It may or may not interest the reader to know that I’m writing these words from Aix-en-Provence. Yes, in France. No, I’m not joking. Yes, c’est totally vrai.

As to why I’m here, I can’t say exactly, on account of how unimaginably low down on the Down Low it is, but I can tell you this: My wife lives here. Is she a spy, sent here by the US government to learn more about stinky cheese and arrogance? Obviously, I’m not at liberty to answer that sort of question.

But one more thing I can tell you is this: While milady speaks the native language fluently, my own French — to put it lightly, and probably also wrongly — is pas bien. As a result, I don’t do a lot of the old “talking” here. Mostly I spend my time indoors, imbibing all manner of fermented beverage, and pruning my awesome fantasy basketball team so’s to make it even awesomer. (Actually, I should add: I also try to read L’equipe, a real-live sporting daily that, despite being a little light on quantitative analysis, appears to be a legitimately awesome paper.)

So, like I say, I don’t parle the Francais real great. Still, one thing I know for sure how to say — perhaps the first phrase I ever learned — is Je deteste voyager en hiver. For those of you following along at home, that means (en anglais), “I hate to travel in winter.” I don’t know why or how I learned such a thing, but I’m glad I did, on account of I actually do hate traveling in winter. And not just that, but there are like thirty other things I hate to do in winter — things like going outdoors and paying the gas bill and also just being awake. Cold = my worst nightmare.

As much as that might be the case, I’m quite sure the reader didn’t come here to get bummed the frig out by Carson Cistulli. Which, that’s why I’m proud to announce that there are also a number of winter activities I enjoy — activities like drinking hot toddies and drinking mulled wine and drinking hot cider.

Oh, and also sorting statistical leaderboards like a mother.

One such leaderboard to which I’m particularly looking forward is the wRC+ one. When FanGraphs Overlord David Appelman adds it to these electronic pages, I can tell you right now that I’m gonna sort the crap out of it.

But that’s not what I’m here to talk about. What I’m here to talk about is how today I was sorting through the tRA* leaderboard — that is, regressed tRA — over at our own Matthew Carruth’s StatCorner.

If you sort tRA* for the starting pitchers who recorded at least 150 xOuts — that is, expected outs based on the tRA outcomes — you get a lot of the usual suspects. For example, here are the top 10 finishers in tRA*, compiled in an embarrassingly sophisticated table (with tRA, so you can see the difference):

Read the rest of this entry »

As Dave talked about, the Phillies downgraded their farm system to swap out an ace who wanted to test the free-agent waters next year, Cliff Lee, for another who was willing to sign a bargain extension, Roy Halladay. Halladay is also a slight upgrade over Lee.

Over the past three years Halladay has been the second most valuable pitcher in the game and one of only seven twenty-win players. He excels at limiting walks (under two per nine in each of the last five seasons) and getting ground balls (never less than 50% GB per BIP), while striking out an average to above-average (in the past two years) number of batters. That combination is more than enough to make him an elite pitcher.

In the build-up to the last season’s trade deadline, when it looked like he might be dealt, I broke down his stuff. He throws a cutter, two-seam fastball, curveball and the occasional changeup. In that piece I noted that he throws his cutter and two-seam fastball frequently to both RHBs and LHBs, giving him two fastballs against all batters. Here I wanted to look at where, horizontally, these fastballs were thrown compared to the average RHP’s. Here is how it looks to RHBs.

RHPs throw their cutter away to RHBs. Halladay does this even more so: he rarely throws the pitch inside and very often throws it to the outer fourth of the plate. But his two-seam location is different than average. While the average RHP throws his two-seam fastball down the middle of the plate to RHBs, Halladay throws it extremely inside.

Against LHPs we see the mirrored pattern, with the pitches switching roles. Overall this means that Halladay has a fastball he can locate on the inner or outer quarter of the plate against both LHBs and RHBs. This allows him to throw strikes without having to throw over the heart of the plate while mixing up the horizontal location of his pitches. I am sure this is a huge part of his success.

General Manager: Doug Melvin
Farm Director: Reid Nichols
Scouting Director: Bruce Seid

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-draft signees ($200,000 or more)

2009 1st Round: Eric Arnett, RHP, Indiana
1S. Kentrail Davis, OF, Tennessee
1S. Kyle Heckathorn, RHP, Kennesaw State
2. Max Walla, OF, New Mexico HS
2. Cameron Garfield, C, California HS
3. Josh Prince, SS, Tulane
4x – Brooks Hall, RHP, South Carolina
5x – D’Vontrey Richardson, OF, Florida State
16x – Scooter Gennett, SS, Florida HS
15x – Del Howell, LHP, Alabama

The Milwaukee Brewers spent a lot of money on the draft with five picks before the third round and by agreeing to four over-slot deals but a lot of the players chosen are quite raw. The most advanced of the bunch, Arnett, signed and was started off slowly as one of the few top-drafted college players that began their careers in rookie ball. He posted a 3.63 FIP (4.41 ERA) in 34.2 innings. His control was off, as he posted a walk rate of 5.45 BB/9, but he struck out a lot of teenagers: 9.09 K/9. Truth be told, the numbers tell us very little based on the competition he faced, but the walks are definitely worrisome.

Davis did not play after signing, but he’s considered a solid hitter with some questions about his ability to remain in center field. If he moves to left, he may not have enough pop in his bat to be a regular. Heckathorn has one of the better fastballs in the entire draft class, but he’s never had a lot of success. His secondary stuff is below-average, although he occasionally flashes a good slider. Few people expect him to remain a starter. In his debut, he posted a 4.86 FIP (6.04 ERA) but showed solid control at 1.61 BB/9. His command was not as good, though, and he allowed four homers in 22.1 innings (1.61 HR/9) in rookie ball.

Coming out of a New Mexico high school, Walla had a pretty solid reputation given his limited exposure. Unfortunately, he struggled in his first taste of pro ball and hit just .199/.283/.280 in 186 rookie-ball at-bats. At the root of the problem: A strikeout rate of 44.1%. The left-handed hitter has good, raw power for his size (5’11”).

A solid defensive amateur catcher, Garfield made 16 errors behind the plate in rookie ball and threw out just 16% of runners attempting to steal. He had modest results at the plate and hit .248/.299/.353 with an ISO of .106 in 218 at-bats. His strikeout rate was high at 28.0% and his walk rate was low at 4.4%. The game will hopefully slow down for him in his first full season with some more seasoning in extended spring training.

Prince was another college prospect started off in rookie ball, where he appeared in 36 games. That level is typically below what top college players face in NCAA, so we’ll just cut to the numbers he posted after a promotion to low-A ball. Prince hit .221/.307/.287 in 122 at-bats. He showed solid patience at the plate (10.9 BB%) for a player whose game is built around speed. Overall on the year (in 67 games), the middle infielder stole 38 bases in 50 attempts (12 for 17 in low-A).

Hall, Richardson, and Gennett did not appear in a pro game after signing, so they will make their debuts in 2010. Howell appeared in just five games, including three starts in rookie ball. The left-hander allowed seven hits in 8.2 innings during those starts and showed solid control with just two walks.

2008 1st Round: Brett Lawrie, 2B, British Columbia HS
1S. Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Illinois HS
1S. Evan Frederickson, LHP, San Francisco
2. Seth Lintz, RHP, Tennessee HS
2. Cutter Dykstra, OF, California HS
2. Cody Adams, RHP, Southern Illinois
3. Logan Schafer, OF, Cal Poly
19x – Blake Billings, RHP, Alabama HS

The organization spent a lot of money during the ’08 draft, thanks to six picks before the third round. Both Lawrie and Odorizzi will appear on the club’s Top 10 list after having solid ’09 seasons, considering their age and inexperience.

A pitcher with a good fastball, Frederickson’s biggest issue is finding the plate after posting a walk rate of 7.58 BB/9 in 97.1 low-A innings. He has potential as a late-game reliever if he can harness his stuff. Lintz is a former prep pick that has the same issue as Frederickson: a lack of control. In 40.1 rookie ball innings in ’09, the right-hander tossed up a walk rate of 8.48 BB/9. He also had issue with the gopher ball (1.12 HR/9).

Dykstra had a down year. He hit .212/.310/.303 in 99 low-A at-bats and was sent back down to rookie ball for more seasoning, but managed a line of just .244/.332/.349 in 209 at-bats. The right-handed hitter shows good patience at the plate (11.4 BB% in rookie ball) but he needs to trim the strikeouts (23.9%).

For a college guy, Adams struggled in low-A ball and posted a walk rate of 5.15 BB/9 in 57.2 innings. On the plus side, he kept the ball in the yard and managed a 50% ground-ball rate. Billings had trouble in his second year of rookie ball and posted a walk rate of 5.79 BB/9, but he also struck out a good number of batters when he could find the plate (8.10 K/9). His 7.14 ERA was not quite as bad as it looked, considering his FIP came in at 4.79.

Value-wise, Schafer was the club’s best pick. He hit .313/.369/.446 in 457 high-A at-bats and played solid defense. He even received a seven-game trial in double-A. Schafer does need to improve his base running a bit after getting nabbed eight times in 25 tries.

2007 1st Round: Matt LaPorta, 1B, Florida
2. None
3. Jonathan Lucroy, C, Louisiana-Lafayette
44x – Shawn Zarraga, C/3B, Florida HS

LaPorta was a solid, albeit surprising, first pick for the organization. He was flipped to Cleveland in the C.C. Sabathia deal, which did not work out all that well for the organization, considering LaPorta is just scratching the surface of his big-league potential and the club received just half a season of the veteran pitcher. Lucroy has a good shot at the Majors in 2010 and could develop into the club’s No. 1 catcher.

Zarraga received big money for the 44th round, but he struggled in ’09. He showed good patience with a walk rate above 11%, but his strikeout rate was too high and his power was non-existant (0.30 ISO) in 140 rookie and low-A at-bats.

Right-hander Cody Scarpetta had a good ’09 season and will appear on the club’s Top 10 list.

Fourth-round Eric Farris has posted solid pro numbers. The second baseman stole 70 bases in 76 tries in high-A ball in ’09. He also hit .298/.341/.385 in 473 at-bats. He needs to walk more (5.8 BB%) but he does a nice job of limiting the strikeouts (9.7%).

Outfielder Caleb Gindl (5th round) is another player to keep an eye on. He hit .277/.363/.459 in 394 high-A at-bats and showed good power (.183) for his size (5’9”). He also stole 18 bases in 22 tries.

2006 1st Round: Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, Virginia HS
2. Brent Brewer, SS, Georgia HS
3. Cole Gillespie, OF, Oregon State
12x – Chad Robinson, RHP, Nevada HS
16x – R.J. Seidel, RHP, Wisconsin HS
19x – Lee Haydel, OF, Lousiana HS
31x – Rob Bryson, RHP, Delaware HS

First-rounder Jeffress has been a wasted talent due to alleged drug abuse. Despite a name that was made for the organization, Brewer has been an offensive disaster and he hit just .222/.288/.287 in 356 high-A at-bats in ’09. His strikeout rate of 30.6% is way too high for a player with an ISO rate of .065. Gillespie was flipped to Arizona in a trade this past season.

The club signed four key over-slot players, but none have truly broken out yet. Robinson has had injury problems and he’s pitched just 10 innings in the past two seasons. Seidel posted an ERA of more than 6.80 in two stops in ’09 and pitched just 57.0 innings. Bryson showed some real promise in ’08 but he was traded to Cleveland in the Sabathia deal and later had surgery on his shoulder.

Haydel is the club’s best hope for some return on its investment. The speed outfielder hit .275/.302/.340 in 491 at-bats in high-A. Unfortunately, he has yet to realize it’s a speedsters job to get on base and he walked just 3.3% of the time in ’09. He was successful in 39 of 49 steal attempts. Haydel is not likely to play everyday at the MLB level after struggling against southpaws with a line of .168/.242/.304.

Right-hander Evan Anundsen (4th round) has had good success in the low minors and he made the club’s Top 10 list.

Up Next: The Milwaukee Brewers Top 10 Prospects

Last week, I titled my post about the Curtis Granderson three way trade “The Big Deal”. That deal is now small potatoes compared to the three team blockbuster that Toronto, Philadelphia, and Seattle are poised to complete. After a day full of changing names, here’s the current belief on the final package.

Toronto gets: Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, Travis D’Arnaud
Philadelphia gets: Roy Halladay, Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, Juan Ramirez (he now goes by J.C.), $6 million in cash
Seattle gets: Cliff Lee

This is a true blockbuster. Halladay and Lee are both among the top five or six pitchers in the game. You rarely see two premium players of this quality moved in the same deal. And, it’s just a fun trade, not your normal big-market-buying-good-player-from-little-market deal.

So, let’s look at why each team made this deal.

Let’s start with the Blue Jays. They were obviously over a barrel with Halladay after the debacle of trying to trade him this summer. New GM Alex Anthopolous knew he needed to move his ace for the best package he could get, but also come away with enough young talent to sell this as more than an admission that they screwed up in July. In the trio of young players they’re getting from the Phillies, they were able to do just that.

Drabek, Taylor, and D’Arnaud are high quality prospects. For one year of Halladay (and $6 million in cash, which isn’t trivial but less useful to a Toronto team that won’t win in 2010), that’s a very strong return. Anthopolous did well to come away with that level of talent, given his leverage in the situation.

On Philly’s end, the motivation for this move seems clear – get a #1 starter locked up beyond 2010. They didn’t feel that was possible with Lee, so they were willing to take a downgrade in the farm system to swap out an ace for one that they could lock up. The theory is pretty sound, I think, especially given the rumored 3 year, $60 million price tag that came with Halladay’s extension. That’s a bargain for a guy as good as Doc, and the extension provides significant value to the Phillies.

Seattle’s aim is also pretty clear – win in 2010. Not content with adding Chone Figgins and making a few other small moves that would help them maintain their status as a .500ish club, the Mariners saw an opportunity to put themselves in the AL West race and took it. Lee is a huge upgrade for their pitching staff and a perfect fit for Safeco Field. The cost was fair to middling prospects, not premium guys who would help the team in 2010, and the Mariners saw this as a chance to add wins at a far below market price without sacrificing too much of their future.

For all three franchises, the thought behind the deal is sound. There are legitimate reasons for fans of all three teams to be happy about this deal. However, I think Toroto and Seattle fans can feel comfortable that this was the best their team could have done. Philly fans, I don’t think you can feel that same way.

The Cliff Lee to Seattle portion of this trade just seems very light in return for the Phillies. They’re getting two power arms with a lot of questions marks and a speedy center fielder without a lot of power. None of these guys are top tier prospects. This is the best Philadelphia could have gotten for Lee? Really? A pu-pu platter of interesting, high-risk guys not really close to the majors for a Cy Young-quality pitcher who is already well on his way to Type A free agency?

And, even if that’s true, why clear $8 million from the books by trading Lee? Surely, you could have moved Joe Blanton without eating any of his salary, even if you didn’t love the deals being offered. Or, how about this – don’t sign J.C. Romero, Brian Schneider, and Ross Gload, whose 2010 salaries are about equal to Lee’s. Replace those three reserves with league minimum guys and you’ve saved enough money to keep Lee around.

Halladay will help them, and the extension he signed is a great deal. But it just seems like they bent over backwards to make this particular deal, when there were so many other ways of going about it. It just seems to me that the Phillies could have had Halladay and Lee, and that reality would leave me pretty frustrated today if I were a Phillies fan.

No matter how you slice the Roy Halladay trade, it had to be done and Toronto fans were going to be let down. The trade could have brought three A-level prospects into the system and it still would have hurt… a lot. The rest of the fans around Major League Baseball are finally going to have the opportunity to appreciate Halladay after he’s spent the past 12 years in northern obscurity. The former Cy Young award winner has pitched 200+ innings for four straight seasons and is an undisputed No. 1 pitcher, and those are a lot rarer than most people realize.

Reportedly, there are six prospects changing hands once the trade is finalized. Toronto ends up receiving one A-level prospect and two B-level prospects, or a smidgen more than it would have if the organization had held onto Halladay for the entire 2010 season and then let him walk for two high draft picks. Overall, the talent changing hands in the three-team deal, which also sees Cliff Lee head to Seattle, ranks like this:

1. Kyle Drabek, RHP (from Philadelphia to Toronto)
2. Phillippe Aumont, RHP (from Seattle to Philadelphia)
3. Michael Taylor, OF (from Philadelphia to Toronto)
4. Travis D’Arnaud, C (from Philadelphia to Toronto)
5. Tyson Gillies, OF (from Seattle to Philadelphia)
6. J.C. Ramirez, RHP (from Seattle to Philadelphia)

To be honest, I’m not sure why this was a three-team deal. Toronto received nothing from Seattle. The Phillies organization could have done the deal and taken its the time to deal Lee for a better haul than what it got from Seattle. Perhaps the club wanted to soften the blow of trading off its post-season hero with the acquisition of Halladay? Or why not keep both Halladay and Lee and make a serious run at the World Series in 2010? That two-headed monster at the top of the rotation would have struck fear in any lineup.

But it’s not my job to analyze the overall deal. I’m the prospects guy, so let’s get on to the fun stuff.

The Toronto Blue Jays’ Haul:
Kyle Drabek is the key to the deal and helps to ease the pain from not receiving the Phillies’ top prospect in outfielder Domonic Brown (who definitely is the best player in all three organizations). The Toronto organization has pretty good pitching depth (at least related to its lack of hitting prospects) but Drabek has a higher ceiling (No. 1 or 2 starter) than anyone in the Jays system. The right-hander had a nice year in ’09 while coming back from Tommy John surgery.

He began the year in high-A and allowed just 49 hits in 61.2 innings. The son of Doug Drabek showed solid control with a walk rate of just 2.77 BB/9 and overpowered hitters, as witnessed by his 10.80 strikeout rate. He also did not allow a home run despite a modest ground-ball rate of 45.2%. Moved up to double-A, the 22-year-old hurler allowed 92 hits in 96.1 innings and saw his strikeout rate drop to 7.10 K/9. His walk rate, though, held steady at 2.90 BB/9. Home runs became a bit of an issue, as Drabek allowed nine homers (0.84 HR/9). His FIP rose from 1.82 to 3.83. He’s going to need to work on his change-up to combat left-handed hitters, who performed well against him in ’09: .284 compared to right-handers at .185.

On the negative side of Drabek: He’s a little undersized at 6’0”, he’s already had a major surgery, and there have been makeup/maturity concerns.

Michael Taylor had a solid but unspectacular college career at Stanford and signed with the Phillies as a fifth-rounder in ’07. The outfielder is a good athlete for his size (6’6”, 250 lbs) and stole 21 bases in 26 tries in ’09. The right-handed hitter, who hits right-handed and left-handed pitchers equally well, began the year in double-A. There, he hit .333/.408/.569 with an ISO of .236 in 318 at-bats. He’s not a big average hitter, despite what the basic numbers suggest and he was aided by a BABIP of .361. In 110 at-bats in triple-A, Taylor hit .282/.359/.491 with an ISO of .209. He projects to be a .270-.290 hitter in the Majors with 25 homers could even produce a couple of 20-20 seasons. He consistently walks about 10% of the time and keeps the strikeouts in check for a power hitter (around 17-18%). Defensively, Taylor has a solid arm and has spent much of his time in the minors flipping between left and right field.

Travis D’Arnaud is a former highly-regarded prep draft pick. The ’07 supplemental first rounder has actually been surpassed as a prospect by his older brother Chase D’Arnaud, a shortstop who was a fourth-round pick of the Pirates out of Pepperdine University in ’08. Nonetheless, the 20-year-old catcher had a solid ’09 season in low-A ball and hit .255/.319/.419 in 482 at-bats. The right-handed hitter has some developing pop (.164 ISO) and modest strikeout rates (15.6% in ’09). His triple-slash line was hurt by a low .279 BABIP, which was down significantly from his ’08 mark of .345. D’Arnaud is a good athlete and he stole eight bases in 12 tries, but he’ll certainly slow down as the rigors of the position take its toll on his knees. Despite a strong arm, the young catcher has struggled to throw out base runners in pro ball and was successful 23% of the time in ’09.

Philadelphia Phillies’ Haul:
You certainly cannot question Phillippe Aumont’s fastball. He has a high-90s fastball and good sink but his secondary stuff is raw and he prefers to just reach back and toss heat, which is the main reason why he was moved from the starting rotation to the bullpen at such a young age. An inexperienced Canadian prep pick, Aumont was pushed aggressively by Seattle after he dominated high-A ball in a very good hitter’s league. He allowed just 24 hits in 33.1 innings and posted a strikeout rate of 9.45 K/9. Moved up to double-A, Aumont’s control suffered as his walk rate jumped from 3.24 to 5.60 BB/9. Batters also managed 21 hits in 17.2 innings, and his BABIP jumped to .436 BABIP. His strikeout rate was an impressive 12.23 K/9. Like many Canadian hurlers, there have also been injury concerns with Aumont, and he missed significant time in ’08 with elbow soreness.

You’d think it was the Phillies club that played in Canada, not the Jays. Outfielder Tyson Gillies joins Aumont as the two Canadians on the move in the Halladay deal. The 21-year-old outfielder had a breakout season in ’09 but some caution needs to be used with him. The left-handed hitter was playing in a very good hitter’s park and his overall line was .341/.430/.486. He hit .313 in ’08 but that was aided by a BABIP of .403 (His BABIP was high in ’09, as well, at .395). Gillies has a lot of speed and he stole 44 bases but was caught 19 times this past season, so he has some work to do on the base paths. On the positive side, he has solid plate rates for a speedster and he posted a walk rate of 10.8%, as well as a strikeout rate of 16.3%. Defensively, he’s considered a gifted fielder with an above-average arm.

J.C. Ramirez has posted solid pro numbers but has yet to truly breakout. The right-hander spent ’09 in high-A, while pitching in a good hitter’s park, and allowed 153 hits in 142.1 innings. His walk rate was respectable at 3.35 BB/9 and his strikeout rate was OK at 7.02, although it was down more than one strikeout per nine over his career mark. He was touched up for 18 homers (1.14 HR/9) but he held batters to a line-drive rate of just 12%. Ramirez has consistently struggled against left-handed batters in his career (.290 average, 4.32 BB/9 in ’09), so he’s going to have to develop a weapon to combat them. His repertoire includes a fastball that sits in the low-90s but can hit the mid-to-upper 90s at times. Ramirez also has a solid slider and a developing change-up.

The Brewers continue to receive a bargain bin price on Craig Counsell. Counsell, a native son of Milwaukee suburb Whitefish Bay, WI, will return to the Brewers on a 2.1 million dollar contract for 2010.

Counsell put up one of the best seasons of his 15 year career in 2009. An injury to Rickie Weeks and ineffectiveness by Bill Hall forced Counsell into nearly everyday action until the Brewers acquired Felipe Lopez in late July. In 459 PAs, Counsell posted a .336 wOBA and a 107 wRC+, his first above average season since 2001.

Of course, players in their late 30s don’t typically have career seasons without some luck involved, and Counsell will turn 40 in August. Much of Counsell’s productivity came from a .321 BABIP, and so despite a six percent drop in walk rate, his on-base percentage still was over .350. His .124 ISO, the highest mark of his career, suggests an increase in power, which is possible given that Counsell changed some facets of his approach – most notably, his signature crazy batting stance is now much more normal.

Counsell will likely regress offensively, and any team with intent to sign him knew this. What is attractive about Counsell is his prowess with the glove. Counsell continued to defy age as he posted a 6.4 UZR between 2B, 3B, and SS, and was average or better at each. His UZR has never been below average in his career, and it would be remiss to expect a sudden drop in fielding at this point in his career, as he has shown no signs of decline whatsoever.

Counsell is not the 3 win player that last year suggests. However, as an extremely versatile defender who can step into any non-1B infield role and produce at a 1.5-2.5 win per 600 PA level, Counsell is well worth the 2.1 million dollar contract that he signed for.

As it turns out, Cliff Lee’s tour and demolition of the National League will be put on hold, at least through the 2010 season. If the blockbuster involving Roy Halladay, the Phillies, and the Mariners occurs, Lee is rumored to be on the move for the second time in six months, this time to the Pacific Northwest.

Seattle has no shortage of mid– and back-end starters currently piled behind Felix Hernandez in their rotation. Brandon Morrow has some potential, as do Ryan Rowland-Smith and Ian Snell, but pitchers like Doug Fister and Jason Vargas are what you think they are. Unlike the failed Erik Bedard experiment, which was doomed thanks to injuries, Lee has thrown more than 200 innings in four of his last five seasons. His xFIP over the last two seasons have been 3.57 and 3.69, his groundball rate has sat above 40% while his fly balls are below 40%, and oh yeah, he’s left-handed.

Lee throws a variety of pitches. A four and two-seamer, neither of which gets much in the way of whiffs but both are thrown nearly 70% of the time for strikes. A change-up that misses bats and hits the zone, a slider which does the same, and a lesser used curve that – you guessed it – follows a similar pattern. Lee throws strikes and walks few. His modest strikeout rates are boosted by such efficiency and a move back to the American League means he probably won’t post a 3.2 xFIP moving forward, but his ERA should shine in front of the Seattle defense and in Safeco.

We aren’t sure exactly what Seattle will give up yet. Hopefully we find out soon enough. What we do know is that Lee has posted back-to-back seasons with more than 6 WAR and seems destined to repeat once more barring injury. The Fans currently have Lee at 6.1 WAR, and you can contribute your vote (if you haven’t already) by clicking here.

Earlier today, the Boston Red Sox signed John Lackey to a big contract. The act was taken as a signal that Theo Epstein and crew had moved on from signing Jason Bay. Word later arrived that they were no longer chasing Matt Holliday. Naturally this lead to questions. Mostly, “Well, who the heck plays left field?” Tonight, Boston answered that question by signing Mike Cameron to a two-year deal, reportedly worth roughly $15.5M.

Dave actually covered the Cameron versus Bay angle here, surmising that Cameron, not Bay, was the better alternative to Holliday. Their games differ greatly, and this isn’t going to be a rehashing of that post, but no matter where Boston chooses to play Cameron, he’s going to upgrade their defense immensely. The most ridiculous aspect of this deal is the contract. Last season, Cameron made $10M, the season before he made over $6M, and in the three years prior over $7M. The Red Sox, a team with the ability to overpay, just got him for an annual average cost under $8M. Over the last few years his free agent value has averaged more than $14M. So yeah, I’d say the Sox are getting their money’s worth on paper.

UZR paints a fuzzy picture of Jacoby Ellsbury’s defensive talents. One that’s not entirely reliable. Most scouting reports suggest Ellsbury has above-average speed and range and the Fans Scouting Report seemed to support those notions. Nevertheless, Cameron has been and probably will be superior next season. Boston’s choice is now whether to shift the youngster to left or put the veteran out to learn the Monster. They must also decide whether they want Jeremy Hermida to platoon with Cameron, and face paying a hefty price for a few hundred plate appearances.

A couple hours after reports surfaced stating the John Lackey was taking a physical with the Boston Red Sox, the rumors are now saying that a contract has been reached between the two. Jon Heyman writes that it’s a five-year deal worth $85 million.

As a fan of a team (the Mariners) linked to just about every free agent on the market, and in particular to John Lackey, I’ve been skeptical of his value all winter long. There are two main red flags that I have when it comes to Lackey.

First is health. Profiled as a top of the rotation arm, Lackey has made just 51 starts the last two seasons, averaging 170 innings. Before that he was more durable sure, but on the wrong side of 30, I lean more toward recent history than past when it comes to injury risk.

Second comes with Lackey’s pitch results. More of his pitches have been resulting in balls lately and dropping rates in finding the strike zone and in starting hitters off with a strike portend a rise in the amount of walks that he allows, long his strong suit. More worrisome to me is this: 10.2%, 9.7%, 8.8%, 8.5%, 8.3%. Those are Lackey’s swinging strike rates from 2005 to 2009 in chronological order. That is a downward trend and not a subtle one either. In other words, projecting Lackey, I’d expect slightly more walks and considerably fewer strikeouts.

John Lackey’s tRAs have ranged from 3.7 to 3.9 to 5.5 and back down to 4.5 over the last four seasons, a difficult path to project. His xFIPs (and tRA*s) on the other hand, regressing his fluctuating home run rates, peg Lackey at a consistent 4.1, 4.0, 3.9, 3.9 from 2006 through 2009. That’s a much easier trend to deal with.

That trend, with the other information above leads me to think that Lackey is about a 4.1-4.2 FIP pitcher going forward. CHONE’s projection agrees mostly, seeing Lackey at a 4.1 FIP and 186 innings. That amount of production is worth about 3.2 wins, roughly a little less than Lackey’s 2007-9 average on a 5/4/3 weight, reasonable for an aging pitcher.

You cannot assume Lackey holds on that 3.2 WAR level either and over five years, you’re probably looking at a total expected contribution of three wins per year, or 15 wins in total. At the slightly depressed market value for wins and with the long term contract discount, a roughly fair number for Lackey at five years would be about $60 million.

Now, as Dave Cameron brought up a few days ago, not every team should pay the same rate for wins. The Red Sox are in a similar position as the Rays wherein each additional win means more to them. Also, they’re a super high budget team with the resources to offer more money per win. Even still, this looks like a vast overpay in terms of annual value. And possibly worse than that is guaranteeing five years to a pitcher, much less for his age 31-35 seasons.

Gabe Gross was non-tendered by the Rays this weekend. It’s old hat to write this, but it is a testament to Tampa Bay’s depth that non-tendering a player of Gross’s quality is the correct move for the organization. With Matt Joyce ready to go at least as a platoon partner for the re-signed Gabe Kapler, and Ben Zobrist and Sean Rodriguez perhaps also in line for time in the outfield, there was no point for a team on Tampa Bay’s budget to go to arbitration with yet another outfielder. Gross still has his uses, however.

Gross had a miserable 2009 at the plate, posting a .306 wOBA after two consecutive years of above-average .332. But we shouldn’t get hung up on one season of data. For 2010, CHONE projects Gross as a .243/.342/.393 hitter, exactly average in context-neutral linear weights. ZiPS is very close, projecting Gross for .237/.330/.397, which I translate to two runs below average per 150 games. My own projection for Gross is slightly more optimistic at .246/.346/.409, or +3/150. Taken together, Gross projects as a roughly league-average hitter in 2010.

Being a league-average hitter usually doesn’t bode well for a corner outfielder, but Gross’s calling card isn’t his bat, it’s his glove. Gross has an extremely impressive career +17.6 UZR/150 in right field. Projecting fielding, especially in the outfield, calls for a great deal of regression. Even so, Jeff Zimmerman’s regressed and age-adjusted UZR/150 projection for Gross in RF is +9. CHONE’s Totalzone projection for Gross in the outfield is +4. The 2009 Fans Scouting Report is also positive about Gross’s defense, having him at +6 runs on my translation. Averaging CHONE and Zimmerman’s projections, let’s put Gross at +7 as a fielder.

After adjusting for position, Gross projects as a 2 WAR (roughly league average) player over 150 games. While we should also take into account that his offensive projections are a bit skewed by Gross having been platooned the last few years, keep in mind that (1) splits regress, and (2) Gross’s decreased offensive output if he did have to face lefties would also be offset because (especially taking his glove into account) he wouldn’t necessarily be below replacement level in those situations. Whether he’s platooned or not, then, 1.5-2 WAR seems like a fair and modest projection for Gross. Despite his 2009, it’s hardly out of line with the past, given that Gross put up 2.4 WAR in only 399 PA in 2008 and 2.0 WAR in 252 PA in 2006.

As noted above, the Rays made the right call in non-tendering Gabe Gross. Still, 1.5-2 WAR outfielders don’t grow on trees. It may seem like they do, given the non-tendering of Gross, Kelly Johnson, Ryan Church, Ryan Langerhans (sigh), and others. All of these players could be useful in a stopgap or platoon role on the right team. Gabe Gross should and will latch on somewhere. In the words of resident Rays’ fan R. J., “Hopefully he finds a nice owner with a big yard and a short porch in right.”

How well do you think Gross will perform in 2010? Enter your Fan Projection here.