It must be the off-season since it’s time for the annual Mark Prior-inspired period of optimism. Yesterday, Buster Olney reported the 29-year-old is prepared to work out for scouts soon enough. Three entire Major League seasons have passed since Prior last threw a pitch in a regular season game in the majors or minors. That hasn’t stopped some from still hoping Prior will one day make the long trek back to the majors once again.

Okay, or maybe it’s just me.

Everyone knows his tale of the papyrus-thin tendons and ligaments resulting in macabre injuries, but how many have forgotten that one magical season where Prior lived up to the hype, the status, and created what now seems like myth? 2003 was Prior’s first full season in the bigs after appearing in 19 games for the Cubs in 2002. He would start 30 games, pitch 211.3 innings, allow 57 earned runs, strike out 245, and walk 50. Anytime you can take a starting pitcher’s earned runs, add his homers and walks, double it, and still have a total lower than his strikeouts, I would say he’s having a special season.

Take a look at how Prior’s 2003 matches up to Zack Greinke’s 2009 – keep in mind the league averages have fluctuated a bit, so the comparison isn’t 1:1, but stick with me:

K%
Prior 28.4%
Greinke 26.5%

BB%
Prior 5.8%
Greinke 5.6%

X/H%
Prior 33%
Greinke 32%

HR/FB
Prior 7.5%
Greinke 4.5%

Comparable by those measures. Prior’s 2.47 FIP and 3.23 tRA match up considerably well to Greinke’s 2.33 FIP and 2.81 tRA, as well. Prior pitched fewer innings and induced fewer groundballs, but being “slightly worse” than Greinke’s 2009 season is a tag most pitchers would desire.

The odds of Prior making it back to the majors are probably pretty low. I realize that. I’d just rather ignore it for a few days a year.

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For more prospect-related talk, feel free to check out my piece on evaluating young catchers at Baseball America. A subscription is required.

As explained in the overview post, here, this is part of a series looking at the best and worst defensive performers over the past three combined seasons. Rankings are done by adding a player’s UZR with his aggregate positional adjustment so as to level the playing field with regards to difficulty. Essentially, it’s removing the grading curve.

Previously covered:
The Best
5th, Ryan Zimmerman 43.7 runs above average.
4th, Omar Vizquel 45.8 runs above average.
3rd, J.J. Hardy 48.7 runs above average.
2nd, Franklin Gutierrez 51.4 runs above average.
1st, Chase Utley 54.8 runs above average.

The Worst
5th, Jason Bay -64.9 runs to average.
4th, Ken Griffey Jr. -66.9 runs to average.
3rd, Jermaine Dye -80.6 runs to average.

Tonight, the second worst player from 2007-9: OF Brad Hawpe.

As big of a fall as it was from Griffey and Bay to Jermaine Dye, it’s an even bigger fall down to Brad Hawpe. Brad Hawpe is the Chase Utley of bad, riding a remarkably consistent stretch of awful fielding to a whopping -101.1 total runs below average.

Hawpe finished with the second worst total in both of 2007 and 2009 and was by himself atop the 2008 all-awful leader board. His range ratings have been bottom of the barrel for some time now. His terrific arm managed to push him above average in 2006 as he recorded 16 assists. He’s never come close to repeating that total since and his range has deteriorated further, so that his three year total reached this vaunted triple digit club.

Hawpe’s value is vastly inflated thanks to the continuing under appreciation of defense and the still understated effect of parks. Most people see the solid average (.283 career) and four consecutive seasons with 20 plus home runs. Some even see the OBPs above .380 and OPS above .879 for each of said four seasons leading to wOBAs of .376 to .389 from 2006-9. Once you park-adjust those numbers, however, they drop to providing just about 20 runs above average, runs that are taken away — and then some — by his defense. All told, Brad Hawpe has averaged 0.6 WAR in the three years covered in this ranking.

Trade rumors surfaced this past July concerning Hawpe but were quickly denied by the Colorado front office. Now with an entire winter to work with, the Rockies would really benefit from shopping Hawpe’s name around, especially to American League teams, to see if someone would bite. After all, his contract ($7.5M next year, $10M option in 2011) is not bad, even considering his defensive deficiencies. As a DH, Hawpe would probably gain a half win or so in value, and who knows, maybe there is a team out there that values Hawpe as an outfielder. Either way, the Rockies should explore finding someone more suited to patrol their spacious outfield.

The last time Xavier Nady was in the limelight he was in the midst of career best season, hitting .305/.357/.510 and finishing 2008 with the New York Yankees after a mid-season trade. In July, Nady’s 2009 campaign officially ended after undergoing Tommy John surgery on his throwing elbow. Unfortunately for the (in two days) 31-year-old, he enters free agency coming off what amounts to a week full of regular season playing time over the last 12 months.

From 2005-7, Nady hit .274/.330/.457 in 1,338 plate appearances. In 2008, he hit .305/.357/.510 in 607 plate appearances and the Pirates sold high on him to the Yankees. Nady’s gratuitous BABIP inflation faded after the trade – err, I mean he melted under the pressure of the bright lights – and his OPS went from .919 with the Pirates to .794 with the Yanks. A napkin estimation of Nady’s 2010 wOBA probably lands you in the .330-.340 range. Or, average-to-slightly-above.

Any team interested in Nady has to consider what his arm was before the injury and what it will be like afterwards. From 2005-7 Nady posted exactly zero positive arm ratings, and in 2008 he was about a run above average. He won’t make a ton of errors but he also won’t make a ton of difficult grabs either. UZR rates him as an annually slightly below average defender even with a positive 2008 thrown into the mix. Dewan’s Plus/Minus agrees with the slightly below average description.

That makes Nady essentially an average right-handed hitting corner outfielder. Gabe Kapler is somewhat comparable and he signed a one-year, $1.05M deal with the Rays before hitting the open market. Mark Kotsay signed a similar deal but he’s a lefty. He’s not a four-win player like he was in 2008 and teams know this. Factor in the injury and it’s hard to see him making near his $6.5M salary from this season, not that Scott Boras won’t try.

I’m probably preaching to the choir when I say that the MLB season is truly a grind for the analytically oriented baseball enthusiast. Oh sure, lay fans might see us and say stuff like “Get a life, nerd” or “Ghostly pallor much?” or “Put on pants!”, but it’s only because they don’t understand how much hustle and grit and whatever-all-else-David-Eckstein-has it takes to make it through a season at the top of one’s sabermetric game.

Every single day from basically the middle of February (when pitchers and catchers report) till the end of the World Series, it’s “prep for this fantasy draft” or “read that blog post” or “look up all these other guys’ WARs.” For real, it can be exhausting.

Which is why, when the offseason comes around, even the most sticktoitive of us are thankful for the rest. And sure, some downtime is good: catch up on the movie films, eat some pie (why not, it tastes so good!), visit all our babies’ mamas — you know, the regular stuff. That said, it’s also imperative that we don’t begin to rest on our laurels (wherever those are located). No, some form of offseason training regimen is absolutely necessary, especially as the bar for baseballing nerdom gets set higher and higher.

Now, I don’t claim to have all the answers. I’m not a licensed sabermetric trainer or anything like that (although I maybe accidentally performed CPR on a sleeping person once, if that counts). But I can introduce you to one exercise that helps me stay sharp as tacks. And here’s the best part about it: you can do it while drinking beer.

It’s called the Player Profile Exercise (PPE), and it’s the picture of simplicity. All you do is:

1. Pick up a a recent offseason annual (i.e. Baseball Prospectus, Hardball Times Season Preview, etc.).

2. Read aloud from any single player profile, being careful to omit player or team names that might give away the identity of this particular player.

3. Challenge your friends to guess whose profile you’re reading. (Oh yeah, I forgot, it’s for two or more people.)

4. Pass the book off and repeat.

Got it?

Let’s try a couple, how about. (Note: These are from the 2008 edition of BP, so set your mental gauges appropriately.)

All of the talk about how BLANK is going to become a better hitter is both misguided and unnecessary. BLANK’s 35 home runs in 2006 already seem like a bit of an outlier, and his career batting average in the minors was .261, but as he’s likely to hit 25-plus homers a year while drawing 100 walks, can play all three outfield positions and first base, and plays the game as hard as anyone in baseball, BLANK has a lot of value even when he hits .250 to .260. He’s not going to get much better, but he doesn’t need to.

Did you guess Eddie Stanky? I hope not, because if you did, you (a) are wrong and (b) probably have some kind of weird psychological disorder that only Oliver Sacks can cure. The actual answer is at the end of this post.

How about this one?

Last year we said that BLANK could succeed as a starter if only the BLANKs would give him the opportunity. It still took an injury to BLANK for BLANK to get that chance, but there’s no looking back now. He’s basically Chien-Ming Wang with better stuff, and his strikeout rate grew throughout the season. If he turns out to be a better pitcher than BLANK for the remainder of the decade, we won’t be shocked.

I can’t tell if that’s harder or easier than the first. I do know that the Wang comp is incredibly helpful. (Semi-related challenge: say “Wang comp” five times fast. Go!) Once again, the answer for this one’s below.

As far as muscle groups go, the PPE works a number of them. In the absence of contextual signifiers like team names or teammates‘ names, the PPE forces one to pay close attention to other telling details — whether they be comparables (as in the second case), playing time or pitcher usage issues (also as in the second case), hitting approach (as with the first one), or defensive positioning (also in the first). Those are all categories of which a first rate baseball nerd should have intimate knowledge.

Prospect ranking season is here. Top 10 lists will be arriving shortly and in preparation for that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The series is back for a second year.

The Graduate: Chris Coghlan, LF/2B
A college third baseman and minor league second baseman, Coghlan moved to the outfield at the MLB level in ’09 to help fill the void after rookie Cameron Maybin showed that he needed more seasoning. Coghlan hit well: .321/.390/.460 in 504 at-bats. However, he lacks the power to be an impact corner outfielder, so he would be helped by a trade of veteran second baseman Dan Uggla. Although he stole just eight bases in 13 attempts, Coghlan has stolen 30+ bags in the minors. He posted a 2.3 WAR in ’09 but his -14.5 UZR/150 took a bite out of his ’09 value.

The Riser: Brad Hand, LHP
The 19-year-old Hand had a respectable first full year in pro ball. He allowed 130 hits in 127.2 innings of work. Hand walked too many batters with a rate of 4.65 BB/9, but the southpaw posted a strikeout rate of 8.60 K/9. After not allowing a home run in his pro debut in ’08 (47.2 IP), Hand gave up 12 in ’09 (0.85 HR/9), which is a reasonable rate. He ended the year well by limiting hitters to a .160 average in August. The southpaw will likely move up to high-A ball in ’10, and he will look to improve the command of his secondary pitches.

The Tumbler: Kyle Skipworth, C
An ’08 first round draft pick, Skipworth’s bat has wilted in pro ball. On the positive side, he’s still just 19 years old, so he has time to get things going. In low-A ball in ’09, Skipworth hit .208/.263/.348 with an ISO of .140 in 264 at-bats. He walked just 18 times (6.4 BB%) while striking out an eye-popping 34.5% of the time. Catchers often suffer from low BABIPs and Skipworth has been no different after posting rates of .259 in ’08 and .289 in ’09. The left-handed hitter batted just .091 versus southpaws, albeit in just 44 at-bats. Defensively, he threw out just 20% of runners attempting to steal.

The ’10 Sleeper: Daniel Jennings, LHP
With a low payroll, the Marlins club will always be looking for cheap relief options, and Jennings, 22, has positioned himself well for a shot in 2010. The southpaw pitched at three levels in ’09 and topped out in double-A. He spent the majority of his time in low-A and allowed 42 hits in 49.1 innings of work. Jennings handled left-handed and right-handed batters equally well, although he posted a much higher strikeout rate against same-side hitters. He posted an excellent strikeout rate at 9.85 K/9 and showed OK control with a walk rate of 3.83 BB/9. On the season, Jennings allowed just one home run in 62.2 innings.

Bonus: Jeff Allison, RHP
The former jewel of the system is still trying to salvage his career after a struggle with drugs. Giving him the benefit of the doubt, Allison was highlighted as a potential breakout candidate in ’09. The right-hander showed solid control and posted a walk rate of 1.94 BB/9 in high-A ball. His strikeout rate, though, was 4.59 K/9 and his plus fastball of old is still MIA. Regardless, Allison posted a 4.21 FIP and allowed 151 hits in 139.1 innings. He also allowed 13 homers (0.84 HR/9). Now 25, Allison has a shot at reaching the Majors in 2010 or 2011 as a middle reliever.

Prospect ranking season is here. Top 10 lists will be arriving shortly and in preparation for that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The series is back for a second year.

The Graduate: Matt Wieters, C
Wieters did not burst onto the MLB landscape quite as forcefully as some might have hoped, but he had a solid debut for someone with just two years of pro experience. Despite beginning the year in the minors, the catcher still posted a WAR of 1.9 and was worth roughly $8.4 million to the club. Wieters also made improvements as the year progressed. He showed that he’s currently a very good fastball hitter, but he needs to improve against breaking balls (especially sliders). For a rookie catcher, a line of .288/.340/.412 is nothing to sneeze at… and he’s only going to get better.

The Riser: Brandon Waring, 3B
Obtained from Cincinnati in the Ramon Hernandez trade, Waring continued to improve in ’09 and he has hit 20+ homers in all three of his pro seasons. This past year, playing mostly in high-A ball before a seven-game trial in double-A, Waring hit .273/.354/.520 in 473 at-bats. The biggest knock against him entering ’09 was his +30.0% strikeout rates, but he trimmed that to 25.6%, a more reasonable number for a slugger. His walk rate was just shy of 10.0%. Waring isn’t anything special at the hot corner, so he spent 76 games at first base in ’09 where he was OK. He could be the O’s first baseman of the future if Brandon Snyder cannot hack it.

The Tumbler: Billy Rowell, OF
Rowell has officially lost the debate over who was the best high school hitter of the ’06 draft… Rowell or Travis Snider. The Orioles minor leaguer is not even considered a future big-league hitter by some. After a dismal ’08 offensive season, ’09 got even worse (even though he was repeating high-A) with a triple-slash line of .225/.284/.336 in 423 at-bats. Rowell has about zero defensive value, as well. His once heralded power has diminished with his ISO dropping each season from .178 to .153 to .120 to .111.

The ’10 Sleeper: Caleb Joseph, C
When it rains, it pours. The organization already has a top-notch, young starting catcher in Wieters, but Joseph is zooming up the depth chart. He won’t unseat Wieters at the MLB level, but Joseph could be valuable trade bait if the organization does not want to waste his talent by sitting him on the bench for five or six games a week. Playing in high-A in ’09, the 23-year-old Joseph hit .284/.337/.450 with a .166 ISO in 380 at-bats.

Bonus: Brandon Erbe, RHP
I won’t get too in-depth with Erbe here because he’s going to appear on the ’09 Top 10 list for the Orioles. However, he was highlighted in the ’08 series as the sleeper for ’09 and he delivered. With five years of pro experience under his belt, Erbe is still just 21 years of age (He turns 22 in December).

There are a few signposts that let us know winter has arrived – the leaves change, the grocery stores try to sell us pumpkin everything, and the Florida Marlins begin trading off arbitration eligible players. This year, the annual fire sale has already claimed Jeremy Hermida, and the expectation is that Dan Uggla will be the next to go.

I wonder, though – did the Marlins wait too long to deal him?

There was significant interest in Uggla a year ago, when he was coming off a +5 win season and was still quite the bargin; he made just $5.35 million in 2010. However, given another year of service time, Uggla is going to be looking at a ~$9 million arbitration award. That salary makes him a little pricey for small payroll clubs.

He also turns 30 in May, and his defense is considered poor enough that he’s likely to be moved off of second base by whoever acquires him. So, the Marlins are essentially marketing a third baseman who is going to get a one year salary about equal to what they would have to pay to sign a comparable free agent – in this case, Adrian Beltre or Chone Figgins.

The upside is that Uggla doesn’t require a long term commitment, but given the rate of raises in arbitration, he’s a non-tender candidate next winter. The Marlins are really only selling one year of value, and as a 30-year-old third baseman in this economy, he’s not that much of a bargain.

A year ago, Uggla would have brought a solid return of prospects from a team looking for a power hitting second baseman. Now, though, I think the Marlins will have to settle for a mediocre package just to get him off the books. Was keeping Uggla in Florida for 2009 really worth the reduction in his trade value to the Marlins?

It sure doesn’t seem like it to me. This appears to be a case of selling a year too late.

In a market with such injury prone aces as Rich Harden and Erik Bedard available to teams this offseason, it can be easy to forget about one ace who missed all of 2009 on the shelf. That would be Ben Sheets, the former ace of the Milwaukee Brewers, who spent the entire season recovering from an elbow injury suffered at the end of the 2008 season, and whose elbow injury negated a two-year contract he had signed with Texas.

As a fan of the Milwaukee Brewers last season, I really missed Ben Sheets, as the Brewers starting pitching staff combined for a miserable 13.1 runs above replacement. Still, it had been nearly as disappointing watching, year after year, as Sheets missed more and more time due to injury. From 2005-2008, Sheets only averaged 150 innings per season. He missed significant time each season, only making more than 30 starts once, in 2008, before his season-ending injury which caused him to miss all of 2009.

Of course, that doesn’t mean that Sheets doesn’t bring value to a team. He has legitimate ace stuff. He has a career K/BB ratio of 3.85 and a career FIP of 3.56. His fastball and curveball combo is deadly, as both pitches have been worth nearly +.60 runs above average per 100 pitches over his career.

Much like with J.D. Drew, we have an example of a very talented player who just can’t seem to play a full season. Still, Sheets has potential provide value at the level of a John Lackey type pitcher. Since 2002, Sheets has provided 29.8 WAR, or 3.8 per season (excluding 2009). That total WAR mark ties him for 16th of the win value era with Tim Hudson, who has thrown 200 more innings over that time frame. It’s 1.5 more wins than Carlos Zambrano has in 350 fewer innings.

The thing with Sheets is that the best predictor of future injury is past injury. Because of this, it would be irresponsible of any team to expect more than 150 innings out of the former Milwaukee ace. However, unless this latest injury took all the life out of Sheets’s arm, it’s a good bet that they’ll be excellent innings, and I would expect that major league teams understand this. The question is which one is willing to take the biggest chance.

In the aftermath of the Teahen-for-Getz-and-Fields trade, there is a rumor that the Royals see Fields as an option in left field, and are exploring the trade market for David DeJesus. Fields’ abilities aside, they should be.

Many probably think of DeJesus as a player who is good… for the Royals. He no longer has the range to play CF well, and he doesn’t hit as one usually expects from a left fielder. Maybe that’s why so many people who should know better say things like “DeJesus is a fourth outfielder on a good team.” Those people should be embarrassed.

Here are three-year WAR totals for five outfielders from 2007-2009: 9.2, 8.9, 8.7, 7.4, 6.5. Without looking, who are these players?

In order: Torii Hunter, Johnny Damon, David DeJesus, Andre Ethier, and Jason Bay.

That’s right, over the last three seasons, DeJesus has been practically equal in value to Hunter (whose overrated-ness is seriously underrated) and Damon (just plain overrated); DeJesus has been more valuable than Ethier and Jason “Do People Seriously Think I’m Anywhere Close to as Good as Matt Holliday?” Bay. All five are good, but would DeJesus ever be offered a 5/$90M deal? Would his agent ever compare him to Derek Jeter? Would anyone bother comparing DeJesus to Holliday? Would you take anyone seriously who said that “Ethier is a fourth outfielder on a good team?”

Take Bay, one of the alleged prizes of the free agent crop. I have him as about a 2.5-3 WAR player next season — decent. As for DeJesus, I have him as about a +10 fielder and a +6 hitter — so he’s also right in that 2.5-3 WAR area. Maybe Bay’s closer to 3 and DDJ’s closer to 2.5, but think about this: could you get Jason Bay for 2/$10.7M? Because that’s all DeJesus is going to cost if a team picks up his 2011 option. In other words, teams contending now in and in need of a left fielder would do well to look into DeJesus — he’s likely to be worth at least twice as what he’s paid, and he’s just about as good as the far more expensive options on the open market.

On the Royals’ end, Dayton Moore has spent the last year or two ensuring that he has to be brought up in any “worst GM” conversation. He might finally be doing what he should have done three years ago — trading older assets that are unlikely to be with the Royals (or shouldn’t be) when they have a chance at contending. Whether or not Moore knows what DeJesus and his contract are worth in the young talent the Royals should be pursuing is one (big) question; whether he is able to identify such players is another. It’s potentially a step in the right direction. If Moore can find another team willing to give up appropriate talent, this could be a good move for both teams.

Maybe then smart Royals fans would be a bit more willing to put aside their lust for instant gratification and Trust the Process™.

And maybe, just maybe, Omar Minaya might be all alone at the bottom of the pile.

As explained in the overview post, here, this is part of a series looking at the best and worst defensive performers over the past three combined seasons. Rankings are done by adding a player’s UZR with his aggregate positional adjustment so as to level the playing field with regards to difficulty. Essentially, it’s removing the grading curve.

Previously covered:
The Best
5th, Ryan Zimmerman 43.7 runs above average.
4th, Omar Vizquel 45.8 runs above average.
3rd, J.J. Hardy 48.7 runs above average.
2nd, Franklin Gutierrez 51.4 runs above average.
1st, Chase Utley 54.8 runs above average.

The Worst
5th, Jason Bay -64.9 runs to average.
4th, Ken Griffey Jr. -66.9 runs to average.

Tonight, the third worst player from 2007-9: OF Jermaine Dye.

It’s a big gap from Bay and Griffey, in the mid-60s runs below average, to Dye, who racked up an astounding 80.6 runs below average over the last three seasons.

Dye has been an enigma at the plate the past few seasons, posting a .417 wOBA in 2006, then a .343 in 2007 followed by a rebound back up to .376 and then a downfall back to .344 this past season. In the field, however, it’s been a smoothly consistent four years of suck. Dye’s UZRs in that time frame: -22.5, -21.6, -19.4 and -18.7. Hey, he’s improving! By 2025, he’ll be up to average.

Seriously, though, he flat out stinks and his unpredictable offense makes him a poor overall value. If he could mash like he did in 2006, that would be one thing; he managed a 3.2 WAR that year. But since then, he’s been worth 0.9 WAR combined in three seasons as his bat has dropped off.

As for 2010, Dye has a reportedly mutual option with the White Sox, who now also have room for him at DH with the end of Jim Thome’s contract. At 36 years of age, it is highly unlikely that Dye will be worth anywhere near the $12 million owed to him in the option. It is also highly unlikely that Dye would be able to come close to that on the free market, so it would be wise of him to exercise it if he has such a choice. If so, we might yet see him on this list next year.