Last off-season, the Padres signed Cliff Floyd. This was weird because the Padres were still located within the National League and Floyd’s knees were discovered alongside Ardi years ago. Floyd was fresh off a season with the World Series runners-up and immediately became the Padres’ designated pinch hitter. He appeared in 10 games, walked once, and hit two singles. The coincidences aren’t damning, but Matt Stairs may want to glance over his apparently slim shoulders come springtime.

The deal is of the minor league variety, meaning Stairs is hardly guaranteed a roster spot. Evidently his role could be similar to that of Floyd’s; which is to say, the left-handed pinch hitter and clubhouse presence extraordinaire. The rest of the Padres’ bench seems settled though; Jerry Hairston Jr. will play everywhere, Dusty Ryan will be the back-up catcher, Salazar will be the right-handed pinch hitter, and one of the other outfielders (presumably Scott Hairston or Tony Gwynn Jr.) will take the other bench spot.

Trying to project a 40-something pinch hitter’s offensive performance is an unenviable task. I hesitate to compare Stairs to Lenny Harris, since he walks more than Harris ever did and Stairs is yet to go through a season where he’s exactly -1 WAR off the bench (which Harris did in 2003 despite impressively only appearing in 88 games). CHONE calls him a below average hitter and fielder who will come oh-so-close to that -1 WAR mark, but I’m hopeful CHONE is wrong.

The odd thing about Harris – which I guess isn’t so odd when you consider the sample size – is how he was able to produce one final string of plate appearances as an above average hitter before bowing away in 2005. I don’t know if this is Stairs’ final year or what his plans are, and there is little doubt that Stairs is a player with an immense amount of cult appeal which he’ll continue to hold long after his playing days are done.

A large part of that appeal stems from his mustache (amongst the universal rules in life: you must respect a man with a nice lip sweater) and I guess what I’m saying is: I hope Stairs and his mustache go out on top. Whether that comes with the Padres or whatever contender he latches onto in August. He’s not the most useful player anymore; he’s just fun to watch.

Back in September, I was lucky enough to grab lunch with Jonah Keri and Patrick Sullivan at The Friendly Toast in Cambridge, where we mostly marveled at how big the kitchen in that place must be to support a roughly 142 page menu. Once we got our food figured out, the conversation shifted to baseball. Curiously enough, a decent part of the discussion between an Expos fan, a Red Sox fan, and a Mariner fan focused on the potential moves the Baltimore Orioles might make.

The Orioles were interesting to all three of us. Through some savvy transactions (okay, mostly the Erik Bedard trade) and good drafts, the O’s have amassed an impressive group of young talents. And after years of overspending on bad veterans, the team had been financially sound, giving themselves a significant amount of financial flexibility heading into the winter.

Flush with cash and some obvious holes, it seemed like an off-season of good spending could setup the Orioles to be an interesting team in 2010, even pushing into fringe contender status if their young talent all matured quicker than expected. Especially as another strong buyer’s market emerged, this appeared to be a perfect opportunity for the Orioles to add some key pieces that could grow with the core already in place.

Instead, they ended up spending $25 million in 2010 (and $6M in 2011) to acquire Kevin Millwood, Garrett Atkins, Miguel Tejada, and Mike Gonzalez. They filled four holes, but the return on investment seems… underwhelming.

Let’s start with the two infielders. The signing of Tejada and Atkins fills the two corner spots, with Tejada expected to play third while Atkins shifts to first base. By pretty much any projection you use, both are expected to be roughly league average hitters – CHONE expects a .335 wOBA from Tejada and a .324 wOBA from Atkins. Given that both are adjusting to new defensive positions and on the wrong side of thirty, forecasting their defensive value is a bit tricky, though I wouldn’t expect either to be particularly good at their new spot.

Tejada is probably a league average player while Atkins is a bit below that. Overall, the production that the duo will offer the Orioles should be around +3 wins. Given that the market is paying about $3.5M per win on one year deals, Baltimore paid almost exactly what you’d expect. They didn’t overpay, but these weren’t bargains either.

On the pitching side of things, they inherited $9 million of Kevin Millwood’s contract, then gave Mike Gonzalez $6 million per year for both 2010 and 2011 and surrendered their second round pick for the right to do so. Millwood, like Tejada, is a decent bet to be a durable, league average-ish player for the next year, while Gonzalez will offer value out of the bullpen, though my position on relievers being less valuable than the market believes is well known. Again, you’d expect about +3 wins of value from the pair this year, but given the higher acquisition cost, Baltimore overpaid on both of these guys.

But, beyond just the dollars per win stuff, there’s the real head-scratching part of all this. The Orioles added about +5 to +6 wins to their roster for 2010, but that’s not a big enough improvement to make waves in a tough AL East, and only one of the players – the relief pitcher, no less – is under contract beyond this season.

They improved their team’s chances of being decent this year, but have done nothing to improve the team’s future. There was no multi-year deal for an undervalued position player (say, Adrian Beltre), who would provide value both in 2010 and beyond. The deals that were made were handed to a couple of 35-year-olds, a 31-year-old reliever, and a 30-year-old.

There’s just very little upside in any of these deals. Even in a best case scenario, Tejada and Millwood continue to be above average players, make the team good enough to fight the Rays for third place in the AL East, and then file for free agency again next year. Or, I guess, you could hope to trade them at the deadline for a prospect if they’re playing well, but then that raises the question of why the team didn’t just take the $15 million they gave those two and plow it into the draft and international free agents in the first place.

This just isn’t the off-season that I thought the Orioles had in them. This is a safe, low risk, low upside winter that doesn’t really change the fate of the franchise much at all. They got a little bit better for next year, but lost an opportunity to really help the 2011/2012 teams that could actually be quite good.

Reportedly, Carlos Ruiz has resigned with the Phillies for three years and nine million dollars, which covers his remaining years of arbitration. Since these are arbitration years, figuring out what the Phillies are paying for isn’t as straightforward as in a free agent signing. The standard way of accounting for arbitration years is to assume that the team will be paying 40, 60, and 80 percent of the player’s actual value. So, spreading the contract evenly over three years and dividing the three million dollar annual salary by 40, 60, and 80%, the “real value” of the contract is about $16.3 million. While earlier in the off-season I assumed something like $4-$4.4 million a win, the market has been settling at closer to $3.5 million. Assuming slight yearly salary inflation and a half-win-a-season decline, the Philadelphia is paying Ruiz as if he’s 1.8 WAR player for 2010. Let’s see if Ruiz stacks up.

Offensively, Ruiz had a good 2009, especially for a catcher, hitting .255/.355/.425 for a .337 wOBA. That was by far his best recent year; Ruiz had a .319 wOBA in 2007 and .279 wOBA in 2008. Moreover, despite this being the first year he was elgible for arbitration, Ruiz just turned 31, an age at which most players are pretty clearly on the decline slope, even if they aren’t dealing with the wear-and-tear of catching. CHONE projects Ruiz for .255/.337/.401, or 8 runs below average per 150 games in context-neutral linear weight, while on his FanGraphs player page you get his nominal linear weights (wOBA/wRAA) at a bit below average (.327 wOBA). ZiPS is less optimistic: .251/.341/.391, which I translate to .324 wOBA, about -2/150. Marcel says: .313 wOBA, -8/150. The fans are the most optimistic: .259/.358/.401, .333 wOBA, +3/150. And, just for the heck of it, my own “system” (I’m wavering between FREDO, GOB, and DAYTON) agrees with Marcel: .313 wOBA, -8/150. That’s a lot of messy numbers! Let’s take something in the middle and call Ruiz a -4/150 hitter.

Defensively, the Fans Scouting Report had Ruiz as one of the better catchers in 2009, and my own defensive rankings of 2009 catchers also place him near the top at +5.4 runs. CHONE and the Fans both project Ruiz for about +3/150 in 2010.

A proper WAR estimate involves playing time. While most of the linear weights/runs figures I’ve given above are prorated for 150 games, Ruiz is a catcher, he’s 31, and he’s never played more than 117 games in a season. The Fan Projections are particularly useful for this, and have Ruiz projected for 108 games in 2010.

Putting it together, -4 offense, +3 defense, +12 prorated positional adjustment, +20 replacement level, all prorated for 108 games = about a 2.2 WAR player. As we saw above, the Phillies are paying for a 1.8 WAR player, so they got a bit of a bargain, although not as much of a bargain as I initially thought it might be.

Ruiz isn’t Brian McCann or Joe Mauer. Still, while taking arbitration into account lessens the bargain the Phillies are getting, given what teams have been paying for the likes of Bengie Molina, Jason Kendall, and Ivan Rodriguez this offseason, it again illustrates the advantage clubs accrue when they have “merely” average-ish players under club control.

General Manager: Theo Epstein
Farm Director: Mike Hazen
Scouting Director: Amiel Sawdaye

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

There are no can’t-miss, once-in-a-decade talents on this Top 10 list, but there are a number of players who have the opportunity to really explode in 2010. You also have to love the fact that all 10 players on the list were drafted or originally signed by the Red Sox organization. You can’t fake good scouting and development.

1. Casey Kelly, RHP, High-A
DOB: October 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 1st round – Florida HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-93 mph fastball, plus curveball, change

The organization faced a difficult, and well-document, problem in ’09 when Kelly expressed a desire to hit and play shortstop. A compromise was made and the talented prospect spent the year as a two-way player. After hitting just .224/.305/.313 with a 29% strikeout rate in low-A, though, Kelly gave in and announced he will be a full-time pitcher in 2010. It’s a good thing, too, because the right-hander showed a lot of promise for a player whose heart was not 100% on the mound last season. In low-A ball, he allowed 32 hits in 48.1 innings, while showing outstanding control with a walk rate of just 1.68 BB/9. He also did not allow a home run while posting a FIP of 2.14. That number jumped a bit with his promotion to high-A (3.33) but Kelly still showed excellent control (1.35 BB/9) with a modest strikeout rate of 6.75 K/9. With just 46.2 innings of experience above low-A, Kelly should head back to high-A in 2010, but he could see double-A before the end of the season.

2. Ryan Westmoreland, OF, Short-Season
DOB: April 1990 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2008 5th round – Rhode Island HS
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Westmoreland’s season came to a crashing halt when he broke his collar bone, but the outfielder solidified himself as the organization’s best hitter… in just 223 at-bats. The 19 year old hit .296/.401/.484 and showed good power potential with an ISO of .188. He also displayed patience at the plate with a walk rate of 14.2%, far exceeding what you’d expect from a player his age. His strikeout rate was a little high, but his future power output could eventually justify the number. Westmoreland was also a force on the base paths by stealing 19 bases in as many attempts. Sure it was short-season ball but a .427 wOBA is impressive no matter how you slice it.

3. Junichi Tazawa, RHP, Majors
DOB: June 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 non-drafted international free agent (Japan)
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, plus splitter, curveball, slider

Tazawa’s mad mix of pitches cut a swath through double-A line-ups but the Japanese import found the going a little tougher in triple-A and the Majors (albeit in a smaller sample size). The right-hander allowed just 80 hits in 98.0 innings in double-A, while also posting a strikeout rate of 8.08 K/9. He was also aided by solid control (2.39 BB/9) and some luck (.277 BABIP, 79.8 LOB%). In six MLB appearances, Tazawa allowed 43 hits in 25.1 innings and his strikeout rate dropped to just 4.62 K/9. His ground-ball rate in the Majors of 24.5% was ugly, and hitters had little trouble with his 90 mph fastball (-2.54 runs “above” average per 100 pitches). Despite the bump in the road, Tazawa is still learning, as well as adjusting to life in North America, so his potential remains high.

4. Josh Reddick, OF, Majors
DOB: February 1987 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2006 17th round – Middle Georgia College
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

Reddick got off to a solid start in ’09 at double-A and hit .277/.352/.520 in 256 at-bats. He showed outstanding power with an ISO rate of .242. His base running, after nabbing 14 bases in 17 ties in ’08, was almost non-existent as he was successful just five times in 10 attempts. Reddick’s numbers were terrible in 18 triple-A games and poor in 27 MLB games. His walk rate was good in double-A at 10.5%, but it dropped to 7.6% in triple-A and 3.2% in the Majors. On the plus side, six of his 10 MLB hits were for extra bases (59 at-bats). Reddick will certainly receive more seasoning in triple-A in 2010 but he should be ready to compete for a full-time gig in 2011… if there’s an opportunity.

5. Lars Anderson, 1B, Double-A
DOB: September 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2006 18th round – California HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

It was an ugly, ugly year for Anderson… and his struggles were well-documented. After hitting .316 in 41 double-A games in ’08, the first-base prospect spent the entire season at that level but hit just .233/.328/.345 with an ISO of .112 in 447 at-bats. There were a few good signs, including the fact that he maintained a solid walk rate (12.3%) and his strikeout rate did not skyrocket (25.5%, similar to his career norm – which admittedly is high to begin with). Anderson’s wOBA of .315 was .060 below his previous low of .374 at low-A in ’07. As a slow-footed player whose game requires plus power output, he needs to get that ground-ball rate up from 54.8%. Anderson will be just 22 for much of 2010, so he has time to turn things around.

6. Stolmy Pimentel, RHP, Low-A
DOB: February 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, plus change-up, curveball

Pimentel’s ’09 numbers do not wow. He allowed a lot of hits: 135 in 117.2 innings, but he put a lot of pitches in the strike zone (2.22 BB/9) at a level where players pretty much hack at everything. He also had some bad luck with a BABIP of .350. His strikeout rate was solid at 7.88 K/9 and his FIP was OK at 3.62. Pimentel’s ground-ball rate of 39.5% needs to improve if he’s going to survive the upper levels of the system. He turns 20 in February so time is on his side.

7. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, High-A
DOB: August 1989 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 6th round – Florida HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Simply getting back to the baseball diamond after dealing with a cancer scare would have been impressive enough, but Rizzo went out and turned himself into one of the best prospects in the system. The first baseman hit .298/.365/.494 in 245 low-A at-bats before moving up to high-A where he hit .295/.371/.420. Rizzo’s power output dropped from .196 to .125 ISO with the move, but his walk rate improved (9.1 to 10.9%), as did his strikeout rate (24.5 to 19.5%). Rizzo, though, was aided by some nifty BABIPs of .364 and .354. Although he held his own against both right-handed and left-handed pitchers, his OPS was .862 against righties and just .721 against southpaws. He should open 2010 back in high-A but could move up to double-A as he prepares to breathe down Anderson’s neck.

8. Derrik Gibson, SS, Short-Season
DOB: December 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 2nd round – Delaware HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

A personal favorite of mine, Gibson received his second straight year of short-season ball and looked over-matched in a brief 14-game trial in low-A ball. In short-season ball, Gibson hit .290/.395/.380 and had a .386 wOBA in 255 at-bats. He showed good patience for a future top-of-the-order MLB hitter with a walk rate of 12.9% and his strikeout rate was reasonable at 16.5%. He’s performed poorly against southpaws for two straight seasons (.566, .621 OPS). After nabbing 14 steals in as many tries in ’08, Gibson was successful in 28 of his 33 tries in ’09. Defensively, he’s expected to move off of shortstop, which takes a bite out of his value.

9. Ryan Kalish, OF, Double-A
DOB: March 1988 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2006 9th round – New Jersey HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

I’m a little more bearish on Kalish than a lot of evaluators because he has yet to do anything really spectacular in four seasons. The outfielder had a nice year in ’09 and he hit .304/.434/.513 in 115 high-A at-bats. Moved up to double-A, his numbers normalized a bit with a line of .271/.341/.440. At the senior level, he posted a walk rate of 9.6% and a strikeout rate of 22.3%, which is a tad high given his career power numbers. I will certainly jump on the Kalish train in 2010 if he can maintain a solid batting average while also at least equaling his ’09 power numbers. After stealing 21 bases in 27 attempts in ’09, he could develop into a 20-20 player in the Majors if everything clicks. With everything said, I wouldn’t be shocked if he broke out in a big way in 2010 and made me look foolish for doubting him.

10. Michael Bowden, RHP, Majors
DOB: September 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 supplemental 1st round – Illinois HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, plus curveball, change-up

The knock on Bowden is that he’s not flashy. But there is something to be said for consistent and reliable. Pitching at double-A or higher since ’07, Bowden has posted solid numbers, although his FIP broke 4.00 for the first time while pitching for triple-A (4.08). Even so, he took advantage of some luck (.262 BABIP) and allowed just 106 hits in 126.1 innings, while showing OK control (3.35 BB/9) and a modest strikeout rate (6.27 K/9). He’ll do himself a favor if he can get the ball down in the zone more often and increase his ground-ball rate from the 31.1% he posted in triple-A. Called up to Boston to eat up some innings in the bullpen, Bowden did not have much fun – or luck. His 9.56 ERA was softened by his 5.16 FIP and he posted a LOB% rate of 48.4.

Up Next: The Philadelphia Phillies

Over the weekend, in a thread over at Tango’s blog, the idea of a “Sabermetric Library” was raised. As noted over there, one of the positives of the academic journal process is to catalog the work that has been done, making it easily searchable for future readers who are not following the discussion in real time. The statistical analysis crowd doesn’t have that kind of formal structure, which makes it difficult for those who come later to catch up on what has already been done.

Rather than employing a full time “librarian” to keep up with the most recent work, I thought perhaps we could just attempt to crowd-source this idea. So, that’s what we’ll attempt to do in this thread.

In the comments below, I’d like to encourage you to think back to influential articles that you’ve read about the game, and if you can, link to them. If they were written a book, link to it at a particular bookseller of your choice that carries it. If you can quickly summarize the conclusion, even better.

It doesn’t have to be an epic research piece that changed the face of analysis (such as Voros’ piece on DIPS), though those obviously fit in here, too. But if there is a blog post somewhere that explained something in a way that allowed you to understand it for the first time, link to that. If there was an interesting discussion on a popular topic (Blyleven for the HOF, maybe), then link to that.

The goal would be to populate the comments with enough resources to allow someone to go through and read a Best Of The Sabermetric Community collection of writings. There are a lot of good writers out there doing good work, but given the size of the internet, some of it can get lost in the shuffle. Let’s preserve the pieces that deserve to be kept alive, and at the same time, create a resource for those who come along in the future to find out about the work that has already been done.

In order to keep the layout easy to read, I would ask that you refrain from commentary about this post. Please limit comments to the format of linking to important pieces, with necessary comment about that piece as an abstract of sorts. If this takes off as I hope it does, we’ll do a discussion thread on another day about potentially culling the list, giving space for people to argue for or against any of the linked pieces below.

Interestingly enough, one name that hasn’t seen any play whatsoever this offseason is that of Gabe Gross. Surely, Gross isn’t anything approaching a household name, as the roles he’s played on first the Milwaukee Brewers and then the Tampa Bay Rays have been relatively minor. Still, in only 935 plate appearances over the last three years, Gross has compiled 3.8 wins above replacement, combining well above average fielding with an average bat in the corners of the outfield. So why hasn’t his name popped up at all?

Honestly, it’s hard to say. Gross will be 31 for most of this season, which is probably his biggest red flag. He’s also coming off his worst hitting year since he joined the Brewers in 2006, as his .306 wOBA was only good for a 86 wRC+. Also, his excellent glove (+21 UZR in RF over 196 DG since 2007) is not as valued in a corner outfield spot as it would be at a premium position like CF or 2B.

And yet, even in this down season, Gross still was worth a pro-rated 1.5 wins per 600 plate appearances. CHONE and Marcel both expect for him to return to roughly average with the bat, and even accounting for regression on defense, Gross is a good bet for another 1.5 WAR/150 G season. It seems we are no closer than when we started to answering our question.

It’s possible that Gross or his agent are holding out for a contract with some sort of significant guaranteed money similar to or greater than his 2009 salary of $1.3M. With teams still waiting to hear about their arbitration hits and the fact that on many teams he would be relegated to a 4th outfielder position, all combined with the continued downturn in the market for wins, Gross is in a poor position to ask for even a semi-large contract.

Eventually, some team will land a great asset in Gross, as no raise he gets will approach the $5M-$7M value that he is likely to provide. It’s only a matter of time until we find out which team that is.

Three cats who found new scratching posts this weekend. Jason Giambi, Matt Stairs, and Doug Davis.

I have little to add, other than I hope Padres fans have ordered their shirts.

Jason Giambi’s future as a baseball player was very much in doubt five months ago. His .316 wOBA with the Athletics was a confluence between poor luck on balls in play, decreased power, and the massive ballpark in which he batted most days. A switch to the National League and a .357 BABIP reignited the (now) 39-year-old, carrying him to a .445 wOBA with the Rockies over 31 plate appearances.

The former A.L. MVP with a gray-infested beard appeared in 19 games with the Rockies and averaged a little over one plate appearance per game, hitting well when called upon. Clearly the numbers are close to irrelevant. A week’s worth of plate appearances just isn’t worth much. We know that most hitters see their offensive numbers suffer as a pinch hitter relative to their full-time playing numbers. That makes it even more unlikely Giambi will come anywhere near his initial N.L. debut in 2010.

CHONE and Marcel expect wOBA of .344 and .340 next season, seemingly reasonable given his age but also a full-time role within a hitter’s park. Over the last three seasons Giambi has wOBA of (least recent to most recent) .349/.377/.327. Keep in mind sample sizes when looking at his decisively interesting platoon splits – he’s hit lefties better over the last three years – 290 at-bats leaves a lot of room for fluctuation and any projections heading forward should regress that total towards league average.

The deal is worth close to $1.8M which … never say never; after all, nobody saw Giambi finishing below replacement level last season. It’ll be interesting to see how many plate appearances Giambi can find behind Todd Helton and whether his Athletics’ stint was more to do with his age than his environment.

Mark it down. January 22nd of 2010, the impossible has happened. Tony Reagins actually found a trading partner for Gary Matthews Jr! Obviously Omar Minaya couldn’t just sit back and let Dayton Moore sign Rick Ankiel and not react. No, surely The Contest trumps all and Minaya must have immediately begun searching out a way to put the hammer down on Moore. Of course; Matthews! Was Vernon Wells not available?

The above was the instant reaction for most people I saw as the news worked its way around the internet community. Taking a step back though, and much like yesterday’s Ankiel signing, I don’t think this is an awful deal for the Mets.

The details as currently reported says that the Angels are eating $21.5 million of the $23.5 million owed to Matthews over the next two years so the Mets are essentially getting Matthews on a 2-year, $2 million contract. In return, the Mets are shipping Brian Stokes back to Anaheim.

Now, Matthews Jr is awful. Do not assume I am defending him here, though he might get a minor tick better playing CF again. Stokes is not good either however. He struck out 45 and walked 38 last season and overall, he’s a below average 30-year-old reliever. He’s also coming off a decent season, ERA-wise and set to make about a half-million in 2010 and then enter arbitration.

End result? The Mets pay Matthews $1 million in 2010, expected to produce pretty much nothing. The Angels pay Stokes about $0.5 million in 2010, expected to produce pretty much nothing. The Mets certainly could have found a better player to be Carlos Beltran insurance, and so the wasted roster spot has some cost, but that would be based on how the Mets actually utilize Matthews rather than a variable of the trade itself. In terms of just this particular swap, I feel that its impact to both teams bottom line win and salary totals are close to a wash. It might be a pointless trade, but I don’t see either team getting the upper hand.

Earlier this week, I discussed the Three True Outcomes leaders for 2007-2009. Briefly, the “Three True Outcomes” are the walk, the strikeout, and the home run, since they reflect the batter-pitcher relationship without the interference of defense, batted ball luck, and the like. While Three True Outcomes masters like Jack Cust, Adam Dunn, and Carlos Pena are rightly revered, and all the players on that list are or have been good hitters, the players on the other end of the list — those who, over the last three seasons, have the fewest percentage of true outcomes — are a more diverse group. Some baseball fans (and executives) might even prefer this kind of hitter, as they “put more pressure on the defense” by putting the ball in play more often.

Without further ado, here are the give leading “pressurizers” of 2007-2009, ranked from the one with the highest amount of true outcomes to the lowest.

5. Ichiro Suzuki
TTO%: 15.4
TTO: 328
PA-iBB: 2123
HR: 23
uBB:92
SO: 213

No big surprise here. Ichiro’s gotta get old eventually, but he keeps hovering around 5 WAR. Ichiro’s ridiculous BABIP skills make him one of those guys that give projection systems all sorts of problems. Royals fans are hoping Rick Ankiel magically turns out to be like that, too. He’s super-duper fast like Ichiro, right?

4. Miguel Tejada
TTO%: 15.3
TTO: 289
PA-iBB: 1894
HR: 45
uBB: 69
SO: 175

Now here’s a guy who aged quickly (thank you, thank you, I’ll be here all week). Tejada was signed as a free agent by Baltimore and had an outstanding first season there in 2004 both at the plate (+30) and in the field (+8 defense at shortstop). He was never as good as that again, and was predictably offloaded to the Astros after the 2007 season. He’s still got value, and his price will probably be right for a team that needs to fill a gap at third base.

3. Placido Polanco
TTO%: 12.7
TTO: 247
PA-iBB: 1939
HR: 27
uBB: 101
SO: 119

Polanco, one of the more underrated players in baseball during his prime, shows that the three true outcomes aren’t everything. Case in point: Player A has 21.0 WAR during the “FanGraphs Era.” Player B has 28.1. Player B is Placido Polanco. Who is Player A?

Click here for the answer.

2. Yuniesky Betancourt
TTO%: 12.5
TTO: 206
PA-iBB: 1654
HR: 22
uBB: 50
SO: 134

There isn’t much to say here other than to update what I wrote about this time last year: If anyone knows why it’s important to put pressure on the defense, it’s a shortstop who put up a -21 season in the field in 2009.

1. Juan Pierre
TTO%: 10.7
TTO: 167
PA-iBB: 1556
HR: 1
uBB:78
SO: 88

Pierre was a really good player back in 2003 and 2004 with the Marlins, and his 2006 in Chicago was good as well. Nyjer Morgan and Brett Gardner might be decent contemporary comparisons. Now, like Scott Podsednik, he’s sort of an anti-Ichiro. His (past) speed and baserunning can convince a GM that he’s an ideal candidate to be a “center fielder put in the corner who will make up for his bat with his defense.” Unfortunately, his range isn’t what it used to be, his arm can’t make up for it, and his speed is no longer adequate to sneak on base on dink hits, which means his flagging baserunnig skills also aren’t as useful as they used to be. I guess he’s in the AL Central now, so that means more games against middle infielders like, um, Yuniesky Betancourt.

In honor of these players, I leave you with last year’s Beyond the Box Score Graphs Contest Winner, which seems fitting.