Over the winter, I did a series of posts on position adjustments and put forward the idea that second base is an overrated defensive position. It is lumped into the “up the middle” spots with catcher, shortstop, and center field, but is not actually that much more difficult to play than third base. I also mentioned that there’s been something of a height bias, where tall infielders are shifted to third and short infielders are shifted to second, even if the tall guy is a better defender than the short guy.

You can imagine, then, that I’m thrilled to see three teams experimenting with non-traditional second baseman this year.

The Cardinals have replaced Adam Kennedy with converted outfielder Skip Schumaker, who had spent his entire career in the outfield with the exception of six games at third base in Double-A in 2004. After some early problems in spring training, Schumaker has proven good enough to be handed the Cardinals second base job, despite no previous experience at the position.

Likewise, the Royals have decided to use Mark Teahen at second base in 2009. Developed as a third baseman, Teahen has spent most of the last two years in the outfield, and has never played a professional inning of second base prior to this year. To boot, Teahen is also 6’3 and listed at 210 lbs, so he’s significantly larger than the prototypical second baseman.

In Colorado, the Rockies are continuing with their second base experiment, handing the opening day job to Ian Stewart. Like Teahen, Stewart is 6’3 and listed at 200+ lbs, so it’s not surprising that he was developed as a third baseman. However, with Garrett Atkins around, the Rockies have decided to use Stewart at second base in order to get his bat in the line-up.

Three franchises, all with off-season decisions to make about how to fill a hole at second base, decided to fill the position with players from the corners. Schumaker, Teahen, and Stewart are not traditional keystone defenders in any way, shape, or form, but all three organizations have decided to go make some defensive sacrifices at the position in order to improve their offense.

It’s interesting to me that we’ve seen three franchises go away from the traditional second base model in the same winter that outfield defense seemed to increase significantly in value in the marketplace. As the newer defensive metrics gain credibility, we saw an increase in the premium for defense at positions where defense hasn’t historically been valued and a corresponding decrease at a position that has been genuinely considered a premium glove spot.

I don’t think that’s a coincidence. I’d bet that going forward, second base is going to look a lot more like third base.

Well, we’re having some issues with the twitter feeds, so I suspect we will not have any live twitter updates until tomorrow, maybe end of the week at the latest. Sorry for the inconvenience and we hope to have everything up and running as soon as we can.

All live data on the site should be working well again.

Yesterday, we took a look at the bottom 10 organizations in Major League Baseball, in terms of minor-league talent. Naturally, that means today’s post will look at the middle-of-the-road minor league systems.

(BA = Baseball America, BP = Baseball Prospectus, FAN = FanGraphs)

The Middle 10:
NO.  BA    BP    FAN  
11.   KC   COL   BOS 
12.  PHI   CLE   CIN
13.  BOS   NYY   MIL
14.  CIN   PHI   COL
15.  NYY   MIL   TOR
16.  CWS    KC   PHI
17.  NYM   SEA   NYY
18.  PIT   NYM   NYM
19.  TOR   CIN   PIT
20.  COL   MIN   MIN

The biggest discrepancies in the rankings, when comparing the three publications, definitely appears to be with the Colorado Rockies (20th, 11th, 14th) and the Kansas City Royals (11th, 16th, 10th). Personally, I really like the top seven prospects in the Colorado system, which include pitchers Jhoulys Chacin, Christian Friedrich, catcher Wilin Rosario, and outfielder Dexter Fowler. I also probably like catcher Mike McKenry and utility player Eric Young Jr. more than most.

As for Kansas City whom I rated higher than anyone else, I think the top three prospects have the potential to be excellent Major League players: Eric Hosmer (1B), Mike Moustakas (3B), and Tim Melville (SP). The club had the best amateur draft in 2008, which is impressive considering that the organization did it with just one supplemental pick – and they cannot compete money-for-money with clubs like New York and Boston when it comes to free agents – and even international talent. Other players I really like in the KC system include pitchers Danny Duffy, Mike Montgomery, Daniel Gutierrez, Kelvin Herrera, catcher Jose Bonilla and outfielder Mitch Maier, who deserves the opportunity to go to an organization that will let him earn a MLB bench role.

With the money that Boston and New York both have, you’d think that it would show up more in the talent filtered throughout their systems. In Boston’s case, the club has improved in that area in the last couple of seasons and could really take a step forward in 2009 if players like Ryan Westmoreland, Pete Hissey, Anthony Rizzo, Will Middlebrooks, and Junichi Tazawa perform like their scouting reports suggest they will. I will never, ever bet against Boston as an organization as long as the current upper management is in place. They’re just smart – and this would likely be a winning organization even if they were in the bottom half of the Majors in salary potential.

New York, not unlike Boston, has been hurt in terms of minor-league talent by trades for established Major Leaguers. With that said, the club has paid a lot of money to prospects like Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes, only to have them under-perform. Other prospects like Andrew Brackman and Alfredo Aceves – and now possibly Ramiro Pena – get overrated by the media in and around New York. Whereas Boston builds bridges over the organization’s holes, New York seems to try and cover its holes with mat created by taping dollar bills together.

Added a quick little feature that people seem to have wanted for a while now. You can now click on the “show average” button:

If you click on the button it brings up the averages for each year:

You can then click on the show averages button again to hide the average data.

I realize it’s a little tricky to read and there are definitely better ways I can think of doing it, but I feel this is a nice stopgap until I can do things how I would have preferred. This will probably make its way into some of the other tables too, like the advanced data section.

The worst part about the opening day is the overreactions. Eric covered this in more depth last night, but Derek Lowe is probably not going to maintain a FIP sub-1 for the entire season, Brandon Webb and Aaron Cook are actually good pitchers, and CC Sabathia will not be a puddle of suck for the longevity of his contract.

Despite what Joe Morgan stated, Sabathia’s velocity was fine. Sabathia’s average fastball touched just over 93 miles per hour, and topped out at 95. Over the last three seasons, Sabathia’s average fastball velocities are 93.7, 92.9, and 93.7. Either Morgan was unaware and fabricating excuses for the Yankees’ new ace, or he simply has no idea how hard Sabathia normally throws.

In fact, the only slight difference between Sabathia yesterday and Sabathia of yesteryear was pitch usage; ~59% fastballs (right around average), 28% sliders (a tick above normal), 12% change-ups (a tick below) and one curveball. Oh, and yes, those velocities were all in check as well. Everything moved as it should, and if you don’t want to take my word for it, look below and guess which pitches are from yesterday and which are from Sabathia’s best start last season – as determined by WPA.

Yesterday’s pitches are those in pink. Yes, there are a few straighter than usual fastballs, but otherwise the clusters seem to have a lot of overlap. So, Sabathia’s velocity and pitch movement were nearly identical to last year, but he had some issues with command during his debut in pinstripes and in a sub-60 degree temperature.

Sabathia will be fine, the same cannot be said for those flocking to the nearest bridge.

This will not be a lengthy or detailed post discussing what sample sizes are or why they carry importance, but rather a personal plea for fans and readers, especially of this site, to avoid overestimating talent based on a few good games in April. While we can deny ever falling prey to this issue, it is human nature to try and glean information from any and all angles, for whatever reason, be it an edge in a fantasy league or an article claiming why Player A should get more playing time/get a contract extension/get a date with Alyssa Milano.

Last night, Jordan Schafer kickstarted his major league career with a home run in his first at-bat. He followed it up with a single to centerfield. On the night, the 22-yr old rookie went 2-3, with an intentional walk. Seeing as the Braves/Phillies matchup was the first of the season, on national television, I would not be surprised in the least if fantasy players flocked to free agent pools to put in a claim for Schafer’s services. Now, Schafer may very well be a fine major league player but situations like this arise all too often, and they are particularly annoying. A player starts his season off on the right foot, fantasy players get all gooey-eyed, and then call the player a fluke upon dropping him in June on the heels of a .230/.310/.360 slash line.

Schafer could defy his projections and post excellent numbers this season but that is not the point. The point is that decisions should not be based on small sample sizes and we need to admit this is a problem before ever moving past it. It is one thing to discuss how a player has performed in a certain 10-game span, like during Lance Berkman’s ridiculous stretch last season but it is a completely different animal to use such discussions or small samples as the basis for definitive performance claims. On a teamwide level, going crazy over Schafer right now would be equivalent to trying to decipher what is wrong with the Phillies. One measly game has been played. Let’s not go crazy over players until we at least know a little bit about them.

In fact, as Dave mentioned this afternoon, the Nationals decided to forego placing Elijah Dukes, their best player, in the starting lineup because he had a poor spring training. I honestly don’t even know how to respond to that decision. But anyways, there you have it, my plea to avoid overestimating value based on small sample sizes. Waiting until the 50 game mark might be too much to ask, but at least get past 20 games before you claim having advanced knowledge about the causes of a player’s performance this season.

As the season begins, here are some of the areas that I think I differ on from the generally agreed upon consensus, for better or worse.

Teams I Like More Than Consensus

Baltimore – the pitching is better than people think and Wieters is on the way.

Atlanta – There are more strengths than weaknesses, and this is a roster with upside.

Seattle – Good defense and a couple of top notch arms make up for some other problems.

Teams I Like Less Than Consensus

Minnesota – A ~.500ish club when Mauer is healthy, and he’s not.

Philadelphia – Too many areas for expected regression. Long shots to repeat as champs.

LAnaheim – A ton of health problems and not as much depth as in past years.

Units I Like More Than Consensus:

Indians Rotation – Even if the experiments flop, there’s depth ready to step in.

Yankees Bullpen – Good arms, even if you haven’t heard of most of them.

Mets Offense – Could challenge the Cubs for the highest run scoring line-up in NL.

Units I Like Less Than Consensus

A’s Defense – Supposed to bail out the rotation, but I’m underwhelmed.

Red Sox Offense – Lowell’s back? Ellsbury’s bat? Varitek’s starting? Too many questions.

Cubs Bullpen – No relief aces in sight, which Lou will yell about frequently.

Players I Like More Than Consensus

Kosuke Fukodome – He’ll play a decent center field and hit enough to be useful.

Yunel Escobar – The Braves should be thrilled the Padres didn’t take him.

Josh Hamilton – It’s become cool to call him overrated. He’s not even at his upside yet.

Players I Like Less Than Consensus

Dustin Pedroia – Had a really good 2008. I doubt we ever see a repeat.

Matt Cain – When HR/FB rate regresses, people are going to wonder what’s wrong.

Jake Peavy – Padres should have sold high when they had the chance.

Over the last couple of months, we’ve looked at some of the more interesting prospects in each of the 30 MLB team’s minor league systems. With the Minor League Baseball season beginning at the end of this week, let’s now take a look – over the next three days – at who has the best and the worst minor league systems in the game.

(BA = Baseball America, BP = Baseball Prospectus, FAN = FanGraphs)

The Bottom 10:

NO.  BA    BP    FAN  
21.  WAS   LAD   CWS 
22.  MIN   PIT   SEA
23.  LAD   LAA   LAD
24.  SEA   CWS   WAS
25.  LAA   SD    ARZ
26.  ARZ   CHC   SD
27.  CHC   DET   LAA
28.  DET   ARZ   CHC
29.  SD    WAS   DET
30.  HOU   HOU   HOU

Obviously, minor league rankings are subjective. Each opinion is neither correct nor incorrect. For the most part, though, there is agreement upon the worst minor league systems in Major League Baseball. The biggest disagreements appear to be with these three organizations: Pittsburgh, Seattle, and Chicago (AL). So why is that? With Pittsburgh, you have the big three hitters: Pedro Alvarez, Andrew McCutchen, and Jose Tabata. After that, well, you go on gut feel because the system is thin.

Seattle has a lot of raw, toolsy guys that can be hard to read. Yes, Greg Halman put up a near 30-30 season, but his walk/strikeout rates are poor and his career batting average is just .262 – and mostly in the low minors. Phillippe Aumont has the chance to be a monster pitcher with a heavy, hard fastball – but he’s already showing signs of being injury prone (something that seems to plague Canadian starting pitchers… Erik Bedard, Shawn Hill, Rich Harden, Jeff Francis, Adam Loewen, etc).

In Chicago, there is not a whole lot to get excited about. Personally, I am not as big of a Gordon Beckham fan as most people are – especially in Chicago. He’s good, but I don’t think he’s superstar good. My favorite prospect in the system is Tyler Flowers, and he was just obtained this past off-season from the Atlanta Braves. Then you have Aaron Poreda, who is a left-handed pitcher with an above-average fastball and poor secondary pitches. You can dream on him and see a dominating starter… if everything clicks. If not, then maybe he can be a closer. Beyond those prospects… there isn’t much that excites me at this point.

The one thing that all three publications agree on in their evaluations is that Houston has the worst minor league system in all of baseball: A firm No. 30 out of 30. The club is really hurting from an ownership that penny-pinched on the amateur draft process… apparently not realizing that developing your own in-house talent and paying them a MLB salary for the first six years is A LOT cheaper than throwing a four- or five-year contract at a 32-year-old free agent. The undisputed No. 1 prospect in the system in 2008 first-round draft pick – and catcher – Jason Castro. My favorite player in the system is 2008 prep draftee Ross Seaton.

It’s Opening Day – meaningful MLB games return to the daily schedule, and for the next six months, we can settle in and enjoy what should be a fun season. Everyone starts out at 0-0, and while not every team has the same amount of hope, everyone has some “what if” scenario where things could break their way and they could be playing in October. It’s a day full of optimism for everyone – the teams who were bad last year offering up reasons why this year will be different.

Except in Washington, where it’s apparently more of the same. Even with the GM having resigned in disgrace and promises of a new organization going forward, the Nationals have managed to screw it up. Elijah Dukes, the best player on the team, is not in the line-up today. He’s not injured. He’s not being punished for an off the field transgression. He just had a bad spring, and Austin Kearns had a good spring, and that was enough for Manny Acta to decide that Kearns should get the first chunk of the playing time pie that will be split up amongst the crowd of outfielders the Nationals have.

Dukes had a .382 wOBA last year to go along with a UZR/150 of +13.7. In about 60% of a season’s worth of playing time, he was worth 2.9 wins to the Nationals, which put him on a +5 win pace over a full season. Five win players go to the all-star game, sign really big contracts, and become heroes to their fans.

Dukes will spend Opening Day on the bench.

I like Kearns as much as (probably more, actually) the next guy, but he’s not Elijah Dukes. He’s got some rebound potential and could be a nice role player on a team that needs a good defensive OF who can hit a bit, but he’s an expiring contract with no real future in Washington. He’s not a franchise cornerstone. He’s not even someone who will be with the organization next year.

Seriously, Washington, you have a 24-year-old coming off a .382 wOBA and a +13.7 UZR/150. I don’t care if he went 0 for 60 in spring training – you should play him whenever he’s healthy. This isn’t the kind of talent that you ask to share playing time, especially not with the likes of Kearns or Josh Willingham.

Happy Opening Day, Nationals fans. Hope you weren’t planning on seeing the team’s best player.

After a bit of a delay, looks like everything is up and running with 2009 stats (all of one game). UZR is the only thing not yet updated and I’m hoping to start updating that either later this week, or during the weekend.

We had issues with live data last night, but we believe them to be resolved and plan to start having all the live games starting today. There might be a few issues to work through in the first week, but hopefully everything will 100% working by week 2 at the very latest. Thanks for your patience.

Oh, and as a peace offering we’ve snuck in 2002-2004 pitch type & velocity data.