2008 Draft Slot: 14th overall
Top Pick: Aaron Hicks, OF, California high school
Best Pick: Aaron Hicks
Keep an Eye On: Tyler Ladendorf, SS, Texas junior college (second round)
Notes: Tyler Ladendorf was drafted with the reputation of being an offensive-minded player who might not stick at shortstop. The 21 year old, though, struggled in his first taste of pro ball and is currently working in extended spring training. He’s someone to keep an eye on when short-season ball begins in June. Aaron Hicks surprised just about everyone when he hit .318 last season after signing, because he was supposed to be more raw offensively. The 28 walks in 178 at-bats (13.9 BB%) were also a nice bonus.

2007 Draft Slot: 28th overall
Top Pick: Ben Revere, OF, Kentucky high school
Best Pick: Ben Revere
Worst Pick: Danny Rams, C/1B, Florida high school
Notes: The 71 strikeouts in 149 at-bats last season in his second year in rookie ball do not bode well for Danny Rams’ future. Ben Revere was yet another smart first-round pick by the Twins… He has shown a lot more polish than expected and the consistent ability to hit .300 has been a surprise. At 5’9” Revere is not going to hit for power so he needs to keep playing ‘small ball.’ Puerto Rican outfielder Angel Morales is another toolsy pick with massive power potential but huge strikeout totals.

2006 Draft Slot: 20th overall
Top Pick: Chris Parmalee, OF/1B, California high school
Best Pick: Danny Valencia, 3B, University of Miami (19th round)
Worst Pick: Garrett Olson, 3B, Franklin Pierce College (Fourth round)
Notes: This was the last of a string of disappointing first-round draft picks (three out of four years from 2003-06, minus Matt Garza in ’05) by the Twins. Chris Parmalee has struggled to hit more than .240 in the past three seasons. He’s only 21, though, so he has time to improve. Danny Valencia, whose contract demands caused him to slip a bit in the draft, has exceeded expectations with a .303 pro average.

2009 Draft Slot: 22nd overall
Draft Preference (2006-08): High school athletes, college pitchers
MLB Club Need: Shortstop, Second base, Third base
Organizational Need: First base, Second base, Shortstop
Organizational Strength: Right-handed pitchers, Outfield
Notes: If there is one thing we can say for certain, it’s that the Twins organization loves to draft raw, toolsy, prep players. There is no reason to expect this to change. The club is also very smart when it comes to drafting ‘second-tier’ college pitchers who end up having a fair bit of success in pro ball. The Twins get a supplemental first round pick after losing reliever Dennys Reyes to free agency.

Baseball is starting to sort itself out. The Marlins and Mariners have fallen apart after their hot starts to the season, the Angels are surging back towards the top of the American League West, and the Mets are riding Johan Santana and Carlos Beltran to victory. The standings still don’t look exactly like most people thought they would, but we’re starting to see some results that fit into preseason expectations. There were still things to learn last week, however.

Jayson Werth really wants to be taken seriously.

Despite posting a +5.3 win season last year, Werth is still considered a complementary player in Philadelphia. He’s overshadowed by Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Cole Hamels, and new acquisition Raul Ibanez stole the spotlight the first few weeks with his Ruthian start to his Phillies career. However, Werth demanded some attention this week, launching four home runs and reminding everyone that he can still swing the stick. Despite expectations for a regression, Werth is on a +6 win pace for the 2009 season. At some point, the baseball world is just going to have to admit that he’s a terrific player.

Miguel Tejada can still hit the ball over the fence.

Tejada didn’t have quite as good a week as Werth did, but two home runs in a four day span for Miggy is cause for celebration in Houston. Tejada had gone 180 plate appearances without a home run, dating back to last September, before he deposited one over the fence on Thursday. The power surge pushed his seasonal wOBA line up to .336, and Houston has to hope there’s more of this to come. There are several teams that could be in the market for shortstops this summer, and Tejada’s contract finally expires at the end of the season. If he can pull a few more fastballs, Houston might be able to ship him off somewhere else before the season ends.

Carlos Pena idolizes Rob Deer.

Pena’s having a big season with the bat so far, posting a league leading 13 home runs and a .414 wOBA for the Rays. If you’re a fan of the Three True Outcomes, you’d have loved Pena last week. He stepped to the plate 28 times, and 20 of them ended with a walk (five), strikeout (13), or home run (two). Eight balls in play for the whole week. Not one single. Pena is trying to chase down Jack Cust and Russ Branyan for the title of most TTO hitter in the game.

Yuniesky Betancourt knows how to take a pitch.

Mariner fans have been tearing their hair out watching Betancourt hit this year, as his hacktasticness continually kills rallies and lets pitchers off the hook without even trying. He’s swinging at 43.9% of pitches out of the strike zone this year. His approach at the plate is just miserable. So, you can imagine the amazement when Betancourt drew two walks last week – the first two he’d drawn all season. One of them even came off Royals all-star closer Joakim Soria, in the 9th inning of a close game no less. It has not yet been confirmed that Soria’s subsequent stint on the disabled list was due to embarrassment caused from the event.

Zack Greinke is good.

Just in case you weren’t sure. Two starts, two complete games, zero walks, 15 strikeouts. He still hasn’t allowed a home run this year. In seven starts, he’s been worth +2.9 wins to the Royals. This is just ridiculous.

The Reds outfield defense is pretty good.

Jay Bruce is the new UZR king with 9 and Willy Taveras is at 5.1 runs. That gives the Reds two centerfielders at all times, no matter who mans left field. The Reds don’t have many flyball heavy pitchers, but the staff as a whole are outperforming their FIP by 0.41 runs. Contribute a large part of that 3.93 staff ERA to a .289 batting average on balls in play against, which is tied for the fifth lowest in the league. For what it’s worth, fellow outfielders Jerry Hairston, Laynce Nix, and Chris Dickerson also rate as above average corner outfielders thus far, although not nearly to the extent of Bruce.

The left side of the Rays infield is the best in the league.

Evan Longoria ranks third individually with 7.4 runs and Jason Bartlett isn’t too far behind with 3.1 runs. Longoria rates as the best third baseman, a run better than Ryan Zimmerman, and Bartlett as the second best shortstop, behind Marco Scutaro. It’s also worth noting the Rays still maintain the best defense in the league, and now it’s not even close, 23.7 runs compared to the second place Brewers 11.6 runs.

From best to worst…

The White Sox, Dodgers, Nationals, and Red Sox make up the bottom of the league. I’m just as surprised as you to see the Red Sox ranking low. So far Jason Bay (-8.2, the lowest in the majors amongst qualified players), Julio Lugo (-2.4), Mike Lowell (-2.3), and J.D. Drew (-2.2) are killing them. The team leader is Kevin Youkilis at 1.4 runs. As for the Dodgers, Orlando Hudson and Andre Ethier are sinking them. You hate to make assumptions based on these small of sample sizes for defense, but if it holds up over the long haul then it’s time to proclaim Hudson’s run as an excellent defender over.

Thanks in large part to a very entertaining season so far, choosing which game to highlight each week proves to be quite difficult. Once again, the slate of games on the docket this past week was comprised of some absolute gems, some thrillers, and another position player finding his way onto the mound. Though a few others could give our winner a run for its money, the top game last week saw the Angels and Royals square off on Saturday in the best pitching duel this season.

The Angels bested the Royals, 1-0, behind a strong Joe Saunders outing, beating up on Zack Greinke in the process. Seriously… his ERA entered at 0.40 and left at an uglier 0.51.

While complete games are rare these days, both Saunders and Greinke went the distance in this instant classic. Greinke has now completed four of his seven starts, not necessarily reminiscent of Warren Spahn or Robin Roberts, but still pretty incredible in the present context. Greinke has also been the deserving recipient of an ample supply of attention this season for his absolutely dominant efforts. After “losing” on Saturday, Greinke’s statline looks like this: 7 GS (4 CG/2 SHO), 53.0 IP, 34 H, 0 HR, 8 BB, 59 K, 0.51 ERA, 1.46 FIP.

His counterpart on Saturday has also been doing well albeit with much less attention. Last season, Saunders broke out with a solid campaign; however, he also became the consensus pick for the pitcher with a good 2008 season that will regress pretty significantly the next year. After all, sub-5.0 strikeout rates are generally not that appealing unless the pitcher induces groundballs with the greatest of ease and posts Maddux-esque walk rates. Saunders issued around 2.4 walks per nine last season but he did record grounders on 47% of his balls in play. His +2.8 wins pegged him as a good, but not-as-great-as-a-3.41-ERA-in-31-starts-suggests pitcher.

Following his shutout on Saturday, Saunders has a 2.66 ERA and 4.23 FIP in 47.1 innings of work. His strikeout rate remains unworthy of boasting, but the BB/9 has dropped a bit. At right around +1 win this season, Saunders is once again looking good. Despite a large disconnect in his ERA and FIP, perhaps portending that teams are going to figure him out sooner of later, the Royals looked hopeless on Saturday, much like other teams look when facing Greinke.

The lone run of the game occurred in the bottom of the third on some small ball courtesy of the Scioscia-bunch. Gary Matthews Jr led the inning off with a double. Erick Aybar sacrificed him over to third. Chone Figgins hit a sac fly to rightfield. No other runs would cross the plate though not for a lack of trying as several of the runners who did manage to reach base in this game found themselves in scoring position.

In the top of the fifth, Saunders walked Billy Butler and allowed a single to Alberto Callaspo to start the frame. Runners on first and second, nobody out, and Saunders escaped unharmed thanks to three straight outs at the expenses of Willie Bloomquist, Miguel Olivo and Mike Aviles.

In the bottom of the sixth, Aybar doubled and moved to third two batters later when Maicer Izturis grounded out. The power-sapped Bobby Abreu couldn’t drive him home, though, ending the inning with the 1-0 score in tact.

Erick Aybar made an errant throw on a Bloomquist-grounder to start the top of the eighth, allowing Willie to reach base. Miguel Olivo then singled, moving Bloomquist up to second. Aviles sacrificed both runners into scoring position, leaving Saunders with one out and runners at second and third. Coco Crisp then grounded into a fielder’s choice, with Olivo being retired at third base and Bloomquist moving up to take over that same spot. Now with runners on the corners and two outs, a 4.38 Leverage Index, Saunders got David DeJesus to groundout to third.

The remaining two half-innings went by quickly, with each pitcher retiring the three batters they faced. Four of those struck out and Billy Butler flied out to center to end the game. Two complete games, nine total hits, one total walk, and nine strikeouts. Best duel of the season so far and last week’s top game.

Daily updated in season projections of the ZiPS variety are now available in all the player pages!

There are two lines, the RoS line which is what a player is projected to do in only the remaining part of the season and then the Total line which is what a player’s total season stats are projected to be at the end of the season.

All the credit goes to Dan Szymborski of Baseball Think Factory for letting me implement his projection system! And a hat-tip to Dave Cameron for pointing me in the direction of his in-season projection tool! If you want to mess around with in season projections yourself, you should download his spreadsheet here: 2009 ZiPS In-Season Projection Tool

In other news, we’ve hidden all the pre-season projections by default but you can still click on the show projection button to check them out. If they’re not hidden by default, just hit the refresh button on your browser or hit F5.

Odds are, you know Evan Longoria is pretty good. He’s just 23, but he’s already made his mark on the American League with a stellar rookie season, and he’s followed it up with a strong start to the 2009 season. It wouldn’t be that controversial to call Longoria the best young player in the American League.

I’m here to say we can take the word young out of the previous sentence. Evan Longoria is the best player in the American League. He’s not that far behind Albert Pujols for the title of best player in baseball.

So far, Longoria has racked up 637 major league plate appearances, basically one full season’s worth. His career line – .291/.356/.574, good for a .395 wOBA. His power has developed earlier than anyone expected, making him one of the premier sluggers in baseball. He covers the plate, drives the ball to all fields, works the count, and crushes mistakes. The list of players who have hit this well at this early stage of their careers is littered with Hall Of Fame talents.

If that wasn’t enough, Longoria might just be the best defensive third baseman in the game. He posted a UZR of +14.9 in 119 games last year, he stood at +4.5 through the most recent update last Sunday. His career UZR/150 stands at +20.5, thanks to his excellent footwork and reactions, which allow him to swallow up nearly every ball hit within shouting distance of third base. He was praised more for his glove than his bat coming out of college, so this kind of defensive excellence isn’t a surprise. He really could play shortstop, and probably be above average there.

Add up the total package, and in 151 major league games, Longoria has been worth +7.8 wins to the Rays. In what amounts to one season’s worth of playing time, Longoria has performed at a +8 win level that is rarefied territory. Our win value data goes back to 2002, and in the 7+ years of data that we have here on the site, Pujols and Alex Rodriguez have a massive lead over everyone else. Pujols has +56.7 wins, while Rodriguez has +55.2 wins. On a per year basis, those totals work out to just about +8 wins per year.

Longoria, in his first season’s worth of major league performance, as a 22 and 23 year old playing in the toughest division in baseball, has performed at a level essentially equal to what Pujols and Rodriguez have sustained for most of the decade. His rookie “season” was the equal of most MVP seasons.

This kid is sick.

Last night, I felt compelled to write a brief post discussing the drastic woes of the Philadelphia Phillies pitching staff. None of their five starters had an ERA below 5.35 and the triumvirate of Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, and Joe Blanton had surrendered more home runs between them than just about half of the teams in the entire sport. In spite of these horrendous numbers, the Phillies still occupy first place in the NL East. The kneejerk reaction to this combination is to suggest that either the starters will regress or else the team will not make the playoffs.

Curious, I posed a question at the end of the post wondering if anyone could recall similarly poor numbers from a starting rotation that went onto win the division or the wild card berth. The teams brought up in the comments thread were the 1999 Texas Rangers and the 2000 Chicago White Sox. Frequent commenter Kincaid compiled the numbers showing that six Rangers starters with a minimum of 15 starts ranged from 4.56 to 8.60 in the ERA department. The six White Sox starters with a minimum of 13 starts ranged from a 3.79 ERA to one of 6.46, not quite as bad.

The issue with looking solely at the numbers of the individuals is that we are using the current context to look at past numbers. Last season, the NL averaged a 4.30 ERA with the AL not too far behind at 4.36. Certainly, the teams discussed above look awful when placed in the context of the 2008 season, but that is the wrong context. We need to compare these teams and players to the year in which they made the playoffs.

In 1999, the AL ERA sat at 4.87, about a half-run worse than last season. The next season it slightly rose to 4.92. Therefore, when Rick Helling and Aaron Sele posted ERAs of 4.84 and 4.79, respectively, in 1999, they were essentially average at worst.

With this idea in mind, I linked together my Lahman and Retrosheet databases in order to do the following:

a) Calculate AVG ERA for each league in each year
b) Create a table with all starters making at least 12 starts in a season on a team that either won the division or the wild card
c) Compare the ERAs of each individual in each rotation to the league average in that specific season
d) Pool all of those with ERAs at least 0.10 runs worse than the average into a new table

I then told the database to count the number of pitchers for each team and year and sort by the highest number. Since 1969, there have been 170 teams to make the playoffs with at least one pitcher fitting the above criteria. The 170 teams broke down like this:

1 Pitcher: 76
2 Pitcher: 59
3 Pitcher: 26
4 Pitcher: 8
5 Pitcher: 1

One team over the last 40 seasons to make the playoffs featured five starting pitchers with below average ERA marks: the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals, who went onto win the World Series! Now, the numbers here are not entirely perfect in the sense that only one of these pitchers, Jason Marquis, made more than 17 starts. The other pitchers here–Mark Mulder, Sidney Ponson, Jeff Weaver (in his StL stint), and Anthony Reyes–all made 17 or fewer starts.

On top of that, it isn’t as if these five were the concrete rotation of the team entering the post-season. Still, it is incredibly interesting that a team was able to win the world series, let alone make the playoffs, when 96 of their 162 games were started by pitchers with below average numbers.

The teams with four pitchers were:

1975 Boston Red Sox
1977 Philadelphia Phillies
1980 Philadelphia Phillies
1981 Milwaukee Brewers
1995 Colorado Rockies
1998 Chicago Cubs
1998 Texas Rangers
2002 Minnesota Twins

Pitching is certainly important, but as this data shows, including two championship winning teams (2006 Cardinals, 1980 Phillies), teams can certainly get away with employing below average starters some of the time.

2008 Draft Slot: Third overall
Top Pick: Eric Hosmer, 1B, Florida high school
Best Pick: Eric Hosmer
Keep an Eye On: Tim Melville, RHP, Missouri high school (Fourth round)
Notes: Tim Melville has yet to appear in a pro game but the fourth-round pick from last year had first-round talent and teams were scared off by his murky signability. The Royals organization spent a lot of money on this draft and it could end up with a lot to show for it, as supplemental first round pick Mike Montgomery had a dazzling debut in 2008 but the team is being cautious with the prep pick and he will open 2009 in short-season ball. First baseman Eric Hosmer has had a bit of a slow start this season but he should be an absolute offensive beast.

2007 Draft Slot: Second overall
Top Pick: Mike Moustakas, SS/3B, California high school
Best Pick: Mike Moustakas
Worst Pick: Sam Runion, RHP, North Carolina high school (Second round)
Notes: Sam Runion, now in his third season, has a career 5.38 ERA, and his FIP is not much better. Fellow prep pick Dan Duffy, selected in the third round, has a chance to make up for that pick, though. Mike Moustakas looks like a solid choice with the second overall pick, although Matt Wieters (Fifth overall, Baltimore) and Madison Bumgarner (10th, San Francisco) look pretty good too, in retrospect.

2006 Draft Slot: First overall
Top Pick: Luke Hochevar, RHP, Independent baseball
Best Pick: Luke Hochevar
Worst Pick: Jason Taylor, IF, Virginia high school (second round)
Notes: Jason Taylor has been a frustrating pick. Even though he has flashed some real talent, the former second-round pick missed all of 2007 for disciplinary reasons and he has yet to appear in a game this season. Luke Hochevar has made it to the Majors, but he certainly hasn’t been the staff ace that you would be hoping for from a No. 1 overall selection.

2009 Draft Slot: 12th overall
Draft Preference (2006-08): Best overall player, and the club has invested heavily in prep players the last two years.
MLB Club Need: Pitching, Shortstop, Third base, Catcher
Organizational Need: Corner outfield, Shortstop, Left-handed pitching
Organizational Strength: Right-handed pitching, Center field, First base
Notes: For the first time in quite a few years, the Royals organization will not have one of the top five picks, so it will be interesting to see what approach is taken – and how good of a pick the club can make.

We’ve added Bill James’ Speed Score to the player pages, leaderboards, and team pages.

We’re using the 4 component version, which is an average of Stolen Base Percentage, Frequency of Stolen Base Attempts, Percentage of Triples, and Runs Scored Percentage.

Well, that didn’t take long. Despite the flukiest hot start baseball has seen since Tuffy Rhodes, it looks like the Emilio Bonifacio era may be coming to an end in Florida. The Marlins have recalled top prospect Chris Coghlan from Triple-A, where he was hitting .348/.425/.565 with a 12/10 BB/K ratio to go along with 12 extra base hits. The power was the nice surprise so far, as no one questions his ability to handle the bat and control the strike zone. He’s not the greatest athlete in the world, but he’s a baseball player. He’s essentially the anti-Bonifacio.

Early reports say Coghlan will see time in both the outfield and at second base (his natural position), giving the team a chance to give the slumping Dan Uggla a day or two off. However, there’s just no reason to keep a scrub like Bonifacio on the field when you have a talent like Coghlan ready to play everyday. He’s played 42 games at third base in the minors, including 11 there this season.

Thanks to their 11-1 start, the Marlins are still semi-competitive in the NL East despite the fact that their offense has fallen apart. Hanley Ramirez could use some help, and Coghlan is the kind of player who could give the team some legitimate offense from a position where that is sorely lacking. There’s just no reason why Coghlan shouldn’t get the majority of playing time at the hot corner. Even if the Marlins fall out of the race, Coghlan is a part of their future, while Bonifacio is not.

How he distributes the playing time at third base will be something of a litmus test for manager Fredi Gonzalez. The sooner he puts Bonifacio on the bench the better, and hopefully it’s permanent this time.