Remember when I did that thing last week where I cherrypicked from Bill James for my own personal profit? Well, I’m about to do that again, stat. But before I do, a quick note on the title of the present document.

I don’t think I’m too far off base when I say that there comes a time in every man’s life when he begins to write for a nationally recognized, widely lauded baseball analysis website. Oh sure, it comes a little earlier for some of us — and here I’m thinking in particular of the 7-year-old Chinese prodigy Bang Qiu Nao, who’s done some excellent Pitchf/x stuff for the Chinese Professional Baseball League. For others of us, it comes later, maybe — or never at all, as was the case with my great uncle Vittorio who tended the land in Puglia, lived the country life, and wrote only about basketball.

One thing I’ve noticed in my own fledgling career as a baseball analyst is how you see a lot of guys who go inside the numbers, who look between the numbers, who claim to go beyond the numbers, or who just get all up on the numbers. However, despite some really extensive and boring research, I have as yet to find anyone willing to go athwart the numbers.

What does it mean to go athwart the numbers? I don’t know exactly. But I’m gonna try and do it: for my children, and my children’s children, and my children’s children’s children.

And while I’ll undoubtedly take all the credit for embracing this most overlooked of prepositions, I’ll be wrong to do so. I’ve stolen the idea wholesale from my friend Ross. Despite the fact that he’s recently given up on life — i.e. started law school* — when he was alive, Ross not only used athwart routinely, but he also wrote the most interesting possible article about stadium financing ever. If and when he’s allowed to actually practice law, someone should hire him real hard.

*I won’t say where exactly, but I will tell you: it’s where fun goes to die.

Anyway, like I say, Ross has left us here in Portland. We’re going to miss him. So, if you don’t mind, I’d like to pour out the first sip of this forty in his honor…

Thank you.

And now back to our regularly scheduled programming: three more from our Numbers-as-Narrative experiment.

Jeff Keppinger, Everyman, Houston
I don’t know what Keppinger’s like in real life. Maybe he cusses at strangers and kicks dogs. Maybe he stuffs ballot boxes and deals arms. But my guess is he doesn’t. My guess is, if his numbers are any indication, he’s the most considerate, responsible fellow anyone has ever met. Why do I say that? Regard (Field% and Lg Field% are at primary position only):

Season	Team	PA	K%	Lg K%	Prim Pos (Inn)	Field%	Lg Field%
2004	Mets	123	6.0%	19.0%	2B (257.2)	.987	.984
2007	Reds	276	5.0%	19.2%	SS (390.2)	.989	.972
2008	Reds	502	5.2%	19.7%	SS (880.2)	.980	.974
2009	Astros	320	11.3%	20.2%	3B (464.2)	.959	.958

These are Good Guy numbers. Keppinger has routinely struck out at a quarter or third the league rate. He’s careful. He’s capable of playing basically any position on the diamond. He’s accommodating. And when he plays those positions, maybe he doesn’t exhibit all the range in the world (his UZR/150 numbers aren’t great), but he’s sure-handed when he gets to the ball. He’s reliable.

Here’s what I think about Keppinger: I just put him down as my emergency contact number on a form I just filled out. QED.

Juan Francisco, Corner Guy, Cincinnati
Francisco’s proof that, while you can’t necessarily walk off the island, you can try to jack dongers from it all the way to the major league city of your choosing.

In how many stat categories can we name the tune that is Juan Francisco? Let’s try three (not including PAs).

Season	Team		PA	BB%	K%	ISO
2006	Reds (R)	190	3.2 %	19.2 %	0.126
2007	Reds (A)	562	4.1 %	30.1 %	0.195
2008	Reds (A+)	541	3.6 %	23.8 %	0.219
2009	Reds (AA)	464	4.4 %	20.8 %	0.22
2009	Reds (AAA)	99	4.2 %	26.1 %	0.239

You could maybe even pare that down to two cats if you wanted just to use his BB/K ratios, but with them seperate like this you can really feel the hackage. Unfortunately for Francisco, these aren’t really the peripherals of a major leaguer. His BB-rates put him in Yuni Betancourt territory. His K-rates aren’t the worst, but approaching untenable (especially given the low walk rate). The guy with the most similar ratio (at the MLB level, that is)? Aaron Rowand. And even Rowand walks a little over 5% (5.5%, to be exact).

The good news for Francisco is that he’s only 22 and has only got stronger by the year. As I mention (eventually) over at Hardball Times today, he’s fun to watch when he makes contact. Ball go far, indeed!

Jaff Decker, Little Guy, San Diego
Is it too soon to declare Jaff Decker a lock for major league stardom? Probably. Is it too soon to declare him a Sabermetric Hero? No way.

Say hello to these things:

Season	Level	PA	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
2008	Rookie	216	55	36	0.352	0.523	0.541	0.509
2009	Low A	455	85	92	0.299	0.442	0.514	0.434

The 19-year-old Decker has more patience than certain Shakya Buddhists I’ve met. I swear, I don’t know if it’s a rumor, but I heard he’s got all of Thich Nhat Hanh’s Peace Is Every Step tattooed on his body. Regardless of whether that’s true, it’s obvious that Decker has an incredibly discerning batting eye.

Baseball Prospectus has Decker slashing .275/.421/.489 at his peak, with an EqA of .315 — the top projection in all the Midwest League. There are other, higher projected EqAs in the minors, but they mostly belong to physical specimens like Cody Johnson (6-foot-4, 230 lbs) and Mike Stanton (6-foot-5, 205 lbs). Decker’s listed in BA’s Propsect Handbook at 5-foot-10, 190 lbs with little projectability left in his frame. Regardless, he seems to have the chops to be a top flight hitter.

In other words: he’s a Natural.

I think most people know that the Seattle Mariners put a good defense on the field this year. I’m not sure many people realize that this may be one of the best collection of defenders we’ve ever seen.

The M’s currently lead baseball in UZR by a huge margin. They are +84.5 runs above average, more than 20 runs ahead of second place Tampa Bay. Their team UZR total is the highest of any club in our data set, which goes back to 2002. In fact, the Mariners are only the fourth team in the last eight years to post a UZR over +70. The M’s passed that mark a month ago.

Amazingly, the team has achieved a record setting UZR despite making 102 errors. Their .982 fielding percentage ranks 23rd in baseball, and they have lost 13 runs from their UZR total thanks to the miscues – only the Nationals have cost themselves more runs via the error.

In fact, if we just focus on range, which is what most people associate UZR with, the Mariners are a staggering +91.2. Last year, the Rays put a track squad on the field and led baseball in Range Runs at +69.0, and they’re basically matched that with +62 range runs this year.

The 2008 Rays got to the World Series in large part because of how good their defenders were at covering ground. The 2009 Mariners have been 30% rangier than the 2008 Rays. There’s a reason the team leads the American League in ERA despite ranking 9th in the league in FIP. Franklin Gutierrez, Ichiro Suzuki, and Adrian Beltre have formed the nucleus of an historically great defensive team.

On to the next position: logically being the catcher spot. Let’s jump right into the list, based on WAR of players with at least 300 plate appearances at catcher:

Joe Mauer – drafted
Victor Martinez – traded
Brian McCann – drafted
Jorge Posada –drafted
Yadier Molina – drafted
Miguel Montero – amateur free agent
Mike Napoli – drafted
Kurt Suzuki – drafted
A.J. Pierzynski – free agent
John Baker – traded

Scoreboard:
6 drafted
2 traded
1 free agent
1 amateur free agent

70% of the list was developed by their current teams. Mauer is the poster child. I feel like I should’ve added a few empty spaces after Mauer’s name because he’s just that good. He was also the first overall pick in the draft, something that none of the other catchers can say. Here’s a list of rounds in which those six were drafted:

Mauer 1st
McCann 2nd
Posada 24th
Molina 4th
Napoli 17th
Suzuki 2nd

Well that portrays the inherent wackiness of drafting catchers. I did more research on this a while back and found the difference between picking a catcher between 31st and 60th overall and picking one between 61st and 90th overall is minimal at best and that drafting first round catchers doesn’t guarantee much of anything. That last point is obvious about any position, but really, evaluating catchers is extremely tricky. Those teams that do it well at least once try and hold onto their talented backstops as much as possible; maybe that’s part of the reason that only one free agent catcher is amongst the top ten, and his reputation is that of a jackass.

Earlier we looked at where the best starting pitchers came from this year, this time let’s focus on their relieving counterparts. For the rankings I used plain ol’ FIP since relievers home run rates don’t regress to a central mean like starters and instead of the top 30, I used the top 15. Here are those players and how they were acquired by their current teams:

Phil Hughes – draft
Jonathan Broxton – draft
Chan Ho Park – free agent
Mike Wuertz – trade
Kiko Calero – free agent
Matt Thornton – trade
Brian Wilson – draft
Trevor Hoffman – free agent
Heath Bell – trade
Luke Gregerson – trade
Andrew Bailey — draft
Rafael Soriano – trade
Huston Street – trade
Joakim Soria – Rule 5
Joe Nathan – trade

The count:
7 traded
4 drafted
3 free agents
1 Rule 5

This is a similar pattern to the one established for starters. Of those acquired in trades, only Soriano and Street were truly established as top of the line relievers – although I suppose you could make the case that Wuertz was quite solid in the past as well.

Let’s take a closer look at the four drafted relievers.

Hughes was a former top-flight starting prospect for the Yankees. You have to figure he’ll make the transition back to starting at some point but Joba Chamberlain hasn’t flipped from Mariano Rivera’s Robin to the next Josh Beckett quite yet, so maybe the Yankees are hesitant to make the switch once more; no matter how easy of a long-term decision it seems to be.

Broxton too started games in the minors for the Dodgers. 50 of his 87 games came as a starter, and his numbers weren’t too poor in either capacity. The Dodgers let him make the switch full-time beginning in 2006.

Wilson is the only true reliever of the quartet. He started three games in low-A during his debut season and that was that.

Bailey started for the A’s throughout his minor league career. In fact, 47 of his 73 games came as a starter. He made the jump from Double-A to the majors this year in a full reliever capacity and hasn’t looked back.

The old adage is that anyone who can throw strikes can make it as a reliever. At the same time, a lot of failed starters are transitioned to the pen. Beyond the top 15 guys like Rivera, Jonathan Papelbon, J.P. Howell, and even Trevor Hoffman were starters at some point in their career before making the transition.

I generally try not to write about the Mariners too much here, as I figure if you wanted to read my ruminations on Seattle’s team, you’d just go over to USSM. But, last week, Felix Hernandez’s start against the Blue Jays sent me down a road that I found interesting, so hopefully you’ll forgive a brief Mariner-related post here.

On Thursday, Felix had some of the best stuff he’s ever had, including these two ridiculous “change-ups” (thrown at 91 MPH apiece) which should probably be outlawed in the interest of fairness. Even though the Blue Jays managed to get four runs off of him, thanks to a Vernon Wells home run, he was a dominating force for eight strong innings. On the same night that he set his season high in strikeouts with 11, he also ran a 15-2 groundball rate.

Generally, groundballs and strikeouts are substitutes for one another. Hitters tend to swing through pitches up in the zone more often, so there’s a trade off between K and GB. When you can rack up both in the same game, odds are pretty good that you’re going to win, because the opponents just aren’t going to be able to string together any kind of rally.

So, I asked David to query the game logs over the last eights years to find the performances where a starter racked up the most combined GB+K in the same game. Perhaps not surprisingly, the most impressive performance came from Brandon Webb. On September 21st, 2005, he faced 28 batters – 26 of them either pounded the ball into the ground or struck out. In fact, that start is one of only three games since 2002 where the starter got a grounder or a strikeout from 90 percent of the batters he faced.

The other two performances of that quality? Webb, again, on May 20, 2006… and Zach Day. Not the name I was expecting either. But on May 1st, 2003, he shutout the Brewers by getting a staggering 23 groundballs, while also mixing in five strikeouts. He faced 31 batters, and got a combined 28 grounders and strikeouts.

Injuries derailed Day’s career, so he’s not going to be well remembered by future generations, but for one day at least, he was a force to be reckoned with.

Prospect ranking season is just around the corner. In anticipation of that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The popular series is back for the second year. Previously, we looked at the Colorado Rockies.

The Graduate: Everth Cabrera | SS
A Rule 5 draft pick, Cabrera helped to fill a glaring hole in the middle of the diamond with his play at shortstop. Just 22 and with no experience above A-ball prior to 2009, the speedy infielder hit .267/.344/.366 in 358 at-bats. He also stole 24 bases but was caught seven times. He’ll also need to work on becoming more consistent, but that should come with experience. At worst, he looks like a big-league utility player.

The Riser: Sawyer Carroll | OF
There were a number of prospect who really stepped forward this year for the Padres organization but Carroll gets the nod here. He hit for average over three levels and his combined line on the year was .317/.413/.489 with 40 doubles in 479 at-bats. As a right-fielder, Carroll could stand to increase his power output (eight homers) but the .171 ISO is a step in the right direction. His plate rates were very nice with an 18.0% walk rate and a 19.5% strikeout rate. The 23-year-old left-handed batter has hit very well against southpaws in his short pro career, including .333/.423/.500 in 2009.

The Tumbler: Allan Dykstra | 1B
It came down to a coin flip between Dykstra and Kellen Kulbacki, but the former won out because the latter’s season was ruined by injury. Dykstra was the club’s No. 1 draft pick in 2008 but he’s struggled since entering pro ball and he was less-than-impressive in low-A in 2009. His line of .226/.397/.375 was just plain bad, although his walk rate of 20.2% was eye-popping. He may have actually been a little too passive at the plate for his own good. Dykstra hit just .204 with the bases empty versus .249 with runners on base. Despite the bad numbers, the 22 year old should move up to the California League in 2010. It’s a league that tends to inflate hitters’ numbers.

The ’10 Sleeper: Nick Schmidt | LHP
You have to feel sorry for Schmidt, who was cursed the moment he was taken as a first-round draft pick by the organization. He missed the 2008 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He opened 2009 in low-A ball where he dominated (as he should have given his age and experience level). He allowed just 38 hits in 51.2 innings of work and posted a strikeout rate of 10.28 K/9. His walk rate was poor at 4.01 BB/9 and it suggested that he might struggle at higher levels. That is exactly what happened when he moved up to high-A. Schmidt posted a walk rate of 5.06 BB/9 and his strikeout rate dropped to 5.06 K/9. He allowed 68 hits in 48 innings. Control is the last thing to come back after surgery, so Schmidt stands a good chance of improving in 2010.

Bonus: The ’08 sleeper was Eric Sogard. He had another underrated season, this time in double-A where he hit .293/.370/.400 in 457 at-bats. The left-handed batter doesn’t hit southpaws well (.214 in ’09) and he’s not a great defensive player so he’s likely headed for a career as a platoon or utility player.

Today’s most important game is at 7pm when the Tigers host the Twins. The Twins sit just 2 games behind the Tigers and the two teams will play in Detroit the next four games. This gives the Twins a chance to close the gap and make the playoffs.

After this series both teams play a three game set to finish the regular season this weekend–the Twins at home against the Royals and the Tigers at home against the White Sox. Minnesota needs to take at least three of four from the Tigers to have a realistic shot heading into the weekend. Just a split sends them back home still down two and they would need a ton of help from the Sox.

Tonight’s game features Rick Porcello versus Nick Blackburn. If you are a fan of strikeouts this might not be the game for you. As I noted last week Blackburn is second to last among starters with just 4.2 K/9. Porcello is not much better, sixth from last with just 4.5 K/9. What you will see a lot of is two-seam fastballs, both throw the pitch over 60% of the time. As expected by the lack of strikeouts neither two-seamer misses many bats (Blackburn’s has a whiff rate of 6% and Porcello’s 9%). Blackburn makes up for it with excellent control, only walking 1.9 per 9 (tenth best in the league), Porcello with extreme ground ball tendencies, 55% GB per BIP (fifth best in the league).

So enjoy tongith’s game, one of the most important of the regular season for both teams, and expect to see a lot of balls in play.

This upcoming free agent class has generally been derided as one of the weaker groups in recent history. After seeing the likes of CC Sabathia and Derek Lowe hit the market last winter, this group lacks the same pizazz. However, there is one area where this group of free agents is particularly strong – defense. Those in the market for premium defensive players will have a lot of options this winter.

Need a second baseman? Placido Polanco is arguably the best defensive player at the position in baseball. Felipe Lopez can field the position fairly well, too.

Shortstop? Jack Wilson, again perhaps the best defender at the position in the game, may be available (if the Mariners don’t pick up his pricey $8.6 million option). Even if Wilson doesn’t hit the market, Adam Everett will be available.

Third base is more loaded than any others. Adrian Beltre, Chone Figgins, Pedro Feliz, and Joe Crede are among the very best glove guys in the game at the hot corner.

How about the outfield? Mike Cameron, Randy Winn, and CoCo Crisp (assuming KC turns down his option) will be available.

That is a lot of premium defenders all hitting the market at the same time. Last year, we saw a glut of players with the opposite skillset – big power hitters who belong at DH. Teams forced those guys to take huge pay cuts, though it’s tough to determine how much of that was the recession and how much was a new appreciation for defense.

This winter will be a better test. Defense has been remarkably undervalued for the last decade or so, but it’s making a comeback, thanks to the successes of teams like Tampa Bay and Seattle. With a surplus of elite defenders all becoming free agent eligible at the same time, we’ll get a better view of just how much the value of defense has shifted in the eyes of major league baseball teams.

Prospect ranking season is just around the corner. In anticipation of that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The popular series is back for the second year.

The Graduate: Seth Smith | OF
He didn’t get 130+ at-bats in 2008, which is the amount needed to eliminate his rookie status, but Smith did spend more than 45 days with the club prior to roster expansion on Sept. 1. That means he was technically no longer a rookie in 2009. However, we’ll give him some props since most people didn’t realize he lost his eligibility last season. Teammate Dexter Fowler also had a nice season in Colorado, but Smith’s line of .297/.383/.520 in 323 at-bats was an unexpected bonus. He also showed solid plate rates with a 12.5% walk rate and a 19.2% strikeout rate. Yeah, he plays in Colorado but an ISO of .223 is still mighty impressive. It’s also rare for a 26-year-old player to be a reliable bat off the bench.

The Riser: Juan Nicasio | RHP
The Rockies organization is known for effectively mining talent in Venezuela but Nicasio could be a steal for the club out of the Dominican Republic. A little old for a Latin player in low-A ball, the right-hander is a late-bloomer who allowed 110 hits in 112 innings of work. Nicasio also posted a walk rate of 1.85 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.24 K/9. His ERAs were a little high in his previous two seasons (both in short-season leagues) but he has posted three solid FIPs: 3.75, 2.40, 2.57. His repertoire includes a low-90s fastball that touches 95-96 mph, as well as a slider and changeup.

The Tumbler: Joseph (Tyler) Massey | OF
The Rockies organization handed Massey some big cash to sign as a 14th round selection out of a Tennessee high school. He was young in 2009 (19) and played in full-season ball but more was expected than a line of .220/.261/.290 with just 19 extra base hits in 404 at-bats. Given that he projects to be a corner outfielder or first baseman, the .069 ISO is disappointing. Massey will be given a do-over in 2010, as he was obviously overwhelmed by the speed of professional baseball games.

The ’10 Sleeper: Radames Nazario | SS/3B
Nazario, 22, has been kicking around the Rockies system for a few years now with modest results (in part due to injuries), but he showed some signs of life in high-A. At 6’0 165 lbs, he needs to get stronger to weather the long season. He hit .287/365/.422 in the first half of the year but just .167/.220/.235 after the All-Star break. Twenty-seven of Nazario’s 89 hits were doubles, so he currently possesses gap power. With a little more meat on his bones, his ISO of .116 should climb.

BONUS: The ’08 sleeper was Eric Young Jr. and he’s finally getting the recognition that he deserves after some solid minor-league seasons. I won’t say much else because he will be on the Rockies’ Top 10 list.

For the majority of major league teams, this is the final week of their season. This means back to the planning board for the front offices as they decide whether to buy this off-season, sell, do both, or attempt to remain static moving forward. One thing is for sure: every team in the league – barring perhaps the Yankees – could use more star power. So how do you acquire stars?

Let’s start with the starting pitchers. Obviously “star” is a word with ambiguous meaning. For some it means a guy who will move tickets, sell jerseys, and land them a marquee spot in the highlights on nights he pitches. For others it means one of the best pitchers in the league whose performance should bring the attention and spotlight, but everyone knows that’s not always a guarantee.

For this set of exercises I’m choosing to define star as the latter. I’ve taken the top 30 starters as told by THT’s xFIP metric. Why xFIP? Because it normalizes home run rates and saves time in noting certain pitcher performances in ballparks like those Oakland and San Diego. From there I noted how each was acquired by their current team. Here’s the list:

Javier Vazquez – trade
Tim Lincecum – draft
Dan Haren – trade
Roy Halladay – draft
Zack Greinke – draft
Jon Lester – draft
Josh Johnson – draft
Justin Verlander – draft
Ricky Nolasco – trade
Adam Wainwright – draft
Chris Carpenter – free agent
Felix Hernandez – amateur free agent
Josh Beckett – trade
Joel Pineiro – trade
Ubaldo Jimenez – amateur free agent
Cole Hamels – draft
Wandy Rodriguez – amateur free agent
Yovani Gallardo – drafted
Gavin Floyd – trade
Brett Anderson – trade
Jorge de la Rosa — trade
Jason Hammel – trade
CC Sabathia – free agent
Ryan Dempster – free agent
Roy Oswalt – draft
Aaron Harang – trade
Max Scherzer – draft
Chad Billingsley – draft
Joe Blanton – trade
Clayton Kershaw – draft

That works out to 11 pitchers acquired via trade, 13 in the draft, 3 as amateur free agents (read: intentional in this case), and 3 as actual free agents. Of those three, Sabathia is the only one signed to a large deal; Carpenter was a pet project for Dave Duncan and a similar tale exists for Dempster’s signing.

The best pitchers in baseball aren’t being acquired on the free agent market. Teams looking for their ace pitcher this off-season should take note.