Last night the Rays lost the evening portion of a noon-dusk doubleheader. Not only did this put them at a somber 0-4 on the weekend and 0-8 on the week, but the loss actually marked the eleventh in a row. That is the longest such streak in the major leagues this season and comes from arguably one of its better squads.

Now, this team isn’t quite the one from a month ago. Carlos Pena broke a pair of fingers on Labor Day, sidelining him for the remainder of the season. In his place is Chris Richard. The rotation is featuring three pitchers in their first full pro years, including Wade Davis who went from masterful start to atrocious start in the span of a week. The bullpen has imploded on itself and the offense has chosen a poor occasion to mail at-bats in.

Losing 11 in a row is a pretty implausible for any team. Take a 50 win (.309) team and ignore strength of schedule as well as home field advantage. Just assume they have a 69.1% chance at losing each game. Over a course of 11 games that ragtag group will have about a 1.7% chance at losing all 11 in a row. That’s for a 112 loss team. The Rays are considerably better than that. To avoid argument, let’s call them a .500 true talent unit – I don’t necessarily believe that to be the case, but it’s not overly important whether you think they are a 81 or 88 win team here – and rerun the binomial distribution.

The chance of them losing 11 in a row is something like 0.05%. Yes, that’s already in percentage form, not decimal. The accompanying graph looks like this, with the win total on the x-axis and the likelihood of at least that win total occurring on the y-axis:

The Rays had similarly microscopic playoff chances entering this span of games. They pulled a statistical oddity, unfortunately for them, it’s not the opposite of what they needed.

Over the winter, the Cardinals made the controversial decision to release Adam Kennedy and replace him at second base with Skip Schumaker, a career outfielder with almost no experience at the position. They felt he was athletic enough to make the conversion and could handle the duties of the keystone well enough to justify the experiment.

Early in the season, they were taking a beating for it, as the move looked like a disaster. As RJ noted in mid-May, Schumaker had the worst UZR of any second baseman in baseball, standing at -7 runs in just six weeks of baseball. He just wasn’t making the plays necessary at the position. The learning curve had proven steep.

Schumaker’s UZR since May 17th? -0.7. After a rough start, the best defensive metric we have thinks he’s been basically average for the last four months. Perhaps not coincidentally, the Cardinals themselves have improved a great deal since then as well, running away with the NL Central in the process. And they’ve done it by preventing runs with a heavy ground ball pitching staff.

Knowing Dave Duncan’s desire to spread the gospel of the two-seam fastball, the Cardinals know the importance of infield defense to their success. Despite the risks, they were still willing to take a gamble on Schumaker’s ability to turn himself into a decent defender at the position, and they held to their convictions even after a really bad start to the season. Their reward? A league average hitter who can hold his own as a middle infielder.

The Cardinals deserve a lot of credit for not just making the move, but sticking with it. I have a feeling they won’t be the last team to get away from strict mindsets about what types of players can play certain positions. As teams experience success moving guys like Schumaker to second base, I have a feeling we’ll see this trend take off.

Infielder Mark Hallberg entered the 2009 season as the fourth-best prospect in the Arizona Diamondbacks system, according to Baseball America. The 23-year-old hitter was originally selected by the organization in the ninth round of the 2007 draft. According to Baseball America pre-2009, “Hallberg is an organization favorite because he’s polished and has few holes in his game. He understands his game and carries out a plan everyday…”

Looking back on my pre-season report on the Arizona Diamondbacks system, “Hallberg is a middle infielder who knows how to hit. His advanced approach has helped him reach high-A ball in just his first full season… Hallberg controls the strike zone well, but he lacks power and speed, which will likely push him to a part-time role in the Majors.”

Hallberg missed a good chunk of the 2008 season thanks to an injury but he still hit .283/.357/.368 with a walk rate of 9.9% and a strikeout rate of just 10.3% in 272 at-bats. He also played well in the now-defunct Hawaii Winter Baseball league.

However, the momentum did not carry over into 2009. Promoted to double-A, Hallberg hit just .257/.325/.323 with similar plate rates in 455 at-bats. The shortstop’s OPS dropped for the third straight season from .848 to .725 to .648. His ISO went from .150 to .085 to .066. On the plus side, he suffered with a low BABIP at .280 and he had a healthy line-drive rate at 18%.

Hallberg certainly slumped in 2009 and he’s currently no threat to the enigmatic Stephen Drew, the Diamondbacks’ incumbent shortstop. Perhaps sensing that, the organization ensured that Hallberg saw ample playing time at both second base and shortstop, with some third-base action thrown in for good measure.

The former No. 4 overall prospect in the system has a long way to go to reclaim his former title. At this point, he needs to add a little more oompf to his bat to even make it as a big-league utility player. The lack of middle infield depth in the system certainly works in his favor. Hallberg will likely head back to double-A Mobile to begin the 2010 season.

I don’t know if you’ve noticed or not, but there are a lot of really good center fielders in baseball right now. There is so much talent in center field that we could be seeing the dawning of the greatest group of talent to ever play the position at the same time. Seriously, just take a look at the current crop of players manning the position.

Established All-Stars: Grady Sizemore, Carlos Beltran, Torii Hunter, Curtis Granderson, Mike Cameron

Breakout Stars: Matt Kemp, Franklin Gutierrez, Denard Span, Shane Victorino

Potential Stars: Adam Jones, Colby Rasmus, BJ Upton, Josh Hamilton, Andrew McCutchen, Dexter Fowler

Flycatchers: Nyjer Morgan, Rajai Davis, Ryan Sweeney, Michael Bourn, Coco Crisp, Brett Gardner

Solid Players: Nate McLouth, Marlon Byrd, Jacoby Ellsbury, Kosuke Fukudome, Melky Cabrera

That’s 26 players with some real value to their teams. Twenty-Six, and I didn’t even include guys like Chris Dickerson or Chris Young. Usually, you expect to find 10-15 pretty good players at any given position, some others guys who fill a need for a while, and then a bunch of old guys at the end of their careers. But this crop of center field talent is just unbelievable in its depth and youth.

Sizemore, Beltran, and Granderson aren’t exactly old men, but they’re the elder statesmen of this group that is overflowing with young stars in the making. There’s so many good players roaming CF right now that you could state that a guy like Adam Jones is a below average player for the position this year. And Jones went to the all-star game, and his place as one of the game’s best young talents is not in question.

I’m not sure I have ever witnessed this kind of influx in talent at a single position before. This is the golden age of center field.

Dan Szymborski, the brain behind the popular ZiPS projections found here at FanGraphs, has put together three decades of MLE’s available for download at the click of a mouse. Talk about a fun way to kill some time while chilling in your mom’s basement. Where have you gone, Adam Hyzdu?

Perhaps at another time we’ll dig up some of the Ken Phelpses That Never Were, but for right now I want to focus in on some interesting seasons of current minor league players. Like for instance, did you know Ruben Gotay has 102 walks this season in Triple-A? This is same Ruben Gotay that has walked 60 times in 811 big league PA’s. Instead of getting a September call-up from the Arizona Diamonbacks, a team who is probably in need of a second baseman for 2010, Gotay is playing for Puerto Rico in the Baseball World Cup in Barcelona. His MLE line for 2009 was .258/.390/.402.

—Shelley Duncan, the brother of Chris Duncan and son of Cardinal pitching coach Dave Duncan, has already experienced his Kevin Maas-like day in the sun a couple of summers ago, but he may deserve another look. That shot may not come with the Yankees again, but he has a nifty looking MLE: .262/.346/.508 with 28 homers in 461 at-bats.

–The Cardinals’ suffered through months of Joe Thurston with an injured Troy Glaus on the shelf. They also traded away their third baseman of the future (Brett Wallace) and traded for Mark DeRosa. DeRosa’s production has been down since coming over the NL, no thanks to a wrist injury – .240/.314/.417. 25-year old Allen Craig, who has played extensively at third base throughout his career. has an MLE line of .277/.327/.455. DeRosa and Holliday are both free agents at the end of the season. Craig just might be the Cardinals’ 2010 starting 3B or LF.

–The Rays got much more than a throw in for a PTBNL in the Scott Kazmir deal. Sean Rodriguez, a middle infielder by trade, put together a solid season in the power department, with an MLE slugging % of .456. The Rays already have a pretty solid core of infielders, but Rodriguez could provide a nice power boost off the bench for next year.

—John Bowker is a mystery. For Triple-A Fresno, Bowker not only tearing the cover off of the ball, but was also walking in 18% of his plate appearances. Since being called up to the Bay, he’s doing his best Bengie Molina impersonation, drawing just one walk once in 42 plate appearances. His MLE line is .283/.385/.460. That production beats the heck out of everyone else in the Giants’ lineup save Sandoval, it’s too bad he wasn’t called up earlier, and it’s also too bad he’s not really shown much in the little playing time he has received.

Download the files for some fun, and please consider giving Dan some gratuity for his efforts.

Per innings ratios are often misleading. Identical pitchers can face the same number of batters and produce the same number of walks, strikeouts, and home runs while one completes more innings than the other. Defense plays an integral part in shutting down an opposition. If one of those pitchers has the Seattle Mariners defense behind him and the other has the Boston Red Sox, then you would imagine the pitcher benefiting from Franklin Gutierrez and Adrian Beltre will complete more innings.

The more defensive independent option is to look at total amount of strikeouts or walks on a per batters faced ratio. The ratios are easy to get a grasp on and have less room for outliers (at least in theory), which is why when you see a line that features 40% strikeouts and 6% walks you feel your eyes protrude and heart beat quicken.

Then you realize those percentages belong to a hitter and the magnetic field alters in the opposite direction.

Believe it or not, that line is real, and it belongs to the M’s Greg Halman. The 22-year-old has a history of striking out a ton and not walking very much. The differences between strikeouts and any other type of out is usually overplayed, but there’s something seriously flawed about an approach when the ratio is this high at the Double-A level. His other raw tools – mostly power and speed – are impressive. Impressive enough that Baseball America named him the Mariners number one prospect entering this season. Although that ranking came with this warning:

Weaknesses: For all his upside, Halman presents more risk than most No. 1 prospects. His pitch recognition is below-average, resulting in many swings and misses and mis-hits as he chases pitches out of the zone. He’s too aggressive at the plate to execute much of a plan, and as a result he strikes out too much and walks too little.

Our minor league leaderboards only track back to 2006, but as best as I can tell Halman’s rate represents the highest in the Southern League in this time period by a decent margin. For some reason, I don’t think that’s an honor Halman cares to hold.

If you want to put a scare into a baseball fan, the easiest way is to tell him that his team’s best pitcher has undiagnosed arm soreness and has to go on the disabled list. The combination of the unknown with the historical rate of pitcher attrition will make most of them go immediately to the worst case scenario. Even when the MRI comes back clean, it’s common for pitchers to see decreased performance while they work through their issues.

Thus, worry about John Lackey was pretty widespread this spring. He spent 53 days on the disabled list with a “triceps strain” last year, and developed a bit of a home run problem when he was on the mound. This spring, he was diagnosed with an “elbow strain” and a “forearm strain”, and he spent the first two months of the season on the disabled list. Three different strains and two lengthy DL stints for a 30-year-old who carried a heavy load early in his career? You could almost hear Dr. Andrews sharpening his knives back in April.

But, after another complete game shutout last night, Lackey has shown that he’s just fine. It is almost scary how close his current numbers are to his career averages.

His career FB velocity? 91.0. His 2009 fastball velocity? 91.6.
His career K/9? 7.22. His 2009 K/9? 7.23.
His career GB%? 43.1%. His 2009 GB%? 44.1%.

Across the board, this is just a classic Lackey season – 3:1 K/BB rate, average batted ball profile, just under one home run allowed per complete game. Not only is he not having surgery, but you would be hard pressed to find any evidence that he was ever unable to pitch this year.

By beating the odds, Lackey has put himself back in line for a big payday this winter. He doesn’t do any one thing exceptionally well, but he’s above average across the board, and the total package has made him one of the most consistently solid starting pitchers in baseball. As a guy who has already proven he can get American League hitters out, he’ll be in high demand this winter. Even with a two month stay on the DL to start the year, you have to imagine that multiple clubs will be lining up to woo Lackey out of Los Angeles.

As the regular season winds down thoughts turn towards two thing: the post season and the regular season awards. Marc filled us in on the Rookie of the Year candidates and I wanted to follow up on a particular one I find particularly interesting. Andrew Bailey was handed the A’s closing responsibility early in the season–a very Oakland-like-move of trusting projectable talent in spite of lack of veteran-closing-ability.

Bailey has rewarded that choice. By any conceivable metric he has done very well, with an ERA, FIP and tRA all under 3, over a strikeout per inning and a very good walk rate. For the most part he throws three pitches: an electric 94-mph four-seam fastball, a 90-mph cutter and a curve.

He throws all three pitches to both lefties and righties, but throws the cutter more often to righties and the curve to lefties.

His fastball is really really nasty. It averages 94 mph, over 10 inches of ‘rise’ and has a 31% whiff rate (misses per swings). That is the highest whiff rate of any fastball in the game this year (recently profiled Robinson Tejeda‘s is second at 28% and then also recently profiled David Aardsma’s third at 25%). In addition the fastball is in the zone over 57% of the time. So it gives him a whiff-inducing pitch that he is still able to throw for strikes.

His curveball is one of the best from a reliever, worth almost half a win on its own. As I said he uses it very often against LHBs, against whom it moves in. Even with this inward movement to them he locates the pitch away in the zone. Here are the pitch locations with those swung at darkened and those whiffed encircled.

He gets lots of whiffs below the zone, and on contacted pitches he gets lots of grounders (over 60% per ball in play).

Bailey has been one of game’s best relievers and a legitimate Rookie of the Year choice, although I would prefer someone like Elvis Andrus who provided more value as a starting position player.

The 2009 season is winding down and we’re currently being treated to some expanded-roster action in September. As such, let’s take a look at a few hitters that could make 2010 opening day rosters for their respective teams. The players that make up this quartet do not have the highest ceilings – and probably won’t challenge for the 2010 Rookie of the Year award – but even complementary players have value in Major League Baseball (despite what fantasy baseball teaches us).

Chris Pettit: Even with Bobby Abreu and Vlad Guerrero headed for free agency, the Angels’ outfield is still pretty crowded but Pettit could sneak his way in to some significant playing time next year. The 25-year-old outfielder stumbled in 2008 but he regained his footing this season with a solid triple-A campaign in which he hit .321/.383/.482 with 30 doubles and 18 steals in 20 attempts. He doesn’t have outstanding skills, but he makes the most of what he has… which is the ability to hit .300 with gap power and 10-15 steals. Defensively, he can also play all three outfield positions.

Robinzon Diaz: Incumbent backstop Ryan Doumit had a disappointing offensive season in 2009 and the glove has never been a strong suit. Unable to build off of his breakout 2008, Doumit is currently hitting just .233/.270/.405 in 215 at-bats. Jason Jaramillo filled in for a while but he faded after the first three months of the year. As a result, Diaz might just be the best offensive bet entering 2010. Yes, the former Jays prospect had a down year in triple-A in 2009, but he’s shown a consistent ability to hit (an empty) .300. Scouts have always said he’s a talented player but his desire has been questioned, so he’s the type of player that needs to be constantly challenged. At the age of 26, and with parts of three years of triple-A experience, now is as good a time as any to see if he can realize his potential. Diaz would be a cheap option to help keep the spot warm for 2009 draft pick Tony Sanchez, who moved up to high-A at the end of the minor league season.

Kyle Phillips: Another catcher with a Jays connection, Phillips is the younger brother of former big-league catcher Jason Phillips (who also played with the Jays). Toronto signed the younger Phillips as a minor league free agent a few years ago and he’s shown solid ability with the bat, although he’s a questionable defender behind the dish. Regardless, the 25-year-old catcher could handle the job well enough as a back-up and he also has the ability to play first base and third base, so he could be an excellent third-catcher option. The left-handed hitter consistently creamed right-handed pitching in the minors. With both of the Jays’ big-league catchers (Rod Barajas, Raul Chavez) likely to file for free agency, Phillips is the best (ie. most MLB ready) in-house option to see time in 2010… at least until (and if) prospect J.P. Arencibia is ready.

Ian Desmond: The 2009-10 free agent pool of shortstops is pretty thin, with one-year wonder (and 34-year-old) Marco Scutaro at the top of the heap. The Nationals have Cristian Guzman locked up through 2010 at $8 million so he could end up being attractive to a team desperate for help at shortstop. If the club can move him (and they should even if they get little in return), the team could then turn the job over to Desmond, who has been the club’s shortstop-of-the-future for about, what, five years now? The 24-year-old infielder is coming off of his best offensive season. He hit .306 in double-A before moving up to triple-A where he managed a line of .354/.428/.461 in 178 at-bats. Desmond also improved his plate rates at the higher level.

As Bill Ladson notes, the Nationals are giving strong consideration to the idea of shifting Cristian Guzman from shortstop to second base next year, due to what they consider to be diminishing range as he ages. For now, let’s put aside the fact that UZR doesn’t exactly agree with that sentiment and address what shifting across the bag will do to his value:

Nothing.

Over the last 10 years or so, the “advanced” statistics that became popular evaluated players against a position specific offensive baseline – VORP, for example. If a shortstop and a second baseman had the exact same batting line, the shortstop would rate higher by that kind of metric, due to the fact that second baseman hit better as a group than shortstops. As such, it’s become exceedingly common to see people write things like “he’s got enough offense to be valuable as a shortstop, but he doesn’t hit enough to play second or third”.

In fact, I guarantee you that someone will write that very thing about Guzman. The perception will be that moving from shortstop to second base will decrease his value. In reality, if the Nationals are right about his reduced range, it very well could increase his value.

Positions are essentially just a way to arrange players in a manner that produces the most efficient defense possible. You can literally play anyone anywhere – there’s no rule preventing the Nationals from sticking Adam Dunn at shortstop, for instance. They realize, however, that they will field a better team by minimizing the amount of times that Dunn has to move laterally in order to make a play, so they hide him at first base.

No one would think that Dunn would be more valuable if the Nationals lined him up at shortstop. The loss of defensive value would more than offset any gain the team got from getting an extra first baseman into the line-up. So, what I’m saying isn’t even controversial, though it may seem like it on the surface – everyone agrees that there is a point of defensive ability where a player’s value increases as he moves down the defensive spectrum.

If Guzman has lost significant range (again, we’re ignoring UZR and just assuming they’re right about this for the sake of discussion), then it is quite possible that the Nationals will get a larger benefit from reducing the amount of balls hit in his direction than they would by squeezing a marginally better bat into the line-up at second base.

This is where offensive position adjustment statistics, such as VORP, fail. If the Nationals would save themselves 5 to 10 runs a year by having a better defender at shortstop than Guzman, then they’re likely to get a net gain by moving him to second base (assuming that this better defender hits like a shortstop and not a pitcher, of course). And if the move produces a net gain for the team, then it’s impossible to accept that Guzman is getting less valuable in the process.

Now, the Nationals could be wrong about Guzman’s defensive abilities, and they could be marginalizing the value of a guy who UZR thinks is still a pretty decent defender at the position. But don’t just let someone tell you that Guzman is automatically losing value because his offense doesn’t compare as well to the average second baseman. That’s only part of the picture.