Kevin Millar’s role with the Blue Jays is one he’s played often: the non-descript, blasé veteran bat that happens to tote a championship ring on his finger. Millar’s pitch-type distribution reeks of oddity despite seeing nearly 600 pitches. That’s because nearly 5% of those pitches have registered as knuckleballs. The most recognizable knuckleballer remaining, Boston’s Tim Wakefield, has faced off with Millar on six different occasions this season.

How can nearly 5% of Millar’s pitches seen come from those six plate appearances? Like this:

PA#1: three pitches, pop out
PA#2: one pitch, homer
PA#3: three pitches, groundout
PA#4: seven pitches, walk
PA#5: four pitches, strikeout
PA#6: eight pitches, walk

Sure enough, 26 pitches over six plate appearances. A Millar season would not be complete without a few lengthy at-bats against Wakefield. In 2008, Millar racked up 23 pitches in six plate appearances, including a nine-pitch strikeout; in 2007, Millar drew 13 of his 29 overall in one plate appearance, which ended in a single.

To Millar’s credit, he’s been quite good at hitting the knuckler. After departing from the Red Sox, Millar’s wKN/C are: 8.18, 3.75, -2.29, and this year 9.79. Using the leaderboards from the past three seasons, Millar leads the majors in wKN, just ahead of Johnny Damon, Aubrey Huff, and a trunk load of Yankees. This makes sense, given Millar’s residence in the division during each of those seasons.

I guess the ability to hit knucklers is as good as any reason to keep Millar employed.

Continuing on from my previous post, here now are the five most unlucky pitchers thus far baseball.

First, a word of explanation on what I mean when I use the term luck. It actually comprises three distinct realms: defense, park and noise. A pitcher may change his or her approach depending on the quality of the defense behind him, though I am not sure if we have ever seen an extensive study really delve into the topic, but I consider the presence of a good or bad defense behind the pitcher to be outside of his control and thus, a pitcher is lucky if he has a good one and unlucky if he does not. Ditto on pitcher’s versus hitter’s parks. The last part is the actual luck, or noise as we statisticians are more apt to label it.

Manny Parra has certainly not been outstanding this season. His 55 strikeouts to 41 walks should be enough to see that. His FIP stands at 5.14 in the National League. Still, that is a far cry from his 7.52 ERA and for that you put the bulk of the blame on his .368 BABIP. He has pitched a bit worse this year than last, but I would agree with ZiPS and say that if given a chance, a 4.30 FIP going forward sounds about right.

Jorge De La Rosa gets to pitch in Colorado, and no matter the reduced effect over the early 2000s, it is still a friendly place to hitters thanks to its large outfield dimensions. De La Rosa has actually improved on his good 2008 season but a .343 BABIP and 61.6% LOB% do much to hide that.

Chien-Ming Wang might be no surprise given his 12.65 ERA. After all, it is awfully hard to earn an ERA that high. Then again, Wang’s appearance on this list despite just 26.1 innings thrown is remarkable. But that is what can happen with a .458 BABIP and a 50.4% strand rate. That is not to say that Wang has actually been fine and just unlucky. No, he has been legitimately terrible. Just not 12.65 terrible.

Ricky Nolasco plays on the team that is currently second worst in the Majors in UZR. That right there will make you a prime candidate to appear on any unlucky pitcher list. Nolasco’s 4.10 FIP is not far off his 2008 mark of 3.77 but his BABIP has risen from .284 to .399, though a decent part of that is his own fault as he the rate of line drives that Nolasco has allowed has risen from 19% to 25%.

Brett Anderson plays in front of a good defense housed inside a pitcher friendly park. It is pretty remarkable then that he has managed to accrue the fifth most unlucky runs scored against him in 2009. You would not think so looking at the spread between his FIP (5.30) and his ERA (5.77), but it is true nonetheless because of the key factor that FIP ignores, batted balls. Anderson’s low 14.4% line drive rate should help keep his BABIP below the league average, especially when paired with a good defense. Instead, it sits at .329.

As you might have noticed, one of the major differences between this list and the previous list is that a majority of these pitchers (four) are still poor even after we account for their good fortune, whereas in the last list all but Matt Cain were bad pitchers looking good because of good luck. These are bad pitchers looking worse.

I got on the subject of looking up pitchers whose ERAs wildly differ from their actual performance level today so I decided to share. We hopefully all know by now that ERA is a very flawed measurement of a pitcher’s performance and that is why we defer to metrics like FIP, DERA or tRA. Using a combination of the three, I decided to pull the top five pitches on each side of the luck spectrum and present them.

First, a word of explanation on what I mean when I use the term luck. It actually comprises three distinct realms: defense, park and noise. A pitcher may change his or her approach depending on the quality of the defense behind him, though I am not sure if we have ever seen an extensive study really delve into the topic, but I consider the presence of a good or bad defense behind the pitcher to be outside of his control and thus, a pitcher is lucky if he has a good one and unlucky if he does not. Ditto on pitcher’s versus hitter’s parks. The last part is the actual luck, or noise as we statisticians are more apt to label it.

I will start with the “lucky” ones.

Kevin Millwood has seen his swinging strikes fall to a career low and he is throwing more pitches out of the zone than ever by a wide margin, dipping down below 50% for the first time all the way to 45.8%. His ground balls have returned to pre-2008 levels, but that has done nothing to help his home run rate, at its highest point as well.

John Lannan, the 24-year-old lefty seemed poised for a good season this year after some encouraging trends last year in his ability to throws strikes, miss bats and keep the ball on the ground. The strike throwing and the ground ball rate have at least remained stable, but the missed bats are down a whole two points and the home run rate remains elevated. Lannan is young and under team control for awhile, but I might consider moving him if I were the Nationals and could trick some team into giving up a haul of prospects for his shiny ERA.

Matt Cain has had his ups and downs in numerous key categories over the years to a point that he has become hard to peg down. This season has seen his strike throwing dip to a new career low while his first pitch strike percentage reaches a career high. The ground balls are up and the line drives are down. He is missing a touch fewer bats than last year, but he is right in line with his 2006-7 years. In fact, unlike the previous two pitches, Matt Cain has been legitimately good, he has just also been lucky.

Mark Buehrle follows the trend set above of pitchers missing the zone at career high rates this season. It builds off his 2008 season which was his previous career low in strikes thrown. Buehrle has gone from 52.5% to 49.7% and now to 46.4% over the last three seasons. That is a cause for concern.

Trevor Cahill completes the set with his lowest zone% of his career in 2009. Of course, that is somewhat cheating since Cahill has never before pitched in the Major Leagues. Or in Triple-A for that matter either, so we have no pitch data from which to compare against. Suffice to say that his .269 BABIP and pitching-friendly stadium are enough to land him fifth.

While this is a list of the five most lucky pitchers, which in and of itself, has nothing to do with their overall skill level, it is curious that all five of these have had just poor performances in the areas that do allow us a glimpse into their controlled performance level.

Last week, I noted that Ron Gardenhire put out a tragedy of an outfield defense when he stuck Michael Cuddyer in center field and flanked him with Delmon Young and Jason Kubel. The Twins are traditionally a defense oriented ballclub with a pitching staff full of pitch to contact strike throwers, so it was surprising to see Minnesota put such a poor collection of gloves on the field at the same time.

Well, the latest odd defensive decision from Gardenhire isn’t as disastrous as the no-glove outfield, but it might be just as weird.

The Twins gave Nick Punto a 2 year, $8 million contract over the winter to retain their starting shortstop. While he’s not much of a hitter, Punto has proven to be an extremely adept fielder, posting a career UZR/150 of +17.5 at shortstop and +19.5 at second base over 3,300 career innings up the middle. He’s not flashy, but he has good range and is very steady, rarely making errors. The combination makes him one of the better defensive shortstops in the game.

Well, Punto went on the disabled list at the end of May, and the Twins used Brendan Harris as his replacement while he was away. Harris, while an okay hitter for a middle infielder, is a lousy defender. He’s a career -9.5 UZR/150 at shortstop and -6.7 at second base, and he just doesn’t have the range to be a quality defender at an up the middle position.

Punto came off the DL on June 11th, and he’s been playing regularly for the last week. At second base.

Yes, Gardenhire has decided that when he puts Harris and Punto on the field together, he’s giving Harris the more challenging defensive position and putting Punto at the less important of the two middle infield spots. Remember, Punto is a borderline gold glover at short, while Harris probably shouldn’t be playing the position at all.

I don’t get it. If the Twins didn’t think Punto could play shortstop, they wouldn’t have re-signed him for $4 million a year – they’re not paying for his bat. So, did Harris make one great play that convinced Gardenhire that he’s a changed man defensively? Is he bribing him? What possible reason could the Twins have for running out a bad defender at shortstop and a really good defender at second base?

Over the next few days, we’re looking at sophomore players in the Major Leagues. Today’s post is looking at the American League West division, which was home to quite a few interesting rookie names in 2008. Yesterday, we looked at the American League East and on Tuesday it was the AL Central.

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Catcher Jeff Clement was in line to be the next big offensive-minded catcher in baseball. He was also an early possibility for the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2008, but a funny thing happened on the way to the Hall of Fame… Clement struggled with the bat, the organization made a stupid contract commitment to a veteran player at his position, and the club seemingly lost all confidence in him. Despite hitting well throughout his brief minor career and producing a .335/.455/.676 line in 48 triple-A games in 2008, the Mariners soured on Clement after he hit just .227/.295/.360 in his first taste of the Majors (66 games). In 2009, he’s started just 16 games at catcher at triple-A and 38 at designated hitter, because of a lingering knee problem and the organization’s obvious belief that his future is not behind the dish. Overall, Clement’s hitting .280/.352/.466 with seven homers. The left-handed hitter is batting just .219 versus southpaws (compared to .304 against right-handers).

The emphasis on outfield defense in Seattle has relegated Wladimir Balentien to the bench despite the fact he hit seven home runs in 71 games last season – oh, and he also hit just .202/.250/.342. Despite his obvious struggles with the bat and making contact (29.8 K% in the Majors), the organization has kept Balentien in the Majors for the entire 2009 season and he’s hitting just .218/.273/.336 with one home runs in 110 at-bats. The 24-year-old is out of options so the club is stuck between a rock and a hard place, but it’s not doing Balentien’s career any favors.

After a few abbreviated attempts at beginning his MLB career, Mark Lowe finally enjoyed a full season in the Majors in 2008 with modest results. He posted a 5.37 ERA (4.42 FIP) and allowed 78 hits in 63.2 innings of work. In 2009, he’s continued to show some improvements with a 3.90 ERA (3.92 FIP) and 32 hits allowed in 30 innings of work. His walk rate has improved from 4.81 to 3.90 BB/9 but his strikeout rate has also plummeted from 7.77 to 6.00 K/9.

Outfielder Ryan Sweeney appeared in 115 games for the A’s in 2008 but he had a pretty hollow season with a line of .286/.350/.383. He didn’t show much power with just five home runs and he didn’t use his speed by stealing nine bases. Things are not getting much better for the 24-year-old in 2009 with a line of .246/.313/.319. Sweeney also has just two homers and four stolen bases. He won’t be playing full-time much longer with numbers like that.

Daric Barton was another disappointing rookie in 2008 from an organization that has a reputation (deservedly so or not) for producing productive Major League players. The catcher-turned-first-baseman had a minor league line of .299/.411/.455 and had always hit for average, although there were questions about the 23 year old’s power potential. In his rookie season in the Majors in ’08, Barton hit for neither power nor average with a line of .226/.327/.348 in 446 at-bats. The struggles may have affected him mentally as he’s hitting just .245/.365/.385 with three homers in 200 at-bats in 2009.

Sean Gallagher, 23, was obtained last season from the Cubs in the Rich Harden trade. Between the two clubs, he posted a 5.15 ERA (4.48 FIP) with 118 hits allowed in 115.1 innings of work. He also posted rates of 4.53 BB/9 and 8.04 K/9. He’s bounced between the Majors and the minors in 2009 with an 8.16 ERA in six MLB games and a 1.75 ERA in five triple-A starts. His batting-average-allowed has jumped from .266 to .342 over the past year.

Relievers Brad Ziegler and Joey Devine were godsends for the Oakland bullpen in 2008 but 2009 has been a different story, especially for Devine. The former Braves prospect finally harnessed his pitches – a 2.96 BB/9 in 2008 compared to more than one walk allowed per inning in his previous three big-league attempts – and posted an ERA of just 0.59 (1.97 FIP). He also allowed just 23 hits in 45.2 innings of work. Unfortunately, Devine blew out his elbow and underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this season. Ziegler rose from obscurity to save 11 games in 2008 for Oakland, while also posting a 1.06 ERA in 59.2 innings. This season the groundball pitcher has been good but not great, in part due to a BABIP jump from .246 to .351. Left-handers are also hitting .367 against him.

Chris Davis burst upon the scene last season as young player with immense power. He hit .285/.331/.549 with 17 homers and 23 doubles in 295 at-bats while playing mostly third base. Davis, 23, also posted a strikeout rate of 29.8 K%. Fast-forward one season and the left-handed batter is now playing first base and hitting just .204/.261/.422 with 12 home runs in 206 at-bats. His strikeout rate has jumped to a disturbing 45.6 K%. Davis has also lost 6% off his line-drive rate, which is down to 19.6%, and his BABIP has gone from .353 to .300.

Brandon Boggs, 26, was called upon to fill a part-time role in 2008. The outfielder hit just .226/.333/.399 but he appeared in 101 games. His strikeout rate was a dismal 32.9 K%. He did, though, show some power potential with an ISO of .173. Boggs has spent the majority of 2009 in triple-A where his power has all but dried up as he has an ISO rate of just .086. He’s also hitting just .278/.405/.364 in 162 at-bats. Another part-time player, infielder German Duran hit .231/.275/.350 with three home runs in 143 at-bats in the Majors in 2008. This season, he’s battled injuries and is hitting just .149/.185/.207 in 87 triple-A at-bats.

David Murphy’s rookie season was not as noisy as Davis’, but Murphy has had a much more consistent career to this point. The 27-year-old outfielder posted a line of .275/.321/.465 with 15 homers in 415 at-bats in 2008. He also posted a walk rate of 7.0% and a strikeout rate of 16.9 K%. In 2009, Murphy’s power has dropped and he’s hitting .259/.344/.393 with three homers in 135 at-bats (including .167 vs southpaws). He’s seen his walk rate increase to 11.8 BB%, while his strikeout rate has also risen to 24.4 K%, which is not good considering his drop in power production (ISO from .190 to .133).

A former Braves prospect, 23-year-old Matt Harrison had a rough introduction to the big leagues in his rookie season in 2008. He posted a 5.49 ERA (5.18 FIP) and allowed 100 hits in 83.2 innings of work. Harrison’s walk rate was 3.33 BB/9 but he struck out just 4.52 K/9. In 2009, the southpaw has posted a 5.43 ERA (4.68 FIP) in 54.2 innings and he’s allowed 68 hits. His walk rate is down to 2.63 BB/9 and his strikeout rate is just 4.77 K/9. Opponents also has a healthy 23.3 LD% against Harrison.

Infielders Sean Rodriguez and Brandon Wood are both loaded with potential but they have had difficulties breaking into everyday roles in the Majors. Rodriguez, 24, has good pop for a middle infielder (.300+ ISO in parts of two triple-A seasons), but he projects as a big league utility player due to his contact issues (33.2 K% in 205 triple-A at-bats in 2009). Wood, on the other hand, has massive power potential for an infielder but he too has contact issues (26.8 K% in 2008). With 69 home runs during parts of three seasons in triple-A, Wood, 24, needs to opportunity to finally show once and for all if he has what it takes to play everyday in the Majors. He hit just .200/.224/.327 in 55 MLB games in 2008.

Jose Arredondo had a very successful year in 2008 giving hope that he would one day fill the closer’s role that Francisco Rodriguez departed from after last season. In 2008, Arredondo went 10-2 with a 1.62 ERA while allowing just 42 hits in 61 innings of work. He posted rates of 3.25 BB/9 and 8.11 K/9. The right-hander, though, did not make in through the month of June in 2009 before being demoted to the minors after posting a 5.55 ERA and allowing 28 hits in 24.1 innings of work.

Curtis Granderson hit a pair of home runs last night, giving him 16 on the season. That’s the same amount of home runs as Prince Fielder and Justin Morneau have. He’s seven bombs away from tying his career high for long balls in a season, and we’re not even to July yet.

The home runs have come at the expense of his doubles and triples. He has just nine non-HR extra base hits, compared to 39 last year and 61 (!) the year before. Usually, when you see an uptick in home runs accompanied by a significant decline in doubles and triples, you can see a big spike in HR/FB rate that explains the differences. However, here’s Granderson’s HR/FB rates by year:

2006: 11.7%
2007: 10.9%
2008: 12.3%
2009: 14.8%

Yea, 15% is a little higher than 12%, but this isn’t an increase of the magnitude that I was expecting. I was thinking something more along the lines of Raul Ibanez, who had a 10.7% HR/FB rate last and is at 25.3% this year. Granderson has just seen a modest change rather than a dramatic one, at least in terms of how far his fly balls are traveling.

No, the interesting change with Granderson isn’t in the distance of his fly balls, but instead the quantity. He’s basically stopped hitting the ball on the ground, posting a 28.2% GB% that is the sixth lowest in baseball. The change in the loft of his swing has led to significantly more balls in the air.

It hasn’t necessarily made him a better hitter overall, though. After posting a .374 wOBA last year, he’s at .366 in 2009. The fly balls come with a trade-off – more outs. His batting average on balls in play has dropped from .317 last year (and .330 for his career) down to .271, and it’s not just bad luck – extreme flyball hitters simply don’t post high BABIPs, because fly balls turn into outs a lot more often than ground balls do.

The average BABIP for the ten guys with a FB% over 50% is .263. Among that group, Granderson’s .271 BABIP actually ranks fourth, well ahead of guys like Dan Uggla, Jason Giambi, and Chris Young. As long as Granderson keeps hitting the ball in the air this often, we shouldn’t expect regression from his BABIP. However, the Tigers will probably take a little bit of a drop in batting average if Granderson hits 30+ home runs this year. Either way, he’s still a terrific player.

The Blue Jays got off to a very hot start this season, in spite of pitching injuries, thanks largely to the performances of both Aaron Hill and Marco Scutaro. The latter is an average hitter at best while the former is known more for glovework than offensive contribution. Absent from much of their success were the two hitters considered to be the cream of the Blue Jays crop: Vernon Wells and Alex Rios. To date, Wells has posted a Jimmy Rollins-esque .241/.299/.367 line while Rios sits at .278/.336/.454. Granted, Rios’s line still produces a .350 wOBA but this slash line seems quite low for a player expected to break out into MVP-level production before each and every season.

Last year, Rios added 5.5 wins above replacement primarily due to incredible defensive work accrued in both right- and centerfield. Playing centerfield helped reduce the number of runs docked in his positional adjustment, all told making Rios around a +20 run fielder. A .350 wOBA coupled with defensive marks like that makes for one heck of a player, but UZR hasn’t been as sunny on Rios this season and his offense has not improved. The .337/.461 OBP/SLG from a year ago is virtually identical to the .336/.454 on his page as we speak. Though +2.3 runs is a solid UZR mark, Rios is not going to have the benefit of seeing his positional adjustment lessened from playing centerfield, meaning he is on pace for around 3 wins above replacement as opposed to the 5-6 expected of him.

If this is what type of player Rios is going to be, fine, he is still putting up pretty solid numbers, but let’s all can it with the breakout talk, expecting him to be something out of his realm. Wells, on the other hand, is perplexing. I wrote in this space last year about how his reputation led to ignorance about his numbers, with many thinking Wells is a perennial 25-25 player with incredible centerfield defense. In actuality, Wells hasn’t surpassed a .900 OPS since 2003, the only season in which he reached that plateau. For his career, Wells has a .281/.330/.473 line, which would be really great for a guy like Shane Victorino, but not a former all-star thought of as highly as Wells.

ZiPS doesn’t see Wells improving all that much this season with the bat, ultimately finishing with a .254/.310/.400 line. The projected 15 HR and 18 SB help elevate the wOBA to .316, but a below average rate like that coupled with a UZR perhaps on pace to be worse than -15 runs makes Wells a replacement player. In a full season in 2007, Wells produced just 1.2 wins. He added another 0.8 more last year albeit in just 108 games. This year: -1.0 wins. Rios is proving that he can be a good, not fantastic player, while Wells is showing that he does not deserve a starting spot in the big leagues, let alone one at such an important position.

It will be tough for the Jays to continue to compete in such a tough division, especially with their entire pre-season starting rotation on the shelf, but productivity increases from both Wells and Rios will be needed to have any hope whatsoever.

Sometimes trades fail to work out immediately. Dave Dombrowski traded the farm prior to the 2008 season for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis – the perceived final pieces of a championship puzzle – only to see both play well shy of expectations. For the first time in four years, Cabrera posted an OPS below .900 – not quite the fall from grace Willis experienced, but also not the alpha dog Detroit desired. For a multitude of other reasons, the Tigers collapsed around the pair, and failed to qualify for the playoffs.

It’s fitting that as the Tigers bounce back, so does Cabrera; who is experiencing a sophomore bump during his second season in the Motor City. His .395 wOBA falls in line with seasons of the past. Not only is he hitting well through component measures like homers and OPS, but Cabrera is literally hitting the ball hard. Hit Tracker Online lists Cabrera as current “Golden Sledgehammer” leader, meaning Cabrera’s long balls are averaging a longer distance than anyone else in the league. Cabrera’s dozen dingers have an average standard distance of 423.7 feet, a full 60 inches further than runner-up Michael Cuddyer.

Any talk of American League pitchers mastering Cabrera is over. His walk rates are creeping upwards and his amount of whiffing borders near a career low. A .341 BABIP rarely constitutes being “below expectations”, but this is true in Cabrera’s case. From 2006-2008 Cabrera maintained a higher average BABIP as well as a higher ISO. The difference seems to arise from an increased amount of groundballs hit. These are leading to an influx of additional singles and a decrease in doubles; buoying Cabrera’s batting average while leaving his slugging emptier than usual. Given his homeruns, it seems apparent Cabrera still has a fantastic amount of power, so at some point the doubles should come.

Cabrera should breeze past the four win mark and could make a legitimate run at five wins. He won’t quite match the total value attained during his seasons as a third baseman – the first base positional penalty just won’t allow it – still, Detroit will be hard pressed to find much fault in Cabrera’s 2009.

With the advent of Pitch F/x and the dissemination of velocity and pitch type data into the public over the last few years, and now leading to stuff like the linear weight values we have for specific pitches on the site here, it’s becoming easier and easier to figure out why some pitchers are successful and others are not. We’re able to quantify things that we’ve never been able to get a handle on before, and the analysis that’s being done with pitch data right now is tremendous.

However, even with all those advances, there’s still one glaring question that I don’t know that anyone has the answer to – how the hell is Mark DiFelice getting people out?

You probably have seen DiFelice at some point now that he’s thrown 45 innings as a major leaguer over the last two season and pitched for Italy in the World Baseball Classic this spring, where he threw four shutout innings against Venezuela. That wasn’t his only taste of success – since coming to the big leagues, he’s posted a 1.81 BB/9 and a 9.07 K/9, which have led to a sparkly 2.01 ERA. He’s been one of the reasons the Brewers bullpen has been holding leads all year.

But how he does it is beyond me. Here’s a Pitch F/x chart of what he throws in a normal game.

There’s 29 blobs in there representing pitches from DiFelice in that specific game (May 10th versus the Cubs). Pitch F/x labeled most of them sliders, while it called a few others change-ups, but in reality, it’s just a cut fastball thrown so slowly that the algorithm doesn’t recognize it as such. If you want to see the pitch, there’s a .gif over at Driveline Mechanics.

That’s his arsenal. An 80-84 MPH cut fastball. That’s it. He throws that pitch, and that pitch only, 99% of the time. He also has thrown this loopy 72 MPH curveball a couple of times this year, but practically every pitch he throws, in every game, is this low-80s fastball with some tailing action away from right-handers. I faced guys in high school who had better stuff than this.

However, whatever DiFelice does to his cut fastball, or however he hides the ball, or whatever voodoo spell he chants before he pitches, it works wonders against right-handed bats. Here’s his career splits since joining Milwaukee:

Vs RHB: .149/.192/.202, 120 PA
Vs LHB: .321/.357/.717, 56 PA

Opposing right-handers have a .393 OPS against DiFelice. Opposing left-handers have a 1.074 OPS against him. He basically turns every RH bat he faces into a pitcher, and every left-handed bat into Albert Pujols. This is the most ridiculous platoon split I have ever seen. Yes, it’s a small sample size, but given what DiFelice throws, we’d expect left handed major league batters to use him as batting practice, so that part is likely not an anomaly.

Can he really keep pitching like the best pitcher ever against right-handed bats while throwing one pitch in the low-80s, though? Everything I’ve ever been taught about baseball says no, but at this point, we’re on our second year of him embarrassing high quality bats, and I can’t come up with any reasons why he can’t keep doing this. Perhaps the real question shouldn’t be “how is Difelice getting people out”, but instead “why aren’t the Brewers forcing every pitcher they have to learn how to throw that thing?”

Over the next few days, we’re looking at sophomore, or second-year, players in the Major Leagues. Today’s post is looking at the American League East division. Yesterday, we looked at the American League Central.

Ian Kennedy came into the Yankees’ system with a reputation of being a pretty good college pitcher, but he was not quite as highly regarded as he had been coming out of high school (in part because he lost a little bit off the fastball). Despite some grumblings that Kennedy had been an overdraft as a first-round draft pick, the right-hander dominated the minor leagues (He has a career 1.96 ERA in the minors). There is a reason, though, that they call it the “Major Leagues” and Kennedy was hit around in 2008. He posted an 8.17 ERA and allowed 50 hits in just 39.2 innings or work. His walk rate, which was 2.8 BB/9 in the minors, jumped to 5.90 BB/9. Kennedy got off to a solid start in 2009 in four games at triple-A but he then underwent surgery for an aneurysm under his right armpit and will be out until after the All-Star break.

Like Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain was a pretty good college pitcher but he had injuries problems and other teams shied away from him. Big mistake. The Yankees took a risk and have one of the top young arms in baseball, although Chamberlain has still had a few injuries throughout his pro career. In 2008, the right-hander spent time in both the starting rotation and the bullpen. He allowed just 87 hits in 100.1 innings, while posting a 2.60 ERA (2.65 FIP). Chamberlain also posted an excellent strikeout rate at 10.58 K/9. In 2009, he has continued to pitch well, although he has not been as dominant. He has a 3.86 ERA (4.68 FIP) with 56 hits allowed in 63.1 innings of work. His walk rate has risen from 3.50 in 2008 to 4.69 BB/9 in 2009. His strikeout rate has decreased to 8.24 K/9. Chamberlain’s average fastball velocity has decreased each of the past three seasons, from 97 to 95 to 92.4 mph, although part of that can be attributed to spending more time in the starting rotation.

Both Jose Veras and Edwar Ramirez came out of almost nowhere in 2008 to provide much-needed innings for the Yankees’ bullpen. Veras, now 28, allowed 52 hits in 57.2 innings and had a strikeout rate of 9.83 K/9. However, he was just designated for assignment after posting a 5.96 ERA in 2009 and seeing his strikeout rate drop to 6.31 K/9, while also struggling with his control and gopher ball tendencies. Ramirez, also 28, had a 3.90 ERA in 2008 and posted a 3.90 BB/9 rate, as well as a strikeout rate of 10.25 K/9. In 2009, though, he’s regressed to a 5.19 ERA, and rates of 7.79 BB/9 and 8.31 K/9.

As far as first-round picks go, David Purcey has been a huge disappointment. Making his MLB debut at the age of 26, the left-hander posted a 5.54 ERA and allowed 67 hits in 65 innings of work, although he showed some improvements as the year progressed. His rates were 4.02 BB/9 and 8.03 K/9. In 2009, he won an opening-day rotation spot but made just five starts before a demotion to triple-A. In those starts, Purcey allowed a 7.01 ERA, 28 hits in 25.2 innings and posted rates of 6.31 BB/9 and 9.12 K/9.

Southpaw Jesse Carlson was a revelation in 2008 and appeared in 69 games as a rookie. He posted a 2.25 ERA (3.80 FIP) and allowed just 41 hits in 60 innings of work. In 2009, though, Carlson’s ERA has risen to 5.22 (although his FIP is just 3.80) and he’s allowed 31 hits in 29.1 innings. His control is OK (3.15 BB/9 in 2008, 2.76 in 2009) but he hasn’t had the same command of his pitches and his strikeout rate has dropped from 8.25 K/9 in 2008 to 5.83 K/9 this season.

Radhames Liz has a blistering fastball but he’s just one more hard-throwing pitcher that has no idea how to pitch (Daniel Cabrera, anyone?). Liz, 26, was promoted to the Majors in 2008 by the pitching-poor Orioles and was coming off a good half season in the minors, as well as a very good 2007 season at double-A. Liz allowed 99 hits in 84.1 innings, while also posting a 6.72 ERA. He posted rates of 5.44 BB/9 and 6.08 K/9. So far this year, Liz has a 6.09 ERA in triple-A and has a 67.50 ERA in two relief appearances in the Majors. Velocity is not everything.

Another hard thrower, Dennis Sarfate appeared in 57 games for the Orioles as a rookie in 2008. He allowed just 62 hits in 79.2 innings of work and posted rates of 7.00 BB/9 and 9.72 K/9. Sarfate, 28, appeared in just eight games in 2009 and posted an ERA of 6.39 before going on the disabled list with circulation problems in his finger. Right-hander Jim Johnson was also a major contributor to the 2008 bullpen as a rookie. He posted a 2.23 ERA (3.38 FIP) while allowing 54 hits in 68.2 innings of work. In 2009, Johnson, 25, has continued to have success with a 3.07 ERA (3.83 FIP) and 28 hits allowed in 29.1 innings. His strikeout rate has actually risen from 4.98 K/9 in 2008 to 6.14 K/9 in 2009.

A sinker-slider pitcher, Justin Masterson has bounced between the starting rotation and bullpen for the Red Sox during the past two seasons with good success in both roles. The right-hander induces a lot of groundballs and gets his fair share of strikeouts in the process. He posted a 3.16 ERA (4.69 FIP) while allowing 68 hits in 88.1 innings of work in 2008. In 2009, the 24 year old has a 3.88 ERA (3.68 FIP) with 56 hits allowed in 53.1 innings. Masterson has also seen his BABIP allowed increase from .243 in 2008 to .332 in 2009. His walk rate has decreased from 4.08 in 2008 to 3.04 BB/9 this season.

Clay Buchholz burst upon the scene in 2007 but struggled during his rookie season in 2008 by allowing 93 hits in 76 innings of work. He posted a 6.75 ERA and posted a strikeout rate of 4.86 BB/9. He’s really turned things around in triple-A this season, although there is no opening in the Red Sox Major League rotation. Buchholz has a 1.75 ERA (3.27 FIP) in triple-A with 40 hits allowed in 67 innings. His walk rate is just 2.01 BB/9.

Jed Lowrie did a nice job as an injury replacement in 2008 for the Red Sox. He had a triple-slash line of .258/.339/.400 with two homers in 260 at-bats. His strikeout rate of 26.2 K% was a little high for an infielder with modest pop, but he filled in at three positions and provided solid defense. After just five games in 2009 Lowrie required wrist surgery. He’s currently rehabbing.

It was hard for Jacoby Ellsbury to build off his debut in 2007, but he had a solid – albeit unspectacular – first full season in Majors in 2008. He hit .280/.336/.394 with 50 stolen bases in 61 attempts. Ellsbury’s triple-slash line in 2009 is .306/.351/.383 and he’s stolen 25 bases in 31 attempts. He’s also trimmed his strikeout rate from 14.4 to 8.9 K/9, while maintaining almost the same walk rate at 6.1 BB%. Ellsbury is proving to be a very solid player, but he’s probably not a star.

Evan Longoria had a huge 2008 season and won the American League Rookie of the Year award. He produced a triple-slash line of .272/.343/.531 and hit 27 home runs. So far this year, Longoria has been even better with a line of .305/.387/.584 with 14 home runs and 58 RBI. His walk rate has increased from 9.3 in 2008 to 11.4 BB% in 2009. His strikeout rate has stayed almost the same at 26.5 K%. Longoria also plays a solid third base. He should be a mainstay in the Rays lineup for many years to come.

Matt Joyce spent the 2008 season with Detroit and hit .252/.339/.510 with 12 homers in 242 at-bats. Traded to Tampa Bay for Edwin Jackson prior to the 2009 season, Joyce, 24, has regressed and has spent most of the season in triple-A. Jackson, though, has had a breakout season for Detroit.