A month away from the midsummer classic, today we’ll look at my ballot for the 2009 All-Star teams. We’ll do the American League first, then tackle the NL tonight. The starter will be listed first, followed by the reserves.

Catcher: Joe Mauer (MIN), Victor Martinez (CLE), Mike Napoli (LAA)

The first two are no-brainers, and Napoli gets the edge over Posada due to quantity of playing of time.

First Base: Kevin Youkilis (BOS), Justin Morneau (MIN), Mark Teixeira (New York)

With apologies to Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Pena, and Russell Branyan. First base is just a ridiculously loaded group in the AL this year. With the game being played in an NL park, meaning no DH, they can’t carry four first baseman.

Second Base: Ian Kinsler (TEX), Dustin Pedroia (BOS), Aaron Hill (TOR)

You could really make a case for any of these three as the starter, and I wouldn’t argue with you.

Shortstop: Jason Bartlett (TB), Derek Jeter (NY), Marco Scutaro (TOR)

Bartlett is second in the AL in wOBA and playing quality defense at shortstop. Jeter will get the starting nod, of course, but you can’t really have a better two months than Bartlett just had.

Third Base: Evan Longoria (TB), Alex Rodriguez (NY), Brandon Inge (DET)

Inge is flying under the radar, but having a really, really good season. There’s no real argument for anyone besides those three.

Outfield: Ichiro Suzuki (SEA), Torii Hunter (LAA), Carl Crawford (TB), Nelson Cruz (TEX), Adam Jones (BAL), Jason Bay (BOS)

The difference in park effects pushed Ichiro ahead of Cruz for a starting job, but either choice would be fine. You could make an argument for Bay ahead of Crawford, but they’re both having fantastic years, and the starting line-up could use another LH hitter in it.

Starting Pitchers: Zack Greinke (KC), Justin Verlander (DET), Roy Halladay (TOR), Cliff Lee (CLE), Felix Hernandez (SEA), Edwin Jackson (DET), Dallas Braden (OAK)

Good luck, National League hitters. Braden is Oakland’s token rep, by the way.

Relief Pitchers: Frank Francisco (TEX), Mariano Rivera (NY), Scott Downs (TOR), Matt Thornton (CHI)

Downs and Thornton deserve some recognition for the outstanding years they’re having, and the pitching staff leans heavily to the right-hand side, so having a couple of shut down lefty relievers is a nice bonus.

Just Missed It Guy: Ben Zobrist. His positional flexibility will let him replace whoever pulls out. He deserves to go to St. Louis, and he probably will.

Final tallies by team:

Four: New York, Toronto
Three: Tampa Bay, Boston, Texas, Detroit
Two: Seattle, Cleveland, Minnesota, Los Angeles
One: Chicago, Oakland, Baltimore, Kansas City

One of the best parts of having the Extra Innings baseball package is that I get the chance to consistently watch out of market teams. Sure, ESPN and FOX broadcast games every so often but I am a baseball junkie and need my fix just about every night. While recently utilizing the package to its fullest capacity, I came to the realization that the Florida Marlins have a really tall starting rotation. And I don’t mean tall in a relative form, as in tall compared to Jimmy Rollins, but tall in general.

Andrew Miller, one of the prized prospects acquired for Miguel Cabrera, is listed at 6’6″. Josh Johnson and Chris Volstad each check in at 6’7″. Lastly, Sean West, a recent callup whom Marc deemed the best pitching prospect in their farm system, stands a mighty 6’8″. These four guys, all of whom are currently full-time starters for the team, average 79.0 inches. Of course, pitchers like Anibal Sanchez and Ricky Nolasco weigh down the average, but it got me thinking – who were the tallest rotations in the Retrosheet era?

To be considered eligible for this study, a pitcher needed to make at least 10 starts in a season. Then, the averages were taken for all teams using all qualifying pitchers. The tallest average rotations of the last 55 years have been:

Seattle Mariners, 1993: 77.33 inches
Arizona Diamondbacks, 2008: 77.16 inches
Seattle Mariners, 1992: 77.15 inches
Cleveland Indians, 2003: 77.12 inches
Seattle Mariners, 1991: 77.05 inches

Incidentally, these were the only five teams with an average exceeding 77 inches, meaning that the average pitcher on their team to make at least 10 starts stood 6’5″. Randy Johnson clearly played a huge role in these rankings, even though I avoided using a weighted average. Johnson was a starter for all three of the Mariners teams as well as last year’s incarnation of the Diamondbacks.

In 1993, Johnson was joined by the 6’6″ Erik Hanson, so he at least had one tall compadre. The year before, Johnson and Hanson received height contributions from the 6’4″ Brian Fisher. In 1991, Johnson and Hanson were joined by the 6’5″ Bill Krueger and the 6’4″ Brian Holman.

The 2008 Diamondbacks featured all 6’10” of Johnson, 6’5″ from both Dan Haren and Micah Owings, and the 6’4″ Doug Davis. The 2003 Indians were led by the 6’7″ CC Sabathia but received plenty of starts from the 6’6″ Jason Davis and 6’5″ Jake Westbrook.

Interestingly, no team other than the 2008 Florida Marlins had four or more pitchers exceeding 6’5″ in a season in which they each made 10+ starts. Volstad, Johnson and Miller were there last season, but substitute Mark Hendrickson for Sean West. The Marlins might not have the tallest average, yet at least, but they certainly have the most tall pitchers consistently making starts over the last half-century.

It seems silly that a team sitting at 13-36 with a -68 runs differential can be talked about as having playoff chances, but technically, the Nationals do. Most simulations have the Nationals between 0.0 and 0.1% playoff odds. I’m with you if you’re willing to write the Nationals chances completely off right here and right now, but there’s always an outlier or two in history that suggests we shouldn’t be so declarative.

In this case, that outlier is the 2005 Houston Astros. On June 7th, the Astros sat 16 games behind first place, same as the Nationals. Their record was a revolting 21-35. The Astros would win four of their next five series, bringing their record on Jun 26th to 33-40. Little headway was gained despite the 12 of 17 run, as they remained 13 games back. On July 19th, the Astros crossed the .500 barrier for the first time in ages, putting themselves at 47-46, 13 games back. They would go on to reach win 50 before losing another game. On July 31st the division leading Cardinals were 9.5 ahead after a Mets victory, but still the Astros were 57-48 and on a ridiculous tear.

The Astros were helped by hot streaks like Lance Berkman. Entering June 7th, Berkman’s OPS sat below .730, and would dip below .700 days later, during the stretch Berkman hit .341/.447/.582 in a little over 215 plate appearances. Roy Oswalt would make 11 starts, allowing 16 earned runs and nine walks in 82.3 innings. Roger Clemens would top Oswalt by going 61 innings in nine starts, allowing only eight earned runs and 20 walks.

On September 1st, the Astros were 70-62, 14 out of first place, but in the thick of the Wild Card hunt. Four weeks later the Astros would finish with 89 wins, one more than the Philadelphia Phillies, allowing the improbable to occur. The 2005 Houston Astros had somehow made the playoffs.

Outliers like that don’t occur often, despite the 2004/2005 Astros and 2002 A’s run to the playoffs, but they do happen. It seems highly, highly unlikely that the Nationals will even sniff .500, far from a playoff spot. The Nationals lack a Roy Oswalt or a Roger Clemens or even an Andy Pettitte. They may add Stephen Strasburg at some point, but unless he’s cloned a dozen times, it probably won’t be enough.

I know I said that we shouldn’t be declarative, but the Nationals have about as much chance of making the playoffs this season as Dave Cameron revealing himself as Bill Bavasi. Although, I must say, the idea of a sinking ship somehow winning a cross-Atlantic boat race after enduring massive damage in the first leg sure does make for a good underdog story.

Two months into the season and we start to enter trade season in which teams are separating themselves into those playing for this year and those not. Starting today, I am going to go through the teams and evaluate their 2009 playoff prospects and for those falling far enough to one side or another, look at players that are candidates to be dealt or positions to be filled via trade.

The series starts off with Oakland in the AL West. Coming into the year, Oakland seemed like a potential favorite for the division, especially after the Angels’ early injuries. The starting rotation seemed to be the potential pitfall and that has certainly borne fruit with the 6th worst FIP in baseball. They have made up for that with their bullpen, ranked 5th in baseball and their defense is adequate as well. With that, it would seem like Oakland would still be in the midst of the weak AL West race, but 48 games into the season the Athletics are ten games out of first and have just a 5.55% chance of making the playoffs according to PECOTA.

What has gone wrong is the offense, ranked completely last in baseball. Winter imports Jason Giambi, Matt Holliday and Orlando Cabrera have not much to boost the A’s as now all three are certain trade candidates as all three are free agents at the end of the season, though the A’s do have an option on Giambi. The question would be what Oakland might be able to get for those players. Cabrera’s offense has been so bad that he seems unlikely to return any value. Ditto Giambi because of his offense and position. Holliday will almost certainly return something, but it just as certainly going to be far less than Billy Beane hoped three months ago.

Other trade candidates include Russ Springer, Bobby Crosby and Adam Kennedy. Springer and Crosby don’t seem set to garner much either, especially Crosby with his salary. Adam Kennedy though, gotten for cheap from Tampa, who got him for nothing from St. Louis, is boasting a 1.084 OPS through 82 at bats. He’s not going to hang onto that line, but do not be surprised if he’s on the move shortly along with Holliday.

Josh Willingham began his career with the Marlins, becoming an everyday starter in 2006. For three years, he posted remarkably consistent offensive numbers: wOBAs of .364, .365, and .363. Much like then teammate Hanley Ramirez, Willingham sandwiched a very poor UZR mark in 2007 with ratings that hovered around the league average. This past offseason, he was traded to the Nationals, along with Scott Olsen, in exchange for Emilio Bonifacio and a couple of prospects. Despite employing a glut of outfielders, the Nationals have been able to give Willingham 133 plate appearances this season, and boy has he responded.

Willingham is staying relatively true to his career marks with a .252 BA and .376 OBP, but has produced a .550 SLG so far that dwarfs his career .477 mark. The surge has helped his wOBA soar to a robust .393. Most of the total bases involved in the SLG calculation come from Willingham’s nine home runs, but there is something much more interesting about those dingers – they are all solo home runs!

Nine home runs, all solo, which makes his 9 HR-12 RBI line quite comical. Curious about the nature and frequency of solo homers, I tallied the number of solo dingers in my database for each player-season, divided by the total home runs hit and determined the solo home run percentages. To find the leaders and trailers for all players since 1954, it really depends on the floors set.

For instance, of anyone with at least 15 total home runs in a season, Ken Singleton has the record for highest solo percentage at 1.000, as he went a perfect 15-15 in 1975 for the Orioles. On the flipside, Tom Brunansky went 1-16 in 1990, a 0.0625 rate. How about if we adjust the minimum to 20?

Curtis Granderson launched 23 longballs in 2007, but 21 were solo homers. In fact, many of the leaders in solo homer percentage were leadoff hitters, which makes intuitive sense given that a leadoff home run comes with nobody on base, and that they might come to the plate with the bases empty less often with poor hitters in front of them. Behind Grandy is Dave Winfield, who went 18-20 in 1974 with the Padres. At the bottom of the list is Greg Luzinski, who went 3-21 in 1976, a 0.143 percentage. When we make a subtle adjustment from a minimum of 15 to a minimum of 20, the lowest percentage jumps from 6.3% to 14.3%.

Toby Harrah tops the list with a minimum of 25 homers, when he went 22-25 in 1982 for the Indians. Behind him is Bobby Bonds, who went 22-26 in 1970. At the bottom of the list: Frank Thomas (not the White Sox guy) in 1956 for the Pirates went 5-25, and Hank Aaron went 8-38 in 1970. Kevin Youkilis had one of the lowest percentages last season, as only eight of his 29 home runs were of the solo variety.

How about if we place the minimum at 40 home runs? Of the 239 player-seasons, nobody had a higher solo percentage than Richard Hidalgo, who hit 35 solo home runs out of 44 total in 2000. Barry Bonds could have tied Hidalgo but decided to hit one more total home run with runners on in 2003, when he went 35-45. The lowest such percentage belongs to Bonds’ godfather, Willie Mays, who hit 14 solo homers out of 51 total in 1955. Recently, Alex Rodriguez went 18-54 in 2007, the same year in which Ryan Howard went 17-47. Howard also went 22-48 last year.

What makes Willingham’s “feat” all the more interesting is his spot in the lineup as well as the team for which he plays. Josh generally hits fifth for the Nationals, behind such on-base luminaries as Nick Johnson, Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Dunn. That he has not hit a home run with any of these guys on base is particularly mind-boggling. He projects to finish the season with 23 home runs, which would put him in Granderson territory if he can keep up this solo pace.

2008 Draft Slot: Second overall
Top Pick: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt University
Best Pick: Pedro Alvarez
Keep an Eye On: Robbie Grossman, OF, Texas high school (Sixth round)
Notes: The Pirates organization is still trying to live down some poor (cheap) draft picks from recent years and Pedro Alvarez was the first move in an attempt to erase those memories. He’s struggling more than expected in high-A ball, but scouts agree that the tools and potential to be a star player at the Major League level are still there. The organization gave Robbie Grossman $1 million to sign after he slid to the sixth round. He’s shown some intriguing tools, but his power has been muted (one homer in 152 low-A at-bats in 2009) and he’s striking out more than 40% of the time as a pro. The Pirates failed to sign second-round pick Tanner Scheppers out of Fresno State, who is expected to go in the first 10 picks of the 2009 draft.

2007 Draft Slot: Fourth overall
Top Pick: Daniel Moskos, LHP, Clemson University
Best Pick: Brian Friday, SS, Rice University (3rd round)
Worst Pick: Daniel Moskos
Notes: Daniel Moskos was an ill-advised selection with the fourth pick from Day 1, especially with the likes of Matt Wieters, Rick Porcello, Madison Bumgarner and Matt LaPorta still on the board. Moskos was terrible last year (124 hits in 110.1 innings) and things are not getting any better this season (52 IP, 20 BB, 18 K – 3.12 K/9). Making matters worse, the club failed to find any diamonds in the rough in later rounds. This an all-around-uninspiring draft. Shortstop Brian Friday looks like he could develop into a nice utility player at the MLB level.

2006 Draft Slot: Fourth overall
Top Pick: Brad Lincoln, RHP, University of Houston
Best Pick: Brad Lincoln
Worst Pick: Mike Felix, LHP, Troy University (2nd round)
Notes: Brad Lincoln’s career was slowed by Tommy John surgery in 2007, but he’s looked good so far this season in double-A. He has a fastball that can still touch the mid-90s, as well as a plus curveball. Lincoln projects as a No. 2 or 3 starter. Shelby Ford and Jim Negrych should both, at the very least, develop into useful part-time players at the Major League level.

2009 Draft Slot: Fourth overall
Draft Preference (2006-08): College prospects
MLB Club Need: Starting pitching, Relief pitching
Organizational Need: Right-handed pitching, Left-handed pitching, Left field, First base
Organizational Strength: Shortstop, Center field, Third base
Notes: Along with the fourth-overall selection in the draft, Pittsburgh also has the final supplemental first round pick (49th overall) for failing to come to terms with 2008 second round draft pick Tanner Scheppers. With the fourth-overall pick, Pittsburgh has reportedly been focusing on prep picks, according to ESPN’s Keith Law. Baseball America has the club looking at independent league hurler Aaron Crow and college pitcher Kyle Gibson, as well as prep hurler Zack Wheeler. Both media outlets report that the club is trying to free up money to sign the top Dominican prospect: Miguel Angel Sano.

Quick Note: After the post on Friday about Fernando Martinez, Tim Marchman emailed me to say the headline was a joke. Whoops. Sorry about that, Tim – keep up the good work.

We’re now at the 50 game mark for most teams, which essentially represents the first third of the season. We’re getting away from performances that can be explained using “small sample size!”, and starting to get to the point where contenders and looking to upgrade at the expense of rebuilders. What did we learn last week?

The Rays will be fine without Akinori Iwamura.

When Tampa lost their starting second baseman for the rest of the season with a torn ACL, the rumor guys went into hyperdrive in suggesting that Andrew Friedman would be in the market for a veteran infielder to help fill the hole. However, the Rays stated they would fill the void from within, and it seems fairly apparent that they’ll be able to do just that. The injury makes Ben Zobrist a full-time player, and given how he’s playing, that might make Tampa a better team overall. He hit .417 with six extra base hits and seven walks last week, continuing a breakout that isn’t losing any steam as the season goes on.

Maybe Kenny Williams should be looking for hitters?

After having Jake Peavy decline an invitation to join the White Sox, Kenny Williams has reportedly set his sights on other front line starting pitchers to bolster his rotation for the second half of the year. However, the guys he’s looking to replace (Clayton Richard and Bartolo Colon) have been just fine and continued to make strong cases for themselves last week with quality starts. Meanwhile, Carlos Quentin has landed on the disabled list and the team still has significant holes at 2B, 3B, and CF. A good starting pitcher would be nice, but perhaps Chicago should focus on fixing the leaks on the boat before they start upgrading the furniture?

Ervin Santana should still be rehabbing.

The Angels got two starts out of Santana last week, and they weren’t pretty – 6 1/3 innings, 19 hits, 4 walks, 3 strikeouts, 3 home runs – a 21.62 ERA supported by a 10.64 FIP. His average fastball is 90.7 MPH since returning from the DL, a far cry from last year’s 94.4 MPH average. Just take a look at his Pitch F/x velocity chart:

Even if his elbow doesn’t hurt anymore, perhaps sending him back to the minors to build some arm strength might be a decent idea?

Josh Outman’s quiet breakout continues.

Heading into the season, the kids getting all the attention in the A’s rotation were Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill, but Outman is quickly establishing himself as a peer to his more hyped rotation mates. Armed with a mid-90s fastball and a devastating slider, he blew opposing hitters away again last week, striking out nine in 6 2/3 innings. In 73 major league innings since being acquired for Joe Blanton, Outman has posted a 4.06 FIP, and his stuff shows the potential for much more if he can harness his command. Blanton pitched well for Philadelphia in the playoffs last year, but you have to think that pitching starved Phillies wouldn’t mind having Outman back at this point.

Marco Scutaro is having a hilarious season.

Part of the Blue Jays strong start to the season was the out-of-nowhere offensive surge from Scutaro, who starting hitting for power and drawing walks like a clean-up hitter rather than a 33-year-old journeyman infielder. Given his historical performances, regression to the mean was inevitable, and last week, Scutaro drew just one walk and didn’t hit a single home run in 30 plate appearances. Instead, he made up for it by hitting .483. When one flukey performance wears out, he just finds another.

One of the issues that arises when writing a weekly feature like this is how the more recent games tend to stand out. I have made a conscious effort to make notes about potential games of the week each day but it seems that the winners so far have all gravitated towards the weekend. Not this week, however, when the top game occurred on Monday, Memorial Day, and left little doubt in my mind about its status as the recipient of this week’s honor. On Monday, the Indians hosted the Rays and made sure their home turf went unsoiled.

The Rays were cruising to a victory until the end of the game, when the road apparently became the Nitro rollercoaster at Six Flags and the Indians saw their win expectancy rise from the ashes and soar upwards. How did this happen? Ask Grant Balfour, Dale Thayer, Randy Choate and Jason Isringhausen, all of whom managed to squander a 10-2 lead held by the Rays as the eighth inning began.

Fausto Carmona continued to convince people his solid 2007 was nothing more than a fluke by surrendering five runs in the second inning, lasting just 1.1 frames. Jensen Lewis relieved Carmona but did not provide fans of the Tribe any relief, giving up a two-run jimmy-jack to Gabe Gross in the third inning. A Carlos Pena single, Ben Zobrist double, and Dioner Navarro hit by pitch with the bases loaded later, the Rays led 10-0 in the fourth inning.

Ryan Garko launched a two-run homer in the bottom of the inning, and a whole lot of nothing would transpire until the eighth. Dale Thayer entered the game and was promptly greeted by three straight singles off the bats of Shin-Soo Choo, Mark DeRosa, and Ryan Garko. With the bases loaded and nobody out, the Indians win expectancy remained a miniscule 1.9%. Matt LaPorta grounded into a double play, scoring Choo but decreasing their likelihood of winning to 0.3%. Ben Francisco singled in DeRosa before the inning ended, leaving the score at 10-4 in favor of the Rays, entering the ninth.

Jeremy Sowers made it through the top half of the inning unharmed and then the fun began. Or, for Rays fans, then the heartburn began. Thayer, still in the game, walked Grady Sizemore before inducing a flyout from Victor Martinez. Jhonny Peralta followed with a single, advancing Sizemore to second base. Randy Choate relieved Thayer, and despite getting Choo to ground the ball to shortstop, a fielders choice and error later, the score was 10-5 with two runners on and one out. Grant Balfour entered the game and got DeRosa to line out to third, leaving the Indians with a 0.7% win expectancy.

You all probably know where this is going. Despite a win expectancy below 1%, with two outs, the Indians managed to plate six more runners and win the contest. Following DeRosa, Garko hit his second homer of the game, a three-run blast off of Balfour, bringing the score to 10-8. Still, with two outs, the Indians were only considered to have a 1.7% chance of winning. After walking Asdrubal Cabrera, Joe Maddon turned to Isringhausen.

Izzy walked Ben Francisco and Jamey Carroll to load the bases, and then perhaps in the hope of staying consistent, walked Grady Sizemore. 10-9, 28% chance of winning. Victor Martinez then singled two runners in the Indians put the final touches on a monumental comeback. Without question, the top game last week.

Amongst the oddities in the UZR rankings, Carlos Beltran’s -3.9 value ranks high on the list. Beltran is universally renowned for his defensive prowess and ability to make even the most difficult of plays look routine. The accolades are well deserved. Only once in our UZR data has Beltran posted a UZR in the negative for an entire season. That was in 2005, Beltran’s first year with the Mets and as a whole one of the worst seasons for Beltran.

During that season, Beltran posted a career low in RngR of -8. So far this year, Beltran’s RngR is -2.5, his ErrR is -0.5, and his ARM is down to -0.9. Overall his UZR -3.9 while +/- has him at 1.6 runs. Clearly, Beltran hasn’t been quite what we would expect. What’s the reason for his sudden decline?

Well, how about the brand new ballpark? UZR attempts to adjust based on the parks played in, a new park offers little in the way of data for adjustments, so for now we’re still using the park factors from Shea. Obviously upgraded seats and paint isn’t causing Beltran to make more errors, but could it be affecting Beltran’s range?

It’s hard to take such a small sample size of defensive data seriously, but if we just compare the outfielders who were with the Mets during their time in both parks, we can see if there’s any overlaying trend involved. Beltran, Fernando Tatis, Ryan Church, Angel Pagan, and Daniel Murphy are all included in this grouping. Upon doing so you find…nothing. There’s far too much statistical noise to draw anything worthwhile out of these numbers, even for speculative purposes.

Moving on, we do know the dimensions have changed slightly. Here’s a comparison:

Shea Stadium LF: 338 LC: 371 C: 410 RC: 371 R: 338
Citi Field LF: 335 LC: 379 CF: 408 RC: 383 RF: 330

There’s some more room in the left/right center areas, but less to deep center. Checking Bill James Online’s +/-, they have Beltran with the following rankings for shallow, medium, and deep; -2, +3, +1. Over the last three years, Beltran has had shallow rates of +10, +5, -4; medium rates of +5, +1, -3; and deep rates of +10, +18, and +18. Basically, Beltran struggles to play shallowly hit balls, but excels at balls hit deep.

I haven’t been able to observe many Mets games this year, but I do wonder if this is a positioning thing. With Beltran playing back further to guard against balls hit in to left and right center, thus allowing some balls to drop in front of him that he would usually catch. For any of the Mets fans out there, have you noticed any difference in Beltran’s defense?