Tony Pena Jr.’s quest to reach the majors as a pitcher is going swimmingly. Over the weekend Pena Jr. made his tenth appearance as a minor league pitcher. This marked his first as a pitcher in Triple-A, and Pena Jr. did pretty well, going three innings, fanning three, walking nobody, and allowing only two hits. Previously Pena had several appearances at Class-A Burlington with 14 strikeouts in 14.3 innings being the stat of importance.

Given their aggressive approach in advancing Pena, and the fact that he’s previously pitched in the majors I’d imagine he may get a few appearances for the big league club this September. It’s not like the Royals are going to lose anything by running Pena – a pitcher who may or may not have a better shot at a major league future than countless other Royals relievers – to the mound.

I would comment that Trey Hillman and company should embrace the idea of getting familiar with all the potential nuances and advantage of Pena’s flexibility, but being in the American League means there aren’t many to take note of. Lou Piniella and Bobby Cox have shown the willingness to keep two pitchers in the game at once by taking the outgoing pitcher and placing him in the corner outfield, only to replace the new pitcher a batter or two later.

I suppose that means Pena’s greatest usage may come during interleague play. His bat is something to avoid, but he seems like a twitchy manager’s fantasy: a reliever, pinch runner, and defensive substitute rolled into one.

Note #1: A request. At the end of this piece, in the section called “Towards a Linear Weights of Joy,” I ask for actual substantive input on some questions about which I am a) curious and b) uncertain of how to answer myself. If possible, please limit your comments to the questions at hand. Having said that, I understand that some of you aren’t particularly fond of my contributions and take some pleasure in saying so. I would be remiss to rob you of said pleasure. For you, I invite you to email your complaints to ccistulli@yahoo.com.

Note #3: This crap is long. If you only read one part, read the last section, entitled “Towards a Linear Weights of Joy.”

Father of Us All Bill James writes the following in a blurb to a recent-ish release from ACTA Sports called Diamond Presence:

There are two things that one can never say often enough: one, that the game exists only to be enjoyed; and two, that there is no limit to the number of ways that it can be enjoyed. Diamond Presence shines a light upon these two truths.

First, a quick note on the source. I recognize that the literary genre known as The Blurb does not always promote integrity in its author. It’s designed to sell books and thus can fall prey to what is frequently referred to as “the Evils of Capitalism.” However, I believe for two reasons that James means what he says here. For one, he’s Bill James, and Bill James is not in the habit of making empty claims, regardless of the context. For two, James makes very similar statements in a number of the Abstracts, which texts are not in front of me here, but which I have read separately and in digested form in Scott Gray’s The Mind of Bill James. Always the sentiment from James is similar: “I have only ever used stats as a tool to further my enjoyment of the game.” In other words, James never makes the stats an end in themselves, but only as a means to the his enjoyment.

Furthermore, because he’s Bill James and more or less the progenitor of the statistical revolution in baseball, his words carry a weight that no one else’s really do. I believe that what James is doing in this blurb is what he has made it his business to do over the last 30 years: to make explicit an idea we might spend most of our time understanding only implicitly, perhaps precisely because it’s so simple a concept. Baseball exists to be enjoyed: no one would deny that claim, and yet I’m not sure we spend enough time considering it explicitly.

Let’s begin by considering the uses of the present interweb site. Ultimately, as a FanGraphs reader, my concern isn’t ever with the site’s excellent player analysis or sweet use of Pitch f/x technology, per se. Those things are great, yes, but ultimately, the reason I point my internet browser this way — the reason anyone would — is because I find it pleasing in some way. Restated: I’m interested in reading FanGraphs, in particular, and statistical analysis about baseball, generally, only insofar as it adds to my enjoyment of baseball and my overall happiness.

Which it does. But the question, which I haven’t seen answered expressly — or even asked, necessarily — is: How?

And furthermore: Are we doing the best job of enjoying baseball as possible? Are we being efficient with our time spent watching baseball?

Read the rest of this entry »

The Arizona Fall League rosters were announced by Major League Baseball last week. The league allows up-and-coming prospects (usually from high-A and double-A levels, as well as recent high draft picks) to continue honing their skills away from the fall instructional leagues held by each organization. Play will begin in early October and run until late November with the six teams – each one made up of five organizations’ players – continually facing each other.

Over the next couple of weeks, we’ll take a look at some of the more interesting names on each team. The rosters that were recently released are preliminary rosters and some players will be added, while others could be removed. Last Monday, we took a look at the Phoenix Desert Dogs. Tuesday, we had a gander at the Scottsdale Scorpions roster and on Wednesday we viewed the Mesa Solar Sox roster. Yesterday, we looked at the Peoria Javelinas roster and today we’re viewing the Peoria Saguaros.

The Peoria Saguaros (Click HERE for the entire roster)
Atlanta, San Diego, Houston, Cleveland, Cincinnati

Craig Kimbrel | RHP | Atlanta
Kimbrel was a busy man in 2009, making stops at four levels for Atlanta, so the AFL will be his fifth of the year. Combined in 2009, the reliever allowed 30 hits in 60 innings pitched. He also struck out 103 batters and walked 45. Despite his minor-league dominance, the lack of control is going to be an issue in the Majors so he has some work to do.

Chia-Jen Lo | RHP | Houston
Lo had a similar season to Kimbrel, although he pitched at just two levels. He allowed 40 hits in 64.1 innings of work with 75 strikeouts and 33 walks. His walk rate of 4.62 in double-A is too high but this was just his first year in North America after signing out of Taiwan last year.

Mike Minor | LHP | Atlanta
A 2009 first round draft pick, Minor was a bit of a reach for Atlanta’s first selection, but the club needs some upper-level pitching depth and the lefty should move quickly. He made four brief starts in pro ball after signing, allowing 10 hits and no walks in 14 innings of work. He also struck out 17 batters.

Jason Castro | C | Houston
It would not be shocking to see Castro behind the dish for Houston by mid-2010. The 2008 first-round pick had a very nice first full season in the minors and spent the last half of the year in double-A. He hit with good power in high-A ball but his ISO dropped from .208 to .092 after his promotion out of the extremely good hitter’s league and park.

Matt McBride | C | Cleveland
The Indians organization is not 100% sure what it has with McBride, who missed most of 2008 with an injury. He creamed high-A pitching but was old for the league. Upon a promotion to double-A, his batting average and on-base percentage plummeted but he still showed good power potential and struck out just 11.8% of the time. His BABIP can be partially blamed for his average.

Yonder Alonso | 1B | Cincinnati
Alonso struggled with injuries in 2009 but still played 28 games in double-A with a triple-slash line of .287/.368/.446. He doesn’t show as much in-game power as some of the other big-time first base prospects, but he’s a better overall hitter than most.

Freddie Freeman | 1B | Atlanta
Freeman, like Alonso, is a not a legit 30 home run hitter, but he has a chance to play good defense and hit .300 a few times with 20 homers. He was too advanced for high-A ball, where he began the year at the age of just 19. He finished up by hitting .248/.308/.342 in 149 double-A at-bats and should head back to Mississippi in 2010.

Lance Zawadzki | SS | San Diego
A fourth-round pick out of a smaller NAIA college in 2007, Zawadzki was selected higher than many expected but he rewarded the organization with a solid 2009 season. He split the year between high-A and double-A and showed more power at the lower level. Overall, he hit 15 homers in just under 500 at-bats. He won’t be a star, but he could be an average regular with 10-12 homers and 10-15 steals.

Jonathan Gaston | OF | Houston
Houston pulled the short straw last winter and ended up with Lancaster as its high-A affiliate. The park is perhaps the best hitter’s park in all of pro ball and Gaston enjoyed his time there immensely. He hit .280/.368/.602 with 35 homers and 119 RBI. His ISO was an incredible .322 but he struck out 31.7% of the time.

Chris Heisey | OF | Cincinnati
Heisey, 24, had a solid season in 2009 and split the year between double-A and triple-A. He has an outside shot of being the Reds’ fourth outfielder in 2010. Combined, Heisey hit 22 homers and stole 20 bases, while hitting more than .300. He is not a surefire bet to keep hitting for that kind of power in the Majors.

Jason Heyward | OF | Atlanta
Heyward could very well end up as the Minor League Baseball Player of the Year. The outfielder spent most of the year as a 19 year old and he started out in high-A and ended the year in triple-A. In between, he smoked double-A pitching and put up a line of .352/.446/.611 with more walks than strikeouts in 162 at-bats. He could be playing regularly in the Majors before his 21st birthday.

Last night Ted Lilly won a meaningless game for the Cubs. I like looking at players who succeed in an extreme or abnormal manner and Lilly is such a player. If you think the three things a pitcher has most control over are walks, strikeouts and batted ball type (grounders being good since they cannot be HRs), then Lilly succeeds by getting an above average number of strikeouts and doing a great job preventing walks, in spite of his huge number of flyballs. Over the last three years Lilly is second to only Jered Weaver with the highest FB% (48%) and the lowest GB% percentage (33%).

He has always gotten a good number of strikeouts and given up lots of fly balls, but since 2007 (his time as a Cub) he has drastically cut down on his walks making him a quite valuable pitcher over that time.

Lilly throws a four-seam fastball, a slider/cutter, a big breaking curve and a changeup. He throws the fastball about 50% of the time and the slider/cutter over 25%. He locates both in the zone very often (59% of the time for the fastball and 62% for the slider/cutter), which explains his very good walk numbers. The location of his fastball is way up in the zone.

Only 25% of the balls in play from his fastball are grounders, the overwhelming culprit for his tiny overall ground ball percentage.

Lilly is going to give up lots of HRs, but he can make it work by limiting baserunners with lots strikeouts and few walks. Long-term free agent contracts for pitchers can often be bad news, and the disastrous ones are the most publicized. Lilly represents a successful signing. In the 2007 off-season he signed a four year (2007 to 2010) 40 million dollars contact with the Cubs. He has already provided those 40 million dollars worth of value, making the rest of this year and all of next gravy.

A week ago, the Rays were still the defending American League champions, and while their playoff odds weren’t good, they had a chance. They stood at 71-59, five games behind Boston in the wild card race, but with a chance to show they could hang with the best the AL had to offer. They had eight games scheduled in the last seven days, with three against the Red Sox, three against the Tigers, and then a double-header against New York. A strong week would put them in position to chase down the wild card leaders this coming weekend when they travel to Fenway Park.

Instead, that series is now meaningless, because the Rays fell apart in epic fashion. Seven losses later and we can officially shut the door on Tampa Bay’s chances of repeating. The collapse was a complete team effort, with every part of the club destructing en masse.

The offense struck out in 29% of their plate appearances, which led to a .222 average and a .286 wOBA. The pitching staff ran up 40 walks in 70 innings, and didn’t even offset the damage with strikeouts, ringing up only 50 batters on their way to a terrible 5.45 FIP.

No one was worse than Andy Sonnanstine, whose miserable season somehow got worse. In two starts, he managed to give up 13 runs over 6 2/3 innings. J.P. allowed seven of the 13 batters he faced to reach base while pitching exclusively in high leverage situations. Grant Balfour walked four of the 10 batters he faced. Six members of their pitching staff posted a FIP higher than 6.00 in the last week. Given the disasters on the mound, its no surprise that the team allowed 6.4 runs per game.

Even improved pitching wouldn’t have helped that much, however, as the offense was nearly as bad. They managed just 29 runs thanks to the “contributions” of players like Carl Crawford (2 hits in 30 plate appearances), Akinori Iwamura (.201 wOBA), Ben Zobrist (one extra base hit), and Pat Burrell (4 for 25 with one extra base hit). The team’s best hitter over the last week was Carlos Pena, but even that ended badly when he had his hand broken while being hit by a pitch and is now done for the season.

With the collapse, the Rays have to wonder what could have been. There is no doubt that this is a talented team that they put together, with both tremendous ability and depth at most positions. However, it is not a team without flaws, and Tampa Bay will have to spend the winter addressing those flaws if they’re going to topple Boston and New York again.

2009 was a missed opportunity. If Tampa Bay wants to remain in the mix with the big money teams, they can’t afford more missed opportunities. The Rays need to reload their roster this winter, and if it takes a willingness to part with some of their young talent in order to do so, than so be it. Building for the future is great, but they can’t let too many chances to bring a World Series title slip through their grasp.

Perhaps watching the 2009 season go up in smoke in one week will instill the needed sense of urgency.

In all likelihood, the National League MVP is going to Albert Pujols for the second consecutive season, and probably rightly so. He’s at or near the top in many of the traditional and non-traditional stats and is 2nd behind Tim Lincecum in wins above replacement with 7.5.

But right there with Pujols and Lincecum is Chase Utley, with 7.2 WAR. Last year, Utley was 2nd in WAR with 8.1 and yet somehow managed to finish just 14th in the MVP voting. What will the voters do with Chase this year?

I knew Chase Utley has been underrated by the mainstream media, but I’m not sure I realized by how much. Consider this: In the past five years (including this season), Utley has been worth 37.5 wins above replacement, 2nd only to Albert Pujols, who has 39.5. That’s just freakishly impressive, and yet Utley has never finished above 7th in the MVP voting in his career. It is also worth noting that Utley has been good for a whopping 72.2 runs in UZR in the last five years, and yet has never won a Gold Glove.

While I know it’s too premature to start lumping Utley together with Hall of Famers, writers and fans have no qualms about doing the same with Pujols, so please just indulge me for a moment. Utley clearly is playing at his peak right now, and will certainly face some decline later on in his career. But if Utley were to retire after this season, he would have about 40 WAR. It took Hall of Famer second baseman Red Schoendienst 19 seasons to get to do the same. Utley has done it in eight. Alright, so that’s a little cherry-picking on my part, as we know Red was helped into the Hall by his managerial record, but Tom Tango recently looked at all position players born between 1874 and 1958 and found that 34% of players with a career WAR in the 40’s made it into the Hall of Fame. Those are some fair odds.

Looking at it from a different angle, Utley is averaging 6.9 WAR per 150 games. For a frame of reference, Jackie Robinson averaged 6.8 WAR per 150 games, the second highest among 2nd baseman in the Hall of Fame behind Rogers Hornsby, who was worth an astonishing 8.5. The great Eddie Collins is next with 6.7.

I’m not nuts enough to say that Utley is going to go on and have a career anything quite like Robinson’s or Collins’; my point is that casual fans have failed to realize just how good Utley really has been. He has been consistently brilliant now for quite a stretch.

Watch him and appreciate him, folks. I believe he’s the type of player you’ll one day be telling your grandchildren about.

The Giants are engaged in a (the) playoff race and called upon a big arm recently. Dan Runzler is still relatively new to professional baseball. After spending a few years at UC Riverside and bypassing the Mariners in 2006, Runzler was drafted in the ninth round of the 2007 draft. The 24-year-old tore through the low minors; striking out 25 batters in this first 19 innings in the system, 69 in 54 innings in 2008, and 83 in 59 innings this year.

At 6’4” and somewhere around 215 pounds, Runzler could easily pass for a football player. One glance in his direction and you expect a baseball to turn into a fireball when he loads and fires. That’s accurate (minus the pyro). As of this writing Runzler has thrown 14 pitches in the bigs and nine have been heaters. The average speed on these suckers is right around 96 miles per hour and – as best as I can tell – the velocity ceiling sits a touch above 97 miles per hour. Runzler has a violent breaking curve that darts down and in to righties and a slider to boot.

The issue with Runzler is predictable. His fastball control seems iffy at absolute best. Take a look at his unintentional walk rates through the minor leagues:

Rookie (77 BF): 7.8%
Short Season (134 BF): 17.2%
Advanced A (81 BF): 4.9%
A (220 BF): 14.1%
AA (40 BF): 15%
AAA (7 BF): 0%

The sample size is far, far too small at the AA/AAA levels to make any definitive statements about whether he can handle the majors without walking a fifth of the batters he faces. Still, it’s not unforeseeable to see Runzler draw some comparison to Matt Thornton (the M’s version) in the near future.

Today is labor day and no baseball blog is true of itself without making a post full of puns given the special occasion. With such, here are some pitchers who could use a day or nine off at this point in the season.

Justin Verlander
As I wrote elsewhere, Verlander leads baseball in starts in which he threw 120 or more pitches. This has occurred seven times this season. The two next highest pitchers in the American League have three of these games apiece. Averaging 111 pitches per game with a little over 3,200 on the season, there is a chance he will hit the 4,000 pitch mark with another seven-to-eight starts this year.

Tim Lincecum
Unlike Detroit, San Francisco won’t appear to have a chance for Lincecum to skip a start between now and season’s end. The Giants will need the live wire to maintain pace in the wild card standings. Like Verlander, Lincecum leads his respective league in games with 120 or more pitches thrown. Unlike Verlander, 4,000 pitches seems like a reach.

Roy Halladay
Did you know Halladay threw 133 pitches in one game this season? He’ll top the 200 innings mark once more, but Toronto could probably stand to pull the reins in as the season ends, if for no other reason to prevent potential injury. Yes, this is Doc, but Toronto fielded one of the best teams in baseball last year and finished fourth in their division – Lady Luck must be American.

Ubaldo Jimenez
The National League leader in pitches per game started. Same kayak as Lincecum.

Braden Looper
Oh, I’m not concerned about his workload and neither should you. He’s just not very good right now.

The Arizona Fall League rosters were announced by Major League Baseball last week. The league allows up-and-coming prospects (usually from high-A and double-A levels, as well as recent high draft picks) to continue honing their skills away from the fall instructional leagues held by each organization. Play will begin in early October and run until late November with the six teams – each one made up of five organizations’ players – continually facing each other.

Over the next couple of weeks, we’ll take a look at some of the more interesting names on each team. The rosters that were recently released are preliminary rosters and some players will be added, while others could be removed. Last Monday, we took a look at the Phoenix Desert Dogs. Tuesday, we had a gander at the Scottsdale Scorpions roster and on Wednesday we viewed the Mesa Solar Sox roster. Today, let’s look at the Peoria Javelinas roster.

The Peoria Javelinas (Click HERE for the entire roster)
Milwaukee, Seattle, Chicago (AL), Los Angeles (NL), Detroit

Phillippe Aumont | RHP | Seattle
Seattle, as per its M.O. (Modus operandi), rushed a number of its prospects through the system in 2009 with less-than-positive results. Aumont pitched very well in high-A despite playing in a very good hitter’s park and league. Moved up to double-A after 33.1 innings, the right-handed reliever saw his strikeout rate jump from 9.45 to 12.23 K/9. However, his walk rate also went up from 3.24 to 5.60 BB/9. He was hurt by a .436 BABIP.

Zach Braddock | LHP | Milwaukee
The 22-year-old Braddock had some problems early in his career while a member of the starting rotation. Injuries took a bite out of his 2009 season, but he was lights-out when he came out of the bullpen. In 39.2 innings split between high-A and double-A, Braddock allowed 24 hits, seven walks and 60 strikeouts.

Joshua Fields | RHP | Seattle
Because of a lengthy holdout before signing his first draft contract (He was also a college senior), Fields has appeared in just 31 pro games despite being 24 years old. The organization rushed him to double-A in 2009 but he imploded with a walk rate of 5.94 BB/9. His strikeout rate of 9.72 K/9 was encouraging and he allowed just 33 hits. His 6.48 ERA is not nearly as bad as it looks, with a FIP of 3.89.

Cody Satterwhite and Robbie Weinhardt | RHPs | Detroit
Detroit nabbed a number of hard-throwing college relievers in the 2008 draft, including both Satterwhite and Weinhardt. Satterwhite was the bigger name and he spent all of 2009 in double-A where he allowed 46 hits in 49.1 innings of work. He gets more than his fair share of strikeouts, but walks are a concern (4.93 BB/9). Weinhardt wasn’t taken until the 10th round, but he’s been as impressive as any other college reliever taken in the draft outside of Ryan Perry who is already pitching in the Majors. Weinhardt split 2009 between high-A and double-A. He allowed 52 hits in 63 cumulative innings, while showing average command and good strikeout numbers.

Jonathan Lucroy | C | Milwaukee
With incumbent MLB catcher Jason Kendall on his last legs, there will be an opening on the big league club before too long. As the club’s third-round pick from the 2007 draft, Lucroy is one of the favorites to fill that position in the next two years. Known for his good bat, the right-handed hitter slipped a bit in 2009 at double-A with a line of .268/.380/.419 in 418 at-bats.

Dustin Ackley | CF/1B | Seattle
Ackley has yet to make his pro debut but that will come in the Arizona Fall League. The 2009 second-overall draft pick is an advanced offensive prospect but he needs work on his defense in center field before settling in on the big-league roster. Ackley spent much of the 2008-09 college season playing first base, but his power is below average for that position.

Carlos Triunfel | SS/3B | Seattle
Triunfel was to spend the 2009 season in double-A as a 19 year old. However, he suffered an injury that wiped out almost all of his regular season. Luckily, he is back and healthy enough to participate in the fall league. Last season, he hit .287/.336/.406 with eight homers and 30 steals in 436 at-bats. A shortstop early in his career, Triunfel is expected to be a long-term third baseman, although he currently has below-average power for the position.

Jordan Danks | OF | Chicago (AL)
Danks was a little bit more advanced as a hitter than people expected and he hit .322/.409/.525 in 118 high-A at-bats. Moved up to double-A, he struggled in August and September, which brought his line down to .243/.337/.356 in 284 at-bats. His power has also diminished with each move in his pro career, with his ISO dropping from .300 to .203 to .113. Defensively, he could play in the Majors right now.

Andrew Lambo | OF/1B | Los Angeles (NL)
After a breakout 2008 season, Lambo took a step back in 2009, but he was just 20 years old for much of the season while playing in double-A. He held his own but did not dominate with a line of .254/.309/.406. He also had 39 doubles and 11 homers in 488 at-bats. Lambo was hurt by a .296 BABIP.

Although his ERA is higher than last Jon Lester is a substantially better pitcher. Last year he had very good walk (2.82 per 9) and ground ball (47.5%) rates but a slightly below average strikeout (6.5 per 9) rate. This year his walk (2.84) and ground ball (47.7%) numbers are just as good, but his strikeouts are way up (10.16 per 9 second only to Lincecum). He has gone from solidly above average performance last year to elite this year.

He throws all of his pitches about 1.5 mph faster than last year and, probably as a result, the contact rate on all his pitches is way down. This is most likely a big part of the reason for his jump in strikeouts.

Here are Lester’s pitches and a breakdown of how often he throws them.

+--------------------+-------+-------+
|                    |  vRHB |  vLHB |
+--------------------+-------+-------+
| Four-Seam Fastball |  0.34 |  0.38 | 
| Two-Seam Fastball  |  0.15 |  0.28 |
| Cut Fastball       |  0.26 |  0.14 |
| Curve              |  0.18 |  0.19 |
| Changeup           |  0.07 |  0.01 |
+--------------------+-------+-------+

The cutter-sinker (two-seam fastball)-curve combination is like that of Roy Halladay. Although Halladay does not throw a four-seam fastball. Lester throws his two-seam fastball more to lefties, against whom it moves in. And he throws his cutter more to righties, against whom it moves in. This allows him to pitch inside to both lefties and righties.

This confirms what Tony Massarotti wrote in a very good piece about how Boston pitchers work the strike zone when he noted Lester’s ability to control both sides of the plate.

Lester’s emergence as an elite pitcher combined with Josh Beckett’s continued high-level performance gives Boston a top of the rotation as strong as any other playoff contender’s.