General Manager: Ed Wade
Farm Director: Tal Smith
Scouting Director: Bobby Heck

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

What a change. After being one of the absolute worst systems in all of baseball for a few years, we’re finally seeing a light at the end of the tunnel. There is one note of caution to be had with the prospects in the system, though. Having a minor-league affiliate in Lancaster (High-A) means that many offensive prospects’ numbers will be inflated (see Koby Clemens) by playing there, while pitchers’ numbers will be skewed negatively. That extreme hitter’s park makes judging prospects all that much harder.

1. Jason Castro, C, Double-A
DOB: June 1987 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 1st round – Stanford University
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

With the re-emergence of J.R. Towles, an underrated player, and Castro’s rapid development, the organization could have a very nice problem, and in short order. The problem could be solved quite easily, though, with a platoon of the two catchers. Eventually, Castro’s bat will probably justify more at-bats as he’s hung in quite well against southpaws in pro ball (albeit in a rather small sample size). Overall in ’09, Castro hit .293/.362/.385 in 239 double-A at-bats. He began the year in high-A ball and got a lot of people excited with a .208 ISO, but that was likely the result of playing in Lancaster. His ISO rate dropped to .092 in double-A and it was just .109 in ’08. Even so, he projects to be an above-average offensive catcher. He threw out 59% of base runners attempting to steal against him in high-A, but that number dropped to 28% after his promotion.

2. Jordan Lyles, RHP, Low-A
DOB: October 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 supplemental first round – South Carolina HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-92 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

The teen-aged Lyles had an excellent season in low-A ball with a FIP of just 2.42. His strikeout rate of 10.39 K/9 was also impressive and his walk rate of 2.36 BB/9 was just as encouraging. The 44% ground-ball rate was OK and he did a nice job of keeping balls in the park with just five homers allowed (0.31 HR/9). Overall, Lyles allowed 134 hits in 144.2 innings. He was particularly effective against left-handed hitters and he posted a strikeout rate of 11.55 K/9 with just one homer allowed in 55.1 innings. The move up to Lancaster will be a huge challenge for the youngster, and his mental toughness will likely be challenged.

3. Chia-Jen Lo, RHP, Double-A
DOB: April 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 non-drafted international free agent (Taiwan)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, plus slider, change-up, splitter

The organization does not deal in the international market as much as it used to, but the club has received good value from some of its choices, such as Lo and Gervacio. Lo reached double-A in his North American debut and could help out in the Houston bullpen in 2010. The right-hander began the year in high-A and he allowed just 10 hits in 25.1 innings. He overpowered hitters and had a strikeout rate of 12.79 K/9. Lo, 23, will need to clean up his control after posting a walk rate of 4.62 BB/9 in both high-A and double-A. In 39.0 double-A innings, he gave up just one homer.

4. Ross Seaton, RHP, Low-A
DOB: September 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 3rd round – Texas HS
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-93 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Seaton was a highly-regarded amateur who fell to the Astros in the third round due to signability concerns (He was committed to the Tulane University). His first full pro season was modest. He posted a 4.08 FIP in low-A and allowed 137 hits in 136.2 innings of work. Seaton showed solid control with a rate of 2.57 BB/9, but his strikeout rate was just 5.80 K/9 and his stuff is better than that. He needs to learn to set up hitters better, and he needs to improve the command of his breaking ball. Seaton will need to improve his ground-ball rate (40%) if he’s going to survive the trip to Lancaster.

5. Sammy Gervacio, RHP, Majors
DOB: January 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2002 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options:
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, slider, change-up

With a strong showing in 21 MLB games in ’09, Gervacio likely earned himself a good shot at beginning the 2010 season in Houston’s bullpen. The right-hander posted a 2.62 FIP in 21 innings and allowed just 16 hits. His strikeout rate of 10.71 was impressive, as was his ground-ball rate of 57.4%. If he can keep those rates up, he could be a monster – as well as a future closer. Gervacio’s control has been respectable over the past few seasons and he posted a walk rate of 3.43 BB/9 in the Majors. Hitters clearly had trouble making contact with the reliever: His contact rate of 61% was almost 20% below league average, but he needs to throw more first-pitch strikes out of the bullpen (51.8%, league average was 58.2%).

6. Jonathan Gaston, OF, High-A
DOB: October 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 7th round – University of Arizona
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Just call him Mr. Lancaster. The outfielder came out of no where in ’09 to hit .278/.367/.598 with a .320 ISO but look at the splits before getting too excited. Gaston hit .309/.399/.695 at home in Lancaster and just .249/.339/.510 in the road. He needs to make some adjustments against southpaws after hitting just .228/.335/.443. He’s also going to have to improve upon his 31.7% strikeout rate. On the plus side, he showed good base running with 14 steals, 15 triples and 119 runs scored. His walk rate of 12.1% was also nice to see. Gaston definitely has some talent, but he’s not going to repeat his .410 wOBA season in double-A.

7. Jay Austin, OF, Low-A
DOB: August 1990 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 2nd round – Atlanta HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

The Astros drafted Austin knowing that he would require some patience, but he’s already making good on the investment. After posting a strikeout rate of 32.5% in his debut, Austin reduced it to 19.6% in low-A ball in ’09. His OPS also rose from .512 in ’08 to .680 this past season, with an overall line of .267/.320/.360. In 297 at-bats, the outfielder posted an ISO of just .093 so power is clearly not a part of his game right now. He stole 23 bases but was caught 13 times, so he needs to improve his reads (He was also caught six times in 20 tries in ’08).

8. T.J. Steele, OF, High-A
DOB: September 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 4th round – University of Arizona
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Drafted as a raw college project, Steele has benefited from crazy-high BABIPs of .400+ in each of his first two pro seasons. Overall in ’09, Steele hit .345/.385/.562 in 194 at-bats. His power output was positively affected from Lancaster, and he slugged .216. Injuries were a problem for Steele, as he appeared in just 50 games. He also needs to show more patience at the plate (4.4%) and use his speed on the base paths more effectively (eight steals in 14 tries… but he was hampered by hamstring issues). A healthy Steele should move up to double-A in 2010 where we’ll get a better feel for his abilities.

9. Brad Dydalewicz, LHP, Low-A
DOB: March 1990 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 8th round – Texas HS
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Dydalewicz shows a lot of potential and he had a nice first full season in the minors in ’09. The southpaw allowed just 93 hits in 110.0 innings, in part due to a low .273 BABIP. His walk rate was a little high at 4.17 BB/9 and his strikeout rate was low at 6.38 K/9. Dydalewicz did a nice job of limiting the home run (0.49 HR/9) and he had an impressive ground-ball rate at 54%. He’ll probably need to log quite a few innings before he’s MLB-ready, but the 19 year old has a nice ceiling if everything clicks.

10. Collin DeLome, OF, Double-A
DOB: December 1985 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2007 5th round – Lamar University
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

DeLome is another one of those raw, athletic college players that Houston just seems to love. He’s struggled to hit for average over the past two seasons, but his power has played really well. This past season, DeLome hit .255/.323/.465 with an ISO of .210 in 467 at-bats. His strikeout rate of 30.2% needs to be trimmed and he needs to clean up his base running after getting caught eight times in 23 tries. The left-handed hitter batted .225/.315/.432 against southpaws and .270/.331/.480 against right-handers. He could contribute in Houston in 2010.

Up Next: The New York Yankees

The signing of Nick Johnson by the Yankees is a good move for New York, for all the reasons Jack talked about this morning. But, for players like Russ Branyan, Jim Thome, and Vladimir Guerrero, it is bad news indeed.

As Brian Cashman noted earlier in the off-season, he ran into a designated hitter looking for a job no matter where he turned. The market is saturated with good hitters who can’t play the field, and unfortunately for them, the National League doesn’t use a DH. So, their options are limited to AL teams who don’t already have a designated hitter in the fold.

The Yankees were a potential landing spot for DH types, especially left-handed ones looking to exploit the right field wall in New Yankee Stadium. However, New York signed a first baseman to take that spot, decreasing the supply of available jobs for defensively challenged players without taking any DH types off the market.

Johnson’s signing, along with Matsui’s deal in LA, also sets something of a price ceiling for guys with limited defensive value. That Johnson and Matsui were not able to get more than $6 million as the best of the bunch in this player type limits the bargaining power that the lesser players have. Not only are the jobs diminishing quickly, but they’re going to have to take $2 to $4 million in order to land one.

There aren’t many DH jobs left available. If I was the agent for any of the aging sluggers with no defensive value, I’d be trying everything I could to land a job in Baltimore or Texas as quickly as possible. This game of musical chairs is going to leave several good hitters standing around, trying to figure out what they’re going to do with their lives after baseball.

The Yankees have absolutely refused to stand pat this offseason. After adding Curtis Granderson in the first big trade of the winter, the Yankees have now agreed to terms with 1B/DH Nick Johnson. Johnson will receive roughly 5.5 million dollars for his services.

The champions have revamped their outfield and DH positions from last season, and it’s hard to deny that they’ve made a significant improvement. The signing of Johnson replaces the recently departed Hideki Matsui, and also makes Johnny Damon unnecessary. Johnson is a significant on-base threat, with a career OBP of .402. His power declined significantly last year, but despite below average power numbers – .114 ISO and .405 SLG – he still posted a .373 wOBA. It’s likely that Johnson regains some of his power this year, especially as a left handed batter in New Yankee Stadium, and will be worth well above his salary if he can only stay healthy – a task that should be made easier by the DH role.

The lineups that the Yankees can use with Johnson are absolutely ridiculous. Between Johnson, Derek Jeter, and Alex Rodriguez, the Yankees will have 3 players with a 2009 OBP over .400, and with Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher, 5 players over .370.

Toss in Robinson Cano (.370 wOBA), Jorge Posada (.378 wOBA), and Curtis Granderson (.340 wOBA, .374 Fan Projected wOBA), and the Yankees can throw 8 players that are star level hitters in their everyday lineup. The last spot goes to either Brett Gardner or Melky Cabrera, both of whom are average to above-average players in left field depending on their defense, and there is still the chance that the Yankees add Jason Bay or Matt Holliday.

The Yankees have put themselves in a position to be even better than last year, and they’ve managed to do it while shedding payroll and making shrewd transactions. The Red Sox and Rays should be afraid. The American League should be afraid. Baseball should be afraid. The New York Yankees are back, and they’re here to stay.

This is experimental and I’m not entirely sure I like the formatting, but here we go anyways. Regardless, the chart below shows the collective first base wRAA and UZR for each team. The color scale (greener is good, redder is bad) applied to each column shows their respective standings relative to the rest of the league. For instance, the Cubs and – no shocker here – Padres have strong first base play in both offense and defensive respects, while teams like the Athletics and Diamondbacks could really use an upgrade. I used wRAA instead of wOBA so the run values of each would be present (and represented in the Total category) rather than making everyone translate the wOBA to runs and figure things out from there.

Now obviously, we’re talking about acquiring Adrian Gonzalez – who was a large part of what looks to be the fourth best first base production in baseball last season. This chart is hardly foretelling of true talent levels, contractual and budget status, farm system depth, and placement on the win curve. Luckily, we can break this down easy enough by using tiers.

Read the rest of this entry »

Instead of going team by team this off season, I will review the divisions as a group. And whereas last year, I used a version of BaseRuns, with some modifications for strength of schedule and the like thrown in, to determine the ranking of teams’ true talent levels, this year I will use WAR as provided here on FanGraphs.

Part Three: The AL Central

The ranks last year were Chicago (6th), Cleveland (11th), Minnesota (15th), Detroit (19th) and Kansas City (24th). Overall, about an average division in 2008 which the actual won-loss records would indicate as well as the division total was just two games over .500. 2009 saw some upheaval as the leaders of 2008 fell off a cliff.

Thanks to a one game playoff, the Twins came ahead of the Tigers to advance into post season play. In WAR land, Minnesota and Detroit were also evenly matched. The Twins totaled 38.1 WAR, good for a tie for 11th place overall. The Tigers were right behind in 13th place with 37.8 WAR.

After those two though there was a sizable gap until the White Sox appeared at 33 WAR, in 19th place. Then in rapid succession came the Indians, 30 WAR and the Royals at 27 WAR, at 21st and 23th overall respectively.

The White Sox were actually one of the better pitching teams in 2009, with an almost flawless rotation and Matt Thornton and D.J. Carrasco providing great bullpen efforts. It was the position players that torpedoed their season. Second worst in all of baseball (the Royals were worst), only four players topped two wins (Paul Konerko, A.J. Pierzynski, Alexei Ramirez and Gordon Beckham) and none topped three. The fielding (-35.6 runs) was just as much of a culprit as the lousy hitting (-40.6 runs).

Here’s a summary of the ranks for the AL Central teams, with 2008 first.
CHW: 6, 19
CLE: 11, 21
MIN: 15, 11
DET: 19, 13
KCR: 24, 23

When the Angels signed Hideki Matsui to be their DH and maybe a part time outfielder, it seemed like a pretty good fit on the surface. As RJ noted at the time, Matsui brings a left-handed bat to a team that could use one, and he should still be a productive hitter in 2010. On a one year contract for just over $6 million, he’s not a bad deal. However, I wonder what effect this move will have on the rest of the roster.

As we saw in October, Mike Scioscia sees value in having Jeff Mathis behind the plate. Mike Napoli played 18 games at designated hitter a year ago as the Angels worked his bat into the line-up without making him squat behind the plate. Napoli was the most commonly used DH for the Angels besides Vladimir Guerrero.

With Matsui on the roster, that option is pretty limited. They could use Napoli as Matsui’s platoon partner, using him at DH when a lefty is on the hill, but is Scioscia goinig to want to limit himself to only using Mathis against southpaws? Keep in mind that Mathis started 78 games in the regular season a year ago and then essentially became the starting catcher in the ALCS.

I find it unlikely that Scioscia would scale back Mathis’ role this year, given his preference for his skills behind the plate. So, while Matsui offers the potential of a productive DH, I have to wonder what the opportunity cost associated with having him on the roster is. If Napoli’s playing time is cut significantly as a result, did the Angels really get that much better?

Matsui certainly provides depth, and Napoli’s injury history suggests that perhaps they couldn’t afford to count on him playing regularly, but after losing John Lackey and Chone Figgins and then losing out on the Roy Halladay sweepstakes, the Angels could use a premium player more than they could use multiple solid players. Especially with the moves being made in Seattle and Texas, the AL West appears to be up for grabs – Anaheim fans should be hoping that their new DH doesn’t take too much playing time from Napoli, or else their one off-season move so far won’t do much to keep the other teams from nipping at their heels.

In my most recent dispatch, I — once I got past the crap — I looked at a couple of pitchers in Gio Gonzalez and Felipe Paulino whose Regressed tRAs (see: tRA*, courtesy of Matthew Carruth’s and Graham MacAree’s StatCorner) suggest a level of skill considerably beyond what their 2009 numbers might otherwise indicate.

Here are three more tRA* surprises from the 183 starting pitchers who recorded at least 150 xOuts (xFIP and xFIP rank — also out of 183 — in parentheses):

55. Garrett Mock, 4.55 (4.25/62)
In 54 career major league appearances, Mock has only 18 starts. Fifteen of them came last season in a total of 28 appearances. Here’s something strange about Mock: Despite being jerked around between levels and roles, he’s actually posted great peripherals these past two years. In addition to the strong 2009, he posted a 4.77/3.90 (tRA*/xFIP) in 2008 and, in 155.2 combined minor league IP over the last two seasons, has 144 K, 38 BB, a ground-ball rate around 45% and a line-drive rate below 20%.

Nor was this a case of being exposed as a starter, either: Mock posted a 18.4% K-rate and 10% BB-rate as a starter versus only rates of 9.5% and 12.7%, respectively, as a reliever (albeit in only 63 opponent PAs).

In this case, the culprit appears to be BABIP, which checks in at a robust .347 over his first 132.1 MLB IP. That might be bad luck. It might be that Mock’s BABIP-prone (although that’d still be high). Also, it could just be what happens when you play for the Washington Natinals Nationals. However it is, Mock’s 3-10, 5.62 season probably isn’t representative of his talents.

58. Billy Buckner, 4.58 (3.77/29)
Who the what?! In the event that you’re not acquainted with Buckner — which, I don’t entirely blame you — here’s a brief summary: He was drafted by the Royals out of the University of South Carolina in 2004. He made his debut with said depressing franchise in August of 2007. In December of that same year, he was traded to Arizona for Alberto Callaspo. Overall, he’s had a few decent minor league seasons, posting a K per IP every now and then, but nothing very promising.

Last year, however, Buckner showed signs of life, producing his best-ever minor league FIP, a 3.31 mark, on the strength of an 8.39 K/9 and 3.93 BB/9 in 103 IP (13/16 GS/G). Moreover, his major league returns, distributed predominately over two month-long call-ups (5/22 – 6/26 and 9/3-10/2), were excellent: 77.1 IP, 64 K, 29 BB, 48.8% GB, 21.3% LD. The line drives are a touch high, maybe, but not dangerously so. And like Mock, he excelled as a starter, recording a 19.1% K-rate and 7.8% BB-rate over 320 opponent plate appearances.

His 4-6 record and 6.40 ERA are unlikely to get him any attention, but a 63.% LOB-rate, 16.7% HR/FB, and .347 BABIP all suggest that Buckner is better than that.

63. Mitchell Boggs, 4.61 (4.67/121)
Boggs is a little bit different than the two other guys here, because he actually benefited from some good luck last year. His HR/FB came in at a friendly 5.7%, his ERA was a perfectly reasonable 4.19, and he did it all with an underwhelming 46/33 K/BB situation going on. Of course, those numbers are mitigated largely by his ugly .366 opponent BABIP. Anyway, whatever his apparent success, though, you’d be hard-pressed to say he was highly regarded — a fact to which his multiple demotions can attest. Nor did St. Louis ever really find a specific role for him, as his 9/16 (GS/G) split suggests.

What we can say about Boggs is that, given his peripherals from last season, there appears to be a chance of him becoming a useful starter in the Cardinal mold. His starting and relieving K/BB were almost identical (1.40 v. 1.38), as were his GB%s (both right around his season mark of 52.7%). If that doesn’t necessarily correspond with your impression of Boggs over the season, here’s why, probably: His opponent BABIP was .389 when he started versus only .292 when he relieved.

Ideally for Boggs, he’ll continue to develop in the direction of his last four starts, over which period he posted a 58.0% GB-rate and 12.3% BB-rate. Which is to say, he’s not Joel Pineiro yet (60.5% and 3.1% in those cats, respectively). But then again, before last year, not even Joel Pineiro was Joel Pineiro.

How well do you think Mock, Buckner, and Boggs will perform in 2010? Enter your Fan Projection here.

General Manager: Ed Wade
Farm Director: Tal Smith
Scouting Director: Bobby Heck

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-draft signees ($200,000 or more)

2009 1st Round: Jiovanni Mier, SS, California HS
2. Tanner Bushue, RHP, Illinois HS
3. Telvin Nash, OF, Georgia HS
3S. Jonathan Meyer, 3B, California HS

Mier had a nice debut season for the Astros. The shortstop slugged seven homers in 192 at-bats (.208 ISO) and also showed his speed with six triples. He stole 10 bases but was caught five times, so he needs to improve his base running. The 13.5% walk rate was also very impressive for a teenager hitter, but the strikeout rate of 23.4% was a little high. Even so, the organization will certainly take a wOBA of .385 from Mier.

Bushue had a solid intro to professional baseball in ’09 while making five starts. He showed solid control in the small sample size of 22.1 innings by posting a walk rate of 2.01 BB/9. Bushue also managed a strikeout rate of 7.66 K/9. With a ground-ball rate of 37.3%, the right-hander will want to try and keep the ball out of the air a little more, especially if he’s going to play in Minute Maid Park.

Nash struggled in his pro debut and hit just .218/.280/.324 in 142 at-bats. The outfielder swung-and-missed too much, with a strikeout rate of 31.7%. He showed a lot of raw power as an amateur but his ISO rate of .106 suggests he has a long way to go to tap into that home-run ability. Defensively, the former first baseman was used in left field and he made six errors in 19 games.

The club’s fourth prep pick in as many selections, Meyer also had a rough debut in rookie ball and he hit just .190/.301/.299 with a strikeout rate of 31.2% in 221 at-bats. On the plus side, he did walk at a rate of 14.0%. A relatively new switch-hitter, Meyer hit just .111/.298/.111 against left-handed pitching.

2008 1st Round: Jason Castro, C, Stanford
1S. Jordan Lyles, RHP, South Carolina HS
2. Jay Austin, OF, Georgia HS
3. Chase Davidson, 1B, Georgia HS (Did not sign)
3S. Ross Seaton, RHP, Texas HS
4x – T.J. Steele, OF, Arizona
8x – Brad Dydalewicz, LHP, Texas HS

The club had a nice draft haul in ’08 (See what can be done when you don’t punt your draft picks!) and six members of the Top 10 prospect list can be found in this draft: Castro, Lyles, Austin, Seaton, Steele, and Dydalewicz.

The club failed to sign third-rounder Davidson, who took his potent prep bat to the University of Georgia and hit .231/.291/.389 (108 at-bats) in his first taste of college ball. Unable to sign Davidson, the club did hand some extra cash to Steele, who was an extremely raw college player but with an immense ceiling.

2007 1st Round: Derek Dietrich, 3B, Cleveland HS (3rd round, Did not sign)
2. None
3. None

Ugh. This was a nasty, nasty draft. It actually makes the Blue Jays’ ’09 draft look good. Dietrich snubbed Houston for Georgia Tech and he hit .311/.426/.511 in 225 at-bats as a sophomore in ’09. The ultra-athletic Collin DeLome (5th round) just squeaked into the Top 10 list, based on his power/speed/defensive potential.

2006 1st Round: Max Sapp, C, Florida HS
2. Sergio Perez, RHP, Tampa
3. Nick Moresi, OF, Fresno State

Things have not gone well for Sapp. The club will just be happy to see him on the field in 2010, if he’s recovered from viral meningitis, chronic sinus disease and seizures.

Perez has hit a wall in his development. The right-hander allowed 167 hits in 142.1 innings at double-A in ’09 and his strikeout rate dropped to 4.55 K/9. Moresi’s batting average of .244 in 135 high-A at-bats in ’09 was a career high, which is obviously not a good sign. He moved up to double-A and hit just .208/.247/.388 in 183 at-bats with a strikeout rate of 28.4%.

Infielder Chris Johnson (4th round) and right-hander Bud Norris (6th round) were much better picks. The 25-year-old Johnson projects to be a solid utility or platoon player for Houston after hitting .281/.3232/.461 in triple-A. Norris contributed 55.2 innings in Houston in ’09 and should be a member of the starting rotation in 2010. Outfielder Tyler Henley was the club’s 50th round selection as a draft-eligible sophomore but he did not sign. He went much higher to the Cardinals in ’07 (8th round) and has the potential to be a solid big-league contributor.

Up Next: The Houston Astros Top 10 Prospects

Last year, bad defensive outfielders got a rude awakening in free agency, as Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell, and Bobby Abreu learned first hand that teams were beginning to value defense at positions besides catcher and shortstop. There were too many lumbering sluggers available, and the excess supply drove prices down for all of them.

This year, the hurt is landing on second baseman. Between teams who want to trade their incumbent away (Dan Uggla, Luis Castillo, Jose Lopez) and some talented free agents looking to get paid (Orlando Hudson, Felipe Lopez, Placido Polanco), the market was flooded with available second baseman. It didn’t help when Kelly Johnson was non-tendered by the Braves. Polanco is the only one of the seven who has found a new home, and he had to switch positions to land his deal with Philadelphia.

Meanwhile, the Marlins are still struggling to find a good deal for Uggla, who they assumed would be a hot commodity. The Mets would like to sign Hudson, but have to trade Castillo first, and there’s no market for his services. The Mariners have made no secret of the fact that Jose Lopez is available, but other teams are apparently not fond of him for the same reasons Seattle would like to move him. And there has been nary a rumor about Felipe Lopez, despite the fact that he’s coming off a +4.6 win season.

The news just got worse for these guys yesterday. The Dodgers, one of the few teams actively looking for a second baseman, signed Jamey Carroll to a two year, $4 million contract, and will let him and Blake DeWitt split time at the position. Like the Tigers, they preferred to go young and cheap as opposed to paying for a name player at the position.

Now, you have to wonder where any of these guys are going to land. The Giants would probably take one of these guys if they came at a bargain, but might require them to shift to third base if they aren’t as good defensively as Freddy Sanchez. Perhaps the Cubs may get involved, but they seem unlikely to hand out more than a one year deal to anyone, given their stated plan of shifting Ryan Theriot across the bag once young Starlin Castro proves ready for the big leagues.

Who else is really looking for a second baseman? The Twins, perhaps, but certainly not on a significant contract, and they may prefer a third baseman instead. Just looking at the demand for the position and the supply of players currently available, I’m guessing that Uggla, Johnson, and Felipe Lopez may have to end up switching positions in order to find a new home. For the Mariners and Mets, they’re probably stuck with the guys they already have. This is just not the year to be trading a second baseman.

Let’s keep it rolling today by projecting three pitchers: Gil Meche, Oliver Perez, and J.J. Putz.

After excellent 2007 and 2008 seasons for the Royals, Meche battled injuries and ineffectiveness in 2009. Given the Royals’ situation and Meche’s salary, his trade value is an issue for Kansas City going forward, and obviously his performance in the coming season plays a large part in that if they don’t trade him during the offseason.

Oliver Perez seems to be another instance of Omar’s folly. Is there any hope there?

J. J. Putz was recently signed by the White Sox coming off of an injury-plagued season. What do we think his role will be in Chicago, and how will he perform?