If you’ve ever listened to even five minutes of regional sports talk radio, it’s very possible that you’re familiar with a certain type of caller who’s all-too-ready to propose trades on behalf of the local team. Certainly, growing up in the Greater Boston Area and listening to WEEI (“The #1 rated sports radio talk station in America,” apparently), I was privy to these sorts of calls all the time.

Because I haven’t listened to said station willingly for like 12 years, I can’t say exactly what the callership has come up with recently, but I do remember some pretty choice suggestions from my youth, including but not limited to:

*Carlos Quintana and Bob Zupcic for Frank Thomas

*Tony Fossas and Joe Hesketh for Greg Maddux

*Randy Kutcher’s moustache for the entire roster of the 1989 World Series Champion Oakland A’s

Needless to say, these aren’t trades which would’ve been entertained for even three seconds by the receiving teams’ GMs (although it is well known that Sandy Alderson likes a good moustache). Still, that never seemed to stop the callers from proposing them…vehemently.

And even though I recognize the obviously clownish nature of those caller-inners, I can’t deny that it’s occasionally pleasant to imagine being in possession of roster-shaping powers. Of course, the fantasy is the nice part about it. I don’t want to wake up early for work. I don’t want to talk a whole bunch with the media. And I certainly don’t want to feel so trapped in my place of business that I feel compelled to escape in a gorilla costume.

But so long as we’re talking about fantasy GM positions, I’m thinking I’d like the Baltimore job.

Why? Check it: these are the Orioles’ present commitments for the 2010 season (courtesy of Tim Dierkes’ excellent Offseason Outlook over at MLB Trade Rumors):

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Prospect ranking season is here. Top 10 lists will be arriving shortly and in preparation for that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The series is back for a second year.

The Graduate: Ricky Romero, LHP
A former top draft pick, Romero finally realized his potential in ’09 after making mechanical adjustments during spring training. The southpaw, who just recently turned 25 years old, gave up a lot of hits (192 in 178.0 innings), but he posted a strikeout rate of 7.13 K/9 and did a nice job of inducing ground balls with a rate of 54%. Romero was not as sharp in the second half of the year, but he also battled some nagging injuries.

The Riser: Tim Collins, LHP
Collins was signed as a non-drafted free agent out of high school because he stands just 5’6” or so. The left-hander can still get his heater into the low 90s, though, and he couples that with a nice curveball. In high-A ball in ’09, the 20-year-old hurler allowed 47 hits in 64.2 innings of work. He struggles a bit with his control (3.90 BB/9), but he posted a strikeout rate of 13.78 K/9 and his rate has never dipped below 10.50 in three seasons. Because of his diminutive size, Collins is likely limited to the bullpen. At worst he should be a Major League loogy, as he posted a 0.95 WHIP against left-handed hitters in ’09.

The Tumbler: Kevin Ahrens, 3B
The Jays’ top pick out of high school in ’07, Ahrens has struggled with his bat throughout his pro career. In ’09, he hit just .215/.282/.302 in 377 at-bats in high-A ball. His .088 ISO will definitely not cut it at third base. His batting line was hindered by his .259 BABIP. Ahrens, a switch-hitter, batted just .212/.287/.283 against right-handers. On the plus side, the prospect is just 20 years old, so time is on his side. Ahrens will most definitely repeat high-A ball in 2010.

The ’10 Sleeper: Carlos Pina, LHP
Pina, a left-handed pitcher, generates a lot of ground balls (69.0%) and he can hit the low-90s with his fastball. The 19-year-old hurler made his North American debut in ’09 and allowed just 46 hits in 51.2 innings of work. He showed good control too, with a walk rate of 2.79 BB/9. The ground-ball pitcher posted a strikeout rate of 6.10 K/9, and that should rise as he improves his command of his entire repertoire, which includes a slider and change-up. Pina’s 1.57 ERA was misleading, as his FIP was 3.39.

Bonus: Brad Emaus, 2B
Highlighted as a sleeper entering ’09, Emaus slipped a bit despite hitting very well in last fall’s Hawaii Winter Baseball league. The second baseman struggled in double-A and posted a line of .253/.336/.376 with an ISO of .123 in 505 at-bats. The 23-year-old infielder did have a reasonable walk rate at 10.5% and his strikeout rate was nice at 13.7%. His overall numbers were definitely affected by a batting average of just .122 in June. Emaus should improve upon his .277 BABIP in 2010, although he could open the season back in double-A.

Prospect ranking season is here. Top 10 lists will be arriving shortly and in preparation for that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The series is back for a second year.

The Graduate: Daniel Bard, RHP
Although Bard did not hit the magical 50 innings-pitched mark to graduate as a rookie, he did spend enough time on the Major League roster to eliminate his rookie eligibility for 2010. The right-hander burst onto the MLB scene in ’09 but then stumbled later in the year. Overall, though, he had an excellent season by allowing just 41 hits in 49.1 innings of work. He also posted a strikeout rate of 11.49 K/9. Bard struggled a bit with his command – a chronic issue – with a 4.01 BB/9. For perhaps the first time, Boston fans have considered life after closer Jonathan Papelbon. The 24-year-old Bard posted a modest 0.8 WAR out of the ‘pen.

The Riser: Dustin Richardson, RHP
Richardson, miscast as a starter, moved to the bullpen in ’09 and found great success. The left-handed pitcher allowed just 42 hits in 63.1 innings of work and posted a strikeout rate of 11.37 K/9. He also made seven appearances in triple-A and made his MLB debut… which is pretty impressive considering how bad his numbers looked in ’08. Out of the ‘pen, Richardson shows an 89-94 fastball and a good slider. He needs to improve his control after posting a walk rate of 5.68 BB/9 and he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher. In his career, he typically fares well against both right-handed and left-handed batters, but he posted a 15.92 K/9 rate against the same-side hitters in ’09. If he can continue to get right-handed batters out, Richardson has the stuff to work as a setup man.

The Tumbler: Michael Almanzar, 3B
Given a huge contract to sign as an international free agent prior to the ’08 season, Almanzar’s offensive numbers have been pretty poor. Luckily for the organization, he’s still just 18 years old. The third baseman hit .207/.261/.293 in 188 at-bats after beginning the year in low-A ball. He was then demoted to short-season ball where he hit .230/.288/.302 in 222 at-bats. The youngster needs a better approach at the plate, with low walk rates and high strikeout rates. He also posted an ISO under .100 on the year. Almanzar has been hurt by low BABIPs in his career, outside of his 23-game stretch in rookie ball in ’08, and he might need a little more focus at the plate with the bases empty (.208 average).

The ’10 Sleeper: Derrik Gibson, SS
A personal favorite of mine, Gibson had a nice first full season in pro ball in ’09. After a solid debut in ’08, the shortstop followed that up in short-season ball with a line of .290/.395/.380 in 255 at-bats. He doesn’t have a lot of power right now (.090 ISO) but he should grow into gap power. Right now, his value lies in his speed, and he stole 28 bases in 33 attempts. Gibson does a nice job of getting on base (13.3 BB%), which is nice to see in such a young player. The 19-year-old infielder also showed a promising strikeout rate at 16.5 K%.

Bonus: Nick Hagadone, LHP
In the ’08 series, Hagadone – who was coming off Tommy John surgery – was highlighted as the sleeper pick for ’09. He was having an encouraging return for Boston, although he was being used cautiously as he worked his way back from the injury. The 23-year-old pitcher made 10 starts in low-A but pitched just 25 innings. He was then traded to Cleveland in a deal for veteran catcher Victor Martinez. Hagadone made seven more starts for his new organization, but again was used sparingly and pitched just 20 innings. Overall, he showed a good fastball but he struggled with his command, which was something that also plagued him pre-surgery. The left-hander walked 24 batters in 45 innings on the year.

I was poking around the pitch type leader boards and noticed an interesting fact: Trevor Hoffman had the best fastball of all qualified relievers in 2009. His 85mph pitch beat out the likes of Phil Hughes‘s and David Aardsma’s, which were almost 10 mph faster.

When he re-signed with the Brewers I noted that he has, over the course of his career, been able to maintain a HR/FB well below the 10% expected value. Playing in Petco for a big part of his career no doubt helped, but beyond that it seems like Hoffman has the ability to depress his HR/FB, which runs counter to some of the prevailing ideas about a pitcher’s ability to control his balls in play.

These two facts, the fact that he had the best fastball of 2009 and his historic ability to depress, inspired me to look at Hoffman’s pitchf/x numbers in a little more depth. Let me say that this analysis just scratches the surface of what makes Hoffman so great. His changeup is devastating and I am sure plays a big role in his HR prevention and probably makes his fastball better. In addition, his fastball has a lot of “rise,” which plays a big role in his high IFF%. But I am going to focus on HR prevention with his fastball, and specifically HR prevention against LHBs.

A lot of attributes determine if a pitch is going to be hit for a HR, but one of the most important is its location. Obviously the height of the pitch plays a big role, but here I am going to look at the horizontal location of the pitch. Here is how HR/FB varies for LHBs against all pitchers (not just Hoffman).

So pitches middle-in are hit for HRs the most often. Now let’s look at where Hoffman locates his fastball. Gold is Hoffman and gray the average four-seam fastball to a LHB.

Hoffman’s distribution is much narrower than average. He has been very good at locating his pitch in the same horizontal area with little spread. This should not be surprising: the fastball is just 85 mph, so for him to be successful, he needs that pinpoint command. And he puts the pitch about as far away as he can and still be in the strike zone. That is where LHBs have the least power.

I usually just display the 2-foot strike zone that John Walsh described, but in this graph I add the dotted line for the specific strike zone to LHBs. The zone is called differently to LHBs, with the outside and inside edge shifted away. That makes Hoffman’s pitch locations even better. He pitches more to the extreme outside where umpires often call pitches 14 or so inches from the center of the plate strikes against LHBs.

As I said, there is a lot going on and this just scratches the surface, but Hoffman’s ability to locate his fastball very well on the outside quarter of the plate to LHBs, I think, plays a huge role in his abnormally low HR/FB rate.

With a relatively weak free agent class, at least in terms of star power, there is more chatter than usual about potential trades this winter. And one constant name that surfaces in trade speculation is Adrian Gonzalez, the Padres star first baseman. With two years remaining on an unbelievably team friendly contract (he’s owed just $10.25 million over both years), and coming off a +6.3 win season at age 27, it’s easy to understand why he’d be so highly coveted.

However, I think there are reasons for interested buyers to beware of a potential regression from Gonzalez in 2010 that could eliminate a decent chunk of his value. When you look at his 2009 performance in relation to his prior years, you’ll notice that most of the numbers are fairly stable.

Even though he hit 40 home runs for the first time, his total number of extra base hits didn’t change from 2008 – four doubles just went over the wall, and he ended up squeezing out an extra base from a fifth double that became a triple. That’s not really the definition of a large power surge.

Instead, the huge change came here.

Gonzalez drew 45 more walks than he did in 2008 while striking out 23 fewer times. This naturally caused his on base percentage to shoot up 40 points, which translated into a .402 wOBA, a remarkably impressive figure considering his home park. However, while the willingness to take first base when it was offered was noble, I have to wonder whether it was a case of an improving eye or Gonzalez just being issued a lot of unofficial intentional walks.

After being thrown strikes about 62 percent of the time in the previous three years, that rate plummeted to 56 percent last year. Were pitchers more intimidated by Gonzalez than in previous years, or did the Padres line-up simply lower the cost of issuing Gonzalez a walk to the point where pitchers simply changed their strategy? After all, the two guys who spent most of the season hitting directly behind Gonzalez were Kevin Kouzmanoff (.312 wOBA) and Chase Headley (.328 wOBA). The rest of their line-up was even worse.

With a bad offense around Gonzalez, the value of a walk by their best player was diminished, as San Diego just didn’t have enough good hitters to consistently drive him home. So, pitchers responded by reducing the amount of strikes that Gonzalez saw, and in turn, his walk rate went through the roof.

That does not seem to be a scenario that would likely be repeated if Gonzalez was traded to a better offensive club. While it’s encouraging that Gonzalez was still able to produce while being pitched around, we’d have to expect that he’s going to be thrown more strikes in 2010 if he’s traded to a club that has some real hitters behind him. It’s possible that he’ll take those additional strikes and drive them into the alleys for extra base hits, but that’s projecting him to do something he hasn’t done before.

Gonzalez is a very good player, but if a team trades for him and hopes for another 119 walk season, I think they may be in for a bit of a surprise. Gonzalez’s improvement looks like a mixture of improved plate discipline and inferior teammates, and only one of those things will go with him if he’s traded.

Does your team need a catcher for 2010? Well, you might be in some trouble. With Victor Martinez’s option picked up today (and Jason Varitek exercising his player option), here’s a list of free agent catchers who received more than 200 PAs last year, courtesy of Cot’s Contracts

Rod Barajas TOR (B)
Josh Bard WAS
Henry Blanco SD
Ramon Hernandez * CIN (B)
Jason Kendall MIL (B)
Bengie Molina SF (A)
Miguel Olivo KC (B)
Ivan Rodriguez TEX (B)
Yorvit Torrealba COL (B)
Gregg Zaun TB

*Cincinnati holds an $8.5MM club option

The average 2009 WAR of these players was 1.2. You’re not going to find any superstars out of this bunch, but there are a few interesting contributors in an extended backup or starting role this year. Although Miguel Olivo leads this bunch in 2009 WAR at 2.2, he was playing over his head (21.2% HR/FB rate), and is also a terrible defensive catcher from most reports. Gregg Zaun was second with 1.8 WAR, put up in 296 PAs between Baltimore and Tampa Bay.

Zaun’s .334 wOBA ranked 10th in the league among catchers with at least 200 PAs. Zaun did have some decent BABIP luck, with a .291 vs. a career mark (over 15 seasons) of .276. Still, Zaun’s combination of good plate discipline (10.6% walk rate/12.1% career) and roughly average power (.156 ISO/.137 career) at the catcher position makes him a very interesting piece. Pro-rated to 600 plate appearances, Zaun’s 2009 was worth 3.6 wins.

At his career wOBA mark of .316, Zaun is worth closer to 2.8 wins, which is still excellent, especially when compared to the rest of the catchers on the market. Interestingly, the Rays decided to buy him out for 500,000 dollars, rather than accept his $2MM option for 2010. Word is that Zaun is interested in returning to Tampa given that he is from the area and will have the opportunity to start, and may take a deal for less than the 2 million dollars that his option would have paid him.

Zaun may be one of the rare cases where it’s not all about the money, and if he wants to stay in Tampa Bay, more power to him. If he’s actually trying to get top dollar out of the market, however, Zaun needs to look elsewhere. The Rays have little leverage – their catchers accrued a staggering -28 wRAA last year, thanks to Dioner Navarro’s mighty struggles. The Rays definitely have need. The Brewers, Giants, Mets, and Blue Jays also have obvious needs at catcher, thanks to free agency and incompetency, and catcher is always a position where teams are looking to improve.

Zaun’s skills appear to be worth about 8 million dollars in a platooning role (~400 PAs), and more in a starting role. If the Rays actually sign Zaun to a contract of less than 2 million, it could be the steal of the offseason. If they lose him, it may be one of the biggest mistakes.

As explained in the overview post, here, this is part of a series looking at the best and worst defensive performers over the past three combined seasons. Rankings are done by adding a player’s UZR with his aggregate positional adjustment so as to level the playing field with regards to difficulty. Essentially, it’s removing the grading curve.

Previously covered:
The Best
5th, Ryan Zimmerman 43.7 runs above average.
4th, Omar Vizquel 45.8 runs above average.
3rd, J.J. Hardy 48.7 runs above average.
2nd, Franklin Gutierrez 51.4 runs above average.
1st, Chase Utley 54.8 runs above average.

Tonight, the start of the bottom five, with the fifth worst, OF Jason Bay.

To start with, here’s how bad the bad group has been. You can see above the runs that the good group amassed over average, topped with Chase Utley with 54.8 runs. There were nine players that had a higher absolute run value on the negative side.

Jason Bay leads off this series with his 64.9 runs below average. His defense is so bad in such a non-premium defensive position that he was merely a replacement level player in 2007 when his bat disappeared.

Luckily for Pittsburgh, Bay’s bat did return in 2008 and the Pirates dealt him off to Boston in a deal that involved Manny Ramirez, himself one of the worst fielders in the game. Bay has maintained his resumption of good hitting and Fenway Park has helped, providing him with a sympathetic park for right-handed sluggers. That Bay has been able to be a three-win player the last two seasons despite fielding so poorly in left field as to start him off in a -25 run hole speaks to his bat and durability.

Jason Bay enters free agency this winter and one has to wonder how long he goes before he ends up in a DH role. With his high level of offensive output and at only 31 years of age, Bay is going to fetch a high price and contract. Be wary, National League teams.

The official Elias free agent compensation rankings were released earlier today. For those unaware, these rankings essentially determine the draft compensation (if any) a player’s previous team will recover based on a few criteria. For one, the former team must offer the player arbitration or have the player sign before the arbitration offering deadline. From there, Type-A players who sign with a team outside of the top half of round one will see their new team surrender their first round pick and their old team receive said pick as well as a compensatory pick in the supplemental round. If a player signed with a team in the top half, then the old team will receive a compensatory pick and the team’s second rounder. If one team signs enough Type-As, it’s conceivable another team could receive only a third round pick for their Type-A free agent, like Toronto with A.J. Burnett last year.

Arizona, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Florida, Kansas City, Milwaukee, New York (N), Oakland, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Tampa Bay, Seattle, Texas, and Washington take no part in the fun this year, although most of those teams have at least one Type-B free agent on their hands.

Some names, like Matt Holliday, Jason Bay, and John Lackey are no doubters. There are a few players, notably Victor Martinez, Cliff Lee, Manny Ramirez, Rafael Betancourt, and Jermaine Dye who have an option holding them up from free agency. Then, there are players like LaTroy Hawkins, Kevin Gregg, Bengie Molina and John Grabow who raise more questions about the process and rankings than anything else.

Go to the Type-Bs and you run into some fun comparisons. For instance, did you know, that if Carl Crawford’s option weren’t exercised earlier, he would have the same compensation necessary to sign Scott Eyre, Jason Kendall, and Fernando Tatis? Or that Chan Ho Park is equal to Melvin Mora and Miguel Olivo. Or – this one is the best – Adrian Beltre is equal to Xavier Nady and Jason Varitek.

Most teams are going to take advantage of the system underrating players like they always do. This free agent market doesn’t figure to be as strong as last year’s, and remember how long it took for Type-A players like Juan Cruz to finally land deals? Unless their original teams step into the fold, it’s going to be a long winter for players like Darren Oliver, John Grabow, and LaTroy Hawkins; or maybe just a long winter for the fans of a few teams who give up a first or second rounder for their rights.

We’re happy to announce the addition of the newest member of our team. Matt brings his particular style to the site beginning today.

I’m the new guy. Six or seven of you may have previously read my work elsewhere under a different name. I won’t tell you what it was, but it was something like… “devil_f.” No, that’s too obvious; let’s go with “d_fingers.”

We often hear that certain hitters “just do the little things” to help their team win. Can these things be quantified? Some would say no, but in last offseason’s epic Confused Says What? thread with Tom Tango, a user suggested that if one subtracted traditional linear weights (wRAA) from game-state linear weights (WPA/LI), one would get a measure of the “Little Things” the player contributed to his team(s) during the year. And so I checked it out.

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Prospect ranking season is here. Top 10 lists will be arriving shortly and in preparation for that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The series is back for a second year.

The Graduate: Jordan Zimmermann, RHP
A possible Rookie of the Year campaign was ruined for Zimmermann after he underwent Tommy John surgery on his throwing elbow. The former second round draft pick was showing good rates: 2.86 BB/9 and 9.07 K/9 when he went down with the injury. He was a little too hittable, though, and allowed 95 hits in 91.1 innings of work. Zimmermann’s line-drive rate was also high at 24.3%. He posted a 1.8 WAR in limited playing time, and the Nationals organization is no doubt hoping to see him in the second half of 2010.

The Riser: Eury Perez, OF
An unknown prior to ’09, Perez had a solid North American debut in rookie ball. The speedy outfielder nabbed 16 bases but was caught eight times, so he has some work to do on the base paths, which is not uncommon for young players. Perez swung a good bat too, with a line of .381/.443/.503, but he was aided but an unrealistic .418 BABIP. He showed OK patience for a 19-year-old and posted a walk-rate of 7.7% and struck out just 11.0% of the time. Perez is definitely someone to keep an eye on; just don’t expect another .446 wOBA.

The Tumbler: Esmailyn Gonzalez, SS
Gonzalez, aka Carlos Alvarez, was at the center of controversy for his fake identity, and just about everyone has forgotten about the .343/.431/.475 line that he posted in ’08 as a supposed 18-year -ld shortstop. Worse yet for the organization, it paid a pretty penny to sign the (formerly) highly regarded international free agent. Alvarez, actually 23 (soon 24), was stuck in the Dominican Republic this past season and hit .280/.423/.427 in 232 at-bats.

The ’10 Sleeper: Adrian Nieto, C
Nieto did not have a great offensive season in his first full year in pro ball, but he showed flashes of potential. Overall in rookie ball, the switch-hitting catcher batted .228/.337/.287 in 136 at-bats and he showed good patience with a walk rate of 12.8%. He will need to get stronger after posting an ISO of just .059. He also needs to hit better against right-handed pitching after posting a line of .194/.267/.262 in ’09. Defensively, Nieto threw out 44% of would-be base stealers.

Bonus: Derek Norris, C
Highlighted as a potential sleeper prospect during the ’08 series, Norris broke out in a huge way in ’09 and is a member of the club’s Top 10 list in ’09. Along with throwing out 36% of runners attempting to steal (and 47% in ’08), Norris showed excellent offensive skills in low-A ball. He does need to improve his receiving and other defensive skills after making 18 errors and allowing 28 passed balls.