Everyone knows that Zack Greinke has been brilliant this year. The young Royals ace has been quite the story of the first two months, blowing hitters away and racking up some hilarious numbers through nine starts. However, for the last month or so, he’s actually been out pitched by a division rival.

Here’s what Justin Verlander has done in his last six starts.

42 1/3 innings, 24 hits, 0 home runs, 10 walks, 60 strikeouts, 1.14 FIP, 0.85 ERA

Of the 24 hits he’s allowed, 21 have been singles. He’s faced 159 batters, and they are hitting .162/.220/.182 against him. National League pitchers are hitting .139/.190/.172 on the season, if you want a frame of reference for just what kind of domination Verlander is currently enjoying.

Included in those six starts are three of the top four strikeout games in the American League this season. On May 14th, Verlander struck out 13 Twins batters. On May 3rd and May 8th, he struck out 11 Indians batters. Joba Chamberlain is the only other AL pitcher to record 11+ strikeouts in a game this season, and he did it once.

Verlander’s second game against the Indians registered a game score of 92 – the best any pitcher has had this season. So much for figuring out a pitcher after you’ve gotten a chance to see him twice in the same week. The Indians were happy to see Verlander move on to destroying other team’s offensive hopes.

In terms of WPA, Verlander has racked up 2.30 wins during his current six start stretch of brilliance. Greinke leads all major league starters in WPA with a 2.50 mark, which averages out to .27 WPA per start. Verlander is averaging .38 WPA per start during his last six appearances.

In fact, you can look at all the different combinations of six start stretches that Greinke has had this year, and none of them are quite as good as the one Verlander is currently on. Yes, we’re splitting hairs a bit when we’re saying the guy with a 1.14 FIP is pitching better than the guy with a 1.40 FIP, as both of them are pitching at remarkably awesome levels, and the point isn’t to downgrade Greinke’s accomplishments in the slightest – I just want to give some context to how good Verlander has been as of late.

His season ERA might only stand at 3.55 thanks to some rough performances by his teammates during his first four starts, but Verlander has taken them out of the equation for the last month or so. With a 12.76 K/9 during his run of unhittableness, he’s eliminating the possibility for bad defense or tough luck to mask how well he’s been pitching all year.

He’s got a lot of ground to gain, given how much better Greinke did to begin the year, but Verlander is pitching at a Cy Young level right now. Watching these two face off all summer should be a lot of fun.

Matt Holliday and Nick Swisher had very different 2008 campaigns, with the former producing his third consecutive season with a wOBA north of .400 and the latter suffering from the BABIP flu, hitting just .219/.332/.410. With only a year remaining on his contract and slim chances that he would resign, the Rockies sent Holliday to the Athletics. Swisher joined the Yankees roster in exchange for Wilson Betemit and two prospects following several verbal bouts with White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen. Entering this season, both players had something to prove: that Swisher’s .251 BABIP leading to a .325 wOBA was a fluke and that Holliday could post solid offensive numbers without the assistance of Coors Field.

Through their first ten games, Swisher became a Yankees legend and confirmation biases reigned supreme with regards to Holliday’s “inability” to hit on the road:

Games 1-10
Swisher: .406/.486/1.000
Holliday: .278/.333/ .444

Then Swisher cooled substantially, bringing his numbers a bit closer to Earth. Meanwhile, Holliday got on base less often and exhibited diminished power:

Games 11-20
Swisher: .211/.362/.368
Holliday: .262/.311/.405

Over their next ten games, Holliday’s batting average and slugging percentage resembled Swisher’s in the above span, but he did not get on base nearly as often. Swisher took some walks and, despite not recording an abundance of hits, those that did add to his seasonal total were generally of the extra base variety:

Games 21-30
Swisher: .200/.359/.533
Holliday: .211/.318/.368

As you can imagine, after thirty games, many were convinced that Swisher had found his stroke and that Holliday would prove to be a bust as an Athletic.

Game 31-Present
Swisher: .119/.269/.190
Holliday: .342/.468/.526

In their most recent stretches, Holliday has closely resembled the MVP candidate witnessed in Colorado while Swisher put up Nick Punto-esque numbers (.181/.290/198 in 2009). When all of these stretches are combined, Swisher is hitting .225/.360/.493 while Holliday sits at .264/.350/.421. Ignoring batting average, Swisher is still in the midst of a bounce back season with a .369 wOBA matching his output from 2006, when he launched 35 home runs. Unfortunately, Swisher’s BABIP has not regressed, resting at .256. It will be incredibly difficult to sustain this type of performance with a BABIP so low, but his BA does not paint an accurate performance portrait at all.

Holliday has improved over his last ten or so games, but that seasonal line is still lacking. To date, his closest slash line comp is Skip Schumaker of the Cardinals, certainly not company Holliday is accustomed to keeping. The season still has legs, but even with ZiPS projecting better performance out of the former Rockies star, his poor performance so far has definitely affected his true talent level. Should the ZiPS projections come to fruition, Holliday would finish the season hitting .279/.359/.458, numbers that have consistently garnered employment for Raul Ibanez but not what we have come to expect from Holliday. Then again, Matt could pick up steam, continue this torrid stretch, and make people forget he ever struggled. The change of scenery may have helped Swisher enjoy himself more and potentially start anew, but it has worked in the opposite way for Holliday.

Leave it to Francisco Liriano to produce one of the oddest lines I’ve seen in a while from a starting pitcher. The Boston Red Sox paid visit to Liriano and the Twins yesterday, and brought their offense with them. Liriano lasted only four innings, allowing no walks, 11 hits, and striking out seven. Usually you see a large number of strikeouts and fewer hits or a large number of hits and fewer strikeouts, in combination it presents a bit of a paradox.

Only seven times (now eight) had a starting pitcher went four and struck out at least seven without issuing any walks. Mike Witt in 1987 allowed eight hits to the Oakland Athletics; Don Sutton in 1986 also allowed eight hits, this time against Seattle, oddly both were members of the California Angels during the feat. John Smoltz and Juan Mateo were the last two pitchers to do it, with Smoltz’ turn coming in 2007 and Mateo’s almost a year prior in 2006. J.R. Richard in 1973 and Josh Beckett in 2002 share a common opponent in the Los Angeles Dodgers and neither allowed more than three hits.

Back to Liriano, here are his hit descriptions:
– Dustin Pedroia singles to left on a fly ball.
– Mike Lowell singles to left on a line drive.
– Rocco Baldelli doubles to right on a fly ball.
– Jacoby Ellsbury singles on a ground ball to shortstop.
– Dustin Pedroia singles to left on a fly ball.
– Kevin Youkilis doubles on a sharp ground ball to left.
– Jason Bay doubles on a ground ball to left.
– Mike Lowell singles to left on a sharp ground ball.
– Jacoby Ellsbury singles on a line drive to center.
– Dustin Pedroia singles on a ground ball to left.
– Kevin Youkilis doubles to left on a line drive.

Without seeing the game, it seems to me like Liriano had a few bloopers fall in, a slow roller to short, and a few down the line. I guess this was one of those games were everything that could go for a hit did, whether it was hit hardly or not. The BABIP gods are fickle, and apparently flexed their wrath all over Liriano yesterday.

Roy Halladay is good. I mean, really, really good. Without question, Halladay is one of those guys so consistently great that he gets overlooked due to flashes in the pan and pitchers that cobble together unexpectedly great seasons. Even more impressive than his raw figures and rates is the fact that these statistics have been accrued while facing the beasts of the AL East with regularity over the last several seasons.

This past Thursday, Doc turned in the type of performance we have come to expect, but the suddenly anemic Blue Jays could not muster any offense whatsoever. Despite seven scoreless innings from their ace, the Jays fell 1-0 to “rookie” Kenshin Kawakami and the Atlanta Braves:

Halladay’s performance was matched by Kawakami, as the latter scattered a mere three hits over eight frames, issuing nary a free pass while fanning seven. Kawakami started off a tad slow but has looked extremely solid over his last few outings. Both starting pitchers held the opposition scoreless, ultimately leading to a 1-0 win for the Braves on the heels of a Casey Kotchman sacrifice fly in the eighth inning.

Jesse Carlson, who had relieved Halladay after the seventh, surrendered a ground-rule double to Matt Diaz to begin the inning. Diaz advanced to third on a Yunel Escobar groundout, before scoring thanks to Kotchman’s flyball in a plate appearance with a 3.29 leverage index. Mike Gonzalez closed out the game for Kawakami, extending the Blue Jays losing streak and preventing Halladay from notching career win 140.

Regardless, Halladay has been absolutely phenomenal in the win category that actually means something: wins above replacement. Since 2002, including a couple seasons with lesser playing time due to injuries, here are Roy’s win values: 7.8, 8.0, 3.2, 4.4, 5.7, 5.8, 7.6. Following this particular outing, Halladay’s present win value shot up to 2.7. And if you consider that, in 2001, his 2.34 FIP in 105.1 innings bests his output in 2004–3.79 FIP in 133.0 innings–then Halladay had to have been in the range of 3.2-3.5 wins back then as well.

Since becoming a full-time starting pitcher, Roy Halladay has never seen his overall contribution fall lower than at least a win above an average pitcher, and those numbers were produced in partial seasons. His lowest win value in a full season is an astonishing 5.7 wins. In other words, Roy’s “worst” full season exceeded the production level of Johan Santana last season.

In last week’s top game, Halladay provided but another valid reason as to why he should not be left out of best active pitcher discussions. At 31 years old, he might not have another decade in the tank, but another few healthy seasons at his current pace and those Hall of Fame discussions are going to pick up steam almost exponentially.

2008 Draft Slot: 10th overall
Top Pick: Jason Castro, C, Stanford University
Best Pick: Jason Castro
Keep an Eye On: Ross Seaton, RHP, Houston high school (Third round)
Notes: The Astros organization made some interesting decisions during the 2008 draft. The club nabbed Ross Seaton in the supplemental third round after the talented Texan dropped out of first-round consideration due to signability concerns. The club used its supplemental first round pick on South Carolina prep pitcher Jordan Lyles, whom most clubs did not consider a top pick. Lyles, though, has pitched extremely well so far, which has made Houston’s scouts look incredibly wise. Both Lyles and Seaton are playing in low-A ball, with the former out-performing the latter. Jason Castro is having a solid offensive season in high-A ball and could potentially see double-A by the end of the year.

2007 Draft Slot: Third round (111th overall)
Top Pick: Derek Dietrich, 3B, Cleveland high school (Did not sign)
Best Pick: Collin DeLome, OF, Lamar University (Fifth round)
Worst Pick: David Dinelli, RHP, California junior college (6th round)
Notes: There is no sugar-coating the fact that this was an ugly draft. The Astros organization did not have a pick before the third round and then it failed to sign its third- and fourth-round selections. The sixth-round pick posted an ERA above 7.00 in two rookie seasons, and the seventh-round pick is hitting .134 in low-A ball in 2009. Collin DeLome is showing some promising power at double-A this season, but his average is modest and he’s walking just 3.3% of the time. There is also some hope for RHP Kyle Greenwalt (20th round).

2006 Draft Slot: 23rd overall
Top Pick: Max Sapp, C, Florida high school
Best Pick: Bud Norris, RHP, University of Cal Poly (6th round)
Worst Pick: Nick Moresi, OF, Fresno State University (3rd round)
Notes: Max Sapp suffered a severe case of viral meningitis this past off-season. He’ll miss the entire 2009 season, but that is hardly important at this point. He’s also still young. RHP Sergio Perez (2nd round) missed most of the 2008 after breaking his hand and injuring his groin. He’s currently working his way back into baseball shape in double-A. Third baseman Chris Johnson (4th round) has a chance to contribute at the Major League level, although probably not as an everyday player.

2009 Draft Slot: 21st overall
Draft Preference (2006-08): High school or prep players
MLB Club Need: Third base, Starting pitching, Relief pitching
Organizational Need: Right field, Shortstop, Second base, First base, Pitching
Organizational Strength: Catcher, Center field
Notes: The Astros organization has an extra pick in the supplemental third round (the only club with such a pick) after the team failed to sign its 2008 third-round selection Chase Davidson. The draft has definitely not been a strength of the team’s for quite some time. In fact, a few of the recent drafts have been almost laughable. The club did, though, take some interesting names last year so perhaps things are starting to improve. The club desperately needs some minor-league depth.

As we head towards the end of May, the lessons come with some instructive knowledge about what teams may do in the next two months. A losing streak that knocks a team out of contention could change who will be available on the trade market, while a surging player can enhance the chances that they end up on a contender with a strong performance now. We’ve seen both of those things, and more, over the past week. Let’s take a look at what we learned.

The Blue Jays are not the best team in the AL East.

Okay, we already knew this, but reality hit Toronto like a punch in the face this week, as the Jays got swept by the Red Sox and the Braves in consecutive series, and the six game losing streak knocked them out of their first place perch. The stars of the early season offense, which had carried the team through the first six weeks, disappeared during the the last seven days. Only the Lyle Overbay/Kevin Millar platoon provided any offense, and the lack of scoring proved a problem when the pitching managed to keep them close. Now basically tied with Boston and New York, the Jays are going to have a tough time keeping up with the big payroll twins over the rest of the season. It was a nice run while it lasted though.

It’s hard to win when your entire line-up slumps at the same time.

Just ask Cubs fans, who saw a bunch of good hitters simultaneously forget how to swing the stick. Derrek Lee managed to single his way into a decent batting average, but the rest of the offense was MIA. Geovany Soto went 3 for 17. Milton Bradley went 3 for 20. Kosuke Fukudome and Alfonso Soriano both went 2 for 21, though Fukukome at least walked four times, while Soriano didn’t manged to take a pitch even once. Reed Johnson went 2 for 24. The team managed a whopping six extra base hits the entire week, and the offense totaled five runs in six games. Not surprisingly, the Cubs lost them all. While it wasn’t much fun to watch, Chicago shouldn’t be too concerned – there are some legitimately good hitters on their roster, and the bats will come around.

Clayton Richard doesn’t really want to be traded.

The only major league player who was going to San Diego in the Jake Peavy deal, Richard apparently decided this would be a good week to show Kenny Williams that he might be worth hanging on to. He struck out 11 batters in 13 innings between his two starts, showing an improved breaking ball and keeping hitters off balance without overpowering stuff. Richard has been something of an afterthought in most circles, given his low strikeout rate and average velocity, but he’s now posted a 4.21 FIP over his first 81 major league innings. He’s certainly not an ace in the making, but his fastball has enough sink to make him a decent #5 starter, and the White Sox have to be pleased to still have him around right now.

Adam Kennedy is alive.

After being released by the St. Louis Cardinals, Kennedy had to take a minor league contract from the Tampa Bay Rays in order to keep playing baseball. With no real hope to contribute to the Tampa roster, he was sold to the A’s so they could give him a chance to hold down the fort at second base while Mark Ellis was hurt. He’s done that and then some, hitting .448/.515/.655 last week to bring his wOBA to .454 since joining the A’s. He won’t keep hitting like this, but ZIPS projects a .313 wOBA over the rest of the season, which makes Kennedy a pretty solid player when combined with his defensive skills at second base. Kennedy is just another example of quality players who can be acquired for no cost by teams who know what they’re doing.

Same format as last week, but first to address the corner outfield question. Both have equal positional adjustments, hence why I lumped them together. I understand some people would rather have separate the two positions listed separately, so heading forward that’s what I’ll do.

1B
Best: Chris Davis (3.4), Ryan Howard (3.3), Lyle Overbay (3.2)
Worst: Jason Giambi (-5.3), Prince Fielder (-3.3), Aubrey Huff (-3.2)

2B
Best: Brandon Phillips (6.6), Placido Polanco (6), Howie Kendrick (5.1)
Worst: Dan Uggla (-8.1), Chris Getz (-5), Jose Lopez (-2.9)

3B
Best: Adrian Beltre (7.7), Joe Crede (7.4), Evan Longoria (5.3)
Worst: Michael Young (-7.9), Josh Fields (-5.4), Chipper Jones (-4.6)

SS
Best: J.J. Hardy (5), Ryan Theriot (4.2), Marco Scutaro (4.2)
Worst: Yuniesky Betancourt (-9.1), Miguel Tejada (-6.9), Orlando Cabrera (-2.4)

LF
Best: Nyjer Morgan (10.9), Juan Rivera (4.9), Raul Ibanez (4.6)
Worst: Jason Bay (-6.4), Jeremy Hermida (-4.7), Carlos Lee (-4.2)

CF
Best: Matt Kemp (7.4), Mike Cameron (6.6), Franklin Gutierrez (5.7)
Worst: Vernon Wells (-10.3), Shane Victorino (-8.1), Carlos Beltran (-4.8)

RF
Best: Nelson Cruz (6.3), Hunter Pence (5.4), Ichiro Suzuki (4.2)
Worst: Andre Ethier (-9.4), Brad Hawpe (-7.6), Jermaine Dye (-7.2)

The Mariners have three players rank amongst the “best” at their position, which appears to be the most of any team in the league. Unfortunately, they also have two of the worst at the middle infield positions, including Betancourt, who stakes claim of the worst individual infield defender to date. Oddly the Mariners have chosen against using Ronny Cedeno in place of either Betancourt or Lopez despite the defensive upgrade.

Vernon Wells’ days as a good center fielder might be over. Over the last three years: -14.3, -1.1, 7.5, so far this year Wells is showing no signs of bouncing back, and actually seems to be getting worse. Whether that holds up or not is another story.

Ricky Nolasco is not having the season expected of him. Nolasco’s ninth start occurred last night, and it might be his last in a Florida uniform for a while. After the game he was optioned to Triple-A. That suggests how he fared. Sort by ERA descending on the leaderboards and you get the following grouping as the only qualified pitchers with ERA over 7:

Ricky Nolasco 9.07
Scott Kazmir 7.69
Jamie Moyer 7.62
Joe Blanton 7.11

Sort by FIP and you get Moyer at the top, Kazmir, Blanton, yet Nolasco is nowhere to be found.In fact, he’s far down the page, grouped with Roy Oswalt, Matt Cain, and John Maine. Those three have ERAs of 4.47, 2.65, and 4.53, giving you an idea of where Nolasco’s walk, strikeout, and homerun rates would theoretically place him. So if Nolasco’s peripherals are decent, what’s the problem with his ERA?

After last night, about 40% of the balls being put into place against Nolasco are resulting in non-homerun hits. To say that’s a bit on the high side is like saying a flood resulted from a little rain. Nolasco’s line drive rate is up to 26%, which hardly falls in line with his prior performances. Nolasco’s pitches are finding the zone slightly less while still maintaining similar break and velocity as in prior years. The excess hits are leading to an awful strand rate of 49.4%, Nolasco’s career strand rate is 68.1%.

Maybe Nolasco does have something to work on in Triple-A, but this move seems more like a space-clearer than anything else. The Marlins are in dire need of fresh arms for a pen overworked this week. If you have the room on your fantasy bench, stash Nolasco or if you see him waived, see if you can’t pick him up after he clears waivers. It’s not like his fantasy value can drop any further.

I’ll be honest, I have not really been following Alex Rodriguez since his return from injury, so his consecutive games with a home run streak led me to believe that he had been performing just fine. A quick glance at his OBP/SLG and wOBA entering last night’s action confirmed that, at .412/.595, and a wOBA north of .400, Rodriguez had certainly been helping the Yankees throughout their impressive winning streak. Then my attention quickly shifted to the first component of the slash line, BA, since his seemed ridiculously low. Coming into last night, Rodriguez had been slashing .189/.412/.595. Despite a sub-.200 BA, A-Rod was OPSing over 1.000!

After an 0-4 showing, his numbers look like this: .171/.382/.537, .398 wOBA. Can you recall an odder looking line of statistics? Rodriguez’s BABIP currently rests at a microscopic .069. He has seven hits in 41 at bats, five of which are jimmy-jacks. Some more oddities: the league average hitter is swinging at 24% of his pitches seen out of the zone, though A-Rod has swung at such pitches just 12% of the time. On these outside pitches, the league average makes contact 63% of the time; just 33% for Rodriguez.

Curious, I looked through my database for the leaderboards in two different areas: the highest OPS for players with batting averages of .200 or lower, and the lowest BA for players with OPS marks of 1.000 or higher.

Highest OPS, BA < = .200
#  NAME           YEAR      SLASH         OPS
1) Mark McGwire   2001  .187/.316/.492   .808
2) Elijah Dukes   2007  .190/.318/.391   .709
3) Roger Repoz    1971  .199/.333/.374   .707
4) Ruben Rivera   1999  .195/.295/.406   .701
5) Rob Deer       1991  .179/.314/.386   .700

You knew McGwire’s name had to be on here, but this definitely shows that A-Rod is currently performing in uncharted territories. The highest single-season OPS for a player with a sub-.200 BA is .808, over 100 points lower than Rodriguez’s current mark. There is no way Rodriguez continues to get hits on balls in play just 6.9 percent of the time, but don’t you dare ruin my fun! Here are the lowest batting averages for players with an OPS >= 1.000:

Lowest BA, OPS >= 1.000
#  NAME           YEAR      SLASH         OPS
1) Barry Bonds    1999  .262/.389/.617   1.006
2) Mark McGwire   1997  .274/.393/.646   1.039
3) Mark McGwire   1995  .274/.441/.685   1.126
4) Jim Edmonds    2003  .275/.384/.617   1.001
5) Reggie Jackson 1969  .275/.409/.608   1.017

So the lowest BA with correspondingly awesome OPS marks is .262, which is in no way what we consider to be a poor percentage of hits in at bats. The league averages, for hitters with at least 200 plate appearances:

OPS >=  1.000: .324 BA
BA  < =  .200: .542 OPS

A-Rod isn't going to sustain this low of a batting average if he continues to take walks and put the ball in play the way he usually does, but a slash line like his at the present certainly merits a few different double-takes. When those balls inevitably do fall in, watch out. Rodriguez is still an absolute beast and his slash line right now serves as the perfect example for why batting average tells us next to nothing on its own.

Joe Mauer has been one of the best hitters in the game for years. He owns a career .321 batting average and has walked more than he has struck out each year since 2006. His remarkable bat control has made him one of the game’s most valuable players, but questions about his lack of power have always followed him. Listed at 6’5 and 230 pounds, Mauer has the frame of a guy who should be able to drive the ball, but he’s never hit more than 13 home runs in a season. A compact, level swing and an opposite field approach have led him to develop into a really good singles hitter with gap power – until this year, anyway.

Since returning from the disabled list, Mauer has slugged eight home runs in 86 plate appearances. His next home run will tie his 2008 season total, and he’s 547 plate appearances away from matching his opportunities from last year. When you see a 26-year-old show a huge power spike like this, the natural assumption is that he’s finally learned to turn on the ball, and is starting to tap into his natural pull power.

The problem, however, is that it’s not true. Here’s his home run chart for 2009, via Hit Tracker Online:

Of the seven home runs that Hit Tracker has the data for (they’re still working on last night’s shot, I’m sure), five of them have been to the opposite field and two have been to dead center. The grand slam he hit yesterday against the White Sox was to nearly the same spot where he has hit all his other home runs. He has yet to pull the ball over the wall this season.

Now, opposite field home runs are great. Having a guy who can take a pitch on the outer half of the plate and deposit it over the wall drives pitchers nuts, and there’s no good way to pitch to a guy like Mauer. However, if we were looking for evidence that Mauer’s power surge in May has been caused by a significant shift in his abilities, we’d be more apt to give credence to the long ball barrage if it hadn’t been built on series of just enough shots to left center field.

Mauer’s a great hitter, and he’s having a great month. There’s probably some real power growth being displayed as he’s muscling balls over the wall in left field, but if he ever wants to be a 30+ home run guy, he’s going to have to pull the ball with some authority, and he’s not doing that right now.

I love Joe Mauer as a player, but if you were thinking that he’s showing signs of becoming one of the game’s elite sluggers, I don’t think it’s in the cards. He’s a fantastic hitter, but I wouldn’t count on seeing too many more months like this any time soon.