With the regular season inching closer by the day, teams are beginning to get a better feel for which bubble players are going to make the big league squad. As a byproduct, those squeezed out of the bubble are being released by their now previous employers. Two players cut in somewhat questionable fashion were Shawn Hill of the Nationals and Jimmy Gobble of the Royals. Both players apparently still look appealing to the league, as Hill is expected to sign a minor league deal with the Blue Jays immediately upon clearing waivers while Gobble is going to sign a minor league deal with the Rangers.

JP Ricciardi aptly compared Hill’s status to the team with that of Wade Miller’s, which makes sense given that both pitchers have shown spurts of effectiveness marred by longer periods of injury. With Miller, Hill, and Clement in camp, Ricciardi is essentially throwing darts while wearing a blindfold and hoping that one sticks somewhere on the board. If all three work out, great, but the moves are so low risk as to not adversely affect the team if they prove to be busts.

Hill’s modus operandi, as discussed last week, is fairly well known: he has a tremendous sinker, a career FIP just over 4.00, but a health history that would elicit chuckles from Chris Snelling. Hill has missed an entire season due to injuries, as well as large portions of other seasons, making just 37 starts over the last five calendar years. His 2007 season produced +1.5 wins in just 16 starts, but that figure actually happens to be the highest number of starts he has made in a single season.

Gobble was a once promising prospect in the Royals organization, a lefty who, along with fellow southpaw Jeremy Affeldt, would lead the team out of the cellar. His first two seasons did not necessarily go as planned, producing a combined +1.8 wins, with an abysmal 2.98 K/9 in 2004. The next season, Gobble primarily pitched out of the bullpen, and despite seeing a strikeout rate rise to 6.37, his control imploded, a fact made apparent by a 5.03 BB/9.

In 2006, Gobble quit relying on his fastball as much, incorporated a healthier dose of breaking balls, and saw his FIP improve significantly to the tune of 4.17. His strikeout rate soared above 8.5 while the control issues subsided resulting in a BB/9 of 3.11. Of course, since relievers accrue such small samples of playing time, their efforts are largely wasted in the win values column, but Gobble’s +1.1 wins in just 84 innings speaks volumes to his effectiveness. He followed that successful campaign up with another solid season in 2007, sustaining his FIP and experiencing minimal dropoffs in his strikeout and walk rates. Gobble stranded runners much better as well, posting just a 3.02 ERA.

Then, last season happened. Gobble’s strikeout rate fell to 7.7, which might not have been as bad if not for a revived implosion of control, with a walk rate well over six per nine innings. In just 31.2 innings, Gobble posted an 8.81 ERA, 5.85 FIP, and -0.3 wins. CHONE sees Gobble capable of repeating his 2007 campaign, which would likely be good for +0.3 to +0.6 wins. Even when struggling, Gobble still dominated lefties over the past two seasons, and if he retains this ability, the Rangers just found themselves a solid reliever.

Neither Hill nor Gobble could end up making their respective squads, but Ricciardi and Daniels have done a good job at identifying potential bargains by bringing these two aboard.

Today, we keep looking at some teams that have legitimate hope, so it gets harder from here on out. And, for those of you who haven’t seen the previous parts (which are linked below), keep in mind that this is a forward looking exercise – we are evaluating clubs on their overall ability to contend for a World Series title in the future. We are not evaluating how they have performed historically. This is about the health of each organization going forward.

Rankings So Far

#30: Washington Nationals
#29: Florida Marlins
#28: Houston Astros
#27: Kansas City Royals
#26: Pittsburgh Pirates
#25: San Diego Padres
#24: Cincinnati Reds
#23: Colorado Rockies
#22: Detroit Tigers
#21: St. Louis Cardinals
#20: Toronto Blue Jays
#19: San Francisco Giants
#18: Minnesota Twins
#17: Chicago White Sox
#16: Baltimore Orioles
#15: Seattle Mariners
#14: Philadelphia Phillies
#13: Los Angeles Dodgers
#12: Texas Rangers

#11: Oakland Athletics

Ownership: D

Lew Wolff seems like a pretty smart guy. I’m sure he wants to win, and it’s not really his fault that the A’s play in the worst stadium in baseball. But, since this section is about the team’s ability to compete financially with the rest of baseball, the A’s end up near the bottom of the pack. They don’t draw fans, they just blew up the Fremont option for a new stadium, and they appear locked in to the Oakland Coliseum for the foreseeable future. That means that they’ll continue to operate on one of the lowest payrolls in the game, and that puts them at a significant disadvantage.

Front Office: A

At this point, even the most ardent old school guy has to admit that Billy Beane is just very good at this whole GM thing. During their initial success, the credit was given to the A’s Big Three, but now that all have moved on and the A’s continue to compete with limited resources, it’s impossible to ignore the fact that Beane and his crew have done a great job of exploiting weaknesses in other team’s analytics to build quality rosters. They scout better than people give them credit for, and they obviously have a pretty firm grasp on statistical analysis. They aren’t perfect, but every organization in baseball would love to have Billy Beane in charge. It will be interesting to see how much longer he stays, though – rumors continue to swirl that he’s going to move upstairs and hand the job to David Forst in the not too distant future.

Major League Talent: C

The additions of Matt Holliday, Jason Giambi, and Orlando Cabrera have put the A’s in a position to compete for the AL West title this year, but when you look for a young core of major leaguers to build around, you start to realize that there’s not a lot here to be excited about. Daric Barton has a lot to prove and might have to do it in Triple-A. Travis Buck needs to stay healthy. Ryan Sweeney is a role player, not a building block. Gio Gonzalez, Dana Eveland, and Sean Gallagher are interesting arms with upside, but they’re all guys you want at the back-end of a championship rotation. They’re an ’09 contender if they can get a healthy starting rotation, but there’s going to be a lot of turnover at the big league level after the season.

Minor League Talent: A

Beane’s decision to trade off significant major league assets let him rebuild his farm system very quickly, and the A’s have some premium talents headed for the Bay Area. Few organizations have two arms that can match up with Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill, and Vin Mazzaro provides some extra depth behind the big two. Michael Ynoa is perhaps the most hyped signing out of Latin America in years, and provides a high ceiling long term asset. Adrian Cardenas, Jemile Weeks, and Chris Carter provide some position player depth, and I’m a bigger fan of Aaron Cunningham than some others. With a bunch of stopgap position players at the major league level, there will be open jobs for a lot of these guys for 2010, and the guys on the farm will be the ones they’re counting on to contend going forward.

Overall: B

If they could figure out how to get into a real stadium and generate some revenue, they’d have a chance to put a stranglehold on the AL West. However, that doesn’t look likely any time soon, forcing the front office to keep trying to win with tape and bailing wire. It can work, but it’s tough to sustain on a yearly basis, and some bad luck with prospect development could set them back for several years. The A’s margin for error just isn’t very large, and they have to continually make excellent decisions in order to stay ahead of the curve. They should be able to maintain their analytical advantage, but for how long? The rest of baseball is catching up.

Without a doubt, the bats are the strength of this system, and the arms are a weakness, which is a bit worrisome. With the possible exception of one pitcher, there really are not any prospects with No. 1 or 2 starter potential in the top half of the system… and you’d have to look pretty hard in the bottom half as well.

AAA/AA
Ryan Tucker had a sparkling 1.58 ERA in Double-A in 2008 but his FIP was ‘just’ 3.24. He allowed 64 hits in 91 innings of work and posted rates of 3.66 BB/9 and 7.32 K/9. That earned him a jump from Double-A to the Majors where he struggled. Tucker allowed 46 hits in 37 innings and struggled with his command by posting a walk rate of 5.59 BB/9. He showed a healthy fastball at an average of 93.5 mph, but he used just two pitches most of the time, which isn’t going to cut it in the Majors if he’s going to be a starter (He started six out of his 13 games). Tucker used a change-up more than 20 percent of the time, but he went to his breaking ball less than nine percent of the time.

Jose Ceda was picked up from the Cubs in the off-season for reliever Kevin Gregg. Although Gregg has experience as a closer, Ceda has far better stuff and could easy become the Marlins closer at some point. The 22-year-old hurler, who has battled some injuries this spring, has a fastball ball that sits in the mid-to-high 90s and can touch 100 mph. He also has a solid slider and a poor change-up. Last season, after beginning the year as a starter in High-A ball, Ceda moved to the pen in Double-A and allowed 26 hits in 30.1 innings. He also posted rates of 4.15 BB/9 and 12.46 K/9. He’s at least half a year away from contributing in Florida.

Outfielder Cameron Maybin was the key player obtained from the Detroit Tigers for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis and he had a respectable first full season in the Marlins system in 2008. He hit .277/.375/.456 with 13 homers and 21 stolen bases in Double-A. While he walked a respectable amount at 13.3 BB%, strikeouts continued to be an issue with a rate of 31.8 K%. Maybin received a short call-up to the Majors and hit .500 (16-for-32). He should be the everyday center fielder for the big league club in 2009, but may have some growing pains due to his high strikeout totals.

Gaby Sanchez should be the club’s starting first base in 2009, although he has had a poor spring to this point. The 25-year-old had an excellent season in Double-A in 2008 when he hit .314/.404/.513 with 42 doubles and 17 homers. He also posted rates of 12.6 BB% and 14.6 K%. He also hit .375 in five MLB games. Sanchez’ window of opportunity may be narrow with Logan Morrison entering Double-A in 2009.

With current Marlins second baseman Dan Uggla quickly pricing himself out of town, Chris Coghlan could be next in line for the job. In 2008 at Double-A, the prospect hit .298/.396/.429 with 34 stolen bases in 483 at-bats. He also walked more than he struck out (67-65). A third baseman in college, Coghlan is at least an average fielder at second base, which is more than what can be said for Uggla.

A+/A
The best pitching prospect in the system, Sean West is probably still a year away from being able to help the Marlins. The 22-year-old southpaw spent 2008 in High-A ball and allowed 79 hits in 100.2 innings of work. He posted rates of 5.36 BB/9 and 8.23 K/9. West struggled with his control last year after missing all of 2007 because of shoulder surgery. Even after the surgery, he can touch 96 mph and also has a slider and change-up in his repertoire.

First baseman Logan Morrison had a monster season in a good pitcher’s league in 2008. The 21-year-old slugger hit .332/.402/.494 with 38 doubles and 13 homers in 488 High-A ball at-bats. His homer total dropped by 11 from 2007, but the doubles increased by 16. Morrison has better plate awareness than most sluggers, with 2008 rates of 10.5 BB% and 16.4 K%. He was named MVP of his league. Defensively, Morrison has limited range but he possesses a strong arm for a first baseman.

Outfielder Michael Stanton has even more potential than Morrison, but he’s also a higher-risk player. Stanton, only 19, hit .293/.381/.611 with 39 homers in 468 A-ball at-bats in 2008. That power came with a strikeout rate of 32.7 K%, as well as a walk rate of 11.0 BB%. Obviously, that strikeout rate will not lead to a good average in the higher levels of the minors so Stanton will have to make some adjustments to avoid becoming Russell Branyan. Defensively, Stanton is an average fielder in right.

With Morrison and Stanton ahead of him, it’s easy to forget about Matt Dominguez, who was the club’s No. 1 draft pick in 2007 out of a California high school. While Dominguez’ numbers are not as eye-popping as the other two players’, he did have a solid first full season in A-ball, where he hit .296/.354/.499 with 18 homers in 345 at-bats. He also posted rates of 7.5 BB% and 19.7 K%. Dominguez is an excellent defensive third baseman.

SS/R
Kyle Skipworth was selected sixth overall out of a California high school but his just .208/.263/.340 in his debut in rookie ball. Considered the best catcher in the draft, Skipworth still has a long way to go with the bat and he posted rates of 7.6 BB% and 28.9 K%. Defensively, the catcher is solid and he threw out 36 percent of runners in his debut. He should move up to A-ball in 2009.

Up next: The New York Yankees

One quick note – for those of you wondering why these are so different from the “organizational rankings” I did on USS Mariner in 2007, it’s clearly a different criteria, which is explicitly stated in the explanation of that post. And, if you’re one of the 0.1% actually leaving intelligent responses in the comments section, I’m sorry, but for obvious reasons, they’re getting lost in the noise of the masses.

Today, we keep looking at some teams that have legitimate hope, so it gets harder from here on out. And, for those of you who haven’t seen the previous parts (which are linked below), keep in mind that this is a forward looking exercise – we are evaluating clubs on their overall ability to contend for a World Series title in the future. We are not evaluating how they have performed historically. This is about the health of each organization going forward.

Rankings So Far

#30: Washington Nationals
#29: Florida Marlins
#28: Houston Astros
#27: Kansas City Royals
#26: Pittsburgh Pirates
#25: San Diego Padres
#24: Cincinnati Reds
#23: Colorado Rockies
#22: Detroit Tigers
#21: St. Louis Cardinals
#20: Toronto Blue Jays
#19: San Francisco Giants
#18: Minnesota Twins
#17: Chicago White Sox
#16: Baltimore Orioles
#15: Seattle Mariners
#14: Philadelphia Phillies
#13: Los Angeles Dodgers

#12: Texas Rangers

Ownership: B-

Since Tom Hicks bought the Rangers, he’s poured a mountain of money into the franchise. The “buy a ton of free agents” plan didn’t work out, so now, he’s allowed the front office to develop talent internally, but the capital will still be there when they need it. Budget problems won’t be an issue as long as Hicks owns the team. He’s been too involved in some personnel decisions (the Michael Young contract, for instance) and the hiring of Nolan Ryan to serve as a check on GM Jon Daniels just added an extra chef to the kitchen, but Hicks isn’t overly meddlesome, mostly allowing the front office to do its job.

Front Office: B

Let’s just get this out of the way – Daniels has made some really bad trades, no question. The Adrian Gonzalez deal and the John Danks deal were bad moves that blew up in his face. But focusing on just those two moves hides a track record of identifying young talent and building a solid foundation for the future – he turned Ricardo Rodriguez into Vicente Padilla, Kenny Lofton into Max Ramirez, Mark Teixeira into Neftali Feliz, Elvis Andrus, and Jarrod Saltlamacchia (seriously, holy crap), and Eric Gagne into David Murphy and Engel Beltre. He identified Josh Hamilton as a franchise cornerstone, and though he paid a steep price in Edinson Volquez, building around an outfielder is smarter than building around a pitcher. The Rangers front office has done a good job of accumulating talent, and there are some smart people working in Arlington. If you just judge them on their recent win loss record, you’re missing the bigger picture – the Rangers are an organization on the upswing, and they’ll be reaping the rewards of their hard work shortly.

Major League Talent: C

From the perspective of a young core, the Rangers have a top notch group. Hamilton, Kinsler, Davis, Cruz, and the Saltalamacchia/Teagardan/Ramirez catching trio give the team impressive young talent at five positions, plus enviable catching depth that they should be able to convert into useful pieces that fit in elsewhere. David Murphy, Marlon Byrd, and Michael Young are solid role players that round out an offense that will be among the league’s best. The problem, as always, is the pitching. Kevin Millwood is the only decent starting pitcher the Rangers have, and he’s not exactly a building block for the future. However, with the team focusing on improving their defense by shifting Young to third and getting a real shortstop into the line-up, the team’s run prevention should be somewhat improved while they wait to develop a couple of arms. They probably won’t win in 2009, but they’re poised to be very dangerous in 2010.

Minor League Talent: A+

It doesn’t getting any better than this. Neftali Feliz, Justin Smoak, and Elvis Andrus might be the best prospects in the game at their respective positions. Derek Holland, Michael Main, and Martin Perez give the organization talented pitching depth. Engel Beltre and Julio Borbon have to fight to fit into the team’s top 10 prospects, while they’d be the best prospect in other systems. It’s just a ridiculous collection of talent knocking on the door in Arlington. Even with the attrition rate of prospects, they should get two or three franchise cornerstones out of this group, and that might be conservative. This kind of talent depth is similar to what the Rays accumulated a couple of years ago. That worked out okay, I think.

Overall: B

The Rangers have been a punch line for several years, but that’s not going to continue for much longer. With a remarkable group of young talent, an underrated front office, and an owner who isn’t afraid to invest in the product, Texas has the ability to get good in a hurry. By acknowledging their defensive shortcomings, they’ve already made steps in the right direction, re-aligning their talent to give their pitchers a fighting chance. Give them another year of development, and the Rangers are going to be a force in the AL West.

I’ll admit that I’m poorly versed in international baseball. I’ll also admit that I saw exactly zero of Korea or Japan’s first round games. Boxscores and second-hand reports were my only source of knowledge. Naturally, actually seeing and having data on these players has been one of the more rewarding parts of the tournament, at least for me, but imagine my surprise when ESPN flashed the Japan lineup and has a player named Hisashi Iwakuma playing second base instead of Akinori Iwamura, and yet Iwakuma had a Rays logo next to his name. Two thoughts came to mind:

“Wow, Andrew Friedman is sneaky.”
“Check the roster online, stupid.”

Now the Japan team did have a player named Iwakuma, but ESPN had incorrectly identified him for Iwamura since Iwakuma is a pitcher. After his game against Cuba, it’s safe to say he looks like a pretty good pitcher. Iwakuma started the game with a low-90’s fastball for a called strike and over the next nine Iwakuma threw a slider, curve, slider, change, change, fastball, fastball, fastball, and slider. That’s doing a good job of mixing pitches.

Iwakuma generated five swinging strikes and a 7:1 groundout to flyout ratio while cruising through 6 innings on 69 pitches. The most impressive thing remained how Iwakuma rotated through his pitches efficiently, using five pitches – each at least 10% of the time. 33% fastballs, 15% changes, 28% sliders, 13% curves, and 10% splitters. Iwakuma’s five swinging strikes came with these sequences:

Frederich Cepeda: first pitch change, next pitch fastball.

Ariel Pestano: second pitch splitter after a first pitch slider in the dirt, next pitch fastball.

Leslie Anderson: second, third, and seventh pitches, after a first pitch splitter, then a slider, then a change, next pitch was a fastball, then three consecutive splitters.

Iwakuma repeated pitches at least twice in a row only 21 times, three times in a row once, and four times in a row once. Either Iwakuma freestyles on the mound or his catcher, Kenji Johjima, loves mixing things up. Given Felix Hernandez obsession with his fastball, I’m going to start calling Iwakuma “Andre 3000”.

The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets have, over the last several seasons, reignited a rivalry that many have been hoping to see for quite some time. They have also combined for extremely memorable finishes in each of the last two seasons. Entering 2009, the teams once again project to be very close in talent, with the Mets solidifying their bullpen and the Phillies ridding themselves of Adam Eaton. Both of the teams also happen to be four men deep in their respective starting rotations, with a decent number of hurlers competing for the final spots.

With Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, John Maine, and Oliver Perez in the fold, Tim Redding looked to be the de facto fifth starter when he signed early in the offseason. Omar Minaya added some competition, however, by bringing prospect Jonathan Niese to camp as well as inking Livan Hernandez and Freddy Garcia to minor league contracts with spring training invites. Redding reportedly showed up overweight and has not been terribly impressive so far, giving up nine earned runs in just two innings of work.

Though we should never put too much stock into preseason statistics, you better believe that they play a part in the decision making processes. In 14.2 innings this month, Livan Hernandez has a 3.07 ERA and has not yet surrendered a home run. Sure, his 4.29 K/9 is below average and his success is likely smoke and mirrors, but he hasn’t looked too shabby. His low risk counterpart Garcia has been the opposite, allowing 14 hits and 13 earned runs in just seven innings, vastly reducing his chances of making the big league club. And despite being young, Niese has not looked great either, with seven walks and six earned runs in eight innings. He has shown a knack for fanning hitters, but his control needs improvement before we can consider him to be a viable and dependable major league pitcher.

Then we have Pedro Martinez, who as I wrote in a profile at Baseball Prospectus has seemingly been engaged in a one-sided game of hard to get with his former employers. The Mets apparently have an offer of $1-2 mil on the table for Pedro, and if the Dodgers fail to match these terms, Martinez would prefer to remain in New York. Assuming Garcia does not break camp with the team, and Martinez comes aboard, what do you do? Minaya will have Livan, Redding, Pedro, and Niese and just one spot available. Niese would presumably go back to the minors, but that still leaves Livan, Redding, and Pedro, with Redding being the sole owner of a guaranteed contract.

The Phillies situation is a bit easier in terms of the number of viable candidates left, but the remaining two hurlers have both been very impressive. With Kyle Kendrick and Carlos Carrasco out of the hunt, just J.A. Happ and Chan Ho Park remain. In 15 innings this month, Happ has a 3.60 ERA with 11 punchouts and just three free passes issued. Those numbers are bested by Park, who has a 1.54 ERA, 11 punchouts and no walks in 11.2 innings.

With the uncertainty surrounding Cole Hamels‘ availability, both Happ and Park could conceivably start the season in the rotation. If Hamels is available right away, the Phillies have a decision to make: which one starts and which one goes to the bullpen? The “logical” decision would be to place Happ in the bullpen to start the season given the absence of JC Romero for at least 50 games. Either way, whichever pitcher loses out will be close behind should the fifth-spot victor struggle.

If you’re a Mets fan, do you want Redding, Pedro, or Livan? And for Phillies fans, Park or Happ? And if you’re a fan of neither, who has the more intimidating name: Balfour or Broxton?

Today, we keep looking at some teams that have legitimate hope, so it gets harder from here on out. And, for those of you who haven’t seen the previous parts (which are linked below), keep in mind that this is a forward looking exercise – we are evaluating clubs on their overall ability to contend for a World Series title in the future. We are not evaluating how they have performed historically. This is about the health of each organization going forward.

Rankings So Far

#30: Washington Nationals
#29: Florida Marlins
#28: Houston Astros
#27: Kansas City Royals
#26: Pittsburgh Pirates
#25: San Diego Padres
#24: Cincinnati Reds
#23: Colorado Rockies
#22: Detroit Tigers
#21: St. Louis Cardinals
#20: Toronto Blue Jays
#19: San Francisco Giants
#18: Minnesota Twins
#17: Chicago White Sox
#16: Baltimore Orioles
#15: Seattle Mariners
#14: Philadelphia Phillies

#13: Los Angeles Dodgers

Ownership: B

This one’s tough, honestly. When McCourt was buying the team from News Corp, there were all kinds of questions about his financial viability. During his first few years of owning the team, they had the messy DePodesta situation, which was handled quite poorly. McCourt has also taken to putting his family members into high level jobs within the organization, which is hardly ever a good idea. And during the Manny Ramirez negotiations, it became pretty clear that McCourt was an active participant in the decision making process of the front office. So he’s got some baggage. But, he’s consistently provided the team with significant budget room, and they have strong revenue streams thanks to their market and established fan base. They have a financial advantage over the rest of their division, and that doesn’t look likely to end any time soon.

Front Office: D+

Ned Colletti learned from Brian Sabean. Perhaps that’s all that needs to be said? Since taking over as the Dodgers GM, he’s made a few disastrous moves. The signings of Jason Schmidt, Juan Pierre, and Andruw Jones couldn’t have worked out any worse than they have. He drastically overpaid to get Casey Blake, losing top catching prospect Carlos Santana in the process. And he’s managed to put together a decent but not great roster for 2009 despite the most resources of any team in the division. Like Sabean, he ignores most of the new analytical processes in baseball and manages with his gut, which has led him astray too many times. He does have some strengths (especially as it relates to scouting), but he’s got a lot of work to do before he’s a quality GM.

Major League Talent: A-

The young core of Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Russell Martin, James Loney, Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, and Jonathan Broxton is an enviable one to build around. Toss in quality veterans such as Furcal, Hudson, Kuroda, and some guy named Manny, and the Dodgers have a team capable of winning the NL West both in 2009 and going forward. The roster isn’t without holes, of course – the back end of the pitching staff could use some work, the setup men trying to get the ball to Broxton are question marks, Furcal’s health isn’t a given, and the team has to figure out how to get Martin days off more often, but overall, it’s a good team that’s built around players who shouldn’t be expected to take big steps backwards. They’ll need to continue to plug in solid veteran role players to compliment the core, but the pieces are in place.

Minor League Talent: C+

The team lacks a true standout prospect, instead going with a cornucopia of interesting guys with question marks. Ethan Martin is a good arm, but as a HS pitching prospect with no pro experience, he couldn’t be further from the majors. James McDonald lacks the classic big fastball of a top pitching prospect, but has almost everything else. Andrew Lambo might turn into Adam Dunn, but that’s not as good a player as most people think. Ivan DeJesus is out for the year, and while Scott Elbert is healthy right now, whether he will be tomorrow or not isn’t certain.

Overall: B-

Given their talent base and their market, there’s no reason the Dodgers shouldn’t dominate the NL West. That they don’t is mostly poor management, and while the team has been able to overcome a series of bad moves, they won’t be able to forever. Colletti is either going to have to improve as a GM or get replaced. Thankfully, the young talent on the roster should keep the team afloat while they figure out how to get the front office in order, and with a better management team in place, the potential for a top tier franchise is in place. Until they tap into that potential, though, they rate as just a bit above average.

The Texas Rangers organization has arguably the best system in all of Major League Baseball, thanks to astute trades and solid drafting practices. The club could hand the starting-catcher chores to one of its impressive rookies this season, and fans could finally get glimpses of two of the key trading chips received from Atlanta in the Mark Teixeira deal.

AAA/AA
Right-hander Neftali Feliz was part of the Teixeira deal with Atlanta. The 20-year-old split his first full season in Texas between High-A and Double-A. At the senior level, Feliz allowed 34 hits in 45.1 innings of work and posted rates of 4.57 BB/9 and 9.33 K/9. In total, he struck out 153 batters in 127.1 innings in 2008. Feliz features a 91-96 mph fastball that can touch triple digits, as well as a good curveball and change-up. Once he improves his command, Feliz could be an absolute monster on the mound – if the Texas pitching curse doesn’t get him.

Southpaw Derek Holland doesn’t throw quite as hard as Feliz, but he rocketed through three minor league levels in his first full pro season after being drafted in 2006 (He was signed as a draft-and-follow prior to the 2007 draft). Holland spent the majority of the season in A-ball and allowed 77 hits in 93.2 innings of work. He posted rates of 2.79 BB/9 and 8.74 K/9. He also made five starts in High-A and four starts in Double-A. The 22-year-old hurler can touch 96 mph with his fastball but he’s really a one-pitch pitcher at this point. Holland’s change-up is usually pretty good but his slider needs a lot of work.

Taylor Teagarden and Max Ramirez could both see time behind the dish for the Rangers in 2009. Teagarden is the far superior defensive catcher, but Ramirez (who could end up at 1B or DH) is the better all-around hitter. Teagarden’s biggest issue is the lack of consistent contact, although he has above-average power when he connects with the ball. Ramirez has a chance to hit .300 in the Majors with 20 home runs. With Jarrod Saltalamacchia playing well this spring and veteran Adam Melhuse also hitting well, both Ramirez and Teagarden could be headed for some extra work in Triple-A.

Julio Borbon could be a long-term fixture in center field for the Rangers. Drafted in the supplemental first round in 2007 out of college, he split 2008 between High-A and Double-A. At his second stop, Borbon hit .337/.380/.459 with 17 stolen bases in 255 at-bats. In total, he nabbed 53 bases in his first full season. Borbon still needs to tweak his approach at the plate as he walked just 5.2% of the time, which is too low for a lead-off hitter. He also has just enough power to mess with his mind, which causes him to over-swing and move away from the slash-and-run mentality that he should have.

There has been talk that Elvis Andrus, 20, could be the opening day shortstop for the Rangers. Like Feliz, Andrus was obtained from the Braves in the Teixeira trade. He spent all of 2008 in Double-A where he hit .295/.350/.367 with 54 stolen bases in 482 at-bats. Like his second-half teammate Borbon, Andrus has a ton of speed but he does not walk enough, after posting a rate of 7.3 BB%. Defensively, he has the makings of an above-average infielder, but he made more than 30 errors in 2008. In 17 games this spring, Andrus is hitting .250, which is about what the Rangers should expect from him at the MLB level in 2009. Veteran Omar Vizquel was brought in this past winter as a free agent, which could buy Andrus some more development time in Triple-A.

A+/A
A solid two-way player in high school, Michael Main was allowed to pitch and hit in his 2007 pro debut. However, the Rangers organization had him focus on pitching in 2008 in short-season ball. The now 20-year-old right-hander was slowed at the beginning of last year by a cracked rib but he still pitched well in the second half of the season in A-ball. Main allowed 38 hits in 45.1 innings, along with rates of 2.58 BB/9 and 9.93 K/9. His fastball can touch 96 mph and he also features a curveball and change-up.

The club’s 2008 first-round draft pick, Justin Smoak managed to get in just 14 games last year after signing. The 22-year-old switch-hitter slugged three home runs in 54 at-bats and batted .304 in A-ball. Smoak also hit well in the Arizona Fall League, with an average above .300. He should open 2009 in High-A ball and could see the Majors by the end of 2010. He is at least an average defender at first base.

Engel Beltre was acquired from Boston in the 2007 deal for closer Eric Gagne. The deal went sour for Texas after the organization foolishly chose Kason Gabbard over Michael Bowden but Beltre could help fans forget that fact. The athletic outfielder hit .283 with 31 stolen bases in A-ball in 2008, but his plate discipline is terrible and he posted a walk rate of 2.6 BB% in 566 at-bats (15 walks vs 105 strikeouts). That approach is obviously not going to cut it at the upper levels of the minors, or the Majors, but Beltre is just 19-years-old and has plenty of time to improve the rougher aspects of his game.

SS/R
Martin Perez, 17, spent 2008 in short-season ball and allowed 66 hits in 61.2 innings of work, along with rates of 4.09 BB/9 and 7.74 K/9. The southpaw can touch 94 mph with his fastball and is working hard to improve his curveball, which has plus potential, and his nascent change-up. He should move up to A-ball as an 18 year old for 2009.

Neil Ramirez was one of the Rangers’ supplemental first-round picks in the 2007 draft. He signed late and did not make his pro debut until 2008 as a 19 year old. The right-handed hurler allowed just 25 hits in 44 innings of work. He had a hard time finding the plate at times with a walk rate of 5.93 BB/9, but he also posted a strikeout rate of 10.64 K/9. Ramirez can touch 95 mph with his fastball and he also has a solid curveball and change-up.

Up Next: The Florida Marlins

One quick note before we get to the next report – due to the Nationals inexplicable decision to release Shawn Hill yesterday, they’ve been dropped a spot on the list. They now rank #31, and we’ve promoted the North Carolina Tar Heels to the #30 spot. At least they have a few quality big league players and aren’t run by consulting the magic 8 ball.

Today, we keep looking at some teams that have legitimate hope, so it gets harder from here on out. And, for those of you who haven’t seen the previous parts (which are linked below), keep in mind that this is a forward looking exercise – we are evaluating clubs on their overall ability to contend for a World Series title in the future. We are not evaluating how they have performed historically. This is about the health of each organization going forward.

Rankings So Far

#30: Washington Nationals
#29: Florida Marlins
#28: Houston Astros
#27: Kansas City Royals
#26: Pittsburgh Pirates
#25: San Diego Padres
#24: Cincinnati Reds
#23: Colorado Rockies
#22: Detroit Tigers
#21: St. Louis Cardinals
#20: Toronto Blue Jays
#19: San Francisco Giants
#18: Minnesota Twins
#17: Chicago White Sox
#16: Baltimore Orioles
#15: Seattle Mariners

#14: Philadelphia Phillies

Ownership: A

The Phillies ownership group is most notable for their absence. When a Philadelphia magazine did a story on the investors in the group, they actually hired a private investigator to help them obtain photos, since none existed in the public domain. It doesn’t get much more silent partner than this group, who have stayed in the background, funded the team, and basically kept to themselves. With a new stadium and coming off a World Series title, the ownership agreed to be one of the few MLB teams to increase the budget for the ’09 season, and they’ve continually been in the top level of payroll for the last five years. Well capitalized, no interference from upper management, a new ballpark, a big market… tough to ask for much more.

Front Office: C

While Pat Gillick was no fan of the movement towards statistical analysis in baseball, in a lot of ways, he valued the same things they do but just used a different path to get there. He consistently paid for quality defense, patient hitters, and premium up the middle talent. So, while he eschewed modern advances in analytics, he also put together good teams that could win in the short term. Ruben Amaro, however, looks to be a combination of most of the bad and not that much of the good. He shares Gillick’s distrust of modern baseball analysis, but lacks the good qualities that allowed Gillick to succeed. In addition, the promotion of Amaro drove talented scout Mike Arbuckle from the organization, which is a significant blow to the team’s brain trust.

Major League Talent: B+

I can hear the screams now – the defending World Champs get a B+? The horror. Unfortunately for Phillies fans, their championship run was fueled by performances that we simply can’t expect to be repeated. I like Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino as much as the next guy, but you’re not getting +9.5 wins from those two again. Pat Burrell’s been replaced by the inferior Raul Ibanez. Jimmy Rollins UZR was higher last year than in the previous two seasons put together. Brad Lidge isn’t perfect. Chase Utley is headed for his decline phase and battling hip problems. There’s just a lot of places on this team to expect regression, and while they should still be a contender for 2009, they have some issues that didn’t get addressed this winter.

Minor League Talent: B-

This is an interesting collection of talent. Carlos Carrasco is a good arm with a plus change-up, but inconsistent results and some health questions. Dominic Brown is an extremely athletic, high upside outfielder, but there are questions about his power and whether he can stick in CF. Michael Taylor is a beast of a man who can hit the tar out of a baseball, but his approach isn’t good and his defense is worse, and that skillset has huge bust potential. Kyle Drabek had a good arm before TJ surgery. Lou Marson and Jason Donald are more nifty depth than potential starters. There’s not a sure thing in the bunch, but lots of intriguing upside and very happy best case scenarios.

Overall: B-

Pat Gillick has a long history of leaving franchises in ruins when he walks away. He didn’t destroy the Phillies in the same way that he did the Blue Jays, Orioles, or Mariners, but he left enough holes to patch that Ruben Amaro is going to have to be an extremely quick learner in order to keep the team a perennial contender. He has the funds to compete, but I’m skeptical that he’s going to know which players are worth spending money on. If the farm system doesn’t produce a couple of high quality players in the next year or two, the Phillies age will catch up them very quickly.

Temptation is always highest when mystery shrouds the subject. Rarely is the fulfillment worth the bewilderment, but there are always exceptions. Meet Yu Darvish, the lanky, 6’5” 22-year-old phenom who doubles as one of the Japanese team’s aces. A baseball site without a single mention of Darvish is about as common as the dodo bird. Darvish is more than the new Daisuke Matsuzaka, he’s the new Sidd Finch.

Except Darvish actually breathes.

While the results were shaky early on, Darvish flashed fine velocity. Seven consecutive fastballs opened the game with an average velocity just shy of 95 miles per hour. Darvish would top out at 96.9 MPH, but failed to see his velocity drop too much as he reached the 85 pitch mark. Darvish’s final 10 fastballs recorded an average of 92.95 MPH.

Although Darvish did throw 42 two-seam fastballs, he also threw a pitch that registered as a four seamer and a cutter. Throw in an unhittable slider and curveball, and Darvish has most pitchers his age beat in both quantity and quality. Here’s a look at Darvish’s stuff by movement:

Let’s focus in on that slider. Darvish tossed it 18 times an had the following results: ball, ball, ball, ball, called strike, called strike, called strike, ball, ball, hit, swinging strike, called strike, in play out, ball, called strike, swinging strike, swinging strike, and finally swinging strike. That’s 4/18 swinging strikes, or 22% total, and of those who actually dared to swing, Darvish recorded 4/6 whiffs, or nearly 70%.

Why was Darvish’s slider so untouchable? Harry Pavlidis – one of the best PitchFx imagery creators around – created a pair of flight paths showing Darvish’s pitches from an overhead and first base view. Both of those images can be viewed here. Pretty much everything bends or breaks in tantalizing fashion.

Yes, it’s only 85 pitches, but Darvish looked every bit as good as advertised.