All the Roy Halladay to Boston talk is centered around a line that goes something like this: “Off-season signings Brad Penny and John Smoltz have disappointed. Smoltz especially with a 7.04 ERA and 1-4 record…”

Ignore the ERA and record, John Smoltz is fine. In 30 innings Smoltz has walked 5 and struck 28 out. Yeah, he’s given up a few home runs too, but his FIP is a steady 3.61 (3.82 xFIP) and tRA has him at 3.94 (4.81 tRA*) meaning he’s not giving up only sharply hit line drives. Still yet, his BABIP is .394 and his strand rate is 57.6%

Smoltz has had three starts with 5+ earned runs allowed, but look at the gamelogs from those games:

6/25: 5 IP, 7 H, 0 HR, 3 FB, 9 GB, 5 LD
7/6: 6 IP, 10 H, 0 HR, 7 FB, 13 GB, 4 LD
7/20: 5.2 IP, 9 H, 3 HR, 11 FB, 7 GB, 3 LD
7/26: 5 IP, 9 H, 1 HR, 7 FB, 5 GB, 5 LD

All total: 21.2 IP, 35 H, 4 HR, 28 FB, 34 GB, 17 LD. The results don’t seem to meet the processes. Allowing more hits than usual is nothing new for this year’s Red Sox team. They lead the league in BABIP against. A little over 32% of balls put into play result in hits. The next highest team is the Diamondbacks at 31.2%. Until someone produces evidence otherwise, I’m going to notch Smoltz’ BABIP up to a porous defense rather than a new found ability to throw watermelons 90 miles per hour.

The Red Sox are interested in Halladay because it’s Roy Halladay, not because John Smoltz or Brad Penny are pitching poorly.

Ned Colletti couldn’t come up with Cliff Lee so instead, today he adds a different southpaw pitcher in the form of George Sherrill; in the process giving up prospects in the form of third baseman Joshua Bell and right-handed pitcher Steve Johnson.

For now, Sherrill becomes the third lefty in the Dodgers pen – joining Hong-Chih Kuo and Brent Leach – but you would have to expect Sherrill to step into a role similar to Kuo’s of last season. The trade ends Sherrill’s year and two-thirds run as the Orioles closer. Sherrill posted impressive numbers this season, but he’s absolutely death to left-handed batters. In 50 plate appearances this year lefties have an OPS against of .356; in 72 plate appearances last year an OPS of .535; and in 106 plate appearances in 2006 an OPS of .529. Sherrill throws a fastball in the high-80s/low-90s along with a slider that sits in the mid-70s and generates a fair amount of whiffs.

In Bell, the Orioles receive a 22-year-old switch-hitting third baseman with impressive power potential. His ISO in Double-A this season is .203, but there are some questions as to whether he’s going to stick at third for the long haul or move to a corner – either first or left/right field. Bell has had issues with strikeouts in the past which reached their apex in 2008. His walk rate has grown impressive and his strikeout numbers are down for this year, so he’s definitely an interesting player to watch for in the next few years.

Johnson is a right-handed starter with impressive numbers who has split the year between High and Double A. His numbers are pretty impressive, striking out 117 in about 107 innings so far, but his stuff rates just above average. His control and command seem to be pretty good and whatever he’s doing, whether deception or otherwise, has worked to date.

The two seem like a nice coup by the Orioles in exchange for a two years and a third of Sherrill as they continue to build with impressive young talent.

The Phillies acquired Cliff Lee yesterday with the eye on the playoffs, they are six games up in NL East and by at least these estimates have over an 81% chance of reaching the post season. So I thought I would look to a potential Philly playoff berth. With Lee, their potential playoff rotation looks like:

Cole Hamels, LHP
Cliff Lee, LHP
Joe Blanton, RHP
J.A. Happ or Jamie Moyer, both LHPs

This is three-lefties-one-righty rotation is all the more interesting in light of the potential righty-heavy lineups they could face. Dave noted that the Cardinals have a very righty-heavy lineup, and the Giants only have one lefty in their regular lineup now that Ryan Garko replaced Travis Ishikawa. On the face of it this could present Philly with a real problem, but let’s look at these lefties’ career platoon splits.

 Career OPS against
+--------+----------+----------+
|        | OPS vRHB | OPS vLHB |
+--------+----------+----------+
| Hamels |    0.698 |    0.716 |
| Lee    |    0.737 |    0.710 |
| Happ   |    0.711 |    0.651 |
| Moyer  |    0.741 |    0.764 |
+--------+----------+----------+

Hamels has a devastating changeup, a pitch that generally does not show a platoon split, as a result Hamels has a reverse platoon split.

Cliff Lee, with a good changeup and curveball another pitch with no platoon split, has shown only a modest platoon split over his career.

Happ, on the other hand, has a quite large platoon split, which he had in the minors too (0.678 vRHB and 0.622 vLHB). It is backed up by his pitch usage which is very fastball heavy, with almost no curves and few changeups.

Moyer is an interesting case, over his career he has had a reverse platoon split on the strength of his good changeup and curveball. This year, though, he has a very drastic split in the other direction (0.885 OPS against RHB and 0.700 against LHB). Normally I would write this off as noise, but as I noted in this post Moyer is throwing many fewer changeups and curves this year and many more two-seam fastballs, which have a large platoon split. If he keeps this pitch breakdown going forward I would assume his split will stay like it has been this year.

All told I don’t think it should be much of a concern. Lee and Hamels are both great pitchers who do better or just marginally worse against RHBs, so I don’t think the Phillies should worry about facing righty-heavy lineups in the playoffs.

Big trades ruled the day yesterday. A minor deal that flew under the radar was the Reds buying low on Wladimir Balentien, having acquired him from Seattle for right-handed reliever Robert Manuel. M’s fans had to be hoping for a better return than a 26-year old reliever who recently broke into the big leagues. Manuel has notable minor league numbers but has done it with guile and pedestrian stuff.

Balentien’s descend from grace has been pretty dramatic. In 2008, Balentien was considered to be one of the better prospects in all of baseball. He just missed the cut on Baseball America’s Top 100 and the tough-grading John Sickels gave him a B+ grade. Balentien was coming off a season in which he hit .291/.362/.509 as a 22-year old in Triple-A, having shown improvement in pitch recognition after formerly being a hacker of the highest order. His minor league success didn’t translate to big league success. He was shuttled back and forth between Tacoma and Seattle last year and after posting a .269 wOBA in 434 major league plate appearances, Balentien was out of options and Jack Z. was out of patience. Wladimir was designated for assignment.

Yesterday, here and all over the blogosphere you read a lot of snap judgments as to what teams won what trade based on the package of prospects they were getting in return. I think Balentien illustrates that prospect grading will never be a perfect science, and even those who are considered to be very good prospects still have high rates of attrition. I for one love the snap judgments and make them myself based on scouting reports, the research that we have and by my own gut. But we won’t really know who won these trades until a few years from now.

One of the most enjoyable parts of writing for a site like Fangraphs is “hearing” the banter between writers behind the scenes. After news broke of the Pittsburgh-San Francisco deal that saw second baseman Freddy Sanchez head from the Pirates to the Giants, these comments were made from some of Fangraphs’ finest:

“What the hell?”

“The best pitching prospect of the day doesn’t get traded for Cliff Lee, but for Freddy Sanchez. Awesome. Nice job, Cleveland.”

“My lord, Sabean, what are you doing?”

Just when you thought it was safe to love San Francisco prospects again, general manager Brian Sabean tossed away the club’s second best pitching prospect for an injury-prone, veteran second baseman in his free agent year (although he has an $8 million option that is way too high). Oh, and the Giants organization just gave away its third best pitching prospect (Scott Barnes) to the Indians for a league-average first baseman. Madison Bumgarner is suddenly very, very lonely.

Alderson is just 20 years old and he’s holding his own in double-A. The 6’6′ right-hander also has above-average command and control for his age. He can throw in the low-90s and has a plus curveball and a developing changeup. In 13 double-A starts, Alderson allowed 76 hits in 72.2 innings of work, while posting a walk rate of just 1.73 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 5.70 K/9 (which will no doubt rise as he gains experience). The 22nd pick of the 2007 draft had hit a rough patch lately with three straight “meh” starts, but, again, he’s 20 years old and pitching in double-A with exceptional command and control for his age.

Sanchez is currently hitting .296/.334/.442 with six homers and five stolen bases in 355 at-bats. The 31-year-old could slot into the No. 2 hole in the lineup for San Francisco. Defensively, he plays a solid but unspectacular second base, which will help fill a season-long hole for the Giants. Sanchez definitely has an edge on defense, but is his offense really that much better than current second baseman Juan Uribe’s triple-slash line of .284/.314/.431? Is the slight offensive edge plus Sanchez’ glove really worth Alderson?

Sanchez is a nice complementary player, but he definitely should not have cost an A-level pitching prospect. In five years, this (panic?) trade is going to hurt.

P.S. The Pirates just got more value for Sanchez than Ricciardi could drum up for Halladay. That has to burn.

The Yankees made a move for a pitcher today. Not Roy Halladay or Jarrod Washburn, but instead the Rockies Jason Hirsh. Acquired for the cost of a player to be named later, Hirsh is only two seasons removed from Baseball America ranking him as one of the 50 best prospects in baseball. At the time, Hirsh was fresh to the Rockies scene. Acquired in the Jason Jennings deal, Hirsh snapped a power fastball and good breaking pitches from his 6’8” frame.

Hirsh has since suffered through a number of injuries. A broken right fibula and sprained right ankle cost him more than four months in 2007 and rotator cuff inflammation sidelined him for nearly as long in 2008. In between visits to the trainer’s table, Hirsh pitched in a little over 100 innings with the Rockies, posting a FIP over 5.

As an extreme fly ball pitcher, Hirsh gets his fair share of home runs hit against him. Hirsh pitching in New Yankee Stadium against the AL East is about the worst combination possible. For the time being the Yankees are simply throwing Hirsh into a minor league rotation. Maybe they try him as the long reliever at some point down the road – Brett Tomko was designated for assignment to clear room for Hirsh – but it’s hard to envision Hirsh getting more than a throwaway start this year.

As for the Rockies return; who knows. Hirsh certainly didn’t hold much value for them, and if nothing else it could free up a 40-man roster spot for another acquisition.

The Associated Press noted today that an exam on Randy Johnson’s throwing shoulder Monday revealed some tearing in his rotator cuff. Johnson, who already had not played since July 5th when he hurt the shoulder batting of all things, was moved to the 60-day disabled list making him eligible to return September 5th.

It is unclear at this point how major the tearing is, but obviously any tearing in the rotator cuff is not a good sign. Surgery was apparently discussed and decided against at this point, likely in the hopes that Johnson can come back and pitch a bit in September should the Giants still be in the playoff race.

It is worth noting that Johnson this year has managed to remain close to his old self. The strikeouts are down, the walks up, but his real downfall has been a spike in home run rate. All that said, though, his xFIP of 3.83 and tRA* of 4.40 both show him to be better than league average still.

What is even more unclear is Johnson’s future. Surgery of any type would seem likely to cut into his availability for 2010 and the rehab for a 45-year-old would be tougher than usual. Could this mark the end of Randy Johnson’s Major League career? I certainly hope not and hopefully we get some more information in the coming weeks as to the extent of the injury.

Ruben Amaro has taken a lot of crap from the sabermetric community since stepping into the role of Phillies GM. He just built himself a really huge wall today, though, with the outstanding acquisition of Cliff Lee. Amazingly enough, he was able to get one of the game’s best pitchers without surrendering any of his highly coveted talents.

Instead of giving up J.A. Happ, Kyle Drabek, and Dominic Brown or Michael Taylor to get Roy Halladay, Amaro managed to hang onto all four and get Lee instead. This is simply a fantastic deal for the Phillies, who add a frontline starter for 2009 and 2010 without giving up any players that were going to help their team in the short term.

Lee, you know about – last year’s AL Cy Young winner, he reinvented himself and has sustained his excellence this year as an All-Star caliber LHP. The Phillies hold a no-brainer club option for 2010 at just $9 million, making him a massive bargain. He’s a top shelf starting pitcher making a fraction of his value and without a long term commitment required. He’s an extremely valuable asset.

To get him, they gave up a good teenage arm currently on the DL with shoulder problems in Jason Knapp, a solid pitching prospect that is a lower risk/lower upside guy in Carlos Carrasco, and decent-but-not-great infield prospects in SS/2B Jason Donald and catcher Lou Marson.

Put simply, the Indians should have done better than this or just kept Lee. For a +5 win pitcher, they got quantity over quality, and all four of the guys they acquired come with pretty significant question marks. Carrasco’s probably the best prospect of the bunch (his upside is lower than Knapp’s, but the risk is much, much lower), but none of these guys are premium, high value guys.

Sorry Cleveland – you got hosed here. This is just not a good deal for the Indians in any way, shape, or form. Ruben Amaro just cleaned Mark Shapiro’s clock on this trade.

Unfortunately, I was not well enough prepared for the trade deadline this season and the server FanGraphs is running on couldn’t quite take the traffic load. Sometime tonight FanGraphs will be down for approximately 30 minutes for server upgrades which will hopefully allow for a much smoother running FanGraphs. Thanks for your patience!

It’s no secret that I’m both a Mariner fan and an Ian Snell fan, as I’ve been lobbying for the M’s to acquire the guy from Pittsburgh for the last two months. I laid my reasons for liking Snell at the time, and his Triple-A performance hasn’t lessened my enthusiasm.

So, when the Mariners actually go out and trade for Snell, you would think I’d be a happy man. However, my first reaction when I heard about the deal that sent Jeff Clement, Ronny Cedeno, Brett Lorin, Aaron Pribanic, and Nathan Adcock to Pittsburgh for Snell and Jack Wilson was “yuck”.

Let’s start with what the Mariners are getting. Wilson is a really good defensive shortstop who can hit well enough to justify his place in the line-up. Despite a lack of power and an aggressive approach at the plate, he’s still been a +1.5 to +2.5 win player for most of his career. He’s essentially a league average shortstop, and at $7.25 million in salary for 2009 with a team option at $8.4 million for 2010, he’s not overly expensive for what he is. He’s a solid role player who does enough things well to earn his contract and won’t hurt the team he’s playing for.

But he’s also 31 years old, and while he’s not overly expensive, he’s not a bargain either. Adam Everett is a similar player and signed a 1 year, $1 million deal with the Tigers last winter. Wilson’s salary makes him a small asset, not a big one. He’s not the kind of player the Mariners should be giving up significant pieces to attain.

So, that leaves Snell as the main piece of value coming back. While I’m a fan, I also saw him as a buy-low opportunity, as he was done in Pittsburgh and everyone knew it. He’s not an ace – he’s a guy with good stuff and average to below average command and some well documented issues with his prior organization. I don’t like the word headcase, but when you’re talking about a guy who would rather pitch in Triple-A than the majors, it’s hard to argue with.

Snell’s contract is better than Wilson’s, as he makes just $4.25 million next year and then has two club options for 2011 and 2012 that could be bargains if he rebounds to prior form. But there’s obviously the risk that he won’t, and then you’re looking at getting one year of Snell and letting him leave. He may be a long term asset… or he might be a one year flop.

For two guys with minimal value, the Mariners parted with five young players.

Clement’s the big name of the bunch, as a LH DH/1B/C? with power who had no future with the Mariners. He can hit righties, but his ability to do anything else is questionable. His knee problems have kept him from catching, and the bat might not be good enough to make him more than a solid 1B/DH type, especially if he can’t figure out LHPs.

Cedeno is a solid utility infielder who plays good defense at SS/2B, but can’t hit. He’s a nice role player, but basically the definition of replacement level.

It’s the three pitchers that the team gave up that pushes the deal in Pittsburgh’s favor. Pribanic and Lorin were the teams 4th and 5th round picks in 2008, and both had impressed in their first year as professionals.

Pribanic’s an extreme groundball guy who throws strikes but lacks an out-pitch, so he profiles as a #5 starter or a good reliever. If his breaking ball improves, he could beat that upside, though.

Lorin’s a good command guy with a nice breaking ball and an average fastball, plus some projectability as a big guy (6’7/250) who hasn’t had much experience on the mound. If he adds a couple of MPH to his fastball, he could be a mid-rotation starter.

Adcock had struggled of late with his command, but as a 21-year-old with a decent fastball-curveball combination and the ability to get groundballs, he’s also an interesting arm. Getting him out of High Desert should give Pittsburgh a better idea of where he stands right now.

They’re all just decent pitching prospects instead of good ones, so the M’s gave up quantity over quality, but the old cliche about building a rotation by getting a ton of arms and seeing who sticks is really true. The M’s had done a good job of collecting an inventory of decent arms, and they just depleted that fairly heavily, while also giving up a LH power bat, for two guys with marginal value.

Pittsburgh is the easy winner of this deal, as they get some interesting young talent and shed some salary without losing much that will hurt them. The Mariners could still salvage this by moving Wilson before Friday’s deadline for a younger SS with more long term potential, but if they stand pat with Wilson as the team’s shortstop for 2009 and maybe 2010, color me disappointed.