As we discussed this afternoon, Scott Boras has taken to comparing his star free agent of this winter to his star free agent of last winter, as he aims to get Matt Holliday a contract similar to what the Yankees gave Mark Teixeira a year ago. In the comments, the question was raised why I placed Holliday in a lower tier than Teixeira, despite the fact that Holliday has the superior WAR rating.

Before we get into the specifics of Holliday versus Teixeira, let me say something about WAR. Obviously, we’re big proponents of it has an evaluation tool. We think it’s the best single value metric out there for players. We do not think its perfect and infallible, however. There are portions of the game that are currently not measured (non-steal base running, catcher defense, and league differences being the most notable), and we’ve discussed the limitations of UZR ad nauseam (I believe that Teixeira is probably a bit better than his UZR has shown). There is room for discussion when two players are within the same general range.

As it pertains to Holliday and Teixeira, the key here is league differences. For various reasons, we don’t incorporate those into the WAR ratings, but they have been fairly significant for the last five or six years. The AL is just a better group of talent than the NL, and as such, when two players who post equal numbers in the different leagues, the AL player has to be presumed to be better. He’s facing better competition and creating the same results, which is inherently more valuable.

The best estimates for the differences between the AL and NL range between +0.25 and +0.5 wins per season. When comparing players across leagues, this is not an insignificant factor. That Holliday has had the bulk of his success come in the NL requires a downward adjustment to the value of that performance. Likewise, Teixeira’s ability to perform in the AL enhances his value.

Now, that doesn’t mean that Holliday’s going to turn into a pumpkin upon arrival in the AL. After all, he gave the A’s +3 wins of value in 400 PA, which was still quite valauble. However, we just can’t translate his Colorado and St. Louis performances over to the AL without an adjustment, and those are the places where Holliday has performed like a superstar.

Even after the league adjustment, though, Holliday and Teixeira come out as similar in value. They’re essentially the same age. Why would I prefer Teixeira going forward?

All types of past performance are not equally predictive of future performance. One of the driving forces of Holliday’s offensive value is his strong batting average on balls in play. Over the last three years, his .363 BABIP is tied with Chone Figgins for the third highest in baseball, behind only Ichiro Suzuki and Matt Kemp.

BABIP is simply more subject to variance than Teixeira’s preferred method of production – hitting the ball really far. Even though Holliday has been able to sustain a high BABIP, we still have to regress his projcted BABIP further towards the mean than we do Teixeira’s ISO, as the latter has simply shown to be more stable historically. Even though their results over the last few years have produced similar value, Teixeira’s taking the safer path to those results. Holliday’s dependence on a high BABIP for his offensive value makes him a greater risk, and increases in risk drive down value.

I expect that we’ll see these concerns manifest themselves in the marketplace as well. My guess is that Holliday will end up signing for 10 to 15 percent less than what Teixeira got, because teams are also a bit skeptical of unadjusted National League numbers and don’t see him as the same kind of power hitter.

Holliday is a very good player, and certainly the best free agent on the market. But when comparing him to Teixeira, it’s important to not stop at a simple WAR analysis.

This June I posted a ranking of the “average-est” positional players in baseball (according to current WAR). R.J. liked it so much that he “borrowed” the idea for a post later in the summer. It’s just a toy stat, but a fun one. Simply subtract the “replacement” runs from a players contribution, and the absolute value of the remaining runs is the amount a position player is away from league average. (It’s not as straightforward with pitching.) Part of the fun is seeing the different ways one can get to be league average in relation to hitting, fielding, and positional value. So now that the season is over, who were the average-est position players of 2009?

The number after the player’s name is the players “absolute” difference from average according to stats here at FanGraphs (remember the usual qualifications and take this with grain of salt). Unlike earlier in the season, there are fewer players at the extremes of hitting and fielding value.

5) Clint Barmes (1.3). Maybe I just don’t follow the NL West closely enough, but am I the only one who gets this guy mixed up with Garrett Atkins? I shouldn’t, because despite being about as bad at the plate as Atkins this season, he’s a far better defender. I was surprised to see that Barmes has logged more career innings at SS than 2B, and has performed well there (+6.2 career UZR/150).

4) Magglio Ordonez (0.8). This is a shock, given just how public Ordonez’ struggles with the bat this season were. Well, at least the Tigers avoided triggering that massive vesting option for 2010. Oh, wait.

[Bengie Molina (0.7). It’s the Giants’ awesome cleanup hitter! Better than some might think… doesn’t take much for a catcher. However, I decided he shouldn’t count since FanGraphs WAR doesn’t currently incorporate catcher defense. If you do include one of the available measures for 2009 catcher defense, Molina’s clearly below average. Don’t worry Giants fans, your boys aren’t totally out of it…]

3) Aaron Rowand (0.7). I don’t think this is what the Giants were looking for when they signed him. Not horrible or great in any one area — slightly below average as a hitter, slightly above average as a defensive center fielder.

2) Jimmy Rollins (0.3). So close! Rollins had a dreadful year with the bat (although he rebounded in the second half), and a down year in the field (for him) according to UZR, but for a shortstop, that’s good enough to be a league-average player. I’ll be posting more on him in a few days.

1) Ryan Ludwick (0.0). At 18.1 RAR and with 18.1 replacement runs, Ludwick was a perfectly average positional player of 2009. While he was slightly above average as a hitter (5.3) and fielder (1.3), he played a less demanding corner outfield position for -6.4. It’s a far cry from 2008’s 5.6 WAR, and a lesson in regression to the mean, but he was still a bargain at $3.7M. Congratulations on your perfect adequacy, Mr. Ludwick! No wonder you made that cameo on Shaq Vs.

For Average-ness rankings of all qualified 2009 position players, click here.

Prospect ranking season is here. Top 10 lists will be arriving shortly and in preparation for that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The series is back for a second year.

The Graduate: Brett Gardner, OF
Gardner wasn’t a star during his rookie season in New York but he showed that he can – at the very least – be a useful fourth outfielder on a good team. The 26-year-old outfielder hit .270/.345/.379 with a .109 ISO in 248 at-bats. Gardner was a force on the base paths and stole 26 bases in 31 attempts. Overall, he posted a 2.1 WAR on the year and the majority of his value came from his defensive prowess (15.4 UZR/150 in center field).

The Riser: D.J. Mitchell, RHP
A 10th round draft pick out of Clemson University in ’08, Mitchell did not make his pro debut until ’09. The right-hander began the year in low-A ball and posted a 1.85 FIP in six starts. He then moved up to high-A where he allowed 93 hits in 103.1 innings of work. Mitchell showed good control with a walk rate of 3.31 BB/9 and his strikeout rate was solid at 7.23 K/9. He allowed just two home runs all year. His repertoire includes an 88-92 mph fastball, curveball and change-up. Right-handed batters hit just .197 against Mitchell, while left-handers hit .290.

The Tumbler: Dellin Betances, RHP
Betances’ numbers were OK in ’09 (3.76 FIP), but he gets tagged with the “tumbler” status because he was yet again unable to stay healthy for a full season. The right-hander made 24 starts in ’08, but he struggled with injuries in both ’07 and ’09, making just 11 appearances this past year. The time off could certainly be affecting his control and he posted a walk rate of 5.48 BB/9. Throughout all the injury woes, Betances has done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park (0.41 HR/9 in ’09).

The ’10 Sleeper: Brett Marshall, RHP
Drafted in ’08 along with Mitchell, the pair is looking to make New Yorkers forget about Gerrit Cole. Marshall, 19, had a bit of a rough year in 2009 with a 5.56 ERA and 98 hits allowed in 87.1 innings, but his FIP was just 4.45 and he showed OK control (3.81 BB/9) given his age and experience level. His fastball velocity ranges from 89-94 mph and he also has three other pitches that he dabbles with: slider, curveball, and change-up. Look for the right-hander to take another step forward in ’10.

Bonus: Austin Romine, C
During the ’08 series, the Yankees catching prospect was highlighted as a potential breakout candidate for ’09, Romine did just that. I won’t go into too much detail because he’s going to show up on the Top 10 list for the organization. Romine has a very good chance of being the Yankees’ starting catcher of the future… if Jorge Posada’s age ever catches up to him. (And yes, I am assuming Jesus Montero will move to 1B or DH).

Prospect ranking season is here. Top 10 lists will be arriving shortly and in preparation for that, we present an intro series looking at some of the players who deserve mentioning but probably will not be appearing on their teams’ Top 10 lists. The series is back for a second year.

The Graduate: Jordan Schafer, OF
A lot was expected from the 23-year-old Schafer in ’09, but he hit just .204/.313/.287 in 167 at-bats and ended up back in the minors. His 63 strikeouts in 167 at-bats (37.7 K%) were a huge issue, but he did post a walk rate of 13.9 BB%. His contact rate of 64.6% was well below the league average of 80.5%. Defensively, he had some issues with his range in center field and, overall, he posted a WAR of -0.3. Schafer could very well need some more seasoning in triple-A before he’s ready for another shot at a full-time role in the Majors.

The Riser: Adam Milligan, OF
An injury prevented the ’08 draft pick from making his pro debut prior to the ’09 season. Milligan rose all the way to high-A in his first full season and he just narrowly missed the Top 10 list for the Braves. The outfielder hit .345/.393/.589 in 197 low-A at-bats and received a six-game trial in high-A, as well. Milligan, 21, displayed intriguing left-handed power (.244), but he needs to be a little more patient at the plate with a walk rate of 5.7 BB%. On the year, he held his own against southpaws with an .870 OPS, but he was even better against right-handers: 1.013 OPS. Milligan’s debut numbers were very impressive, but he was aided by a .394 BABIP.

The Tumbler: Cole Rohrbough, LHP
Rohrbough looked to be on the fast-track after solid numbers in his first two minor league seasons. Things fell apart a bit for him in ’09 as he allowed 129 hits in 117 innings of work in high-A. His ERA was 5.77 but his FIP was just 4.34. He posted a walk rate of 3.69 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.69 K/9. Rohrbough struggled with his command and allowed too many fat pitches, which resulted in an increased HR/9 rate to 0.92. The Braves could be aggressive with Rohrbough, 22, and move him up to double-A in ’10 given that his numbers were not quite as bad as they looked on the surface. He features an 89-93 mph fastball, curveball and change-up.

The ’10 Sleeper: Dimaster Delgado, LHP
Another left-handed pitcher, Delgado does not throw as hard as Rohrbaugh. His fastball currently sits at 86-90 mph but he projects to add velocity as he fills out. The southpaw also features a curveball and change-up. In ’09 at low-A ball, Delgado allowed 89 hits in 99.2 innings of work, while showing good control with a walk rate of 2.35 BB/9. He also posted a strikeout rate of 9.39 K/9 and did a nice job of limiting the home-run ball (0.36 HR/9). If he can add some velo and/or improve his ground-ball rate, Delgado could see his numbers improve even more.

Bonus: Erik Cordier, RHP
Highlighted in the ’08 series as a potential breakout candidate after returning from surgery, Cordier struggled with his control in ’09. At high-A ball, the right-hander posted a walk rate of 5.50 BB/9 while allowing 115 hits in 121.0 innings. His strikeout rate was just 6.55 and his stuff has not come all the way back to its pre-surgery form. Although he posted a 3.87 ERA, his FIP was 5.20. Cordier, a former Royals prospect, will hopefully continue to show improvements in ’10.

Tim Wakefield renegotiated his perpetual team option deal and instead will have a guaranteed two-year 5 million dollar contact, which he signed on Monday. Wakefield will turn 44 in the middle of next year and has 189 wins. The deal gives him a solid shot at 200 wins for his career. Additionally, 175 of those wins have come with the Sox, so he also has a chance at becoming the franchise leader in wins. Right now, Roger Clemens and Cy Young are tied with 192 wins.

I think it is a treat for all baseball fans that we can continue to watch Wakefield pitch, and pitchf/x analysts seem to love looking at the knuckle ball. Wakefield throws his knuckler about 85% of the time, and mixes in a fastball 10% of the time and a curve 5% of the time.

As you can see. his curve and fastball move in a similar manner to most. The fastball “rises” about ten inches and moves in to RHBs, while the curve drops ten inches and tails away from RHBs. His fastball averages 72 mph. making it far and away the slowest fastball in the game. I showed in a previous article that he uses it sort of like an anti-changeup. It is about 8 mph faster than his knuckleball, and its success is tied to its speed difference from the preceding knuckleball.

His curveball averages 59 mph, making it the game’s slowest pitch.

But the important thing here is the knuckleball, which has no consistent movement. It does not have a neatly defined area in spin deflection space like his curve or his fastball or almost all other pitches do. That is the key to its success; the batter doesn’t know how the pitch is going to move (neither does the catcher for that matter). John Walsh showed that the success of each pitch is tied to how much it moves. Those with little spin deflection (little movement) are hit often and hit hard. While those at the edge with more movement are whiffed at more and, when hit, for poorer contact.

Josh Kalk followed that up by showing that Wakefield’s knuckleballs have a greater “spread” in their movement than those of other pitchers who have recently tried the knuckbleball, like Josh Banks, Charlie Zink and Charlie Haeger, which is why Wakefield is the most successful.

I am a huge fan of the knuckleball, generally, and Wakefield, specifically. I hope that he can pick up those eighteen wins, so he will have over 200 and Red Sox franchise record.

Scott Boras says a lot of crazy things – perhaps none quite as absurd as when he compared Oliver Perez to Sandy Koufax last winter – when he’s out stumping for a big contract for his clients. So, we shouldn’t be overly surprised that Boras was willing to espouse platitudes about Matt Holliday to Jerry Crasnick, calling him a “franchise player” and comparing him to Mark Teixeira. In that comment, though, Boras claimed that there were “less than 30” franchise players, as he sought to put Holliday in that select company.

Setting aside that the phrase “franchise player” is vague and could mean different things to different people, I was curious to find out how many I thought there were in the game. So, let’s take a look.

First off, there’s the no argument tier. Regardless of what you think a franchise player is, pretty much everyone will agree that Albert Pujols, Joe Mauer, Chase Utley, Hanley Ramirez, Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Grady Sizemore, Evan Longoria, David Wright, Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, Tim Lincecum, Dan Haren, and Zack Greinke qualify. Those 14 just shouldn’t really elicit much debate, I don’t think. They’re franchise players by pretty much any definition.

Beyond those guys, though, there are some players who I could imagine will invoke some dissent. They all have a wart of some kind, making them great but not perfect. This group includes Derek Jeter, Dustin Pedroia, Prince Fielder, Kevin Youkilis, Carlos Beltran, Ichiro Suzuki, Josh Beckett, Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez, and Cliff Lee. I’d vote yes for all 11 of these guys, but there’s a nit to pick with each that could lead one to disagree.

We’re already up to 25 names that I’d be comfortable slapping the franchise player tag on. And there’s still another group that I think you could make a case for – the talented-with-a-sketchy-track-record crowd. These guys have shown franchise player abilities, but may not have sustained that ability over the last few years. This group would include Jose Reyes, Adrian Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Zimmerman, Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun, Justin Upton, Miguel Cabrera, Jon Lester, Javier Vazquez, Ubaldo Jimenez, Clayton Kershaw, and Johan Santana.

That’s 13 more guys that I could see making a case for. We’ve already listed 38 names without mentioning Holliday. There’s a lot of trimming to do to get down to Boras’ “less than 30” estimate. I think I’d probably end up around 32 or 33.

This, obviously, is not particularly objective. Reasonable people can disagree on pretty much everyone in the last two groups, meaning that your number could probably be anywhere from 15 to 40 without being too controversial. But I did find the exercise interesting, and my final count was quite a bit higher than I thought it would be. I suspected I’d end up in the 20 range, but there’s a really good crop of high end talent in the major leagues right now.

Oh, and as for Holliday, I think he fits in well with group two. I’d call him a franchise player too. This bit of propaganda from Boras is actually reasonable.

It’s the winter now, and for MLB fans and front offices alike that means speculation abounds on various roster shuffles and mix-ups. From now until April, we will be seeing endless fantastical roster constructions from every team from media sources ranging from blogs to the mainstream media to everybody’s new favorite hangout, Twitter. For many teams heading into the market, the question of who will lead off is one of great concern. Not every team has an Ichiro Suzuki or a Grady Sizemore to set the table. What kind of player should these other teams look for?

Here is a simple list of qualities that the ideal leadoff hitter possesses:

1. Productive hitter

That’s the easiest way to put it. It certainly is better, if you have two similarly talented (in terms of overall production) hitters, to leverage the leadoff spot with a player with a higher OBP. Still, what I think is often forgotten by managers (and GMs, to a certain extent), is that the leadoff hitter bats the most times through the order. To best leverage the spot, you want somebody that first of all is a productive hitter, and second of all is an on-base threat.

Does it really matter, though? As analysts and students of the game, this is the exact sort of thing we like to know. Delving deeper, from The Book we see the leadoff hitter receives roughly 4.80 PAs per game and the 5th hitter only receives 4.34. Over 150 games, that means that the leadoff hitter receives roughly 70 more plate appearances. Over these 70 plate appearances, the amount of runs gained by switching a player from the #5 spot to the #1 spot who is 20 points of wOBA better is roughly one run. This may be erased by properly leveraging an on-base threat at the top of the lineup, but it certainly will not end up being significant to the point of a win or likely not even half a win.

GMs entering the offseason looking for hitters need not concern themselves with what lineup slot they set their players in. Defensive alignment and batter handedness factor into lineup construction more than leveraging a player’s specific OBP or SLG skills. If your team needs a 3B and “needs” a leadoff hitter, it may seem that Chone Figgins and his .363 career OBP is a great fit and Adrian Beltre and his .325 career OBP doesn’t work at all, but it’s just not true. Beltre’s a great fielder and an average hitter, and Figgins is a great (but probably not as good) fielder and an average hitter, and that’s what matters.

As explained in the overview post, here, this is part of a series looking at the best and worst defensive performers over the past three combined seasons. Rankings are done by adding a player’s UZR with his aggregate positional adjustment so as to level the playing field with regards to difficulty. Essentially, it’s removing the grading curve.

Previously covered:
The Best
5th, Ryan Zimmerman 43.7 runs above average.
4th, Omar Vizquel 45.8 runs above average.
3rd, J.J. Hardy 48.7 runs above average.
2nd, Franklin Gutierrez 51.4 runs above average.
1st, Chase Utley 54.8 runs above average.

The Worst
5th, Jason Bay -64.9 runs to average.

Tonight, the fourth worst player from 2007-9: OF Ken Griffey Jr.

Griffey managed to get himself on this list despite spending nearly all of 2009 riding the bench or in the DH role; that is how bad he was in 2007 and 2008. His 37.1 runs below average in 2007 was, by far, the worst total in baseball that year — a whopping seven runs worst than the next competitor. 2008 was not as bad, though a small part of that was thanks to a reduction in defensive playing time, from 133 games in the field in 2007 to 123 in 2008. The Mariners in 2009 finally got it right by using him just 11 times in the field; though, of course, he still suffered from the DH penalty as far as positional adjustment goes.

On top of all the horrible fielding, Griffey’s bat hasn’t been up to the task of justifying his playing time since 2005. Since that season, he has accumulated 2,124 plate appearances with which he has brought back 0.3 wins above replacement in value. Unfortunately, his best offensive season, 2007, was paired with his worst defensive season, making him still barely above replacement level.

Having had his swan song return to Seattle this past season, and still dealing with numerous knee issues despite being a platooned DH, the overarching probability has to be that Griffey retires this off season. With time, the memories of how he ended his career defensively will fade and his reputation from the 1990s will be what lives on, warranted or not.

Long-time followers of my work know I’m a nut for moves that are largely irrelevant, such as all these off-season waiver claims. Rather than attempt to cover all of them, I’m going to try and touch on the more interesting ones. Whether anyone else is interested or not is beyond me, but here we go:

SEA claims RHP Yusmeiro Petit from ARZ
WAS claims LHP Doug Slaten from ARZ

Arizona loses some pitching depth, although neither figured to contribute much heading forward. Slaten is a typical lefty reliever and Petit is a back-of-the-rotation arm with lackluster stuff and statistics.

TB claims RHP Ramon A. Ramirez from CIN

Ramirez has split time between the pen and rotation over the last two years. His change-up seems a bit interesting, although that is drawn from small sample sizes in the Majors. Probably Triple-A bound, whether it’s the rotation or bullpen is to be seen.

TOR claims SS Mike McCoy from COL
TOR claims INF Jarrett Hoffpauir from STL

McCoy moves to his fourth org in four years. He’s a short (5’9”) utility man – pretty much the textbook Toronto infielder. He’ll be 29 not too deep into next season and has six career plate appearances at the Majors. Meanwhile Hoffpauir has hit well throughout his Triple-A career: over 1,100 plate appearances resulting in a .285/.362/.428 line. He’s 26 years old and got a cup of coffee last season for the Cardinals.

Worst case is ending up playing significant time in the majors. Best: both providing an extra padding of depth in the high minors.

BAL claims RHP Armando Gabino from MIN

Gabino actually started a game for the Twins last season. He found little success in his brief major league stint, but his minor league track record is generally decent. His fastball sits in the low-90s and he favored a slider over a change-up per our pitch data. His strikeout totals have never been too impressive either, but they have been consistent level-to-level.

As the off-season begins to warm up, we thought it would be helpful to provide you with a handy schedule of important dates to circle, and how they affect the timing of how the winter will play out.

November 9-11: GM Meetings

These are going on right now, which is why there are more rumors than usual going on. These are more procedural than substantive, as the GMs will also talk about instantly replay and other non-roster issues. You probably won’t see Roy Halladay traded tomorrow, for instance, but a few teams may leave Chicago with an understanding that they can make a run at him if they want to.

November 10-18: Various Awards Announced

You may care about these. I don’t.

November 18-19: Owners Meetings

Good ideas will be put forth and then tabled until future years. Nothing will happen, but you’ll have to read stories about that nothing that’s not happening.

November 20: Free Agency Begins

The exclusive negotiating window for teams to retain their own players ends, and players who have filed for free agency become eligible to sign with the Yankees.

November 20: 40-man Rosters Finalized

Teams must also finalize their 40 man rosters by this date in order to keep eligible prospects from being snatched up in the Rule 5 draft.

December 1: Arbitration Offer Deadline

It is the last day for teams to offer arbitration to their free agents. Any player who signs before this date is an automatic offer, granting the former team compensation for signing. As such, you won’t see too many contracts made official until after this date.

December 7-10: Winter Meetings

The annual gathering of front offices, media members, and job seekers for what usually turns out to be 72 hours of rumors and one hour of excitement. Expect Scott Boras to hold a bunch of ridiculous press conferences. Also, the Rule 5 draft takes place.

December 12: Contract Tender Deadline

For players eligible for arbitration (but not free agency), this is the last date to tender an offer and retain their contractual rights for 2010. Players who may receive an arbitration award greater than their value (I’m looking at you, Garrett Atkins) will be non-tendered and made free agents. This secondary pool of potentially available players may also serve to keep teams on the sideline in free agency, as the supply increases after several weeks.

January 5-15: Salary Aribtration Filing.

This is where Felix Hernandez will ask for the deed to the state of Washington in exchange for his services in 2010. The Mariners will counter by offering free dinner at the Space Needle. Arguing will ensue.