Draft Reviews: Toronto Blue Jays

2008 Draft Slot: 17th overall
Top Pick: David Cooper, 1B, University of California
Best Pick: David Cooper
Keep an Eye On: A.J. Jimenez, C, Puerto Rico high school (9th round)
Notes: A.J. Jimenez slid in the draft because of concerns about an elbow injury that proved to be less serious than originally thought. He is a defense-first catcher that has above-average athleticism. David Cooper has been in a neck-and-neck race with St. Louis’ Brett Wallace (a former Jays draft pick out of high school) for the fastest moving college hitter from the draft. Both began the 2009 season in Double-A; Cooper played at three minor league levels in 2008. The club’s second and third round picks do not thrill me, but the club made up for it with Jimenez and Eric Thames (seventh round), a college outfielder who also slid due to injury concerns.

2007 Draft Slot: 16th overall
Top Pick: Kevin Ahrens, 3B, Texas high school
Best Pick: J.P. Arencibia, C, University of Tennessee (21st overall)
Worst Pick: Trystan Magnuson, RHP, University of Louisville (supplemental first round)
Notes: The club had seven picks before the third round so it gambled on some players and also dove head-long into the prep picks for the first time in years (After dipping the toe in the previous season with Travis Snider). The results have been muted so far with all three top prep picks struggling: Kevin Ahrens, Justin Jackson, and John Tolisano. Jackson appears to be the best of the bunch but he has huge contact issues (as in he doesn’t make much). Trystan Magnuson was a big overdraft for a fifth-year college senior who had only really dominated for one season. J.P. Arencibia, though, has 30-homer power as a catcher – but he might hit .230. Left-handed starters Brad Mills (4th round), Marc Rzepczynski (5th), and second baseman Brad Emaus (11th) were good value for their draft slot.

2006 Draft Slot: 14th overall
Top Pick: Travis Snider, OF, Washington state high school
Best Pick: Travis Snider
Worst Pick: Luke Hopkins, 1B, New Mexico State U. (5th round)
Notes: Fourth round pick Brandon Magee has been nothing special, but Luke Hopkins was even worse. He signed on the dotted line for $172,000, played half a season and then retired. Catcher Brian Jeroloman was a nice grab in the sixth round and Scott Campbell (10th) could be a future offensive-minded utility or platoon player. Second baseman Cole Figueroa (drafted by the Padres in 2008) would have been a nice sign out of high school, but he went to the University of Florida. Travis Snider makes the draft, though, as he is already playing regularly in the Majors.

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2009 Draft Slot: 20th
Draft Preference (2006-08): Hitters with the first pick, and it’s been prep hitters in two of the last three drafts
MLB Club Need: Starting Pitching, Shortstop
Organizational Need: Third base, Shortstop, Right-handed pitching, Outfield
Organizational Strength: Second base, Left-handed pitching, Catching
Notes: By picking 20th, the Jays will likely be looking at a college hitter or pitcher but it’s hard to know at this point how the draft will unfold. Luckily, the organization has a supplemental first round pick as well as an extra third-round pick, both of which come as compensation for the loss of free agent A.J. Burnett. On the downside, those extra picks would have been much higher if the Yankees had not also signed C.C. Sabathia and Mark Teixeira.





Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.

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Evan
14 years ago

Given that the draft compensation system only discourages the first free agent signing, but after you’ve done that you can pretty much sign whomever you want because you’re giving away lower picks, wouldn’t it make more sense to go forwrad in years rather than up in rounds?

So rather than giving the Jays the Yankees’ third round pick in 2009, instead we could give the Jays the Yankee’s first round pick in 2011 (with the first picks in 2009 and 2010 going as compensation for Sabathia and Teixeira).

Kevin S.
14 years ago
Reply to  Evan

But what’s the discount rate on draft picks going forward? A second-round pick you can start developing today is more valuable than a first-round pick you get next year because of both the additional development time you get for picking this year, and the additional uncertainty involved with who is going to be around when you pick next year.