Archive for May, 2009

Game of the Week: 4/27-5/3

Whew… this sure turned out to be an interesting week filled with some tremendously entertaining matchup. On Monday, the Phillies came back from an 11-7 deficit in the eighth inning to win 13-11 against the Nationals. Tuesday saw the White Sox and Mariners engage in a solid doubleheader, the first game of which took all of 17 minutes to play and the second of which saw firsthand the dominance of Felix Hernandez. On Wednesday, Yovani Gallardo beat the Padres… literally… as he pitched eight shutout innings of two-hit ball while accounting for the lone run of the game with a solo home run.

Fast forward to Sunday and several more games staked claim as potential winners for this week’s honor. Scott Baker took a no-hitter into the seventh inning against the Royals before getting rocked; the Twins would lose 7-5. Barry Zito looked vintage, recording a no-decision while holding the Rockies scoreless over seven innings. The winner, however, is the Athletics-Mariners matchup yesterday in which the Ms walked off on a single in the bottom of the fifteenth frame.

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Chris Jakubauskas, coming off of a two-hit loss in the aforementioned swiftly played game against the White Sox, opposed Josh Outman in this instant classic. Things started out roughly for the Jakulantern as both Ryan Sweeney and Orlando Cabrera singled to start off the first inning. As Jason Giambi stepped up to the plate, the leverage index clocked in at 1.82. The average leverage index for the entire game was 1.88, meaning that the standard for this game featured a fair amount of stress.

Matt Holliday grounded out, scoring Sweeney, before Jack Cust launched a two-run homer, giving the As a 3-0 lead right out of the gate. From that point until the bottom of the fourth inning, nothing truly noteworthy happened, with a mere two plate appearances exceeding 1.0 on the leverage index scale. Following a Jose Lopez single in that bottom of the fourth, Mike Sweeney put the Mariners on the scoreboard with a two-run homer. The As added another run in the next half-inning and the score stayed stagnant at 4-2 in favor of Beane’s Bunch until the bottom of the seventh.

Ichiro Suzuki knocked in the third run for the Mariners in the seventh, bringing them within one run of the Athletics, but time was running out. Russ Springer came into close the game out, but things didn’t go as planned, as Kenji Johjima knotted the game at 4-4 with a solo home run. The situation grew more tense for Springer as Franklin Gutierrez and Yuniesky Betancourt each followed with singles. One out, runners on first and second, bottom of the ninth… and Springer managed to escape without any further damage.

Fast forward to the top of the thirteenth inning, with Miguel Batista on the mound for the Mariners. Landon Powell stepped into the batters box with runners on the corners and one out, and doubled both in, giving the As a 6-4 lead in the process. Orlando Cabrera knocked Powell in soon thereafter, increasing the lead to 7-4. In the bottom of the thirteenth, Bob Geren was counting on Gio Gonzalez to finish things off, unlike Springer.

Unfortunately, Gonzalez had been in the game for four previous innings and he, too, could not hold the lead, surrendering runs on three straight plate appearances: a bases loaded walk, a force out, and an rbi single. After thirteen frames, the score remained tied, this time at seven runs apiece. The game finally drew to a close in the bottom of the fifteenth, when Jose Lopez singled in Franklin Gutierrez off of Dana Eveland, with runners on the corners. Unlike the middle innings of the game, the extra frames saw a select few plate appearances feature a leverage index below 1.40.

Though an Alfonseca-handful of games could have qualified for this week’s honors, the constant back and forth deep into the world of extra innings between the As and Ms takes the cake.


Carl Crawford Does Dexter Fowler One Better, Steals Six

Since 1954, baseball has seen a total of 18 occurrences where one player steals at least five bases during one game. We’ve seen two this week. Last week Dexter Fowler took five against the Dan Diego Padres and on Sunday, Carl Crawford stole six against the Boston Red Sox.

So let’s talk about stealing five or more bases from a historical aspect.

Eric Young pulled the feat twice, once in 1996 and once in 2000. Kenny Lofton also took five in 2000, about three weeks earlier then Scarborough Green – who? – nabbed five against Seattle in 2000. Otis Nixon snagged six against Montreal in 1991. Ryan Freel managed five in 2005. Willy Tavares took a handful against the White Sox last season as well.

Most of the accomplished players were center fielders or middle infielders, but there are a few corner outfielders who pulled the trick, including Tony Gwynn, Rickey Henderson, and Alex Cole, the only player besides Young to steal five twice, and the only to do so while playing two different positions. Damian Jackson is the only player to manage from a lineup slot lower than third, during his game he batted 8th.

12 of the 19 happened at the player’s home park. I would’ve expected the number to be a bit higher honestly. You always hear jokes (most of the time) about how teams water down the basepaths a little extra when a known speedster is in town. Having the homefield advantage certainly can’t hurt, unless of course your team is winning

As you may have guessed, 2000 was the year of five+ steals. No other season has two cases, let alone three. Although, it seems like 2009 could be the season to knock 2000 off the throne, especially since Fowler gets to feast on Chris Young a few more times.


Adam Jones’ Emergence

Dave Cameron pointed out the wave of young center fielders playing in baseball this year a few days ago. I wanted to take a moment to highlight one of those in particular whose game seems to be growing at a rapid rate.

Adam Jones in Baltimore got his first taste of regular play last year following the trade to the Orioles from the Seattle Mariners in the Erik Bedard deal. He responded by putting up some stellar defensive numbers. Although his hitting numbers were poor, the combination of defense plus position made Jones better than a two-win player, all for the league minimum.

Adam Jones has built off that experience this season, coming out the gate in a huge way at the plate. Jones hit all of nine home runs last year over 132 games. Through just 22 this season, he already has five dingers and nine other extra-base hits. He’s boasting an OPS near 1.100 and a wOBA of .471, good enough for over 11 runs above average.

His defensive numbers have fallen back to Earth which is the only facet preventing him from being among the most valuable players in the league. Expect those numbers to bounce back a bit, though all the way back to 2008 levels is likely too much to ask for. Still, Jones is well on his way to becoming a consistent three to four-win player and Baltimore has him under team control for quite a few years yet. Paired with Nick Markakis, the Orioles have an incredibly valuable two-thirds of an outfield sewn up.


Oliver Perez: Wild And Out

Oliver Perez had a bad day.

To start the bottom half of the third inning, Perez walked Jimmy Rollins. After a Pedro Feliz fly out, Perez walked Eric Bruntlett. Then he walked Carlos Ruiz, loading the bases for pitcher Jamie Moyer and setting the scene for the unthinkable: walking the pitcher to walk in a run. Jerry Manuel was less than pleased, pulling Perez after 2.1 innings, six walks, five hits, and only two strikeouts. Of the 77 pitches Perez threw, only 36 were strikes.

Entering the game Perez’ BB/9 sat just shy of seven. Extremely odd, given Perez is not only throwing more pitches in the zone this season (52.5%, Perez’ Mets career high) but also more first pitch strikes, nearly 60% (previous high with the Mets: 55.6% in 2007.) Generally, those two variables don’t have an inverse relationship with the amount of walks issued.

Even worse for Perez, his batted profile is ugly. No matter your source for batted ball data, the number of line drives hit off Perez is in the neighborhood of 30%. Unnecessary baserunners + tons of liners = the opposite of fun.

Perhaps the only humorous aspect of this affair is the articles being produced on how the Mets flopped when choosing Perez over an additional year of Derek Lowe. These articles are being written as if, within the time since, new information arrived and suggested Perez was a far less valuable pitcher than Lowe. The idea isn’t simply hindsight – after all, Eric laid out the terms and everything before either deal wrapped and Matthew suggested Perez was overpaid directly after— but why weren’t these same articles written by these same people before or directly after the Mets made that decision? Why has it taken a month of the new season for everyone to finally realize that the Mets may have made a mistake?

As poor as Perez has pitched, unless there’s something more at work here – an injury, an outlier, whatever – his FIP will not remain this high all season. Meanwhile, hopefully this leads to some smarter decision making and decision making analysis on behalf of those who entertained the idea of Perez over Lowe, and perhaps next time they won’t entertain the idea one bit.


Reflecting on Raul

Throughout the offseason I wrote three separate posts here discussing the idea of the Phillies signing Raul Ibanez to man leftfield everyday. My feelings were not ambiguous in the least: as both a Phillies fan and an analyst, I did not support the move for several reasons. Ibanez was essentially just as poor as Pat Burrell on the defensive front, did not produce enough offensively to overcome these defensive shortcomings, and would begin his Phillies tenure at 36 years old. On top of that, the contractual terms of three years at a dollar figure in excess of $30 mil just seemed like way too much of a commitment.

This April, Ibanez hit .359/.433/.718, with seven dingers and a .487 wOBA. Defensively, he has a +2.5 UZR rating in 20 games out in leftfield. All told, Ibanez produced +1.5 wins, over 60 percent of the +2.3 wins he recorded last season. Despite his sheer awesomeness in the opening month of the season, my stance has not changed and I once again feel compelled to reiterate the difference between disliking a player and disliking a transaction or acquisition.

I have no issues with Raul Ibanez as a person. He seems like a good guy for this type of Phillies team and his numbers this month have instilled confidence in just about every Phillies fan. At the time of the signing, my pessimistic sentiments stemmed more from the contractual terms and the process of the move as opposed to the player brought in. Though the severity of the depressed free agent economy could not necessarily have been predicted, the beginning of the offseason did have a different feel and several analysts suggested that the commitments both monetarily and with roster space would not be as vast as years past.

Ibanez is not going to keep up this pace for the entire season. Dave Cameron got to watch him intently over the last several seasons and aptly summed the experience up by saying Ibanez will go on stretches during which he hits like Babe Ruth and performs average offensively in between these spurts. His defense also is not very likely to stay in the positive given his true talent level in this regard. It could, but a betting man would be wise to stick to the most probable outcome.

Overall, Ibanez has been incredible for the Phillies so far, but solely evaluating the product of a move and not the process is in no way the best analytical route to take. A combination of the two is really the most accurate since the product cannot be ignored but the process is at least equally important. Signing Ibanez to this deal when other similar players signed for very low-risk contracts was not wise from a financial standpoint.

He is not a bad player and I still root for him throughout each plate appearance, but while Ibanez has instilled confidence in fans thus far, GM Ruben Amaro did not instill the same confidence in at least this Phillies fan at the time of the signing.


Indians Miss A Chance

When the Indians had to place Travis Hafner back on the Disabled List, many fans in Cleveland saw it as an opportunity to promote Matt LaPorta. The International League isn’t proving much of a challenge, as he’s hitting .352/.427/.676 in 82 plate appearances so far, and the team could use an injection of hope after another disappointing start to the season.

Instead, they decided to recall David Dellucci, who had been rehabbing in Triple-A. Dellucci is a decent left-handed bench bat, but let’s be honest, he’s no LaPorta. Usually, I’m fairly supportive of teams not rushing prospects to the majors after a good month, especially if it might just be a short term promotion. However, in this case, I’m not sure I get it.

LaPorta is 24. He played four years of college ball, and now has played nearly two years in the minors. His bat just doesn’t need any more development. He’s a major league quality hitter right now, and there’s little to be gained by having him continue to feast on inferior pitchers.

The Indians are good enough to contend for the AL Central title this year, but they’re off to a rough start. Their window to win with this roster is probably through 2010, at which point they might have to take a step back while they reload. They aren’t building for the future with this bunch, and they could use all the help they can get to dig themselves out of a bit of a hole.

The Indians might have missed an opportunity here. If they lose the division by a game or two, this is the kind of decision that could lead to a lot of regret in October.


Draft Reviews: Toronto Blue Jays

2008 Draft Slot: 17th overall
Top Pick: David Cooper, 1B, University of California
Best Pick: David Cooper
Keep an Eye On: A.J. Jimenez, C, Puerto Rico high school (9th round)
Notes: A.J. Jimenez slid in the draft because of concerns about an elbow injury that proved to be less serious than originally thought. He is a defense-first catcher that has above-average athleticism. David Cooper has been in a neck-and-neck race with St. Louis’ Brett Wallace (a former Jays draft pick out of high school) for the fastest moving college hitter from the draft. Both began the 2009 season in Double-A; Cooper played at three minor league levels in 2008. The club’s second and third round picks do not thrill me, but the club made up for it with Jimenez and Eric Thames (seventh round), a college outfielder who also slid due to injury concerns.

2007 Draft Slot: 16th overall
Top Pick: Kevin Ahrens, 3B, Texas high school
Best Pick: J.P. Arencibia, C, University of Tennessee (21st overall)
Worst Pick: Trystan Magnuson, RHP, University of Louisville (supplemental first round)
Notes: The club had seven picks before the third round so it gambled on some players and also dove head-long into the prep picks for the first time in years (After dipping the toe in the previous season with Travis Snider). The results have been muted so far with all three top prep picks struggling: Kevin Ahrens, Justin Jackson, and John Tolisano. Jackson appears to be the best of the bunch but he has huge contact issues (as in he doesn’t make much). Trystan Magnuson was a big overdraft for a fifth-year college senior who had only really dominated for one season. J.P. Arencibia, though, has 30-homer power as a catcher – but he might hit .230. Left-handed starters Brad Mills (4th round), Marc Rzepczynski (5th), and second baseman Brad Emaus (11th) were good value for their draft slot.

2006 Draft Slot: 14th overall
Top Pick: Travis Snider, OF, Washington state high school
Best Pick: Travis Snider
Worst Pick: Luke Hopkins, 1B, New Mexico State U. (5th round)
Notes: Fourth round pick Brandon Magee has been nothing special, but Luke Hopkins was even worse. He signed on the dotted line for $172,000, played half a season and then retired. Catcher Brian Jeroloman was a nice grab in the sixth round and Scott Campbell (10th) could be a future offensive-minded utility or platoon player. Second baseman Cole Figueroa (drafted by the Padres in 2008) would have been a nice sign out of high school, but he went to the University of Florida. Travis Snider makes the draft, though, as he is already playing regularly in the Majors.

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2009 Draft Slot: 20th
Draft Preference (2006-08): Hitters with the first pick, and it’s been prep hitters in two of the last three drafts
MLB Club Need: Starting Pitching, Shortstop
Organizational Need: Third base, Shortstop, Right-handed pitching, Outfield
Organizational Strength: Second base, Left-handed pitching, Catching
Notes: By picking 20th, the Jays will likely be looking at a college hitter or pitcher but it’s hard to know at this point how the draft will unfold. Luckily, the organization has a supplemental first round pick as well as an extra third-round pick, both of which come as compensation for the loss of free agent A.J. Burnett. On the downside, those extra picks would have been much higher if the Yankees had not also signed C.C. Sabathia and Mark Teixeira.


Anaheim Has Angered Someone

Heading into the season, the Angels were the favorites to win the AL West, but they were overwhelmed by a tide of bad fortune. Half their pitching staff is on the disabled list, they’re mourning a fallen teammate, Vladimir Guerrero got injured… even top prospect Jordan Walden hasn’t been able to shake the injury bug. It’s crazy how much adversity they’ve had to face in a single month.

So, it’s understandable that they sit at 9-12, in third place and 3 1/2 games out of first in the AL West. Given the losses they’ve sustained, that they’ve been able to stay afloat is a minor miracle. But if you’re an Angels fan looking for hope, I’ve got some goods news – your bullpen is going to get a lot better.

So far, the Angels bullpen has been the worst in the American League, posting a -2.30 WPA and a 7.07 ERA. Only the Nationals have cost their team more wins, and they aren’t exactly the standard you want to compare yourself to. The Angels pen has always been a source of strength for them, and they had reasons to believe that their high leverage group (Brian Fuentes, Scot Shields, Jose Arredondo, and Justin Speier) would again be an advantage in close games.

So far, all four of those guys have been giving up runs in bunches. However, take a look at the respective ERA/FIP for those four.

Fuentes: 5.63 ERA, 3.68 FIP
Arredondo: 5.40 ERA, 1.18 FIP
Speier: 5.00 ERA, 3.29 FIP
Shields: 8.64 ERA, 5.82 FIP

Shields is the only on who has pitched in a way that should be concerning to his future. He’s struggled mightily with his command early in the season, but has shown signs of improvement in his last four outings. The other four just have to be going nuts as balls continue to find holes. Fuentes’ BABIP is .460. Arredondo’s is .441. Speier’s is “only” .328, but that’s still 50 points above his career mark. The Angels defense isn’t good, but it’s not that bad.

You just have to chalk some of it up to a total fluke. The Angels bullpen has a 4.19 FIP, 8th best in all of baseball. There’s just no way that they keep giving up runs at this rate. I guess it wouldn’t be the 2009 season in Anaheim if even the relatively healthy portion of the team wasn’t the victim of bad luck, however.


No Puns About Van Every Position Please

Prior to this season, I remember seeing Wade Boggs and Josh Wilson pitch an inning of relief each. That’s it. Never before had I discovered the pleasure(?) of seeing a positional player pitch in a game. Earlier this year Nick Swisher did the feat (and turned himself into a cult icon in New York) and last night, Jonathan Van Every gave it a go. Bonus points go to Van Every, since Red Sox manager Terry Francona decided to flip Van Every and the current pitcher, Javier Lopez, meaning Lopez had to go to the field after getting touched up a bit.

I must say, there was something poetic about Lopez having to chase down a double in the gap.

The plan was to look at Van Every through PItchFx, but naturally GameDay encountered a few glitches during his appearance, all but wiping that idea out. Only five pitches were recorded, each registering as a fastball. It seems 81 miles per hour is where Every topped out, while sitting around 78. His “change-up” actually got nice break towards lefties, but as you would expect the command isn’t there.

For Van Every, this is another feather in his cap in only his 16th major league game. The only reason he’s even on the Red Sox is thanks to injuries to Rocco Baldelli and Mark Kotsay.

Ignoring big-named players (for health reasons) and Rick Ankiel (for mental health) which positional players do you think would make the best relievers? Who would throw the hardest? Who would make Daniel Cabrera look like Johan Santana?