These Dodgers just cannot be stopped.

With the game tied 2-2 in the 6th inning, Bronson Arroyo found himself in a jam with the bases loaded and only one out. Chad Billingsley was due up and was pitching well, having fanned 7 batters and allowed just 2 ER on 93 pitches, but manager Joe Torre opted to go all in and let Manny Ramirez pinch hit. Ramirez was not in the lineup because of a bruised left hand suffered the previous night.

Dusty Baker then countered with his sinker-balling reliever Nick Masset in hopes of inducing a double play. Instead, Manny hit a laser beam into the left field stands, also fittingly known as the “Mannywood section”. Dodger Stadium erupted into a total frenzy. Ramirez ended up taking two curtain calls. It also just so happened to be Manny Ramirez bobble-head night.

Some fans and members of the media are already calling this as one of the greatest moments in Dodger history, going so far to compare this moment to Kirk Gibson’s triumphant limp around the bases of Game 1 of the ’88 World Series. Yeah, I don’t think so, but there is a definite lesson here.

Sorry, self-righteous sports writers. Next time you feel like writing some high-horsed column about how steroids are the epitome of evil in baseball, go back and watch the Manny Granny and watch the fans go completely bananas. It is hard proof that the majority of fans really don’t give a rip about PEDs.

Prior to the 2009 season, the Chicago Cubs traded infielder Mark DeRosa to the Cleveland Indians for three players that fell into the B- or C-level prospects category. DeRosa was then traded from Cleveland to St. Louis midway through the season when Cleveland fell out of the playoff hunt (for big-league reliever Chris Perez and a PTBNL). Let’s see how those three prospects from the initial trade are doing in the Chicago system.

Jeff Stevens: Stevens is the first player from the trio to have an impact at the MLB level for the Cubs. The right-handed reliever has yet to allow a run in four innings of work. In triple-A, he had a 2.18 ERA (3.03 FIP) with 25 hits allowed in 41.1 innings of work. Stevens could end up as a key arm in the bullpen as the club races for a playoff spot in 2009. ETA: Now

John Gaub: The southpaw began the year in double-A where he allowed 19 hits in 28.2 innings of work with a walk rate of 5.34 BB/9 but a strikeout rate of 12.56 K/9. Gaub, 24, has now allowed one hit in 5.2 triple-A innings, with three walks and four Ks. In his career, left-handers are hitting just .158 against him, so he could have a career as a LOOGY if he cannot sharpen his command and control. ETA: Mid 2010

Chris Archer: This 20-year-old right-hander has moved very slowly through minor league baseball, due mainly to his poor control. This season in low-A, Archer has allowed just 50 hits in 71.2 innings. He does, though, have a walk rate of 5.53 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 10.93 K/9. He has the potential to be a quality starter, but if the control does not improve, he’ll end up as a middle reliever. ETA: Late 2011

In these types of trades, where you go for quantity over quality, you’re basically hoping to hit on one of the three prospects. All three players in this swap, though, have shown improvements since coming over to Chicago from Cleveland. This trade is a perfect (and rare) example of what can happen when a general manager executes a successful trade of a veteran player who has just one year left on his existing contract.

At best, DeRosa will go on the free agent market as a B-level free agent, which will earn the Indians Cardinals one supplemental first round draft pick in the 2010 draft, if DeRosa signs with another club (and St. Louis offers him arbitration). The trio of Stevens, Gaub and Archer is certainly worth much more than that.

This one has the most effective change-up amongst all relievers. Two quick facts about the pitch: 1) It averages a velocity in the upper-60s; 2) It’s not a change-up at all. I’m talking about Reds reliever Daniel Herrera, best known as the other other guy in the Josh Hamilton trade. In nearly 40 innings this season Herrera has posted a pretty decent FIP despite a fastball that average less than 84 miles per hour.

Before getting to the graphs, here’s a first person scouting report:

DRH: I throw a 4-seam fastball, cutter, sinker, slurve, change-up, and screwball. I will obviously carry the junk-ball tag because I don’t throw hard and I’m effective with my offspeed pitches, but my approach to hitters is different from your typical pitcher. I find value in movement and deception so I like to incorporate different speeds and arm angles to get outs.

Basically: if a pitch exists, Herrera probably has a grip for it. Coincidentally the screwball is a pitch that isn’t too reliant upon its grip, but rather that arm movement that goes with it. Since Herrera is a lefty, his screwball acts like a reverse slider and breaks away from right-handed batters.

Looking at one of Herrera’s game charts and trying to identify the pitches is a nice challenge. Below you see a ton of random dots, with pitchfx identifying his change-ups and sliders in two different quadrants. That’s never a good thing. So how can you attempt and identify which pitches are which? By using the other game chart graphs.

Here you see the horizontal movement and velocity. Since the two fastball dots are easily the hardest thrown pitches in this game, it’s a safe bet to assume those are correct in their label. The three pitches in the bottom left quadrant appear to be what Herrera would call his slurve, and the five pitches in the bottom right are his screwballs. The one change-up just floating there seems to be his sinker.

I’m not belittling the pitchfx classification system or telling you to not trust our pitch types/values; sometimes players like Herrera simply cause everything to go nutty. As a 5’7” lefty with a screwball, I think he’s used to that reaction.

Numerous sources are reporting that the Cardinals and Red Sox have agreed to swap Chris Duncan and Julio Lugo. The move comes not too long after the Red Sox designated Lugo for assignment, giving the team a small window to trade, release, or place him on waivers. Previous reports suggested Boston was desperate to move Lugo, so much as to placate potential suitors by accepting a fringe prospect and biting most – if not all – of his remaining salary.

The move was predicated on Lugo clearing waivers, which he did this afternoon. I just wrote about Lugo, saying he was essentially a league average bat with some glove issues at shortstop. Boston is paying for the rest of Lugo’s deal, so St. Louis is receiving a virtually free reserve middle infielder and one superior to Tyler Greene at that.

Chris Duncan is the son of Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan. As you can imagine, Pops reportedly wasn’t too thrilled, nor was manager Tony LaRussa. Whether the pair threatened to quit or not is anyone’s guess, but the situation in St. Louis seems rather unpleasant at this point.

In Duncan, the Red Sox get someone to show for the contract they just traded. The story on him is pretty simple. A herniated disk in his neck ended his 2008 and he’s yet to show signs of being the same power hitter as before. With regards to Duncan’s defense, he has none. Guys who flail around in the corner outfield without much success offer little in the way of defensive flexibility.

Duncan is a bit more than I expected Boston to receive for Lugo, but I guess it works out since St. Louis is a team with a hole to fill and without much faith in Duncan’s recovery.

With all the talk about Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee being the belles of the trade deadline ball, Matt Holliday is suddenly looking like the girl with glasses who lost 15 pounds and got lasik for her birthday. Someone would be wise to pull the baseball equivalent of asking him to dance.

After a brutal April (.240/.288/.360), Holliday has gone right back to being an All-Star caliber player. Since May 1st, but not including the two hits he already has today, he’s at .292/.394/.473 while playing his usual above average defense. Considering that those numbers are coming while playing in a good pitchers park, and Holliday’s performance should have ended any talk about him being a product of Coors Field.

ZIPS projects a .369 wOBA from Holliday over the rest of the season. If he’s traded to a team with a more hitter friendly park, that’s probably more like .375. Toss in the defense and the baserunning, and Holliday is a +4 to +5 win player going forward. Even with just two months remaining in the season, that makes Holliday about +1.5 wins compared to a replacement level corner outfielder between now and the end of the season.

While pitchers often draw the most attention at the deadline, an impact player like Holliday is going to have just as much effect on helping a team win this year. He’ll command significantly less in return to acquire than either of the Cy Young contending arms, thanks to his contract status, but for a team looking to gear up just for ’09, Holliday could be a big addition.

Two months of an all-star plus two draft picks? Holliday isn’t going to come cheap, but he’s worth it.

This week we’re taking a look at some of the leader boards in double-A and high-A ball. Today, we’ll take a look at the leaders in Isolated Power (ISO) and wOBA (For an explanation on this stat, check out HERE) among the three high-A leagues: the California League, the Carolina League and the Florida State League. I want to add a caution with this league, though. The California League, is an extreme hitter’s league, so many of the numbers are inflated. The Carolina League is also an above-average hitter’s league, although not as potent as the Cal League. The Florida State League is widely considered a pitcher’s league, so the offensive numbers will not be as gaudy.

.366- Jonathan Gaston | OF | Houston

Gaston has absolutely exploded this season, thanks in part to the launching pad that is Lancaster (and the league in general). The strikeout rate is worrisome (28.2 K%) but the left-handed hitter is also walking at a respectable rate (12.3 BB%). Gaston, 22, has an intriguing mix of power (27 HR) and speed (12 SB, 13 3B). He was barely a blip on the radar entering the 2009 season.

.300- Joseph Dunigan | 1B/OF | Seattle

If you need proof of the power of the California League, look no further than Dunigan. He had a batting average of .231 in short-season ball in 2007, and .240 in low-A ball last year. This season the 23-year-old is hitting .303 and has hit more homers (22) than he did in his first two seasons combined (18) and in half the at-bats. On the plus side, his walk rate has improved, while the strikeout rate dropped from 32.5 in 2008 to 27.8 K% this season.

.279- Alex Liddi | 3b | Seattle

Liddi could not even hit .250 in his past two full seasons in low-A ball. A move to high-A ball, though, has seen his average jump from .244 to .352 (a difference of .108). His ISO also increased from .116 to .279. A raw player when he signed, Liddi is still only 20 years old, so some of his improvement is probably for real, but he’s not THIS good. Double-A will be a real test for him, especially with a walk rate of 7.8 BB%.

.459- Thomas Neal | OF | San Francisco

Along with Gaston, Neal is one of the biggest legitimate breakout candidates in the California League. The 21-year-old outfielder spent the 2008 season rounding back into shape after missing almost all of 2007 with a shoulder injury. His power and batting average have certainly received a boost from the league, but Neal has good plate discipline for his age (10.3 BB%, 19.6 K%) and he had good power numbers in the South Atlantic League last season.

.456- Jonathan Gaston | OF | Houston

See above.

.442- Logan Forsythe | 3B | San Diego

James Darnell has received a lot of attention for his strong offensive season. However, Forsythe was drafted in the same year and has had a very nice offensive season as well – and one level higher than Darnell. After a strong first half in the Cal League, Forsythe, 22, was promoted to double-A (thus making room for Darnell in Lake Elsinore’s lineup) and he’s continued to hit above .300 with a .160 ISO and a .400 wOBA in 22 games.

.284- Cody Johnson | 1B/OF | Atlanta

Baseball players don’t come much stronger than Johnson, but the 20-year-old has significant holes in his swing. As a result, despite massive power numbers, career strikeout rate of 37% is a huge red flag for this future quad-A slugger.

.239- Pedro Alvarez | 3B | Pittsburgh

Alvarez has received a lot of attention for his low batting average, high strikeout totals and lack of conditioning, but despite everything that’s gone wrong with his season, he’s still hitting for impressive power. The 22-year-old former first-round pick received a surprise promotion to double-A recently and he is currently hitting .280 in 22 games. His power has also remained strong, although his walk rate of 5.7% and his strikeout of 34.1% suggest his numbers are set to nosedive.

.232- Brandon Waring | 3B | Baltimore

Obtained last season (along with Justin Turner) from Cincinnati in the Ramon Hernandez trade, Waring is a power-hitting third baseman who will likely struggle to hit for average in the Majors (and possibly triple-A). He’s actually done a nice job to trim his strikeout rate from an average of 33% in his first two seasons to 25.6% in 2009 at high-A ball.

.423- Kris Watts | C | Pittsburgh

Wow, a catcher with a wOBA of .423! But don’t get too excited. Watts is playing in high-A ball at the age of 25, and it’s his second straight season at the level. You also have to like his BB/K rate of 1.55.

.396- Cody Johnson | 1B/OF | Atlanta

See above.

.388- Lonnie Chisenhall | 3B | Cleveland

Chisenhall got off to a scorching start in April and May before fizzling in June (although his power remained consistent). He’s begun picking things up again and he’s still having a well-above-average offensive season, despite the off month. A little more patience at the plate (8.8 K%) could help him take his game to the next level.

.218- Dominic Brown | OF | Philadelphia

One of the names that might get dangled in a potential Roy Halladay trade, Brown is a dynamic young outfielder whose season was slowed by an injury. Despite that, he is showing increased (and somewhat unexpected) power potential in a league where it’s tough to hit for power. Brown also has the ability to steal 30 bases and play above-average defense.

.199- Chris Parmelee | OF/1B | Minnesota

A former first-round pick, Parmelee has moved slowly and quietly through the Minnesota organization. The left-handed hitter is already four years into his pro career, but he’s still just 21 years old. After struggling to hit above .240 in the past two seasons, Parmelee is up to .261 in 2009 while showing good power – and he’s trimmed his strikeout rate by 10% to 25.4%.

.198- Ike Davis | OF/1B | New York NL

Davis got off to a brutal start to his pro career in 2008 after being a first round draft pick. Last season he hit zero homers in 215 short-season at-bats and had an ISO of just .070. This season, though, he’s hit seven homers in high-A and another five since his promotion to double-A (27 games). It remains to be seen how well he’ll hit for average.

.410- Dominic Brown | OF | Philadelphia

See above.

.404- Darin Mastroianni | OF/2B | Toronto

Mastroianni had a terrible first full season in low-A in 2008 as he struggled to receive playing time behind some of the Jays’ top high school draft picks from the 2007 draft. He even moved to centerfield at one point, from his natural second base position. The speedster has blossomed this season and looks like a potential big-league utility player in the Ryan Freel mold. Mastroianni stole 32 bases in 39 attempts, before moving up to double-A, where he’s nabbed 13 bags in 14 tries.

.390- Cody Cipriano | 2B | Tampa Bay

Cipriano’s career has actually paralleled Mastroianni’s almost eerily. However, the Rays prospect doesn’t have the Toronto farmhand’s speed. Cipriano does, though, have a little more strength, although it’s gap power so he looks like a future utility player.

Let the buying begin. Today, the Boston Red Sox acquired some first base depth (also known as Mike Lowell insurance) by picking up Adam LaRoche from the Pittsburgh Pirates.

LaRoche is what he is – a slightly above average average left-handed bat who can play first without being a disaster and needs to be platooned. He’s good enough to start against right-handers for a team not in contention, but he’s a reserve on any team really trying to win.

ZIPS projects him for a .352 wOBA going forward, but switching to the AL East will hurt him a bit. His defense at first is below average, so the overall package is worth about +1 to +2 wins per season. He’s not a terrible player – just a bit below average. He’s also the kind of player you should never pay serious money to, which is why the Pirates had to be thrilled to dump the rest of the $7 million he was owed for 2009.

Boston can make this kind of move because of their financial resources – they almost certainly didn’t give up anything of value to get LaRoche, whose contract makes him a negative asset to most clubs. But, as a team with a large payroll, they have the ability to drop $3 million on a back-up first baseman for the stretch run.

Having LaRoche around won’t change the dynamics of the AL East race too much, but he does provide a stoploss option in case Lowell gets hurt again. Boston’s upside didn’t change much with this move, but they did raise their floor. LaRoche gives them the ability to not have a hole at first base, and that has value. Is it worth $3 million? If you’re the Red Sox, apparently it is.

I’d like to take this space to make an appeal to Andrew Friedman – please, go for it. You have a really good team (the best run differential in the American League, even) filled with young talent, and you got Tampa excited about baseball with a World Series run last year. Your team currently stands 4 1/2 games out of first place in the AL East and 3 1/2 games out of the top spot in the wild card standings. You’re a contender. You just need to upgrade your starting rotation.

Thankfully, there’s this guy named Cliff Lee who the Indians would be willing to part with for the right offer. He’s really good, and he’s not just a rental player – he’d help you in 2009 and 2010. You have a remarkably deep farm system, overflowing with talented guys you don’t have room for. You have guys like Reid Brignac, Matt Joyce, Wade Davis, and now Jeremy Hellickson in Triple-A. You have Willy Aybar on the bench. Your outfield is overcrowded, but someone is going to have to go to make room for Desmond Jennings eventually. You have talent to spare.

Your team is interesting and fun to watch, and better than those two things, they aren’t the Yankees or Red Sox.

Last year’s postseason was a breath of fresh air, because we didn’t have the same old series we’ve been having over and over again all decade. With the Angels pulling away in the AL West, and the two titans of payroll currently in line for playoff spots, we’re dangerously close to getting the same AL playoff series’ we’ve seen 100 times already. As a baseball fan, I’m simply asking that you give me the chance for a more interesting October.

Call up Mark Shapiro and blow him away with an offer. Stick Lee in front of Shields, Garza, Price/Kazmir, and Niemann and run down the big boys. You have talent coming out of your ears, and a real shot at winning the World Series this year. I know you love Wade Davis, but you can live without him – you have 18 other pitchers who could take his place in future seasons.

For the good of baseball, give us another post-season free of either Boston or New York.

Double plays are called the pitcher’s best friend for a good reason. I think we’re all familiar with the huge swing in win expectancy that takes place when a pitcher wiggles out of a one-out, bases loaded jam with an inning ending double play. And it is a skill for infielders; some are clearly better at turning DP’s than others. It takes talent for a shortstop to field the ball quickly and cleanly, transfer to the second baseman, the second baseman must pivot, throw accurately and quickly to first base…you get the idea. Your routine 6-4-3 double play is probably a lot harder than it looks.

One of the components of UZR for infielders is DPR, or double play runs. It is simply (and I’m quoting word for word from the site glossary) “the number of runs above or below average a fielder is, based on the number double plays versus the number forces at second they get, as compared to an average fielder at that position, given the speed and location of the ball and the handedness of the batter.”

I definitely am the wrong person to get into the nitty gritty details of such things, but I can sort through leader boards with the best of them. I wanted to look at just some of the leaders and laggards of the keystone combos. One note before we jump in (and someone correct me if I’m mistaken) but it appears to me a typical shortstop or second baseman is usually about a maximum of plus or minus three runs in pivot or starting double plays, or in other words, the difference between a very good middle infielder and a very bad one is really only about ten double plays a year. So we can say that the ability to turn a double play can be pretty overrated. Range is much, much more important.

Your 2009 Top DP Combo thus far:

Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez. Hey, we talked about these two yesterday. Wilson has been worth 1.7 DP runs, Sanchez 1.4, for a total of 3.1 runs saved in turning the double play. Compare this to…

Your 2009 Worst DP Combo:

Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla: These two are a pitcher’s worst enemy. Hanley Ramirez has been a -1.4, Dan Uggla an ugly -2.2. That’s -3.6 runs for those of you scoring at home.

Getting back to Jack Wilson for a moment, FanGraphs has UZR data dating back from 2002. Wilson is by far the leader at double play runs with +15.6. Michael Young has been the worst at -7.8, and he wasn’t moved full time to shortstop until 2004.

A word about Dan Uggla — the man is in some sort of DP slump, as the three seasons prior (2006-2008) he led all second baseman with +6 runs. In fact, his ability to turn the DP is what salvaged his defensive value. DP’s aside, Uggla was a -6.7 UZR during those seasons. Brian Roberts was the worst second baseman at -6.1. Roberts was worth 7.7 UZR before factoring DPR, so his lack of ability to turn two offset what other defensive value he added. He’s the anti-Uggla.

Finally, the best keystone combo between 2006 until now was Yuniesky Betancourt and Jose Lopez of the Mariners, who were combined for +9.8 runs, or a full win. The fact that it took one DP combo to total a whole win over three and a half seasons drives home the fact that while that the ability to turn two is important, it is not nearly as important as we might have thought. Being that Yuniesky has been so brilliant at DP’s and yet so bad at everything else is also a reminder that range is waaaay more important.

Cliff Lee’s name is going to be printed way too much in trade rumors over the next week-and-a-half. Meanwhile Cleveland’s other worthwhile starting pitcher is barely being talked about. Yes, it’s Carl Pavano. Yes, he has injury concerns. Yes, his ERA is huge. No, teams shouldn’t shy away from acquiring him for the rest of the season.

There are inherent concerns and risks associated with Pavano like with all other pitchers. Obviously prior injuries seem to plant a giant red flag on Pavano’s shoulder, but the reward could be worth the risk. Pavano’s 5.13 ERA is misleading. His FIP is a crisp 3.59; xFIP is 3.92; tRA is 4.33; and tRA* 4.49 (and remember, tRA is based on the RA scale, not ERA, so when you scale it to ERA those numbers are more like ~3.6-4.2). In words: he’s pitching quite well.

A base salary of 1.5 million can see 5.3 million tacked onto it based on starts and innings pitched. To date he’s made 18 starts and pitched 107 innings. Cots outlines his performance bonuses as:

• starts: $0.1M each for 18, 20, 22; $0.2M each for 24, 26, 28; $0.25M for 30; $0.3M for 32; $0.35M each for 33, 34; $0.4M for 35
• innings: $0.1M each for 130, 140, 150; $0.15M each for 160, 170; $0.2M for 180; $0.25M each for 190, 200, 210; $0.3M for 215; $0.4M for 225; $0.5M for 235

Let’s call the 210+ innings clauses unlikely. That takes 1.2 million off the potential books. 35 starts won’t occur, so there’s another 0.4 million. 33-34? Probably not, so goes another 0.8 million. Just like that, 2.4 million rolls off, leaving his new team with – at most – 2.9 million in performance bonuses and whatever is left from his base salary.

The new team wouldn’t have to worry about forking over a ton of cash if Pavano blows his shoulder or elbow in a few starts. Plus, given his 2.5 WAR to date, he’s almost certainly going to be worth more than his second half salary. Mark Shapiro and company really did a knock up job with those incentives. The reasons to deal him are pretty obvious. A free agent as year’s end, Pavano will not bring back a compensation pick and for reasons already discussed, Pavano is not the best bet for a long-term extension.

With their playoff chances nearly flat-lining, the Indians would be wise to take their chances with Pavano on the trade market; just as a NL team without the chips for Roy Halladay or Lee should inquire on Pavano.