This post deserves to be read in tandem with my thoughts on the Joe Beimel signing, because in order to make room for the lefty reliever on their roster, the Nationals decided to part ways with starter Shawn Hill. My thoughts on the matter took a couple of detours, beginning with “Huh!?” before swinging a right turn down the road of “Oh, well he’s very injury prone,” eventually ending up right back at “Huh!?” See, if the team in question were the Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies, Rays, Cubs, etc, releasing Hill in favor of a better option would be a feasible solution. After all, he has proven himself incapable thus far of remaining healthy, but this is the Nationals.

Upon learning of the move, Dave even remarked that he should move the Nats down to spot #31 on his organizational rankings… which doesn’t make sense because there are only 30 teams in the…. oh, now I get it!

Hill is 27 yrs old, throws a menacing sinker, sports a 1.75 career groundball to flyball ratio, and boasts a very solid 4.11 FIP. The issue of course is that these impressive numbers have only been seen in 37 starts over four seasons. Hill’s most impressive season came in 2007, when he made 16 starts with a 3.42 ERA, 4.03 FIP, and 2.60 K/BB. In half of a season the Canadian-born righty produced +1.5 wins. Extrapolate that sort of production, even with a bit of regression tossed in, and Hill’s season could have been worth just under +3 wins added, a very nice total.

With Hill out of the mix, the Nationals will turn to John Lannan and Scott Olsen to head their rotation; they will hope and pray that Daniel Cabrera finally harnesses his raw talent; and they will delegate fourth and fifth starter responsibilities between Jordan Zimmerman, Collin Balester (took two tries to get the correct “L” alignment), and Shairon Martis.

The Nationals unloaded injury-prone starter John Patterson last season, who then went onto retire. Whether Hill takes the same road is yet to be seen (sheesh, a lot of street/road metaphors here) but the Nationals and GM Mike Rizzo better hope that one or more of Zimm/Balester/Martis pans out, especially given Hill’s self-assessment that his arm felt good after his most recent outing.

One interesting aspect of Hill to take note of is his screwy mechanics. I vividly recall former Phillies TV color commentator Larry Andersen remarking that Hill’s front foot plants itself way before his hand reaches his ear, meaning that the righty is basically throwing with all arm. Such a windup may lead to extra sink on the ball, as several scouts have remarked, but it also carries a high injury risk, as we have already seen. Shawn Hill deserves to be on a team somewhere as he is too talented to not be employed, but someone needs to tinker with his mechanics in order to keep him on the field.

Otherwise, Hill will be just another pitcher who showed spurts of brilliance but could not stay on the field to showcase his abilities.

I am obsessed with evaluating pitchers and pitches. As part of a data request from Jeff Sullivan on the percentage of swinging strikes that pitchers generated off fastballs last year, I went looking through the PITCH f/x data and ultimately ended up generating a chart grouping each different pitch type from every pitcher in the big leagues in 2008, separated by whether or not the pitch was thrown to the same or opposite-handed hitter and whether the pitcher was starting or relieving.

That is, I have the results (in terms of result of the pitch) and can compare the results of, for example, fastballs thrown by Joba Chamberlain:

As a starter against a right-handed batter.
As a starter against a left-handed or switch-hitting batter.
As a reliever against a right-handed batter.
As a reliever against a left-handed or switch-hitting batter.

And so on, across each different pitch that he, or anyone, throws. This dataset is going to form the basis for more than a few posts going forward*, starting with this one. Among the first things that I did was strip out all instances of pitch totals under 100, feeling that 100 is a pretty decent sample of pitches given my strict categorization. Sorting that data by the percentage of pitches swung on and missed, I encountered right at the top, an amazing number. Ryan Madson’s changeup (as classified by MLBAM), thrown to same-handed hitters generated a swing and miss a whopping 36% of the time, about 5% higher than any other pitch by any other pitcher in 2008.

Scrolling down the list, I also noticed (not to my surprise) a lack of fastballs showing up. So I decided to see which pitcher first popped up. That name turned out to be Brandon Morrow. His fastballs as a reliever to right-handed batters clocked in at an impressive 20% swinging strike rate. What’s curious though was the spread in his results across the four categories. Here they are, presented in the same order listed above.

SP, Same hand – 10% (135 pitches)
SP, Opp hand – 7% (183 pitches)
RP, Same hand – 20% (219 pitches)
RP, Opp hand – 9% (216 pitches)

The 20% figure suck sticks out, doesn’t it? It’s worth pointing out that the average rate for fastballs from starting pitchers last year was just under 6%, so even at his worst, Morrow’s fastball appears to be an above average weapon for him. Still, it will be interesting to begin contrasting and adding 2009 data to this when the season begins.

*If there’s a question you want answered that you think this data can help with, shoot me an e-mail and I might be able to look into it for you.

After much speculation that Joe Beimel would remain out west and sign with the likes of either San Diego or Oakland, the lefty reliever inked a 1-yr/$2 mil deal with the Washington Nationals today. He joins a bullpen that recently signed Julian Tavarez and already houses the likes of Joel Hanrahan, Steven Shell, Jesus Colome, and Saul Rivera. Beimel has pitched in the major leagues for eight seasons so far, spending time as an employee of the Pirates, Twins, Devil Rays, and Dodgers. Not until he wore Dodger blue did he truly become effective.

Relief pitchers, thanks in large part to very small samples of performance, do not accrue much in the win value department. That being said, Beimel’s marks of +0.7 in 2007 and +0.9 last season are quite impressive, especially given his role as a lefty specialist. Prior to joining the Dodgers, Beimel had actually performed better against righthanded hitters, but an increase in fastball usage at the expense of his slider led to more swings out of the zone, a lower rate of swings in the zone, and less contact made on those zone swings. In the process, he vastly reduced the effectiveness of opposing lefties.

As a member of the Dodgers, Beimel posted ERAs of 2.96, 3.88, and 2.02 respectively. Based on controllable skills, his run prevention should have been worse, with FIP marks of 4.49, 3.39, and 3.30. The improving FIP is misleading, however, as it has much more to do with Beimel’s home run prevention “skills” than anything else. Throughout his three-year tenure with the Dodgers, Beimel saw steady increases in both his walk and strikeout rates, but cut home runs almost entirely out of the menu. His HR/9 marks in this span: 0.90, 0.13, 0.00. He served just one gopherball in 2007 and did not allow any to leave the yard last season.

The projections naturally call for a regression in this area, but even with a higher home run rate, Marcel sees Beimel capable of improving both his walk and strikeout rates. Assuming his true talent level shines through this season, Beimel would post a 3.78 ERA/3.99 FIP in 56 innings, numbers that would push him somewhere between +0.4 and +0.7 wins added. The economy is screwy to the point that $4.5 mil/win might not be terribly accurate, so let’s arbitrarily adjust that to $3.5 mil. Under that scenario, the Nationals are paying the lefty specialist to produce +0.57 wins, smackdab in the middle of the aforementioned range.

Despite being 32 years old, lefty specialists like Beimel will always be able to find a home. He is not a relief ace, and greatly benefits from playing in front of solid defense due to his groundball rates and pitch to contact mentality, but he will definitely provide the Nationals with a decent enough return on their investment… as long as he is utilized in proper fashion and not called upon to handle extreme setup duty based on last year’s tidy 2.02 ERA.

Today, we keep looking at some teams that have legitimate hope, so it gets harder from here on out. And, for those of you who haven’t seen the previous parts (which are linked below), keep in mind that this is a forward looking exercise – we are evaluating clubs on their overall ability to contend for a World Series title in the future. We are not evaluating how they have performed historically. This is about the health of each organization going forward.

Rankings So Far

#30: Washington Nationals
#29: Florida Marlins
#28: Houston Astros
#27: Kansas City Royals
#26: Pittsburgh Pirates
#25: San Diego Padres
#24: Cincinnati Reds
#23: Colorado Rockies
#22: Detroit Tigers
#21: St. Louis Cardinals
#20: Toronto Blue Jays
#19: San Francisco Giants
#18: Minnesota Twins
#17: Chicago White Sox
#16: Baltimore Orioles

#15: Seattle Mariners

Ownership: B

The Mariners ownership group does three things – make sure the team operates at a profit, spends a lot of money on the franchise, and occasionally gets involved in negotiations with Japanese players. Of these three things, the first two are far more important than the latter, which has honestly been quite overblown. Yes, the ownership stepped in and gave Kenji Johjima an inexplicable contract extension last spring, but they also stepped in and convinced Ichiro to sign a below market contract extension during the summer of 2007. Johjima’s first contract was a boon for the franchise, as was Kaz Sasaki’s deal with the M’s. Overall, the net value to the franchise from ownership’s involvement with Japanese players has been positive, not negative. They’ve given new GM Jack Zduriencik near total autonomy, and offer more than enough capital to build a championship baseball club. A beautiful stadium, a massive geographic market, and well capitalized ownership give the Mariners a fiscal advantage over most franchises.

Front Office: B

What would an organization look like if it combined one of the most respected scouts in the industry with significant input from the cream of the crop in advanced analytical techniques? We’re about to find out. There’s no questioning Zduriencik’s eye for talent, as he was one of the main cogs in the machine that built the Milwaukee Brewers. Upon his hiring, there were some fears that the Mariners were hiring another Gillick/Bavasi old school type, but that couldn’t have been further from the truth. Since the new administration took over, the M’s have hired Tom Tango (inventor of half of the cool stuff here on FanGraphs), created a Department of Baseball Research to be staffed by sabermetricians, replaced their advance scouting with a video database, and then showed how to put the new found intelligence in the organization to use, collecting significant undervalued assets, hiring an analytical coaching staff, and building a depth of talent that should allow the Mariners to surprise most people this season while simultaneously building for the future.

Major League Talent: C+

Much like the Orioles, the national perception of the Mariners ’09 roster is based more on incorrect generalities than an actual look at the talent on the team. Yes, they lost 101 games last year, but no, that doesn’t really matter when it comes to projecting 2009. This is a .500ish ballclub for the upcoming year and one with a significant core of young talent – Felix Hernandez, Brandon Morrow, Jose Lopez, Jeff Clement, and Franklin Gutierrez are building blocks under team control for years to come, and are complimented by high quality veterans such as Ichiro, Adrian Beltre, and Erik Bedard. Yes, there are some lingering lousy contracts from the past administration, but only Silva and Johjima extend beyond 2009, and the Mariners have more than enough capital to overcome $15 million in wasted salary.

Minor League Talent: C+

The top end of the Mariners farm system is brimming with both upside and risk. Carlos Triunfel could be a +4 win player on talent, but he’s several years from the majors and is mostly projection at this point. Greg Halman has Alfonso Soriano upside, but is a lot more Juan Encarnacion today. Phillippe Aumont flashed his first round arm in the WBC, but he’s only thown 60 innings in low-A ball as a pro. There are no sure things on the farm, so while the team has a lot of talent, the bust potential is very high across the board. They’ve compensated for that risk by compiling significant depth, including adding players such as Mickael Cleto, Mike Carp, Jason Vargas, and Ezequiel Carrera in the J.J. Putz deal, and Garret Olson in the Aaron Heilman deal. The team has significant risk at the top end, but also a much stronger than recognized middle group (the Mariners #6 to #15 prospects are probably in the top five in the game for that range), and having that much quantity is a good way to offset some of the risk involved with the high end guys.

Overall: B-

I fully expect most of you to believe that this is a prematurely optimistic estimate of the front office. That’s fine – I’m actually more concerned that this rating is too conservative, honestly. They’ve combined the best of the scouting world with the best of the sabermetric world and get to play with a top ten payroll to boot. They have to dig out of a bit of a hole left by the Bavasi regime, but the hole isn’t as big as you might think, and a lot of the heavy lifting has already been done. Despite being buried by the national consensus, the team has a 15% or so chance of winning the AL West this year (seriously), and the 2009 team will likely be the least talented one that Zduriencik puts on the field for the foreseeable future. Things are looking up in Seattle, and given their resources and the direction of the front office, the Mariners are poised to make a big leap forward.

Oh, and one final note – I fully expect the “you’re a biased Mariner fan” claim to show up early and often in the comments section. Just so you’re aware, though, the historical complaint about my writing from Mariner fans have been that I’ve been too pessimistic about the team. So, while it will be nice to be accused of the opposite kind of bias for once, how about we try to rise above analytical laziness and discuss the organization’s strengths and weaknesses and get away from statements about the credibility of an author who writes something you might not agree with?

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Once the champion of in-house talent development, the Los Angeles Dodgers farm system has crumbled to become one of the 10 worst in the Majors entering 2009. According to Baseball America, the system was sixth overall in both 2007 and 2008, as well as second overall in 2004-2006. Now the publication ranks them 23rd, while Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus ranks the minor league system 21st overall. Personally, I would probably have them ranked around the 23rd-25th best system in the Majors.

AAA/AA
James McDonald doesn’t have the highest ceiling (probably a No. 3 starter) but the right-hander is ready for the Majors and could break in as either a reliever or starter – depending on the big club’s needs. He had a solid 2008 season in Double-A with 98 hits allowed in 118.2 innings of work. He also posted rates of 3.49 BB/9 and 8.57 K/9. Those numbers were good enough to earn McDonald, 24, a promotion to Triple-A where he allowed 17 hits in 22.1 innings with 28 strikeouts and seven walks. He also appeared in four regular season games with Los Angeles and did not allow a run in six innings. McDonald features an 88-93 mph fastball, a plus curveball and a change-up.

The club’s 17th overall selection from the 2004 draft, Scott Elbert’s career has been slowed by injuries. The 23-year-old made just three starts in 2007 and underwent labrum surgery. The southpaw had solid minor league numbers prior to that, although control has always been an issue (career 5.0 BB/9). He spent 2008 as a reliever and allowed just 22 hits in 41.1 Double-A innings. Elbert also posted rates of 4.35 BB/9 and 10.02 K/9. He received a late-season call-up to Los Angeles and posted a 12.00 ERA in 10 games (six innings). Elbert features a fastball that sits in the low 90s and can touch 95 mph, as well as a curveball and good change-up.

Josh Lindblom was the club’s second-round pick in the 2008 draft and he finished the season with a start in Double-A. In eight A-ball starts, Lindblom posted a 1.86 ERA and allowed 14 hits in 29 innings, along with 33 strikeouts and just four walks. A college closer, the right-hander was shifted to the starting rotation in pro ball and is expected to remain there in 2009, although his future MLB role is up in the air. Lindblom features an 88-94 mph fastball, as well as a slider, splitter and change-up.

The club’s top hitting prospect, Andrew Lambo climbed to Double-A late in 2008 after a solid showing in A-ball, where he hit .288/.346/.462 in 472 at-bats. He also posted rates of 8.0 BB% and 23.3 K%. In eight Double-A games, the left-handed outfielder hit .389. Only 20, Lambo appeared in the Arizona Fall League after the 2008 season and hit .313. Defensively, he is average as an outfielder with an arm that restricts him to left field. Lambo played first base in high school, but the presence of James Loney at the Major League level will probably keep him from manning that position for the Dodgers. He’ll likely open 2009 back in Double-A and could be a middle-of-the-order threat in Los Angeles by 2010.

Shortstop Ivan DeJesus looked poised to spend some time in Los Angeles in 2009 – even with the resigning of veteran Rafael Furcal. However, the Puerto Rican received even more bad news when he broke his leg this spring. DeJesus is expected to miss the entire season. On the plus side, DeJesus is just 21 years old so he has plenty of time to re-establish himself. In 2008, the right-handed hitter had a line of .324/.419/.423 with 16 stolen bases in 463 at-bats. DeJesus is an above-average defender, although he can make silly errors at time.

A+/A
Chris Withrow, 19, was the club’s No. 1 draft pick in 2008 out of high school. Unfortunately, he appeared in just four games in 2008 due to a bad elbow. It did not require surgery and he is expected to be back at full health in 2009 after pitching during the off-season. His fastball sits in the low 90s and touched 98 mph in his debut. Withrow also has a curveball and change-up.

Josh Bell was yet another prospect in the system whose 2008 season was cut short due to injury. The third baseman hit .273/.373/.455 with six home runs in 187 at-bats in High-A ball. He also posted rates of 14.2 BB% and 29.9 K% before a knee injury knocked him out for the remainder of the season. Bell has massive power potential, although that has yet to fully develop in-game. The 22-year-old switch hitter is expected to be healthy in 2009 and should returned to High-A ball.

SS/R
Drafted 15th overall out of high school in 2008, Ethan Martin was bitten by the injury bug affecting many of the top prospects in the system last season. Before making his first pro appearance, he injured his knee but is expected to be healthy in 2009. The right-handed pitcher is a solid athlete and also received first-round consideration as a hitter. As a pitcher, though, Martin can touch 96 mph with a plus curveball. His change-up needs a lot of work.

Shortstop Devaris Gordon and third baseman Pedro Baez both had solid seasons in short-season ball. Gordon, 20, hit .331/.371/.430 with 18 stolen bases in 251 at-bats. He has the potential to be an above-average defender. Baez began the year in A-ball but hit just .178 in 185 at-bats. Only 20 at the time, it was not a huge step back for him to go back to rookie ball. Baez hit .267/.317/.502 with 12 home runs in 247 at-bats and will return to A-ball in 2009.

Up Next: The Texas Rangers

Today, we keep looking at some teams that have legitimate hope, so it gets harder from here on out. And, for those of you who haven’t seen the previous parts (which are linked below), keep in mind that this is a forward looking exercise – we are evaluating clubs on their overall ability to contend for a World Series title in the future. We are not evaluating how they have performed historically. This is about the health of each organization going forward.

Rankings So Far

#30: Washington Nationals
#29: Florida Marlins
#28: Houston Astros
#27: Kansas City Royals
#26: Pittsburgh Pirates
#25: San Diego Padres
#24: Cincinnati Reds
#23: Colorado Rockies
#22: Detroit Tigers
#21: St. Louis Cardinals
#20: Toronto Blue Jays
#19: San Francisco Giants
#18: Minnesota Twins
#17: Chicago White Sox

#16: Baltimore Orioles

Ownership: C

Peter Angelos has a well earned reputation of being a meddlesome owner. He’s made no secret over the years that he expects to have a say in how the team is run, and has held veto power over transactions during his time in control of the organization. However, since the arrival of Andy MacPhail, Angelos has taken a much more hands off approach – my guess would be that this was a condition of MacPhail taking the job. If this continues, then the Orioles may have the best of both worlds – an owner who wants to win and is willing to spend money to do so but has marching orders from his GM to keep arms length from the baseball operations department. However, we can’t ignore that Angelos has meddled before, and will likely have the desire to do so again. It will be interesting to see how involved he wants to be the next time the Orioles are in contention and are looking to make a trade.

Front Office: B

After years of lousy decisions, no direction, and a total lack of leadership in the front office, MacPhail has been a breath of fresh air for Baltimore fans. Since taking over, he’s put the team on a path towards building for the future, has made several astute trades to acquire quality young talent, drafted well, and locked up the team’s two best players to long term contracts. Turning around the Orioles franchise was a monumental task, but MacPhail and his team have done yeomen’s work in that regard, and the Orioles are certainly on the upswing.

Major League Talent: B-

I don’t know if people realize it or not, but this team actually isn’t bad. Not just for the future, but right now. Their outfield defense will be among the best in the game, they have a couple of solid fielders up the middle on the infield, and their offense should be one of the best in the league. Nick Markakis, Brian Roberts, and Adam Jones are all-star talents (obviously, Markakis and Roberts are already there), while Aubrey Huff, Luke Scott, Felix Pie, and Melvin Mora should be solid role players and give the line-up some depth. The rotation is thin after Jeremy Guthrie, but there’s some potential for usefulness with Rich Hill, Koji Uehara, and Mark Hendrickson. Honestly, the Orioles could probably contend in the AL West this year – their division will hold them back, but the talent base is in place for a good run.

Minor League Talent: A-

Since Matt Wieters hasn’t made his major league debut yet, I’m sticking him here, even if he is probably a top ten major league catcher right now. He’s the best prospect we’ve seen in years, and as close to a sure thing as you’ll ever get from a guy who hasn’t stepped foot in the big leagues. But the system doesn’t end with Wieters – Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz are two of the best young arms in the minors, while Jake Arrieta, Brandon Erbe, and David Hernandez are an excellent group of second tier pitching prospects. The Orioles are about to get a significant infusion of young talent, and several of these players will join the core of the next good Orioles team.

Overall: B-

After being the laughingstock of the American League for most of this decade, the O’s are on the verge of being respectable again. It’s hard to imagine a better trio of position players to build around than Wieters-Jones-Markakis, and with some good young arms on the way and an owner willing to spend money to compete, Baltimore could be very good as soon as 2010. Yes, the AL East is a killer, but tough competition can only hold back talent to a degree. Good teams win baseball games, and the Orioles are going to be a good team in the not too distant future.

If David Price’s chances of making the Rays opening day rotation weren’t slim before, they are now. Price entered his second outing of the spring Monday night with high expectations – given that the game was being shown as a simulcast on MLB Network didn’t help – and for the first time in his career disappointed.

It’s not that Price allowed a few hits and a few runs, but instead a hodgepodge of various other things. Price’s fastball command was a bit off and his vaunted slider was missing. Oh, and do not forget the absence of anything resembling a changeup. Price would come out after the game and admit that his slider has “[Gone] away from [him].” Music to every Rays fans’ ears, right? Well, the good news is that Price was likely headed to Triple-A anyways, and should be able to work on “finding” it again along with a third pitch. Somewhat amusingly, the whole ideology behind Price starting the season in Durham was to refine his changeup and now he’s back to square one.

Price’s admission along with the demotion of Carlos Hernandez and Mitch Talbot leaves Jason Hammel and Jeff Niemann as the front runners for the Rays final rotation slot. Niemann is not scheduled to make a start this week, but will pitch in relief. It’s easy to write that off, but it seems a bit coincidental that the Rays are finally going to their regular season rotation and it doesn’t feature Niemann.

Both are out of options, and with Price’s fulltime arrival pending towards April/May, it might make more sense for the Rays to place the pitcher they plan on keeping in the bullpen. Allowing the other to build up trade value through starting since the difference between Hammel and Niemann through a handful of starts is near negligible.

Rumors surfaced today that Pedro Martinez was nearing an agreement with the Houston Astros. While the rumors seem at press time to be holding no water, it does appear likely that Pedro Martinez is going to get a contract offer from someone relatively soon.

Pedro was also rumored to have turned down a one-year, $7 million deal back in January. If true, that was a catastrophic overestimation of the market as he’s not going to be able to get anywhere near that. Eric Seidman took a look at Pedro’s best case scenario’s back when the rumored deal was rejected.

Based on CHONE, ZiPS and Marcel, the likely performance for Pedro seems to be around 1 win with a spread of about a quarter win each way. Granted, a lot of that has to do with how many innings he will be able to log, being three years removed from his last season exceeding 140 innings pitched.

Regardless of their reported interest or lack thereof, Pedro does make quite a bit of sense for Houston. As it stands right now, they are relying on a lot of long shots and questionable health risks. Brandon Backe, Brian Moehler, Jose Capellan, Russ Ortiz and Mike Hampton are not a group that should be, making up the back end of your rotation without having contingency plans. Pedro Martinez could make up part of that contingency plan.

A friend of Manny Ramirez, Pedro might also find his way over to the Dodgers who seem to be giving up on the idea of getting anything out of Jason Schmidt. And apparently the Mets are not out of the question as a possible destination, possibly adding to the hilarious spaghetti of a rotation they have so far assembled behind Johan Santana. In any case, we can hope to find a resolution shortly as chances to audition come to close with the WBC ending.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have been firmly entrenched in the headlines recently thanks to their ongoing negotiations with Manny Ramirez. The ManRam saga received so much attention that many are yet to discuss their starting pitching situation. Gone are both Derek Lowe and Brad Penny, and Greg Maddux has hung up his cleats for good, eliminating the possibility of another mid-season trade. This leaves Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, Clayton Kershaw and Randy Wolf manning the first four spots, with the likes of Shawn Estes, Eric Stults, and Jason Schmidt competing for the final position.

Well, remove Schmidt from the running, as Joe Torre has conceded that the former all-star will not be ready for opening day, and cannot yet be relied upon for consistent playing time. At 36 yrs old, and with rapidly declining fastball velocity, Schmidt may very well be at the end of his career. So let’s take a look at his major league tenure.

After starting his career with the Braves, Schmidt found himself traded to the Pirates in 1996, where he would make 154 starts spread over six different seasons. Schmidt’s peripherals were nothing to write home about, consistently posting a sub-7.0 K/9 and a walk rate comfortably above 3.0 per nine innings. Towards the end of his time with the Pirates, though, he began to miss more bats, meaning the Giants acquired a different pitcher than Pittsburgh fans had been accustomed to seeing.

That 2001 season, during which Schmidt joined the Giants, turned out to be his best up to that point, with an 8.5 K/9, 2.33 K/BB, 1.32 WHIP, 4.07 ERA, and 3.64 FIP, all of which were career bests. Proving that the previous season was not a fluke, Schmidt bested the aforementioned bests in 2002, with a 9.5 K/9, a 2.68 K/BB, 1.19 WHIP, 3.45 ERA, and 3.11 FIP. Our win values metric begin in 2002, as well, showing that Schmidt’s solid campaign produced +4.4 wins, virtually equivalent to the 2008 output of Cole Hamels.

Having already showed signs of incredible improvement, Schmidt’s 2003 and 2004 seasons would see lower walk rates and a decreased batting average against. Combined with increased strand rates and very high whiffs per nine, Schmidt was missing bats, limiting hits, preventing free passes, and keeping stagnant those fortunate enough to reach base. His 2003 season produced +6.7 wins, followed up by +6.6 wins in 2004. In 2005-06, Schmidt failed to look as dominant but remained very valuable to the Giants, adding an aggregate +6.9 wins. Following the season, the Giants chose to go in a different direction and Schmidt signed with the rival Dodgers.

The 6-start season was marred by injuries and ineffectiveness, landing Schmidt with an extended trip to the disabled list. In fact, he did not even pitch in the majors last season thanks to injury bugs. With the departures of both Lowe and Penny, Schmidt figured to be a solid contender for the rotation this season, especially given his exorbitant salary, but it just does not seem to be in the cards. He could continue to work and join the team mid-season, but one has to wonder how effective or durable of a boost he could even provide.

Jason Schmidt, in his prime, was a very fun pitcher to watch, but he is several years removed from his prime and, barring unforeseen circumstances involving improved health or performance reminiscent of his glory days, he might even be fortunate from here on out to become an NRI fixture.

Today, we keep looking at some teams that have legitimate hope, so it gets harder from here on out. And, for those of you who haven’t seen the previous parts (which are linked below), keep in mind that this is a forward looking exercise – we are evaluating clubs on their overall ability to contend for a World Series title in the future. We are not evaluating how they have performed historically. This is about the health of each organization going forward.

Rankings So Far

#30: Washington Nationals
#29: Florida Marlins
#28: Houston Astros
#27: Kansas City Royals
#26: Pittsburgh Pirates
#25: San Diego Padres
#24: Cincinnati Reds
#23: Colorado Rockies
#22: Detroit Tigers
#21: St. Louis Cardinals
#20: Toronto Blue Jays
#19: San Francisco Giants
#18: Minnesota Twins

#17: Chicago White Sox

Ownership: B

Jerry Reinsdorf has a reputation for being a lot of things, but most of those are leftover from his more aggressive days in the 1990s. Of late, he’s settled into more of a bankroll position, handing the White Sox enough cash to be an upper echelon team in payroll over the last five years. While they built the worst of the new stadiums, it still generates a solid amount of revenue, and the White Sox shouldn’t have too many problems maintaining a high level of payroll for the foreseeable future.

Front Office: B-

What can you say about Kenny Williams. He gets into public feuds with his manager, former players, media members, scouts… let’s just say he’s a challenge to work with. And, early in his career as a GM, he did some really dumb things. But he’s grown, he’s adapted, and now he’s more like that obsessive fantasy league owner who won’t stop trading until he has a good team again. He stole Carlos Quentin from the D’Backs and John Danks from the Rangers. He built a bullpen out of waiver claims like Bobby Jenks and Matt Thornton. He got bargains with veteran sluggers Jim Thome and Jermaine Dye (the first contract, not the second one). He’s always making moves to try and make the club better, and while he misses some, he’s shown a knack for snagging talent at the right time and putting together consistently good squads. Plus, he’s stayed somewhat sane while dealing with Ozzie Guillen on a daily basis, so he gets a few extra credit points.

Major League Talent: C+

Are they contending with an aging core (Thome, Dye, Konerko, Pierzynski, Contreras, Colon, even Buehrle to an extent) or rebuilding with a youth movement (Ramirez, Fields, Quentin, Danks, and Floyd)? Leave it to Kenny Williams to try both simultaneously. There’s some good young players in place, but the teams fortunes are still heavily tied to the aging stars of yesterday. On the positive side, most of those players are still contributors, and the White Sox should have enough firepower to keep up in the AL Central this year, providing they can fix their two gaping holes – center field and second base. With competent major league players in those spots, they’ll be a quality team this year, and the future salary obligations take a huge dive after the year ends, which should allow Williams to surround the young talent with some more productive high paid players.

Minor League Talent: C

Gordon Beckham’s move to second base gives him a quick path to the major leagues, and the offense is there for him to be an all-star caliber player at the keystone for years to come. Aaron Poreda is actually one of the more underrated arms in the minors, I think – his secondary stuff needs work, but his combination of velocity, sink, and command can get him through while his slider catches up to his fastball. After those two, it gets a little more tricky – Brandon Allen and Dayan Viciedo both offer intriguing power bats, but neither of them are much defensively, so where they fit into a future line-up is in question. Tyler Flowers was a nice pickup in the Javier Vazquez trade, and Jordan Danks and John Shelby provide some position player depth. It’s not a great system, but it’s not nearly as bad as most people think.

Overall: C+

Hard to believe that Jerry Reinsdorf is the strength of the organization, but there you go. The team has enough resources to consistently compete for high salaried players, and Kenny Williams has shown an aptitude for picking up enough good, cheap role players to surround his core and make consistent runs at playoff spots. The roster is in transition, but they should be able to avoid a total rebuild and win while reloading. They make some strange moves, but overall, the package mostly works. It could improved upon, but it’s not a bad time to be a White Sox fan.