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The baseball season is less of a dash and more of a marathon, which is bad news for those of you who took Nelson Cruz in your UZR seasonal pools. Cruz leads by a half of a run over Jay Bruce, and nearly two full runs over Franklin Gutierrez and Placido Polanco.

You can tell the sample size is still small, because Raul Ibanez of all people has a positive UZR. Even more odd: he’s equal to Endy Chavez – the guy responsible for replacing Raul’s grit and work ethic. I wish a beat writer would ask Raul about his thoughts on defensive metrics now.

Aubrey Huff should probably only be used at DH. Thus far his UZR at first base is -3.5. Take that with the normal sample size warnings – like all of these pieces – but being poor defensively at first base generally means you aren’t very good defensively at all. Other poor defenders this season: Yuniesky Betancourt (-4.1, SS),Vernon Wells (-3.8, CF), Khalil Greene (-3.6, SS) and Nate McLouth (-3.6, CF). Gold Glove be damned.

What do Jordan Schafer Elvis Andrus share, besides their historic ties to the Atlanta Braves? Well, neither are making much headway defensively. I guess if we’re looking for an Evan Longoria-esque defensive rookie season, these two might not be the ones to hand your hat on.

Team rankings wise, the Rays are the leaders (13.9), with the Brewers (10.4), Pirates (9.7), Mariners (7.4), and Rangers (6.5) rounding out the top five. Meanwhile the Orioles (-11.3), Angels (-8.1), and Indians (-8) are the worst.

One has to figure the Orioles will finish the season better off than the Angels defense, right?

The Philadelphia Phillies and Florida Marlins started their seasons in very different fashions, with the defending champs struggling to prevent runs and the feisty fish jumping out of the gate to an 11-1 record. Prior to Friday, the Marlins were coming off of six straight interesting games, sweeping the Nationals on three consecutive come from behind wins in the ninth inning or later before dropping three in a row to the Pirates. Against one of their divisional rivals this weekend, the Marlins were about to get a little taste of their own late inning magic. The series opener between the Phillies and Marlins last Friday, a battle of both team’s early aces, spotlights the second in our game of the week feature. Observe the game graph:

In summation, the Marlins were cruising towards a relatively easy victory until they apparently boarded the log floom ride in the final frame and plummeted into a defeat.

The action started in the first inning when the Marlins plated three runs off of Brett Myers. After Josh Johnson retired the top of the Phillies order quite easily, Emilio Bonifacio received the first of Myers’ six free passes. His time on the basepaths would be short-lived, though, as he was quickly erased on a pickoff. John Baker singled to left but Hanley Ramirez was caught looking, leaving Myers one out away from escaping the inning unharmed. Ross Gload followed with a single, advancing Baker to third, before Dan Uggla stepped in and launched a three-run homer. Cameron Maybin whiffed to end the inning but the proverbial damage had been done.

Myers, one of the worst first-inning pitchers in baseball, settled down after that and tossed five scoreless innings before clocking out. Unfortunately, Myers’ efforts were exceeded by Johnson, who scattered three hits and two walks over seven scoreless frames while fanning eight batters. At the time of his departure, the Marlins still led 3-0 and had increased their win expectancy to 94%.

Clay Condrey relieved Myers and Leo Nunez took over for Johnson. Both pitched well enough to keep the score 3-0 entering the top of the ninth inning. The Phillies were known for comeback wins over the last two seasons but had struggled a bit with timely hitting through the first three weeks of the current season. Matt Lindstrom toed the rubber looking to end a three-game losing streak and improve his team to 12-4.

Ryan Howard grounded out to start the inning before Jayson Werth doubled to left. The Phillies now had a 4.2% chance of winning the game. Raul Ibanez walked, putting runners on first and second and increasing the Phillies’ win expectancy to 8.5%. Phillies folk hero Matt Stairs pinch-hit for Pedro Feliz and promptly delivered an RBI single to right, plating Werth and advancing Ibanez to third. With the Phillies now at a win expectancy of 18%, Miguel Cairo supplanted Stairs on the bases. Lou Marson then drew a walk, loading the bases and bringing the Phillies to a 28.3% shot at the game.

Lindstrom then fanned Eric Bruntlett in a very clutch situation, leaving the Marlins one out away from victory. Bases loaded, two outs, 3-1 Marlins… and Lindstrom walks Jimmy Rollins, bringing the Phillies within one run, keeping the bases loaded. Shane Victorino, playoff hero throughout their World Series run last year, then uncorked a grand slam giving the Phillies a 6-3 lead and earning himself 0.723 points of WPA in the process. If that weren’t enough, Chase Utley followed with a solo home run. Lindstrom left the game having surrendered seven runs in the top of the ninth inning.

Renyel Pinto entered and after giving up a double to Ryan Howard and walk to Jayson Werth, he struck out Raul Ibanez to end the abysmal ninth. Amidst a double and a walk in the home half of the ninth, Ryan Madson struck out the side, putting an end on quite the unlikely series of late-inning events. The Marlins scored three in the bottom of the first and the Phillies scored seven in the top of the ninth. In between, no scoring occurred whatsoever. The Phillies went onto repeat their late-inning heroics the next night, coming back from a 4-3 deficit in the top of the ninth to a 6-4 win in extra innings.

They swept the fish with a 13-2 win yesterday, leaving the Marlins with a 6-game losing streak and a very slim lead in the division. Things looked mighty different a week ago but I chose this as the game of the week to highlight how quickly things can change in the game of baseball, and how a team that swept a series on late-inning comebacks could find themselves on the losing end of similar events very soon after.

Albert Pujols is no mere human baseball player, of that we were already pretty certain. Ryan Ludwick as well put a rather impressive impression of his hitting skills on display last year. That those two have followed up so far in 2009 comes as no real surprise. Neither is a tremendous surprise to see the Cardinals pacing the league in offense this season. They were, after all, the third best offensive team last year behind the Rangers and the Red Sox. Besides Pujols and Ludwick though is a different crop of supporters.

In 2008, Troy Glaus, Rick Ankiel and Felipe Lopez were the primary secondary hitters for the Cardinals, posting wOBAs of .371, .360 and .415 respectively. This year, Brian Barden, Yadier Molina and Chris Duncan are trio providing the offense behind Pujols and Ludwick this time around. Barden is currently getting his at bats at third base, which opens the question about what the Cardinals might do when Troy Glaus returns if Barden defies the odds and is still hitting. Barden has some experience at the middle infield positions, so that might be the route they go. Of course, even a cursory glance at Barden’s past results will lead one to be skeptical that he’s going to be any significant part of the Cardinals plans as the season progresses.

Yadier Molina, though highly unlikely to maintain an OPS over .900, has shown a marked increase in offensive production over the past few seasons. After establishing a baseline wOBA in the high 200s, and declining, after his first three years, Molina posted a wOBA of .311 and .323 in 2007 and 2008. A final line in that range is more plausible than his current standing.

Never much on the fielding side of things, Chris Duncan has seen his offensive output decline since he came onto the scene in 2006. Still, most projection systems pegged Duncan to return to a hitting level somewhere between 2007 and 2008. He’s been much better than that so far in 2009, but looks to be the fortune of an inflated BABIP number. When that falls back down to Duncan’s established career norms, his overall production is likely to regress back to a more expected figure.

Even with the expected regression from all three of the above players, the Cardinals still boast a powerful offense that should remain one of the league’s best as long as Pujols and Ludwick stay healthy.

During the down years, the Rays often had just a single bright spot, and his name was Carl Crawford. He was the star toiling in obscurity, putting up +4.5 to +5.0 win seasons for three straight years on terrible teams. He combined electrifying speed with gap power and terrific defense, making him one of the game’s truly consistent five tool players.

However, while the Rays boomed last year, Crawford’s bat went bust, and it hasn’t recovered through the first several weeks of April. His power has gone south while he’s simultaneously making less contact, and that’s never a good combination. He still chases too many pitches out of the strike zone, but he could get away with it when he was punishing pitches over the plate.

While they’re certainly contenders again this year, and Crawford has plenty of time to rebound and return to previous form, I have to wonder if the Rays aren’t beginning to think that now might be a good time to explore trading their left fielder. After all, the organization isn’t really hurting for outfielders.

Ben Zobrist’s early season surge has pushed the planned Gabe Gross/Gabe Kapler platoon to the back burner. Zobrist showed some legitimate skills last summer, and his defense in the outfield has been much better than expected after making the transition from a poor defensive infielder. If Tampa feels that Zobrist can continue to make strides and play at a level worthy of regular playing time, the Gross/Kapler platoon is a ready-made Crawford replacement already on the roster.

The team isn’t hurting for depth beyond those guys, either. Matt Joyce, acquired in the Edwin Jackson trade, is hanging in Triple-A waiting for a chance to get back to the majors after an impressive rookie campaign. Behind him, 22-year-old top prospect Desmond Jennings is destroying the Double-A Southern League, and showing the tools that make him one of the most exciting young players in the minors. If Fernando Perez is able to return from injury, he’d add yet another outfield option.

The Rays are flush with outfielders to the point that they don’t have playing time for the talent they have on hand, much less the talent they have waiting for a promotion. Dealing Crawford might not seem like the most usual move for a team trying to win now, but it might be worth exploring the market to see if a deal is out there that makes sense. The marginal hit they’d take in replacing him could be significantly less than the improvement they’d be able to make elsewhere.

Hitting prospects love to play in the Double-A Texas League. The league is a hitter’s haven and a number of the cities boast some of the best parks in all of minor league baseball for hitting; it also doesn’t hurt that most clubs don’t have to worry about cold weather in April. Right now, 29 batters in the Texas League are hitting .300 or higher. Seventeen of those hitters are at .340 or more.

The Texas League can turn suspects into prospects (for a brief time). We are also still dealing with small sample sizes this early in the season, so we cannot get too ahead of ourselves. Let’s pull out a few names from the 29 hot-hitting players in the Texas League and have a closer look at some of the prospects that came into the 2009 season with a scouting report that matches (or at least hinted to) their current offensive output.

Marcus Lemon has the most obscure profile of the five players we’re looking at, although he is no stranger to the game as the son of former Tigers outfielder Chet Lemon. The younger, fresher Lemon is a shortstop who is enjoying his time in Frisco with a line of .409/.458/.545. That puts him fourth in the league in batting average. In 44 at-bats, he’s struck out just four times (also with four walks). Last season, Lemon hit .295/.374/.434 with 30 doubles and 12 stolen bases in High-A ball. With all the talent in the Texas system, and all eyes on fellow prospect Elvis Andrus, it’s easy for a promising (but not-so-flashy) player like Lemon, one of the youngest players in Double-A at 20, to get lost in the crowd. He could be a very solid shortstop in the Majors or a top-flight utility player. He’s not going to be manning shortstop in Texas anytime soon, though.

Catcher Mitch Canham was drafted by the San Diego Padres in the supplemental first round of the 2007 draft because of his offensive reputation. He certainly has not disappointed; it took him just two years to make it to Double-A, where he is currently hitting .324/.439/.412. Last season in High-A ball (at another good hitter’s park), Canham, 24, hit .285/.382/.434 with solid rates of 13.7 BB% and 17.5 K%. His current success is likely no fluke and he could earn a mid-season promotion to Triple-A if he shows enough improvement on the defensive side of his game. The current platoon in San Diego of Nick Hundley and Henry Blanco does not provide much of a roadblock.

Daryl Jones broke out in a big way in 2008. The St. Louis Cardinals’ outfield prospect was drafted because of his athletic ability but no one knew exactly when (or if) he would translate those skills to the baseball diamond. Well, it happened in High-A ball last season and it’s continuing on into Double-A early in 2009. The 21-year-old prospect is currently hitting .303/.415/.455 in 33 at-bats. So far, he’s making a little more contact at the plate with his strikeout rate dropping from 24.2 K% in 2008 to 15.2 K% in 2009. Jones has a nice mix of speed and developing power, which could debut in St. Louis in 2010 if he continues to build upon the success he’s shown in the past year.

Adrian Cardenas is the first of two offensive-minded Oakland prospects that we’re going to look at today, which is good news for the A’s, given that the club is one of the worst offensive teams in all of Major League Baseball right now. Cardenas, a second baseman who might play third or short in the Majors, received a 26-game taste of Double-A last season and enjoyed it. He also hit .307/.371/.441 in 261 High-A at-bats. This season, Cardenas, 21, is hitting .364/.417/.600 in 55 at-bats. He’s slugged eight doubles in 13 games and is showing a willingness to take a walk (with five). But he’s also struck out 10 times. If he keeps hitting like this, Oakland will likely be tempted to promote him aggressively.

Chris Carter is lucky to be on the list of players hitting .300, with a triple-slash line of .315/.385/.500. He might be a .300 hitter in a good park/league in the minors, but with a career strikeout rate of around 30 percent, he’s not going to do that in the Majors. The 22-year-old first baseman is currently riding a hot steak as he is 12-for-27 (.444) with 13 RBI in his last seven games. His home run output is down with one homer in 50 at-bats, but that’s OK. We know the power is there, especially after he slugged 39 homers last year. What Carter needs to work on is making more consistent contact after hitting .259 last year with 156 Ks. By getting fellow prospect Sean Doolittle (in Triple-A) playing time in the outfield, it signifies that the organization believes in Carter, because Doolittle is a superior fielder to the former White Sox draft pick who is less versatile.

After watching an anemic offense struggle through the 2008 season, the A’s decided to make some upgrades to add a little thump to their line-up. They traded for Matt Holliday, then went out and signed Jason Giambi, Orlando Cabrera, and Nomar Garciaparra. The new pieces gave them balance and depth to their line-up, at least on paper.

So far, it hasn’t worked. At all.

Holliday hsan’t quieted any of the concerns about how well he would hit away from Coors Field. He’s still the aggressive hitter he’s always been, but the ball just isn’t flying off the bat right now. A .109 ISO is not what the A’s had in mind. He’s certainly better than this, and the bat will come around, but Oakland needs it to happen sooner than later.

Holliday has looked like Babe Ruth compared to the three free agents the A’s signed, however. Giambi has a .270 wOBA, and he is yet to hit his first home run in his second tour of duty with the A’s. Cabrera is hitting .211/.277/.246 – even though they signed him for his defense, they weren’t expecting Rey Ordonez production at the plate. Nomar has been the worst of the bunch at .179/.200/.286, and as always, nagging injuries have kept him from being able to take the field regularly.

There’s no question that all four of these hitters will produce at higher levels than they have so far. However, the A’s need the corporate slump to end ASAP. They can’t win if they’re not scoring any runs, and the new guys are the ones who are supposed to be providing the thump.

Oakland has a team batting line of .232/.307/.304.

That’s a .611 OPS. Last year, Jose Vidro’s OPS was .612. Jose Vidro the DH was one of the bigger jokes in the baseball community. That doesn’t speak too well for Oakland’s lineup, one that saw numerous additions during the off-season.

Thus far only Jack Cust and Kurt Suzuki have been bright spots. Cust is walking nearly 20% of the time and Suzuki is putting almost everything into play. After that, Matt Holliday is the only other hitter with an OPS over .700 and only Ryan Sweeney has an OPS over .600. When Billy Beane traded for Holliday, I’m guessing he expected a bit better performance than what we’ve seen thus far.

Jason Giambi has a lower ISO than Bobby Crosby and Landon Powell. Nomar Garciaparra and Orlando Cabrera are doing poorly – although when the former is getting a hit, it’s usually been one for extra bases – and Eric Chavez is doing his best Jack Hannahan impression.

The offensive struggles are a gut punch to a team who had contention hopes. Throw in a struggling young rotation (5.22 FIP) and the Athletics find themselves below an injury depleted Angels squad.

Good news could be on the way, since most of the issues seem BABIP related. Plus, there’s just no way a major league team is going to OPS .611 for an entire season. Since 2000, exactly zero teams have finished with OPS below .650. Yes, even the 2003 Tigers, who were pitiful in every way imaginable found a way to hit for a higher OPS.

Back in 1999 I can recall watching a cheesy infomercial with my brother during a rain delay in which the onscreen personality pitched what he had deemed collectors baseball cards. What piqued our interest was not the actual set, or even the Keanu Reeves-esque acting, but rather that amidst showing off cards of Barry Bonds, Chipper Jones and Pedro Martinez, the guy enthusiastically promoted a Rick Ankiel card. Not really knowing anything about prospects at the time, my brother and I turned to each other, completely confused, wondering who this supposed superstar was that we had never heard of before.

Ankiel burst onto the scene in 1999 as a power lefty with the Cardinals. In nine games he posted a 10.6 K/9, fanning 39 hitters in 33 innings of work with a 3.27 ERA. Ankiel continued to show why his baseball card might be worth major money one day by producing a 3.50 ERA in 175 innings of work the very next season. He fanned 10 hitters per nine innings but lost a bit of control, with a BB/9 of 4.6.

And then the playoffs happened… in one of the most disturbing series of events I can recall watching on a baseball field, Ankiel imploded in the third inning of NLDS Game 1 against the Braves, not for mechanical reasons but rather due to a form of the ipps. He walked four hitters and threw five wild pitches before being removed. Though he laughed the situation off, more of the same occurred in the NLCS against the Mets as Ankiel continued to walk hitters and throw wild pitches.

In 2001 he made just six starts, walking 25 hitters in 24 innings before being demoted to AAA. Things only worsened in the minors and Ankiel soon found himself in the rookie league, quite the unlikely playground for the Rookie of the Year runner up just the season before. He thrived there both pitching and hitting, a bit of foreshadowing.

Elbow injuries and Tommy John surgery kept the former stud prospect out of action for the 2002 and 2003 seasons but he did manage to return to the big league club in 2004. Though he logged just 10 innings in a small sample of five appearances, his issuing of a lone free pass definitely induced sighs of relief from the Cardinals faithful. The success would be shortlived, however, as Ankiel’s wildness resurfaced before the 2005 season began. It was at that point when Ankiel decided to try his luck as an outfielder.

A knee injury kept him out of action for the 2006 season but Ankiel made the major league squad in 2007, playing 47 in games primarily in center- and rightfield. A +3.1 UZR rating coupled with a .364 wOBA helped Ankiel put together +1.4 wins in very limited time, a very impressive number. Last season he played 120 games, the bulk of which were spent in centerfield. Despite a UZR bordering on 10 runs below average, a .360 wOBA helped prove Ankiel definitely could hit at the major league level.

All told, Ankiel produced a league average, +2 win season in 120 games of action last season, incredibly remarkable given his past and virtually seamless transition into everyday outfielder.

Cliff Lee’s tremendous and out of nowhere season garnered much of the spotlight last season as did Josh Hamilton’s comeback from a drug addiction. In fact, Ankiel’s teammate Ryan Ludwick even earned more air time from most of the media. Very rarely have we seen a pitcher convert into an everyday position player and then it gets largely ignored upon actually coming to fruition? Ankiel might not be an all star or future hall of famer but his career has certainly been remarkable and deserves to be chronicled just as much as any other great story in baseball.

Early on this season, about three turns through rotations and about 10% of the way through the season, we have some preliminary indications about some front line duos emerging this season. For now, here is first of a few of them.

Atlanta Braves: Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez.
Vazquez, the pitcher with a reputation of out-pitching his ERA or under-pitching his core stats, depending on how you look at it. Moving to Atlanta, Jazquez has seen his individual pitch results remain stable with previous years to date, though an up tick in ground balls leading.

Interestingly, despite the stable pitch results, Javier Vazquez’s pitch selection has changed dramatically. Vazquez has cut in half the frequency with which he used his slider from 23% to 11%. That lost 12% has been redistributed roughly equally between his change up and curveball.

Derek Lowe, another newcomer to the Braves rotation, wouldn’t be having a great season if you looked just at his individual pitches. His fastball velocity is down over a mile per hour, a drop consistent in his slider and change up as well. Interestingly enough, Lowe has further decreased the usage of his change up. What once made up 10 to 15% of his pitches is now down to around just 4%.

Lowe is also missing many fewer bats and is missing the strike zone more often as well. His groundball rate is also down as well. So what is fueling a good start for Derek Lowe? Zero home runs allowed so far is a prime motivator. That is certainly not going to hold up, but Lowe’s still great groundball rate should help stave off too harsh of a regression.

With Vazquez and Lowe up front, the starting rotation is a key for the Braves in their hopes to climb back into postseason play.