The Giants finally ended their long pursuit of a first baseman, acquiring Ryan Garko from the San Francisco Giants, reportedly for LHP Scott Barnes. Garko is a clear upgrade and should boost the San Francisco offense, but the price is really steep for what Garko is.

As a 28-year-old right-handed first baseman with limited defensive value, Garko has to really mash in order to maintain his value. His entire value is wrapped up in his performance at the plate, but Garko’s bat is just good, not great. He has power, but isn’t a pure slugger. He makes solid contact, but doesn’t walk all that much. The total package has added up to a career .352 wOBA, which makes him a solidly above average bat, but when that’s the only thing you bring to the table, the overall value is just okay.

Garko’s been worth +4.0 wins over his 1,587 major league plate appearances, which makes his contributions thus far a little bit below average. At 28, he’s in his prime, but there doesn’t seem to be much upside beyond what he is now. ZIPS projects a .344 wOBA going forward, though that would jump with a move to the weaker National League. Overall, he’s probably a +2 win player.

He replaces Travis Ishikawa, who is certainly an inferior player to Garko, but not without his uses. Ishikawa’s a solid fielder, which helps make up a bit for his lack of offense, but Ishikawa shouldn’t be starting for a contending team. However, since he’s not a total black hole (+0.9 wins in 237 PA this year), this upgrade seems fairly minor. Especially over just two months, the upgrade from Ishikawa to Garko is in the fractions of a win.

To get that upgrade, the Giants had to part with Scott Barnes, a 21-year-old LHP who Baseball America rated their 9th best prospect before the season and has impressed with his performance in the hitter friendly Cal League this year. He’s a good command lefty with better stuff than your average good command lefty, and he was considered a 2nd-3rd round talent last year before falling the Giants in the 8th round of the draft. He’s not one of the premier pitching prospects in baseball, but he’s the kind of good arm that could turn into a quality pitcher down the road.

Barnes is a high price to pay for an average-ish first baseman like Garko. He is under club control for 3+ seasons after this one, but as an arbitration eligible player this winter, he’s about to stop being cheap, and he’s not the kind of player you want to be spending significant money on. The Giants will pitch this as more-than-a-rental, but finding a RH first baseman who can hit a little bit isn’t that difficult, and whether Garko will be worth much more than his arbitration salaries going forward is a real question.

This isn’t a terrible trade for San Francisco – they did improve their team, at least a bit, and they get back a player that they control past 2009, but they paid a premium for that upgrade, and Garko’s probably not going to be enough to put them over the top. This seems like going half way – giving up part of your future for a move not quite good enough to make the present much more interesting.

For the Indians, they get another look at Andy Marte and a nifty pitching prospect for a guy that is fairly easily replaced. Good move for Cleveland – not as big a fan of San Francisco’s end of this.

Rickey Henderson and Jim Rice were the only two breathing players inducted into Cooperstown this weekend. It didn’t have to be this way though, and frankly it shouldn’t have been since Tim Raines belonged right alongside them. Excuse me for drop-kicking a dead horse – smarter, better writers than I have taken it upon themselves to make the case – but, take a look at the graphical argument for.

Let me preface the wOBA comparison by saying that I’m well aware most members of the BBWAA have little idea as to what the metric is, where to find it, or how it relates to on-base average. Notice that Henderson is simply on another planet, but Raines isn’t any further back than Rice at any point and actually has a longer career. Our version of wOBA takes stolen bases into account, so Henderson and Raines, two base stealing juggernauts, are naturally affected for the better.

Moving on to the actual on-base metric, Raines is right there with Henderson, ahead of Rice. You can call it unfair that Rice is being compared to two lead-off hitter types, but it is what it is. We’re not ignoring slugging – in which Rice should have the clear advantage – either, as you can see here:

As expected, Rice dominates. Raines is no Juan Pierre by comparison though, and with the exception of Henderson’s 1990 season in which he went absolutely batty. Finally, some will want batting average taken into consideration. It does nothing but help Raines’ case:

Raines matches or exceeds the new inductees in each ‘slash’ stat, yet he was at home yesterday while the other two were celebrated for their achievements. It’s an injustice, hopefully one corrected next year.

The Cleveland Indians and St. Louis Cardinals organizations officially closed the book on the Mark DeRosa trade when right-hander Jess Todd was sent to Cleveland on Sunday as the Player to be Named Later. The Indians also received second-year reliever Chris Perez, 24, when the trade originally occurred on June 27, 2009.

The addition of Todd to the deal swings this trade in Cleveland’s favor, even if you don’t consider the wrist injury to DeRosa (torn tendon sheath), which has slowed the veteran infielder. Yes, DeRosa is a valuable player, but both Perez and Todd have set-up man and/or closer potential in the back end of Cleveland’s bullpen. These are not just two right-handed, middle-relief pitchers. Perez, a former supplemental first round draft pick, already has eight career saves in 78 MLB games. DeRosa, 34, is also a free agent after the season.

Todd, a second-round pick from 2007, has saved 24 games in triple-A this season. Last year, the 23-year-old hurler made 24 starts over three minor league levels and posted solid numbers. He performed both roles in college, as well, and has the potential to develop into a No. 3 Major League starter, if Cleveland chooses to place him back in the starting rotation.

Todd’s numbers in triple-A this season as a reliever have been excellent. In 49 innings, he’s allowed 39 hits with a walk rate of 2.39 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 10.84. He’s also allowed just three home runs and he’s limited opposing batters to a line-drive rate of 14%. His repertoire includes a plus cutter, a fastball that can touch 94 mph, and a good slider.

Cleveland paid a reasonable price to acquire DeRosa this past off-season from the Chicago Cubs. I took a look back at the trade last week. The Indians essentially gave up one B-level pitching prospect in Jeff Stevens, and two C-level pitching prospects in Chris Archer and John Gaub. All three prospects, though, have seen their values rise in 2009. In trading DeRosa mid-season, the Indians got back a young MLB reliever with closer potential (and experience) and a low A- or high B-level prospect in Todd (as well as half a season of DeRosa’s production). In other words, Cleveland bought low on DeRosa and then sold high on the veteran. The Indians did not win just one DeRosa trade; it won both.

Over the weekend Matthew noted that the only starter who comes close to getting as many swinging strikes as called strikes is Rich Harden. He does it with just two pitches, a four-seam fastball and a changeup. Sliders and curves, generally, get the most swinging strikes so that makes Harden’s feat that much more amazing. Harden used to throw a splitter and a slider as well, but gave them up in hope of decreasing his injuries.

Harden four-seam fastball averages about 92 mph with over 10 inches of ‘rise’. The fastball has a 18.7% whiff rate (misses per swings). Among starters only Ted Lilly, Jonathan Sanchez, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer have fastballs with a higher whiff rate.

His changeup is an even bigger reason for his huge number of swinging strikes. Hitters miss 48% of the time they swing at his change. As Harry Pavlidis highlighted that is the third most of any pitch in the game, and tops amongst changeups. The changeup has about 8mph separation from his fastball, with less tail and ‘rise’. Because he lacks any other secondary pitches he throws the changeup almost equally to lefties and righties, about 37% of the time. Harden starts about a third of of his at-bats with the changeup and has had better results when he pitches it before his fastball (1.3 runs per 100 above average) then when he throws it after (0.6 runs per 100 above average). This is the opposite of what we saw with Tim Lincecum. Hitters must be expecting the fastball on the first pitch of the at-bat and the changeup trips them up.

Harden’s results so far this year have been poor, but that has largely been driven by his high BABIP and HR/FB. His K and BB rates are inline with his career numbers, so going forward we should expect him to be very good.

According to this DL tool it looks like Harden has spent 26 days on the DL this year and 38 in 2008 way down over from 100 days in both of 2007 and 2006, so it looks like getting rid of the splitter and slider may have helped him stay healthy. That left him with two pitches, both of which rack up tons and tons of swinging strikes. It as a testament to how those pitches are that he can succeed as a starter with just the two pitches.

Over the last few weeks, a couple of players with disputed defensive reputations have been traded. Nyjer Morgan was posting crazy good UZR numbers as a left fielder in Pittsburgh, and his outfield defense was the primary reason the Nationals acquired him. However, when the deal went down, a decent contingent of people claimed that Morgan’s numbers were inflated due to park effects in Pittsburgh that weren’t accurately being accounted for. The claim was that Morgan’s defensive numbers were inflated due to the context he was playing in.

Likewise, when the Mariners traded Yuniesky Betancourt to Kansas City, Dayton Moore caused quite the stir when he stated that he had no faith in metrics like UZR due to their unreliability. Betancourt is kind of the anti-Morgan, with horrifically terrible UZR numbers, but enough defensive talent that he should be better than what the metric indicates he’s performing at. Again, the question of context was raised – would Betancourt’s UZR improve once he got out of Seattle?

So far, we’ve only got a couple of weeks of data to look at, but the answers to date are resounding.

In 160 innings in center field since being traded to Washington, Morgan has a +4.9 UZR, which translates to +26.5 UZR/150. That’s actually higher than his UZR/150 while playing left field for the Pirates. If there was something about playing half his games in Pittsburgh that inflated his numbers, it apparently went with him to Washington. Or, more logically, it never existed in the first place. In reality, he’s just a fantastic defensive outfielder, no matter where he plays.

Betancourt? Still terrible. In 81 innings for KC, he’s posted a UZR of -1.8, which is a -25.2 UZR/150. That’s even worse than the level he was playing at for Seattle. Since Moore claimed it was obvious which players are good with the glove when you watch them on the field, I wonder how he’s felt about his new shortstop the last week and a half, where he’s been failing to get to balls and costing his pitchers outs. But hey, at least he’s posting a .156 wOBA, so it’s not all bad right? Oh.

Billy Beane said he wanted the equivalent of two-first round draft picks in order to trade Matt Holliday. Asking price paid. Not only did Oakland pry Brett Wallace away from St. Louis, but two other solid prospects in RHP Clayton Mortensen and OF Shane Peterson.

Drafted in the 2007 draft 36th overall as a senior out of Gonzaga, Mortensen came with more projectability and less polish than your typical college pitcher. Despite that, Mortensen found himself pitching in Triple-A just a year after he was drafted. Tall and gangly at 6-4, 180 pounds, the Cardinals loved his 90-93 MPH sinker. This past season 55% of the balls his opponents put in play were of the worm burning variety. Mortensen struggled with walks (4.73 BB/9) and homers (1.35 HR/9) but this year he’s improved his control (2.91 BB/9). Mortensen has two average secondary pitches that have shown above average potential at times – a slider that he throws to right-handers and a change-up to lefties. He looks more like a back-end starter right now, but as he tightens up his secondary offerings, he has #3 potential.

Shane Peterson was the 59th overall pick in the 2008 draft out of Long Beach State and it’s easy to see his appeal to results-oriented drafting teams like St. Louis and Oakland — amongst other things, he posted a .506 on-base percentage his junior year. Peterson has odd looking hitting mechanics. He’s a front foot hitter, but he has good bat speed and a high finish that helps him get a little bit of loft. He plays first base and can play any outfield position, but his lack of range makes him better suited for a corner spot. Peterson walked in 14.5% of his plate appearances for short-season Batavia, while also striking out nearly a third of them. This season he’s cut down on the K’s but also the walks that he was known for in college; his walk rate has hovered around the 6%-7% all season. Because of his funky hitting approach, he doesn’t hit for much power and he has the career.124 ISO in the minors to prove it. Scouts see him more as a 4th outfielder, but it looks like Oakland will try him in center. If he prove that he can stick there, his bat could have some value.

Since we’ve already covered Mark Buehrle’s perfect game, a large comeback with a controversial ending is our game of the week.

Gio Gonzalez pitched horribly from the get go. After forcing two quick outs in the first, he issued walks to Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer before yielding a three-run shot to Jason Kubel. With the bases loaded in the second, Justin Morneau worked a full count before popping ball deep down the right field line that landed in the bleachers. Just like that, the score was 7-2. Three pitches later Cuddyer struck again, connecting with a solo shot. The Twins put runners on the corners before Gonzalez would finally escape the second.

The third would be no different. Already trailing 8-2, Gonzalez would have two runners on as Justin Morneau came up again. On a 2-2 pitch Morneau homered again. With an 11-2 deficit, 1% chance of winning and Cuddyer due up, Santiago Casilla entered the game. He would allow an unearned run, but kept the score intact over the next inning and two-thirds.

In the third Matt Holliday double, Jack Cust would single, and Daric Barton hit a two-run homer, putting the A’s seven back. In the fourth Holliday homered with a runner on, making it a five run ballgame. After a sac fly in the 5th, the A’s trailed 7-13 entering the bottom of the seventh. Brian Duensing would walk Barton and allow two singles before being removed. An Orlando Cabrera double pushed two runs in. Then Scott Hairston walked and Matt Holliday would get a chance to tie the game. Tie it he did. A grand slam from Holliday ended Bobby Keppel’s night after only three batters.

Ron Gardenhire brought Jose Mijares into the game and probably regretted it a pitch later as Cust hit a go-ahead jack. The A’s had not only came back from 10 down, they were now in position to win the game.

Flash forward to the ninth with Michael Wuertz on the mound. Cuddyer would double, putting the tying run in scoring position. An intentional walk later, Wuertz would throw a wild pitch that bounced deep into the cavernous foul territory. Cuddyer would round third and head home, sliding underneath the tag, but still being called out. Game over and without any instant replay, the Twins could do nothing but yell.

The ending is unfortunate because A) the call looked to be incorrect and B) took away the thunder and buzz from the A’s impressive rally. Not every day do you see teams who rank in the bottom half of the league in offense score 10 runs within one game. 14 runs? No way.

Garrett Jones was drafted by the Atlanta Braves with the last pick of the 14th round in 1999 as a first baseman out of Victor J Andrew High School in Illinois. Jones failed to do much of anything at all in three years at Rookie ball and was dropped by the Braves in 2002. A mere three days later he was picked up by the Twins and sent to A ball where he proceeded to post a .610 OPS in the Midwest League. Despite that, Minnesota advanced him to High-A the following year, 2003, and then to Double A in 2004 despite still posting sub 700 OPSs.

Something clicked in Double A though and in 122 games in New Britain, Jones flipped out to hit .311/.356/.593 with 30 bombs. The year literally came out of nowhere as his previous high was a .756 OPS he posted in his third season in Rookie ball. 2005 saw Jones moved up a level for the fourth consecutive year, to Rochester. Jones backslid there to a .741 OPS. For the next three years, through last season, Jones would remain starting in Triple-A, posting .733, .807 and .821 OPSs.

A Minor League free agent this winter, Jones signed with Pittsburgh and resumed his Triple-A career in Indianapolis. He continued his modest gains, hitting .307/.348/.502 until getting the call up to Pittsburgh on July 1st with the trade of Nyjer Morgan to Washington.

Given his first regular taste of starting in the big leagues, Jones has certainly seized the opportunity. To be clear, Jones is DH-material in the field, but right now his bat is doing all the talking. In 19 games so far, and 84 trips to the plate, Jones has 26 hits, a whopping 17 for extra bases including 10 of them for home runs. His seven walks to 12 strikeouts represent a career best BB/K ratio too. Jones’ current line stands at .342/.398/.842!

He is certainly not going to keep this up, but it is an really interesting story for a guy who spent three years being unable to hit his way out of Rookie Ball and four years being unable to hit his way out of Triple-A.

UZR stats will be updated this Monday instead of the usual Sunday for this week only.

Update: UZR stats have now been updated through Sunday, July 26th.

I have mentioned a few times about how Zack Greinke gets nowhere near enough press attention, especially for his level of success this year. Well, as far as the latter point goes, move over Greinke because here comes Felix Hernandez.

Take a look at Felix’s last eleven starts, from a Matthew point of view (that is, looking at the numbers that I care about):

I prefer tRA to FIP, but even if you do not, you should get the general picture here. A 12% swinging strike rate coupled with over 50% of batted balls being on the ground? Yee-haw!

For years and years, the Seattle blogosphere cherished and also admonished Felix Hernandez, cursing him for throwing too many fastballs, which many of us felt, and the pitch type values back up, was/is Felix’s worst offering. Which is not to say that it is bad, certainly not, but rather that it is a testament to just how good his off speed and breaking pitches are.

A funny thing happened though, instead of throwing fewer fastballs this year (64.2% versus a career mark of 60.8%), Felix has instead simply thrown better ones. It was always one of the possible paths of improvement that we in Seattle talked about, it just seemed the least likely and more difficult of the two. Perhaps throwing all those fastballs has finally paid off with improved command. We will never know. Frankly, I do not much care. I know I get to watch this guy pitch every five days or so, hopefully for a long while, and that is all I need right now.