One might be tempted to see the Royals’ signing of outfielder Scott Podsednik as a move to steal the headlines in the wake of cross-state rival St. Louis’ big Matt Holliday contract earlier this week. Or maybe they just wanted to sneak in the bad news on Friday. Close observers, however, know better. This is all part of The Contest.

I’m not exactly sure what the goal of The Contest is: to put together a team that might contend in 2005, get fired, or to shatter the blogosphere’s Universal Snark-O-Meter in one fell blow, but it’s been apparent for some time now that Royals General Manager Dayton Moore and his Mets counterpart Omar Minaya have been involved in some sort of bizarre rivalry for at least the last year. It’s been a real back-and-forth (forgive the shaky chronology):

* Dayton acquires Mike Jacobs, Kyle Farnsworth, Horacio Ramirez, and Willie Bloomquist as part of a misguided attempt to contend.

* Omar responds by giving Oliver Perez three years and $36 million (aka, “The Jose Guillen Special”).

* The same week that the Royals trade prospects for Yuniesky Betancourt, the Mets trade Ryan Church for Jeff Francoeur (the latter must really have burned Dayton up inside).

* Omar accuses a reporter critical of a fired Mets official of gunning for a job with the Mets.

* In the midst of a near 100-loss season, Dayton lectures Royals fans on their lust for instant gratification and admonishes them to “trust the process.”

* Dayton understandably allows two below-average catchers to walk (Miguel Olivo and John Buck), but then signs Zombie Jason Kendall for more than either Olivo or Buck get on the open market.

* Omar, bidding against himself, manages to overpay Jason Bay by at least $15-$20 million.

It was obviously Dayton’s time to shine. And shine he did.

The terms of the deal haven’t been made public yet (to my knowledge). But what kind of player is the 34-year-old Podsednik at this point?

CHONE has Podsednik projected for a context-neutral .271/.333/.367, 9 runs below average per 150 games. My own projection is .269/.324/.384, -8/150. Defensively, CHONE’s TotalZone projection is +4 in left field (Podsednik’s primary position the last few seasons) per 150 games. Jeff Zimmerman has him at -2. My projection includes basestealing (in short: he steals a lot, but gets caught too much to be worth it), but as far as his baserunning goes otherwise, he’s average at best at this point.

Per 150 games (which Podsednik hasn’t played since 2004): let’s call it +1 defense, -7 prorated positional adjustment for left field, -9 offense + 20 replacement level = 0.5 WAR player. Fans have so far projected Podsednik at 0.2 WAR for 2010.

I haven’t seen the terms of the deal yet. I’ve heard rumors or one year, one million dollars, and even at $3.5 million per marginal win, at 0.5 WAR, that’s sort of reasonable… sounding.

Except that it’s still a terrible decision. Let’s put it this way: the Royals aren’t exactly at a point at which they should be spending more for a marginal win — they are one of the worst teams in the American League. It’s a slight bargain at best, and assuming (perhaps foolishly) that Moore didn’t spring for more than one year, a player with this sort of projection needs to have some upside, and Podsednik is 34 years old.

Moreover, what does this mean in relation to opportunity cost? Podsednik is 34 years old and his primary position the last few years is left field. Of course, one of the few above-average position players the Royals have is their current left fielder David DeJesus, probably a 2.5-3.0 WAR player in 2010. DeJesus is good enough defensively that he could probably be at least adequate in center (certainly better than Podsednik), but his arm (despite 2009’s impressive statistical showing in left) won’t play in right. Podsednik doesn’t have the arm for right, either… which leaves center field, something Dayton Moore has repeatedly hinted at with his talk of “speedy center fielder” (roles!) all offseason.

Leaving aside the reality that Podsednik is at best barely above average defensively in left field, thus implying a disaster in center field (where he last played full-time in 2004), the Royals already have two center fielders on the roster. One is the recently signed replacement-level Brian Anderson (Moore is apparently adding former White Sox to his palette of former Braves and Mariners). Anderson, at least, is young-ish enough to have some upside, although why Moore felt he had to give Anderson a major-league deal worth $0.7M with performance incentives is beyond me. Even worse, the Royals have Mitch Maier. Maier is nothing special — he’s probably a good fourth outfielder at best — a 1.0-1.5 WAR player. But he’s 28, at the minimum, and the Royals aren’t contending (even for .500) in 2010: this is the year to play Maier and see what he’s got and save a bit of cash. But Dayton has other ideas.

Even if Maier wasn’t around, Podsednik isn’t close to good enough to be an Iwamura-type “let’s at least have someone respectable out there” — in that case, there are still far superior players like FanGraphs-favorites Ryan Church and Gabe Gross available, and the market shows that superior players to Podsednik, such as Langerhans, are going for less than Brian Anderson money.

I could go on, but you get the picture: this deal makes no sense… unless you know about The Contest.

Your move, Omar.

[Update: As pointed out in the comments, I completely negleted to factor in Dayton’s brilliant ‘banning’ of Rany Jazayerli for criticizing the Royals’ medical staff. I apologize for the embarrassing oversight on my part. This really puts Omar behind… how many years and millions to Bengie Molina is it going to take for him to catch up?]

John Olerud is likely one of a multitude of players that doesn’t pass the “feel test” for the Hall of Fame. He only made two all-star games, never won an MVP, and never even won a silver slugger. He didn’t have blazing speed and he played the position of statues, first base.

He wasn’t a power hitter – only 255 HR and 1,230 RBIs, out of the top 100 career in both categories. He did hit .295 for his career, but in 7,592 ABs that doesn’t even crack 2,500 hits, much less 3,000. Especially for somebody who didn’t watch all of his games, like most of the writers who will determine his Hall fate, that resume doesn’t impress.

For those reasons, John Olerud will almost certainly never receive the call to Cooperstown. With a player like Fred McGriff only receiving 21.5% of the vote, it’s possible that Olerud may slip off the ballot after only one year. Personally, if I was given a vote, I would support John Olerud’s Hall of Fame candidacy.

Admittedly, he is a bit of a borderline candidate. He only played 17 seasons and he didn’t flash power at first base. He was still a tremendous batter. His .398 OBP ranks 65th all time, right around guys like Joe DiMaggio and Johnny Mize. He maintained this throughout his entire career – Olerud had six seasons at or above a .400 OBP and even in the twilight of his career he only posted one season below .350. He walked 504 more times than he struck out, including IBB and HBP.

Olerud did also have power potential, as he supplemented his 255 HRs with 500 doubles. Overall, his career wOBA was .376 in an era where the average wOBA ranged from .330 to .345. Adjusting for the fact that he played in Toronto (slight pitcher’s park) and Seattle (major pitcher’s park) most of his career, Olerud posted a 133 wRC+ for his career. Over 17 years and slightly fewer than 9000 plate appearances, he produced 33% more runs than the average batter. This includes his insane 1993 with the World Series champion Blue Jays, where he hit .363/.473/.599 for a 181 wRC+ and his 1998 with the New York Mets where he hit .354/.447/.521 for a 168 wRC+. In both seasons, Olerud was worth over 8.0 WAR.

Still, that kind of performance would be forgettable if Olerud were even an average defensive first baseman. The position adjustment that we use for wins above replacement is harsh on first basemen for a reason – even an elite defensive 1B usually doesn’t provide as much value as the average fielder. That’s why many people didn’t support Jim Rice’s Hall of Fame candidacy – his career 132 wRC+ is impressive, but combined with poor defense in left field, he becomes merely a very good player, and not a great one.

Olerud was a four-time gold glover, and TotalZone supports his reputation. Between range and turning double plays, Olerud was worth 97 runs above average with the glove. That doesn’t cancel out the position adjustment entirely, but Olerud’s slick fielding at first base still provided his teams with value. Olerud provided more through his defense than average or slightly above average corner outfielders and below average fielding 2Bs and 3Bs.

Olerud wasn’t a good baserunner, but this is the only part of the game where he didn’t excel. His running did cost him nearly 50 runs in value over his career, but over 17 years that adds up to only about .3 wins per season. It does hamper his case, but it certainly doesn’t kill it. By no means can it outweigh the fact that he was one of the great batters of our generation as well as a fantastic fielder at his position.

Read the rest of this entry »

Today, we take a look at three of the top free agents left on the market now that the Jason Bay and Matt Holliday sweepstakes are over. These three are Felipe Lopez, Ben Sheets, and Johnny Damon.

Lopez is arguably the best second baseman left on the market, and is definitely the best available second baseman in terms of 2009 numbers. Lopez posted 4.6 wins in split time between Arizona and Milwaukee in last year.

Sheets missed all of 2009 with an elbow injury. In 2008, he posted 4.4 wins and has only posted less than 3 wins once in his career.

Damon had a memorable postseason with the Yankees, but barring the unexpected, he will have to find a new home. He’s been relatively consistent, with all of his last 4 seasons falling within the 2.3-3.6 WAR range.

Starting Pitchers (Min IP: 100)

The Best:
Kerry Wood 66%
Brandon Webb 69.8%
Pedro Martinez 70.4%
Randy Johnson 71.3%
Matt Clement 71.6%

2003 was nearly a special season for the Cubs. Mark Prior and Wood carried the team to the cusp of a World Series appearance, but in the end fell just shy. Wood had dealt with durability questions before, but 2003 was his second consecutive 200+ inning season. In those two seasons he totaled a little over 420 innings, he’s thrown 371 since. His slider held a run value of 2.33 per 100 thrown, a career best amongst seasons where he pitched more than 100 innings.

Webb is the other non-repeating name on the list. 2003 was his first season in the Majors and he posted his best K/9 to date. Webb was and still is a groundball-generating maven, but let this be a reminder that pitchers won’t always improve on their strikeout rate after their rookie season. To make up for it, Webb began walking fewer batters and posting only somewhat lower K rates.

The Worst:
Kirk Rueter 91.7%
Nate Cornejo 90.2%
Ismael Valdez 89.1%
Rick Reed 88.7%
Danny Graves 87.9%

There’s our old friend Rueter again. Believe it or not, he’ll appear with a 90+% contact rate once more before this series is over. Cornejo is a tall righty from Kansas with an average fastball of 87.5 MPH. As it turns out, his secondary stuff didn’t fare much better in the majors, and his fastball actually did post an above average run value. Batters never chased Cornejo’s pitches out of the zone (career 15.3% O-Swing) and never missed when they swung at a pitch in the zone. That’s a recipe for disaster.

Relief Pitchers (Min IP: 40)

The Best:
Eric Gagne 56%
Jose Valverde 62.3%
Scott Williamson 65.6%
Tom Gordon 67.2%
Rafael Soriano 67.3%

Yes, Gagne was that less hittable than any other reliever in baseball in 2003. This was the stuff of Gordon’s last hurray. He’s yet to post a contact rate sub-70% since and he held up well enough for the White Sox to be rewarded with a few years of setting up Mariano Rivera.

The Worst:
Paul Quantrill 88.1%
Matt Roney 87.8%
Chad Zerbe 87.7%
Julian Tavarez 86.3%
Graeme Lloyd 86.3%

Quantrill survived by getting groundballs. He was a high-leverage reliever still, and actually was worth 1.5 WAR for the Dodgers. The next season he headed to the Yankees and had similar success. His last Major League season was 2005 even though it seems like just yesterday.

My friend Danny and I have harbored the notion over the last year or so that no single baseball player looks more baseball-y than Oakland outfielder Ryan Sweeney. Sweeney is 6-foot-4, muscular in a lean way, and is conspicuously in possession of what the scouting community refers to as “long levers.” And while I’m no expert on the subject, I’m almost positive that he has The Good Face, too. He is, essentially, a jeans model.

And here’s the thing about jeans models in baseball: we’ve been trained to be suspicious of them. Moneyball — a.k.a. the reason that many of us were called to sabermetrics — trained us to be suspicious*. The draft room scene in which Billy Beane and his nerd sidekick Paul DePodesta are forced to defend the relative merits of bad body catcher Jeremy Brown to the Old Scouts — that scene drew up the battle lines between old and new quite effectively (if a little dramatically). And Beane repeats multiple times in that scene the line that became a veritable mantra for sabermetricians in the early Aughts: “We’re not selling jeans here.”

*Mr. Dave Cameron discussed a similar point recently.

The thing about Sweeney is, regardless of how well he’d do selling jeans, he was more than just a decent player last year. You might be surprised to learn that he was, in fact, a four-win player last year, just below Kendry Morales — 46th out of 154 qualified batters — on the FanGraphs leaderboard for WAR. True, his offense is no great shakes for a right fielder, a fact to which his 104 wRC+ can attest. But defensively — defensively, he appears to have been magical. Regress it however much you want: a 15.5 UZR in only 600 innings is excellent. And it’s totally in line with his 2008 performance, during which he was worth 11.3 runs above average in 487 right-field innings. Overall, for his career, Sweeney has a 30.7 UZR/150 in right with a bit over 1100 innings of play afield.

Our understanding of Sweeney’s value — especially his defensive value — is indicative of a trend in baseball of which you, as a FanGraphs reader, are almost entirely aware — a trend towards run prevention. Certainly, MGL’s UZR metric — which I’m led to believe was referenced on ESPN the other day — has been an important part of that. So, too, Sean Smith’s TotalZone and Tango’s Fan Scouting Reports and John Dewan’s Fielding Bible. Being able to quantify defensive runs has allowed to see certain players in a new light.

What’s interesting about many of these players is that, beyond being toolsy as frig, they’re also what Beane would describe as jeans models. This phenomenon hasn’t gone unnoticed by the editors of Lookout Landing, for example, who’ve settled on a tagline in praise of Franklin Gutierrez: “Our Center Fielder Is Better And/Or More Attractive In A Sexual Way Than Yours.” Gutierrez is essentially the poster boy for this new understanding of defensive value, and he, like Sweeney, has the sort of tools that would — and probably did, when he was younger — enamor scouts.

Of course, the dramatic coincidence here (note: it’s not irony — but we’ll save that discussion for another day), is that Sweeney the Jeans Model plays for Billy Beane, the man who more or less trained us to look past tools (which we maybe conflated, mistakenly, with ignoring tools altogether). And physically, Sweeney and Beane are quite similar. Sweeney’s Baseball Reference page lists him at 6-foot-4, 200 pounds. Beane? Well, I don’t know from which point in his career it’s taken, but his specs are almost identical: 6-foot-4, 195 pounds.

So what’s the lesson here? The same as always, I guess, just in different words. Use all the information you have. Always try to get better information. Don’t be afraid to change your mind if the information suggests you ought to. As the great sabermetrician Ralph Waldo Emerson says:

Speak what you think now in hard words, and to-morrow speak what to-morrow thinks in hard words again, though it contradict every thing you said to-day.

To the max, Ralph Waldo. To the max.

General Manager: Frank Wren
Farm Director: Kurt Kemp
Scouting Director: Tony DeMacio

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

The Braves organization is not churning out the pitching prospects like it once did, but there are some interesting power arms in the system. The club has had some problems with injuries amongst its young pitchers, especially recent draft picks, which is a little worrisome. The two bats at the top of the Top 10 list have a chance to be impact bats – especially Heyward. He could be an absolute monster at the plate. Many of the prospects on the Top 10 list are still a few years away.

1. Jason Heyward, OF, Triple-A
DOB: August 1989 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 1st round – Georgia HS
MLB ETA: Early-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

I loved Heyward on draft day in ’07 and I like him even more now. Despite being drafted out of high school, he’s flown through the system and reached triple-A in ’09 at the age of 20. He began the year in high-A where he hit .296/.369/.519 in 189 at-bats. Heyward then moved up to double-A and produced a line of .352/.446/.611 in 162 at-bats. His season ended with three games in triple-A. The outfielder showed outstanding power with an ISO rate of .222 in high-A and .259 in double-A. He also displayed the potential to provide five to 10 steals and Heyward had a double-digit walk rate, which topped out at 14.7% in double-A. His BB/K rate of 1.47 at that same level was outstanding. There are few holes in his game. Heyward’s durability is currently surrounded by question marks after be was dogged by minor injuries during the season and in the Arizona Fall League.

2. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Double-A
DOB: September 1989 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2007 2nd round – California HS
MLB ETA: Late-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Freeman’s season began very well in high-A when he .302/.394/.447 in 255 at-bats. The first baseman found the going much tougher in double-A and he hit just .248/.308/.342 in 149 at-bats. His power also dropped with his ISO rate going from .145 to .094. Even at its peak last season, Freeman’s power output was below-average for an impact first baseman, but he projects as a 20-homer guy — not a true slugger. One reason for his poor numbers in double-A was the drop in BABIP, from .341 to .273; he was also playing with a hand injury. On the positive side, his strikeout rate actually dropped from 16.1 to 12.8%, so he wasn’t completely over-matched. He’ll head back to double-A in 2010.

3. Julio Teheran, RHP, Low-A
DOB: January 1991 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Colombia)
MLB ETA: Early-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

There is no question that Teheran has the stuff to be a dominating starter in the Majors, but his durability is in question, as he’s been slowed by shoulder soreness. He made just 14 starts in ’09 and he split the year between rookie ball and low-A ball. At the senior level, Teheran posted a 3.68 FIP and allowed 42 hits in 37.2 innings. He showed good control with a walk rate of 2.63 BB/9 but his strikeout rate was just 6.69 K/9. The right-hander has a good change-up but his breaking ball still needs work, which is one of the reasons for the low strikeout rate. Teheran is loaded with potential but he’s just 18 years old and will likely develop slowly, especially with the organization being cautious with his health.

4. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Short-Season
DOB: November 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-95 mph, plus curveball, change-up

Vizcaino had a very impressive season as a teenager in short-season ball. He missed a lot of bats with a strikeout rate of 11.06 K/9 and he kept the walks in check at 3.19 BB/9. In 42.1 innings, Vizcaino allowed just 34 hits and two homers (0.43 HR/9). His ground-ball rate improved 10% over his debut season in ’08 to 48%, which is a positive trend that will hopefully continue in 2010. If he reaches his potential, Vizcaino has the stuff to be a front-line starter… but he’s also a ways away from the Majors. He was the key player acquired recently in the Javier Vazquez deal with the Yankees.

5. Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Triple-A
DOB: May 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 3rd round – Wallace State CC
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 91-95 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Kimbrel has flown through the system since signing in ’08. The right-handed reliever has posted outstanding strikeout rates throughout the minors, including 17.10 K/9 in 20.0 low-A innings and 15.38 K/9 in 26.1 high-A innings, both in 2009. His control, though, has been more spotty. Kimbrel posted a walk rate of 2.70 BB/9 in low-A but it rose to 9.57 BB/9 in high-A. He also pitched 11.2 innings in double-A and walked seven batters with 17 Ks. Overall on the year, he allowed 30 hits, 45 walks and struck out 103 batters in 60.0 innings. Kimbrel needs to sharpen his control before reaching the Majors, but he has closer potential with a blazing fastball and good slider.

6. Randall Delgado, RHP, Low-A
DOB: February 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Panama)
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 91-95 mph fastball, plus curveball, change-up

Another good arm, Delgado proved his durability in ’09 by making 25 starts in low-A ball. He allowed 123 hits in 124.0 innings and posted a FIP of 3.20. He also showed a consistent ability to miss bats with his good fastball and he posted a strikeout rate of 10.23 K/9. His control was OK, especially given his experience level, and he had a walk rate of 3.56 BB/9. Delgado also did a nice job of keeping the ball in the park (0.65 HR/9). He was particularly effective against left-handed hitters, who managed to produce an average of just .225 against him. He also posted a strikeout rate of 10.92 K/9 against them, compared to 8.87 K/9 against right-handed batters.

7. Ezekiel Spruill, RHP, Low-A
DOB: September 1989 Bats: B Throws: R
Signed: 2008 2nd round – Georgia HS
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Spruill had a nice first season out of rookie ball with a 3.37 FIP in low-A. He was a little too hittable, though, and he allowed 120 hits in 116.0 innings. Spruill is always around the strike zone, though, and the hitters in the low minors tend to be free swingers. He showed outstanding control with a walk rate of 1.86 BB/9. The right-hander backed that up with a strikeout rate of 7.37 K/9. He also posted an outstanding ground-ball rate just shy of 57% on the year. Spruill’s stuff is more solid than electric and he projects to be a No. 3 starter in the Majors.

8. Christian Bethancourt, C, Rookie
DOB: September 1991 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 non-drafted international free agent (Panama)
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Bethancourt had a solid debut season in the low minors. In rookie ball, he hit .275/.340/.443 in 166 at-bats. The right-handed hitter did struggle against left-handed pitchers and he posted an OPS of just .577. For a teenager, Bethancourt showed a good eye at the plate and intriguing raw power. He’s known as a good leader behind the plate and he also has promising arm strength, as he threw out 30% of base stealers in ’09. He’ll likely move up to low-A in 2010, where he’ll be one of the youngest players in the league.

9. Cody Johnson, OF, High-A
DOB: August 1988 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2006 1st round – Florida HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

People seem to either love or hate Johnson as a prospect. Just 21, he slugged 32 homers last year, and has gone deep 58 times over the last two seasons. However, his strikeout rate actually rose from his 37.8% mark in ’08 to 40.6% in ’09 as he moved up from low-A to high-A. On the plus side, his walk rate also rose, from 7.9% to 13.2%. Johnson will need to tone down his swing if he’s going to succeed even in double-A, but he’d still have above-average power if he swung with one hand tied behind his back. With a .242 batting average in high-A, he’ll likely struggle to hit even .220 in 2010 if he doesn’t make some adjustments. At this point, he’s a long shot to be an impact player in the Majors but he’s fun to follow.

10. Adam Milligan, OF, High-A
DOB: March 1988 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 6th round – Walters State CC
MLB ETA: Late-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Milligan did not get into game action after signing in ’08 so ’09 represented his debut season. The outfielder had an outstanding season while spending the majority of the season in low-A where he hit .345/.393/.589 in 197 at-bats. He also posted an ISO of .244 but he was raw on the base paths and got caught five times in nine attempts. The left-handed hitter did OK against southpaws, but he still posted much better numbers against right-handers (.870 vs 1.013 OPS on the year). His walk rate was low at 5.7% but his strikeout rate was OK at 21.8% given his power output. Milligan received a taste of High-A ball and he should return there in 2010. With just 256 pro at-bats, we still don’t no exactly what this intriguing prospect has to offer.

Up Next: Tampa Bay Rays

The Mariners traded for Casey Kotchman and he will regain a full-time role there after playing just part-time in Boston. As Dave Cameron noted, this might be his last opportunity to show that he can hit enough to be a full-time MLB first basemen. That is not to say that he is ever going to be a big-slugging first baseman — even 20 HRs seems like a stretch — but maybe he can have doubles power and post a high enough BABIP to be an asset at the plate.

That was the case in 2007 when 37 doubles and a .308 BABIP coupled with his always good contact skills and plate discipline (over his career he has only slightly more strikeouts than walks) resulted in a solid 121 wRC+. Since then he has posted wRC+s in the 90s. Not bad, but not what you expect from a player at a position near the bottom of the defensive spectrum.

The problem has been with his balls in play, as both his ISO and BABIP have fallen since 2007. To dig deeper into the cause of this drop I wanted to look at his balls in play.

I use the same technique I introduced in my Garrett Atkins post, by breaking the field in ten zones and looking at the number of non-ground balls to each zone and the slugging on those balls (in the Atkins post I used BABIP, but here I use slugging). The first zone is the infield, and after that each ring is 100 feet from the pervious. So the three zones after the infield include balls in the air less than 100 feet beyond the infield-grass line. The number in each zone is the fraction of balls in the air to that zone. The color shows the slugging percentage on balls hit in the air in that zone. The lightest color (the infield for example) has a slugging of zero, and the darkest color (deep right field) has a slugging of about 2.5, so balls in the air to that zone result in a little bit more than a double, on average.

Clearly, Kotchman’s power is to to right field, as is typical for a LHB. But in 2007 he hit more balls, and with better results, to center field. The other major difference is in the number of balls in the air to the infield; he has had many more since 2007. These pop-ups are effectively automatic outs. Another slight difference is on the slugging on balls to left field just beyond the infield. In 2007, that was 0.778; but since, just 0.240. These are most likely bloop singles, and this difference is most likely just luck.

So the big differences are more power to center, a few more lucky bloop singles to left and fewer pop-ups in 2007. Whether he can regain 2007 is still an open question, but I think it is interesting to see that the performance in 2007 was a mix of performance (less pop-ups and more long hits to center) and luck (bloop singles). A last consideration is that, as Dave noted, Kotchman will be aided by the short right field walls in Safeco, where he hits a large proportion of his long flies.

The terror was palpable among intelligent Minnesota baseball fans yesterday as reports surfaced that the roster spot opened by Bobby Keppel’s departure to Japan would be filled via a signing of Jarrod Washburn. That roster spot will instead be filled by 34-year-old reliever Clay Condrey. For the moment, Twins fans can breathe a sigh of relief.

The Detroit Tigers learned last August and September what many of us, including Jack Zduriencik, already knew: Jarrod Washburn is not an ace. Despite his 2.64 ERA through July, Washburn tanked with Detroit, posting a 1-3 record with a 7.33 ERA and 7.00 FIP.

Now, of course, neither his partial season with Detroit nor his brilliant start with Seattle are indicative of his true talent. Put the two together, and you get something much closer, as Washburn’s final line resulted in a 4.58 FIP and a 4.79 tERA, and that’s with his lowest walk rate since 2004.

Given that Washburn will turn 36 in 2010, it’s not likely that he improves upon those total numbers, especially with the lack of exceptional defenders in the Twins’ outfield. As an extreme fly ball pitcher, Washburn is likely to give up an above average number of home runs, and without defenders to make to turn deep fly balls into outs, he will also give up an above average number of extra base hits.

That said, Washburn isn’t nearly as terrible a pitcher as some would make him out to be. He probably tops out at a 4.50 FIP, and a standard projection will place him in the 4.60-4.90 FIP range, which nears 2 WAR value in 170 innings pitched. A fair one year contract for Washburn would probably come in at about 7-9 million dollars.

However, in the case of Minnesota, it just wouldn’t make sense to dedicate that amount of resources. Even without considering the fact that their defense wouldn’t leverage Washburn’s skills at all, the increase over Francisco Liriano, Carl Pavano, or Brian Duensing probably doesn’t eclipse one half of a win. As such, Minnesota would only be realizing about 2 million dollars worth of value on their 7+ million dollar investment.

Clay Condrey isn’t a terribly useful piece. CHONE projects him for all of one run above replacement. However, Condrey is probably going to receive the minimum if the deal is even guaranteed. As such, this move won’t dent the Twins’ financial ability to fill their need at either 2B or 3B, where the player acquired will actually be replacing a replacement level player.

Of course, there is still time, Bill Smith. I’m not stopping you.

Today’s projection targets include a slick-fielding outfielder with a problematic bat, a legendary master of the strike zone, and a Cubs pitcher.

Austin Kearns was signed to a minor-league deal by Cleveland earlier this week. Although his bat has been less than stellar the last few seasons, his skills in the field are what keep teams interested. What will his role be in Cleveland, and how will he perform?

Perhaps tired haggling with Yorvit Torrealbea, the Rockies went out and signed hacktastic purveyor of passed balls Miguel Olivo to back up Chris Ianetta in Colorado. How much will Olivo play, and was the power he flashed in 2009 sustainable (particularly in his new run environment) given his plate “discipline?”

Last off-season, Ryan Dempster received a 4 year, $52 million dollar contract, and promptly went out in 2009 and proved to be worth it. Surprisingly, as I’m typing this, he hasn’t reached the projection threshold. Will his success in 2009 continue in 2010?

Click here to enter your 2010 projections for Kearns, Olivo, and Dempster.

Starting Pitchers (Min IP: 100)

The Best:
Randy Johnson 66.1%
Matt Clement 68.4%
Pedro Martinez 70.2%
A.J. Burnett 72%
Curt Schilling 72%

Fitting how the Big Unit tops out as the least hittable starter of 2002. A future Hall of Famer is joined by two others – Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling – who are flanked by two (at the time) high-upside young arms who spent time with the Florida Marlins.

Burnett’s inclusion is expected. During this season his average velocity was a tick shy of 95 MPH and he leaned heavily on his heater and curve. In many ways, 2002 was also the breakout season for Burnett as he posted his first FIP under 4 and began flashing scintillating strikeout ability.

Clement is the odd man here. He never threw hard and at the time his supporting arsenal existed of a slider and little else. Clement’s fastball had movement, though, and as such he generated a good number of groundballs. Not only was 2002 the breakout year of Clement’s career but also a career-best season when judged by FIP.

The Worst:
Kirk Rueter 88.6%
Aaron Sele 88.3%
Ismael Valdez 86.3%
Scott Erickson 86.1%
Esteban Loaiza 85.9%

And on the opposite end of the stuff spectrum is Rueter. He pitched until 2005 and those four seasons of velocity information result in an average fastball velocity of 84.7 MPH. Give Rueter credit for throwing the pitch nearly 80% of the time yet somehow posting a 3.23 ERA over 203 innings. While you’re at it, give credit to that Giants defense and ballpark, too.

This was the season before Loaiza exploded back onto the scene with the White Sox, in large part thanks to learning a cutter that helped extend his career.

Relief Pitchers (Min IP: 40)

The Best:
Eric Gagne 61.5%
Dave Coggin 63.1%
Ugueth Urbina 64.2%
Luis Vizcaino 65.4%
Scott Williamson 65.8%

Much like the presence of Johnson and Pedro, Gagne topping the list should surprise no one. It’s almost hard to believe so much time has passed since Gagne became one of the Dodgers’ biggest attractions. Between the goggles, the Guns N’ Roses entrance music, and Game Over shirts, Gagne-mania mimicked the Hollywood adoration of closers. Gagne’s flame-throwing ways and story of triumph fit right in.

2002 remains Coggin’s shining moment, as he missed most of 2003 and never returned to the Majors. 2007 appears to be his final season in organized ball. Williamson always battled with injuries and the last time he threw on a Major League stage his once solid velocity (93.5 MPH in 2002) was reduced to a measly 89.1 MPH.

The Worst:
Terry Mulholland 88.1%
Chad Zerbe 87.8%
Jeff Farnsworth 86.9%
Jeff Tam 85.8%
Rolando Arrojo 85.8%

Fun fact: two of these pitchers would never pitch in the Majors again. Unlike the guys who missed bats, it wasn’t because of injury.