Archive for June, 2009

Minor League Game Logs

Since it’s draft day and all, I thought it’d be appropriate to upgrade our minor league offerings so you can keep better track of how your favorite prospects are coming along.

Minor league players now have game logs. Now you can see just how many strikeouts Tommy Hanson had in each game, opposed to just knowing he struck out 90 batters in 66 innings while in AAA.

All the minor league game logs are interspersed in chronological order giving you a very complete view of how a pitcher did that year, even if he bounced around from the majors to the minors.


The AL Rookie of the Year

My, how time flies. It’s already June and the 2009 MLB Amateur Draft takes place today, which will cause an (exciting) influx of talent into the sport. But there are already some pretty gifted, young players in Major League Baseball. A number of those players are currently vying for the American League Rookie of the Year award. If you sift through all the names, two players float to the surface: Texas’ Elvis Andrus and Detroit’s Rick Porcello.

When the season began, there weren’t many people (outside of Texas and Detroit) that thought these two players would be in the thick of the Rookie of the Year race at this point of the season. It’s not that these two players aren’t talented – they are, and have been at the top of their organizations’ prospect charts (Andrus was signed by Atlanta and traded to Texas) since they signed as amateurs – but they are the youngest players in the Majors at the age of 20. As well, Porcello was just drafted out of high school in 2007 and, after signing too late to play that year, he spent just one year in the minors, which is virtually unheard of for a prep prospect.

So, to this point, which player deserves the Rookie of the Year award? One of the most exciting things about comparing these two players is the fact that both 20-year-old rookies are playing for first-place clubs, so they’re both contributing to a winning team. The biggest difference between the two players is that Andrus is a position player (shortstop), while Porcello is a starting pitching. Andrus likely gets the immediate edge because he impacts his club everyday, while Porcello takes to the mound once every five days. Unfair, perhaps, but a valid point nonetheless.

Elvis Andrus

Currently, Andrus is hitting a solid .276/.330/.405 with three home runs and nine stolen bases in 12 attempts. In 49 games (163 at-bats), the Venezuelan shortstop has plate rates of 6.3 BB% and 13.% K%. Obviously, he’s a bit of a free swinger with a low walk rate, but his strikeout rate shows that he makes good contact. His line-drive rate of almost 20% shows that he’s not just flicking his bat at the ball to make contact with non-strikes; He’s hitting the ball with some authority.

As well, Andrus is playing to his strengths with a ground-ball rate of 57.2%. He’s not a power hitter, so he’s putting the ball on the ground (or on the line) and good things have been happening. Another encouraging number is the BABIP rate of .304. He hasn’t been very lucky with his balls in play, so we can expect a few more to drop in over the course of the season, which could increase his batting average even more.

We also, of course, need to discuss Andrus’ defense because, well, that’s the main reason he’s in the Majors. The gifted fielder has already received some consideration for a Gold Glove. His fielding percentage is a little below the league norm, but that can be blamed somewhat on the fact that Andrus gets to a lot more balls than the average fielder. His RF/g (range factor per game) is 5.16, compared to the league average of 3.94. Obviously, Andrus is impacting the club with his glove just as much as with his bat, if not more.

Rick Porcello

Porcello, on the other hand, had a bit of a slow start to the year and lost three of his first four decisions (Like it or not, win totals seems to be a popular category amongst RoY voters). However, the young hurler then went on a tear in May and won all five of his starts. In those five starts, the New Jersey native allowed just five runs in total.

Overall, in 11 starts on the season, Porcello has a 3.98 ERA, but his FIP is 5.10 which suggests he’s been getting a lot of help from his fielders. That’s not surprising considering that he’s a ground-ball pitcher who lives and dies by his defense. The right-hander has a ground-ball rate of 55.4%. However, when batters get the ball in the air against Porcello, they usually hit it hard and he’s already allowed 10 home runs (17.1 HR/FB) while pitching in a spacious home ballpark.

Despite putting a lot of balls in play (His strikeout rate is just 5.31 K/9), Porcello has allowed just 59 hits in 61 innings of work. For such a young pitcher, he controls the strike zone very well and he’s walked just 20 batters (2.95 BB/9). He is struggling a bit in the splits column. Porcello has handled right-handed batters very well (.186 batting average) but he’s allowed a line of .300/.362/.500 to left-handed batters. An improved changeup (which he uses just 9.3% of the time) might help to combat those troublesome match-ups.

The Conclusion

At this point, my feeling would be that Andrus deserves the Rookie of the Year award a little more than Porcello, who is showing that there is still some work to be done when you look at his FIP and HR/FB rate. As for those actually voting on the award, they will likely be attracted to Andrus’ flashy play and the fact that Texas has improved significantly over last year – in no small part because of Andrus’ defense, which has allowed the Rangers’ pitchers to put balls in play with confidence.

Regardless of who is deserving of the award, both teams should be incredibly excited for the future. Both rookies are building solid foundations for what should be excellent MLB careers.


The Case For Dustin Ackley

Just a quick programming note – I’ll be live-blogging the draft here on the site tonight, beginning at 5:45 pm. Feel free to come join us for live reactions to the draft as it takes place.

Today is draft day, or as it’s known in D.C., Stephen Strasburg Day. As a reward for their lousiness last year, Washington has been granted the right to call out Strasburg’s name tonight with the first overall pick, and then spend the next few months trying to get him signed. There’s never been a consensus number one pick in the draft like there is this year. Everyone, and I mean everyone, agrees that Strasburg should go number one tonight.

Well, maybe not everyone. I think there’s a not-too-ridiculous case to be made that the Nationals should draft Dustin Ackley instead.

There’s no doubt that Strasburg is an elite talent. His stuff is better than any college pitcher we’ve ever seen, routinely hitting 100 MPH with his fastball and blowing hitters away with a hard breaking ball. Unlike most other kids who can throw hard at age 20, Strasburg actually knows where the ball is going. His ability to throw strikes with that kind of stuff is remarkable. The performances match the reports – 19 walks and 195 strikeouts in 109 innings this year, putting even Mark Prior to shame.

No one doubts the potential. It’s very easy to see a scenario where Strasburg is the best pitcher in baseball in a couple of years. Unfortunately, it’s also very easy to see a scenario where any number of factors (injuries, diminished velocity, mental breakdown, bad lifestyle choices, failure to learn how to pitch) cause him to fall short of his ultimate upside. He could be great, or he could end up as the next Dwight Gooden, Rick Ankiel, or Kerry Wood. It’s not just a binomial star-or-bust situation either – Felix Hernandez was destroying major league hitters with similar stuff at age 19, but hasn’t progressed as a pitcher, and is now having to adjust to having a fastball that averages 94 rather than 96.

In reality, history tells us there’s something like a 20% chance that Strasburg becomes what everyone hopes he can be. There’s also around a 20% chance that he gets knocked down hard early in his career, whether it be for health or mental reasons, and fails to get back up. That leaves the 60% middle ground, where he becomes a good, maybe great pitcher, but doesn’t live up to the best of all time hype. Or, if we translate those odds into Wins Above Replacement over the six first six years of his career, it would look something like this.

30-40 WAR: 25%
21-30 WAR: 25%
11-20 WAR: 25%
0-10 WAR: 25%

We’re giving him a one in four chance of becoming Randy Johnson, a one in four chance of becoming Jake Peavy, a one in four chance of becoming Kerry Wood, and a one in four chance of becoming Rick Ankiel. You can quibble the percentages a bit if you want, but not enough to move the conclusionary needle. The total expected WAR over six years of that package of probabilities, is +20. If you really think that Strasburg is different than all the previous phenoms, you could maybe push the probabilities to where the conclusion was +25. That’s about your limit, though. If the Nationals are expecting Strasburg to add more than 25 wins to their franchise before he becomes eligible for free agency, they’re probably headed for a disappointment.

So, all that said, let’s bring this back to Dustin Ackley. He doesn’t have anything like Strasburg’s upside. He’s a high average gap power hitter who has spent most of his time playing first base because his arm strength hasn’t returned after Tommy John surgery last summer. He’s athletic enough to play the outfield, but he doesn’t have much experience there, so the projections of him being an asset in center field are based on hope more than observation. The scouting report isn’t nearly as sexy.

However, the track record of established, premium college hitters is a terrific one. Unlike with the pitchers, you have to really look to find guys who were the best hitter in their class coming out of college and failed to do anything in the majors. For guys who just totally flopped, there’s David McCarty and Travis Lee, and that’s about it. Alex Gordon hasn’t hit as expected yet, so maybe he’s on his way to joining them. But the list of total premium college bats who have been total busts is very short.

Just to put this in comparison, Darin Erstad, who fell apart early in his career and was considered a less than elite #1 pick when he was drafted anyway, was worth 25.8 wins to the Angels from 1996 to 2002. A lot of people would consider Erstad’s career a disappointment, given how poorly he’s hit in his 30s, and his first six years were comparable in value to six years of pitching from a guy like Peavy or Josh Beckett.

Those are just the low-end guys. The high end is littered with players like Frank Thomas, Todd Helton, Mark Teixeira, Evan Longoria, and now Matt Wieters. No one thinks Ackley is as good as those guys, but even if you slice 20 percent of the upper end value off of those guys to reflect the power difference, you’re still talking about a premium upside. Let’s do the same probability breakdown for Ackley that we did for Strasburg.

31-40 WAR: 10%
21-30 WAR: 40%
11-20 WAR: 40%
0-10 WAR: 10%

With reduced potential but also reduced risk, we’re giving Ackley something like a 10% chance of being Todd Helton, a 40% chance of being Darin Erstad, a 40% chance of being J.D. Drew, and a 10% chance of being Travis Lee. The more certain, less volatile projection here has the exact same expected value as the one we listed for Strasburg above.

Again, you can quibble with the numbers if you want, but not that much. I think there’s room to argue that Ackley is as low as a +15 WAR and Strasburg is as high as a +25 WAR guy over their first six years. If you’re completely convinced that Ackley’s arm will limit him to left field and he won’t develop much power, and you’re convinced that Strasburg is significantly better than Prior/Wood/Hernandez were at similar stages of development, the difference in upsides would tip the scales in Strasburg’s favor by a comfortable margin.

However, I think it’s closer than most people think. Ackley’s significantly reduced risk makes up for a good chunk of the potential gap. When you toss in the cost differences (Strasburg is probably going to sign for $15 million more than Ackley), the gap closes even more. The present win value of $15 million in cash is something like three to four wins. If you have Strasburg as a +22 win guy and Ackley as a +18 win guy, then the cost difference essentially makes it a wash.

Even at the extremes, where Strasburg is +25 and Ackley is +15, the signing bonus requirements push it to within a reasonable gap of just 6-7 wins over six years.

Strasburg’s going number one, but I think there’s a pretty strong chance that we’ll look back in six years and realize that picking Dustin Ackley wouldn’t have been such a bad idea after all.


Where Did This Come From?

In the early part of this decade, Cristian Guzman was known more for his inclusion in the Chuck Knoblauch trade than anything else. Debuting as a 21-yr old in 1999 and throughout his sophomore season, Guzman rarely walked, struck out too often especially relative to the walks, and thus fell well below average in the wOBA department.

In 2001, however, everything seemed to come together as Guzman put up a .302/.337/.477 line, good for a .352 wOBA and 11 batting runs above average. His success would be short lived as the next very season saw a severe regression, with Guzman producing a paltry .287 wOBA, 23 runs below average. His +2.5 UZR and playing time certainly helped, but this was definitely a massive step back.

From 2003-05, things stayed particularly stagnant, with Guzman putting up wOBAs of .297, .300, and .247. His defense hovered around the league average mark, deviating each season, making it difficult to peg down his talent level. It seems safe to assume he was playing league average or slightly worse defense, though, based on the all data we have.

Guzman then missed the entire 2006 season with injuries, and upon returning, looks like a completely different player. It is really confusing, because his offensive surge came out of nowhere. Sure, he only played 46 games in 2007, and has only taken part in 42 more this season, sandwiching the 138 games last season, but he does seem to have established a new talent level on offense.

The walks are still absent but Guzman is whiffing a lot less often, and has apparently started hitting the ball harder and where the defense is not positioned. After several seasons of BABIPs around the .280-.305 range, Guzman has been at .364, .339, .374 since returning in 2007. Because of this massive uptick, his wOBA marks have settled around the .340 range. No, it isn’t necessarily lighting the world on fire, but he has transformed into a legitimate threat in a lineup, as opposed to the kind of hitter that fans feel confident their pitcher can easily retire.

The biggest change can be found in his production against fastballs. From 2002-05, Guzman averaged around 15 runs below average against heaters. Since his return: +5.6, +17.0, +3.6, and keep in mind that the sandwiching seasons have only comprised about one-third of a full year. His defense negates some of the offensive value, but Guzman is almost unrecognizable from his pre-injury self, save for the lack of patience.

I’m not sure what happened between 2005 and 2007, or if Guzman had been hurt for quite some time before missing the entire 2006 season, but he is certainly serving as an example of a player whose past results really do not help all that much given the missed time, the injury, and the apparent newly found abilities. Anyone have any other ideas as to how this offensive turnaround occurred?


Pitchers and Hitting

In 25 plate appearances, Jamie Moyer has more walks (6) than some regular positional players. In fact, Moyer’s .348 on-base percentage is impressive when his .067 batting average is taken into account. As you can guess, Moyer leads all pitchers with at least 20 plate appearances in bases on balls. Bengie Molina, Cristian Guzman, Miguel Tejada, Marlon Byrd, and Jeff Francour are within two walks of Moyer’s range. Congratulations guys, a 40-something-year old pitcher is doing a better job at drawing a walk than you are.

Some other tidbits from when pitchers hit…

Livan Hernandez has struck out the lowest percentage amount of any pitcher. Mike Pelfrey has the second lowest percentage. I guess the Mets preach contact to their pitchers. Paul Maholm is striking out 63% of the time. Josh Johnson and Moyer are the other two pitchers with more than 60% strikeouts.

Carlos Zambrano has the highest ISO at .529, Micah Owings isn’t too far behind at .242, and Yovani Gollardo is the only other pitcher over .150. I guess the National League Central has a penchant for finding pitchers with capable hitting abilities. Tons of pitchers have only singles to their credit this season.

The absolute worst hitting pitchers, as measured by wRAA: Wandy Rodriguez (-6.5), Randy Wolf (-6.1), and Ryan Dempster (-5.5). Meanwhile, only three pitchers have positive wRAA: Micha Owings (0.4), Carlos Zambrano (0.3), and Mike Hampton (0.3).

The Marlins have the worst hitting staff in the NL while the D-Backs and Phillies have the best – I guess they have to do something to make up for the poor starting. Click here to view a png of the rest of the NL’s placement as of last night.


Welcome to HIT f/x

You might have already seen the announcement or come across some of the articles, but HIT f/x data is starting to make an appearance. It is partially available to those of us who attended last year’s PITCH f/x conference in San Francisco. The age of HIT f/x is going to usher in a whole new slew of advancement in evaluation metrics so expect the next year or so to see just as much, and likely more, change in the sabr crowd as the past has seen with the widespread adoption of PITCH f/x.

That being said, the data that we have available to us now does not cover that much time. The sample is only that of April 2009 which presents a small sample size issue. Also giving that we do not have retro data from 2008, it is impossible to do the sort of comparison analysis that I bet many of us are interested in.

Still, it is something and it is neat. So let us work with what we do have instead of dwelling on what we do not yet. Here, then as a quick taste, are the initial speeds off the bat for teams over the month of April.

TEX 85.1
CLE 83.5
TOR 83.4
BAL 82.5
BOS 82.2
MIL 82.2
COL 82.2
ARI 81.8
WAS 81.8
ANA 81.7
LAN 81.7
PHI 81.5
DET 81.2
NYA 80.9
MIN 80.7
SFN 80.7
CHA 80.4
TBA 80.4
KCA 80.2
SLN 80.1
FLO 80.0
CHN 79.8
SDN 79.6
PIT 79.5
OAK 79.4
SEA 79.0
HOU 78.9
ATL 78.4
CIN 77.6
NYN 77.4

As you might suspect, this tracks extremely well with a team’s overall wOBA. National League teams are going to get dragged down a bit because of pitchers hitting, so a straight comparison across leagues is not really fair. Also, I suspect that the spreads between good and bad hitting teams are further exacerbated by the worst hitting teams bunting more often.

That is all for now, but rest assured, much more to come.


What We Learned In Week Nine

We’re past the one-third marker of the season, and this season continues to be an interesting one. The Dodgers just won’t lose, the Rangers haven’t gone away, and the AL East looks like the best division of all time. What did we learn last week?

Zack Greinke is human.

For his first 11 starts of the season, Greinke’s numbers looked like something out of a video game set to easy mode. He was just toying with hitters, and every game was a potential shutout. Finally, for the first time this year, he looked human this week, giving up five runs in five innings in a loss to the Blue Jays. Toronto took him deep twice, accounting for the only two home runs he’s given up this year. Have no fear, though – even after a bad start, his FIP stands at 1.81 for the year.

The A’s may finally have a rotation.

After cycling through pitchers all year, the young hurlers currently in the Oakland rotation want to stay put. Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Josh Outman, Dallas Braden, and Vin Mazzaro combined to throw 46 innings last week, giving up 35 hits and walking just seven batters while striking out 26 guys. They allowed just eight runs between them, for a nifty 1.56 runs allowed per nine innings. They obviously won’t keep pitching that well, but Oakland built their preseason hopes on a young pitching staff developing quickly, and they had to enjoy this week’s performance.

Jarrod Washburn continues to shine.

Early in the season, my buddy Jonah Keri wrote a piece claiming that Washburn might be this season’s Cliff Lee, pointing to a greatly improved outfield defense that would help him have a significantly better year than many expected. So far, he looks like a genius, as Washburn continued to roll last week and is having the best season of his career. After two more excellent starts, his season ERA stands at 3.07, and while he’s gotten help from Franklin Gutierrez, Ichiro Suzuki, and Endy Chavez, he’s also just pitching really well – his FIP stands at 3.39. He’s added a two-seam fastball that is destroying left-handers (LHBs are 11 for 78 with 3 walks and 26 strikeouts against him this year), and by dominating same-handed hitters, he’s doing a halfway-decent Cliff Lee impersonation.

The Royals offense is not good.

Take away Brayan Pena, who went 2 for 5, and the best wOBA the Royals got from one of their hitters last week was .273, courtesy of Miguel Olivo. .214/.214/.429 made him their hitting star. That’s rough. You name a Royals regular, and they haven’t hit much lately. Kansas City, as a team, posted a .225 wOBA last week. It’s no wonder they scored a whopping 13 runs while basically falling out of the AL Central race. Greinke gives them a reason for hope, but Dayton Moore has a lot of work to do fixing that group of position players.


Game of the Week: 6/1-6/7

I’m not sure if major league teams are purposely playing great games on Sunday or if it is nothing more than a coincidence, but our top game from this past week once again took place on the final day before the work week begins. For those that happened to miss it, the Padres and Diamondbacks engaged in an 18-inning affair yesterday that featured several unlikely events. The Diamondbacks would ultimately win by a score of 9-6, but how they got there is much more interesting. Observe the swings in win expectancy:
dbackspads
Dan Haren started for the DBacks, opposed by replacement level extraordinaire Josh Geer. Both pitchers started off strong, keeping the opposition scoreless for four frames. In the fifth, Geer walked Mark Reynolds and surrendered a double to Miguel Montero, placing two runners in scoring position with nobody out. Chris Young walked to load the bases, but didn’t stay put for very long, as Josh Whitesell quickly plated all three runners with a bases clearing double. Haren sacrificed Whitesell to third, and Felipe Lopez brought him in with a sacrifice fly. This would be the last inning for Geer, who left trailing 4-0.

With Haren on the mound, the game seemed to be in the bag. When the DBacks added two more runs in the sixth off of Joe Thatcher, increasing their lead to 6-0, against an offense like the Padres, the game seemed completely out of reach. In the bottom of the seventh, Kevin Kouzmanoff smacked a solo homer off of Haren, the only run the ace would allow. He departed after the frame, turning in another stellar start. Tony Pena pitched a scoreless eighth, meaning the Padres had but a 1.6% chance of winning the game as the bottom of the ninth rolled around.

Juan Gutierrez toed the rubber for the Diamondbacks and promptly gave up a double to Adrian Gonzalez. Chase Headley singled Gonzo in one batter later. 6-2, still no big deal. Brian Giles then walked (shocker) and Headley advanced to third on the subsequent Kouzmanoff flyout. One out, down four runs, runners on first and third, with Chad Qualls now in the game and the likes of Nick Hundley, Chris Burke, David Eckstein, and Tony Gwynn, Jr., due up.

Hundley singled in Headley, making the score 6-3 with just one out. Chris Burke grounded into a fielder’s choice, with Hundley being forced out at second. First and third, down three runs, with two outs and a solid closer on the mound, and perhaps the weakest power hitter in baseball at the plate. And Eckstein launches a three-run homer to tie the game! Eckstein! That homer was totally the byproduct of clutchiness and grittiness.

If only that was where the unusual events stopped. No, following the home run to tie the game, the Diamondbacks and Padres would play the equivalent of an entire game without scoring. In fact, the Diamondbacks relievers threw a no-hitter in this second game. Literally, a no-hitter. Jon Rauch, Esmerling Vasquez, Clay Zavada, and Leo Rosales combined for nine no-hit innings from the 10th-18th. The DBacks would pull ahead in the top of the 18th on a Mark Reynolds three-run blast, but an extremely unlikely comeback from an anemic offense fueled by one of the least powerful hitters ever, and followed by a no-hitter is certainly a solid recipe for game of the week honors.


Super Upton Bros.

Hundreds of players will begin their quest towards the major leagues with the amateur draft tomorrow night. Two of the better high school prospects over the last decade are making impressions with their leather this season and coincidentally both share a blood link. Genealogy aside, Justin Upton and B.J. Upton present two very different sets of skills.

Dave has talked about Justin at depth since the off-season, mostly about his stellar offensive play and ludicrously brief rise to stardom. Upton the Younger has been improved defensively as well, sitting just shy of five total fielding runs. Compare his UZR components from this year to those of previous years and the striking differences are in Upton’s Arm and Error runs. Upton compiled -2.4 ErrR in both of his first two seasons, but has improved to 0.4 this year.

Upton has only been playing right field for a few seasons now, so the increased sure-handiness should probably be expected, although maybe it’s just small sample sizes playing tricks on us. If the improvements are genuine, there’s even more reason to single out Upton as the bright spot of the Diamondbacks offense this season.

Young players changing positions is something that Upton the Elder can relate to. B.J.’s offense heretofore has disappointed, although recently he’s shown signs of awakening. Upton’s defense seemed unaffected by a torn labrum last season and Upton the same defensive prowess. Like Justin, B.J. has improved his rate of errors and is even showing more range.

Everyone knows how this Upton came up a hotshot shortstop with a fondness for overthrowing first basemen. Upton shifted to third and second before finding himself in center and shining. If you watched any of the post-season last year or really any Rays game broadcasted anywhere you’ve undoubtedly heard about how shallow Upton plays. Upton’s UZR/150 currently sits at 13.1, two runs higher than his 2008 total.

Both Uptons were drafted not for their defensive ability, but instead insane offensive potential coming from premium defensive positions. Neither stuck at shortstop along the way, yet still both have became quite talented defenders at their professional positions.


The 2009 MLB Draft

The moment we have all been waiting for is almost here. The 2009 MLB Amateur Draft will begin on Tuesday, June 9 at 6 pm Eastern time with the first round airing live on the MLB Network. MLB.com will be streaming the first three rounds of the draft (plus the supplemental rounds), all of which will occur on June 9. The remainder of the draft (the other 47 rounds) will be spread out over the following two days (June 10 and 11).

In 2008, the Tampa Bay Rays selected Georgia high school shortstop Tim Beckham with the first overall pick. Pittsburgh took Vanderbilt University third baseman Pedro Alvarez with the second selection, followed by Kansas City, which nabbed Florida prep first baseman Eric Hosmer.

The Washington Nationals organization has the first overall pick and is expected to take San Diego State right-hander Stephen Strasburg, the consensus best player available. University of North Carolina outfielder Dustin Ackley is expected to go second overall to Seattle. After that, things get murky. The Philadelphia Phillies will be the last organization to pick in the draft when it makes the 75th selection. The club gave its first-round pick (27th overall) to Seattle when it signed free agent outfielder Raul Ibanez, which has turned out pretty good for Philadelphia, so far.

For more than a month now, Fangraphs.com has been reviewing each teams past three drafts, as well as offering some insight into how each club might approach the 2009 draft. Links to each of those reviews is listed below in 2009 draft order (Just click on the team’s name). Be sure to check back with Fangraphs after the draft for post-draft analysis.

Draft Reviews (In order of 2009 draft)

First Round
1. Washington Nationals
2. Seattle Mariners
3. San Diego Padres
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
5. Baltimore Orioles
6. San Francisco Giants
7. Atlanta Braves
8. Cincinnati Reds
9. Detroit Tigers
10. Washington Nationals (Compensation)
11. Colorado Rockies
12. Kansas City Royals
13. Oakland Athletics
14. Texas Rangers
15. Cleveland Indians
16. Arizona Diamondbacks
17. Arizona Diamondbacks (Compensation)
18. Florida Marlins
19. St. Louis Cardinals
20. Toronto Blue Jays
21. Houston Astros
22. Minnesota Twins
23. Chicago White Sox
24. Los Angeles Angels (Compensation)
25. Los Angeles Angels (Compensation)
26. Milwaukee Brewers
27. Seattle Mariners (Compensation)
28. Boston Red Sox
29. New York Yankees (Compensation)
30. Tampa Bay Rays
31. Chicago Cubs
32. Colorado Rockies (Compensation)

Supplemental First Round
36. Los Angeles Dodgers

Second Round
72. New York Mets
75. Philadelphia Phillies