Archive for December, 2009

Rangers Swap Millwood For Ray

The Rangers managed to get themselves out of Kevin Millwood’s 12 million dollar contract on Wednesday, trading the starting pitcher along with 3 million dollars to the Baltimore Orioles for reliever Chris Ray and a PTBNL.

2009 was a banner year for Millwood, as his 3.67 ERA was his best mark since his last year of his original contract with Atlanta in 2002. However, as we often see, Millwood’s ERA didn’t showcase his true talent level. Millwood only struck out 5.5 batters per 9 innings, and he walked over 3. He simply wasn’t the type of dominant pitcher who should end the season with a sub-4.00 ERA. Only his .279 BABIP (vs. a career mark of .306) kept his ERA at such a low level. His sub-par peripherals resulted in a 4.80 FIP.

In 200 innings, the value of a 4.80 FIP comes out to 2.4 wins. So Millwood was a productive pitcher last year and he certainly can be a productive pitcher in the future. There aren’t very many 2.4 win players out there, and Millwood may be due for a better year, as his 2007 and 2008 years were better than his 2009. On the other hand, Millwood is aging, and it’s possible that he’s entered his decline phase and his innings may slip and his peripherals may fall farther.

Essentially, there are clearly better ways to spend 7-8 million dollars (roughly the difference between Ray’s salary and the 12 million cleared by Millwood’s departure). The Rangers signed Rich Harden to a 7.5 million dollar deal, and he has produced 3.9 wins or better 3 times. This is a great example of what a team can do with cleared salary, and so this trade is already paying dividends for Texas.

The return of Chris Ray is negligible. He is arbitration eligible, but due to his 7.27 ERA, he will likely see a similar contract to the 0.85M he received, if not lower, if he is even tendered a contract. He missed all of 2008, and has only thrown more than 45 innings in a season once. Ray has never shown the ability to either limit walks or home runs enough to become a truly productive pitcher. He will be a reclamation project for Mike Maddux at best, and probably will not be a factor.

For the Orioles, they receive a roughly average starting pitcher. As a one year commitment, 9 million dollars isn’t egregious. It will be probably be near his market value. With the Orioles not in a position to compete, taking on that kind of salary doesn’t really make sense. This kind of money could be much better spent on international signings, draft picks, or other developmental type of projects. He will give them decent production, but is the marginal value of his 2-3 wins above replacement really worth 9 million dollars to them? I’m not sure.


LaTroy Hawkins a Brewer

Gads. The Brewers went on a bit of a spending bender on pitchers today, signing Randy Wolf and now LaTroy Hawkins to a $7.5 million deal. The Brewers are penciling him in to set up their ancient-yet-effective closer Trevor Hoffman. It’s probably not a terrible idea to have a fallback option should age finally catch up Hoffman, although Hawkins is 37-years old himself.

Stuff-wise, Hawkins has evolved into a bit of a different animal since his glory days as a Minnesota Twin. He used rely on the strength of his fastball almost exclusively. Since becoming a vagabond reliever, he’s become more reliant on a couple of breaking pitches; a hard slider and a curveball. At 37 years young, Hawkins can still bring the heat, averaging 94 on his fastball last season.

I’m thinking Doug Melvin came away a little too impressed with some of his baseball card numbers last year: 11 saves, 19 holds and 2.13 ERA in 65 appearances. Hawkins’ 2.13 ERA can largely be credited to a 90% strand rate. Despite a solid arsenal of pitches, Hawkins has a middling strikeout rate for a reliever at 6.4 K/9. He also has experienced some on-again/off-again bouts with gopheritis; last season his HR/FB rate was 12%. Combine a 25% line-drive rate and Hawkins gave up his fair share of hard contact last season. One of his saving graces he does a solid job at giving up free passes.

Take away the veneer of a shiny ERA and you have a 3.97 FIP and a oogly 5.25 tRA. His xFIPs for the previous two seasons are 4.10 and 3.97. Hawkins is more of a “proven commodity” than some of the other available free agent relievers out there, but there are cheaper and probably more effective ways of cobbling together a bullpen than this.

I wonder what sort of money Kiko Calero will get. And is anyone else fascinated with Winston Abreu’s MLE besides me?


Harden the Ranger

On a free agent market lacking elite reliable arms, Rich Harden stood out as perhaps the most intriguing of the never-well collection. Today, the Texas Rangers signed the 28-year-old to a one-year deal worth $7.5M along with a $11.5M club option for next season according to Craig Calcaterra.

This isn’t the Rangers first run-in with an injured pitcher, as they were reportedly infatuated with Ben Sheets throughout last off-season and this season. Unlike Sheet, Harden actually pitched last season, and pitched moderately well. A FIP of 4.35 is worse than we’ve come to expect from 6’1” righty with an average fastball velocity just north of 92 MPH, but he still induced many an empty swing. Harden’s 67.3% contact rate ranked tops amongst all starting pitchers with at least 140 innings. In fact, over the last three seasons, Harden is the only starter below 70%.

Harden’s xFIP has ranged from 3.5 to 3.9 each of the past four seasons. He’s morphed into more of a fly ball pitcher lately – allowing 40% or more fly balls each of the past three seasons – which isn’t what you want from a guy heading into Arlington, but it is what it is. A move to the American League is going to hurt his numbers a bit as well. Still, Harden is pretty familiar with the American League West and its inhabitants, having pitched with Oakland for the majority of his career.

The money itself is similar to the deal Brad Penny just received from St. Louis. When healthy, Harden is the superior talent. The problem with Harden has never been talent though, but the nastiest six-letter word in the baseball dictionary when it comes to pitchers: health. There’s a good chance he throws something like 140 innings and produces 3+ WAR. There’s also a good chance he gets hurt in May and misses most of the year with an injury, as he has two of the past four seasons.

Risky indeed. However, if Harden can do the unthinkable and stay healthy, Texas just made the AL West race a lot more interesting.


Wolf Signs with Milwaukee

Wolf-related title pun avoided. The Brewers signed 33-year old Randy Wolf to a three-year deal worth $29.75 million.  In my trollings of the interwebs, more than once I’ve heard this signing compared to the brutal Jeff Suppan contract. While this deal isn’t all that inspiring, Randy Wolf is no Jeff Suppan.

This is Suppan’s three seasons before signing with Milwaukee:

188 innings, 4.77 FIP, 1.3 wins above replacement
194.1 innings, 4.53 FIP, 1.5 WAR
190 innings, 4.70 FIP, 1.6 WAR

And here is Randy Wolf’s past three seasons:

102.2 innings, 3.99 FIP, 1.7 WAR
190.1 innings, 3.97 FIP, 2 WAR
214.1 innings, 3.96 FIP, 3 WAR

18 starts that Randy Wolf made in 2007 were worth more than any full season Jeff Suppan ever had with the Cardinals. I guess the comparison comes from the fact that like Suppan, Wolf allows more contact than your average pitcher. Both pitchers’ ERAs are influenced by random variations of BABIP and HR/FB rates. Unlike Suppan – whose repertoire consists of junk and a prayer – Wolf has a couple of major league-caliber pitchers to frustrate hitters with. Wolf’s fastball doesn’t light up radar guns, coming in at an average velocity of 89 MPH, but it was good for 29 runs above average last season. His slow, 67 MPH curveball was spinning for a solid 9 runs above average.

While staying in the National League is good for Wolf, he will find that his new digs are less than friendly than what they were at Chavez Ravine. Dodger Stadium has a four-year HR/FB park factor of 95. Miller Park’s is 106. Wolf could get away with some of his fly-balling ways in L.A., but not so much with the Brew Crew.

Having thrown 400 innings over the past two seasons, the Brewers feel confident that Wolf is fully healthy. He is not your typical #2 starter, but he’ll slot between Yovani Gallardo and the dregs that is the rest of Milwaukee’s rotation. Wolf projects to be a little better than a 2-win pitcher next year, so the Brewers are paying the normal rate for the first year of the average value of the contract. Beyond that, they could be disappointed, but probably nowhere near on a Suppan-ian level.


Curtis Granderson Hitting in the Bronx

The keystone of yesterday’s big trade is the Yankees’s new centerfielder. As Dave Cameron noted Curtis Granderson is an all-star level player: under 30, an above average hitter and an above average fielder at a premium defensive position.

Granderson is a legitimate power threat, a big part of his offensive game. He has a career ISO of .211, and in 2009 busted out with a career high 30 HRs. One reason for the additional HRs was his career low 29.5% GB/BIP second lowest in the game. His power, unlike Joe Mauer’s, is fairly standard pull power.
grand_hr_1209
Comerica Park is a pitcher’s park and Granderson has generally had a better ISO away than home. At Yankee Stadium, which might be the best place for lefty pull-power hitters, this should change. Here is the HR/BIA rate by angle of the ball in play for LHBs in Yankee Stadium versus Comerica Park.
hr_nyadet_1209
Right field, where Granderson hits most of his HRs, at Yankee Stadium has a much higher HR rate than right at Comerica Park. So, Granderson should see a boost to his already solid power in New York. The Yankees got not only a all-star-level player, but one well suited to their park.


Chicago Cubs: Draft Review

General Manager: Jim Hendry
Farm Director: Oneri Fleita
Scouting Director: Tim Wilken

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-draft signees ($200,000 or more)

2009 1st Round: Brett Jackson, OF, U of California
2. D.J. LeMahieu, 2B, Louisiana State
3. Austin Kirk, LHP, Oklahoma HS
6x – Brooks Raley, LHP, Texas A&M

Jackson was a bit of a surprise pick where the Cubs selected him, but the early results have been promising. The outfielder flew through three levels in his debut and ended the year in low-A ball where he hit .295/.382/.545 in 112 at-bats. If Jackson continues to hit with power (.250 ISO) and speed (11 steals in 12 attempts, 30 runs scored in 26 games), the organization could have a real steal here. However, his walk rate did diminish with each promotion, and his strikeout rate was quite high (28.6% in low-A). Still, you can’t sneeze at a .436 wOBA.

The shortstop had a solid debut in low-A ball. He hit .316/.371/.368, thanks to a solid .369 BABIP. LeMathieu also kept his strikeouts in check at 14.5% and his walk rate was a reasonable 7.3%. On the down side, he showed little power (.053 ISO) and he didn’t run much, either (two steals in four tries). Despite the lack of power, he managed to drive in 30 runs in just 38 games.

The first high-schooler taken, Kirk pitched just 13.2 innings, but he got a taste of both rookie and short-season ball. The young southpaw showed some rough spots, especially with his command and control, which should not be unexpected in young pitchers. A college left-hander, Raley also pitched just a few innings after being signed to an over-draft deal. He should open 2010 in low-A ball.

2008 1st Round: Andrew Cashner, RHP, Texas Christian
1S. Ryan Flaherty, SS, Vanderbilt
2. Aaron Shafer, RHP, Wichita State
3. Chris Carpenter, RHP, Kent State
4x – Matt Cerda, SS, California HS
21x – Logan Watkins, SS, Kansas HS

The organization added some real depth with this draft and first-rounder Cashner jumped to the top of the club’s Top 10 prospects list after showing he can certainly stick in the starting rotation. He reached double-A in his first full pro season. Flaherty also joins Cashner on that list (due up on the site tomorrow) and he could be the second baseman (or even third baseman) of the future with Starlin Castro earmarked for shortstop. Carpenter is another promising pick from the draft. The right-hander has a big arm, but he has also had some pretty serious injuries so the catchphrase to be used here is “cautiously optimistic.”

Second-round pick Shafer has a nice pitcher’s frame, but he’s been slower to develop and spent all of ’09 in low-A ball. He displayed good control (2.40 BB/9) but posted a strikeout rate of just 6.27 and allowed too many hits: 122 in 116.1 innings, despite a modest BABIP at .304. He needs to miss more bats, or Shafer is headed to the bullpen. Cerda had a promising debut in low-A ball, but he appeared in just seven games in ’09 thanks to injuries. If he can get back on the field, the catcher shows a keen eye at the plate for his age.

Just 20, Watkins has hit .326 in his short career, spanning two half seasons (one in rookie ball, one in short-season ball). The middle infielder enjoyed his time at the plate in ’09 and hit .326/.389/.391 in 279 at-bats. He needs to work on his base running a bit after getting caught seven times in 21 attempts. Watkins could also stand to be more patient at the plate after posting a walk rate of just 8.8%. He has little-to-no-power after posting an ISO of .065.

Right-hander Jay Jackson was a steal in the ninth round.

2007 1st Round: Josh Vitters, 3B, California HS
1S. Josh Donaldson, C, Auburn (Traded to OAK)
2. None
3. Tony Thomas, 2B, Florida State
12x – Ryan Acosta, RHP/SS, Florida HS
14x – James Russell, LHP, Texas

Despite some clear rough spots in his game, Vitters is still one of the top prospects in the system. Donaldson also showed some potential before he was flipped in the ’08 Rich Harden trade with the Oakland Athletics. Thomas, an offensive-minded second baseman, has seen his offensive numbers slip as he ascends through the system. His power has also diminished, as has his base running skills and he was successful in just 50% of his 26 attempts in ’09 at double-A.

Acosta was unceremoniously released by the club after the ’08 season. Russell hasn’t really lived up to his over-draft signing, either, but he made it to triple-A in ’09 and has been serving as a swing man. He made 12 starts in ’09 (between double-A and triple-A), as well as 25 relief appearances. Russell has a chance to be a useful arm in the Majors, but he’s not likely to be an impact pitcher.

Infielder Darwin Barney (fourth round) and outfielder Brandon Guyer (fifth round) could also end up being useful players.

2006 1st Round: Tyler Colvin, OF, Clemson
2. None
3. None
5x – Jeff Samardzija, RHP, Notre Dame
11x – Chris Huseby, RHP, Florida HS
14x – Drew Rundle, OF, Oregon HS

Until ’09, Colvin looked like a complete bust. He began this past season in high-A, after spending the previous two seasons in double-A. He did not hit overly well but found himself back in double-A where his bat woke up and he managed a triple-slash line of .300/.334/.524 in 307 at-bats. Colvin still doesn’t like walking, but he’s shown improved patience since the ’07 debacle (3.0% walk rate). His ISO of .225 in ’09 was encouraging but he stole just eight bases, which is disappointing. Colvin got a taste of the Majors in ’09 (six games) but it still looks like he’s a platoon or fourth outfielder.

Samardzija’s rookie eligibility has expired but he has yet to develop into the impact arm that the Cubs had hoped for. He still has a powerful fastball, but he’s been painfully inconsistent, for which the Cubs must take partial blame. The former college football star has shuttled from the starting rotation to the bullpen and back, on multiple occasions. He needs to stick in one role in 2010.

Huseby has been a source of frustration for the organization, as a highly-promising but inconsistent over-draft pick out of high school. Moved to the bullpen full-time in ’09, he flourished with a walk rate of just 1.67 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 12.17 K/9 (7.30 K/BB rate in low-A). He could be a fast-mover in 2010 if those rates keep up. Rundle has yet to show the ability to hit professional pitching, outside of a 53-game stint in short-season ball in ’08.

Blake Parker (16th round) reached triple-A in ’09 and posted solid numbers out of the bullpen. The right-hander is a converted college catcher. He just needs to sharpen his command/control.

Up Next: The Chicago Cubs Top 10 Prospects


Fan Projection Targets: 12/9/2009

Today’s targets are Ian Kennedy, Ivan Rodriguez, and Joakim Soria.

Kennedy was part of the blockbuster deal yesterday, and finds himself a new home in Arizona.

Rodriguez signed with the Washington Nationals as part-player, part-mentor.

Meanwhile, tomorrow is the annual Rule 5 draft, and Soria is probably the most recent shining example of a raw pitcher being taken and becoming something ridiculous.


Pettitte Ends Drama-Filled Free Agency Experience

Yesterday the Yankees added their left-handed centerfield savant in the form of Curtis Granderson. Their newest admission to the majestic pinstripes is a returning member: southpaw Andy Pettitte as Joel Sherman is reporting the sides have agreed upon a one-year deal worth $11.75M.

Most people may have not even realized that Pettitte was a free agent since he seemed fairly content to simply remaining a Yankee. He will turn 38 next summer but the guy can still pitch. Last season Pettitte held an xFIP of 4.38 and in the previous two seasons of 3.73 and 4.35. Each of those is coming in the American League East as well, so he’s not exactly plastering road kill to the mount above his mantle as much as going toe-to-toe with a bunch of lions and bears.

Compare that to a similar free agent, Randy Wolf, who is roughly four years younger and looking at a potential three-year deal, and it seems odd that Pettitte cared not to shop himself around, even to cross-town rival Mets, since he ostensibly enjoys the New York lifestyle. Against weaker competition Wolf has posted xFIP of 4.17, 4.29, and 4.36 and he’s on the verge of a multiple year deal.

Of course, maybe it has to do with the fact the Yankees gave him nearly $12M which few other teams could or would have. The Fans project Pettitte to be worth nearly 3 WAR next season. Pettitte has always been someone paid fewer dollars than his performances have called for. Since 2002 he’s earned roughly $118M in free agent dollars, but only paid around $83M. Over the past few seasons he’s consistently been around a 3.5-4 win pitcher, and while you have to take age into account, this is the Yankees and this deal doesn’t seem too far-fetched.


Is The Market Changing?

Yet another year where Major League Baseball seduces its fan base with promises of an action packed winter meetings, only to produce nothing of interest for fans of 25 teams so far. After seeing how many bargains have been found late in the winter, many General Mangers are now content to let the market develop. The popularity of this strategy has led to an interminably long wait for deals to be struck.

I wonder, though, whether the late bargain market will actually develop this year. We’ve had about 10 free agent signings so far, and the price so far has come in around $3 million per win, significantly reduced from prior years. Essentially, the only players who have signed have been ones willing to take a discount. We’ve seen something of a reverse bidding war, where teams are telling players that they’ll sign the first guy from among a group of similar free agents to take a specific deal. Rather than teams competing over players, now players are fighting for roster spots, and it’s driven prices down.

However, I’m skeptical that this trend will last. It may be tempting to look at the signings so far and claim that teams are cutting back on spending, but I’d bet that we’re just seeing a selection bias. The guys who have signed so far are not a representative sample of the free agent population – they are mostly aging players on the decline, more interested in finding a landing spot than cashing in. These are the types of players who were waiting for contracts in February, and they have reacted by taking deals early and solidifying their place on a team.

To me, it looks like the free agent market has flipped. The guys willing to take a discount are signing early, while the guys who want to be paid are going to drag this process out through the winter. MLB’s revenues weren’t down that much in 2009 to where the numbers support a big pullback on spending this winter. There are teams with money to spend who just haven’t opened the wallets yet. When they do, I’d bet we’ll start to see some deals back over $4 million per win.

The late market might not be so full of bargains this year. The expectation of the market developing as it did last year may have changed the dynamics of how this thing plays out.


Low-Hanging Fruit: Ryan Church

After Frank Wren went on his used-to-be great closer binge, Rafael Soriano threw a big fat monkey wrench in the Braves’ plans by accepting salary arbitration. Ryan Church is now the scapegoat, as the Braves designated him assignment to make room for Soriano on the 40-man roster.

Ryan Church doesn’t really deserve this, as he’s not a bad ballplayer. Church is your Joe Average outfielder, and I don’t mean that as a knock. The average player, or a player that is good for around two wins is worth about $8-9 million on the free agent market. That’s Ryan Church, at least when he has been able to stay on the field. Church’s trouble is that he has either been blocked by other players or hurt, problems that are no real fault of his own. He suffered through concussions in 2008 and a bad back in 2009.

Assuming he’s healthy, you can bank on Church getting on base at a .340 clip, hit for some moderate power and play excellent defense in the corners. With an unusual paucity for corner outfielders in this free agent market outside of Matt Holliday and a couple of overrated and soon to be overpaid players such as Jason Bay and Johnny Damon, Church could be a decent patch job for a club, and is at worst a first-rate 4th outfielder, all at the price of virtually nothing.

The irony is that Church and Soriano are probably more valuable to the Braves than Wagner and Takashi Saito. It’s not the end of the world for Atlanta; Wren could easily redeem himself with a nice package of prospects for Soriano, but so far this has been one poorly managed start to an offseason for the Braves’ front office.

How do you think Ryan Church will do in 2010? Enter your projection for him here.