Continuing on with the trade value series.

#25: David Price, LHP, Tampa Bay: 0.2 WAR

The adjustment from bullpen playoff hero to front of the rotation starter has been rougher than planned, as Price’s command has been miserable this season, but he’s still showed ace-in-the-making stuff. Once he gets a little more confidence in his change-up, watch out. The major league contract he signed as the top pick in the draft makes him more expensive than most pitchers with his service time level, but he’s still a remarkably big bargain, and he won’t be eligible for free agency until after 2015.

#24: Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington: 0.0 WAR

I debated leaving him off the list since he hasn’t signed yet, but in reality, his situation isn’t that much different than an arbitration eligible player. He only has one team he can sign with, but enough value to command a pretty hefty contract. I’m anticipating that he’ll sign a major league deal worth around $25 million over six years, and even with his unproven nature, that kind of price tag for an arm like Strasburg’s is something every team in the league would covet.

#23: Justin Verlander, RHP, Detroit: 4.3 WAR

Verlander has made The Leap this year and is now one of the game’s most dominating power arms. He’s going to pass his strikeout total from last season before the end of July, as he’s dialed his fastball back up to 95 and is just throwing it past people. Unfortunately for the Tigers, they didn’t get him locked up long term before the breakout, so now they’re going to have pay through the nose for his final two arbitration years.

#22: Curtis Granderson, CF, Detroit: 2.2 WAR

Chronically underrated, Granderson is a true star, offering power, speed, patience, and premium defensive value in one package. He’s one of the best all around players in the game, in his prime, and under contract for $24 million through 2012 with a club option for 2013 that will probably be picked up. If he hit for a higher batting average, he’d get more notice, but he doesn’t need to in order to be a star. He’s already one.

#21: B.J. Upton, CF, Tampa Bay: 1.8 WAR

Pretty soon, we might just have to label Upton a tease. He has all the skills, and after a dominating October, he looked poised for a huge year. Instead, he’s regressed a bit, and at 25-years-old, we’re still waiting for him to put it all together. Even with the .239 batting average, he does enough other things (especially on defense) to be valuable, but he could be so much more than the +4 win player that he is now. With arbitration coming this winter, and the Rays depth of outfield talent, it will be interesting to see how patient Tampa is with him.

One of the surprising Rookie of the Year candidates this season has been the Cubs’ 26 year-old righty Randy Wells. His 1.6 wins above replacement are 2nd among National League rookies behind Colby Rasmus’ 3.0, and he’s been one of the North-Siders most pleasant surprises of the season after taking a long and winding path to the big leagues.

Wells originally was drafted in 2002, and after three seasons of stalling as a no-hit catcher in the lower minors, the Cubs put his strong arm on the mound. There his career gained traction, at least for for a while. His head bumped up against a glass ceiling once he hit Triple-A. After two solid but unspectacular season in Iowa, he looked to have been freed when Toronto selected him in the Rule 5 draft in 2007. After pitching just a single inning of mop-up duty against the Red Sox, the Jays returned him back to the Cubs, where he went on to post another Randy Wells, 4.00 FIP type of season back in Des Moines.

On the strength of an improved slider this season, Wells was dominating Triple-A this season. When Carlos Zambrano hit the DL back in May, he was recalled and struck out 5 Brewers over 5 scoreless innings, and has since been a staple in the rotation, forcing Sean Marshall to the bullpen.

Wells has a four pitch mix with a fastball, sinker, change-up and slider, and as I noted, it’s the slider that’s been the major key to his success. In fact, it’s been a “one-win” pitch, with a pitch type value of 11.0 runs. Only Zack Greinke’s and teammate Ryan Dempster’s sliders have been more valuable. Looking at each pitcher’s PitchFx overviews here at FanGraphs, each pitcher throws different variations of the pitch. Maybe my colleague Dave Allen will treat us to some in-depth study on One-Win Sliders some day, but for now I’ll approach this quick-and-dirty like in order to give you a better idea about Wells’ slider. Here’s their average pitch FX Horizontal and Vertical Movement for his slider compared to Dempster’s and Greinke’s.

Wells appears like he’s throwing almost more of a slider/cutter hybrid compared to Dempster and Greinke, with more sweep and less sink. Someone who knows a lot more about PitchFx than I, Harry Pavlidis, notes the same thing, and gave the pitch a delightful name – the slutter.

ZiPS expects Wells to come back to earth a bit, projecting a 4.23 FIP the rest of the season. Assuming he hits 150 innings, he looks to be in line for a 3 WAR season. For a returned Rule 5 pick, you can’t really ask for a lot more than that. Wells has shed his Quad-A label, and it’s always fun to see a pitcher put a new trick into his bag and succeed.

Stan Musial’s legacy has come under discussion with the All-Star festivities taking place in St. Louis. Dave Brown at Yahoo! Sports asks why the guy isn’t more celebrated. Joe Posnanski is easily one of baseball’s most popular writers — widely read by fans of sabermetrics and superb writing alike — has repeatedly hammered Musial’s nail into our memory banks as one of the best ever to play. Still, the message seems to have either been ignored or largely forgotten until this week.

Present day fans of the Cardinals are spoiled much like fans of the Musial days. Sure, the Cardinals have some holes, and yeah, they’ve only won a single World Series with Pujols, but I’m guessing none of them would trade the experiences with Albert Pujols for another world title. Not because they don’t care about winning or anything silly like that, but because Pujols is as close to a deity as baseball has right now. He’s the type of player that, even if you can’t afford him in talent or dollars, teams should send their scouts to watch. To appreciate.

Few would argue Pujols’ placement amongst the all-time greats. He is only 29-years-old and it’s hard to see Pujols sliding off the mountain top anytime soon. He is beyond the point of being discussed as a potential legend, he is one. He’s a player we’ll tell our grandchildren about in the same tone – with the same exuberance and respect – as the older generations talk about Musial. That makes it only fitting that the two share more than a team in common:

Pujols’ line acts like a shadow to that of Musial’s. Think about how many players outhit Pujols through age 29. Five? Maybe six? Hitting better than Pujols is the baseball equivalent of outmaneuvering Alexander the Great or outwitting Kurt Vonnegut. It happens, but not too often. Musial and Pujols have nearly identical wOBA, but Musial racked up 7,320 plate appearances after turning 30-years-old. Will Pujols? Can he hold the same level of performance if he does? Probably not, and that’s why we should think of Stan Musial in higher terms than we do.

Because we don’t keep the All-Star game in the database and it will be “gone” by tomorrow, here’s the 2009 all-star game graph and stats if you want to see them later:

Continuing on with the trade value series.

#30: Josh Johnson, RHP, Florida: 3.4 WAR

This is what Ubaldo Jimenez would be with better command. The strikeouts and groundballs skillset is an ace package, and Johnson throws strikes too. His present value is extremely high, though health concerns and the fact that he’s a free agent after 2011 make this the highest he’ll ever rank. Still, a 25-year-old ace making $1.4 million this year? Teams would be killing themselves for a shot at the guy if Florida made him available.

#29: Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Los Angeles: 1.9 WAR

Kershaw’s stuff is so good that even with well below average command at age 21, he’s still a good major league pitcher. He’s certainly still a work in progress, but there’s enough present value, combined with his enormous potential, to place him here during his pre-arb years.

#28: Chad Billingsley, RHP, Los Angeles: 2.4 WAR

Here, we start to get into the list of guys who just aren’t going to get traded. The Dodgers aren’t giving up their ace – he’s 24, he’s a frontline starter who they have under club control through 2012, and even with his arbitration reward coming, he’ll be vastly underpaid the next few years. Like Kershaw, he could stand to throw a few more strikes, but that’s just nit-picking.

#27: James Shields, RHP, Tampa Bay: 2.8 WAR

He might not have dominating ace-like upside, but his present value is remarkable – a durable, strike throwing machine who misses bats with a devastating change-up. His contract is unbelievably team friendly, as he’s owed just $7 million combined the next two years, then three low cost team options kick in, reducing the risk while also keeping him in Tampa Bay long term.

#26: Jay Bruce, RF, Cincinnati: 1.0 WAR

Don’t overreact to the .202 BABIP that has sunk his performance this year – he’s a 22-year-old monster power bat with defensive value as an outfielder. There’s legitimately best-player-in-baseball upside here if Bruce reaches his full potential, and he’s already a solid player. The Reds have a cornerstone foundation piece, as long as they don’t break him while trying to improve his batting average.

It’s great when things work out as planned. The San Francisco Giants management no doubt has its collective fingers crossed that catching prospect Buster Posey’s promotion from high-A to triple-A goes smoothly. If it does, the organization can bid farewell to incumbent MLB catcher Bengie Molina, whose contract is set to expire at the end of the 2009 season. The changing of the guard could save the club about $5.5 million per year, at least until Posey hits arbitration.

The club’s first-round selection (fifth overall) from the 2008 draft out of Florida State University, Posey was originally a high school shortstop, who moved behind the dish in his sophomore season of college. The right-handed hitter took to the position immediately and is well on his way to becoming an above-average backstop and future Gold Glove candidate. Despite having a few rough edges behind the plate, Posey has made just four errors in his pro career (70 games) and he’s thrown out 47% of the runners attempting to steal against him. He’s also made huge strides in his game calling and receiving.

At the plate, the Georgia native swings a potent bat. Prior to his promotion, Posey was hitting .326/.428/.540 with 13 homers in 291 at-bats. He also had as many walks as strikeouts (45) and was perfect running the bases (six steals in as many attempts). Posey was hitting .280 against right-handed pitchers and .440 versus southpaws. He hit more than .357 in each month except May, when he slumped to a line of .245/.319/.382.

Posey’s promotion to triple-A was actually supposed to have happened a few weeks ago but a mild concussion slowed the transaction. After he hit .405 with 10 RBI in the previous 10 games, though, the Giants organization pulled the trigger. The 22-year-old backstop appeared in just 10 games in 2008 after signing his $6.2 million contract, which makes his quick ascent through the minors in 2009 all the more impressive.

Molina has been a solid and consistent performer at the plate and behind the dish for the Giants over the past three seasons. However, he’s turning 35 next week and his body type does not age well. If he’s open to the suggestion, the Giants could bring him back on a one-year deal to serve as Posey’s mentor.

Last night Tim Lincecum was the youngest pitcher to start an all-star game since Dwight Gooden. Lincecum is having a great year, striking out over 10.5 batter per nine, with, having cut his walk rate for the third year in a row, a K/BB over four. He is best known for his electric fastball, but interestingly this year he is throwing it a bit less (59% of the time versus 66% of the time in 2008 and 2007) and the average speed has dropped from 94 mph to 92.5 mph. It looks like Lincecum is learning to take a little off the fastball and mix in his curve and changeup more often.

His curveball is quite good, worth about one run per 100 pitches over the past three years. It is has lots vertical movement-12 to 6 break-and induces nearly a 30% whiff rate. He throws it about equally to lefties and righties, about 16% of the time.

His changeup is a great pitch. He throws it more to lefties (24% of the time), but still throws it to righties fairly often (16%) a testament to how good it is. The pitch has been worth 5.28 runs per 100 pitches this year, which is just incredible. Of pitchers who have thrown more than a handful of changes the next closest is Josh Johnson‘s worth 3.8 runs per 100. Among starting pitcher’s changeups it is second to only Rich Harden’s in whiff rate. It is a huge reason for his success.

Of course you cannot evaluate his changeup in a vacuum, since its success is predicated on his fastball. Here is the average run value, change in run expectancy, of changeup based on the number of fastballs that preceded it in an at-bat. The numbers are averaged over his career not just 2009.

+-------------------+----------------+
| Num. Preceding FB |  Run Val of CH |
+-------------------+----------------+
| 0                 |         -0.014 |  
| 1                 |         -0.026 |
| 2                 |         -0.028 |
| 3                 |         -0.023 |
| 4+                |         -0.010 |
+-------------------+----------------+

After the first fastball the success almost doubles, where it stays until, as the at-bat lengthens, it falls back off. The two pitches average about 9 mph difference in speed. Here is the change in run value for his changeup based on its difference in speed from the previous fastball. The gray lines are error bars.

As you can see the success of Lincecum’s changeup is very much influenced by his fastball. When he is throwing it 8 to 10 mph slower than his fastball (as he does on average) he is successful. When it gets too slow or too fast, he is not as successful.

Changeups have no platoon split and as with other pitchers who succeed on the strength of a great changeup Lincecum shows almost no platoon split. It will be fun to continue to watch the career of this great young pitcher getting it done with a superlative changeup-fastball combo.

Continuing on with the trade value series.

#35: Nick Markakis, RF, Baltimore: 0.5 WAR

After a monster 2008, his follow-up season hasn’t gone as well – his walks and power are down, and UZR no longer loves his defense in right field. The talent is still there, though, and as a 25-year-old with across the board skills, he’ll have more seasons like his 2008 in the future. The contract extension he signed will keep him in Baltimore through at least 2014, and while he’s no longer cheap, the salaries are discounted enough to still make him a big time asset.

#34: Jon Lester, LHP, Boston: 3.4 WAR

The massive jump in strikeout rate (6.5 in 2008, 10.3 in 2009) is nearly unprecedented, and K/9 stabilizes very quickly. His velocity is up a couple of ticks, and it’s made the most impact on his curve, which is now a nasty out pitch. A 25-year-old lefty with this kind of dominance unbelievably hard to find. His contract is definitely team friendly ($30 million through 2013 or $43 million through 2014), but not the bargain basement rate that others are pitching on. If he keeps pitching like this, though, this will still look like its 20 spots too low.

#33: Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP, Colorado: 3.3 WAR

This is what it looks like when a 25-year-old with the biggest fastball in the game posts a 3.23 FIP while pitching half of his games at Coors Field. Jimenez has the makings of a Brandon Webb-style groundballs and strikeouts ace, with stuff that few can match and improving command as well. He’s also due just $22 million through 2014, and the last $14 million of that is tied to club options for the final two seasons. He’s not a household name yet, but he will be if he can stay healthy.

#32: Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas: 2.8 WAR

His walks and power are up, and he’s worked hard to improve his defense at the keystone, showing that he’s not done improving despite an already strong body of work. He’s a legit 30-30 player headed into his prime and is locked up through 2013 at bargain basement rates. If he can continue to show that he’s an asset in the field at second base, than this is about 20 spots too low. Questions about whether his defensive improvement are sustainable or not hold him back for now.

#31: Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston: 2.6 WAR

The reigning AL MVP is unlikely to ever have another power spike like he did in his 2008 campaign, but he doesn’t have to if he keeps hitting .300, racking up the doubles while making obscene amounts of contact, and playing quality defense at second base. The contract extension he signed that pays him just $40 million through 2014 increases his value as well.

For an All-Star Game, I don’t think you could have asked for a whole lot more than what we saw last night. One-run baseball, lead changes, web gems and homage to Stan the Man. Not too shabby. As a Senior Circuit fan whose favorite team playing host, it was disappointing to see the NL extend it’s losing streak to yet another presidential term, but all in all it was a pretty decent night of baseball.

Carl Crawford was the right choice for MVP. I am all for rewarding defense, and any metric or fan with some sense will tell you that Carl Crawford has been the best defensive left-fielder since breaking into the league in 2002. The world got to see what Rays’ fans have been spoiled with the past decade. His play — bringing back a HR off the bat of Brad Hawpe (at least it looked like it probably would have went out) — was worth .209 of win expectancy. Add in .009 for his single in the 5th, and he edges out Mariano Rivera‘s .209 WPA, three up, three down save in the 9th. The catch was a bigger play than Curtis Granderson’s exciting, one-out triple in the 8th inning. (.167).

I personally thought Jason Werth’s catch in center field off of a hard struck ball off the bat of Justin Morneau to end the 7th was the more difficult play, but obviously Crawford’s catch ended up being more important to the game’s outcome.

Charlie Manuel’s managing irked me in that there just should never should be intentional walks in the All-Star game. The move was a product of having “this one count”, so giving Victor Martinez a free pass was somewhat understandable, but boring. Heath Bell gets his fair share of ground-balls, and Adam Jones hits his fair share of ground-balls, so from that perspective, it makes some sense. It just didn’t work out, with Jones hitting a go-ahead sac fly.

And nothing against Heath Bell, who is having a nice season and all, but I would have liked to have seen Josh Johnson get an inning. Johnson throws on average 95 MPH as a starter, and has quietly become one of the game’s best pitchers. Of course, no one knows that because he’s a Marlin. It would have been nice to see him bring the heat out of the bullpen.

The most questionable move by far was Manuel using Ryan Howard as his pinch-hitter in the 8th in the game’s most crucial situation. With two outs and runners on second and third and Joe Nathan on the mound, the outcome was all too predictable. Howard is a St. Louisan and received a nice hand, so it was a nice sentimental play, but was hardly the right choice. Joe Nathan gets plenty of whiffs and it’s a well known fact that Howard swings and misses just about more than anybody. The strikeout was a killer for the NL to the tune of a -.173 WPA. With the National League needing a single to tie or possibly even possibly go ahead, why not save Howard for the 9th when a solo homer may be needed, and let a more contact-prone hitter like Freddy Sanchez into the game?

The fact that I’m even second-guessing managerial moves means that it was an entertaining game to watch. Thankfully, games that actually matter will be back very soon.

Roy Halladay is the hottest name on the trade market; making Toronto the center of the trade universe is the addition of Scott Rolen. The Jays have made Rolen available with a season and a half left on Rolen’s contract – one that includes a no-trade clause that Rolen would presumably waive to join a contender – Cots lists an “additional $4M bonus due to Rolen in 2010”, which raises the amount owed to 20 million. That’s a steep financial price to pay for a 34/35-year-old averaging 123 games the past three years.

Rolen is experiencing an inflated BABIP, raising his wOBA to .369 on the season. ZiPS suggests that’ll come back to Earth, but that he’s still an above average hitter moving forward. Gone are the days where Rolen would accumulate 15-20 runs on defense, but he’s still very much above average. So far his UZR/150 is 5.2, last year it was 8.5, and the year before 17.9.

Rolen should be an okay gamble for an additional season, but only for teams that can run the risk of a collapse. The Red Sox and Giants make the most sense. Boston has Mike Lowell eventually coming back, but in the meanwhile could maximize their roster by shifting Youkilis back to first and throwing Rolen in at third. You have some issues as to who plays when once Lowell returns, but I think that’s a problem Theo Epstein and Terry Francona wouldn’t mind. The Giants could shift Pablo Sandoval to first and upgrade their defense and offense at once.

Rolen’s not quite the catch he was in 2002 – when the Cardinals sent Placido Polanco, Bud Smith, and Mike Timlin to acquire him – but for a team in need of a third baseman with capable bat and glove in tow, he’s probably the best option remaining.