Archive for July, 2009

Niekro Knuckles Under the Pressure

When first baseman Lance Niekro walked off of the minor league baseball field for the last time in 2008, after unsuccessfully trying to recapture his Major League career, he could have left the game with a feeling of satisfaction.

Niekro had a respectable career as a hitter. The former second-round pick out of Florida Southern University appeared in 195 games with the San Francisco Giants during parts of four seasons in the big leagues. In 499 at-bats, he had a career Major League triple-slash line of .246/.288/.421. His nine-year Minor League line was .307/.340/.474.

But Niekro also played in a pretty big shadow. His father Joe and uncle Phil had amassed a combined 539 big-league wins and 46 seasons in the Majors. It was a shadow he could never truly escape. Every time he struggled with the bat, people would whisper that he should hang up his batting gloves for good and break out the family knuckleball.

Finally, at the age of 30, Niekro is embracing the shadow. On June 25, 2009, the right-hander took the mound for the first time as a full-time pitcher (He appeared in one game as a pitcher for triple-A Fresno in 2007 in a mop-up situation). Now with the Atlanta Braves organization – uncle Phil played for the organization for 18 seasons, father Joe played for them for two – the younger Niekro allowed two runs on six hits and two walks. He also struck out four batters and earned his first professional win. In his second game on July 3, Niekro worked three shutout innings with three hits and two walks allowed. He struck out two batters.

Niekro is a long, long way from realizing his dream of pitching in the Major Leagues. Currently throwing in the Gulf Coast League (rookie ball) against mostly 17- and 18-year-old hitters, his numbers must be taken with a grain of salt. The early reports on Niekro’s knuckleball are encouraging, but it takes a long time to truly master the pitch. If he does successfully harness the knuckler, though, it will make a great story and a fitting tribute to his father, who passed away in 2006.


Jamie Moyer is Throwing a Ton of Fastballs

Although Jamie Moyer’s ERA and FIP are both well above his career average he is pitching just as well as he has over the past five years. His FIP is artificially inflated by an unsustainable high 15.3% HR/FB, while his ERA is up because of that HR/FB and a .312 BABIP, his highest since 1991. His K/BB and GB% are right in line with his recent performance, but he is doing it in a completely different way. Check how Baseball Info Solution has classified his pitches:

+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
|           |  2006 |  2007 |  2008 |  2009 |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Fastball  |  0.41 |  0.38 |  0.41 |  0.65 |
| Cutter    |  0.13 |  0.24 |  0.30 |  0.10 |
| Changeup  |  0.28 |  0.28 |  0.24 |  0.18 |
| Curveball |  0.10 |  0.08 |  0.06 |  0.07 |
| Slider    |  0.08 |  0.01 |  0.00 |  0.00 |
+-----------+-------+-------+-------+-------+

What? Why is this ‘crafty lefty’ with a very good changeup and serviceable cutter sudenly throwing almost 65% fastballs? He of the 81 mph fastball. Maybe BIS is just reclassifying some of his other pitches, calling some of his cutters and changes fastballs?

I went back and used the pitchf/x data and classified his pitches using my own k-means clustering algorithm (the pitchf/x classification system itself is not always entirely reliable, at times confusing cutters and sliders and before 2009 it did not differentiate between two- and four- seam fastballs

+--------------------+-------+-------+-------+
|  v RHB             |  2007 |  2008 |  2009 |
+--------------------+-------+-------+-------+
| Two-Seam Fastball  |  0.19 |  0.28 |  0.40 |
| Four-Seam Fastball |  0.21 |  0.17 |  0.24 |
| Cutter             |  0.24 |  0.21 |  0.07 |
| Changeup           |  0.28 |  0.28 |  0.21 |
| Curveball          |  0.08 |  0.06 |  0.08 |
+--------------------+-------+-------+-------+
|  v LHB             |  2007 |  2008 |  2009 |
+--------------------+-------+-------+-------+
| Two-Seam Fastball  |  0.33 |  0.26 |  0.42 |
| Four-Seam Fastball |  0.17 |  0.16 |  0.21 |
| Cutter             |  0.26 |  0.35 |  0.17 |
| Changeup           |  0.17 |  0.16 |  0.11 |
| Curveball          |  0.07 |  0.07 |  0.05 |
+--------------------+-------+-------+-------+

My numbers are reasonably in line with BIS’s so I am pretty comfortable with the differences not being a classification artifact. It looks to me like Moyer is throwing a ton more two-seam fastballs this year, coming at the expense of his cutter and changeup.

Ump Bump noted the trend back in May and suggested that maybe he lost the zone with his cutter, curve and changeup, and needed to go heavy with the fastball to keep his walks down. His in zone rate is way down and early in the season his walk numbers were up before they settled back to near his career average recently, so this might be the case. I am not entirely sure. Phillies’ fans what do you think? Do you notice the difference while watching the games?

Interestingly even with the change in pitch usage his K, BB and GB numbers are not far off his career numbers. One thing that has changed is his platoon split. Over his career he had a slight reverse platoon split (OPS: vRHB .741/vLHB .766), this year he has an extreme one (OPS: vRHB .920/vLHB .760). This is expected when you trade changeups (no platoon split) for two-seam fastballs (huge platoon split).


The Scott Hairston Deal

When I heard that the Padres had traded Scott Hairston for Craig Italiano, Ryan Webb, and a PTBNL, my first reaction was to wonder if they were trying to tank as quickly as possible to give themselves a shot at drafting Bryce Harper. There weren’t too many other explanations that made much sense, given that Hairston was one of only two guys on the Padres roster hitting his weight and that he made a total of $1.25 million this year while not being eligible for free agency until after 2011.

After a night to think it over and do some more research on the deal, I don’t have many more answers than I did last night. I still don’t get it.

Kevin Towers justified the trade thusly: “That’s the one thing we lack in our system is pitching depth,” Towers said, noting the lack of higher-level arms in the system. “We really didn’t want to give up Scotty. But for us, this is a move looking beyond this year.”

Not sure if you’ve noticed, Mr. Towers, but you play in the most pitcher friendly ballpark in baseball. You’ve picked up Chad Gaudin and Kevin Correia off the scrap heap and watched them turn into pretty useful arms in the expanse of Petco Park, after doing the same thing with Cha Seung Baek last year. Your ballpark is a veritable pitching factory, allowing you to take arms with some flaws and make them look all shiny and new.

What you don’t have is a major league offense. Sure, Hairston was over his head this year, so maybe you can convince yourself that you’re selling high. But even with an expected regression, he’s a league average hitter who had turned himself into a decent enough outfielder to handle center field or be above average in a corner spot. Hairston is a +2 to +3 win player, under team control for 2 1/2 years, and making a fraction of what he’s worth. That’s a really valuable asset.

In return for one of their best trade chips, the Padres get a couple of bullpen arms with upside in Webb and Italiano and a PTBNL that Towers called “the key to the deal”. Because Towers indicated that the PTBNL is going to be one of two pitchers, one of whom has major league service time, speculation has centered around Sean Gallagher or Dana Eveland. Gallagher is better than Eveland, but I’m not sure this deal makes sense for San Diego regardless of which pitcher it ends up being.

Call me crazy, but I think low cost, above average major league players should command more than a potential back-end starter and a pair of bullpen arms. It’s hard for me to fathom how the Padres could back away from really good deals for Jake Peavy over the winter, but then begin to sell off useful pieces like Hairston for spare parts.

From the A’s perspective, this is a no-brainer deal. Hairston will replace the soon-to-be-traded Matt Holliday in the line-up, giving them a right-handed outfield bat that they lacked going forward, and they gave up no real parts of their future to acquire a guy who can fit into their near-term core.

Easy win for Oakland here. Can’t say I’m a fan of whatever plan San Diego is putting in place.


Marquis de Blah

With the All-Star rosters unveiled, Charlie Manuel showed that you can be a championship-winning manager and have no more intelligence than your average fan when it comes to putting together an All-Star team. Picking Jason Marquis over Ubaldo Jimenez vividly illustrates that point that Manuel is still living in the dark ages.

Ubaldo Jimenez is what the All-Star game should be about — showcasing the brightest and the best talent in the major leagues. For starters, he throws consistently harder than any major league starting pitcher, averaging 95.6 MPH on his fastball. Obviously, putting together an All-Star pitching staff should not based upon finding the pitchers who throw the hardest, but it doesn’t hurt that Jimenez is also really, really good. His fielding-independent ERA (FIP) is 3.33, 7th among NL starting pitchers, and his wins above replacement total is 2.9, good for 5th best. To to sum up: Jimenez is young, he has electric stuff and is pretty stinkin’ good at pitching.

Jason Marquis on the other hand is leading the NL in the preeminent Wins category, with 10 to his credit. What Manuel seems to have forgotten is that Jason Marquis is the definition of a back-end starting pitcher (with a career FIP of 4.88). He forgot that Marquis has an average repertoire and is striking out just 4.2 batters per nine innings. He overlooked the fact Marquis is getting lots of run support, at 7 per game. Marquis does have a near-identical ERA as Jimenez (3.87), but he is exactly the type of pitcher you expect burn up as he hurtles quickly back to earth. His rest-of-season ZiPS projection calls for a 4.73 FIP. All Manuel saw was 10 Wins.

I don’t expect an old school manager to care about rest of season ZiPS, FIP or WAR, but I would think they would know the difference between an ace and a back-end starter having a fluky first-half of a season. And who wouldn’t want Ubaldo Jimenez coming out of their bullpen, pumping in 100 MPH fastballs? Few fans get the privilege of seeing Jimenez pitch with him tucked away in Colorado, and unfortunately they’re not going to get the chance to see him shine on one of baseball’s biggest stages.


The Defensive All-Stars

The all-star teams were announced yesterday, and by the sheer number of first basemen on the rosters you can tell which end of the offense/defensive spectrum is considered during the team building process. Michael Young? Sure, Franklin Gutierrez? Ew, no. With that in mind, today I’m going to crown the all-star teams compiled completely of the best defenders in each league. Since we don’t have a central thought process on how to evaluate catchers defense, I’ll skip over those roster spots. Also I went by qualified players only, so some, like Ben Zobrist at second, have a really good case, but don’t qualify due to playing time at the position.

First up, the National League.

1B: Derrek Lee, Adrian Gonzalez
2B: Brandon Phillips, Freddy Sanchez
3B: Ryan Zimmerman, Pedro Feliz
SS: Jack Wilson, J.J. Hardy, Rafael Furcal
COF: Nyjer Morgan, Colby Rasmus, Jay Bruce, Justin Upton, Randy Winn
CF: Matt Kemp, Mike Cameron

Any team in need of a defensive middle infielder for the rest of the season should call the Pirates. Zimmerman is really good, and probably has a real all-star bid locked down until Stephen Strasburg becomes the greatest pitcher in the universe. Lots of youth in the outfield with Rasmus, Bruce, and Upton; what are the odds that those three make up a few real all-star outfielders during their careers? Naitonals/Pirates representation, it doesn’t matter, Morgan is the starter in left.

American League:
1B: Paul Konerko, Miguel Cabrera
2B: Howie Kendrick, Placido Polanco
3B: Joe Crede, Brandon Inge, Evan Longoria
SS: Marco Scutaro, Elvis Andrus
COF: David DeJesus, Nelson Cruz, Juan Rivera, Ichiro
CF: Franklin Gutierrez, B.J. Upton, Ryan Sweeney

What a ridiculous quartet of defensive talent at third base. If Adrian Beltre were healthy, the AL would have four third basemen with 8+ UZR. Originally I had Ian Kinsler on the team as the third second baseman, but I’m pretty sure Evan Longoria could fill in at second and produce 5+ UZR. The most surprising placer is probably Juan Rivera. Given his recent fielding history his UZR this year seems like a small sample size mirage, his last good fielding season was in 2005 after all. How fun would a Gutierrez, Upton, and Ichiro outfield be to watch? Don’t get any ideas, Seattleites.

Since no all-star team is complete without gimmicky vote-in schemes, here’s a list of five in each league worthy of your consideration for addition.

NL: Juan Pierre, Jayson Werth, Casey Blake, Ryan Theriot, Clint Barmes
AL: Carl Crawford, Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia, J.D. Drew, Aaron Hill

All things considered, I’m not too sure out team of defenders couldn’t defeat the real all-stars.


Growing Optimistic About Amaro

For the sake of brevity, let’s just say that I have been critical of rookie GM Ruben Amaro this season. Perhaps my criticisms were the result of my being a Phillies fan as well as an analyst, making an example of him in an unfair manner. Or, perhaps my remarks were right on the money. Who knows? What I do know, after reading something this morning, is that there is now at least one more reason to be optimistic about his reign atop the defending champions. And let’s get this out of the way before moving forward – this is not a Raul Ibanez post so please be mature and avoid derailing the comments thread.

The Phillies have reportedly been mulling over anyone and everyone in their quest to fix a bruised and underachieving starting rotation. Recently, their thoughts turned to Paul Byrd, the veteran last seen in action with the Indians and Red Sox a year ago. Byrd made 30 starts and posted a 4.60 ERA and a 5.14 FIP derived from a sub 4.20 K/9 and a higher-than-desired home run rate. Essentially, Byrd put up numbers that one might consider acceptable from a minor league prospect in his first go-around with the team, not a 38-yr old with no upside and limited utility in the present.

Fortunately, Amaro feels the same way. I’m paraphrasing here, but he told reporters they had been considering Byrd but ultimately concluded that the former Phillie would not represent an upgrade over their minor league candidates. The Phillies have Kyle Drabek tearing up Double-A, as well asKyle Kendrick, Rodrigo Lopez, Andrew Carpenter and Carlos Carrasco pitching in Triple-A. Sure, Byrd would be “new,” and fans occasionally mix up new with good, but any of those four pitchers, already employed by the team, would be equal to, or better than, Byrd.

Last night I called for teams to avoid signing Brandon Backe, at least as a starting pitcher on the major league roster, since he comes close to defining replacement level and would barely be an upgrade for even a cellar-dweller. Thankfully, at least Amaro feels the same way. It is time to give young pitchers a chance and to stop recycling the garbage that is Horacio Ramirez, Sidney Ponson, Adam Eaton, Brandon Backe, Bruce Chen, etc. Reading his words was a breath of fresh air. Now, if he turns around and sends Greg Dobbs to the Mariners for Miguel Batista, I might revert to my prior opinions, but understanding that new!=good and that veteran!=automatically > minor leaguer are two key characteristics I want a GM of my team to possess. They seem like easy attributes to attain but as we have seen lately, not everyone can stake claim as acting on this knowledge.


Latin Market Bargain: Jenrry Mejia

The international free agent market opened yesterday with a number of high-profile signings of 16-year-old prospects out of Latin America. Many of the players signed on Thursday received six- to seven-figure bonuses bases on their tools and future projections. One of the most fascinating parts of scouting and development is that there are always diamonds in the rough to be found.

The New York Mets club is having a frustrating season at the Major League level, but the organization has to be pretty excited about one of its international free agent acquisitions from the 2007 signing period. Right-hander Jenrry Mejia, just 19 years old, has risen to double-A in just his first full season in North America. The best part is that the Mets organization signed Mejia for less than $20,000.

Mejia possesses a mid-90s fastball that is still adding velocity and a very good, deceptive changeup. His breaking ball – a curveball – is still developing. Mejia has shown good control for a young pitcher with limited professional pitching experience.

The Dominican hurler made his North American debut in the rookie league in 2008 after spending one season in the Dominican Summer League. Before the 2008 season was over, though, Mejia was pitching against college graduates in the short-season New York Penn League.

Despite jumping over low-A to begin 2009, Mejia had few problems in high-A ball, where he posted a 1.97 ERA and allowed just 41 hits in 50.1 innings of work. He had a walk rate of just 2.86 BB/9 and racked up a strikeout rate of 7.87. Mejia also induced ground balls at the rate of 65.4%, while allowing a line-drive rate of just 9.8%. Promoted to double-A as a teenager, he has actually had to work a little bit. In four starts, Mejia’s given up 23 hits in 21.2 innings, while posting rates of 3.74 BB/9 and 9.97 K/9. His ground-ball rate has remained solid at 53.6%, while his line-drive rate is still low at 10.1%.

Mejia is an exciting prospect – and not just because he’s holding his own as a teenager in double-A. He’s dominating with a good repertoire that promises to get even better as he fills out his frame and gains more experience spinning his curveball. As well, he works down in the zone better than most young pitchers (thanks in part to that changeup) and he’s allowed just two home runs this season in 72 innings of work combined between high-A and double-A.

If he can stay healthy, Mejia has the chance to be a No. 1 or 2 starter and his Major League career will very likely begin before his 21st birthday.


Now What?

Over the last few months, the Cubs have tried a hodgepodge of options to fill third base in Aramis Ramirez’s abasence – Mike Fontenot, Ryan Freel, and Bobby Scales got time there, but recently, Lou Piniella had settled on Jake Fox, star of the Free Jake Fox campaign. Fox’s bat had forced him into the line-up, and he’d done enough to convince the Cubs manager that his defense wouldn’t be worst-of-all-time at the hot corner.

However, with Ramirez set to return from his rehab assignment on Monday, the Cubs are going to have to figure out a new plan to get Fox’s bat in the line-up. His .379 wOBA since arriving in the majors is the best on the club (besides Ramirez), and based on what he was doing at Triple-A, there’s reasons to think he can keep swinging the bat this well. But, where will he play?

Derrek Lee has caught fire after a slow start, locking down first base, so Fox probably won’t play much there. Ramirez is the team’s best player, so as long as he stays healthy, it’s hard to imagine Fox getting much playing time at third. That leaves the corner outfield spots, manned by the under-producing Milton Bradley and Alfonso Soriano. With neither of them hitting as well as expected, Fox could get some time in their place, but it’s hard to imagine that he won’t be a pretty big liability chasing down fly balls. At third, you could hide his lack of mobility, but if he’s trying to run after balls in the gap, fans are going to see pretty quickly why he’s been labeled a future DH.

So, perhaps the best option for everyone involved is a trade. The Tigers are hunting for some offensive help to offset the collapse of Magglio Ordonez, for instance. Fox is the kind of bat that could help them in their pursuit of the AL Central title, and perhaps the best way for the Cubs to use him is as a chip to acquire something that fits their needs a little bit better.


Montero the Man Child

The international free agent market opened yesterday with a bang, with two 16-year old Latin Americans signing for huge bonuses. The Yankees signed catcher Gary Sanchez for a $3 million bonus, and the Cardinals, not to be outdone, spent $3.1 million on outfielder Wagner Mateo, a record amount for a Dominican position player. Signing kids to big bonus money involves a fair share of risk, as one doesn’t know fully what type of player or even person a 16-year old will grow up to be. A team has to feel fairly confident about it’s ability to scout and forecast a player’s potential, but these players still sort of feel like expensive lottery tickets.

Wily Mo Pena signed for what was once a record $2.44 million, and he had only two seasons in which his WAR was in the positive, and neither seasons were with the team that signed him. Joel Guzman also received a huge bonuses, and he has a whopping 62 big league plate appearances to his credit. Those are a couple of the bad stories, but there is one story of a bonus baby that currently is developing into a really good one, and that is Jesus Montero’s.

Signed for a $1.6 million bonus by the Yankees, scouts have raved about Montero’s future power potential, some going far as to grade his power an “8” on the 2-8 scouting scale. The knock was on his body, which some said he looked like Travis Hafner. (He’s currently listed at 6-4, 225). At 16-years old. I guess when you are projected to hit like vintage Travis Hafner, no one seems to mind.

Montero is just 19-years old and is currently dominating the minors. After posting a .326/.376/.491 line in Single-A ball, Montero started his season in the High-A Florida State League, a notoriously friendly league to pitching. In over a little 200 plate appearances, Montero was a man among boys, leading the league with a .444 wOBA. A promotion to Double-A has not slowed him, in 86 plate appearances Montero has a superb .325/.395/.571 line. Between Tampa and Trenton, he has just an 11.6% strikeout rate, which is outstanding for a young power hitter. His walk rate is 8%, but he should grow more patient at the plate with experience and maturity.

Montero just been playing like an absolute man child, and at this pace it’s not inconceivable that he’s ready for a big league job at 21-years old. But if there is hole in his game, it definitely on his defense. As a catcher, the young Venezuelan has allowed 74 stolen bases in the 43 games he’s caught this season, and has thrown out just 15 would be base-stealers.

A move to 1B or even DH could be in order, but we know the Yankees are pretty historically indifferent to defense. Maybe the Yankees think he’s their mini-Piazza. Hitting the way he has at a young age, maybe it’s not completely preposterous to believe so.


Is Pinerio’s Newfound Groundball Success Sustainable?

Dave covered Joel Pineiro’s defensive dependent tendencies earlier this season. Part of Pineiro’s success can be traced to an increased groundball rate. Pineiro’s stuff is generating over 60% groundballs after producing a little less than 50% last year. Keith Law submitted a post idea involving other large jumps and whether those pitchers were able to sustain the batted ball trait in the following season.

Using our groundball data (dating back to 2002) I looked at every starting pitcher with at least 100 innings during that season and compared their rates to the preceding and following seasons. I found eight cases where a pitcher increased 10% from one year to the next. Those cases include Cliff Lee, Josh Beckett, Ryan Drese, Jon Garland, Johan Santana, CC Sabathia, Kris Benson, and John Thomson. Below you’ll see the data table. The first column is self explanatory. Year N dictates the season in which the large jump occurred. Delta is the difference between Year N and Year N-1. N+1 is the year after Year N, shown to represent whether the jump sustained or regressed in the following season.

data

None of the pitchers suffered a 50% or higher loss in the next season. Only Jon Garland lost 5% or more, and only two pitchers gained more than 1%. All of which is to say that if the pitcher can show such improvement in causing groundballs, then the improvement is most likely legitimate rather than a sample size fluke. So what’s the improved part of Pineiro’s game? His fastballs.

For one, Gameday is now classifying a large chunk of Pineiro’s fastballs as two-seamers, which seems accurate. Pineiro’s four-seam fastballs are also breaking in to righties more and ‘up’ less. Whatever the pitch is, Pineiro is giving batters of both hands absolute fits this season. Righties have a .702 OPS against despite an inflated BABIP and lefties have a .661 OPS against, albeit with a deflated BABIP. This isn’t the Pineiro we or the batters are used to, but I guess we’re stuck with this version for at least another year.

For more reference on groundball rate spikes, check out Eric’s piece from earlier in the season.