Every once in a while a talented baseball player slips through the cracks. More often than not, though, a sudden hot streak in the Majors can be attributed to a combination of good timing and luck. It can be a difficult job to ascertain what label applies in certain situations. The Toronto Blue Jays organization is currently charged with such a task with veteran minor league 1B/DH Randy Ruiz.

The 31-year-old Ruiz is a veteran of 11 minor league seasons. He was originally signed as a non-drafted amateur free agent by the Cincinnati Reds back in 1999. He has spent time in nine different organizations. Those three things normally do not add up to create a big-league caliber player. However, Ruiz has a career minor league triple-slash line of .304/.378/.530 in more than 4,000 at-bats. He also has a chance to be named the 2009 Pacific Coast League MVP after a season that included a line of .320/.392/.584 with 43 doubles, 25 homers and 106 RBI in 114 games.

After the surprise loss of outfielder Alex Rios on waivers to the White Sox, Ruiz was rewarded for his fine triple-A season with a promotion to the Majors, which was only the second of his career (He appeared in 22 games with Minnesota in 2008). The club bumped young designated hitter Adam Lind to left field and inserted Ruiz into the DH spot. With the season the Jays organization is having, there was little to lose with the experiment. So far, the gamble has paid off. Ruiz is one of the Jays’ hottest hitters and is currently hitting .348/.400/.630 with four homers and 10 runs scored in 12 games.

Perhaps to the detriment of his career, Ruiz spent seven of his 11 minor league seasons in National League organizations. He will never be confused for a gold glove first baseman and at 6’3” 235 lbs, left field is not an option. He is perfectly suited for the designated hitter role and his minor league numbers – a consistent ability to hit .280-.310 with a respectable on-base rate and plus power – suggest that he should have been in the Majors much sooner than the age of 31.

Unfortunately, players with Ruiz’ skill set and body type tend to age pretty quickly so he likely only has a couple more years left in the tank. And with that said, he’s probably not going to keep hitting .300 at the Major League level or play at an All Star level for an extended period of time, especially with minor league strikeout rates averaging out around 28% (and a career MLB BABIP over .400). At the very least, Ruiz could fill free agent Kevin Millar’s role in 2010 by providing pop off the bench and some leadership to a team in need of a clubhouse voice. He has the chance to be a nice story and a valuable contributor to an organization that could use some good news.

Since June Phil Hughes has been recast from disappointing former top starting pitching prospect to shut down reliever. He started off as a sixth/seventh inning guy, but by mid-July had established himself as the 8th inning setup man to Mariano Rivera. His numbers are great 11.36 K/9, 2.52 BB/9, and a sparkling 1.26 ERA (1.77 FIP), but built, partially, on a lucky 0.274 BABIP and under 3% HR/FB.

This year Hughes added a cutter and got rid of his slider (this was also true of his early stint as a starter), and as a reliever has stopped using his change. So he is a three pitch guy: a four-seam fastball, a cutter and his big 12-6 breaking curve. As a reliever he throws about 65% fastballs, with the rest an equal split of curves and cutters to RHBs and almost all curves to LHBs.

In the pen everything has gotten much better, as expected. His fastball and cutter have gained speed (fastball from 91.8 to 94.5 mph and the cutter from 87 to 89 mph). Both the pitches are in the zone more often and gotten more whiffs. His fastball, as a reliever, has more rise and is higher up in the zone, making it more of an extreme whiff/flyball pitch. As a result it does not get as many ground balls, but induces more pop-ups.

It is important to remember these numbers are from just 70 innings (35 as a starter and 35 as a reliever). So there are serious small sample size issues. He is most likely performing above his true talent level as a reliever, even in indicators that are not luck based (K and BB rate, whiff rate, in zone rate). In addition as a reliever all his ‘luck’ indicators changed from unlucky to lucky. His BABIP went from .317 as a starter to .274 as a reliever, and his HR/FB from 12% to 2.9%. Pitchers have some control over these, and maybe as a reliever he can keep them lower, but some of his improvement from a starter to reliever has been luck and some, probably, over-performance of true talent.

Phil Hughes will be the Yankee’s 8th inning man for his year and the playoffs, but next year it will be interesting to see what they do. Using the FanGraphs WAR valuation an elite reliever is worth about the same as a just slightly above average starter (this year Joe Nathan is worth about as much as Tim Wakefield and Mariano Rivera is worth the same as Gil Meche). So the Yankees would have to think the difference in his performance as a starter and reliever is much larger than that of the average starter to justify keeping him in the pen next year.

Even as the Brewers have faded from playoff contention, Prince Fielder has continued to mash the baseball. He’s become more selective at the plate this season, as his next walk will match last year’s total in 150 fewer plate appearances. He’s hitting .300 for the first time since reaching the big leagues. His .419 wOBA is better than the mark he posted in 2007 when he launched 50 home runs. His UZR is -1.5, the best of his career.

At 25-years-old, Fielder is showing strong signs of improvement, and he was already a good player. His season might be so good, however, that he could be playing his way right out of Milwaukee.

Unable to come to terms on a long term contract last winter, the Brewers bought out two of his arbitration seasons with a two-season pact that paid him $7.5 million this year and will pay him $10.5 million next year. After the 2010 season, he’ll have five years of service time and be eligible for arbitration for the last time before hitting free agency after the 2011 season.

So, the Brewers essentially control his rights for two more seasons. $10.5 million is a bargain for a player of Fielder’s caliber, but that’s going to go way up in 2011 – he could easily break records for an arbitration award with another strong season as a 26-year-old next year. He’s looking at something like a $15 to $20 million payday in 2011 before he hits free agency and commands a massive contract.

$25 to $30 million for two years of Fielder is a good deal, but considering their infield depth and holes elsewhere on the roster, it might be in the Brewers best interest to field offers for their star slugger. Even without Fielder, they’d have Mat Gamel, Rickie Weeks, Alcides Escobar, J.J. Hardy, and Casey McGehee as infield options for 2010, and Felipe Lopez is certainly making a strong impression since coming over in trade.

Gamel’s defense at third has never been considered a strong point, and McGehee’s strong season plus the surplus of middle infielders gives the Brewers a lot of options at the hot corner if they shifted Gamel across the diamond. Fielder could certainly command a strong return, bringing in the kind of starting pitching help the team could use behind Yovanni Gallardo.

Trading a star player coming off a disappointing season is never an easy sell to a fan base, but given the parts that are currently in place in Milwaukee, it may very well be the best idea. Brewers fans should enjoy the rest of Fielder’s 2009 season – it might be their last chance to watch him play every day.

26-year old rookie pitcher J.A. Happ has been a revelation for the Phillies. With 10-2 record and a 2.59 ERA for a team that’s a lock for the NL East pennant, Happ may be pitching his way to the NL Rookie of the Year award.

So then, is Happ for real? That depends on what you mean by “for real”. If you mean legit big leaguer? Sure, absolutely. Is he a genuine top of the rotation starter? Well, let’s not get too worked up.

Right off the bat, his ERA-FIP differential is a striking 1.57. His strikeout (6.2) and walk rate (3.3) both are average. His HR/FB rate is 7.6%, pretty suspect, especially for a Philly pitcher. His left on base % is 86%, and his BABIP is at an unsustainably low .252 mark. His expected fielding independent ERA (xFIP) is 4.75. Reading various scouting reports on Happ, the group-think seems to be that he’s a 4th starter. That would make an xFIP of 4.75 feel about right. So there you have it. Red flags o’plenty. I would, however, expect his K’s to go up a bit based on his minor league numbers.

Digging a little deeper, let’s look at Happ’s repertoire, as this is where things get interesting. Few pitchers throw the fastball more than Happ. He throws the pitch 71.5% of the time and for a good reason, the pitch has been worth 18.6 runs above average. Pitchers that throw the fastball as often and effectively as Happ are either: A.) Flame-throwers like Clayton Kershaw or B.) Extreme sinker-ballers like Joel Pineiro. Happ is neither. His fastball averages 89.7 MPH and it’s straight as an arrow. No, really, check it out; it’s actually kind of bizarre. Here is a chart of his vertical and horizontal movement from his last start against the Mets –

The pitch, on average, has 4.5 inches less vertical movement than the average four-seamer, but three inches more ‘rise’. I have the tendency to think a pitch this straight might get punished, but it’s giving hitters fits. There’s an interesting theory out there that because of Happ’s freakishly long wingspan (he’s 6-6), he gets more extension towards home plate, making his perceived velocity to the hitter 94 MPH. That would explain a lot. It reminds me of Chris Young, pre-injury.

Young’s 7/4/07 start

To compliment the heat, Happ also features a decent slider, along with a decent change-up and curve. Put this all together and you have the marks of a solid, cost-controlled piece of the Phillies’ rotation who happens to be on one heck of a nice run at the moment. Happ has benefited from some luck, but he has been more than just lucky. He’s actually pretty good. Not this good, but better than average.

I’m grateful to Eric Seidman for sharing some of his insights for this post.

Another week, another Mets star potentially heading to the disabled list; this time, Johan Santana. MLB.com writer Marty Noble gets the impression from Santana’s teammate that he may require surgery n his left elbow. This is the passage that sticks out the most:

Manuel acknowledged being “terribly concerned,” that Santana had experienced pain in the elbow in recent starts though “not at this level,” the level he experienced in his most recent start, Thursday against the Braves. The manager also indicated Santana had not done normal between-starts throwing for an extended period.

Emphasis is mine. If Santana told the Mets he was experiencing — presumably – worse pain than usual a few starts ago, and they continued to pitch him in what amounts to a lost season, then frankly the Mets are getting their just dues here. That assumes Santana did the responsible thing by speaking up, if he didn’t, then shame on him for being selfish and trying to pitch through a potential injury. Take a look at Santana’s alarming velocity chart:

Missing the rest of this season is largely irrelevant. The Mets aren’t in any type of playoff hunt and it’s more about 2010 with them, which is exactly why this hurts if it’s a procedure that would require a lengthy recovery time. I’d rather not get into speculation, but any time one of the best pitchers is having issues with his pitching elbow, it’s no good.

Who knows what this means for the Mets’ off-season plans. After handing Oliver Perez a pricey free agent contract and seeing him implode, you have to wonder if the Mets would seriously consider handing out another big deal. If not, they could always try one of the injured pitchers on the market like Erik Bedard, Rich Harden, or Ben Sheets, but at least two of them seem incapable of staying healthy for long durations.

Still better than Nelson Figueroa though.

For the second time in three years, the Colorado Rockies are back from the dead. On June 1st, the Rockies were 20-29 with roughly 2% odds of making the playoffs per Coolstandings.com. A few days later the Rockies would start a streak of 11 straight wins and after dropping one to the Rays, would win their next six. That’s 17 victories in 18 games. Even if you assume the Rockies are a true talent 60% wins team – and they aren’t, but bare with me – and ran the odds of winning 17 games in 18 tries through a binomial distribution, you would arrive with odds of 0.01%.

So yeah, for one of the best teams in baseball there was a chance of such a run, but the odds are lower for the Rockies because we know they aren’t a team you’d expect to win 97 games. Call the run odds-defying, the Rockies did something similar in 2007 when they won 13 of 14 before downing the Padres in a tiebreaker playoff. The difference is that team’s charge came much later than their present-day brethren. Below you will see CoolStanding’s playoff odds from both years with the games played total on the x-axis. Both teams were down on their luck and up on their October tee times around the 40-45 game mark, they also seem to begin the hike around the 80-100 game mark.

The graph is cut off a bit near the end, but the worthwhile part to take from game 160’s odds is that the Rockies are currently above those odds, which were amongst the highest of their entire season. That is to say, the Rockies are in better playoff condition now than they were for most of 2007.

Mike Hampton has always been a good hitting pitcher, and even as he approaches his 37th birthday, he’s continuing to provide value with his bat. On the season, he’s hitting .324/.350/.432 for a .340 wOBA in 41 plate appearances. His offense has been worth half a run over that of an average hitter.

But, of course, Hampton isn’t replacing an average hitter on the days he swings the bat. He’s replacing an average hitting pitcher, and they perform far worse when they are called upon to hit. As a group, pitchers are hitting .145/.187/.186, which is good for about a .160 wOBA. Hampton’s rate stats are more than double what an average pitcher is producing at the plate this year.

How much does that matter? Well, over 41 plate appearances, a 180 point difference in wOBA is worth about six runs. If we knocked six runs off of Hampton’s earned runs total, his ERA would drop from 5.30 to 4.82. I’d say there’s a pretty significant perception difference between those two numbers.

In most cases, the value of what a pitcher contributes isn’t that significant. With players like Hampton, though, they really can add to their value at the plate in a way that reflects on the scoreboard, and ultimately, on their teams ability to win when they take the mound. While a .340 wOBA isn’t Hampton’s true talent level, of course, he has posted a .287 wOBA over 845 plate appearances, so we shouldn’t be totally shocked when he has a good hitting season every once in a while.

Pitcher hitting – it’s one of those small, usually overlooked parts of the game, but in some cases, it actually matters.

This is the Seventh annual report, where you the fans get to evaluate the fielding traits of your favorite players. Take a few minutes, and help me out.

First base has been a sore spot for the Arizona Diamondbacks organization for quite some time – especially in terms of power productions – and 2009 has been no different. The position has seen a number of players attempt to secure the full-time job but no one has been able to provide even league-average offense. The road to first base is littered with players such as Chad Tracy, Josh Whitesell, and Tony Clark.

The organization will now give rookie Brandon Allen a shot at the job. The big, sturdy prospect was acquired from the Chicago White Sox back on July 7. The American League club received reliever Tony Pena in return. Allen is actually the second first-base prospect that the club has received from Chicago in the past 24 months. The Diamondbacks dealt outfielder Carlos Quentin to the White Sox on Dec. 3, 2007 in exchange for Chris Carter. Carter spent only 11 days in the organization, though, before he was flipped to Oakland in the Dan Haren deal. Still with the Athletics organization, Carter is currently hitting .335/.434/.570 with 65 extra-base hits and 98 RBI in 481 double-A at-bats at the age of 22.

It’s a shame that the Diamondbacks organization was unable to hold on to Carter, but Allen represents another intriguing first-base prospect. The 23-year-old was originally selected out of a Texas high school in the fifth round of the 2004 amateur draft. It took about three seasons for him to get his feet underneath him. His career began to take off with a solid low-A ball season in 2007. Allen then followed that up with a monster year that saw him slam 29 homers between high-A and double-A.

This year, Allen began the season back in double-A. Although his power numbers were supressed a bit in Birmingham (His ISO dropped from .200+ to .162), the slugger hit for a higher average, he trimmed about 6% off his K rate (to 19.5%) and he continued to take a healthy number of walks. Once traded to the Arizona organization, Allen’s power returned and he slammed 12 homers in 142 triple-A at-bats (.324 ISO). He also maintained his improved batting average and plate rates. Although the left-handed hitter has struggled against southpaws in the past, he hit .317 against them in the minors this season and did not embarrass himself last year, either.

Allen is bound to have some ups and downs throughout the final weeks of the 2009 season, but he represents the best in-house option at the first-base position in 2010. With a little patience, he could become an above-average power source for the club. The power output would be a welcomed sight, as the club has only had two seasons in which its first basemen topped 20 home runs in its 12-year history: 1998, Travis Lee (22 homers) and 2005, Tony Clark (30) and Chad Tracy (27), although the latter also spent 51 games in the outfield.

Although I am not especially a Seattle Mariners fan, I am an unmitigated Ichiro Suzuki fan. Not only is he an incredible baseball player, he is also an amazing interviewee. Over the weekend he hit us with this.

I think there’s sexiness in infield hits because they require technique.

Ichiro provides offensive value with his above average OBP, fueled not by walks, but by limiting strikeouts and a sky-high BABIP. That is were the infield hits come in. Ichiro hits a high percentage of grounders, which have a higher BABIP than fly balls so right there we should expect him to have a high BABIP. But beyond that his BABIP on grounders in much higher than league average.

BABIP
+--------------+---------+---------+
|              |  Ichiro | Average |
+--------------+---------+---------+
| Ground Balls |   0.305 |   0.242 |
| Fly Balls    |   0.119 |   0.139 |
| Line Drives  |   0.705 |   0.720 | 
| Bunts        |   0.663 |   0.441 |
+--------------+---------+---------+

Ichiro maintains his very high BABIP by beating the league average on ground balls and bunts. He uses his speed and left-handedness (that much closer to first base) to beat out throw on balls on the ground. Beyond that Ichiro also hits more opposite field grounders than most lefties. In the histogram below 45 degrees corresponds to the first base line and -45 to the third base line.

These opposite field grounders are more likely to be infield hits because they are farther from first base. A good number of these opposite field grounders are on pitches away outside of the strike zone.

Combine that OBP-driven offensive value with great defense and almost never missing games, and you have one of the best outfielders of 2000s.