The Brewers suffered a blow yesterday when it was announced that Rickie Weeks would need season ending surgery on his wrist. Weeks was off to a strong start to the ’09 season, racking up a +1.5 win value in 162 plate appearances. He was showing significant power, and more importantly for a heavily right-handed Brewers line-up, he was lighting up right-handed pitching, helping Milwaukee compensate for a lack of left-handed bats in the line-up. Replacing Weeks’ production will be near impossible for the Brewers.

They do have options, though. Craig Counsell continues to defy the aging curve, showing surprising bat speed for a 38-year-old and playing his usual excellent defense. Counsell has been a league average major leaguer for each of the last three years, making him one of baseball’s best part-time players. He’s capable of stepping into a full time role at second and not creating a hole.

If the Brewers wanted to get a more offensive arrangement, they could slide Bill Hall over to second base and let Mat Gamel play third. However, with a pitch to contact staff and a defense that is one of the main reasons the surging Brewers are in first place, the team is understandably wary of downgrading significantly at two infield spots and forcing their starting pitchers to overcome the gloves behind them rather than be empowered by them.

The Brewers have options. This is one of the reasons teams have become reluctant to move “blocked” players, as injuries inevitably pile up and allow the team to avoid panicking when they are forced to deviate from their original plan. Milwaukee fans should be grateful that they have a management staff who gave them a roster that could handle the loss of one of their better players. Rather than having to ship off a prospect to bring in a stop gap replacement, the Brewers can patch the hole at second base for the rest of 2009 internally, and then give Weeks his job back next spring.

Losing Weeks will hurt the Brewers, but it won’t cripple them, thanks to good planning and resource allocation by the front office.

Justin Verlander came into the 2009 season working off of a 2008 campaign that saw his ERA rise from 3.66 coupled with an 18-6 record to 4.84 with a corresponding 11-17 record. That’s the impression most people would hold when judging how Verlander performed. More stat savvy fans would instead point to Verlander’s FIP barely moving at all, going from 3.99 in 2007 to 4.18 last year as proof that he wasn’t actually much different last year. Both view points are partially right.

Verlander was indeed worse in 2008. He had 20 fewer strikeouts with 14 more batters faced. He walked 20 more as well. A slight dip in home runs allowed (two) helped keep the FIP jump to a minimum. However, beyond the troubling strikeout and walk numbers, Verlander also lost a sizable chunk off his fastball velocity. His average fastball in 2006 and 2007 was right at 95 miles per hour. In 2007 that dropped all the way down to 93.6.

2009 has seen a marked reversal in all the above mentioned categories. Justin Verlander’s fastball is up to a 95.3 mph average, the highest sustained speed of his career. Correspondingly, he is missing fat more bats than ever before as well and seeing his strikeout rate jump to over 12 per nine while his walk rate has returned to the 2006-7 level of right around three per nine innings. Verlander’s ERA is still 4.29, but his FIP is 2.39, illustrating just how big of an improvement he has made.

The only area Verlander has not seen gains in is in his batted ball profile. Verlander’s ground ball percentage dropping under 40% for the first time, to 39.9%, in 2008. It is currently at just over 28%. That’s a significant decline. Verlander has been keeping away from the home runs thanks to just 5.4% of his fly balls landing over the wall, a figure that is not sustainable.

Still, Verlander has been on a roll. Over his last four starts, he has recorded 9, 11, 11 and 13 strikeouts. He is a big reason why Detroit finds itself in first place in the AL Central.

When an otherwise average player suddenly puts up one of the best seasons of the decade, fans are not only going to take notice, but they will also be very skeptical that the performance can continue. The kneejerk reaction is to suggest regression to the mean in the coming season(s), especially if the solid numbers were more contingent upon luck based indicators than the controllable skills that tend to stabilize quickly. In the case of Cliff Lee, the bandwagon of fans suggesting he would stink this year grew as vast as the group that swore last season was “for real.”

Even though Lee’s strikeout, walk, and groundball rates were more responsible for his turnaround, the majority of fans felt he would come nowhere near a repeat performance this season. When Lee’s first two starts ended with 17 hits and 11 earned runs in just ten innings of action, confirmation biases reigned supreme.

A confirmation bias is essentially what happens when someone actively seeks evidence to confirm what they think is true. With regards to Lee, someone who felt he would significantly regress would view these two game lines and proclaim that the Cliffer had finally gone back to his old ways.

Well, eight starts into the season, Lee’s line looks like this: 8 GS, 54 IP, 3.00 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 7.0 K/9, 2.2 BB/9. His 1.41 WHIP is not likely to stay as high nor is the 81% strand rate that has virtually canceled out the walks and hits ratio. Lee has already produced +1.7 wins in spite of two poor outings to start the season.

Since his second start, Lee has gone 44 innings while surrendering just seven earned runs. He has a tidy 4.0 K/BB thanks to 32 punchouts and eight free passes. Even though Lee got off to a rough start, he has rebounded very nicely to the tune of a 1.43 ERA and 2.78 FIP over his last six starts. With the dominating season turned in last year and his stellar performance so far, ZiPS sees Lee finishing this campaign with a 3.43 FIP in 208 innings. Numbers like that resemble John Danks‘ line from 2008, which produced +5.2 wins.

Cliff Lee might never again surpass the +7 win plateau but his current pace will still likely merit some award votes and a spot on the all star team. He does not have the pedigree or reputation of a Halladay that would instill supreme confidence into the minds of fans, but Lee has, through eight starts, done plenty to show that last season was not a fluke.

2008 Draft Slot: 40th overall (Supplemental first round)
Top Pick: Brett DeVall, LHP, Florida high school
Best Pick: Zeke Spruill, RHP, Alabama high school (2nd round, 70th overall)
Keep an Eye On: Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Georgia community college (Third round)
Notes: The organization focused on pitching in the early rounds, taking three prep hurlers (Brett DeVall, Tyler Stovall, and Zeke Spruill) and one southern community college pitcher (Craig Kimbrel) before the fourth round. Kimbrel had a nice start to the year and earned a quick promotion to high-A but his control collapsed and he’s walked 18 batters in 10.2 innings of work (with 15 Ks too). Stovall is still in extended spring training, while DeVall was assigned to low-A in May. Spruill has been with low-A since the beginning of the year and he has a 1.91 ERA (2.73 FIP) in 42.1 innings.

2007 Draft Slot: 14th overall
Top Pick: Jason Heyward, OF, Georgia high school
Best Pick: Jason Heyward
Worst Pick: Jon Gilmore, 3B, Iowa high school (Supplemental first round, 33rd overall)
Notes: Jon Gilmore helped the Braves acquire Javier Vazquez from the Chicago White Sox, but the infielder has yet to hit more than .200 above rookie ball in two tries. Along with Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman (78th overall) has the chance to develop into a special offensive player. This was a very unusual draft for the Braves because the organization usually focuses on pitching, but it stayed true to its roots by drafting mostly prep players.

2006 Draft Slot: 24th overall
Top Pick: Cody Johnson, 1B, Florida high school
Best Pick: Cole Rohrbough, LHP, Nevada community college (22nd round)
Worst Pick: Cody Johnson
Notes: With seven picks in the first three rounds, the organization mixed pitching and hitting while taking just one college player. The club shocked a lot of people by taking Cody Johnson with its first pick, as the youngster was known for his massive power – and high strikeout totals in high school. The club has had a lot of bad luck with the prep pitchers it took early in the draft. Both RHP Cory Rasmus (Colby’s brother) and LHP Steve Evarts have had surgery, and Evarts has also had disciplinary issues (which haunted him in high school too). LHP Jeff Locke (51st overall) has had the best luck (and success) and is currently holding his own in high-A. LHP Cole Rohrbough has been slowed by injuries this year, but he was an absolute steal in the 22nd round.

2009 Draft Slot: Seventh overall
Draft Preference (2006-08): Prep pitchers, then high school hitters
MLB Club Need: Relief pitching, Outfield
Organizational Need: Third base, Shortstop, Second base
Organizational Strength: Right-handed pitching, Left-handed pitching
Notes: The club has a lot of pitching depth, especially in the low minors. Triple-A starter Tommy Hanson (2005 draft) is probably the best of the bunch even though he’s been passed over for a promotion a couple of times. There is not a ton of outfield depth, but there are a few very promising young outfielders like Jordan Schafer (currently in Atlanta) and Heyward.

Just as we thought that baseball was returning to normalcy, we have a week like the last one, where unexpected and interesting things occur. Let’s take a look at what we learned in the last seven days.

The Rangers aren’t going away.

Texas is riding a seven game winning streak thanks to some terrific performances from their position players. They continued thumping the ball as always, hitting .277/.352/.505, but those same big bats also continued to flash the leather – the Rangers held opponents to just a .259 batting average on balls in play last week, and they continue to impress with their ability to take away hits and support their pitching staff. Elvis Andrus is the early leader in the clubhouse for American League Rookie of the Year, as he’s playing at a +4 win level through the early part of the season. Not bad for a 20-year-old.

The Tigers role players can hit.

Detroit got some monster offensive performances last week, but it wasn’t Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez, or Curtis Granderson swinging the hot bat. Try Ramon Santiago, Jeff Larish, and Ryan Raburn instead. Those three had wOBAs of .870, .615, and .605 respectively over the last seven days. Santiago, in particular, is trying to prove that last year’s offensive surge was for real. He was one of the worst hitters in baseball during his early career, but he hit .282/.411/.460 in ’08 and he’s followed it up with a .352/.386/.611 line so far this year. This is a guy with a career .353 slugging percentage in the minor leagues, and he racked up six extra base hits in 12 at-bats last week. Baseball is a crazy, weird game.

The Cardinals miss Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick

With two of their regular outfielders on the disabled list, St. Louis needed to get some help from their reserves last week. They didn’t get it. Chris Duncan went 1 for 13. Colby Rasmus went 3 for 16. Nick Stavinoha and Shane Robinson combined to go 6 for 26. Those four gave them a whopping two extra base hits in five games. Albert Pujols is awesome, but he can’t do it by himself. St. Louis is going to have to get some production from positions other than first base while their two starters are on the DL, or they’re going to be digging themselves out of a hole by the time they get back.

Strikeouts are great and all, but home runs are a killer.

The Florida Marlins pitching staff racked up an impressive 9.35 K/9 last week, which isn’t all that surprising considering the talent they have in their rotation. Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson, and Chris Volstad are all very good arms capable of making hitters look foolish. Unfortunately, all three made mistakes in the strike zone as well, and they paid dearly for it, as the Marlins also gave up 1.76 HR/9, which was the driving force behind their 6.35 ERA. You can strike out all the batters you want, but if you keep giving up the long ball, you aren’t going to win too many games.

David Wright doesn’t want to be blamed for the Mets struggles.

An early season target for criticism, Wright has shut up those who were picking his game apart to begin the year. Last week, he hit .556/.625/.741 and stole five bases to boot, making him one of the game’s most productive all-around players. The updated ZIPS projection here on the site has Wright hitting 23 more home runs and stealing 19 more bases, which would give him 26 home runs and 29 steals to end the year. He’s got a legitimate shot at 30-30 if he can stay hot, and you don’t get that kind of power-speed production from a corner infielder very often. Wright is legitimately one of the superstars in today’s game, and hopefully people will begin to realize just how good this kid is.

Quantifying the contributions of a manager is a very difficult task in the world of baseball evaluations. Regardless, even those who feel that managers do very little can agree that one responsibility involves accurately filling out the lineup card prior to a game. Rays manager Joe Maddon seemingly could not handle this responsibility yesterday, leading to a ruling that places Sunday’s Rays-Indians game atop all others this week.

Though Clayton Kershaw and his seven no-hit innings certainly made a solid argument and the three consecutive walk-off wins for the Yankees stated an impressive case, Maddon’s blunder and the results surpassed all others.

For those who have not yet heard, Maddon penciled in both Evan Longoria and Ben Zobrist at third base. The ‘5’ on the lineup card next to Longoria’s name was circled, suggesting he would actually be the designated hitter. After Zobrist played the field in the top of the first, Indians skipper Eric Wedge pointed out the flaw. Thirteen grueling minutes later, the umpires stripped the Rays of their right to use a designated hitter, meaning that Andy Sonnanstine would be their third hitter.

B.J. Upton led off with a walk and promptly stole second base. Carl Crawford then singled him in, bringing Sonnanstine to the plate. Sonny tried to sacrifice Crawford along but ended up reaching first on a fielder’s choice force out.

In the top of the second, Ben Francisco hit a three-run homer to put the Tribe ahead, 3-1. A half-inning later, Jason Bartlett tripled and crossed home plate courtesy of a Gabe Kapler groundout. The game remained 3-2 in favor of the Indians until the bottom of the fourth inning, when the Rays erupted for five runs. Prior to that inning, Sonnanstine had batted again and struck out.

The five-run rally kicked off when Ben Zobrist started the frame with a triple. Bartlett then singled him home to knot the game at three runs apiece. Kapler walked and Akinori Iwamura singled to load the bases with nary an out. Michel Hernandez then delivered a bases clearing double to put the Rays ahead, 6-3. After Upton and Crawford were both retired, Sonnanstine launched a double over the head of the quite shallow Ryan Garko, scoring Hernandez.

Sonnanstine lasted until the sixth inning and left with a 7-5 lead. Though he got the win, he did not necessarily pitch that well. Maybe he took his poor at bats back to the mound with him. The last time this odd ruling came into play was on July 23, 1999, when Mike Hargrove messed up the fielding positions of Manny Ramirez and Alex Ramirez, meaning Charles Nagy had to bat. It isn’t uncommon to see a pitcher record a win while going 1-3 with an RBI at the dish… but it is very odd to see this occur in a league specifically designed to avoid pitchers hitting.

Almost a fourth of the way into the season, let’s take some position-by-position glances at the best and worst defenders.

1B
Best: Chris Davis (3.9), Ryan Howard (3.2), Lyle Overbay (2.9)
Worst: Jason Giambi (-3.9), Nick Johnson (-3.4), Joey Votto (-3.3)

2B
Best: Ian Kinsler (5.4), Rickie Weeks (5.4), Brandon Phillips (5.3)
Worst: Skip Schumaker (-7), Dan Uggla (-5.7), Chris Getz (-5)

3B
Best: Ryan Zimmerman (6.7), Joe Crede (6.4), Evan Longoria (5.6)
Worst: Michael Young (-7), Josh Fields (-4.1), Chipper Jones (-3.8)

SS
Best: Marco Scutaro (4.9), Elvis Andrus (4.2), Ryan Theriot (3.6)
Worst: Yuniesky Betancourt (-8.2), Khalil Greene (-4.4), Miguel Tejada (-4.3)

COF
Best: Nyjer Morgan (9.9), Jay Bruce (8), Brandon Moss (7.7)
Worst: Jason Bay (-9), Andre Ethier (-8.4), Adam Dunn (-8.2)

CF
Best: Mike Cameron (7.8), Matt Kemp (7.3), Franklin Gutierrez (5.7)
Worst: Shane Victorino (-7.5), Vernon Wells (-5.8), Elijah Dukes (-3.8)

A few other tidbits:

Proof that this amount of UZR data is pretty useless in predictive value, Carlos Beltran ranks as the fourth worst center fielder in the entire league at -3.5 runs. Over the last three years, Beltran’s UZR have been 8.8, 1.2, and 5.3. Even if you think his skills have declined, he’s unlikely to keep up this pace, which would have him at nearly -12 over 150 games.

The Pirates are your new team UZR leaders at 17.5, ahead of the Rays (16.3), Reds (15.2), Rangers (15.2), and Brewers (14.5). Meanwhile, on the other side of the spectrum, the Nationals (-18.3), Mets (-14.4), White Sox (-14.4), Red Sox (-12), and Orioles (-9) rate as the worst set of gloves in the league.

Ivan Rodriguez hit career homerun number 300 on Sunday, putting himself in a special fraternity of backstops. Entering Sunday, only seven catchers had totaled 300 or more career homeruns while playing at least 3/4ths of their game at the position. They were:

Mike Piazza 427
Johnny Bench 389
Carlton Fisk 376
Yogi Berra 358
Lance Parrish 324
Gary Carter 324

ZiPS’ latest update has Pudge finishing with an additional seven homeruns through the end of the season, putting him about 17 shy of Parrish and Carter. Rodriguez’ placement on that list is pretty amazing when you consider his defensive reputation – well earned, mind you – as perhaps the best ever. Remember, Rodriguez has played the second most games at catcher of anyone in the history of the league, just over 2,300. That’s second to Carlton Fisk at 2,499. Depending on how Rodriguez’ season goes, he could find himself challenging that record at some point next season — assuming he can find a team.

Perhaps equally impressive to Pudge’s feat is Piazza’s. Sure, Piazza had his defensive shortcomings, especially later on, but his offensive totals are still awe-inspiring given the beatings he took behind the plate. Piazza ranks 14th in total games played as a backstop. As for some other catchers and their homerun totals, here’s a look at how ridiculous 300 homeruns really is:

As for other active catchers with a shot at 300, Jorge Posada sits at 226, Jason Varitek at 166, Ramon Hernandez at 138, Bengie Molina at 127, and A.J. Pierzynski at 102. That’s it for catchers over 100. Victor Martinez is the only catcher aged 30 or younger with 90, and the next youngest is Miguel Olio at 76. Brian McCann has 73 and he’s only 25, John Buck has 65 and is 28, Mike Napoli has 52 at age 27, and Joe Mauer has 50 at age 26.

Of course, the wild card in this could be a few weeks away, when Matt Wieters eventually arrives, but a question for discussion: which of the catchers is most likely to hit 300 homeruns? Or will any of them actually stick at catcher long enough to accomplish the feat as a catcher?

2008 Draft Slot: 74th overall (Second round)
Top Pick: Tyler Chatwood, RHP, California high school
Best Pick: Tyler Chatwood
Keep an Eye On: Michael Kohn, RHP, College of Charleston (13th round)
Notes: Michael Kohn has posted excellent pro numbers as a reliever and he has the stuff to succeed: A mid-90s fastball and potentially plus breaking ball. He’s allowed just seven hits and five walks in 17.1 innings so far this season in low A-ball. Tyler Chatwood has actually posted solid numbers even though he has no idea where the ball is going (2.85 ERA, 7.80 BB/9). Just imagine what he could do with some polish.

2007 Draft Slot: 58th overall (Supplemental first round)
Top Pick: Jonathan Bachanov, RHP, Florida high school
Best Pick: Trevor Reckling, LHP, New Jersey (Eighth round)
Worst Pick: Trevor Pippin, OF, Georgia junior college (Fourth round)
Notes: Prep right-hander Matt Harvey, considered a first-round talent who would be a difficult signing, fell to the Angels in the third round and would have been a great player to have. But he headed to the University of North Carolina instead. Top pick Jonathan Bachanov had Tommy John surgery and has yet to make an official pro appearance. Trevor Reckling has become the top pitcher in the system. The soon-to-be 20-year-old hurler is already dominating in double-A.

2006 Draft Slot: 25th overall
Top Pick: Hank Conger, C, California high school
Best Pick: Jordan Walden, RHP, Texas high school (12th round)
Worst Pick: Clay Fuller, OF, Texas high school (Fourth round)
Notes: With no second-round pick and unable to come to terms with its third-round pick, the Angels chose a raw prep outfielder in Clay Fuller and appear to have missed on him. He strikes out way too much and is hitting .220 while playing at high-A ball in his fourth pro season. If he can stay behind the plate (a big IF), Hank Conger could provide above-average offense for the position. The Angels were extremely lucky to find a pitcher of Jordan Walden’s caliber in the 12th round, although he is currently injured.

2009 Draft Slot: 24th overall
Draft Preference (2006-08): Prep hitters and pitchers
MLB Club Need: Starting pitching, Third base, First base
Organizational Need: Outfield, Third base, Second base, Left-handed pitching
Organizational Strength: Shortstop? Maybe catcher??
Notes: The amateur draft has not been an area of strength in recent years for the organization. The club has thumbed its nose at the draft while preferring to build a winning organization through free agency and trades. The club, though, is running out of tradable commodities. Despite losing its 2009 first round pick (32nd overall) for signing reliever Brian Fuentes, the club actually gained two higher picks (24th, 25th) after losing free agents RHP Francisco Rodriguez and 1B Mark Teixeira. The club also has three supplemental first round picks, so now is the time to rebuild the farm system.

Yesterday, Brewers top hitting prospect Mat Gamel made his season debut as a pinch hitter. Milwaukee summoned him from Triple-A, where he was tearing the cover off the ball, hitting .336/.428/.647 with 20 extra base hits in 145 plate appearances. As a 23-year-old with serious thump in his bat, the Brewers realized that he had little left to learn in the Pacific Coast League, and have brought him up to help them contend for the NL Central title this year.

No one questions Gamel’s bat. Everyone questions his glove, however. His lack of range and stiff hands are a significant problem at third base, and even at first base, the reviews aren’t good. More than once, it’s been suggested that Gamel’s best position is probably designated hitter, which doesn’t exist in the National League. A significantly improved defense was one of the main keys to the Brewers run last year, and they are understandably cautious about weakening their defense by giving Gamel significant playing time.

However, they should give him a shot at third base against right handed pitchers. Bill Hall is having a nice rebound season from his miserable 2008 campaign, but he’s the quintessential platoon player. In 2007, he hit .247/.305/.408 against right-handers. Last year, that fell to .174/.242/.316. This year, he’s at .212/.316/.333. Hall can hit lefties (career .862 OPS versus southpaws), but he’s vulnerable against right-handed pitching.

The Brewers line-up has enough lefty mashers. Seven of their eight position players are right-handed, with only Prince Fielder swinging a lefty bat in their regular line-up. Gamel, even with his fielding issues, would offer a little bit more balance and give them a significant offensive upgrade at the hot corner against RHPs. Hall could still sub in as a defensive replacement and play against lefties, so the time share would be something along the lines of 70-30 in favor of Gamel.

His defense is bad, but the opportunity to get a real hitter against right-handed pitching in the line-up at third base is one the Brewers shouldn’t turn down.