2008 Draft Slot: 24th overall
Top Pick: Anthony Hewitt, SS, Connecticut high school
Best Pick: Jason Knapp, RHP, New Jersey high school (2nd round, 71st overall)
Keep an Eye On: Vance Worley, RHP, Long Beach State (3rd round)
Notes: The club selected Anthony Hewitt with its first pick, but the oufielder is rawer than raw and struck out 55 times in 117 at-bats in rookie ball last year. It will be a long, long time before he’s ready to contribute in the Majors. Second selection Zach Collier (34th overall), another prep outfielder, is hitting well in low-A. Jason Knapp has been excellent so far in pro ball and his value has risen in a lot of people’s eyes. So far this season, he’s allowed 31 hits in 41.1 innings pitched with rates of 3.70 BB/9 and 12.63 K/9. College right-hander Vance Worley won’t wow you with his stuff, but he’s been consistent and could fit in at the back of the Phillies’ rotation in a couple of years.

2007 Draft Slot: 19th overall
Top Pick: Joe Savery, LHP, Rice University
Best Pick: Michael Taylor, OF, Stanford University (5th round)
Worst Pick: Travis Mattair, 3B, Washington high school (2nd round)
Notes: Joe Savery had some well-documented injury problems in college, but that did not scare the Phillies organization away from drafting him in the first round. He has pitched OK, but his stuff and results do not really scream “First-round pick!” He looks like a No. 3 starter at this point. Michael Taylor, on the other hand, is looking more and more like a huge steal (literally and figuratively) in the fifth round. The 6’6” outfielder is showing raw power and the ability to hit more than .300. Two high draft picks that were chosen out of high school have had disappointing 2009 seasons in low-A ball: catcher Travis D’Arnaud, and infielder Travis Mattair. Mattair’s slugging percentage has dropped in each of his three pro seasons down to .287 so far in 2009.

2006 Draft Slot: 18th overall
Top Pick: Kyle Drabek, RHP, Texas high school
Best Pick: Adrian Cardenas, SS, Florida high school (Supplemental first round, 37th overall)
Worst Pick: D’Arby Myers, OF, California high school (4th round)
Notes: Everything is bigger in Texas, except Kyle Drabek. The son of former pitcher Doug Drabek (Pittsburgh, Houston), Kyle showed good stuff in high school but some teams were turned off by his slight stature (5’11’) – even though he threw in the mid 90s. Drabek did break down and underwent Tommy John surgery in 2007, but he’s back now and throwing very well in high-A ball. There are still questions about his makeup and maturity, though. The club also picked up a very good prospect in Adrian Cardenas, whom the club shuffled to Oakland in the Joe Blanton trade last season. The Phillies picked up some more useful parts early in the draft, including shortstop Jason Donald, outfielder Quintin Berry, and right-hander Andrew Carpenter.

2009 Draft Slot: 75th overall
Draft Preference (2006-08): The organization mixes in prep and college picks
MLB Club Need: Starting pitching, Catcher, Third base
Organizational Need: Left field, First base, Second base, Shortstop
Organizational Strength: Third base, Right-handed pitching
Notes: Perhaps with the way outfielder Raul Ibanez is playing in Philly, fans will be less upset that the club gave away its first-round pick to sign him away from Seattle. It still won’t make for a fun day on June 9, though, as the club will be the last organizations to make a selection.

Over the past four years, few pitchers have been the punchline to more jokes than Carl Pavano. He was a total bust in New York, taking $40 million from the Yankees and offering nothing in return. His inability to stay healthy, or to pitch effectively on those rare days he did take the mound, made him despised by fans and teammates alike.

Over the winter, he hit the free agent market, and not surprisingly, there wasn’t a ton of interest in his services. He ended up signing an incentive laden one year contract with the Indians that guaranteed him just $1.5 million. Expectations were understandably low.

After his ninth start yesterday, Pavano’s ERA stands at 6.10. It would be easy to assume that he’s just continuing his downward descent out of baseball, and that Cleveland was simply the latest team to throw money away on the guy. It would also be remarkably untrue.

Pavano’s FIP currently stands at a robust 3.74, thanks to outstanding peripherals – 2.03 BB/9, 7.40 K/9, .92 HR/9, 45.9% GB%. Pavano’s racked up 40 strikeouts against just 11 walks in 48 2/3 innings, giving him a strikeout to walk rate equal to pitchers such as Erik Bedard, Aaron Harang, Jake Peavy, Ted Lilly, and Cliff Lee. That’s some pretty nifty company.

Pavano’s ERA has been inflated by a .370 batting average on balls in play, which will almost certainly improve as the year goes on. In fact, after a pessimistic preseason ZIPS projection that pegged him for a 5.18 FIP in 2009, the updated ZIPS now pegs him for a 4.36 FIP from here on out. After posting an ERA of 6.10 over 48 2/3 innings, ZIPS has been impressed enough to slash his projected FIP by 0.8 runs.

There’s probably no better example of why ERA isn’t a useful tool for evaluating pitchers anymore. Pavano’s got one of the highest marks in the league, but based on how he’s actually pitched, we should be revising our estimates significantly upward for his expected performance from here on out. His recovery probably won’t come in time to help save the Indians season, but a smart team may get a bargain at the deadline when they call Mark Shapiro and make a deal to bolster their pitching staff.

One of the most difficult tasks a responsible baseball analyst must take on involves avoiding small samples of data to make definitive claims about a player. If Victor Martinez goes 4-10, it does not automatically make him a .400 hitter. We have enough information about Martinez from previous seasons to know that his actual abilities fall well short of that mark. Not everything, however, should merit a house call from the small sample size police because there are some stats that stabilize more quickly than others. Additionally, a lot of the small sample size criticisms stem from the actual usage of the information, not the information itself. If Pat Burrell struggled mightily after the all star break last season and started this season with similarly poor numbers, we can infer that his skills may be eroding. Isolating these two stretches can prove to be inaccurate, but taking them together offers some valuable information.

The question asked most often with regards to small sample sizes is essentially – When are the samples not small anymore? As in, at what juncture does the data become meaningful? Martinez at 4-10 is meaningless. Martinez at 66-165, like he is right now, tells us much, much more, but still is not enough playing time. What are the benchmarks for plate appearances where certain statistics become reliable? Before giving the actual numbers, let me point out that the results are from this article from a friend of mine, Pizza Cutter over at Statistically Speaking. Warning: that article is very research-heavy so you must put on your 3D-Nerd Goggles before journeying into the land of reliability and validity. Also, Cutter mentioned that he would be able to answer any methodological questions here, so ask away. Half of my statistics background is from school or independent study and the other half is from Pizza Cutter, so do not be shy.

Cutter basically searched for the point at which split-half reliability tests produced a 0.70 correlation or higher. A split-half reliability test involves finding the correlations between partitions of one dataset. For instance, taking all of Burrell’s evenly numbered plate appearances and separating them from the odd ones, and then running correlations on both. When both are very similar, the data becomes more reliable. Though a 1.0 correlation indicated a perfect relationship, 0.70 is usually the ultimate benchmark in statistical studies, especially relative to baseball, when DIPS theory was derived from correlations of lesser strength. Without further delay, here are the results of his article as far as when certain statistics stabilize for individual hitters:

 50 PA: Swing %
100 PA: Contact Rate
150 PA: Strikeout Rate, Line Drive Rate, Pitches/PA
200 PA: Walk Rate, Groundball Rate, GB/FB
250 PA: Flyball Rate
300 PA: Home Run Rate, HR/FB
500 PA: OBP, SLG, OPS, 1B Rate, Popup Rate
550 PA: ISO

Cutter went to 650 PA as his max, meaning that the exclusion of statistics like BA, BABIP, WPA, and context-neutral WPA indicates that they did not stabilize. So, here you go, I hope this assuages certain small sample misconceptions and provides some insight into when we can discuss a certain metric from a skills standpoint. There are certain red flags with an analysis like this, primarily that playing time is not assigned randomly and by using 650 PA, a chance exists that a selection bias may shine through in that the players given this many plate appearances are the more consistent players. Cutter avoids the brunt of this by comparing players to themselves. Even so, these benchmarks are tremendous estimates at the very least.

Tonight will mark the starting debut of highly anticipated Rangers prospect, Derek L. Holland. As many of you know, Holland has already pitched in the bigs this year, seven times, oddly enough he registered his first career blown save before his first major league start. Go figure. So far his strikeout, walk, and homerun ratios have been off, leaving Holland with a 5.65 FIP, higher than most of his minor league career’s FIP combined.

Holland’s fastball has above average velocity and horizontal movement for a left-hander. He featured the pitch prominently in relief work. As for specifics, Holland throws it between 92-94 and generally sees it break in to lefties around eight inches. His slider is registering as breaking in to lefties. It’ll be interesting to see how and if Holland adjusts from throwing his fastball 80% of the time as he transitions back to the rotation.

Opposing Holland will be the Houston Astros. The only offenses in the NL scoring less than Houston are the D-Backs, Giants, and Padres, which tells you just about everything you need to know. The Astros do have some ‘fear’-inducing hitters like Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, Hunter Pence, and Miguel Tejada, but the rest of their lineup is lacking at this point. Houston strikes out a ton and doesn’t walk too much, so that bodes well for the youngster.

Two things that may not bode well: his durability and efficiency. Here are each of Holland’s appearances listed with innings and pitches thrown.

2.1 IP 42 P
3 IP 48 P
1 IP 29 P
2 IP 16 P
0.1 IP 3 P
1.2 IP 20 P
2.2 IP 58 P

An average of 16.6 pitches per inning with a max of 58 pitches. It’s been a while since Holland extended beyond 60, and at this rate he would reach that point by the fourth inning. Without a DH, you have to wonder if Holland lasts more than twice through the lineup tomorrow, no matter how well he’s pitching.

Normally, you expect players that excel at defense to lack offense and vice versa. It is rare that a player can be excellent at both, that group makes up our small core of annual MVP candidates. That makes our (very) early season leaders in UZR so interesting. They are, by and large, an exquisite group of hitting talent. Let’s go through the positions, as outlined by R.J. Anderson a few days ago.

I lead off with the worst example, Chris Davis at first base. Davis has just a .313 wOBA on the year, though he is certainly projected to hit a lot better than that. Of note is that right behind him on the defensive side of things is Ryan Howard and his .381 wOBA. At second base, we stay in Texas and have Ian Kinsler leading the league and pairing his defense with a .415 wOBA.

At shortstop we have the breakout Marco Scutaro who has nearly eclipsed his 2008 totals in home runs and walks already, in just a third of the games he played last season. His .379 wOBA gives up one potent middle infield. At third, Ryan Zimmerman is certainly no slouch with the bat this season. Just off his 30 game hitting streak, Ryan’s wOBA still stands at a robust .434 figure.

Our outfield is perfectly aligned with Jay Bruce in right, Mike Cameron in center and Nyger Morgan in left. Bruce hasn’t been much in terms of batting average, hitting just .239, but his 12 home runs and 13 walks give him a .358 wOBA. Mike Cameron was almost given away this winter by the Brewers who are very content that they resisted. His .282/.392.550 line is good for a .408 wOBA. Finally, Nyger Morgan is no power threat, lacking even a single home run on the year, but his great speed (three triples) and eye (17 walks to 26 strikeouts) give him a .339 wOBA.

All combined, the seven hitters currently leading their respective positions in UZR possess a total figure of 12.6 WAR already this season. Over a full season were these rates to hold, as unlikely as that is, they would accumulate roughly 45 wins.

While discussing the virtues of Mark Buehrle earlier this week, I made sure to point out that the White Sox lefty is only 30 years old despite having the veteran reputation of being older. In the comments of that thread, somebody mentioned that Wandy Rodriguez could be the next pitcher to not only match Buehrle in terms of consistent durability but also with regards to consistently high win values. I hate to break it to those on the Wandy-Wagon, but this is not going to happen.

Don’t get me wrong, Rodriguez has pitched quite well since 2007, but he is currently in the opposite situation of Buehrle. Though Rodriguez may have the reputation of a younger prospect-type pitcher who has finally turned a corner, raise your hand if you knew, without looking it up, that he, too, turned 30 years old this year. Buehrle jumped onto the scene at the tender age of 21 and has been pretty fantastic ever since. Wandy debuted at the age of 26 and did not really become effective until he turned 28.

At 30 years old, Rodriguez likely still has several effective seasons in the tank, but there is absolutely no comparison between he and Buehrle. Through nine starts this season, however, Rodriguez has been tremendous. In 59 innings, he has surrendered just 43 hits with a 53/16 K/BB ratio. Put together, Wandy has already amassed +2.1 wins on the heels of a 1.83 ERA and 2.52 FIP.

Since his 2005 call-up, Wandy has essentially improved in FIP, UBB/9, K/9, HR/9, and WAR each season. He relies more on acumen than raw stuff since, well, 88-89 mph with average-ish movement isn’t all that impressive.

The two big red flags relative to his current production level are the strand rate and percentage of home runs per fly ball. The league averages for both metrics are 72% and 11%, respectively; Wandy currently sits at 80% and 1.6%. The 80% strand rate becomes more significant given his individual context; Wandy has been at 72% or lower in all four of his previous seasons. When the home run rate and strand rate both normalize, his numbers are going to venture into the wrong direction.

Even so, ZiPS sees Rodriguez capable of a 4.32 ERA and 3.83 FIP over the remainder of the season, meaning his bottom line marks of 3.51 and 3.37 would still be career bests. After two consecutive +2.7 win seasons, he is currently on pace to produce right around +5 wins.

Wandy is certainly deserving of attention and multiple looks, but do not get him confused with someone like Johnny Cueto or Ubaldo Jimenez, young flamethrowers who seem poised to turn a corner before turning 26. Rodriguez’s future may include a few more +3-4 win seasons, but he does not belong in the category of young studs finally reaching their potential.

Today, the Padres actually made a trade. No, not the Peavy deal – that one is still up to the San Diego ace, who is trying to figure out if he wants to get exposed in the American League. While they were waiting to find out what their star pitcher would do, the Padres shipped off Jody Gerut to Milwaukee in exchange for Tony Gwynn Jr.

I guess no one else in baseball thought Gerut could repeat his 2008 season either.

Greut was quite the story last year, posting a .365 wOBA in 356 plate appearances after spending two years out of major league baseball. UZR even loved his defense in center field, giving him a +12.2 UZR/150 for the half season he spent patrolling Petco. The combination of good offense and terrific defense made Gerut a +3.2 win player.

Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to carry the magic over to 2009. In his first 221 plate appearances, he’s hitting .221/.248/.381, and while he’s still playing excellent defense in CF, the Padres apparently decided that last year’s offensive levels were a fluke. With Scott Hairston tearing the cover off the ball, Gerut was the odd man out, so they sent him to Milwaukee.

In exchange, they got Tony Gwynn Jr, who is a classic fifth outfielder and has about that much value. Gwynn cleared waivers six weeks ago, so he’s not exactly a hot commodity in baseball. Yea, he was hitting well and getting on base in Triple-A, but his total lack of power gives him limited upside. He could be a decent defensive replacement, but there’s a reason he has a .276 wOBA in the big leagues. There’s not much offense to be found in the younger Gwynn.

So, this essentially plays out like a salary dump. The Padres give up on Gerut after a slow start, saving a little bit of cash and picking up a replacement level league minimum outfielder in return. Gerut’s 2008 probably was a fluke, but I’m not sure why San Diego felt motivated to move on from a guy who was one of their best players last year when they aren’t really getting anything in return.

2008 Draft Slot: 18th overall
Top Pick: Ike Davis, 1B/OF, Arizona State University
Best Pick: Reese Havens, IF, University of South Carolina (1st round, 22nd overall)
Keep an Eye On: Javier Rodriguez, OF, Puerto Rico high school (2nd round)
Notes: Javier Rodriguez was the first selection out of Puerto Rico but he hit just .193 in his rookie-ball debut. No one is worried, though, as the outfielder is very young and loaded with talent. Both Ike Davis and Reese Havens had disappointing debuts, while supplemental first round pick Brad Holt surprised everyone with his success. All three are in high-A ball in 2009 and Holt is still pitching well. Havens is showing more power than people expected (7 HR, .225 ISO) but he’s struggling to hit for average (.254). Davis is hitting for average, but he has just one home run in 352 at-bats, which is puzzling and very, very worrisome.

2007 Draft Slot: 42nd overall (Supplemental first round)
Top Pick: Eddie Kunz, RHP, Oregon State University
Best Pick: Dillon Gee, RHP, U of Texas-Arlington (21st round)
Worst Pick: Nathan Vineyard, LHP, Georgia high school (Supplemental 1st round, 47th overall)
Notes: Nathan Vineyard was not overly effective as a pro before blowing out his shoulder. He should be back in the second half of May, but it remains to be seen how effectively he’ll be as he already didn’t throw very hard prior to surgery and his best pitch (a slider) may have been the cause of the injury. Eddie Kunz is a perfect example of why it’s risky to choose relievers early in the draft. If a starter struggles, he can move to the bullpen. If a reliever struggles, he… Dillon Gee was a steal in the 21st round as he is already in triple-A and pitching well. The downside is that with a modest fastball that plays up due to command and control, Gee’s ceiling is that of a No. 4 starter or middle reliever.

2006 Draft Slot: 62nd overall (Second round)
Top Pick: Kevin Mulvey, RHP, Villanova University
Best Pick: Daniel Murphy, 3B, Jacksonville University (13th round)
Worst Pick: John Holdzkom, RHP, Salt Lake community college (4th round)
Notes: Like brother Lincoln, John Holdzkom just could not stay out of trouble or make the most of his blazing fastball. Daniel Murphy, already in New York, was a steal in the 13th round and he would be even better if he could play defense like he can hit. Now with the Twins organization, Kevin Mulvey – who has yet to get to the Majors – was used as part of the bait for Johan Santana.

2009 Draft Slot: 72nd overall (Second round)
Draft Preference (2006-08): College pitchers and hitters
MLB Club Need: First base, Starting pitcher, Catcher, Left field
Organizational Need: Outfield, Second base, Left-handed pitching
Organizational Strength: Shortstop, Third base
Notes: Thanks to the signing of closer Francisco Rodriguez, the Mets will not pick until 71 players have already gone off the board, so the club will have to scout really well to find a good sleeper, or hope that a top player slides due to signability concerns. The good news is that the club has worked with similar draft scenarios in the past few seasons, so it should be getting used to it. The bad news is that the club has had a number of disappointing drafts for that very reason. Another plus, though, is that the organization does very, very well in the international market, which always seems to make up for poor draft showings.

Yesterday David Appleman announced a new section at FanGraphs showing the Linear Weights Run Value for each pitcher and pitch type. He asked me to write a short explanation of how these values are calculated.

The run value of any event is the change in the expected number of runs scored over the rest of the inning from before and after the event happened. The expected number of runs scored is the average number scored from a given out and base-occupancy state. Let’s take Tuesday’s Oakland at Tampa Bay game as an example. At the top of the 1st inning with zero on and zero out the average team scores 0.55 runs. Orlando Cabrera hit a single off of Jamie Shields. Now with a runner on first and none out the average team scores 0.95 runs. So the run value of the single was 0.55-0.95=0.4.

You can do the same thing taking each pitch as as event rather than the outcome of each at-bat. To do this you need to know the run expectancy from each count, in other words, the average run value of all events from at-bats which pass through a given count. For example the run expectancy of a 3-0 count is 0.2, on average at-bats from that count are worth about half of a single.

Now we can run through Cabrera’s at-bat with Shields as an example of valuing each pitch in an at-bat.

0-0: Run Value 0.00

Pitch 1: Fastball for a ball

1-0: Run Value 0.03

So the value of that first pitch was 0.03 runs. On average the A’s will score 0.03 more runs than before Shields threw the pitch.

1-0: Run Value 0.03

Pitch 2: Fastball for a called strike

1-1: Run Value -0.02

The run value of that fastball was -0.02-0.03 =-0.05.

1-1: Run Value -0.02

Pitch 3: Fastball for a called strike

1-2: Run Value -0.08

The run value of that fastball was -0.06. You can see here that the run value of a strike (or any other event) is count-dependent.

1-2: Run Value -0.08

Pitch 4: Fastball for a ball

2-2: Run Value -0.04

The run value of that fastball was 0.04.

2-2: Run Value -0.04

Pitch 5: Change fouled off

2-2: Run Value -0.04

Since the count did not change the run expectancy did not, so the run value of this changeup was 0.

2-2: Run Value -0.04

Pitch 6: Fastball hit for a single

Runner on first no outs: Run Value 0.4

The run value of this fastball is the change in run expectancy, 0.4-(-0.04) = 0.44.

Shields threw five fastballs valued at 0.03, -0.05,-0.06,0.04 and 0.44. He threw one changeup that had a value of 0.00. These values are the change in run expectancy in the game, so a negative number is a good for the pitcher (fewer runs scored). On the player pages the numbers are flipped so a positive number indicates a good pitch, the number of runs saved by those pitches.

For what seems like the 387th time, Jake Peavy can go to Chicago if he wants to. Only this time, it’s the south side, as the White Sox and Padres have reportedly agreed on a deal that would Peavy to the Pale Hose for a group of unnamed prospects.

It’s obviously impossible to judge a deal like this when the return going to San Diego is unknown. However, I’m willing to bet that I’m not going to be a big fan of this move for the White Sox. Peavy has the statistics and reputation of being one of baseball’s premier pitchers, but when you strip away Petco Park and the National League, he’s more of a good pitcher than a great one.

For his career, Peavy has a 3.73 K/BB rate at Petco, and he’s allowed one home run every 56.3 plate appearances while pitching at home. On the road, his K/BB is 2.54, and he allows one home run every 30.8 plate appearances. The vast expanse of the outfield in San Diego not only turns long fly balls into outs, but it allows Peavy to be more aggressive with his pitch selection and challenge hitters with pitches he can’t get away with in stadiums that aren’t as forgiving. Away from Petco, hitters have put up a .245/.316/.419 line against him, which certainly isn’t bad, but also isn’t ace-like.

Then, you have to factor in the contract. Over the next 3 1/2 years, he’s owed about $57 million, and that jumps to $75 million over 4 1/2 years if the White Sox are required to pick up his 2013 option in order to get him to agree to the deal. Ace or not, Peavy is paid like one. It’s a huge monetary commitment, and while the White Sox certainly have money, that kind of required cost is a drag on Peavy’s value.

Parting with several good young players for the right to pay Peavy like a frontline starter and learn that he’s benefited tremendously from his environment doesn’t seem like a great idea to me. I’d imagine the Braves are pretty happy they didn’t end up making a deal for Peavy this winter, and the White Sox might be better off in the long run if the pitcher decides he wants to stay in the National League.

If I was a White Sox fan, I’d be hoping Peavy nukes this deal.