Earlier this week, I took a look at the American League Rookie of the Year race. There were a number of deserving candidates for the award, led by Elvis Andrus of Texas and Rick Porcello of Detroit. Unfortunately, the competition for the year-end award in the National League is close to being a one-horse race at this point – and none of the players are having a season nearly as good as either Andrus or Porcello.

St. Louis’ Colby Rasmus has a firm grasp on the Rookie of the Year award despite having just an OK season, so far. His current line is .265/.323/.453 with six home runs in 170 at-bats. Rasmus showed good patience at the plate in April with nine walks in 18 games, but he’s walked only three times since… in almost a month and a half. His overall walk rate is down to 6.6 BB%, while his strikeout rate is at a reasonable 20 K%.

While Rasmus’ walks have decreased, his success at the plate has increased – at least in May. After bottoming out with a .212 average in May, Rasmus is heating up with the summer weather. So far this month, the 22-year-old outfielder is just four hits shy of his total for the entire month of May. His 14 hits in just nine games has been good for a .452 average.

Interestingly, he has used his good speed to swipe just one base this season, in as many attempts. In previous minor league seasons, Rasmus has nabbed as many as 27 bases. Defensively, Rasmus plays a very good outfield and he has plus range and a powerful arm.

Rasmus is still young and he has a long way to go to become a star player in the Majors. The talent is there, but there is also some lingering concern over his disappointing 2008 season in triple-A.

I am not a fan of Japanese veteran pitchers being considered for the Rookie of the Year awards. But because of the lack of options in the National League, right-hander Kenshin Kawakami is going to receive some attention. The soon-to-be 34-year-old pitcher spent 10 seasons in the Japanese Central League and twice won 17 games.

He had a rude welcome to Major League Baseball as he posted a 7.06 through April during the first four starts of his North American career. His overall numbers were not bad, but five home runs definitely hurt. Kawakami rebounded in May and posted a 3.03 ERA over five starts – and he did not allow a ball to leave the yard during that stretch.

He has been hittable throughout the year with 65 hits allowed in 64.1 innings of work. His control has been OK, although not as good as it was in Japan, and he has a walk rate 3.50 BB/9. His strikeout rate is a respectable 7.13 K/9. Opponents’ contact rate against Kawakami (79.5%) is actually lower than it is against Toronto’s Roy Halladay (79.7%), a legitimate Cy Young award candidate in the American League.

The good news for the Rookie of the Year race in the National League is that there is still plenty of time for a player such as Milwaukee’s Mat Gamel to get hot and run away with the award. Or perhaps someone like Jordan Schafer, of the Atlanta Braves, can return from his exile to the minors with a renewed approach. If Jordan Zimmermann can gain a little more consistency in Washington, then he is another candidate to consider, even if he does play for a pretty bad club.

A few weeks ago, David rolled out pitch type linear weights, which gives run values to each type of pitch that is thrown. This is a tremendous resource, as it gives us the ability to quantify the difference in value pitchers have been getting from their arsenal and to look for trends that could help us identify quality pitchers going forward.

Well, it went under the radar a bit, but David has updated the leaderboards to include this data, so you can now sort by pitch types and see which pitchers are having the most or least success with various pitch types. Not surprisingly, Justin Verlander has gotten the most value out of his fastball this year, as he’s dialing up his four seamer and racking up the strikeouts with it. His power fastball, thrown up in the zone, is a true out pitch.

However, did you know Verlander does not rank number one in value per 100 fastball thrown? If you haven’t already checked out the leaderboard, you will never guess who is at the top of the list.

Tim Wakefield.

No, I’m not kidding. The knuckleballer is getting better results from his fastball, on a per pitch basis, than any other pitcher in baseball this year. His fastball averages 72 MPH, or about what you’d face in a small private high school league, and he’s getting more value his heater than guys who throw 100.

You will never need more evidence than this that pitching really is all about disrupting a hitters timing. Wakefield’s fastball, on it’s own, is not a major league quality pitch. He doesn’t throw it with velocity or a ton of movement, but because he’s set it up with knuckleballs, an offering that should be a total meatball is acting like a true out pitch.

This is something to keep in mind when you look at Pitch F/x data or scouting reports. We’ve come a long way in our ability to quantify what a pitcher throws, but there’s still a hugely undiscovered realm of pitching that has to do with varying speeds and movement within an at-bat, and the value that can come from timing disruption.

Ultimate Zone Rating, created by Mitchel Lichtman several years ago and available free of charge on this very site, is a fantastic achievement in the world of baseball analytics, quantifying the logical intuition of what constitutes good or bad fielding by measuring the BIP-outs conversion rate in various different zones for each position. The data even breaks down into several different components, evaluating a player’s arm, ability to turn double plays, his ability to prevent runs by not making errors, as well as his range. One area of the data that gets overlooked far too frequently, though, that deserves to be mentioned more often, is that UZR calculates fielding abilities relative to the league average.

Sure, many of us know and understand that a +5 UZR means five runs better than the average player at that position, but grasping that the data is relative should force us to ask a secondary question upon glancing at a player’s results: did the league itself get better?

For instance, if a player turned 50% of the balls hit his way in a particular zone into outs in Year #1, when the league converted 40%, and then held stagnant at 50% in Year #2, when the league increased its conversion rate to 50%, the player didn’t change but his UZR would decrease. His actual overall ability to convert outs in that zone did not erode in any way, shape or form, per se, but his skills no longer looked as shiny because the talent level of the league at this specific position increased.

I like to refer to this as The Jimmy Rollins Conundrum, when his UZR marks hovered right around the league average in 2002 and 2005 despite playing a very, very solid shortstop. It could very well be that the eyes of myself and many other Phillies fans deceived us, with our scouting overrating Rollins’ fielding, but it seems that very few ever wonder if the fluctuations for a player in a given season are direct results of an improved league. Looking at Rollins in 2005, it is a bit tough to tell why the UZR fell to 0.8 from 4-5 runs above average the previous two years, before increasing to 6-7 runs over the next two seasons.

His double play runs were down as were his runs prevented by not making errors, but his overall number of errors in opportunities were consistent with the sandwiching seasons. Add in that his range was identical and that he would revert back to previously established norms in the double play and error runs departments and it stands to reason that perhaps one major reason for the lower UZR dealt with shortstops across the league improving in this area. I’m not suggesting this is the only reason, as we have seen fielders have down years before for one reason or another, but rather shedding light on a question we should be asking when looking at these numbers.

SO, moral of the story: don’t always assume that an increase or decrease in UZR is solely on the player, as the skill level of the league may have something to do with fluctuations as well.

Now that Strasburg-mania is cooling down, the next top amateur player will find out his destination over the next month. 16-year-old shortstop Miguel Angel Sano has been profiled heavily over the past few months. At 6’3” Sano is expected to move to a corner as he ages. His bat appears to be special and has drawn some comparisons to former shortstops like Gary Sheffield.

Most of Sano’s value comes from his age and projected bat. Defensively he has a strong arm, but the athleticism required to stick at shortstop is probably going to be lost with a few more inches, assuming he isn’t physically maxed out. Some of the previous top bonus babies include Wily Mo Pena and Joel Guzman. Neither became a star, but both helped their signing franchise in some fashion or another. Pena recorded a positive WAR during his time in Cincinnati and was later traded for Bronson Arroyo. Guzman has been a massive bust, but was essentially dealt straight up for Julio Lugo, who later became two first round draft picks.

Lack of superstardom hasn’t stopped teams from investing big money bonuses to foreign prospects. Just last year the Athletics signed Michael Ynoa for a record breaking 4.25 million dollars and the Reds signed outfielder Yorman Rodriguez for a positional player record, one Sano should break. Kiley McDaniel has listed the Pirates as the frontrunners, with teams like the Rays and Orioles also interested in the youngster. McDaniel also implies that the Pirates pick at number four, who we now know by the name of Tony Sanchez, could be selected with cost in mind. Sanchez certainly fits that bill.

Is Sano worth the investment? The victor of the Sano sweepstakes is probably going to pay between 3 and 4 million for his services. Of course you run the risk of Sano burning out on baseball before ever taking a major league swing, but don’t you run that same risk for just about any amateur talent? I’ve taken the last three years worth of top five picks and their signing bonuses and created a created, illustrating how Sano’s costs may stack up to those of the top amateur talents:

Coincidentally, the cheapest pick has been selection four; the same pick the Pirates held Tuesday night and seemingly held true to the recent trend. The most expensive pick, outside of the first, has been number five thanks to Matt Wieters and Buster Posey. The average across the board is 4.28 million, which would set another international signing record.

Teams must answer whether Sano would be a top five selection in his first eligible draft, if the answer is yes; they should put forth the money. If the answer is no, they need to evaluate where he would fall. Remember, this is 4.28 million in closed negotiations; Sano is on the open market, in theory that would inflate his price.

Sano won’t be hitting homeruns off Tropicana Field’s outer walls or on Sports Illustrated covers like Bryce Harper but expect to hear a lot more about him in the next four weeks.

Part One

Last night, I looked at the macro level of Jarrod Washburn’s improvement against left-handed batters and pointed out the dramatic increase in swinging strikes that he had achieved against them this season compared to years past. It seemed to be the result of his added two-seamer, as his missed bats on pitches in the 87.5 to 92.5 mph range had noticeably increased.

But is it just that? I wanted to see if there was also anything to be found in the location data and that investigation brought forth these charts, 2008 pitches to LHB on the left, 2009 on the right.

Well, aside from the fewer pitches in the 2009 dataset, these two pictures look near identical. There might be some trace differences, but I seriously doubt any of those could be playing much impact in the huge jump in effectiveness that Washburn has seen to date.

Location shot down, I took one more stab at pinpointing the cause. On the theory that with a new two-seamer in the mix, hitters were seeing a wider distribution of speeds and that was putting them on guard more, I expanded my first graph to include all pitches to left-handers this season compared to 2008

Nope, not really. It is a fairly close match in terms of speed distributions. What’s left? Movement. I do not have a good way to visualize movement data, so apologies for the lack of readability here. I broke pitches into four categories, whether they were swung and missed at or not and their starting speeds since the above histograms demonstrate that Washburn has a break between pitch types around the 85 mph mark. The first number is the average largest deviation, in inches, of the pitch from the straight trajectory*. The second number is the average angle of that break. To visualize that, draw a compass rose, 0 is south, +90 is west and -90 is east. The final number is the sample size.

Pitches missed, 2008, under 85: 10.1, 9.0, 41
Pitches missed, 2009, under 85: 09.9, 8.8, 25

Pitches !missed, 2008, under 85: 9.5, 6.2, 271
Pitches !missed, 2009, under 85: 9.9, 7.9, 94

Pitches missed, 2008, over 85: 4.7, -12.6, 11
Pitches missed, 2009, over 85: 4.7, -16.8, 23

Pitches !missed, 2008, over 85: 4.8, -15.6, 381
Pitches !missed, 2009, over 85: 4.7, -16.9, 172

Washburn’s slurvey breaking pitches certainly are not moving dramatically differently than before. Among his swinging strikes, the two rows are insignificantly different. There is a big more break and run shown overall as the second pairing shows, but nothing huge. Now granted we have a small sample, but we do have what looks like a potentially meaningful change in the third and fourth pairings. The group of fastballs and fastball-type pitches all seem to be moving more in on the left-handed hitters this season and particularly among pitches that are missed.

Still, I am not anxious to jump to any conclusions on that. We are talking about a four compass degree of difference in that third pairing, which does hint toward the increased use of a two-seamer, but interestingly enough, the length of the breaks are still similar when two-seamers are known for generating more movement.

*Straight trajectory is thus: take the two points where the pitch is released and where the pitch crossed the home plane. Connect the two points with a line.

At the end of April, fans in Kansas City were pretty excited. The Royals were 12-11, just a half game out of first place, thanks to the pitching of Zack Greinke and some surprising offensive performances from John Buck, Alberto Callaspo, Mark Teahen, Coco Crisp, and Willie Bloomquist. They had a +13 run differential and stood as one of the early surprise stories of the American League.

Five weeks later, they have the worst record in the American League. Now 24-33 with a -46 run differential, the Royals winning percentage is higher only than the Washington Nationals. If the 2010 MLB draft were today, the Royals would pick second. That’s quite a fall in a short period of time. What happened?

An offensive reality check. Remember those five guys who were hitting better than expected in April? Here’s their month by month slash lines for April, May, and June.

Buck: .300/.370/.700, .159/.260/.227, N/A
Callaspo: .379/.432/.575, .260/.315/.400, .239/.259/.269
Teahen: .300/.391/.488, .273/.327/.414, .200/.200/.320
Crisp: .247/.371/.494, .220/.316/.305, .100/.250/.100
Bloomquist: .333/.439/.424, .259/.308/.387, .333/.368/.444

Turns out that hoping for continued all-star performances from a collection of role players isn’t a recipe for success. Who knew?

When you add in the nothing contributions that the Royals are getting from Jose Guillen, Mike Jacobs, David DeJesus, and Mike Aviles, you have an offense that simply isn’t going to score enough runs to win baseball games. And, unfortunately, this group of non-hitters can’t play defense particularly well, either – the Royals have the fifth lowest team UZR in baseball, which dovetails nicely with their six lowest team wOBA.

Add it up, and the Royals have gotten a total of +2.2 wins from their position players this year. Only the White Sox have gotten less from their everyday guys. The pitching has been strong (+9 wins, #2 in baseball), but despite the cliches about the inflated value of pitching, you can’t win with worst-in-the-league position players.

At some point in the next month or so, the Royals are going to have to throw in the towel on the 2009 season, and when they get to that point, they should just dump Guillen and Jacobs. Their salaries are a sunk cost, and they’re standing in the way of the team getting better. You can’t rebuild with replacement level players making millions of dollars, and unfortunately, the Royals have too many guys that fit that category.

When Pablo Sandoval made his major league debut last season, three days after turning 22 years old, Giants fans held their collective breaths, holding out hope that Sandoval’s gaudy minor league numbers would translate into solid success at the big league level. Everyone knew the guy could rake but did not necessarily have confidence that the skillset could surpass the Quad-A plateau. Prior to the callup, Sandoval had posted a composite wOBA right around .415 in 112 games between Single- and Double-A. The team was not that high on developing Pablo as a catcher, especially with Buster Posey in the system, but his numbers suggested that his bat could play at one of the infield corners.

In 41 major league games last season, Sandoval hit .345/.357/.490, with a .361 wOBA. A regression seemed inevitable for his .367 BABIP, especially given his nutty plate discipline marks; in a 25.4% league, Sandoval swung at 53.4% of his pitches out of the zone. He swung at 77% of his pitches in the zone, again above the league average of 65%, but also made an inordinate amount of contact. Pablo didn’t walk all that much but he did not fall prey to the strikeout that frequently either. One of the most curious aspects of his season involved defense. At 5’11”, 246 lbs, Sandoval looks like he could never succeed with the glove, but a +2.1 UZR at 1B and +1.8 UZR at 3B helped raise Pablo’s overall production level to +1.3 wins.

Sandoval has played 52 more games this season, and it seems that last year’s offensive output was no fluke. In 208 plate appearances, Sandoval has a .318 BA, but an almost identical .356/.497 OBP/SLG and .363 wOBA. His BABIP has dropped subtly to .350, which helps explains the lower batting average (less singles) but also signals that he could be one of those hitters with consistently high marks in this area. Again, I’m not basing any definitive conclusions here with just 93 games of data, but it wouldn’t surprise me in the least, given what we have seen, if this hypothesis ends up correct.

The defense has trailed off a bit, but at worst portends league average ability at the corners. If we assume that Sandoval will average around 145 games/season, then he has played the equivalent of 65% of a full season, amassing +2.4 wins in the process.

ZiPS projects a .340 wOBA from here on out, putting his bottom line right around .301/.334/.479, with a .351 wOBA, similar in the OBP/SLG departments to Torii Hunter, JJ Hardy and Mike Cameron from a year ago. He will never win a gold glove (although he might if his offensive production remains this high) or be lauded for defensive ability, but league average glovework at a corner coupled with a well above average bat for a 22-yr old with 2.4 wins to his name in under a full season is pretty remarkable.

When the Dodgers signed Orlando Hudson in late February for 3.38 million the only risks involved were Hudson’s ability to pass a physical and whether they could still find playing time for Blake Dewitt. Barring injury, Hudson’s skills were unlikely to erode over one off-season to the point where he would become a poor one-year signing. Add in a price tag that left the Dodgers paying for fewer than one win above replacement level, and Ned Colletti used his budget to upgrade his lineup once more.

Hudson has been fantastic. Uncharacteristically, Hudson’s slash line is .315/.396/.444. This is a player who recorded an average line of .294/.365/.448 over the past three seasons. A .368 BABIP has lead to the batting average inflation with an influx of added singles. Those extra hits have done little to help his power production, but along with a career high walk rate have improved his on-base percentage by more than enough to make up the deficit. Plus, it’s probable that Hudson will showcase some more power heading forward given recent ISO:

2006: .168
2007: .147
2008: .145
2009: .129

ZiPS has Hudson batting .297/.372/.437 for the rest of the season, or about eight runs. Combined with his offensive accomplishments to date and Hudson is looking at nearly 20 runs over the span of a single season; easily a career best.

Hudson isn’t the glove demon he once was with the Jays, but his -7.5 UZR/150 is essentially the same as last year despite some differences in the component factors. For one, his double play prowess has returned to above average levels. Hudson’s range has went south, but his sure handiness when he does get to balls is about as well as you would expect.

Add in the playing time and positional adjustments and Hudson is looking at his best season in half a decade. If that’s the case, he will have earned nearly five times what the Dodgers paid him in base salary. That’s a fantastic return on a relatively low risk signing. I don’t think the team that signs the (then) 32-year-old Hudson to a longer contract this off-season will have the same luck.

Jarrod Washburn is experienceing a rather out of ordinary year to date. His 3.07 ERA screams early season fluke, but his FIP has improved from the high 4s to 3.41. Sure, some of that is improved prevention of home runs, but not nearly all of it. Jarrod Washburn has certainly benefited from his improved outfield defense. Just look at his batting average on balls in play amongst fly balls and line drives.
2009: .356
2007-8: .395

and on fly balls only
2009: .131
2007-8: .179

That is a significant boon to any pitcher. But Washburn has not just been coasting on the laurels of his defense either. Remarkably, at the age of 34, Washburn has improved himself as a pitcher as well, notably upping his swinging strike rate by over a point compared to his previous years as a Mariner. Where are those extra missed bats coming from? Lefties.

SwStr% vs LHB
2009: 14.9
2007-8: 8.5

SwStr% vs RHB
2009: 4.4
2007-8: 4.9

The RHB is so small a difference as to be within the same mean based on our sample sizes, but look at the gap against left-handed batters! Further drilling down into the swinging strikes to lefties, I present this:

In 2008, Jarrod Washburn lived off his breaking ball to miss bats from left-handers. In 2009, it is a pretty even split between his cutter/fastball (19) and his offspeed stuff (22). Of the offspeed pitches, based on spin rates, it looks like seven changeups and 15 slurvey things. It certainly appears the Washburn’s slower fastball (whatever you wish to call it) and his 4-seamer are likely candidates for his increased success against left-handers.

It’s 6:00 pm – do you know where your blue chip prospect is?

I’ll be chipping in with comments as we go here in the post. Feel free to leave your reactions in the comments below.

Pre-draft

If John Hart is special assistant to Jon Daniels, how is he supposed to advise Daniels while on TV?

I’m a Jim Callis fan, but shouldn’t he be a little bit more excited about Baseball America’s Christmas Day?

Also, can we just start picking please?

Selig is so terrible at public speaking. Oy vey.

We’re all going to be relieved when this pick is over, Ben. Talk about dragging out the inevitable.

#1. Washington – Stephen Strasburg, RHP

To the surprise of no one. We’ll find out how much he signs for on August 17th.

#2. Seattle – Dustin Ackley, 1B/CF

If you weren’t aware, I like this kid quite a bit. Early career Darin Erstad was a terrific player. A very safe, +3 to +4 win talent with some upside beyond that. Despite the talk about this being the Strasburg draft, Ackley would fit in well at the top of any draft.

#3. San Diego – Donovon Tate, OF

When Bud didn’t appear, was it wrong of me to hope he’d been kidnapped?

The comparisons to Cameron Maybin aren’t that far off base, but he probably has a bit more power and less speed. San Diego needs a premium position player, but he’s not going to get to Petco quickly.

#4. Pittsburgh – Tony Sanchez, C

Jorge? What?

As for the Pirates pick, I don’t know what to say. They insisted they weren’t going to go cheap, but are taking a guy because he’ll sign for less than the 20 guys who should go ahead of him on talent. I like Neil Huntington and the staff they have there in Pittsburgh, but I don’t get it.

Also, I grew up watching Harold Reynolds and loved watching him play, but his reasoning for the Tate pick was hilarious – “the Padres are one of the most boring teams in baseball to watch.” I’m sure picking an 18-year-old who won’t get to the majors until 2014 will make their games more exciting.

#5. Baltimore – Matt Hobgood, RHP

The Orioles hit gold by spending money on Matt Wieters, but didn’t want to do it again this year, so they took a good HS pitching prospect rather than a really good one in order to save some money. Personally, I don’t like taking HS arms this high unless they’re elite arms, and I don’t get the feeling that Hobgood is. Lots of risk with all 18 year olds. Need a lot of upside to offset that risk.

Also, the A’s Twitter feed is hilarious.

#6. San Francisco – Zack Wheeler, RHP

This pick probably breaks the Braves heart, who love them some local kids. The Giants reportedly wanted a hitter, but there wasn’t one worth taking here, so they went with the prep arm that every scout I talk to loves. The fact that he’ll sign makes him a legit top 10 prospect. The Giants depth of pitching is scary.

Does it surprise anyone else that Bud Selig still thinks we’re in the 20th century?

#7. Atlanta – Mike Minor, LHP

I am not a fan. This is a signability pick all the way. A low-upside lefty with good command, but the stuff isn’t great. He’s a back-end starter. Think Ricky Romero.

#8. Cincinnati – Mike Leake, RHP

Oh, man, Zack Wheeler. I’m sorry. Please never do another interview again.

I love Mike Leake. This pick breaks a lot of hearts. Leake’s a great command groundball guy who can pound the strike zone and knows how to pitch. The stuff isn’t as great as some of the other arms, but he’s a better pitcher than all of them. He’s got the kind of package that you look for in an innings eater, and this is a great selection for the Reds.

#9. Detroit – Jacob Turner, RHP

The Tigers live up to their reputation, taking the big arm who wants a lot of money. David Chadd hit pay dirt with Rick Porcello in a similar scenario, and Tigers fans have to hope Turner can repeat what Porcello has done. Big time fastball, which Detroit loves. Probably won’t get to the majors at age 20, but he’s got more upside than all the other non-Strasburg pitchers taken so far. Lots of risk, as always, but if the Tigers can get him signed, they’ll have to be happy with how this worked out.

#10. Washington – Drew Storen, RHP

Gotta love Strasburg tossing out nine cliches in the same sentence. These interviews are so useless.

Washington has to take a guy who will sign here, since they don’t get compensation for the pick if they can’t strike a deal. Storen should be a fairly easy sign, and Washington thinks they can turn him back into a starter, so they’re not just taking a bullpen arm. We’ll see.

#11. Colorado – Tyler Matzek, LHP

On talent, there’s no way he should have lasted this long, but his bonus demands pushed him out of the top 10. As punishment, he ends up heading to Coors Field. He better get his money early. Seriously, though, great pick for the Rockies if they can sign him. This is the kind of kid who makes the risk with HS arms worth it. Massive upside.

#12. Kansas City – Aaron Crow, RHP

There was some thought that Crow might fall out of the first round, but KC pops him here. They aren’t afraid of Indy League guys (see Hochevar, Luke), and they get another quality arm to plug into their future rotation. He could get to Kansas City quickly if they can get him signed. Good value for the Royals here.

#13. Oakland – Grant Green, SS

The A’s take the star of the Cape Cod League last year, ignoring his mediocre junior year who can be an up the middle player with a solid bat. Interesting to see how much Boras gets from the A’s, who aren’t big spenders.

#14. Texas – Matt Purke, LHP

The Rangers go with a big high school arm from Texas, which fits the mold of what they like. He wants a huge contract, so we’ll see how tough he is to sign, given that he’s clearly behind Matzek on most teams boards and got selected behind him as well. The Rangers farm system will just get even stronger, but it’s going to come at a high dollar cost.

#15. Cleveland – Alex White, RHP

White’s arm gets him drafted in spite of inconsistent performances and spotty command, though those problems caused him to fall a bit. He’s a guy who has the ability to be a better pro than he was in college, but you’re adding some hope to the mix here. He’s not close to the majors, unlike most college arms. He’s got a good amount of work to do.

#16. Arizona – Bobby Borchering, 3B

The best high school bat in the draft, Borchering is a kid who can really thump the baseball but might not stick at third. However, premium high school bats have a strong track record, so Arizona should feel good about this selection. A switch-hitter with power should be a nice option for them long term.

#17. Arizona – A.J. Pollock, CF

Interesting that Pollock gets announced as an outfielder – there were quite a few clubs who thought he could move back to shortstop or second base. It will be interesting to see how Arizona uses him. He’s a nice hitter with solid above average tools, and while he’s not flashy, he can play.

#18. Florida – Chad James, LHP

Florida selects a kid from Oklahoma? What a surprise. This was the easiest non-Strasburg pick in the draft to predict. The Marlins like young pitching, and they add another quality left-handed arm with a good breaking ball. At some point, they might want to draft someone who can catch the ball, though.

#19. St. Louis – Shelby Miller, RHP

Pre-draft rumors had the Cardinals wanting a left-handed pitcher, but they’ll have to settle for a kid who has been called a Josh Beckett clone. That’s probably a bit of an overstatement, but he’s got a power arsenal. Like Turner and Matzek, he’s the kind of pitcher who justifies the risk with high school pitchers.

#20. Toronto – Chad Jenkins, RHP

Jenkins fits the mold of arms that the Blue Jays like – throws strikes, a good selection of different pitches, pounds the bottom of the zone. Should be a groundball machine. The Halladay comparisons are going to be inevitable because of who drafted him, and while he’s not that good, this is a nice selection for Toronto.

#21. Houston – Jiovanni Mier, SS

A bit higher than some expected him to go, but Mier is an athletic shortstop with some power. How well he’ll hit is the question mark, but if he can develop a better all around offensive game, he could be a quality player. The glove should allow him to stick at the position, so he’s got some latitude offensively.

#22. Minnesota – Kyle Gibson, RHP

There’s no way Gibson falls this far without the forearm fracture, so the Twins have to be happy with how this worked out. The injury shouldn’t be a long term problem, and they’ll be able to see him throw before the signing deadline, so they should be able to make a determination of whether he’s healthy or not. He did have a heavy workload in college, though, so this might not be his last arm injury.

#23. Chicago White Sox – Jared Mitchell, CF

The White Sox love them some toolsy outfielders, and Mitchell is certainly that. He has the power/speed combination that makes it easy to dream on, but he’s a long way from being a major league player. He needs a lot of work at the plate, though he could still outdo Dwayne Wise offensively right now.

#24. Anaheim – Randal Grichuk, OF

This would have been a shocking pick a week ago, but St. Louis had Grichuk in to work out and got his name out there in the last few days. He’s a hitter in a draft that doesn’t have a lot of them, but unless they pick Mike Trout with their next selection, it’s tough for me to see how Grichuk is a better prospect.

#25. Anaheim – Mike Trout, OF

John Hart just mentioned that the executives have a chance to “touch and feel” players at personal workouts. Umm…

Well, there you go. I’ll take credit for that one. Your welcome, Mike. Nice pick for the Angels here – Trout can play, and is a very good value at #25.

#26. Milwaukee – Eric Arnett, RHP

I’m fairly certain that Harold Reynolds’ high horse will be running next year’s Kentucky Derby.

Arnett’s a big arm velocity guy who got better as the season went along. He’s got the power fastball/slider package so getting right-handers out won’t be a problem – the question is what he’ll throw to left-handed hitters in order to stay in the rotation. If he can develop a change-up that works, he could be a good value for the Brewers.

#27. Seattle – Nick Franklin, SS

Another pick that I’m a fan of for the M’s. A switch-hitting middle infielder who can hit and field. Nothing flashy, but a solid two way player who can turn into a quality performer at a position the M’s have a big hole at.

#28. Boston – Raymond Fuentes, CF

Fuentes got some ink for being Carlos Beltran’s cousin, but he deserves the press on his own. He’s got a nice five tool package, though the speed is ahead of the power. I’ve heard a comp to Andrew McCutchen, and that seems to fit pretty well.

#29. New York Yankees – Slade Heathcott, CF

Heathcott is a premium athlete with lots of baggage. Left-handed bat with power and speed, but he’s a long, long way from the majors.

#30. Tampa Bay – Levon Washington, 2B

You don’t see second baseman go in the first round that often, but Washington has serious athletic ability. He’s a left-handed bat with some top flight speed and the Rays liked his approach at the plate, so he could be a classic leadoff hitter type.

#31. Chicago Cubs – Brett Jackson, CF

People who hate strikeouts will remind you of Jackson’s contact rate, but he’s a premium defender with power and speed. I got a Devon White comp on him from a scout friend a few months ago, and while that’s definitely a best case scenario, this is a nice value for the Cubs.

#32. Colorado – Tim Wheeler, CF

Reports a week or so ago had Wheeler in the top ten, but questions about his price tag dropped him to the end of the first round. He’s a quality hitter, though he might not be a center fielder long term. It will be interesting to see if the Rockies can afford both Matzek and Wheeler, considering that both were looking for money that will be way above the slot recommendations.

That’s it for me, folks – thanks for sticking around on our first ever live blog. Hope you enjoyed it.