop in baseball right now. There’s a reason players are taking discounts to sign with them, that they aren’t experiencing a brain drain in their front office, and that they win a lot of baseball games. They’ve built a baseball juggernaut, and it’s going to take some pretty large mistakes to bring down the Evil Empiore 2.0. Get used to the Red Sox winning, because it’s going to be a frequent theme going forward.

As we reach the top three, you’ve probably noticed that they’re all coming from the AL East. It really is remarkable how strong that division is. One of the three best teams in baseball isn’t going to make the playoffs this year, and probably for the next few years. These teams are all set up for long term success, and over the next few years, we could see the strongest division in the history of baseball.

Rankings So Far

#30: Washington Nationals
#29: Florida Marlins
#28: Houston Astros
#27: Kansas City Royals
#26: Pittsburgh Pirates
#25: San Diego Padres
#24: Cincinnati Reds
#23: Colorado Rockies
#22: Detroit Tigers
#21: St. Louis Cardinals
#20: Toronto Blue Jays
#19: San Francisco Giants
#18: Minnesota Twins
#17: Chicago White Sox
#16: Baltimore Orioles
#15: Seattle Mariners
#14: Philadelphia Phillies
#13: Los Angeles Dodgers
#12: Texas Rangers
#11: Oakland Athletics
#10: Los Angeles Angels
#9: Arizona Diamondbacks
#8: Atlanta Braves
#7: Chicago Cubs
#6: Milwaukee Brewers
#5: New York Mets
#4: Cleveland Indians
#3: New York Yankees

#2: Tampa Bay Rays

Ownership: C+

Since buying the team, Stuart Sternberg has completely changed the culture of the franchise. He instituted significant pro-fan initiatives such as free parking to help lure in an alienated fan base, put Andrew Friedman and Gerry Hunsicker in place to oversee a forward thinking baseball operations team, and began investing in the on field product. The Rays are never going to match Boston or New York in payroll, but TB is in a growth phase of their franchise – by putting on a quality product, they’re bringing people to the park, and the attendance surge will lead to expanded budgets. Their market will always make them compete on a budget, but they’ll be funded well enough to keep their team together.

Front Office: A+

Andrew Friedman and his gang have done tremendous work in putting this franchise back on it’s feet. The people who crow that they are living off of high draft picks from years of losing are just showing their ignorance. The front office has been brilliant at picking up quality role players, they’ve pieced together an elite bullpen from retreads and waiver claims, and the team’s best hitter was signed as a minor league free agent. They continually work to add depth to their organization, giving themselves multiple options to cover for injuries and unexpected declines in performance. They scout well, draft well, develop well, value their players correctly, and have locked up the core of their franchise to long term deals that add significant value to the franchise. The Rays are winning for a reason – this success is the residue of great planning and hard work.

Major League Talent: A

It’s really hard to find a weakness with this team. They’re the best defensive team in baseball. They supplemented their line-up by adding Pat Burrell to an already strong core of young hitters. Their rotation is excellent and deep. Their bullpen, while lacking a true proven closer, is full of good arms who get high leverage outs and preserve leads. Their backups could start on most MLB teams. The backups to the backups are even useful. They’re loaded with talent, most of it young, and there’s no reason to think that last yaer was a fluke. They’re a force to contend with both in 2009 and going forward.

Minor League Talent: A

Wade Davis, Desmond Jennings, and Reid Brignac would be a fantastic top three in any farm system. Most teams would kill to have a trio of guys that talented. And those guys aren’t even close to the team’s top spot, which is owned by David Price, the best pitching prospect in the game. Don’t forget last year’s #1 overall pick Tim Beckham. Or, the ridiculous pitching depth offered by Matt Moore, Jeremy Hellickson, Nick Barnese, and Kyle Lobstein. Just like the major league team, the system is deep and talented, and the waves of talent hitting Tampa aren’t going to end any time soon.

Overall: A

A smart front office, the best young group of major league talent in baseball, and a top notch farm system gives the franchise an embarrassment of riches. They don’t have room for all their quality players. Their depth is ridiculous, yet there are few weaknesses on the major league roster that could use an upgrade. The team’s revenue streams aren’t up there with the big boys, but their remarkable talent overcomes that limitation. The Rays are for real, and they’re going to put a contending team on the field for the next half decade at least.

Last time I railed a bit on the act of carrying three dedicated catchers on a roster. Tonight, with real substantial baseball news still coming in at just a trickle as we lead up to the start of the regular season, I decided to continue the trend. This time, it’s not such a cut and dry case as I think the three catchers issue is. Tonight’s issue is the 12-man pitching staff.

I believe there are a number of circumstances where it is prudent to carry 12 pitchers. My beef is that seemingly every team does it all season long and that just screams wasted roster spot to me. One only needs to look through usage patterns to see the evidence; relievers going six or longer days between appearances, that is a surefire clue that there could be better uses for that roster slot.

Namely, it boils down to this; I think the game has evolved lately into a situation where managers are paranoid about treating each individual game as if it were totally independent. But it’s not, not on a usage level. What you do in one game does affect what your options are in the following. How many pitches does a reliever throw each time he gets warmed up? 20, 30? How many times does he make an appearance which involves less than that many pitches? My hunch would be a majority.

Why not just carry 11 pitchers and if you are facing a game after a particular heavy usage day, just swap one or two out with the best available Triple-A relievers for a short while. They’re RP, and not dominant ones even, they’re almost the baseball definition of fungible assets.

Managers seem too cavalier to me in making pitching changes to try and extract the greatest possible match ups at that particular moment. Of course, that sounds good, right? And it is good, if usage was independent from game to game, but it’s not. And endless pitching changes to eek out an extra percent or two of favorability on a single pitcher-batter battle is focusing on the micro level and missing that if you relaxed your standards in that regard, perhaps you would be able to go with an 11-man staff and thus carry another bench bat which can provide you with a greater total contribution.

This specific topic, and roster maximization in general, makes for a fantastic area of research that in time I plan to get around to analyzing with hard numbers, but for now I just wanted to present something that sticks out to me every March as Opening Day rosters get set. What are your thoughts?

As we reach the top three, you’ve probably noticed that they’re all coming from the AL East. It really is remarkable how strong that division is. One of the three best teams in baseball isn’t going to make the playoffs this year, and probably for the next few years. These teams are all set up for long term success, and over the next few years, we could see the strongest division in the history of baseball.

Rankings So Far

#30: Washington Nationals
#29: Florida Marlins
#28: Houston Astros
#27: Kansas City Royals
#26: Pittsburgh Pirates
#25: San Diego Padres
#24: Cincinnati Reds
#23: Colorado Rockies
#22: Detroit Tigers
#21: St. Louis Cardinals
#20: Toronto Blue Jays
#19: San Francisco Giants
#18: Minnesota Twins
#17: Chicago White Sox
#16: Baltimore Orioles
#15: Seattle Mariners
#14: Philadelphia Phillies
#13: Los Angeles Dodgers
#12: Texas Rangers
#11: Oakland Athletics
#10: Los Angeles Angels
#9: Arizona Diamondbacks
#8: Atlanta Braves
#7: Chicago Cubs
#6: Milwaukee Brewers
#5: New York Mets
#4: Cleveland Indians

#3: New York Yankees

Ownership: A+

Say what you will about the Steinbrenner’s, but the Yankees enjoy a monstrous financial advantage over the rest of baseball due in large part to the way they have expanded the Yankee brand. The creation of YES Network gave them a significant revenue stream that other teams simply couldn’t match, and while they had an inherent advantage thanks to the history of the franchise, they have capitalized on that legacy more than any other team. The Yankees can literally spend any dollar figure they want on the team and still be profitable. Money just isn’t an issue in the Bronx, and that gives them a sustainable advantage that essentially ensures their competitiveness on a yearly basis.

Front Office: B+

Brian Cashman doesn’t get enough credit for the things he’s done right in New York. Yes, the payroll gives their baseball operations department room to make mistakes that no other franchise could live with, but he’s continually targeted the highest quality of players. He’s also redirected significant cash back into the farm system to develop home grown talent, and he’s shown that he’s an adept trader when he needs to add a piece to the puzzle. The money obviously helps, but Cashman is a good GM, and the Yankees are run well.

Major League Talent: A

With expenditures on major league talent approaching $250 million (including luxury tax payments), it shouldn’t be a surprise that they have a lot of good players. I don’t even have to name them all – we all know who the players on their roster are. The offense is terrific, the rotation is excellent and deep, and the bullpen still has Mariano Rivera. The team lacks depth on the infield and has too many outfielders, but that should be a relatively easy problem to fix. The core of the team isn’t young, but the team always has enough salary obligations opening up to be a premier spending in free agency, so that’s less of an issue than it would be for other organizations.

Minor League Talent: C+

Again, thanks to the financial advantage the Yankees have, the fact that they don’t have a great minor league system isn’t that big of a deal. Jesus Montero has a great bat, but he’s not a catcher in any way, shape, or form. Austin Jackson is a solid prospect who looks like a good bet to be an average to slightly above center fielder. Dellin Betances and Andrew Brackman have high ceilings and come with lots of risk. Besides Montero and maybe Jackson, most of the position players in the system are trade bait, as they probably aren’t good enough to start for the Yankees, so they’ll be shipped off for a major league player who is. It’s just the nature of the Bronx Beast.

Overall: A

When you outspend everyone else by close to $100 million, it’s hard not to win. The Yankees have done a fantastic job of creating a revenue model that works better than any other franchise in any sport, and they’re reaping the rewards of that advantage. Unless MLB intervenes and adds a third franchise into New York, it’s hard to see them ever going through a sustained down period. They are the Wal-Mart of baseball, and the machine is basically unstoppable. Love them or hate them, they aren’t going anywhere.