One of the main uses of value analysis is to try and find market inefficiencies. Ten years ago, on base percentage was undervalued, so teams loaded up on high walk guys that scouts didn’t care for. More recently, defense has been the undervalued asset, so teams have gone after guys who can turn balls in play into outs.

Everything is cyclical, though. As more teams pursue what is currently undervalued, it becomes more fairly valued, and the competitive advantage goes away. At some point soon, defense will probably become fairly valued again, and the teams who are loading up on good defenders will be looking for some other way to spend their money.

What will the next big inefficiency be? It’s impossible to predict, of course, but I have a guess – old players.

We’re currently in the midst of an age where a lot of teams are operating on reduced budgets, and have shifted towards trying to keep costs down by going with more inexperienced talent whose salaries are deflated by their lack of service time. Teams like Tampa Bay and Oakland are continually attempting to replenish their farm systems to ensure a never ending pipeline of cheap, effective major league players that they can pull from.

As more teams have turned to this model, young talent has become increasingly expensive to acquire. The relative value of experienced veterans has taken a hit as teams have turned towards cheaper labor, even accepting downgrades in on field production in order to keep their payrolls in check.

This has led to yet another winter where guys over 35 are having a hard time finding jobs. It’s not just Johnny Damon, though he is a good example of this effect. Over the last few years, we’ve seen numerous productive-yet-old players pushed into retirement against their will, ranging from the likes of Kenny Lofton, Ray Durham, Frank Thomas, and Jim Edmonds.

Edmonds, of course, is now attempting to get back into baseball, and seems like he may be able to convince some team to give him a job. But he had to publicly ask for a minor league contract at the Cardinals FanFest event in order to begin the discussion – no one was beating down his door.

Teams have become cautious with the contracts they give to aging players, not wanting to get burned paying too much to a guy who may end up not having anything left in the tank, but I feel like we’re passing the point of caution and shifting towards a market failure. If a guy is a good player at 35, you should not expect him to be useless at 36. Yes, you regress his projection for aging, but players who go from good-to-terrible in a single season are the exception, not the rule.

Given the contracts that quality older players have been settling for over the last few years, I think we may see teams in the market for value increasingly going for the graybeards.

It’s amazing what can happen in but two short years. Coming into the winter of 2008, Rich Hill looked like he could be the real deal. His 2007 season wasn’t stellar – his FIP was only 4.32 due to a high home run rate – but there were great signs, especially from a 27-year-old left-handed starting pitcher. Most notably, the 8.45 K/9, especially given Hill’s lack of electric stuff, had Cubs fans expecting great things for years to come.

Now, we know it just wasn’t meant to be. Hill’s 2008 was derailed after only five starts, after a terrible 18 walks in 19.2 innings resulted in a demotion to AAA. Once in Iowa, the struggles only continued, as Hill walked over a batter per inning there, as well. He got another chance in Baltimore based on the potential he showed in 2007, but again, Hill couldn’t find the strike zone, and walked 49 batters in 61 innings between Triple-A and the majors.

In 2010, the Cardinals are going to hope to strike gold with Hill, giving the lefty an invite to spring training. It seems like Hill could be productive – CHONE projects him to have a chance to be worth roughly 1 WAR and to compete for a job as the 5th starter. Hill certainly seems like the perfect non-roster invite candidate, as the risk here is minimal and the reward could be great.

We must remember, however, that the projections presented here are “50th percentile projections.” With Hill, it seems like we have two possibilities: either he finds the strike zone and returns to 2007 form, or he remains a walk machine and is a below replacement level player. When we see “9” in the RAR category for CHONE, that’s combining the possibility that we get the +31 player from 2007 and the possibility that he remains the below replacement (certainly, if you include his time in AAA Iowa) player from 2008 and 2009. We’re probably looking at a 20% chance of a 4.00 FIP and a 80% chance of a 5.00 FIP, leading to the roughly 4.80 FIP being projected by both CHONE and Marcel, or something along those lines.

With the price of the dice roll merely a non-guaranteed contract with an invite to spring training, St. Louis should be applauded for taking this chance. Given Hill’s constant problems, however, expectations must be tempered – any sort of major league results out of Hill in 2010 will be a bonus to a Cardinals team that is already favored to win the NL Central.

Last week, I asked you for questions regarding Japanese & Asian baseball. There were more replies than I expected, so I’m going to have to split my responses into two or three posts. So let’s get started with part 1.

Ed says: January 22, 2010 at 1:01 pm

I’d be interested in how often pitcher arm injuries happen in Japan/Asia versus how often they do in MLB/MiLB. On that subject, what the average pitch speeds are as well in comparison.

My casual observation is that there are more Mark Prior-style, one-year wonder flameouts in Japan than in MLB. Without giving it too much thought, I can come up with Kazumi Saito, Futoshi Yamabe, Kenjiro Kawasaki, Shinji Imanaka, Tomohiro Kuroki… each of whom had one or two outstanding seasons before succumbing to injuries. Imanaka, who threw 249 innings of 2.20 ball at age 22 and his last pitch at age 30, recently said in the news that “rest is important”.

On velocity, there are fewer pitchers in NPB who throw 95+ mph than there are in MLB. You can get a sense for what pitchers throw and how hard at my NPB Tracker Data site. It doesn’t compare to the pitch f/x data we have on Fangraphs, but it will give you a sense of how NPB pitchers mix it up.

mymrbig says: January 22, 2010 at 1:04 pm

I’ve read that baseball used in Japan are a slightly different size than those in the US. Does this pose much of a problem for pitchers moving either way, or is the difference small enough that it doesn’t really matter?

Did you realize that early-90s hair metal stragglers Mr. Big enjoyed quite a following in Japan? Anyway, commenter KaminaAyato provided a solid answer for this question in the comments of the previous post, but I will add that I do think it makes a difference for some pitchers. Daisuke Matsuzaka’s forkball hasn’t survived the move across the Pacific, Yu Darvish had trouble throwing his curve with the WBC ball, and Kenshin Kawakami said he spent more time working on his breaking pitches early in spring training in 2009 than he would have previously. But then again, guys like Hiroki Kuroda and Takashi Saito have seemed to adjust just fine. Keiichi Yabu seemed about the same in the US and Japan too.

The Frankman says: January 22, 2010 at 1:13 pm

How big is the impact of the different strike zones is it for a pitcher coming from Japan? I’m wondering since guys like Ryota Igarashi will have to deal with it.

Chris says: January 22, 2010 at 1:55 pm

Yeah, I would like to hear this one. I always hear that the strike zones are bigger in Asian baseball — any truth to that?

My (unofficial) translation of the official rule is “the strike zone’s upper limit is the point mid-way between the batter’s shoulders and the top of his pants, the lower limit is the bottom of the batter’s knees, and covers the area over homeplate”. So that’s not too far off the MLB strike zone. In practice, I have noticed that the umpires can get a little generous at times, the most obvious example that comes to mind being that Koji Uehara always seemed to get the close calls.

MetsFan says: January 22, 2010 at 1:12 pm

Is there some sort of MLE for pitchers, or certain statistics that are more predictive than others of MLB performance? For hitters, it seems like it might be harder to do because of how power translates

There were a couple of questions on this, so I’ll point out Jim Albright’s work in this area again.

Jon says: January 22, 2010 at 1:16 pm

Thanks for doing this! I’m intrigued.

1) What is the average $(or yen)/WAR in Japanese baseball? Significantly lower than MLB I assume, but do you have any data?

2) I’ve heard pitchers are used differently in Japan (tactically, that is). Pitch Counts? Side sessions? Bullpens? 5 man rotations? What’s the story?

3) Is Japan typically a lower run scoring environment than MLB? If so, is that due to different offensive strategies (sacrifices, “small ball”, etc.)?

4) Is there pitchfx data in Japan?

I have more, but that’ll do for now.

Thank again!

I already posted a reply to this, but I’ve given question #1 a little more thought. The problem is the “R” out of WAR — I don’t think anyone has translated the concept of replacement player to NPB. If the expected performance of a replacement-level NPB player could be nailed down it should be possible to apply the rest of the concept to NPB. Another approach would be to look at the foreign players who move to NPB each season, what their MLB projections are and how much they make in Japan. Projected MLB WAR isn’t necessarily a good predictor of NPB performance, but it might give some insight into how much NPB teams pay to import talent.

That’s all for this round. If I didn’t get to your question this time, I will in an upcoming installment.

General Manager: Ruben Amaro Jr.
Farm Director: Steve Noworyta
Scouting Director: Marti Wolever

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

This organization definitely has a different feel after the Roy Halladay/Cliff Lee trades. The loss of prospects Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor and Travis D’Arnaud to the Blue Jays (Taylor later got flipped to Oakland) hurts the overall depth of the Top 10 list, and the players that came back from Seattle were not of an equal value. Beyond Brown there are a lot of question marks.

1. Domonic Brown, OF, Double-A
DOB: September 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2006 20th round – Georgia HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

The club is lucky to still have Brown, aka the player Toronto really wanted in the Roy Halladay trade. The 2010 season could be the year that Brown vaults into elite prospect status, if he’s not already there for most people. The outfielder is a speed/power threat with two straight seasons of 20-plus steals and an ISO of .214 at high-A in ’09 (His .177 ISO in double-A wasn’t bad, either). Overall, he hit .298/.376/.494 on the season. One minor knock on Brown to this point has been his durability. Injuries have kept him from appearing in more than 114 games over the past three seasons. Of concern, as well, is the jump in strikeout rate last season (20.2 in high-A, 25.2% in double-A) but that is to be somewhat expected with a jump in his power output. His walk rate remained solid (12.1 in high-A, 8.6% in double-A).

2. Phillippe Aumont, RHP, Double-A
DOB: January 1989 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – Quebec HS (Seattle)
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-95 mph fastball, slider, change-up

The top player acquired in the surprising Cliff Lee trade with Seattle, Aumont is armed with a big-time fastball but his secondary pitches leave something to be desired. Despite that fact (and a history of injury problems), his new organization is planning to stick him back in the starting rotation. Drafted in the first round as a raw Canadian prep pitcher, Aumont quickly reached double-A in less than two seasons (in part due to Seattle’s aggressive approach). The 21-year-old pitcher’s ’09 season was solid. He began the year in high-A – in a very good hitter’s league – and posted a 3.53 FIP while allowing 24 hits in 33.1 innings of work (thanks in part to a .264 BABIP). He showed OK control with a walk rate of 3.24 BB/9 and a solid strikeout rate of 9.45 K/9. That whiff rate jumped to 12.23 K/9 upon his promotion to double-A, but his walk rate also rose to 5.60 BB/9. His BABIP-allowed jumped to .436 and his LOB% plummeted to an unlucky 59.5%. Aumont will be a pitcher to watch closely in 2010, as he is one of the most volatile prospects in the game.

3. Trevor May, RHP, Low-A
DOB: September 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 4th round – Washington HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

May had an excellent season, but caution must be used due to his limited sample size. In 15 low-A starts, the right-hander posted a strikeout rate of 11.06 K/9 and allowed just 58 hits in 77.1 innings of work. He had control issues and had a walk rate of 5.00 BB/9 but a HR/9 rate of 0.35 helped to keep the damage to a minimum. May also benefited from luck with a LOB% of 80.0%. He needs to try and get his ground-ball rate up above 40%. The youngster could begin 2010 back in low-A or the organization could be aggressive and move him up to high-A. Either way, he needs to get 25 starts this year so we can see what his potential is with a larger workload.

4. Juan Ramirez, RHP, High-A
DOB: August 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 non-drafted international free agent (Nicaragua)
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 90-95 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Another piece obtained in the Lee deal with Seattle, Ramirez has a nice fastball but he is still trying to put all the pieces together. The right-handed prospect had a rough time playing in a good hitter’s park in high-A in ’09. He posted a 4.76 FIP and allowed 153 hits in 142.1 innings. His strikeout rate also dropped below 8.20 K/9 for the first time in three years to 7.02 K/9. His walk rate, though, remained respectable at 3.35 BB/9 and he kept his line-drive rate to 12%. Despite a 42% ground-ball rate (which is OK, not great), Ramirez allowed quite a few homers (1.14 HR/9) so he’ll need to improve that for 2010. At worst, he should develop into back-of-the-rotation starter, with the potential to be a No. 3. A set-up role in the bullpen would not be out of the question.

5. Sebastian Valle, C, Low-A
DOB: July 1990 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Mexico)
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Valle has the makings of a solid offensive-minded catcher, although his wOBA plummeted to .301 in his first taste of full-season ball in ’09. At low-A ball, the catcher hit just .223/.313/.331 in 157 at-bats. In short-season ball, though, the left-handed hitter posted a .390 wOBA and a triple-slash line of .307/.335/.531 in 192 at-bats. Valle showed a better walk rate at low-A (8.9%) than in short-season ball (4.9%) and his +20% strikeout rate is a tad high, although his ISO rate was .224 at the junior level. He needs to improve against southpaws, as his OPS was .659 against them, compared to .815 against right-handers. Defensively, the Mexico native is a work-in-progress and he threw out just 18% of base runners in ’09.

6. Tyson Gillies, OF, High-A
DOB: October 1988 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2006 25th round – Iowa Western CC (Seattle)
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

The is reason to be excited about Gillies, but the outfielder was playing in one of the best hitter’s leagues in all of baseball. His .411 wOBA is nice, as is his triple-slash line of .341/.430/.486, but his BABIP was .395. There are two things about his game that he cannot luck into, though: his walk rate of 10.1% and his 44 steals (although he was caught 19 times). The 2010 season will be a telling one for Gillies, who will be moving to a more neutral league. To have success, he just needs to keep doing what he’s doing: Hitting a lot of ground balls (61% in ’09) and using his speed to get on base (and then into scoring position).

7. Anthony Gose, OF, Low-A
DOB: August 1990 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 2nd round – California HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

In some regards, Gose is similar to Gillies – only more raw. Gose had a respectable first full season in the minors and hit .259/.323/.353 in 510 at-bats. His speed was on full display as he stole 76 bases in 96 attempts. To fully take advantage of his speed to its full extent, though, he needs to improve his .323 OBP and 6.1% walk rate. The strikeout rate is also far too high (21.6%) for someone with an .094 ISO rate. Like Gillies, Gose does a nice job of keeping the ball on the ground (64 GB%). Oddly, the left-handed hitter fared much better against southpaws than right-handers in ’09 (.824 vs .638 OPS).

8. Antonio Bastardo, LHP, Majors
DOB: September 1985 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2005 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 87-92 mph fastball, plus change-up, slider

It was a busy year for Bastardo, who pitched at five different levels, spent time on the DL and made his MLB debut. In six Major League appearances, the lefty posted a 5.08 FIP but showed solid control with a walk rate of 3.42. He spent the majority of the season in double-A, where he posted a 2.03 FIP and allowed 22 hits in 36.0 innings. His strikeout rate was an eye-popping 10.25 K/9 and his control was spot-on at 1.75 BB/9. A starter in the minors, Bastardo could make the Phillies bullpen in 2010, as he possesses a slightly-above average heater for a lefty and good slider. His change-up was a well-below-average pitch in his brief MLB debut.

9. John Mayberry, OF, Majors
DOB: December 1983 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 1st round – Stanford University (Texas)
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 1

A former two-time No. 1 draft pick (out of high school and college), Mayberry’s dad (of the same name) was also a pretty good hitter in his day. The younger Mayberry has massive power potential but he has yet to show an ability to hit for a high average in pro ball, which drags down his overall numbers – especially considering his OBP is relatively low, as well. The prospect showed his power potential by mashing the ball (.263 ISO) in a 39-game MLB trial in ’09. He spent the majority of the year in triple-A where he hit .256/.332/.456 with an ISO of .199 in 316 at-bats. Despite his size (6’6”, 230 lbs), Mayberry also possesses the ability to steal 10 bases with regular playing time. Already 26, the outfielder (who can also play first base) is big-league ready but there is no spot for him. If he makes the 2010 opening day roster, it will be as a part-time player – or due to an injury to Ryan Howard, Raul Ibanez or Jayson Werth.

10. Scott Mathieson, RHP, Double-A
DOB: February 1984 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2002 17th round – British Columbia HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 1
Repertoire: 91-97 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Mathieson is a great story and he gets the nod over some other players like Jarred Cosart and Domingo Santana, both of whom played in the Gulf Coast League (rookie ball) this past season. He had a lot of success in the bullpen in ’09 while recovering from his second Tommy John surgery (interesting fellow Canadian hurler Shawn Hill, now with the Jays, also underwent a second procedure last June and is on the comeback trail). In 33.0 combined innings in ’09, the right-hander allowed 22 hits (.188 AVG), a walk rate of 3.27 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 8.45 K/9. He also gave up just one homer (0.27 HR/9) despite a low ground-ball rate (39.4%). If his elbow holds up, Mathieson could eventually see time as a closer. He will turn 26 by the time the season begins and he will likely receive some more fine-tuning in triple-A before he trusted with a big-league bullpen role. If he can continue to show good control and a blazing fastball, Mathieson could be contributing at the MLB level by mid-season.

Up Next: The Toronto Blue Jays

A little more than a week ago, Riley Cooper had plans to travel to Arlington, Texas to pick up a $125,000 check. It was half of the signing bonus that Cooper had agreed to with the Texas Rangers, a significantly over-slot signing for the 754th overall selection. Cooper, who only started 41 games for the Florida Gators baseball team in three seasons, was deemed a coup for the Rangers scouting department, as no other organization thought it possible he would give up football for baseball. Ultimately, the other 29 were correct, as it was revealed Tuesday that Cooper canceled his physical (and check signing) with the Rangers to pursue a career in the National Football League.

Cooper has not been the only established college player to make this decision recently, as he is joined by all-SEC safety Chad Jones (LSU) and Heisman Trophy finalist Toby Gerhart (Stanford), both of whom some expected to re-join their college teams this spring.

The best prospect in both sports, by a country mile, is Jones. In fact, Jones is the most polished two-way player we have seen since Jeff Samardzija. Where he lacks Samardzija’s proven baseball record, Jones matched the former Golden Domer in arm strength. Paul Mainieri’s crew began to give him time out of the LSU bullpen late last season, and he emerged as an important member of their pitching staff in Omaha. While he would have had to show polish with his secondary stuff this spring, his potential as a mid-90s lefty, with good spin on his curveball, was getting first-round grades from some scouts. But those scouts also knew he loved football.

“I really thought we’d lose him,” said Louisiana State coach Paul Mainieri, who also coached Samardzija at Notre Dame. “I thought he wanted to go into pro football. Mentally, I was already preparing that he would go unless word came back that he wouldn’t get drafted high.”

Jones could not have had the leverage that Samardzija did, and would not have sniffed the $10 million that he received from the Cubs. Still, the nature of the provisions that two-sport athletes receive in the MLB Draft, which allows MLB teams to spread the bonus over five years, would have led to an above-slot contract. I believe something in the neighborhood of what Shelby Miller received from the Cards last year — qualifying for two-sport status as an all-state prep punter — as a first round pick, $2.875 million, would have been available to Jones. On the contrary, in the NFL Drat last year, the two defensive backs drafted closest to 44th overall (where Scouts Inc. ranks Jones) received $2.15 and $2 million guaranteed, with four-year contracts in the $4-5 million range. Jones, as you can see, is giving up guaranteed money in the short-term to follow his NFL passion.

When Gerhart went undrafted last June, it became clear that he had voiced to scouts his intentions to pursue a football career. When he emerged as the nation’s most productive runner this season, this was etched in stone, as Gerhart is now a higher ranked football player (85th overall by Scouts Inc.) than he would have been as a baseball player. I saw Gerhart at the 2008 College World Series, and he was very impressive — but more so physically and in batting practice than in game play. While he went 12-for-12 stealing bases in college, he didn’t show the home-to-first speed you’d like in a college running back, and all his power would have been projected down the road.

Finally, we have Cooper, and we don’t have to guess what he’s passing on: the agreed-upon $250,000 contract he signed last year. The contract was contingent upon Cooper giving up football after one more autumn with Mr. Tebow, but the Gators’ success was enough for him to stay with the pigskin. He’s much more polished there, and though he ranks only as the No. 17 wideout through Scouts Inc., just the presence on a 53-man roster will give him more money than the Rangers promised. While Cooper was a star defensive outfielder with great speed, he was raw, showing scouts only 147 at-bats in two seasons. Financially, it’s clear: if he makes a roster in football, he made the right choice (financially). If he doesn’t, then we’ll have to wonder what if.

Failure in football could see all these players retreat to baseball, but the bonuses will be long gone. Hopefully they never reach the point of wondering what if, and each succeeds in their chosen sport.

The Dodgers brought in Brad Ausmus last year as a mentor to young catcher Russell Martin. Apparently, they were happy with that arrangement, as the club agreed to continue its relationship on Tuesday, signing the 40-year-old (41-year-old in April) to a contract guaranteeing one million dollars this year with a mutual option for 2011.

Simply put, Brad Ausmus is a terrible hitter. A horrible hitter. Adjectives struggle to describe how bad of a hitter Brad Ausmus is. Even with his extremely lucky 2009 – a .370 BABIP, 80 points above his career average resulted in a .322 wOBA in 107 PAs, just below average – Ausmus has compiled a stunning -51.8 wRAA since 2006. CHONE projects him for a ridiculously bad 52 wRC+. Yes, that’s right – Ausmus is projected to be half as productive as the average MLB hitter. Basically, that means that Ausmus is no longer an MLB hitter.

Of course, it’s only one million dollars for a large market club and it’s just a backup catcher role. What does it really matter? Still, roster spots have value, and the Dodgers are far from the point that the Yankees are where another marginal win holds little sway over their playoff fate. Even with Russell Martin’s general health in 2009, Ausmus still saw 100 plate appearances. At the level that CHONE projects him, that’s about a 6 run loss versus an average hitter, and a 5 run loss versus the projected offensive level of AJ Ellis, for whom CHONE projects a 94 wRC+.

I’m going to give Ned Colletti the benefit of the doubt and assume that he isn’t fooled by Ausmus’s performance last year and is instead bringing him back to continue his mentoring of Russell Martin. Martin, at 27 and entering his 5th season, can probably be considered a veteran at this point. Even if you buy that Martin still needs to be treated like a rookie, consider this: After three straight 107 or higher WRC+ seasons, the addition of Brad Ausmus coincided with a substantial drop in power and Martin’s worst season yet, with an 88 wRC+.

This is nowhere near enough data to suggest that Ausmus is responsible for this decline, and to make such a claims would be irresponsible. What’s more likely is that Brad Ausmus’s presence has not and will not affect Martin’s skill in the slightest – after all, Martin is a better hitter than Ausmus ever was in his career – and the Dodgers are wasting an important roster spot at a time when they need all the wins they can get as a playoff contending team.

Your task today? To file projections for three recent movers (if not so much shakers): Jon Garland, Xavier Nady, and Jim Thome. Your compensation? Something like, but not quite exactly, the satisfaction of a job well done.

Garland moves southward in the NL West to the cavernous and pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Or PETCO. Or whatever.

After missing all but seven games last season to his second Tommy John procedure and the subsequent rehab, Nady looks to make his return with the Cubs, who signed the outfielder to a one-year, $3.3MM contract.

The Twins hope the contract they just gave a 39-year-old Jim Thome is right on Target. (Get it? Like Target Field?)

Ben Sheets signing with Oakland did not surprise me in the least. GM Billy Beane has been making these kinds of deals for years now. What does surprise me is the money because usually on the heels of the announcement of the contract, I have nearly always been left wishing my team had been in on that player at that price. This time? Not so much.

The reported deal is for $10 million guaranteed with some as of yet unknown incentives thrown into the mix. In a straight vacuum, I think this is an overpay. On a one year deal in this winter’s economic climate, Oakland is paying Sheets like a three win pitcher. Three wins is solid pitching and there’s a decent chance, we will know more when they are leaked, that at a three win performance level, Sheets will be triggering some of those salary incentives, meaning he would have to pitch even better to justify the contract.

Neither CHONE, nor the nearly universally optimistic fans project Sheets to even be able to accrue three wins of value due to his very real injury concerns. It is important to remember that the injury that cost Ben Sheets all of 2009 was not his first, or even second or even third arm-related injury. A list of pitching-important injuries to Sheets in the last five years includes his elbow, hand, shoulder (twice) and back.

The 31-year-old last pitched a quasi-full season in 2008 and was worth about 4.5 wins. If he managed to reproduce those 200 innings thrown in 2010, I would expect something around 4 wins thanks to aging, injury-related decline and regression. Dock him another half win for the league switch into the American League and even at full health, I’m not confident Ben Sheets is better than 3.5 wins.

The signing does not come in a vacuum though. The AL West is very tight based on projections and Sheets, even at an expected 2 or 2.5 win total value represents a significant upgrade to Oakland’s win totals, which pushes them into the discussion for the division. As we have discussed plenty of times this offseason, those wins at the edge of the playoff picture are worth a lot of marginal revenue. There is also something small to say about signing Ben Sheets away from Texas and Seattle, both rumored to be interested. It leaves me in a weird balance between not liking the deal for them because of the cost, but liking the deal for them because of the increased playoff odds.

It is also strikes me as odd to see Oakland take risks with high payroll players. Injury reclamations are nothing new, but before they have always seemed to land them on the cheap, possibly luring them with the guarantee of playing time. This time around, Sheets had plenty of suitors and Oakland paid for it. Nevertheless, given Oakland’s position, still, as the fourth best team in the division on paper and the one year nature of the contract with Sheets, do not be surprised if Sheets’ name is on the trading block come summer. That would be another of Billy Beane’s specialties.

The Jon Garland deal makes sense financially. For the cost of a little more than a win, the Padres get, well, a pitcher who will produce more than a win. I’m just not sure it’s the best usage of money given their roster construction.

First, Garland. He’s a rubber-armed back-of-the-rotation arm through and through. His career xFIP is 4.61 and in every season since 2002 he’s amassed at least 190 innings. Nothing is wowing or awe-inspiring about his game. Rarely will he strike a batter out and even rarer is a walk. He works the zone with a low-90s fastball and has a garden variety of secondary pitches to choose from.

The problem is that the Padres really don’t need another back-end starter. If the season started tomorrow, they would have Chris Young, Mat Latos, Clayton Richard, and Kevin Correia guaranteed rotation slots with a whole host of arms fighting for the fifth spot including Sean Gallagher, Cesar Carrillo, Wade LeBlanc, and even Aaron Poreda. Is Garland better than those options? Probably. Is he worth $4M more to a team that doesn’t figure to have playoff aspirations? It wouldn’t seem so.

Obviously the Padres could cash him in at the deadline to a team looking for a stretch-run starter with ultra-valuable and rare post-season experience. That would be exactly what Arizona did last season with Garland, who wound up being traded in late August to the Dodgers for a player to be named later. Petco should deflate some of his metrics and I guess that could help with the return, although it’s not like the other general managers are going to be hoodwinked here.

The Padres add a league average starter at a league average price. It’s just not a sexy move and maybe even an unnecessary one.

As you might have guessed, not all baseball fans agree when it comes to evaluating baseball players, and the Fan Projections are a great example of how many different opinions there are of various baseball players.

If you look at all the players’ projected wOBA and the spread of how individual people projected wOBA, you get a standard deviation of about .017 on average. What this means is that assuming the Fan Projections have a normal distribution (which may not be the case), about 68% of the fan projections are within +/- .017 of the fan average when it comes to projecting wOBA. Over 600 plate appearances, that works out to about +/- 8.5 runs above average (wRAA).

It’s particularly interesting to see just which players fans happens to be more or less in agreement about, so here are the top 10 regular players with at least 50 votes where the fans agree the most:

                  wOBA      Std   Votes
Adam LaRoche      .350     .009      65
Brian Roberts     .358     .010      65
Aaron Hill        .348     .011      77
Juan Pierre       .316     .011     107
Bobby Abreu       .365     .012      89
David Wright      .396     .012     153
Matt Holliday     .396     .013      99
Todd Helton       .388     .013      51
Felipe Lopez      .333     .013      71
Ryan Zimmerman    .376     .013      81

With these players, people seem to have a pretty good idea of what to expect. Keep in mind that every additional .001 of wOBA ends up as an extra .5 runs above average over 600 plate appearances.

Here are the top 10 players people disagree on the most:

                  wOBA      Std   Votes
Shane Victorino   .350     .024      65
David Ortiz       .362     .024     105
Ryan Howard       .388     .023     107
Pablo Sandoval    .384     .022     113
Alex Gordon       .364     .021      49
Alex Rodriguez    .418     .020     263
Jimmy Rollins     .342     .020      92
Justin Upton      .393     .019     102
Adrian Beltre     .345     .019     151
Curtis Granderson .376     .019     137

With all of these guys – just on batting alone and not even looking at defense or playing time – you’re looking at at least a +/- 1 win difference within one standard deviation assuming a minimum of 600 plate appearances.

As the ballots keep coming in, we’ll continue to look at the Fan Projections in various ways. There really is a wealth of data in these projections that goes beyond just what goes into the single projection line on the player pages and hopefully we’ll all be able to learn a lot from them.