Allow me to introduce myself. My name is Patrick Newman, and this is my first post here at FanGraphs. Some of you may be familiar with my blog, npbtracker.com. If you haven’t seen it before, I write about Japanese baseball, covering current events and analyzing top players. Starting today, I’ll be doing the same here on a semi-weekly basis.

Every year, players move back and forth between the top leagues in Japan and North America. So let’s kick things off by looking at a few of the guys looking to change leagues this offseason.

Imports

This year’s NPB free agent class is the weakest we’ve seen in quite some time, but there are some interesting arms making the MLB leap this offseason.

The head of the class

• Ryota Igarashi (signed with the Mets)
• Colby Lewis (destination unknown)

Igarashi and Lewis make for an interesting contrast — Igarashi is a power reliever with middling control; Lewis, though no slouch on velocity, is a starter who’s shown pinpoint command in his two NPB seasons. I’ve casually observed that raw velocity usually survives the journey across the Pacific, while control typically suffers.

Will Igarashi’s command degrade at the MLB level, and if so will it hurt his effectiveness? And was Lewis’s dominant K:BB performance a function of pitching in Japan, or an improvement he made?

The other candidate

• Hisanori Takahashi (destination unknown)

Takahashi is the only other MLB-caliber player out of Japan seeking MLB employment at this point (we may see someone posted later in the offseaon). Takahashi is a lefthanded garbage baller with good sinker/screwball, but a sub-par fastball.

Exports

Over the course of a typical season, the 12 NPB teams will employ a cumulative 70-80 “foreign” players. Note that “foreign” is in quotes because it’s NPB’s own definition of the word. Tuffy Rhodes, for example, is no longer considered a foreign player because he’s accumulated enough NPB service time to qualify as Japanese player under NPB’s rules. JapaneseBaseball.com has a rundown of the rules governing foreign NPB players.

Back to the point, most foreign players in Japan only stay for a year or two, so there’s a high degree of roster churn each offseason, opening up opportunities for a new group of players.

In most cases, Japanese teams prefer “hungry” types, guys with years of AAA success who haven’t gotten extended MLB looks and still have something to prove. This isn’t an exhaustive list, but here’s a look at a couple of the more interesting players making that leap this year.

Contact-hitting outfielders

• Matt Murton (bound for Hanshin Tigers)
• Jeff Fiorentino (Hiroshima Carp)

Though Murton has significantly more MLB experience, these two outfielders head to Japan with the same minor league profile: good contact skills, good strikezone judgement, gap power. Their 2009 Triple-A slash lines are virtually identical at .324/.389/.499 (Murton) and .312/.387.510 (Fiorentino).

Despite their similarities, the two are going to very different environments. Murton joins the Hanshin Tigers, a team whose last two American outfielders (Kevin Mench and Lew Ford) were miserable busts, and with a demanding, yet supportive fanbase that expects to win. Fiorentino will find himself in a different situation in Hiroshima, a team with an air of optimism in a beautiful new stadium, but one that has not been in contention this decade.

Hard-throwing, wild relievers

• Juan Morillo (Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles)
• Chris Bootcheck (Yokohama BayStars)
• Eulogio de la Cruz (Tokyo Yakult Swallows)

Perhaps due to the success of Marc Kroon, pitchers with plus velocity but control issues that have kept them off MLB rosters have become a popular target for NPB teams. All three of the guys listed can run their fastballs into the mid-90s and Morillo tops out in triple digits. 2010 will tell whether any of these guys becomes another Kroon, or flames out like similar hard-throwers Chris Resop and Scott Dohmann.

General Manager: Brian Cashman
Farm Director: Pat Roessler
Scouting Director: Damon Oppenheimer

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-draft signees ($200,000 or more)

2009 1st Round: Slade Heathcott, OF, Texas HS
2. J.R. Murphy, C, Florida HS
3. None
5x – Caleb Cotham, RHP, Vanderbilt
12x – Brett Gerritse, RHP, California HS
14x – Graham Stoneburner, RHP, Clemson
16x – Bryan Mitchell, RHP, North Carolina
44x – Evan DeLuca, LHP, New Jersey HS

Unfazed by make-up questions surrounding Heathcott, the organization nabbed him based on his offensive potential. He appeared in just three games after signing. Murphy appeared in nine games but got off to a fast start and hit .333. Cotham made three appearances after signing. Gerritse had an impressive debut in six games in rookie ball. Stoneburner pitched just one inning after coming to terms. Mitchell and DeLuca did not pitch in ’09 after signing. In other words, we’re really going to have to wait until 2010 to see how this draft class is looking… although starting pitchers Adam Warren (4th round) and Sean Black (7th) got off to stellar starts in low-A with FIPs of 2.19 and 2.96, respectively.

2008 1st Round: Gerrit Cole, RHP, California HS (Did not sign)
1S. Jeremy Bleich, LHP, Stanford
2. Scott Bittle, RHP, Mississippi (Did not sign)
3. David Adams, 2B, Virginia
6x – Brett Marshall, RHP, Texas HS
7x – Kyle Higashioka, C, California HS
9x – Michael O’Brien, RHP, Virginia HS
10x – D.J. Mitchell, RHP, Clemson
15x – Matt Richardson, RHP, Florida HS
27x – Garrison Lassiter, SS, North Carolina HS

This was not a pretty draft for the organization, and losing its first and second round picks really hurt. Bleich has some potential but the ceiling is lower than what you’d want from a supplemental first round pick. Adams has flashed a nice stick. He split ’09 between low-A and high-A and his power really came on in the second half of the year when his ISO rose from .104 to .216. That huge increase, though, could have been a fluke but we’ll know more in 2010.

Marshall was one of my favorite picks from this draft but he had a bit of a rough ’09 season in low-A ball. He allowed 98 hits in 87.1 innings and his strikeout rate was low at just 6.18 K/9. His walk rate, though, was OK at 3.81 BB/9, based on his experience level and his FIP of 4.45 was much better than his ERA of 5.56. Keep an eye on Higashioka in 2010. He tends to get lost on the catching depth chart in the organization, but he has flashed some potential. Higashioka has a nice rates at the plate (10.7 BB%, 14.3 K%). His overall numbers have been plagued by low BABIPs (.288 in ’09), which tend to haunt slow-footed catchers.

Speaking of crazy ERA/FIP differences… check out O’Brien, who has some really bad luck when the ball goes into play. His ERA was 5.09 at rookie ball in ’09 but his FIP was just 2.29. He showed solid control for a 19 year old at 1.76 BB/9 and a good strikeout rate at 8.61 K/9. He’s not overpowering, though, and his 39.7% ground-ball rate is a little worrisome. A former two-way college player, Mitchell is still raw on the mound. Despite his inexperience, Mitchell posted an impressive ground-ball rate at 62% and allowed just two homers. Many project him as a future reliever, but he showed good durability in ’09 with 150 innings pitched. His lefty/righty batting-average splits show some need for improvement: .287/.203.

Richardson is still quite raw and spent time the ’09 season in extended spring training and short-season ball. Lassiter is also raw and he spent much of the year in low-A ball. Pat Venditte (20th round) has the potential to make the Majors as a middle reliever who can throw both right- and left-handed. The club also drafted Chris Dwyer (36th round) but he went to Clemson University and was signed by the Royals in the fourth round for $1.45 million as a rare draft-eligible college freshman.

2007 1st Round: Andrew Brackman, RHP, North Carolina State
2. Austin Romine, C, California HS
3. Ryan Pope, RHP, Savannah College of Art/Design
4x – Brad Suttle, 3B, Texas
6x – Richard ‘Chase’ Weems, Georgia HS
8x – Taylor Grote, OF, Texas HS
10x – Carmen Angelini, Louisiana HS

What to make of Brackman? Well… it’s been said many times and really nothing has changed: He’s a huge talent, but a massive question mark due to healthy and overall rawness on the mound. The Yankees organization, though, has the money and the depth to be patient.

Romine is one of my personal favorite prospects in the system. Defensively, he’s solid and there is no question that he can remain behind the dish. I also think his bat will play as a regular backstop. He’s on the Top 10, which we’ll see tomorrow.

Pope = good control but modest stuff. He reached double-A in ’09 and allowed 155 hits in 141.1 innings or work. His walk rate was solid at 2.17 BB/9 but he didn’t miss many bats with a strikeout rate at 6.75 K/9. His FIP over the past two seasons has been much better than his ERA; In ’09 his FIP was 3.24, compared to his ERA at 4.78. It’s a little disconcerting that his ground-ball rate keeps dropping as he rises through the minors and it bottomed out at 39.9% this past season. He’s likely a middle reliever in the Majors.

Suttle missed the entire ’09 after shoulder surgery (his second his being drafted) and it remains to be seen what affect that will have on his play in the field. Weems was another nice pick but he was flipped to Cincinnati in another trade. The Yankees club still has perhaps the most impressive catching depth in the Majors. Weems needs to cut down on his whiff rate (+30% in his career). Grote has yet to hit above .240 and his career strikeout rate is also above 30%, which is not good for a player that has yet to post an ISO rate above .100. Angelini did not get his batting average above .200 this past season. It was a bad year for over-slot deals.

Infielder Brandon Laird (27th round) has shown some potential. Even if he makes the Majors as a bench player, he would still represent great value as a late-round pick. Chris Carpenter would have been a great signing in the 18th round. He went to the Cubs in the third round of the ’08 draft. The club also drafted right-handed reliever Drew Storen (34th round), who went 10th overall to the Nationals in ’09. Outfielder Eric Thames (39th round) went to the Jays in ’08 and has flashed hitting skills to put himself in the Top 10, if not for injury woes.

2006 1st Round: Ian Kennedy, RHP, Southern California
1S. Joba Chamberlain, RHP, Nebraska
2. None
3. Zach McAllister, RHP, Illinois HS
4x – Colin Curtis, OF, Arizona State
8x – Dellin Betances, RHP, New York HS
9x – Mark Melancon, RHP, Arizona
17x – David Robertson, RHP, Alabama

A lot of people questioned New York’s decision to give Kennedy big money, as he appears to have peaked in high school. However, general manager Brian Cashman did a nice job of using him as trading chip by flipping him to the Arizona Diamondbacks – along with outfielder Austin Jackson heading to the Tigers – for Curtis Granderson (perhaps my favorite deal of the off-season, so far). Kennedy’s stuff was a little short for the power American League East, but he could very well thrive in the National League… and the deal could end up working out better for all three teams than many think. Cashman is a smart deal-maker, when he gets the opportunity.

The club made up for the Kennedy signing (not that it was a huge blunder) by nabbing Chamberlain in the supplemental round. A lot of teams passed on the big right-hander because of his injury history as an amateur, and that has continued to haunt him in the pros, too, but he’s also shown flashes of brilliance. With that said, 2010 should be a big season for him as the club should decide once and for all where he belongs: the starting rotation or the bullpen. Betances could have received consideration for the Top 10 if he had not required Tommy John surgery.

McAllister was a nice third-round choice and we’ll see him tomorrow on the Top 10 list, along with right-handed reliever Melancon. Robertson, another right-hander reliever, is technically is no longer eligible as a “rookie” due to service time, despite the face he has yet to exceed the 50 IP mark at the MLB level. The club really improved its pitching depth with this draft. Curtis split the ’09 season between double-A and triple-A and his numbers were so-so, mainly based on a low BABIP at the triple-A level. Don’t be surprised if he becomes a useful fourth or fifth outfielder at the MLB level.

George Kontos (5th round) has shown flashes of potential. Daniel McCutchen (13th round) was used as trading chip in the ’08 Xavier Nady/Damaso Marte trade with Pittsburgh.

Up Next: The New York Yankees Top 10 Prospects

We’ve seen some really good moves and some really bad moves this winter, but by and large, every move has at least been fairly easy to understand. Even the Brandon Lyon contract isn’t confusing – Ed Wade overvalues middle relievers and got fooled into thinking Lyon is good by his low ERA. It’s a terrible contract, but it’s pretty easy to see what happened.

Now, though, we have our first head-scratcher of the winter. The A’s are reportedly on the verge of signing Coco Crisp to a one year, $5 million deal. Now, Crisp is a decent player – he’s racked up +15.7 WAR in 832 career games, averaging about 2.7 WAR per 600 plate appearances. He’s a very good defensive outfielder and has been about a league average hitter for most of his career. That’s a good combination.

Overall, the whole package is worth about +1.5 to +2 wins over a full season. For $5 million, the A’s are seemingly getting a pretty good value relative to market rates in previous years. And, there’s not much risk, given the short term nature of the deal.

So, why doesn’t this signing make sense? Because the A’s already have two copies of this exact player type, and no shortage of outfielders looking for at-bats. Let’s start with the Crisp clones, Rajai Davis and Ryan Sweeney.

UZR loved both last year, giving Davis a +11.9 rating in about 2/3 of a season in center field, while Sweeney got a +15.5 in half a season of right field and another +6.8 in 1/3 of a season in center field. They’re both terrific defenders in the outfield, even if they aren’t as good as their 2009 numbers imply. And they are both essentially close to league average offensive players.

They offer the same skills that Crisp does, only for a fraction of the cost. Adding him to the group gives the A’s three outfielders with the same basic skill set. It is possible, I guess, that this group will be the starting outfield for Oakland in 2010, and they’ll attempt to put the best outfield defenders in baseball behind their pitching staff. But if that is the plan, what do they do with Scott Hairston, Aaron Cunningham, Travis Buck, and the newly acquired Michael Taylor?

Hairston, after all, wasn’t free – they just traded several prospects to get him over the summer, and while he wasn’t very good after the trade, the A’s are supposed to be an organization that doesn’t react to small sample sizes. It seems like a waste of resources to pay the price they paid to get him if he’s only going to serve as the right-hand portion of an outfield platoon.

You could make a pretty good case that Buck, Cunningham and Taylor could use more time in Triple-A, but they’re all close to major league ready. Do they need a full year in the minors? Probably not. But the Crisp acquisition makes it nearly impossible for any of them to start the year in Oakland, and barring multiple trades, they’ll likely be spending most of the year in Sacramento.

It seems like a trade of either Davis or Sweeney must be in the making. But then, there’s the issue of what you’ll get for this player type, as the entire reason you got Crisp for a decent salary is that the market doesn’t value these guys high enough. If the team that may be trading for either of the two defensive specialists was in the market for that kind of player, why didn’t they just sign Crisp themselves?

It’s just weird. Perhaps Billy Beane has a master plan that has yet to be fully revealed, but at this point in time, this signing is a head scratcher.

In the snarky corners of the baseball blogosphere, regions of which I am occasionally (ahem) guilty of inhabiting, nothing says “gift that keeps on giving” like a terrible contract. That’s why the news that Gary Matthews, Jr. is available (the Angels are apparently emboldened by the Dodgers’ trade of fellow 2006-07 crazy-contract recipient Juan Pierre) brought such a smile to my face. I can hear the boardroom conversations now:

Really? The Angels are willing to listen to suitors for “Little Sarge?” The Gary Matthews, Jr.? Hey, before we call, we should call the Blue Jays about Vernon Wells! I wonder if Dayton will finally talk about Jose Guillen? With those three guys, we’ll totally make the 2006 playoffs! Seriously, Gary Freaking Matthews? Hold my calls, Marty, I gotta ring up Reagins ASAP before Jack Z. gets to him!

Snark aside, it’s easy to criticize a bad contract after the fact, but it’s worth looking back into the situation in which it was originally signed. Hence my award-winning Contract Retrospectives (that no one read), an occasional series that I hope to revive. By trying to reconstruct whether or not the team doing the signing had a good “process” at the time or not, perhaps we can also learn what sort of mistakes they did (or didn’t) make.

Matthews signed with the Angels during the 2006-2007 offseason for five years and $50 million to much derision, with many attributing the contract to a memorable catch by then-Ranger Matthews. In terms of Wins Above Replacement, what were the Angels paying for? Back then, a win above replacement was going for about four million dollars on the open market, with about ten percent inflation each season. Assuming a generic half-win-a-year decline curve, a five-year, $50 million contract implies that Matthews would be 3-3.5 WAR in his first season, let’s call it 3.3 WAR. Was that totally unreasonable of the Angels? For this kind of retropective projection (or “retrojection”) I try to stick with the simplest sort of projection possible, using weighting, regression, and slight adjustments of basic stats.

Offensively, from 2003-06, Matthews had wOBAs of .298, .347, .329, and .367 respectively. That “retrojects” to .338 for 2007, about 3.6 runs above average per 700 plate appearances (assuming 2006’s run environment). Defensively, Matthews was good, with +6.6, +21.3, +18.7, and +1 UZR/150s in the outfield. Regressing and adjusting, he retrojects as a +5 position-neutral defender. (+3.6 offense + 5 fielding + 25 AL replacement level) times 85% playing time = about a 2.8 WAR player.

Yes, the Angels overpaid, but it may be surprising to some that they “only” overpaid by half-a-win per season. Given that my deliberately crude projections don’t take parks into account offensively, 2.8 may be a bit high given the Rangers’ bandbox. Still, given Matthews’ WAR performances from 2007 through 2009 (0.5, -0.8, -0.8), this may seem wildly optimistic, but that’s exactly the kind of unfair 20/20 hindsight I’m trying to avoid. Look at Matthews’ WAR totals from 2004-2006: 2.1 (in limited playing time), 3.2, and 4.2. It was a poor contract, but not as crazy as it now appears. Given his performances from 2004-2006, one certainly would not have predicted (at least from statistics alone) that Matthews would become a replacement-level scrub almost immediately.

The longer a contract is, the more a half-win mistake can burn a team, by making a bad contract that much more unmovable, especially a longer contract (hence the “discount” teams should try and get on longer contracts in particular). It can burn a team so badly that they’ll make even a stud like Gary Matthews Jr. available to the highest bidder. Brian, Ned, Omar, Dayton, Jim, Ed… anyone?

In 1999, Sammy Sosa recorded 416 outfield chances, which were the second most in the National League. Sosa’s placement is not significant because of the fact that he is a right fielder, although he was the lone comer outfielder in the top six, and its significance is not because of his reputation as a horrid defender. In fact, the real significance has little to do with Sosa and more to do with his 416 chances. First place that year was a 22-year-old centerfielder by the name of Andruw Jones, who wound up with 101 more chances than Sosa.

Jones gained a ball hog label (as discussed in passing throughout this thread) that was evidently just. Although, if it helps him any, the second most in the majors was another 22-year-old centerfielder by the name of Carlos Beltran, who finished with 422 chances. Flash forward to 2009 and not a single outfielder finished with more than 500 chances and only one finished with more than 450. Those familiar with outstanding seasons in defensive play are probably well aware of who said player is, but let’s just say he causes Death to Flying Things. Only one other outfielder has managed more than 450 since 2005: Carlos Gomez in 2008.

This got me to wondering if any of the outfielders this year, even on teams with less fly ball-orientated pitchers, came anywhere close to matching Jones’ ridiculous 45% taken of all team outfield chances. I took each of the outfielders with at least 300 chances (35 in total) and found out how many of their team’s chances each took. This adjusts for team rather than looking at the raw number. Obviously, this is a more telling number because Seattle leads the league in outfield chances and St. Louis is last. The spread is almost 300 chances exactly, which is a pretty decent gap.

As it turns out, Matt Kemp and Michael Bourn were the only players somewhat close to 40% usage rates – to steal a phrase from a basketball metric . Meanwhile, Franklin Gutierrez was still high on the list – as was Mike Cameron – but after that only Vernon Wells topped 35%. Below I’ve included the top 15 – which just so happens to be everyone over 30% usage – but there doesn’t seem to be anything unusual that sticks out besides the placement of two Houston outfielders within the top 10. Alexis Rios is listed as a Blue Jay because he spent most of the season with them.

All data courtesy of Baseball-Reference

Anyone who has followed sports for any length of time has heard the terms “clubhouse cancer” and “team chemistry” before. I think statistically minded people might downplay team chemistry a little too much, while mainstream media wildly overrates it.

CHONE, as with other projection systems, doesn’t know what a clubhouse cancer is. It will take data from past performance, weigh and regress it, and tell you what it expects Player X is going to do next season. CHONE doesn’t know what this team chemistry is that you speak of. It will also in its own plain way call a general manager’s goof when he makes one.

I feel bad for Jim Hendry, because he found himself in a bad situation and I’m sure he’s just doing his job the best he knows how. He might be trying to make lemons into lemonade, but it sure looks like he just failed. Badly.

Talk to us CHONE.

Player         Runs per 150    Defense
Milton Bradley        16            -2
Marlon Byrd            2            -3

Pitcher      Runs above replacement
Tom Gorzelanny        23
Carlos Silva           9

Even estimating playing time and taking account of position, this is a fair-sized downgrade for Chicago. Marlon Byrd has had some quietly solid seasons while stashed away in Texas, but he’s 32 and projects to be league average in a very ordinary Cub outfield. Milton Bradley may have tanked it last year, but he’s a solid rebound candidate and it’s a shame the team and the player couldn’t set aside their differences.

Tom Gorzelanny is also another player who looks primed for a rebound season. His 5.55 ERA last season looks pretty bad, but he showed some positive signs. He struck out a batter per inning, had a 2.76 strikeout-to-walk ratio and posted an xFIP of 3.73. He’s also cheap and is only 28 years old. Not very long ago he was a three win pitcher for Pittsburgh, and CHONE expects him to be a 2.5 win pitcher next year. Unfortunately for Gorzelanny, the door of opportunity was slammed in his face by the Cubs for the sake of Carlos Silva. Seriously.

The Cubs brain-trust undoubtedly believes they just got better by addition by subtraction, but you don’t get rid of cancer by cutting it out with a butcher’s knife and then sticking a band-aid over it. While Jim Hendry found himself in an unfortunate situation, there had to be a better way fixing the problem than this. His maneuvering probably cost the Cubs a couple of wins, assuming the plan is starting Silva. That’s pretty costly in a division like the NL Central.

Whew. Over the past month we’ve been taking a look at the top prospects for every MLB organization in the AL and NL Central Leagues, as well as 2006-09 draft reviews for each team. If you missed your club’s Top 10 prospects lists, the link to each article is provided for you below. We have also included an updated Detroit Top 10 list, as the previous list was written prior to the three-way deal with the Diamondbacks and the Yankees.

American League Central
Kansas City Royals | Top Prospect: Mike Montgomery, Starting Pitcher (A+)
Detroit Tigers | Top Prospect: Casey Crosby, Starting Pitcher (A-)
Chicago White Sox | Top Prospect: Tyler Flowers, Catcher (AAA)
Cleveland Indians | Top Prospect: Carlos Santana, Catcher (AA)
Minnesota Twins | Top Prospect: Aaron Hicks, Outfielder (A-)

National League Central
St. Louis Cardinals | Top Prospect: Lance Lynn, Starting Pitcher (AA)
Pittsburgh Pirates | Top Prospect: Pedro Alvarez, Third baseman (AA)
Cincinnati Reds | Top Prospect: Yonder Alonso, First baseman (AA)
Chicago Cubs | Top Prospect: Andrew Cashner, Starting Pitcher (AA)
Milwaukee Brewers | Top Prospect: Alcides Escobar, Shortstop (MLB)
Houston Astros | Top Prospect: Jason Castro, Catcher (AA)

Tigers Top 10 (Updated)
1. Casey Crosby, LHP, Low-A
2. Austin Jackson, OF, Triple-A
3. Daniel Schlereth, LHP, MLB
4. Ryan Strieby, 1B, Double-A
5. Alex Avila, C, MLB
6. Scott Sizemore, 2B, Triple-A
7. Wilken Ramirez, OF, MLB
8. Robbie Weinhardt, RHP, Double-A
9. Cody Satterwhite, RHP, Double-A
10. Brennan Boesch, OF, Double-A

The Fallen:
11. Alfredo Figaro, RHP, Majors
12. Luis Marte, RHP, Triple-A

Up Next: The AL and NL East Top 10 lists

The sense of mystery exists no matter how many times one experiences a zero-to-zero score after the third inning. Six regulation innings are left and, sometime between then and now, someone is going to break across. It sounds ridiculous because there are probably hundreds of occurrences of a scoreless game after three innings throughout a season, but it felt like it occurred every time Roy Halladay pitched against the Rays.

Halladay pitched against the Rays six times last season and 34 times throughout his career with Toronto, which is unsurprisingly the third most of his career against any one team. The “story” metrics have him at 12-11 with a 3.67 ERA and four complete games, but never a shutout. Of those six starts in 2009, the scores after three were as follows: 1-0, 1-0, 2-2, 0-5, 3-6, and 2-0. Clearly, factual evidence is not a bedmate of nostalgia.

Nevertheless, two of the most memorable games from the season came from Halladay matchups, the first of which being an early July Thursday matinee where young David Price faced off against Doc. The rumors of a trade were well saturated by this point, but it seemed to affect Halladay not in the least. His final line told of seven innings, zero walks, eight strikeouts, and three earned runs.

The next game came nearly two weeks to the day as Halladay hosted Matt Garza a week before the trade deadline. Both pitchers went nine innings and Garza not only held his own, but showed the potential to be Halladay. He struck out a batter per inning and allowed not a single walk or homer. Halladay would make one pitch fewer despite facing three additional batters. Still, it was the Rays who came out on top at the end.

These games are completely irrelevant to the reader as most have their own memories of Halladay. I should be thrilled. No longer will he reside in the division, poaching divisional victories in those four or five starts. No longer will his scruffy beard have its own close-up approximately a thousand times per outing. No longer will I be jealous of his efficiency and delicate approach to pitching — by getting ahead and relentlessly pounding the zone until the batter grounded out weakly. But I’m not too joyous, because it means no longer will I be regularly exposed to one of the best pitchers of this generation.

Thanks for the memories Roy, now go make some for fans of NL teams.

The Orioles have reportedly signed Garrett Atkins (non-tendered earlier by the Colorado Rockies) to a one-year contract with a base salary of four million dollars with incentives. The deal includes an option for 2011 with a $500,000 buyout. Atkins is thus guaranteed about $4.5 million dollars for 2010. Is Atkins worth what Baltimore will be paying?

The now-30 year-old Atkins put up genuinely impressive offensive numbers in 2006 (.410 wOBA, 142 wRC+) and 2007 (.368 wOBA, 116 wRC+) for Colorado. His wOBA dipped to .337 (98 wRC+) in 2008, which isn’t too bad until one takes into account his home park. 2009 was even more disappointing for Atkins, as he only managed a .291 wOBA (67 wRC+) and saw his playing time cut. It is difficult to project players moving out of extreme run environments like Atkins, but CHONE posts context neutral linear weights and already has Atkins projected for Baltimore: .257/.326/.410, 3 runs below average per 150 games.

While that isn’t a thrilling offensive line, three runs below average isn’t actually all that bad for a third baseman. Unfortunately, Atkins’ fielding also seems to have fallen off of a cliff. In 2006, his UZR/150 at third was a reasonable -2.1, but Atkins followed that with a horrendous -14.6 in 2007. This was bad enough that he began to see more time at first base (where he also was hardly a defensive standout), but still was below average at third, with -8.6 and -0.7 UZR/150s in 2008 and 2009 respectively. The Fans Scouting Report rates Atkins well below average as a third baseman. Jeff Zimmerman projects Atkins at -7/150 at third base for 2010. He might play some first base for Baltimore, depending on whom else they sign, but neither the positional adjustment as well as his past play there suggests that would increase his overall value. TotalZone is much more generous, projecting Atkins as a +3/150 defender, but given UZR’s rating of him as well as the fans, it’s hard to project Atkins at anything better than -5.

Including positional adjustment, over 150 games Atkins projects as about a 1.3 WAR player for 2010. Assuming $4.4 million per marginal win as average market value, his $4.5 guarantee plus incentives seems to be in the right neighborhood.

It is worth reiterating that consistently paying “fair market value” isn’t really a “smart” thing to do. Teams on budgets need to get more for their money to win consistently, especially going up against New York and Boston in the American League East. On the other hand, it isn’t particularly “dumb,” either. It’s “average…” on average. It makes sense in this particular case. They certainly didn’t want to bring back Melvin Mora, who has entered the undead phase of his career. Baltimore’s prospects at third and first aren’t ready for the major leagues yet. Atkins isn’t a star, and will be lucky to be league average again. While Baltimore surely isn’t trying to contend, as has been noted elsewhere, sometimes a team simply needs to put a competent player on the field for fans. That’s okay as long the team doesn’t pay out the nose. Baltimore isn’t paying excessively for Atkins, and he won’t be blocking any prospects who might be ready for 2011. Way to bridge a gap, Mr. MacPhail.

How do you think Garrett Atkins will play for Baltimore in 2010? Enter your fan projection by clicking here.

The Cubs have spent most of the winter trying to extract some value from Milton Bradley. Today, they gave up on that pursuit, and traded him for Carlos Silva instead.

This isn’t to say that Silva is definitely going to be terrible. Moving to the National League can do wonders for a pitcher, especially one who pounds the strike zone with mediocre stuff. Silva is not that different from Jeff Weaver, who has found success with the Dodgers the last few years. There are scenarios in which Silva could help the Cubs, especially if they use him as a middle reliever and don’t let him face LH hitters very often.

But, he is not unique. There are a lot of reclamation projects who could offer limited upside if they prove healthy, and most of them will sign minor league contracts this winter. If the Mariners had cut Silva outright, he would not have gotten more than the league minimum. He is a replacement level pitcher, even though there are scenarios where he could pitch better than that.

The motivation for this deal from the Cubs’ perspective was cash, plain and simple. The Mariners are sending $9 million to the Cubs along with Silva, which covers the difference in salary and an extra $6 million, which will almost certainly be split into $3 million per year over the life of Silva’s contract. So, for 2010 and 2011, the Cubs save a little bit of money versus just having to eat his contract and release him.

Unfortunately for Chicago, this was probably the best they could do. They can allocate that $3 million to Marlon Byrd to replace Bradley in the outfield and hope that Silva finds the NL to his liking. But, there’s no question, this brings a conclusion to the Bradley signing that makes it a total and utter disaster.

From the Mariners perspective – what else is there to say? Jack Zduriencik is a genius. If Seattle isn’t the favorite in the AL West yet, they’re really close, and they aren’t done. The Angels, Rangers, and A’s should be scared stiff.