Jim Thome hits free agency this offseason, after playing out the last season of his 2003-2008 (with 2009 vesting in 2008) contract. Injuries in Philadelphia and his eventual inability to play the field are among the reasons the contract probably didn’t work out in the end for the teams involved, but Thome has been a very good hitter when he’s been healthy.

How can Thome be expected to hit in 2010? Over the last four seasons, Thome’s wOBAs have been .420, .410, .370, and .367. Regressing to the mean and accounting for age, I estimate his 2010 wOBA at about .365, or about 21 runs above average.

Other (better) projection systems are already coming out with their estimate. I haven’t seen a ZiPs‘ projection for Thome (sorry if I missed it, Dan), but the CHONE projection is much less optimistic about Thome’s 2010 abilities than mine, having him at +9 runs per 150 games, or about +10 per 700 PAs.

There are two other important considerations with Thome: (1) his age and health and (2) his inability to play first base on even a part-time basis. Thome will by 39 at the beginning of the 2010 season. Despite all of this, from 2006-2008 he played in 143, 130, and 149 games. Even in 2009, he played in 107 games for Chicago before getting traded to the Dodgers, where he could not DH. While we should still be cautious in playing time projections for a 39-year-old who can’t play 1B because of back problems, given that, when he’s DHed, he’s been able to play pretty much every day, an 80% playing time projection doesn’t seem unreasonable.

Being a full-time DH obviously hurts Thome’s value. Only teams in the AL (and possibly the Nationals) will be interested. While normally we assume that a full-time DH’s value above replacement is simply his runs created above average, given that Thome has shown he can DH the last few years, we can use the -17.5/700 positional adjustment rather than -22.5.

Splitting the difference between projections (this does not mean I think my projection is in the same league), we get the following: +15 hitting -17.5 position + 22.5 replacement level times 80% playing time = 1.6 WAR player. We’d currently expect a team to give a 1.6 WAR player about six or seven million dollars on a one-year deal.

Is Thome really worth that? After all, a guy like Eric Hinske, whom CHONE projects to be a +6 hitter, and can also play a decent 1B, perhaps an acceptable LF/RF, and even an emergency 3B, would seem to be worth just as much. As a full-time 1B, with average defense, you’d expect him to be worth about almost as much as Thome over a full season, and at a much lower cost.

For most teams, Hinske would be a better investment. However, if there is an AL team that just needs the DH hole filled and is contending, given that Thome has proven he can DH, he would be the better choice. Whether he’s worth the extra money and if suitors recognize that is another question altogether. The recent awards voting has hinted at a change among the writers; will the market for older DH-types like Thome and Hideki Matsui demonstrate one among the front offices? Last season seemed to indicate so; it will be interesting to see if the trend continues.

General Manager: David Dombrowski
Farm Director: Glenn Ezell
Scouting Director: David Chadd

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-draft signees ($200,000+)

2009 1st Round: Jacob Turner, RHP, Missouri HS
2. Andrew Oliver, LHP, Oklahoma State
3. Wade Gaynor, 3B, Western Kentucky
6x- Daniel Fields, SS, Michigan HS
30x- James Robbins, 1B, Washington HS

Following up the success that the organization had with Rick Porcello, the club nabbed another advanced high school arm in Turner. The right-hander did not make a pro appearance after signing, but he’ll likely begin his career in low-A ball at the start of 2010. He has No. 1 starter potential, but he’s probably not going to get to the Majors as quickly as Porcello did.

The club nabbed a couple of college players – Oliver and Austin Wood (5th round) – who should move quickly, especially if they’re kept in the bullpen. Oliver did not appear in a game during the regular season, but he did get into 10 games in the Arizona Fall League. In 15 innings, he allowed 12 hits and struggled with his control with nine walks. On the plus side, he struck out 15 batters. He uses a low-to-mid-90s fastball, cutter and change-up. Wood, another lefty, made just four appearances during the regular season, including three in high-A. In six total innings, he did not walk a batter or give up a homer. Wood’s repertoire includes an 88-91 mph fastball and a solid change-up.

Third-round pick Wade Gaynor had a rough debut in short-season ball, and he hit just .192/.281/.282 with eight steals in 234 at-bats. He was hurt by a .235 BABIP. Over-draft signee Fields did not appear in a regular-season game, but the organization has a lot of hope for the shortstop. He walked away from a scholarship with the University of Michigan for a $1.6 million bonus, but he’s still raw in many facets of the game. Keep an eye on ninth round pick John Murrian. The catcher had a solid debut in short-season ball by hitting .296/.356/.468 in 186 at-bats. Entering the draft, he was considered a solid hitter who had below-average power. He took to wood bats quite well, though, and posted a promising ISO of .172. Murrian also has a good defensive reputation.

2008 1st Round: Ryan Perry, RHP, Arizona
2. Cody Satterwhite, RHP, Mississippi
3. Scott Green, RHP, Kentucky

The 2008 draft was all about adding pitching depth to the system – and choosing players that could move quickly into the barren upper levels of the organizations. First-rounder Perry did just that and spent a good portion of the season in Detroit where he showed some rough spots with a 5.55 BB/9 rate and a 4.52 FIP. He needs to add polish to his control, as well as the command of his slider. Satterwhite spent the ’09 season in double-A where he also struggled with his control and posted a walk rate of 4.93 BB/9. He has good overall stuff and should help out the MLB team soon. Green had a nice year in high-A ball, although he missed some time. In 36.0 innings, he posted a strikeout rate of 8.75 K/9 and showed better control than some of the other pitchers in the draft with a 3.50 BB/9.

Fourth rounder Brett Jacobson, another college reliever, was traded to Baltimore in the Aubrey Huff deal in ’09. The best reliever of the bunch may turn out to be Robbie Weinhardt (10th round). He reached double-A in ’09 and has shown inconsistent control at times, but he strikes out a lot of batters (9.19 K/9 in 31.1 double-A innings) while maintaining a ground-ball rate around 50%.

Fifth-rounder Alex Avila has exceeded all expectations and reached in the Majors in ’09 after hitting well in double-A. He also showed intriguing patience and power potential this past season; Avila hit five homers in 61 MLB at-bats (.311 ISO). He could be the catcher of the future for the organization. Infielder Brandon Douglas (11th round) has also been better than advertised after dealing with injuries in college. Already 24, he projects as a big-league utility player at the very least.

2007 1st Round: Rick Porcello, RHP, New Jersey HS
1S. Brandon Hamilton, RHP, Alabama HS
2. Danny Worth, SS, Pepperdine
3. Luke Putkonen, RHP, North Carolina
5x- Casey Crosby, LHP, Illinois HS
6x- Cale Iorg, SS, Alabama

The ’07 draft had some ups and some downs. Porcello rocketed to the Majors and had a Rookie-of-the-Year-worthy season. Crosby has been hampered by injuries but he got back on track in ’09 with a 2.80 FIP in 24 low-A starts. Putkonen also had a solid ’09 season. Both Worth and Iorg have been disappointments, and both were rushed to the detriment of their careers. Hamilton’s control has been all over the map in his three-year career and he posted a walk rate of 5.55 in low-A ball in ’09. His ERA was ugly at 7.09, but his FIP was a little less so at 5.15. The organization probably wishes that it had signed 41st rounder D.J. LeMahieu, an infielder who was the Cubs’ second-rounder in ’09 and hit very well in his debut.

2006 1st Round: Andrew Miller, LHP, North Carolina
2. Ron Bourquin, 3B, Ohio State
3. Brennan Boesch, OF, California

First-rounder Miller was used in a trade with Florida to acquire Miguel Cabrera (and Dontrelle Willis). Both Bourquin and Boesch have been disappointments, although the latter prospect showed potential in ’09 with solid power numbers (.235 ISO) in double-A. The club did score with its fourth-round (Ryan Strieby) and fifth-round (Scott Sizemore) selections. Both players could play big roles with the club in 2010, with Sizemore earmarked as the starting second baseman. Closer prospect Casey Weathers would have been a great sign out of the 25th round. He went in the first round to Colorado the following season.

Up Next: The Detroit Tigers Top 10 Prospects

Free agency started 10 hours ago, and as of today, teams are free to spend money in the market to upgrade their rosters. A lot of teams will do just that, selecting from the available pool of free agents to fill holes on their roster or replace players that don’t live up to their standards. This is the traditional way of improving the organization’s odds of winning – get better players than you already have. It’s generally a really good strategy if you can pull it off.

However, I think there’s an alternate path that may see some gains in popularity as teams attempt to keep their costs down during a tough economy. Rather than focusing purely on maximizing the potential positives, there is value to be had in minimizing the potential negatives. Let me use pictures to explain this better.

Here’s a sample win curve of the probable outcomes for a +1.8 win (roughly league average) player – the probabilities are made up to demonstrate the theory, though I’d bet they’re in the neighborhood of reality.

You’ll notice that this is not a normal distribution. The chance of injury make a disappointing outcome more likely than a breakout, so its not a traditional bell curve, but there are possible outcomes on both sides of the player’s actual talent level. The traditional replace-with-a-better-player method would lead a team to look for a guy who is closer to a +3 or +4 win player, pushing the entire curve to the right. However, +3 to +4 win players are expensive, and if you already have a +1.8 win guy on the roster, the marginal cost is probably going to outweigh the marginal benefit. In turn, you will not be willing to pay full price for those extra wins, and that good player will go sign with a team that has a giant hole at the position, thus receiving the full benefit of their talent level.

But there are a decent amount of teams that don’t have glaring holes on their roster, yet still want to improve their chances of winning. Rather than paying full price to upgrade from a +1.8 to a +3.5 win player, only netting +1.7 marginal wins in the process, perhaps there’s a more efficient way of buying wins, focusing on minimizing risk rather than maximizing return. Or, in graph form, doing this.

Rather than replacing the average player with a superior option, this new graph represents the result of simply having more options. This is a strategy to pursue depth rather than premium talent. It is the baseball version of diversification. Rather than pursuing a single, high-end player with a big contract that still leaves them vulnerable to total loss in case of an injury or inexplicable drop in performance, pairing different types of players can offer similar upside and risk at a reduced cost.

At 5 pm, we’ll look at some teams that may be in the position to do just that this winter

Aaron Heilman joined his fourth organization in the last 12 months tonight. Last year Heilman was part of a three-way deal that landed him in Seattle. Prior to the start of the regular season, he was shipped to the Cubs, and today he avoided being non-tendered and was instead sent to Arizona.

Heilman pitched in 70+ innings for the fifth consecutive season. He did a nice job putting an uncharacteristic 2008 season behind him. His FIPs over the past three years have been 3.86, 4.91, and 4.37, with the final two seasons coming with HR/FB higher than Heilman’s career average. He’s a slight groundball pitcher who uses a low-90s fastball, slider, and change effectively. Heilman has experience as a set-up man and the Diamondbacks seem likely to use him in the bullpen.

The return for the Cubs are a pair of minor leaguers.

Scott Maine is a stout lefty with impressive strikeout rates out of the bullpen. He’s 24-years-old and was drafted out of the university of Miami in 2007. Maine throws from a low arm slot and has a fastball that breaks into the low-90s as well as a slurve. The mandatory Tommy John surgery is out of the way and it’ll be interesting to see if deception is the key for Maine or if his stuff can hold up in the higher minors.

Ryne White is a short left-handed first baseman drafted in 2008 from Purdue. He’s shown the propensity to draw a walk but flashes few other skills despite a supposedly quick bat. He played some outfield in college and, given his height, there’s a chance he could return there sometime in the future.

Considering Heilman was on his way out for nothing, it’s hard to say the Cubs lose out on this deal. Maine might be a useful relief arm sooner than later, and who knows what the future holds for White. Obviously this isn’t an ideal situation, but at least they didn’t pay a marginal reliever seven million dollars today. As for Arizona, I’m not sure giving up anything of value for a middle reliever is a good play, especially given Arizona’s placement on the win curve.

Two days ago, the BBWAA ignored win totals and gave Zack Greinke the American League Cy Young award. Today, they did it again, giving Tim Lincecum the NL version despite having only 15 victories, the fewest of any Cy Young winner in the history of the award. Despite my long-winded explanation for why I don’t really care about the BBWAA awards, I feel like it would be silly to not give honor where it is due.

Congratulations to the members of the BBWAA, who have been willing to adapt as the game changes. They deserve recognition for being willing to accept the shift towards better analytical methods. And getting away from wins as a measure of the value of a pitcher is a big first step.

Five years ago, Lincecum wouldn’t have stood a chance in the voting. He might not have even stood a chance a year ago. But there are clearly members of the Writers Association who are not clinging to the analysis that they grew up with. It isn’t just that they gave Keith Law a vote this year. It’s writers like Larry Stone who have been in the newspaper business for 20 years and are helping to educate their fellow scribes.

Today, the BBWAA took a pretty big step back towards credibility. It obviously isn’t a wholesale change, and there are always going to be people resistant to any sort of change, but the shift is taking place. And it’s a welcome occurrence.

If they keep voting like this, I’ll have to start caring again.

Note: While the following isn’t technically a book, it’s very close to book-length. This was unintentional. On the plus side, Ken Arneson knows how to rock the mic right.

Readers will remember Ken Arneson both/either from the etherview that appeared in these electronic pages a couple months ago and/or the world-beating interweb sites — Humbug Journal and Catfish Stew — of which he was the world-beating author.

I wanted to address at least two issues with Herr Arneson (if not more). For one, I suspected that the invocation of “procedural memory” in my most recent post here was (a) ill-advised and (b) wildly inaccurate. I trusted that Arneson would right this egregious wrong. For two, I wanted Arneson to flesh out the comment he’d made on another post in which I suggest that Jered Weaver serves as an object lesson for the idea of flow, on account of how successful he is with such little velocity. He appears to be “trying easier,” I claim.

Ken Arneson responded in the comments section:

The “try easier” issue is just another example of the differences in the declarative/procedural memory types.

Muscle memory is procedural memory. That means it’s an automatic, subconscious process. If you try to induce conscious control over those types of memories, you’re rerouting the process through the wrong memory system, and you’ll likely mess the process up.

The conscious part of the process has to come in advance, in tricking the procedural memory system to automatically do what you want it to do when the time comes.

That’s why there’s no such thing as clutch, but there is such a thing as choking. You can’t make an automatic process any better, but you can avoid “thinking too much”, ie sabotaging the automatic responses with improper routing.

Arneson consented to be interviewed Wednesday by means of EtherPad, a program that allows multiple users to create and edit a document. Hence, the “etherview.”

Ken: Hej.

Carson: Really? Are there any “hej is for horses” jokes in Sweden?

Ken: Haven’t heard one, but there’s a bunch of good Swenglish jokes here (NSFW).

Carson: You had me at “Swenglish.”

Read the rest of this entry »

General Manager: John Mozeliak
Farm Director: Mike Girsch
Scouting Director: Jeff Luhnow

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

Honestly, this is a pretty barren system, in terms of can’t-miss, impact talent… but it does have its fair share of intriguing names. The organization’s minor-league talented has been gutted by trades, as well as the graduation of 2009 top prospect Colby Rasmus. The organization did select three very interesting names at the top of the draft in ’09, which helps provide a lifeline to the system.

1. Lance Lynn, RHP, double-A
DOB: May 1987 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 supplemental 1st round – U of Mississippi
MLB ETA: mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Lynn doesn’t light up the radar gun, but he has a solid repertoire that he commands well, he does a relatively nice job of pounding the strike zone (this slipped a bit in double-A) and he’s a big, strong, durable guy. The right-hander doesn’t really project as a top-of-the-rotation starter, but he should be a solid No. 3 guy who could pitch a few years at the level of a No. 2. Lynn has had few problems with minor-league hitters in his career and he posted a 3.47 FIP in 126.1 double-A innings. He also does a great job of keeping the ball in the park; he allowed five homers in ’09 (0.30 HR/9). His ground-ball rate was just shy of 50%. Lynn has had some nicer strikeout numbers in the lower minors in small-sample sizes but the 6.98 K/9 in double-A is a little worrisome; he’s had success putting a lot of balls in play, but he’s also been helped by some lower BABIPs.

2. Jaime Garcia, LHP, triple-A
DOB: June 1986 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 22nd round – Texas HS
MLB ETA: mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, plus curveball, change-up

A number of top pitching prospects in the system have been derailed by injuries and Garcia has been no different. Bothered by elbow problems for the past few years, Garcia finally had elbow surgery and missed a good portion of the ’09 season. He returned in time to make nine appearances and he actually pitched quite well. In 21 triple-A innings, the left-hander struck out 22 batters in 21.0 innings of work. In the small-sample size, his control was improved over the previous few seasons, which was nice to see since a lot of pitchers struggle with their control after a long layoff. On the downside, Garcia allowed five homers at triple-A (2.14 HR/9). Along with his solid repertoire, the southpaw is also an extreme ground-ball pitcher and that continued in ’09 as he posted a 62.4 GB% in 51.0 combined innings. At the very latest, Garcia should be helping out the Cardinals by mid-2010.

3. Daryl Jones, OF, double-A
DOB: June 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2005 3rd round – Texas HS
MLB ETA: late-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

After teasing the organization with his potential in both 2006 and ’07, Jones broke out in ’08. His growth hit a bit of a wall in double-A in ’09 but he appeared in just 80 games due to injury. The outfielder hit .279/.360/.378 in 294 at-bats. His ISO fell by almost half to just .099 in ’09 his wOBA dropped from .410 to .343. After stealing 20+ bases in both ’07 and ’08, Jones managed just seven this past year in 11 attempts – and was on pace for fewer than 20 even without the missed time. Still just 22, Jones could head back to double-A in 2010 for the third time, or the organization could be aggressive with him and bump him up to triple-A. Because he hits left-handers well and should avoid the dreaded platoon, Jones has the potential to be an impact outfielder – especially if he can find his power stroke again.

4. Allen Craig, 3B/LF, triple-A
DOB: July 1984 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 8th round – U of California
MLB ETA: early-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

The hot corner has been a bit of an issue for St. Louis in recent years but the organization has a few prospects on the cusp of the Majors that are capable of playing third base. Craig is often overlooked but the 25-year-old infielder has quietly slugged 20+ homers in three straight seasons, while hitting above .300. In ’09 at triple-A, Craig hit .322/.374/.547 with an ISO of .225 in 472 at-bats. He was aided by a healthy .359 BABIP. If you want to nitpick on Craig’s stats, he could do a better job of getting on base if he took a few more free passes; he posted a walk rate of 7.3% in ’09. For a slugger, he does a nice job of limiting strikeouts and typically keeps his strikeout rate below 20.0%. After spending the majority of his minor-league career at the hot corner, Craig spent more time (71 games) in left field at triple-A. He also played 42 games at first base and just 13 at third base. He could be given consideration at third in the spring, but his value to the club may lie in his versatility.

5. Eduardo Sanchez, RHP, double-A
DOB: March 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted amateur free agent
MLB ETA: late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 91-96 mph fastball, curveball

Sanchez burst onto the prospect landscape in a big way in ’09. The formerly obscure relief prospect missed a lot of bats in both high-A and double-A by posting a strikeout rate just shy of 10.0%. He also showed improved control, although it did slip at times. The 20-year-old right-hander could see his fastball velocity jump even higher if he adds a little more bulk to his slender frame. Sanchez allowed just 32 hits in 50 double-A innings, but he posted a very low BABIP at .248, which is something he’s done consistently throughout his minor-league career. The right-hander dominates right-handed batters (.170 in ’09) but he also holds his own against left-handers (.202). For a hard-throwing reliever, Sanchez does a respectable job of keeping the ball on the ground with a ground-ball rate right around 50.0%.

6. Dan Descalso, IF, triple-A
DOB: October 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2007 3rd round – U of California-Davis
MLB ETA: mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Descalso, like Craig, could offer a lot of roster flexibility with his ability to play multiple positions. Mainly a second baseman, the left-handed hitter split ’09 between double-A and triple-A. At the lower level, he hit .323/.396/.531 (.356 BABIP) in 288 at-bats. At triple-A, he slipped to .253/.327/.320 (.283 BABIP) in 150 at-bats. Descalso’s numbers have been pretty inconsistent over his career; he’s shown flashes of hitting for average, as well as flashes of hitting for power. Because he’s done neither consistently, he could end up as a utility player. If the 23-year-old infielder can improve, though, he could be the long-term answer at second base, as he hits both left-handers and right-handers equally well.

7. Adam Reifer, RHP, high-A
DOB: June 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 11th round – U.C. Riverside
MLB ETA: mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 92-97 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Reifer is a step behind Sanchez in the race to provide late-inning support in St. Louis. The 23-year-old right-hander can hit the high-90s with his fastball and he had a solid year in high-A ball despite the misleading 4.47 ERA. Reifer posted a 3.53 FIP and had a strikeout rate of 9.31 K/9. He put a lot of men on base with a 4.47 BB/9 and with 51 hits allowed in 48.1, but he was victimized by a high BABIP at .362, as well as a poor LOB rate at 67.8%. If he can sharpen up his control, Reifer should settle into an eighth- or ninth-inning role in the Majors. To be a closer, he’ll need to improve his control when facing left-handed batters after posting a walk rate of 6.35 BB/9 against them in ’09.

8. David Freese, 3B, triple-A
DOB: April 1983 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 9th round – University of South Alabama (Drafted by San Diego)
MLB ETA: early 2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

Freese is getting a little long-in-the-tooth for a prospect, but he signed out of college as a senior so he had a late start to his career. Injuries prevented him from seeing more time in the Majors in ’09 (31 at-bats) but he hit above .300 at every level that he played at this past season (including rehab time). At triple-A, Freese hit .300/.369/.525 in 200 at-bats. He posted a .225 ISO and has 20-25 home run potential. The right-handed hitter has shown a consistent ability to hit .300 in the minors, but he’s also been aided by some solid BABIPs. He might not be so lucky in the Majors, but that remains to be seen. All signs point to Freese being given the first shot at the third-base job in St. Louis in 2010, although Mark DeRosa could end up back with the Cardinals.

9. Bryan Anderson, C, triple-A
DOB: December 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2005 4th round – California HS
MLB ETA: late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

It was an off-year for Anderson, who battled through injuries and did not hit as well as he had in the past. However, the catcher is still just 22 years old and he has a ton of potential. After showing consistent ability to hit .280-.300 in ’06 to ’08. Anderson slipped to .245/.293/.399 in 163 triple-A at-bats. His walk rate was also a disappointing 5.8% and he struck out at a rate of 25.8%, despite typically sitting below 20.0%. His defense has improved over the past few seasons but Anderson is not going to unseat Yadier Molina any time soon. He could end up backing up the incumbent, or Anderson could shift to another position, thanks to solid athleticism. He could also be used as trade bait once he’s shown he’s fully healthy.

10. Pete Kozma, 2B, double-A
DOB: April 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – Oklahoma HS
MLB ETA: mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Kozma barely hangs on as a Top 10 prospect, thanks to the exclusion of 2009 draft picks in this series. The former first round draft pick is currently living on reputation right now after hitting just .216/.288/.312 in 407 at-bats. After posting an .096 ISO and stealing just four bases, he needs to start doing something well if he’s going to avoid the dreaded utility label. Kozma was hurt by a low .262 BABIP in ’09. Just 21, 2010 will be a big year for Kozma who will likely repeat double-A in the hopes of finding his batting stroke; the 21.4% line-drive rate is encouraging.

A special thanks to both Erik Manning and Dan Budreika for their input on the Top 10 list.

Up Next: The Detroit Tigers

Congratulations to Zack Greinke not only for his Cy Young season, but his historically great season. For us here at FanGraphs, it is especially nice for a stat-loving guy to win.

Greinke throws four- and two-seam fastballs, a change, a curve and a slider. A couple days ago, Harry Pavlidis checked out his curve, and here I am going to look at his slider.

It is nothing short of amazing. On a total runs saved level, it was second only to Brett Anderson’s slider, which I profiled earlier. But Anderson throws his more often, so on a per slider basis, Greinke’s was even better.

Anderson’s slider was successful because it induced a ton of grounders (66%) and weak contact (slugging on contact of .435), but it got a below average number of whiffs (25% compared to 29% average for sliders in 2009). Greinke’s slider succeeded in the exact opposite manner. It gave up an above average slugging on contact (.502 compared to an average of .485), but gets tons and tons of whiffs (almost 45% of swings against his slider did not make contact). In fact no starter’s slider got more whiffs and only a handful of relievers’ sliders did.

+--------------------+-------+
|          Slider Whiff Rate | 
+--------------------+-------+
| Mike Wuertz        | 0.503 |
| Brad Lidge         | 0.467 |
| Luke Gregerson     | 0.455 |  
| Zack Greinke       | 0.447 |  
| Jorge de la Rosa   | 0.430 | 
+--------------------+-------+

Wuertz, of course, has an amazing slider, Lidge does, too, even in a down year, and Gregerson is surpinsingly unhittalbe. Then there is Greinke, the first starting pitcher on the list. He was the best pitcher of this year and one of the top performers of the past decade, and a huge part of it was his unhittable slider.

According to Paul Sullivan, the Cubs will announce later today that they have re-signed John Grabow to a two-year contract. Previous reports have put the value of the deal at $7.5 million.

Once again, we’re witness to the power of ERA as a negotiating tool. Over the last two seasons, Grabow’s thrown nearly 150 innings and posted an ERA of 3.09, giving the impression that he’s a high quality LH reliever. Yet again, ERA misleads.

Grabow’s FIP the last two years? 4.37, thanks to an atrociously high walk total. The entirety of his low ERA over the last two years is driven by an 82 percent rate of stranding runners, which is just not sustainable. He’s succeeded by putting men on base and then wiggling out of jams, but that’s not the same thing as pitching well.

It would be one thing if Grabow had developed this knack for stranding runners by elevating his strikeout rate, but he’s not any different now than he has been for his entire career.

Instead, he’s just posted artificially low BABIPs the last two years, and by not giving up hits, he was able to keep the guys he walked on the bases. That’s not a recipe for success.

Grabow is a generic left-handed middle reliever, the kind of guy you’re fine having for the league minimum but that you don’t really want to pay any real money to. He’s eminently replaceable, but the Cubs have decided to commit real money to him over multiple years because he has a low ERA.

The Cubs have money, and $3.75 million isn’t going to drastically alter their budget, but this is just a waste of cash. Betting on reliever ERA is a great way to get burned, and given Grabow’s actual talent levels, the Cubs are unlikely to be very happy with how this deal turns out for them.

Have you ever had one of those occasions where a trip down memory lane leads to acquiring a new piece of information? As you can guess, that is exactly what happened to me yesterday. While sifting through the bargain bin — also known as the minor league free agent list — the name Corey Patterson appeared. Memories of Patterson’s 2003 season. A season in which Patterson hit 13 home runs (he hit 14 in nearly 300 additional plate appearances the year prior), stole 16 bases (18 in 2002), and saw his ISO jump from the low-to-mid .100s all the way to .213 ended prematurely thanks to a knee injury.

Anyhow, curiosity got the best of me and I searched for his page on this very site. What I found was a bit surprising. In my mind Patterson has always been a solid defender. The scouting reports and UZR figures back it up; however, the degree to which he once scored is pretty impressive. Franklin Gutierrez produced one of the finest defensive seasons our UZR data has ever seen this year with a 29.1 score. In 2004, Patterson’s UZR was 24.6 while exclusively playing center.

Truth be told, Patterson has rated pretty well since that season too, but he’s never received as much playing time as he did then. His UZR/150s over the following three seasons were 11.3, 14.2, and 1.0. 2008 sat at 0.7 and 2009 has far, far too small of a sample size to say anything worthwhile. This is all from playing center. Patteron’s bat is lackluster. He doesn’t walk or hit for much power. He could be of some use as a pinch runner and defensive replacement for some National League team, though.

Frankly, I’m just disappointed I didn’t discover this earlier. When I attended a mid-June Nationals/Rays game I thought to myself that Patterson – then playing right – should’ve been in center instead of Elijah Dukes. Such is life.