Jack Cust came into the season looking to cut down on his strikeout numbers, and he has done just that from 2008’s 41% K/AB to 30% K/AB this year. Unfortunately his BB/PA and HR/FB rates have also dropped (19% to 11% and 30% to 15% respectively). Put that all together, and add in a meager .273 BABIP, and you have a 0.324 wOBA. Down considerably from 2007 and 2008.

A week and a half ago Eric warned us about trying to create reasons for small sample shifts in performance. Over even half a season’s worth of time a good player can put up poor numbers, not because of any shift in true talent or changing approach but just because the coin lands tails a few too many times.

In this case, though, I think we can attribute some of the shift in Cust’s numbers to a change in approach. To begin with we were warned of the change in approach BEFORE we saw the shift in numbers. Also the shift is reflected in the more granular pitch-by-pitch data, although these are not immune from small sample size variation either. Last year Cust swung at 38% of the pitches he saw, in the bottom five, this year it is 45%, just a shade under league average. That is a huge shift, and he is seeing fewer pitches inside the zone this year than last.

I wanted to see where these additional pitches he is swinging at were. So I plotted all of the pitches that he took and swung at and then drew contour lines at the 50% break. Effectively inside the contour line he is more likely than not to swing at a pitch and outside less likely. Here are his contours in 2008, 2009 and for all lefties.

Cust’s additional swings are coming everywhere, inside, outside, low and high. He has added area inside the strike zone (which is good), but also area outside the strike zone (bad). In addition, it looks like Cust is now a freer-swinger than the average lefty. His swing rate is lower than average, but once you correct for the location of pitches seen he swings more often than the average lefty.

Additionally his contact rate is up, but power down. So it looks like Cust is swinging less hard (more contact less HRs) at more pitches. Athletics Nation noted the shift in numbers and suggested that Cust should go back to taking the 07-08 Cust approach at the plate, I would have to agree.

Thanks to the declaration that Roy Halladay is available, the Blue Jays roster has been thrust into trade speculation in the last few days. Yesterday’s surprising release of B.J. Ryan, who had $15 million left on his contract that ran through 2010, only heightened the attention towards the contracts Toronto has on the books. It has become commonplace, in fact, for people to refer to the ugly contracts for Vernon Wells and Alex Rios, and speculate about Ricciardi’s ability to get someone to take those two off his hands.

Except, you know, those two aren’t remotely similar, and lumping them together is pretty dumb.

Vernon Wells contract is awful. He’s owed $12.5 million next year, $23 million in 2011, and then $21 million per season from 2012-2014. He’s locked up for five years after this one for the price of $97 million. Since the beginning of 2007, Wells has earned a grand total of +1.2 wins in 1,488 plate appearances, or about +0.5 wins per season. Yech. $20 million a year for a guy with a league average bat and defense that belongs in LF/RF? That might be the worst contract in baseball. He’s giving Barry Zito a run for his money, at the very least. The Wells extension has been nothing short of a total disaster.

Alex Rios, though? He’s guaranteed $59 million from 2010 to 2014 or $71 million through 2015, depending on if his option year at the end of the contract is exercised. That’s $40 million less over the same time period, or $8 million per year less in annual average salary. And Rios has been nothing short of fantastic the last two years – he was worth +4.6 wins in 2007 and +5.5 wins last year. And he’s got the exact same skillset as he had then.

BB%: 6.5% in 2008, 6.5% in 2009
K%: 17.6% in 2008, 17.0% in 2009
ISO: .170 in 2008, .156 in 2009

His .350 wOBA from last year has become a .325 wOBA this year simply due to BABIP variance, where his .335 batting average on balls in play has dropped to .288 this year. His career BABIP? .328. This “slump” just isn’t anything to be concerned about. He has 32 extra base hits, he’s 13 for 16 in stolen bases, his contact rate is exactly the same as always… there’s just no offensive decline here. He’s the exact same above average hitter he was the last two years.

ZIPS projects a .355 wOBA going forward from Rios, which sounds about right for a 28-year-old with his skills. That makes him something like +15 runs per year offensively, and he’s a terrific defensive outfielder to boot, easily capable of playing center or being a gold glove candidate in right.

Rios is a +3.5 to +4.5 win player in the prime of his career, and he’s due to make just under $60 million for the next five years. This is a really good contract for the Jays. Rios is an outstanding player being paid less than his market value. He’s as far from being a Wells-like albatross as you could possibly get.

Vernon Wells contract is awful, and the Jays have to regret giving it to him every single day. Alex Rios‘ contract is very good, and he’s one of the pieces Toronto should be building around. They are in no way similar.

J.P. has a quick hook. You can say a lot of things about Ricciardi’s tenure as the Blue Jay’s GM, but you have to say this: The man is willing to swallow his pride and admit when he’s wrong. But wasn’t this a bit premature? The Jays will take a real bath here, eating $15 million of B.J. Ryan’s salary. Combine that with last year’s dump of Frank Thomas, and you have twenty-five million bucks worth of break-ups the past two seasons.

Ryan, as most of you may remember, was signed to a big 5-year, $47 million dollar contract in November of 2005. Year one of his contract looked promising — Ryan saved 38 in 42 attempts, posted a FIP of 2.14 and was worth three wins above replacement as Toronto’s closer in 2006. Unfortunately, the wheels came off quickly from there. Back pain somehow turned into Tommy John surgery, (read: the team lied to the media) and Ryan has not been the same pitcher since. While he was able to save 32 games in 36 tries last season, his stuff never returned. His fastball and his slider have dropped about 4 miles per hour and his slider has flattened out. The results have not been pretty:

Still, it’s surprising that the Blue Jays were so quick to show him the door. Ryan had complained to the press about a lack of playing time but (allegedly) refused any minor league assignment after the team placed him on the disabled list with tightness in his shoulder. Releasing Ryan was probably about the only way to make him semi-attractive to other teams who may be interested in taking a flier, so in that sense it may have been the right thing to do. Right now he looks more like a long-shot LOOGY than anything else, as he has shown he still at least has some ability to miss left-handed bats.

According to Ryan’s win values, he only “earned” $12 mil of that $47 million dollar contract, good for a $35 million dollar toilet flush.

Ryan seems to be a rarity in that Tommy John surgery hasn’t really seemed to take. Signing a 30-year old closer to a big, five-year deal hardly seems like a good idea to me, but at the time the deal wasn’t universally pilloried, and the Blue Jays were bumping salary in order to compete with the big two. The reign of Ricciardi has been a bumpy ride, and if I’m a Blue Jay fan I’m a little worried about him finding a way to screw up the Halladay trade negotiations.

As for Ryan, I’d imagine he’ll latch on somewhere, reportedly Florida has some interest. Whether he ever regains his form seems rather doubtful at the moment, but some team will give him a shot.

While talking with a fellow writer about the July 2nd signing period, he told me he was tired of two questions being asked. The one that I’m writing about today is one that reigns true about every player acquired and is simply “How close is he to the majors?”

The question and phrasing itself is innocent in nature, but the answer should be pretty easy to dictate, especially during this signing period. Most draftees are given two-to-four year windows by most fans depending on whether the player went to college or jumped straight from high school. These international signings include a lot of 16-year-olds, which makes them even younger than the high school seniors taken a month before.

Playing in Venezuela or the Dominican Republic leaves these players markedly less experienced than their domestic counterparts. Loss on them is the length and competitiveness that comes with a typical high school schedule. Take Miguel Angel Sano; most of his game experience is from showcases set-up by buscones. It’s going to take some time for the players to physically and mentally adjust to playing every day, even in the lower minors.

The cruel reality is that most of these players aren’t going to make the majors. If 60% of first round draft picks bust, and those players are presumably the best-of-the-best available amateurs who have fought through competition and difficult schedules, then what makes the international game any more likely for success? You can argue that these players are going to be the ones who need the most developmental time and work since they are so raw and fresh to the idea of organized baseball.

All of this is to say, we don’t know. For 16-year-old international signings, that’s always the answer.

It took long enough, but it seems the National League has discovered the secret to Alfonso Soriano’s success: throwing him fastballs. As a nightmare season creeps on for Soriano, he continues to see more and more breaking and off-speed pitches than previous years. Just compare the amount of fastballs thrown his way to those of recent campaigns in the NL:

2006 – 54.1%
2007 – 54.0%
2008 – 53.2%
2009 – 45.7%
Trying to hit any pitch that registers below 90 miles per hour has always been a chore for Soriano. Since 2002 his wFB/C is 2.02 and wCT/C is 1.65, with the exception of change-ups, Soriano has struggled mightily against every other pitch. -0.92 versus sliders, -0.37 against curves, and even -3.32 against split-finger fastballs pitches. That means that for every 100 fastballs Soriano sees, he produces two runs, and for every 100 sliders, he loses a run of production.

Soriano is walking and striking out as expected without flashing his power as often. For some perspective, consider this: Soriano’s .184 ISO would be the lowest of his career since 2001, when he was 25-years-old and in the midst of his first full season. A spotty BABIP is to blame for some of the issues, but Soriano is also hitting fewer homeruns and more infield fly balls. I wouldn’t expect that to continue since Soriano has seen his IFFB% rise and fall over the years with little predictive value.

Soriano is hitting a career high in groundballs and a career low in line drives which aren’t the directions you would like to see from your highly-paid slugger. Of course Soriano is 33-years-old, and some drop in offensive performance was expected, but no projection system had Soriano falling below a .350 wOBA and now ZiPS has Soriano finishing at .330.

Quite a drop, and nothing his defense to date is making up for.

Because the UZR listed here on FanGraphs often gets presented as one number, and the fact that UZR stands for Ultimate Zone Rating, it is often mistaken as shorthand for a measurement of a player’s range only. In fact, a player’s UZR is the sum of his range runs, his error runs, and his arm runs (for outfielders) or double play runs (for infielders).

Since the beginning of the 2008 season, here are the top outfield throwing arms, by ARM rating.

1. Hunter Pence, +11.1
2. Matt Kemp, +10.8
3. Ryan Ludwick, +9.0
4. Nick Markakis, +9.0
5. Brett Gardner, +8.4

Now, here are the innings totals for those same five players.

Pence, 2,081
Kemp, 2,039
Ludwick, 1,701
Markakis, 2,095
Gardner, 745

Which of these is not like the others? Gardner has racked up an incredible +8.4 ARM rating since showing up in the majors last year, and he’s done it in half a season’s worth of playing time. He has 83 “defensive games” as a major league outfielder, meaning that he’s had just over 1/2 of a season’s worth of balls hit to him to turn into outs. The four guys ahead of him are all at 200+ defensive games during this same time span.

This is a ridiculous performance, honestly. Over a full season, Gardner’s +17 pace would easily be double that of the 2008 ARM leader (Pence). He’s been worth almost a win to the Yankees (in half a season!) just by chucking the ball back in from the outfield.

When I looked up Gardner on the Fans Scouting Report for 2008, he graded out fairly average across the board in strength, accuracy, and release. Based on the 29 ballots filled out by Yankee fans after last season, Gardner’s arm was nothing to write home about. Melky Cabrera’s arm ratings were significantly better. Melky’s ARM rating this year; -3.2.

I haven’t seen Gardner throw enough to know whether the Yankee fans who filled out the Fans Scouting Report were blind or if Gardner is just taking advantage of a bad scouting report on him around the league. So, Yankee fans, help me out here – is Gardner’s ARM rating just a crazy fluke or did he steal Francoeur’s arm over the winter?

If Gardner really does have one of the best throwing arms in baseball, then there’s really no way that New York can justify keeping him out of the starting line-up on a regular basis. He’s already one of the best base stealers in the game (30 for 33), and his +10.6 range runs 600 innings as a major league center fielder suggest he might be an elite defensive player even without the crazy throwing. If the Yankees can really expect +5 to +10 runs per year from Gardner’s arm, in addition to above average range, and crazy good base stealing efficiency, then he’s worth an everyday line-up spot even with his .698 OPS in the majors.

In fact, when you look at the total body of work that Gardner has put together since showing up in New York, he’s racked up +3.3 wins above replacement in 342 plate appearances. Even with heavy regression, Gardner looks to be good enough to play everyday.

A Yankee prospect that might have been actually underrated? Now that’s worth writing about.

When southpaw hurler Marc Rzepczynski (pronounced Zep-Chin-Ski) took to the mound last night for the Toronto Blue Jays, he was the sixth rookie pitcher to start a game for Toronto this year. The 23-year-old pitcher was also the fourth left-handed rookie pitcher to start for the Jays this season.

Of all the rookie pitchers to throw for the Jays this season, Rzepczynski (and maybe Robert Ray) was the least heard about name (and hardest to spell). Not even manager Cito Gaston – or last night’s starting catcher Rod Barajas – had ever seen the rookie pitch.

Rzepczynski was a fifth round draft pick in 2007 out of the University of California-Riverside. He was also a college senior who had not even been drafted during his junior year. Less than three years later, Rzepczynski was a Major League Baseball player. The only players that have made it to the Majors who were taken between the second and fifth round of the 2007 draft are Rzepczynski, Jordan Zimmermann (2nd round, Washington), Jess Todd (2nd round, St. Louis) and Brad Mills (4th round, Toronto). Obviously, the Jays organization did a very good job in scouting and drafting Rzepczynski (not to mention Mills, who also debuted this year).

Rzepczynski’s biggest plus as a professional pitcher has been his groundball rate, which is an impressive 64.4% throughout his minor league career. He also has a career strikeout rate of 9.5 K/9. His biggest weakness – and something that was evident in his debut against Tampa Bay – is his lack on control. Rzepczynski has a career walk rate of 3.33 BB/9 and it was at 4.23 BB/9 in 14 double-A starts in 2009. Prior to his call-up, the left-hander also started two triple-A games where he allowed seven hits and four walks (and 16 Ks) in 11.1 innings.

During his debut last night, Rzepczynski walked four batters in six innings, but he allowed just two hits and struck out seven batters. He also induced seven groundball outs. Tampa Bay hitters flew into just four outs. His sinker sat between 86-88 mph last night with excellent downward movement, whereas his scouting reports have had him between 87-92 mph. Rzepczynski got the majority of his strikeouts because he mixed his pitches well and most of his Ks came on sliders and changeups.

There is no doubt that with just two starts above double-A – and just 16 starts above A-ball – Rzepczynski has been rushed out of necessity. If last night is any indication, though, he has a bright future, especially if he can tighten up his control. Right now, I would liken his potential to that of a left-handed version of Boston’s Justin Masterson.

Jarrod Washburn pitched a one-hitter on Monday, striking out three and walking none. Whenever a pitcher throws a no-hitter or one-hitter his defense has, by definition, played a great game, but by only striking out three Washburn relied especially heavily on his defense Monday. The defense converted 25 balls in play into 24 outs.

It is widely believed in sabermetric circles that pitchers have a lot of control over if a ball in play is a groundball or not, but beyond that exert a marginal amount of control on how field-able a ball in play is. If you agree with that assessment then a large share of the accolades that have been given to Washburn for his performance should go to his defense. Although Washburn deserves a lot of credit for facing 28 batters and walking none, and he doesn’t have to share that with anyone.

The 25 balls in play were 11 ground balls, eight fly balls, five line drives and one pop up (based on the GameDay classifications). I plotted the location of these balls in play over a crude map of Safeco field that I made also made from the GameDay data. I found the average out percentage for a ball in play in each location from 2005 to 2008 at Safeco Field to roughly indicate how hard each defensive play was to make. This method only takes into account the location of the ball in play, not how hard it was hit, or even what if it was a ground ball, fly ball or line drive. Obviously this is in no way a substitute for the sophisticated fielding metrics, like UZR, but, rather, a quick and dirty way to give some credit to Seattle’s fielders. The GameDay locations are determined by a person estimating the location where a ball was fielded, so there is most likely some error.

Again the location recorded is where the ball was fielded. The one hit actually landed farther in front of left fielder Ryan Langerhans where he had no chance of fielding it.

Also keep in mind the estimated out percentage is only based on the location, not type of ball in play. The pop out in shallow-right field was relatively easy out for Jose Lopez to field even though it was to a location of generally low out percentage.

The blob that looks like a hit at third base is just a lot of ground outs to Chris Woodward. These include barehanding a Adam Jones slow roller in the seventh and a nifty play on the last out of the game, a Brian Roberts ground ball down the third baseline. The line drive to the center-right gap was fielded by Ichiro Suzuki in the 2nd inning. Washburn got into the action, fielding a Melvin Mora bunt in the third. You can also see the luck involved in the one-hitter, line drives were hit right at Russell Branyan and Ronny Cedeno that could very easily have been hits if they had gone to slightly different angles.

So props to Washburn for his excellent control over nine innings, but don’t forget to give a big dose of credit to the Seattle defense as well.

Yesterday, Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi created quite the stir when he told several reporters that he was going to start listening to offers for Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay. He talked with Halladay about potentially waiving his no-trade clause, and both have made public statements about this possibly being the right time for a deal. Certainly, Ricciardi knows how heavy the demand is for starting pitching right now, and with the lack of availability of premium arms, the bidding for Halladay could get fierce. That is what J.P. is counting on, I’m sure.

So, if you’re a contending team in need of a starting pitcher, and the best pitcher in the game just became available, how much should you offer? What is Roy Halladay worth?

First off, the basics. Halladay is under contract through 2010. He will make about $7 million over the remainder of 2009, and is due $15.75 million next year. He will then be eligible for free agency. We know he’s worth more than his current salary, of course. $23 million for nine months of Roy Halladay is a pretty big bargain, even in today’s economic market.

To figure out Halladay’s market value, we have to answer the question of what Halladay would get if he were declared a free agent tomorrow, but then only allowed to sign a deal taking him through 2010.

First off, let’s look at Halladay’s win values over the years. Since 2002, he’s been worth about 46 wins in 1,585 innings, or right around an average of six wins per year. He’s on pace for about a seven win season this year, and he shows no signs of slowing down. Going forward, ZIPS projects a 3.21 FIP and 106 innings in his remaining 15 starts this year, which would be worth another 3.5 wins. Halladay is a +6 to +7 win pitcher, easily the best in baseball.

The market value for wins took a tumble on the low end last year, but at the high end, teams were still willing to pay around $5 million per win for premium free agents. Based on that, we’d say that Halladay’s fair market value is something like $30 to $35 million per season. However, those $5 million per win contracts were all long term deals, which carry extra risk to the organization and therefore pull down the annual average value that teams are willing to pay. With only a 15 month commitment, the long term risk with Halladay is substantially lower, and teams should (and will) pay a premium for that risk avoidance.

So, for a Cy Young contender only under contract through 2010, $5.5 million per win is probably a more accurate number to use. That puts Halladay’s market value between $33 and $38 million per year.

If we settle on $35 million as a middle ground, which puts him around a +6.5 win pitcher, we then Halladay’s value through the end of his current contract is about $52 million – a full year of 2010 plus a half year of 2009. But, you can’t forget about the fact that he’s very likely to be a Type A free agent at the end of 2010, and the acquiring team would be able to recoup two quality draft choices if they didn’t re-sign him as a free agent. Thanks to some good work by Victor Wang, we can see that the value of Halladay’s Type A status is around $8 million or so.

$52 million for Halladay’s performance + $8 million for the draft picks = $60 million in total value. He will be paid $22 million over that time frame, so 60-22 = $38 million.

To acquire the Jays ace, teams should be expected to surrender something like $40 million in value.

What does $40 million in value look like? Something like three terrific prospects who are not that far from the majors. No one’s giving up players from the Matt Wieters/David Price mold, but it’s going to take several players from that second prospect tier, the top 25-50 type guys.

Phillies fans – that’s Dominic Brown, Kyle Drabek, and Carlos Carrasco. Mets fans? Fernando Martinez, Wilmer Flores, and Jenrry Mejia.

You get the idea. If the Blue Jays trade Roy Halladay, they’re going to ask for the moon. And they should. He’s worth it.

Kenny Williams just can’t help himself. The man loves hard-throwing, right-handed relievers and will pay through the nose in order to get them. We are talking about the same general manager who in recent history agreed to $30 million bucks worth of Octavio Dotel and Scott Linebrink, and now he pulls the trigger to get another strong armed reliever in Tony Pena, giving up a solid prospect in the process.

As many of you may recall, Pena once was a once a big story, and not for his arm, but for falsifying his information on his visa, going under the alias Adriano Rosario. When the truth of his real identity came to light, what also was revealed is that (surprise!) Pena was five years older than his reported age. In a flash, Pena went from an 18-year old whiz kid dominating the minors to something like Billy Madison throwing dodge-balls at hapless elementary school students.

That’s not to say Pena doesn’t have talent. In a nutshell, Pena throws hard. His average fastball velocity is 95-MPH, and he also features a hard slider and a changeup, both pitches have been effective offerings for him this year. For someone with stuff as good as Pena’s, it’s surprising he doesn’t strikeout more batters; he’s actually been rather average in that regard. (6.55 career K/9, 6.88 this season). Pena has better control than average and for someone who has pitched in a rather hitter-friendly park, he’s done a fine job of keeping the ball in the yard. He has a 4.24 ERA now, but much of that can be blamed on some bad BABIP breaks (.352). ZiPS pegs him to post a 3.53 FIP for the rest of the season. I can imagine that may change a tad due to the switch in leagues, but as far as ballparks he’s moving from one rough neighborhood to another.

The price for Pena is Brandon Allen. The 23 year old is a big, left-handed power hitter who positioned himself as either Jim Thome or Paul Konerko’s heir. The former prep linebacker was a fifth rounder out of high school in ’04, but struggled to make contact during his first three seasons in the minors. Allen has made strides over the past couple of seasons, and after being promoted to Double-A last year, he posted a nifty .290/.358/.614 line in 274 plate appearances. All told, between High-A and Double-A, he smacked 29 homers last year while cutting down his strikeout numbers and increasing his walk rate.

This year it seems Allen has traded power for contact. His average is up to .290 at Double-A and he’s striking out less than ever (19.5%), but his power has suffered (.162 ISO). Of course, he still has more time to work out the kinks. Chad Tracy has been just plain bad since coming back last year, so D-Bax fans hope Allen is the answer to the first base question for years to come. Allen does carry an air of uncertainty given his recent power decline and the struggles he experienced early in his career, but if all goes well, he profiles to be better than your run of the mill, everyday first baseman.

The Southsiders are only a couple of games behind Detroit and have won eight of their last ten games, so Kenny Williams is going for it, but in the wrong way. The Sox have plenty of needs, but fixing the bullpen is hardly one of them. Assuming Pena will slot behind Jenks, Thornton, Linebrink and Dotel, all Pena figures to add to the Sox is half a win. On the flip side, Dotel is a free agent at the end of the year, and Pena won’t be eligible for free agency until 2013, so I guess there is some foresight in this move, but it’s not like relievers of Pena’s ilk are hard to find. The Sox had hitting depth to spare given the presence of Tyler Flowers and Dayan Viciedo, so trading from that strength makes sense, but not for another bullpen arm.