It wasn’t too long ago that Edwin Jackson was considered a bit of a bust after failing to produce with the Los Angeles Dodgers and his early career with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Through his first five minor league seasons, Jackson made 46 starts between both teams in question, mostly in a 2007 season marked by a 5-15 record and a 5.76 ERA. Although Jackson’s peripheral stats indicate that he pitched much better than his basic stats show, his 4.90 FIP still didn’t suggest the major league ace that some had claimed Jackson could become.

When the Devil Rays changed their name, their fortunes changed. So did Edwin Jackson’s. Despite a nearly identical K/BB rate and HR/9 rate, Jackson turned his brutal 2007 into a respectable 14-11 and 4.42 ERA season, apparently making him worth enough to be traded for highly regarded Tigers farmhand Matt Joyce.

Jackson’s basic stats saw even more improvement in 2009, as he went 13-9 with a 3.62 ERA for Detroit and held a sub-3.00 ERA for much of the season. But this year, we did actually see improvement in his peripherals, as his K rate landed between his ’07 and ’08 marks while his BB rate continued its downward march.

That’s a very encouraging trend for a pitcher who will be 26 for most of the upcoming season. With a K rate below 7, however, it is unlikely that Jackson will emerge as an ace. Even with the encouraging control he showed in 2009, Jackson’s FIP still was a modest 4.28. That’s above average, and for a pitcher that’s under team control, that makes him a very solid asset. However, Jackson’s likely to be overvalued in this market due to his ability to throw a 94 mile an hour average fastball and his great ERA.

That isn’t to say that teams should avoid trading for him, or that the Tigers should unload him at the first half-decent offer. At his age, it’s still possible that we see the improvement that turns him into a sub-4.00 FIP pitcher. Still, most projection systems will likely peg Jackson for a FIP around 4.40. We can’t say that Jackson is an elite pitcher based on what we’ve seen from him, and he shouldn’t be treated as such by major league front offices.

Yesterday we looked at team baserunning; now let’s take a gander at the individual leaders for the 2009 season. Again, this is taken from Baseball Prospectus’ baserunning metrics (Hip-hip hooray for Dan Fox), sans the stolen bases, which are already figured in a player’s WAR total. These are the players who were the best at taking that extra base and not getting caught doing it.

Feel free to add these numbers in to a player’s total WAR to get a better picture of what these individuals were worth on the diamond.

	         Runs
Michael Bourn	   8
Chone Figgins	   7
Emilio Bonifacio   6
Cristian Guzman	   6
Dexter Fowler	   6
Chase Utley	   5
Ryan Zimmerman	   5
Rajai Davis	   5
Colby Rasmus	   5
Ichiro Suzuki	   5
Brandon Phillips   5

Baserunning matters, but it doesn’t matter a whole lot — at least not for the vast majority of players. Only 18 players contributed 4 or more runs, and only 13 players hurt their teams by 4 or more runs. Perhaps not surprisingly, we see a lot of speedsters on this list and…Ryan Zimmerman?

Bourn’s +8 lifts him up to the rarified air of 5 WAR, which is actually sort of mind-boggling when you think when you consider his awful 2008 season.

The Legend of Chone Figgins continues to grow. From 2007-2009, Figgins has been good for 19 runs of non-steals baserunning and 21 runs worth of fielding. It will be fascinating to see what sort of contract he gets on the free agent market.

Colby Rasmus may not have had the type of rookie campaign at the plate that was putting him in pre-season discussions for the NL ROY, but he was one of the best defensive fielders in the game (+9 UZR) and also added value with his legs. 2.8 WAR for a rookie is nothing to sneeze at; I humbly submit to you that Colby was a more deserving ROY than Chris Coghlan.

Oh, and is there anything Ichiro and Utley can’t do?

We’ll wrap this up tomorrow by throwing rocks at the biffs of the basepaths.

When the Cubs inked Aaron Miles to a two-year, $4.9M deal last off-season, I was one of the bigger critics. Miles was consistently a replacement level player with one solid season under his belt – which just so happened to be 2008 – and the Cubs had a potentially cheaper and better player on their roster already by the name of Ronny Cedeno. Nearly 12 months later, Miles contract doesn’t just look silly, it looks downright pathetic.

Granted, he missed a load of time due to injury and wound up with 170 plate appearances, but his line for 2009 finished at .185/.224/.242, good for a .212 wOBA and a park-adjusted wRAA of -17.2. Combine that with slightly below average defense and we have Miles’ WAR at -1.3 for the 2009 season, a dollar value of negative $5.7M. That’s right, Miles’ value in 2009 was actually so bad that it eclipsed his total contract value.

Now he had a poor BABIP, walked less than normal, struck out more than normal and 2009 doesn’t seem truly representative of his talent level, but it’s on the books. That two-year, $4.9M deal is more like a two-year $9.6M deal based on the negative value accumulated. What makes all of this even worse for the Cubs is the utility infielder market this off-season presents. John McDonald, Juan Uribe, Omar Vizquel, and even lesser beings like Eric Bruntlett are prime for the taking, and at prices that likely undercut the one paid to Miles.

On the bright side, Cedeno wasn’t much better than Miles. He just made fewer dollars and Jeff Baker played pretty well during his Cubs half of the season. A little under $3M won’t sink the Cubs or prevent them from adding another player or two, but you never want to willingly waste assets. I think Jim Hendry would take a mulligan on this one if given the opportunity.

For the third time in as many off-seasons, Eric Hinske will be able to select his next team on the free agent market. The 2002 Rookie of the Year is far removed from any shred of stardom and continues to etch out the career arc of a role player.

Hinske’s BABIP fluctuated heavily between 2006 and 2007 which led to a pair of odd seasons. In 2006 his BABIP reached a career high .335, and he enjoyed a .357 wOBA in the process while joining the Boston Red Sox. The next summer his BABIP dipped to .254 and his wOBA dropped like a rock to .316. His 2008 and 2009 seasons look somewhat similar:

2008: 432 PA, 20 HR, 11% BB, 23.1% K, .218 ISO
2009: 224 PA, 8 HR, 12.4% BB, 27.4% K, .189 ISO

A little less power and contact, but the walks are a welcome addition to most lineups. He’s an uncommon left-handed bat with an appetite for an all-righty diet. In what might be the biggest surprise, UZR rates Hinske as an average to slightly above defender in the field despite his bulky and, at times, lethargic frame and embarrassingly short-ranged dives. To his credit, Hinske usually catches what he gets to, and while his arm isn’t winning any gunfights with Vladimir Guerrero or Ichiro, the total package seems to get the job done.

Last off-season Hinske was essentially frozen out of a job until the Pirates called. It’s easy to see the same thing happening this off-season, although Hinske figures to stick in the American League. Not because of defensive limitations or league favoritism, but because each of his last three teams have won the pennant and two of those teams won the World Series. He’s the ultimate winner and general managers should plan accordingly.

When we talk abut a player’s value above replacement level, such as referring to stats like WAR, one of the questions that commonly arises is who these mythical replacement level players are. The best example of freely available talent – guys who can be had for nothing and still produce at an acceptable level in some role on a major league team – are minor league free agents. These players receive non-guaranteed contracts, are not placed on the 40 man roster, and teams have no requirement to keep them beyond spring training.

Their acquisition cost, for all intents and purposes, is zero. They represent the group of players that you really can get for nothing. The list of players eligible for minor league free agency has been made available, so with that, let’s take a look at some of the more interesting guys available for free this winter.

Ruben Gotay, 2B/3B

A second baseman for most of his career, Gotay spent more time playing third base in Reno this year, and that position may be a better fit for his particular skill set. He’ll never win a Gold Glove, but his bat is interesting enough to get him back to the big leagues.

While playing for the Diamondbacks affiliate in the PCL, Gotay racked up a .272/.429/.450 line that shows off a strong ability to control the strike zone. He drew 102 walks and struck out just 69 times, and unlike some minor league walk aficionados, he actually flashed some power – 42 of his 101 hits went for extra bases.

As a switch-hitter with plate discipline and power, Gotay has a good enough bat to play in the majors. His defense is the question mark, but teams with an opening at 3B or a willingness to sacrifice some range at 2B should be willing to give him a shot. Heading into his age 27 season, his best days may still be ahead of him.

Ben Davis, RHP

You may remember Davis as a busted catching prospect. These days, he’s working on a late career comeback as a knuckleball-throwing pitcher. While he’s new to the craft, his first impression on the mound was a strong one. He pitched well enough in independent ball in 2008 to catch on with the Reds last year, and he pitched well in nine games for Sarasota out of the bullpen. He even racked up 14 strikeouts in 11 2/3 innings, which is not something you usually see from knucklers.

Knuckleball pitchers are lottery tickets – for every Tim Wakefield, there are a bunch of Charlie Zinks. But there’s always a chance that Davis’ knuckler is better than the guys who wash out in the minors throwing the pitch, and if it is, he could be a pretty decent innings eater for a major league club. Plus, he could always serve as an emergency catcher.

Bobby Brownlie, RHP

At one point back in 2002, Brownlie was considered the best college prospect in the country. He was getting buzz for the top overall selection in the draft, but questions about his health pushed him down to the 21st pick, where the Cubs snatched him up. His career has been a frustrating series of injuries since then. However, through persistence, he’s managed to work himself up to the doorstep of the majors.

He split time between the rotation and the bullpen with the Braves Triple-A affiliate this year and pitched fairly well. His stuff is no longer what it used to be, but he can throw strikes and miss bats occasionally. His command of the strike zone makes him an interesting option as a middle reliever with some long term upside if he can stay on the field for an entire season.

Jerry Owens, CF

Owens has been the focus of scorn and derision from White Sox fans who had to endure Ozzie Guillen’s attempts to make him an everyday player, which he simply isn’t cut out for. However, as a fourth outfielder, Owens is actually a useful player. His defense is a real positive at all three spots and he’s a very good base stealer. He doesn’t have any power, but he’s an excellent contact hitter who is willing to draw a walk from time to time, so he won’t kill you at the plate.

For a team with a lumbering corner outfielder who could use a pinch runner/defensive caddy, Owens is a good use of a roster spot.

These aren’t the only four interesting players on the list – they’re just the four I wanted to talk about today. Teams looking for value will be perusing this list very carefully, looking for guys who offer a bit of potential and come at no real cost.

As the Official-Baseball-Awards-Are-Awarded-Amid-The-Bitter-Protests-and-Feigned-Indifference-from-the-Internet season winds down, it’s also time for websites and individual bloggers to hand out their own made up awards. I have already crowned the King of the Little Things for 2009, so it’s time to move on to the Carter-Batista Award for 2009. What’s that? If an award is named after Joe Carter and Tony Batista, you might surmise that it has to do with players whose offensive value is exaggerated by their RBI totals.

Readers of this blog don’t need a lecture on why RBI are a bad measure of offensive performance, value, and skill. Like much of my work, this is an excuse to play with a “toy” or “junk stat” to get a point across. Earlier this year, I did a three-part series (1, 2, 3) where I go into much greater detail on the methodology, etc. Here, I’ll just give you the bare-bones.

The idea, inspired by Jonah Keri, is that by dividing a players RBI total by a better counting stat, we can get an idea of how much a players RBI total “overrates” his offense. My earlier version had a more complex construction, but interactions with Tango and terpsfan convinced me that the best way to go about it was to simply use unadjusted “absolute” runs created, like wRC (wOBA Runs Created). The idea stays the same: the higher a player’s RBI/wRC, the more RBI totals “overrate” his contribution, and the more he enters Carter-Batista territory.

[In case you’re wondering I didn’t park-adjust: I did initially, but realized that the RBI are a just as much a product of the environment as wRC, so dividing an unadjusted RBI by an adjusted wRC would be problematic. As usual, simpler turned our to be better.]

Who is this season’s winner? The pool is qualified hitters with at least 90 RBI. Here are the top five candidates:

5. Jorge Cantu, 1.18 RBI/wRC. .343 wOBA (.289/.345/.443), 100 RBI
4. Brandon Phillips, 1.20 RBI/wRC. .337 wOBA (.276/.329/.447), 98 RBI
3. David Ortiz, 1.22 RBI/wRC. .340 wOBA (.238/.332/.462), 99 RBI
2. Jose Lopez, 1.26 RBI/wRC. .325 wOBA (.272/.303/.463), 96 RBI

This stat should not be taken to mean that these guys are bad players or even bad hitters. It just says something about their RBI totals in relation to their true offensive contribution. Brandon Phillips isn’t a great hitter, but he’s a good player because of his 2B defense. Jose Lopez managed to contribute at an above average level this season because of decent defense and durability. We shouldn’t look down on him just because he hit behind Ichiro and his .386 OBP. Sure, Big Papi had a down year with the bat, but his other contributions are incalculable. Literally.

And now, your 2009 Carter-Batista award winner:

1. Ryan Ludwick, 1.26 RBI/wRC. .336 wOBA (.265/.329/.447), 97 RBI

Wow! Ludwick already won the prestigious Average-est Player of 2009 Award. This is entering Michael-Jackson-at-the-1984-Grammys territory. I’m not sure how he did it. Are there any high-OBP guys hitting ahead of Ludwick?

It’s illlustrative to look at the “trailers,” as well. In the last two spots:

47. Joe Mauer, .753 RBI/wRC. .438 wOBA (.365/.444/.587), 96 RBI
48. Chase Utley (naturally), .751 RBI/wRC. .402 wOBA (.282/.397/.508), 93 RBI

Finally, the 2007-2009 leaders and trailers (minimum 250 RBI)

1. Bengie Molina, 1.45 RBI/wRC. .317 wOBA (.278/.302/.440), 256 RBI
2. Ryan Howard, 1.24 RBI/wRC. .385 wOBA (.266/.363/.565), 423 RBI
3. Jeff Francoeur, 1.19 RBI/wRC. 313. wOBA (.271/.314/.409), 252 RBI
…
43. Albert Pujols, .827 RBI/wRC. .440 wOBA (.337/.444/.626), 354 RBI
44. Chase Utley, .821 RBI/wRC. .404 wOBA (.301/.395/.536), 300 RBI
45. Hanley Ramirez, .664 RBI/wRC. .409 wOBA (.325/.398/.549), 254 RBI

Much more could be written, but you all can take it from here draw your own conclusions. Check out the extended list of rankings on this Google spreadsheet.

I’ll be back Tuesday or Wednesday with a follow-up on situational hitting.

General Manager: Dayton Moore
Farm Director: Mike Arbuckle
Scouting Director: J.J. Picollo

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-draft signees ($200,000+)

2009 1st Round: Aaron Crow, RHP, Independent ball
2. No pick
3. Wil Myers, C, North Carolina HS
4x- Chris Dwyer, LHP, Clemson
14x- Crawford Simmons, LHP, Georgia HS

The Royals organization did not make as big of a splash as it did in ’08, but the club still grabbed some interesting players. Crow, 23, has yet to make his regular-season debut, but the right-hander has been throwing in the Arizona Fall League. He’s shown some rust with 16 hits allowed in 11.1 innings, but he’s walked just two batters. On the plus side, he’s producing a nice ground-ball ratio. Myers got off to a quick start in his career in rookie ball. The right-handed hitting catcher has shown plus power and a good eye at the plate.

Dwyer made just four starts in rookie ball at the end of the season and struggled with his control. He did, however, strike out 15 batters in 8.2 innings of work. Simmons has yet to throw a pitch for the organization. Louis Coleman was signed in the fifth round of the ’09 draft as a senior out of Louisiana State University. The 23-year-old hurler could move quickly as a reliever with a low-90s fastball and slider. He’s already reached high-A ball.

2008 1st Round: Eric Hosmer, 1B, Florida HS
1S. Mike Montgomery, LHP, California HS
2. Johnny Giavotella, 2B, New Orleans
3. Tyler Sample, RHP, Colorado HS
4x- Tim Melville, RHP, Missouri HS

The Royals spent a lot of money on the 2008 draft and the organization has received a solid return on its investment. Four of the above five players are on the club’s Top 10 prospects list. Fifth-round pick John Lamb is also on the list. Both Montgomery and Melville have a chance to be top-of-the-rotation starters, although they have a long way to go. Hosmer had a less-than-impressive ’09 season – his first full year – but he struggled with vision problems, which have been corrected via surgery. All in all, this was a stellar draft.

2007 1st Round: Mike Moustakas, 3B, California HS
2. Sam Runion, RHP, North Carolina HS
3. Danny Duffy, LHP, California HS
x-Keaton Hayenga, RHP, Washington HS

Moustakas has been a little slower to develop than many had hoped, and Runion’s career has been sidelined by injuries. Duffy looks to be a third-round steal. Outfielder David Lough (11th) and right-hander Matt Mitchell (14th) were good late-round picks. Lough jumps onto the Top 10 list this year, while Mitchell posted a 3.63 FIP in low-A ball in ’08. He then missed all of ’09 due to injury.

2006 1st Round: Luke Hochevar, RHP, Independent League
2. Jason Taylor, IF/OF, Virginia HS
3. Blake Wood, RHP, Georgia Tech
x- Derrick Robinson, Florida HS

Hochevar spent almost the entire season in the Royals’ starting rotation, but he allowed 167 hits in 143.0 innings and posted a 4.84 FIP. Already 26, Hochevar is going to have trouble living up to the hype as the first overall draft pick during the ’06 draft. Despite immense raw talent, Taylor just hasn’t been able to put everything together. He’s still just 21, though, and he hit .272/.357/.391 in 292 low-A at-bats.

Wood has a good fastball but he’s struggled in double-A the last two seasons and he was bitten by the injury bug in ’09. Despite blazing speed, Robinson has posted very low BABIPs in each of the past two seasons (.305, .281), which have significantly hurt his ability to get on base. The club drafted ’09 supplemental first round draft pick (Cincinnati) Brad Boxberger in the 20th round out of a California high school.

Tomorrow: The Royals Top 10 prospect list

Earlier in the day, RJ took a look at David Wright’s drop in power. Although a number of Mets lost power in 2009 (most likely as a result of the move to Citi Field), Wright saw the biggest decline. In addition, Wright showed little difference between his home and away ISO, suggesting that the drop was not entirely the result of playing at Citi.

Wright’s drop in power intrigued me as well. In addition to this power drop, another striking trend was that his strikeout rate, which had averaged 19% previous to 2009, jumped to 26%. The fact that he still took a healthy number of walks and hit for his absurd .400 BABIP kept his overall performance with the bat quite good (.368), though down for his career average of .391. Here I am going to look at that increase in strikeouts and drop in power on a per-pitch basis with the pitchf/x data.

His increase in strikeouts was driven completely by his performance against RHPs. Below is his strike out rate by pitcher handedness (green is average, red RHP and blue LHP).

I am sure there are many interesting things to examine here. As a first step, I found that his contact rate against RHPs dropped from 82% in 2008 and 2007 (when I have the per-pitch data from pitchf/x) to 79% in 2009. This is one of those seemingly small changes, which magnified over the entire season, has a large effect. Just as I looked at the contact rate by location for Scutaro last week, I do that for Wright here, breaking it up by year.

Previously, Wright had a large sweet spot mid-height and middle-in, where he made contact over 95% of the time. This region has shrunk drastically and moved further down and in. Previously, he made contact with pitches over 87% of the time throughout maybe half of the zone, down and away. Again this zone shifted even further down and away and got smaller. Overall, it seems like he is making poorer contact on pitches in the middle of and away half of the zone, as well as pitches higher in the zone.

His power was down against both RHPs and LHPs. Again here there are many ways one could look at this, but one of the more striking patterns I found was how his ISO varied with horizontal pitch location.

Wright’s power peaks middle-in, like most hitters. In 2009, it was down throughout the strike zone, but particularly on pitches in the middle and outside of the plate. Put together, in 2009 Wright lost the most power and contact on pitches from middle-in to the outside edge of the plate.

As RJ noted, most likely Wright will rebound next year. The question is how much of this was drop in true talent and how much just flukey bad luck.

Our expectation is that anyone who reads this site on a regular basis has been given a strong education in the ways of WAR. But there’s a missing facet that you should not forget when putting together a player’s total value of what he does on the diamond, and that is baserunning. Sky Kalkman has visited this subject a time or two, and since he’s ridden off into the sunset for the time being, and I’m recently riding back into the picture, I’ll just pick up where he left off and give you an update on 2009 non-stolen bases baserunning.

Baseball Prospectus has a remarkable metric measuring baserunning. Here at FanGraphs we already include stolen bases/caught stealing in a player’s wOBA, but any educated baseball fan knows that there is more to baserunning than just steals. There is the art of taking extra bases on ground balls, fly balls, hits while not getting caught doing it. God-given speed has its place, but it takes brains and instincts on knowing when to be the aggressor and when not to.

The numbers presented are EQBRR – EQSBR (total baserunning runs minus stolen base runs.)

First let’s take a look at the best baserunning teams of 2009.

Team        Runs
Rockies       14
Marlins       12
Cardinals     10
Angels         8
Athletics      8
Rays           8
Giants         7
Twins          6
Blue Jays      6
Diamdonbacks   3
Tigers         3
Dodgers        2
Astros         1
Mariners       1
Red Sox        0
Indians        0
Brewers        0
Padres         0
Reds          -1
Phillies      -1
Mets          -2
Nationals     -3
White Sox     -4
Cubs          -5
Yankees       -6
Rangers       -6
Royals        -7
Braves       -10
Pirates      -13
Orioles      -15

The Rockies, Marlins and Cardinals all helped themselves to the tune of a full win thanks to their heady base-running. That’s a feather in their caps. The Cardinals and Marlins do not steal a lot of bases, but they know when to be aggressive on the basepaths and wreak havoc on opposing teams. How the Cardinals can put up a full win of baserunning with Yadier Molina on their team is a feat within itself.

The Braves, Buccos and O’s on the other hand put together quite a comedy show on the basepaths.

The major take away here is that for the best and worst teams, the difference was just a +/- a win (roughly).

Next up, we’ll look at the individual leaders and laggards.

The Reds have entered the offseason looking to trim payroll, according to multiple sources. The Reds have multiple contracts which could offer immediate relief if unloaded, specifically those of Bronson Arroyo ($14.25M guaranteed through 2011), Aaron Harang ($14.5M guaranteed through 2011) and Francisco Cordero ($25.25M through 2012).

In order to unload these contracts, the Reds will probably have to include somebody who is more likely to provide surplus value to a club. Joey Votto fits that bill perfectly, as a pre-arb all-star caliber player. Unfortunately for the rest of the league, when asked if Votto could be included in a trade this offseason, Reds GM Walt Jocketty replied “Oh God, no!”

And for good reason. In Votto, the Reds have a threat with the bat and a stopper with the glove. Votto improved on his stellar rookie season of 2008 by 45 points of wOBA, posting an incredible .418 mark. His UZR fell below average, but he has a career UZR/150 of +4 runs. The Fan’s Scouting Report also rated Votto as a slightly above-average overall fielder. Overall, in roughly two years of MLB service, Votto has put up 8.2 wins. A 4 win season basically defines all-star, and that’s exactly what Votto has done in his short career.

A .418 wOBA again might be too much to expect of the young Votto. His BABIP in 2009 was an unsustainable .373, even higher than his 2008 mark of .330. Votto does have a well above average LD rate, which dropped to a still excellent 21.7% in 2009, making his 2009 BABIP seem even odder. Still, a BB% increase from 10.3% to 13.0% is a great sign for the Reds, and at the least, Votto seems capable of maintaining a wOBA between his .373 mark of 2008 and his 2009 mark of .418.

Even at the bottom ends of his production, a .373 wOBA and merely average fielding, Votto is roughly a 3 win player. Votto will enter his age 27 season in 2010, and the Reds will hold him through his age 30 season in 2013. The Reds will be paying only about $500K for his services in 2010, and his OBP-heavy hitting skillset is likely to be undervalued in arbitration. He likely will not receive the awards that Ryan Howard ($10M, $15M, $19M) received, nor what Prince Fielder ($7.5M, $11.5M including signing bonus first two years) received in arbitration. With Votto producing as he has through his career, he is one of the best assets in the MLB. Jocketty’s response was right on the money.