General Manager: Theo Epstein
Farm Director: Mike Hazen
Scouting Director: Amiel Sawdaye

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-slot signees ($200,000 or more)

2009 1st Round: Reymond Fuentes, OF, Puerto Rico HS
2. Alex Wilson, RHP, Texas A&M
3. David Renfroe, SS, Mississippi HS
7x – Madison Younginer, RHP, South Carolina HS
9x – Kendal Volz, RHP, Baylor
10x – Brandon Jacobs, OF, Georgia HS
11x – Jason Thompson, SS, Tennessee HS
26x – Miles Head, 3B, Georgia HS

Despite the possibility of being hamstrung during each amateur draft due to consistently-late picks from finishing with such a good record each season, this first-class organization uses its considerable finances to award above-slot contacts to deserving talents. Over the past four drafts, the club has handed out 19 above-slot deals worth $200,000 or more, the highest number from any one club.

Considered a bit of a project before the ’09 draft, Fuentes enjoyed his debut in rookie ball by hitting .290/.331/.379 in 145 at-bats. He showed some rough edges in his base running ability and was caught five times in 14 attempts. He could also stand to be more patient at the plate after posting a walk rate of 4.4%.

Health woes prevented Wilson from receiving the kind of money he was looking for and the organization may have a real steal after handing him less than $500,000. Wilson appeared healthy in his debut, as he made 10 starts and allowed just 10 hits in 36.0 innings (He was on a pitch count) in short-season ball. He showed solid control with a walk rate of 1.75 BB/9 and his strikeout rate was good at 8.25 K/9. Wilson also did not allow a home run. Despite his 10 starts, the right-hander profiles as a late-game reliever, if he can maintain his peak fastball velocity for an entire season.

A $750,000 contract swayed Jacobs away from a football ride at Auburn University. After signing, though, he appeared in just six games. Despite his football-sized body, he’s an excellent athlete, but raw as a baseball player. Thompson had just one plate appearance after signing and he walked. Head received 32 plate appearances in ’09 and hit just .103 with eight strikeouts.

Youngsters Renfroe, Younginer, and Volz did not appear in a pro game after turning pro so they’ll make their debuts in 2010. Renfroe, a two-way prep player, has the highest upside of the trio and could reach low-A ball in ’10 with a strong spring performance although he’s more likely to begin the year in extended spring training.

2008 1st Round: Casey Kelly, RHP/SS, Florida HS
1S. Bryan Price, RHP, Rice
2. Derrik Gibson, SS, Delaware HS
3. Stephen Fife, RHP, Utah
4x – Pete Hissey, OF, Pennsylvania HS
5x – Ryan Westmoreland, OF, Rhode Island HS
6x – Ryan Lavarnway, C, Yale
13x – Tyler Wilson, RHP, Georgia HS
27x – Hunter Cervenka, LHP, Texas HS
35x – Carson Blair, SS, Texas HS

The club nabbed three Top 10 prospects with this draft: Kelly, Gibson, and Westmoreland. Price was traded to Cleveland in the Victor Martinez deal. Fife has shown some potential, but the ground-ball pitcher was hurt by a high BABIP in high-A ball in ’09. Hissey is a speedy sleeper to keep an eye on, especially if he can either trim his strikeout rate (23.8%) or improve his strength (.068 ISO). In other words, he needs to commit to being a slash-and-run guy, or drive the ball more.

Lavarnway had one of the quietest 21-homer seasons in ’09, which was odd considering his high-profile organization. He also slugged 35 doubles and posted a .255 ISO rate, while maintaining a solid batting average of .285, thanks to a high (especially for a catcher) BABIP of .348. On the downside, his value takes a hit because he’s probably not going to stick behind the plate.

Wilson, Cervenka, and Blair have all under-performed, but Blair’s value is increasing as he makes the conversion to backstop.

The club took a run at prep star Alex Meyer, a Boras client, in the 20th round after he dropped out of the first couple of rounds due to signability concerns, but he followed through on his commitment to the University of Kentucky.

2007 1st Round: Nick Hagadone, LHP, Washington
1S. Ryan Dent, SS, California HS
2. Hunter Morris, 1B, Alabama HS (Did not sign)
3. Brock Huntzinger, RHP, Indiana HS
5x – Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Texas HS
6x – Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Florida HS
7x – David Mailman, 1B, North Carolina HS
16x – Austin Bailey, RHP, Alabama HS
23x – Drake Britton, LHP, Texas HS

The club went prep crazy in ’07 and the only player signed to a $200,000+ deal from a college program, Nick Hagadone, was traded to Cleveland last season. From the group above, only Rizzo currently projects as a Top 10 talent.

Dent has reached high-A ball, but his bat looks like it’s going to produce utility-player offense. Huntzinger, who posted a 3.18 FIP in low-A ball, is a solid sleeper candidate in 2010. Mailman is another sleeper if he can improve his consistency after posting a wOBA of .379 in the first half of the year in low-A ball, compared to .242 in the second half in high-A.

Middlebrooks had a respectable first full year in the minors, but his strikeout rate of 32.9% needs to come way down for him to succeed at higher levels. Bailey (shoulder, suspension) appeared in just one game in two seasons, and Britton is recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Hunter Strickland was a great value in the 18th round, but he was traded to Pittsburgh last season in the Adam LaRoche deal. The club also took a run at two players that slid due to signability concerns: Yasmani Grandal, and Nick Tepesch, but both players went to college.

2006 1st Round: Jason Place, OF, South Carolina HS
1. Daniel Bard, RHP, North Carolina
1S. Kris Johnson, LHP, Wichita State
1S. Caleb Clay, RHP, Alabama HS
2. Justin Masterson, RHP, San Diego State
3. Aaron Bates, 1B, North Carolina State
3. Bryce Cox, RHP, Rice
x- Ryan Kalish, OF, New Jersey HS
x- Ty Weeden, C, Oklahoma HS
x- Lars Anderson, 1B, California HS

Bard is the closer-in-waiting in Boston, and will likely serve as the set-up man to Jonathan Papelbon in 2010. Place has been all over the, er, place with his performances but it’s hard to project him as a full-time big leaguer due to his low power output and high strikeout numbers. Masterson was traded to Cleveland in ’09. Anderson had a rough ’09 season, but he’s still a Top-10 talent, as is Kalish.

The club missed with Johnson and Weeden. Clay has produced underwhelming numbers, but he’s still young. Bates made his MLB debut in ’09, due to a lack of first base depth in the upper minors and is basically a quad-A player. Cox’ value has diminished to that of a middle reliever at the MLB level.

Outfielder Josh Reddick was a steal in the 17th round and he is on the club’s Top 10 prospect list, due out on Monday. First baseman Matt LaPorta, a college junior, turned down the club as a 14th-rounder and was a first-round pick by Milwaukee in ’07 as a senior. Nick Hill would have been a nice grab in the 47th round, but he went to Seattle in the ’07 draft and could appear in the Majors in 2010.

Up Next: The Boston Red Sox Top 10 Prospects

Edit, Friday night: Thanks everyone for your questions. There are more questions here than I anticipated getting, and many of them tread similar ground, so I’ll answer anything I couldn’t get to today in my next post.

Being FanGraphs’ new resident Japanese baseball guy, I’d like to get a better sense of what this audience wants to know about that aspect of the game.

So, if you have any questions about Japanese or Asian baseball, leave ’em in the comments.

I will make my best effort to answer all (serious) questions. I’ll check back periodically throughout the day, and answer whatever I can off the top of my head immediately. Questions requiring more research will be answered in a later post.

Okay, enough of the ground rules, fire away!

Dayton Moore’s run of transactions since taking over as Royals GM has been so bad that the natural reaction to any Kansas City move now is scorn and derision. So, not surprisingly, when it came out last night that they had signed Rick Ankiel to a one-year contract, there were critics who immediately pointed to the career .311 on base percentage and laughed. I think this is a good deal for the Royals, though, and Moore should get credit for making his team better.

Ankiel’s story is well known, so we’ll skip the whole pitcher-turning-into-a-hitter aspect and just focus on the last few years. As an outfielder, he’s displayed a couple of strong skills – serious power, above average range, and of course, a strong throwing arm. He’s rough around the edges (most obviously with pitch recognition), which is to be expected from a guy who spent most of his life training to pitch instead of hit, but the strengths outweighed the weaknesses.

In 2007, he posted a .364 wOBA, then followed it up with a .360 wOBA in 2008. The power dwarfed the relative lack of walks, and he was a well above average hitter. Last year was a disaster, certainly – the power dried up and his wOBA fell to .288, acceptable only for a middle infielder or a catcher. But injured players don’t often play well, and Ankiel was clearly at less than 100 percent for most of the season.

Projecting guys coming off of injuries is always harder. You don’t know to what extent their performance suffered due to the injury, so you have to give that season less weight than you usually would, even though it is the most recent data point. For Ankiel, I think realistically, we can expect him to post a .350ish wOBA if he’s healthy, even though the projection systems will spit out a lower number than that.

For $3 milllion, that’s a good piece. And unlike last year’s splurge on a veteran power hitter, Ankiel actually fills a hole for Kansas City. They simply didn’t have a right fielder before this move, so Ankiel is not blocking off any other talented players. He simply makes their team better, and does so at a low cost.

Dayton Moore has made a lot of bad moves, but this is not one of them. He made his team better without spending significant resources to do so. Kudos to him for a nice signing.

Five years from now, there will be dozens of new Major League pitchers succeeding in the Major Leagues with the same profile. Each will seem a surprise in his own right, discounted at some level in the Minor Leagues due to the perception of bad performance. They will be succeeding because their batting average on balls in play is lower than it has been in their professional career, and because they don’t walk many batters. They will not have been top 10 prospects, but they will be a steady presence on every Major League roster, a set-up man, a middle reliever, a fourth starter.

They will each throw a sinker. This week, I have used a sample of sinker pitchers to show that this subset of pitcher is underrated by current prospect evaluation techniques. This is because too rarely we realize, while scouts agree the player has very limited further upside, improved defenses at higher levels should yield better results. Today, with the lessons learned this week, I want to turn the attention to the future. I have culled the minor leagues and found 10 players, who I present alphabetically, that I think could be the next generation of Major League sinkerballers.

In the interest of saving space, I’m going to tell you about almost all of them in a paragraph, because this type of pitcher has very specific similarities. These guys, of course, all have very good sinkers around 90 mph, and have been carefully selected due to consistent high groundball rates. Their breaking ball is solid, but it could certainly be more consistent. They struggle against left-handed batters, and as a result, future success – especially in a rotation – is contingent on an improved change-up. And all of them have given me reason to believe that their BABIP will come down at some point and, with it, their H/9 and ERA.

Please note that groundball percentages and BABIP numbers come from Jeff Sackmann’s incomparable Minor League Splits site. Also, some of these players now have their college splits available, if you click on the red number on their Career Stats page. A great tool keeps getting better.

Kyle Allen, 20, New York Mets

Level   BB/9   K/9   HR/9   GB%    BABIP
Low-A   3.7    8.0   0.6    55.0   .289

The youngest of the ten, Allen also has one of the best change-ups, which led to a .508 OPS against left-handed batters. His defense was pretty good for him this year, so if he can cut down on the walks and tighten the slider, watch out.

Randy Boone, 25, Toronto Blue Jays

Level    BB/9   K/9   HR/9   GB%    BABIP
AA/AAA   3.0    6.4   0.5    53.6   .320

I do hope the Blue Jays give Boone a chance, as he’s really located well down in the zone since leaving University of Texas. He does have a nice breaking ball, and doesn’t figure to get more polished. Should be the first starter called up this season, if you ask me.

Shane Dyer, 22, Tampa Bay Rays

Level   BB/9   K/9   HR/9   GB%    BABIP
Low-A   2.8    6.8   0.3    58.1   .360

Really a good representation of players on this list. He didn’t allow any home runs, but Tim Beckham’s Bowling Green defense let down that entire pitching staff. If things get any better on that front this year, Dyer is going to surely cut down that 10.7 H/9.

Stephen Fife, 23, Boston Red Sox

Level   BB/9   K/9   HR/9   GB%    BABIP
A-/A+   1.4    8.9   0.8    55.5   .317

Assuming his days of a sore shoulder are behind him, my favorite player on this list. Still has sink on his fastball up to 93 mph. Fife was a late bloomer at University of Utah, but has shown all three pitches to be plus at times. His defense in High-A wasn’t very good, and I expect him to fly up the Boston prospect rankings this season.

Jason Godin, 25, Kansas City Royals

Level       BB/9   K/9   HR/9   GB%    BABIP
A-/AA/AAA   4.2    7.4   0.3    60.0   .356

Godin came back slow after a facial fracture ended his season short in 2008, but he’s shown signs of really making good on that fifth round choice in 2006. I truly believe the Royals should be aggressive with Godin, who has a career 58.9 groundball percentage. The tools to be a viable Major League reliever all seem there to me.

Liam Hendriks, 21, Minnesota Twins

Level   BB/9   K/9   HR/9   GB%    BABIP
Low-A   2.0    8.4   0.4    57.5   .354

Hendriks missed 2008 with a broken back, but didn’t show any signs of injury in his 14 starts last season. Instead, all he showed was some bad luck. Hendriks was a choice of Australia’s last World Baseball Classic team, and is more advanced than the Twins handling has shown. An assignment to Fort Myers, with a quick trigger to Double-A, should be in the cards. Note: fellow Australian and Cubs prospect Ryan Searle was a finalist for this article.

Luke Putkonen, 24, Detroit Tigers

Level   BB/9   K/9   HR/9   GB%    BABIP
Low-A   2.8    6.9   0.2    56.9   .318

Putkonen was not known for his fastball movement at the University of North Carolina, and had a 1.52 GO/AO in his final year there. But he has reinvented himself as a sinker pitcher, and had a fantastic year in the Midwest League. There’s no semblance of a third pitch, so I think he’s a reliever in the end, but he could be a good one.

Stephen Sauer, 23, Chicago White Sox

Level   BB.9   K/9   HR/9   GB%    BABIP
Low-A   1.2    7.8   0.3    56.3   .363

This guy managed a 3.36 ERA in Kannapolis because he was so good at limiting home runs and walks, but look at his BABIP! His hit rate seems to have scared off prospect evaluators, as he’s not listed as one of Baseball America’s top 30 White Sox prospects. But his sinker has always been good (2.64 GO/AO at ASU) and his slider is average enough. With a good change-up, Sauer can be just as good as Jon Garland ever was.

Kyle Waldrop, 24, Minnesota Twins

Level   BB/9   K/9   HR/9   GB%    BABIP
A+/AA   2.5    5.0   0.2    60.1   .322

I’m not sure about this one, but Waldrop’s groundball numbers were just so good. They were good before he had Tommy John surgery that cost him the 2008 season, but they were never above 60%. This is a guy that has had to reinvent himself since he was a first-round pick, and with that pedigree, should be given a chance to succeed with the organization. He seems to have the savvy to be able to do just that.

Trey Watten, 23, Milwaukee Brewers

Level   BB/9   K/9   HR/9   GB%    BABIP
Low-A   3.9    6.5   0.6    56.7   .329

Watten is still pretty new to pitching, but his arm strength landed him a spot in the seventh round of the 2008 Draft. His debut season went well, but his defense just didn’t do good enough work. He’s the rawest player on the list, but if the command and change-up come along, his athleticism could make him the best.

With their rotation consisting of Yovani Gallardo, Manny Parra, Dave Bush, Jeff Suppan, and Nobody entering this offseason, it was clear that the Brewers would have to make at least one move. Given the lack of talent in the rotation and lack of depth outside of it, a second move would probably be required. The first move was the Brewers acquisition of Randy Wolf in December. The second came on Wednesday as the Brewers picked up Doug Davis on a 1 year, 4.25M contract with a mutual option for 2011.

Davis is an underwhelming talent, but he’s managed to get outs over his career. Despite a fastball that averages 85 MPH, Davis manages to get a decent number of strikeouts – at least 6.5 K/9 since 2004. He does tend to nibble, and as such he gives up quite a few walks, usually somewhere in the 3.75-4.5 range.

As such, since his K/BB ratio tops out around 2.0 and is usually closer to 1.5, Davis has to keep the ball in the park to be effective. He doesn’t give up many fly balls – 35.4% last year versus a 34.7% career average – and as such, his 1.11 HR/9 rate was the highest he’s seen in years. With some regression, that should lead to an FIP in the 4.60-4.70 range, as projected by both CHONE and Marcel. That makes Davis about a 1.7 win player in 160 innings pitched.

More importantly to the Brewers success will be how the rest of the pitching staff is handled. The first three spots will certainly go to Yovani Gallardo, Wolf, and Davis. Parra, Bush, and Suppan will then compete for the last two spots. It will be tempting for the Brewers to hand the two spots to Bush and Suppan, who will receive a combined 17.75M (roughly, based on Bush’s arbitration case) in 2010, and either start the 400,000 dollar man Parra in AAA or the bullpen.

This would be a deadly mistake for a team with playoff aspirations. The Brewers are roughly an 80-82 win true-talent team with the addition of Davis. That’s about the lower bound for any team to have a chance at the playoffs. What the Brewers will need, then, is luck in the form of health and players developing at the major league level – Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder to continue to improve as sluggers, Alcides Escobar and Carlos Gomez to add some hitting to their tremendous gloves, and, most pertinent to the subject at hand, improvement out of their league-worst starting rotation from 2009.

Suppan is projected for 1 run above replacement by CHONE. He hasn’t had an FIP better than 4.40 since 2004. His fastball has lost 0.5 MPH since he joined Milwaukee. His walk rates have been steadily increasing. He is 35 years old. Upside does not exist here. Bush is just simply better, although he has had struggles with home runs recently, and Parra has tremendous upside, and even at the lower bound of his projections, he’s about equal to the 50th percentile projection for Suppan.

The Brewers need to put their most talented team on the field without worrying about who is receiving what paycheck. The Brewers have little hope of reaching a wild card berth without the talent of Manny Parra on the field, and Doug Melvin must not let the mistake of signing Jeff Suppan haunt him any further than it already has.

The Phillies agreed to terms on a three-year deal with Joe Blanton today. The salary breakdown is reportedly $7 million this season and $8.5 million in each of 2011 and ’12 for a total of $24 million.

There are obviously going to be some people talking about the Phillies’ trade of Cliff Lee, primary for financial reasons, and then subsequent retention of Joe Blanton. Cliff Lee makes $9 million this year, just $2 million more than Joe Blanton will be paid. Obviously Blanton now comes with a three year commitment while Lee is on just a single year and is destined for a big payday next winter. I still think I would have held onto Lee and gone with a Cole Hamels, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee front of the rotation.

Focusing on Blanton, though, he has consistently been a slightly above-average pitcher, aside from his very good 2007 campaign in which he really limited the walks. CHONE projects some improvement in Blanton’s home run rate, driving his FIP to the low 4s, but given the ballpark that he calls home, I am not so sure that regression is going to come. Blanton is still young, having just turned 29, so his contract only covers the age 29-31 seasons.

The first year of the contract was to be an arbitration season, so from Philadelphia’s perspective they are paying for about 2.8 market seasons of Joe Blanton. Given roughly a 2.5-win projection, I would have called a three-year deal fair at around the $26 to $28 million mark. Coming in at $24 million strikes me as a win for the Phillies, though not by so much as to make Joe Blanton and his agent the butt of any jokes.

In fact, given the short term of the deal and Blanton’s youth, he gets to re-hit the market at age 31, still enough time to land another big money contract. All in all, and from a strict vacuum, I like this deal for both sides. I just still don’t get why it seems like the Phillies chose Blanton over Cliff Lee.

When Winston Abreu reached the Majors last season he did in part because of an out-clause in his contract, but also because he earned the trip. Disney executives were not in charge of his Major League stint, and after six innings and eight runs allowed, Abreu was on his way back to the minors.

Abreu is a frail 6’2” righty from the Dominican. His middle name is Leonardo, but it may as well be Quada. Since joining the Braves Gulf Coast League team in 1994 as a 17-year-old, Abreu has spent time with the following organizations:

Kansas City
Chicago (NL)
Arizona
Los Angeles (NL)
Baltimore
Washington
Tampa Bay

An avid traveler, Abreu has also spent time in Mexico and Japan. All told, Abreu has appeared in 210 Triple-A games, thrown nearly 300 innings and done so while striking out 11.5 and walking 4 per nine. Abreu’s 44 innings in the Majors are ugly. Kissed with gopheritis that doesn’t appear in the minors and smells of small sample size, Abreu has a 7.31 ERA and 5.31 xFIP. Nevertheless, CHONE still believes Abreu has the wherewithal to post a 3.73 FIP this season.

Most cases like these involve a guy with no stuff who makes his living in Triple-A by working the margins and tricking batters of lower competence into chasing garbage. Abreu isn’t like most cases. He has velocity and even an excellent slider, but he lacks fastball command. Abreu’s inability to locate the heater makes it difficult to crack the whip with his slider in favorable counts. This is nothing new for high-strikeout, high-walk relievers. In recent years, pitchers like Grant Balfour, Matt Thornton, and David Aardsma have taken a similar recipe, turning Sam’s Choice into champagne for their respective teams.

Can Abreu take that step? Probably not. His 33rd birthday arrives in early April; could all of those teams really be wrong about one player? Still, it’s hard to root against him. When Abreu was designated for assignment by the Indians last season, he rejected their optional assignment to Triple-A and chose to become a free agent so he could sign with an organization that he felt treated him fairly. That doesn’t seem unusual, but this a career Triple-A journeyman who decided against 40-man pay in favor of respect. You don’t see that every day.

In my last dispatch, I introduced and intimated that I would submit for the reader’s consideration what one — if one were feeling bold — what one might call an All-Joy Team. In the what follows, I intend to continue that effort.

Having spent the last two days in solitude, on a diet of only water, prayerful introspection, and printed-out spreadsheets, I have come to some conclusions about what an enterprise such as this entails.

First is that it’d be imprudent to release the names of the entire All-Joy Team at once. Why? you might ask. Well, because to do so might cause all our hearts to explode from too much beauty — like we were all, collectively, watching a plastic bag caught in a swirling wind. The last thing this world needs is a bunch of people’s hearts exploding because of a sweet baseball article. Embarrassing!

Second is that, beyond the numbers and the commentariat’s very courteous and heart-felt suggestions, I have also utilized — sometimes to a greater, sometimes to a lesser degree — the faculty of Intuition. I’ve done this for a couple reasons. For one, because it’s inherent to an exercise such as this one, where how a player makes us feel is of great concern. I often think that when baseball writers are talking about if a player is good or not, what they really mean to say how the player makes them feel. Like anytime any New York sportswriter has ever said “ARod is bad at baseball” — which, they say that, I think — what that guy really means is “I don’t like ARod for some reason.” The latter of those comments is totally legitimate. The problem is when the sportswriter gets confused, when he tries to make a comment about talent, as opposed to taste.

And for two — in re Intuition — I’ve used it because I have a great deal of respect for that giant computer called the human brain. Like, did you know it can cure ichthyosis? I didn’t. But it can, apparently. Also, it does a lot of other things that are pretty amazing. Like allows us to breathe and digest without great mental effort.

Third is that — and this is a little bit similar to the second point — but third is that the second an enterprise such as this one begins to feel like work, the second that the constraints become a burden, the magic of the endeavor is lost. As my main man Ralph Waldo was accustomed to saying, sometimes you’ve just gotta write “Whim” on the lintels of your frigging door-post. It’s in that spirit that, on occasion, I have said — I will say — “Funk dat.” It’s also in that spirit that I will be submitting players in no particular order.

To remind the reader, here is the set of criteria with which I’ll be picking:

1. An MLB player whose advanced metrics (i.e. EqA, wOBA, VORP, UZR – really anything that attempts to improve upon AVG, HR, and RBIs) suggest greater production than is commonly perceived.

2. An MLB player whose peripheral numbers (i.e. xFIP, PrOPS, tRA) suggest greater production in near future.

3. Either an MLB part-timer or older (27 and up) minor leaguer whose production suggests probable success in expanded MLB role.

4. A younger (under 27) minor leaguer, but not top prospect, whose minor league numbers suggest success at the MLB level.

5. A player who demonstrates vigorously what Americans, quoting French poorly, call je ne sais quoi.

Furthermore, before I forget to say it, the idea is to submit an entire 25 man roster that reflects players that are currently of interest.

I’ll get started with the team in earnest next week. To whet the appetite, though, I present my number one guy here (relevant categories in parentheses):

RF: Daniel Nava, Boston (3, 5)
I don’t care what anyone says, Nava’s the player about whom I’m more excited than any other right now. Last year, as a 26-year-old, he started the season in High-A ball. That doesn’t exactly scream “prospect,” right? You know what else doesn’t exactly scream “prospect”? Everything else about him. Regard, from Sox Prospects:

Initially cut as a walk on at Santa Clara, Nava went to JuCo and excelled, ultimately returning to Santa Clara for his senior season. He went undrafted and again proved the doubters wrong by doing extremely well in independent baseball in 2007, earning the spot as Baseball America’s #1 independent prospect. He then proceeded to win the California League batting crown in 2008, albeit at the age of 25. Following an early-season injury in 2009, he went on to dominate the Carolina League and the Eastern League in limited at bats.

Despite the absence of anything like a draft pedigree, Nava posted an MLE of .274/.355/.407 across High-A and Double-A last year — that according to Minor League Splits. Baseball Prospectus rates his 124 Double-A ABs as a major league equivalent of .298/.374/.460 — the best in the Eastern League. The fact is that Nava has never played poorly, regardless of where he’s been. Plus, he went to Santa Clara — i.e. Steve Nash’s alma mater — which I think adds to the mystique somehow.

Will Nava play for the Red Sox this year? Probably not. What’d be nice, though, is to see him traded to a second division-type team and get some playing time. CHONE has him at .250/.328/.365 with a -3 run glove. That’s not so great. How about my heart, though? My heart has him forecasted as like a .311/.403/.487 with plus fielding.

My heart versus CHONE: A battle to the death!!!

The Angels signed Joel Pineiro to a two-year, 16 million dollar deal. Seemingly out of nowhere Pineiro had a near-5-win season last year, as his walk and fly ball rates were microscopic. He is due for some regression as no one can be expected to walk on only 1.1 batter per nine. But as I talked about before, I think the change in Pineiro’s pitch use frequencies — throwing more sinkers — insulates him from some regression. Another way of seeing this is the change in the height of Pineiro’s fastballs.

In 2009 Pineiro threw his fastball much lower in the zone than he did previously. This supports the increase in ground balls in 2009.

But one important thing to consider with all those ground balls is the infield defense Pineiro plays in front of. By UZR the Cardinals had just an average defense in 2009, but Pineiro gave up a lower slugging on grounders than the average NL pitcher (0.236 for Pineiro versus 0.256 for average). Using the technique from yesterday’s post I looked at the number and slugging of Pineiro’s ground balls based on their angle compared to average. I took a suggestion of Sal Paradise and got rid of the numbers, so the color is the slugging percentage and the size of the slice is the relative number of grounders to that slice.

Pineiro does much better in slices 3, 4, 7 and 8. These are the slices straight at either the second baseman or the shortstop — the ones with the lowest slugging — and for Pineiro these slices were even better than average. Pineiro got fewer grounders down the right-field line and more down the left-field line, but those down the left-field line had a lower slugging than for the average RHP.

Looking to 2010, Pineiro will most likely pitch in front of an infield of Kendry Morales, Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar and Brandon Wood. The right side of the infield should be good: both Jeff Zimmerman’s UZR projections and Sean Smith’s CHONE defensive projections have the pair at +5 runs together. But the two systems diverge on Aybar and Wood. UZR likes Aybar at short, giving him +7.1 UZR/150 over 2000 innings. Add in regression and aging, and Zimmerman projects +5 in 2010. But CHONE’s defensive projection, which is based on Smith’s TotalZone defensive system, projects him at -2. Wood doesn’t have much time in the Bigs — thus little UZR data — so I think it is better to go with TotalZone, which covers time in the minors. Those numbers are not pretty and CHONE projects him at -6 at third. I might defer to UZR — it draws on the BIS data set which is considered better than the Retrosheet data set on which TotalZone is based — for Aybar, but TotalZone for Wood. In all, the infield will probably be about +5 runs over average. So that should not be an issue for Pineiro.

Pineiro should be a safe bet to provide at least 2.5 wins and has a good shot at maybe four wins in 2010, and then maybe a little bit less in 2011. So the price is solid even in today’s down market. With Hideki Matsui and Pineiro the Angels have added some nice pieces, but with their coming regression and the Mariners’ additions, the AL West should be competitive in 2010.

General Manager: Michael Hill
Farm Director: Brian Chattin
Scouting Director: Stan Meek

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included)

Say what you will about the lack of overall depth in the system beyond the first two or three prospects on this list, but the Marlins organization is one of few clubs that will have drafted (or originally signed) all 10 players on the list. That says something for the organization’s scouts and front office. The club definitely is hurting in the pitching department, but a lot of that comes from rushing its young arms in past seasons.

1. Michael Stanton, OF, Double-A
DOB: November 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 2nd round – California HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

I personally don’t meet many 6’5” 20 year olds in my everyday life, so it’s easy to see where Stanton’s massive power comes from when he takes to the field. The outfielder posted a .283 ISO rate in high-A ball in ’09 and followed that up with a rate of .229 in double-A. Stanton’s numbers dropped pretty significantly in other areas, though, after the promotion. His wOBA went from .433 to .344. He also saw his BABIP drop from .333 to a .288. His strikeout rate jumped from 25.0 to 33.1%, while his walk rate plummeted from 13.5 to 9.4%. Stanton obviously has massive power potential as a future MLBer, but it will be his contact rate that dictates just how big of an impact he has… The good news is that he has plenty of time to make some adjustments in his approach, as he has two more full seasons before he has to be added to the 40-man roster (and begin to burn through his three minor-league options).

2. Logan Morrison, 1B, Double-A
DOB: August 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2005 22nd round – Louisiana HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

If not for an injury-riddled season (He appeared in just 79 games), Morrison probably would have received playing time in Florida at some point during the ’09 season, especially after Gaby Sanchez disappointed in a limited opportunity. Morrison does not project to be a power-hitting first baseman, but he is more of a gap hitter (15-20 homers) that makes consistent contact and hits for a good batting average. He broke out in a big way in ’08 by hitting .332/.402/.494 (.377 BABIP) while playing in a pitchers’ league. In ’09, Morrison hit .277/.411/.442 in 278 at-bats at double-A. Although his average took a hit over the previous season, the first baseman did see his walk rate jump from 10.5 to 18.5%, and his BB/K was an outstanding 1.37. He even has the ability to swipe a few bases with heads-up base running.

3. Matt Dominguez, 3B, High-A
DOB: August 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 1st round – California HS
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

It’s been an up-and-down career for the former first round draft pick but we saw an encouraging sign or two in ’09. Dominguez spent the majority of the year in high-A and hit a modest .262/.333/.420 with a .346 wOBA in 381 at-bats. The third baseman, with a reputation for having a strong glove, has seen his walk rate improve each season since signing in ’07 and it reached a career-high of 9.1% in high-A. It even jumped up to 12.6% during a small-sample-size display (31 games) in double-A at the end of the season. Dominguez also suffered from a low BABIP of .295 in ’09. If he’s going to be an impact player, he needs to improve his work against right-handed pitchers, as his OPS is just .725 (compared to .831 vs southpaws). Dominguez projects to be an average hitting third baseman in the Majors with a good glove.

4. Gaby Sanchez, 1B, Majors
DOB: September 1983 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 4th round – University of Miami
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

Already 26, Sanchez may have missed his window of opportunity to seize the starting first-base gig in Florida. Injuries and inconsistencies plagued him early in ’09, although he finished with solid overall numbers in triple-A: .290/.375/.478 in 314 at-bats. Like Morrison, Sanchez is not your typical slugger, although he has more present power than the younger prospect (.188 ISO in triple-A). His walk rate of 11.5% was actually his lowest rate in four seasons and his strikeout rate was a solid 13.7%. He’s not flashy but Sanchez could be a cheap first base option for a few years. He could also slide into a pinch-hit/utility infield role on a championship-caliber team, as he’s also seen some time at third base (but isn’t very good there).

5. Ryan Tucker, RHP, Triple-A
DOB: December 1986 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2005 supplemental first round – California HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2
Repertoire: 91-96 mph fastball, change-up, slider

You’re not a Florida Marlins’ pitching prospect if you haven’t dealt with injuries, and Tucker got his prerequisite injury out of the way (hopefully) in ’09. He appeared in just six games. The right-hander’s woes came on the heels of a season that saw him make his MLB debut with 13 appearances. He showed his inexperience by allowing a FIP of 6.46 and his fastball was very ineffective, according to his Pitch Type Value score of -2.11 wFB/C. If he can sharpen his command, though, the 91-96 mph pitch could be a real weapon against MLB hitters. He’s spent much of his time pitching out of the rotation, but Tucker appears destined for the bullpen, where he can focus on a two-pitch mix.

6. Bryan Peterson, OF, Double-A
DOB: April 1986 Bats: L Throws: R
Signed: 2007 4th round – University of California-Irvine
MLB ETA: 40-Man Roster: Options:

I highlighted Petersen as a potential breakout candidate for ’09 but it didn’t happen for him. With that said, he still had a nice season in double-A and that breakout could still come. Overall, he hit .297/.368/.413 in 431 at-bats at double-A. Petersen maintained a solid walk rate at 11.4% and his strikeout rate continued to drop, bottoming out at 15.3%. His power output dropped too, though, and his ISO was just .116. He also struggled on the base paths and was caught 12 times in 25 attempts. If Petersen’s power does not improve (He hit 23 homers in ’08), he’ll likely end up as a fourth outfielder in the Reed Johnson mold. The loss of fellow outfield prospect John Raynor to Pittsburgh – during the Rule 5 draft – could help either Petersen or Scott Cousins see playing time in the Majors in 2010. Fun Fact: Petersen went to the same high school as Matt Dominguez (and former Red Sox outfielder Dwight Evans).

7. Scott Cousins, OF, Double-A
DOB: January 1985 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2006 3rd round – University of San Francisco
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3

A flashier but less consistent version of Petersen, Cousins is also a left-handed hitter but, unlike Petersen, he struggled to hit southpaws (.226/.297/.383) and projects as more of a platoon player. Overall, he hit .263/.323/.448 in 482 at-bats at double-A. Cousins showed some pop with an ISO of .185 and he also stole 27 bases in 36 attempts. His walk rate was a little low, but respectable, at 8.0% and his strikeout rate was high at 22.0%. With 31 doubles, 11 triples and 12 homers, he does a little bit of everything.

8. Brad Hand, LHP, Low-A
DOB: March 1990 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2008 2nd round – Minnesota HS
MLB ETA: Late-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-92 mph fastball, curveball, change-up

Hand slipped on a lot of prospect lists after his 2009 season and it’s not hard to understand why, but he still has a lot of potential. The southpaw was drafted out of Minnesota, and northern prospects are traditionally rawer than those that live in climates where they can play ball all year round. And he’s not a soft-tossing lefty carving up beer-league hitters with a mid-80s fastball and pinpoint control; his fastball has shown some modest zip at times. He gave up a lot of hits, with 130 allowed in 127.2 innings, but his 4.23 FIP was better than his 4.86 ERA. His walk rate was 4.65 BB/9 (and he also threw 22 wild pitches) but his strikeout rate was encouraging at 8.60 K/9. His ground-ball rate was just shy of 50%, so with better command he could see that improve. Hand had a foundational season and I look for him to start making a name for himself in 2010… I’m dying to use this headline: Brad… Give yourself a Hand. (That’s the Cistulli in me).

9. Isaac Galloway, OF, Low-A
DOB: October 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 8th round – California HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

I hummed and hawed about Galloway’s inclusion on the Top 10 list. I lean more heavily on stats that any other minor-league writer out there (Law, Goldstein, Callis, Sickels, etc.) so it was hard to justify Galloway as a Top 10 prospect on numbers alone, but his tools certainly make him a player to watch in a rather thin system (as far as depth goes). His wOBA was just .305 and his triple-slash line was an ugly .268/.293/.382 in 340 low-A at-bats (despite a .355 BABIP). Galloway, just 20, posted a sad walk rate at 3.4%, up from 2.0% in his debut in ’08. The ISO was just .119 and his strikeout rate was high at 26.2%. If the organization is smart, it will start Galloway out at low-A again in 2010 with a quick trigger finger to high-A if he shows significant improvement.

10. Jhan Marinez, RHP, High-A
DOB: August 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-94 mph fastball, slider, change-up

Marinez makes the cut thanks to his fastball, which can occasionally creep into the mid-90s. I would, though, like to see him improve on his ground-ball rate, which was just 39.5% in ’09. He deserves credit for reaching high-A in ’09, as he threw just 21.0 innings during the previous two seasons (both in rookie ball). Marinez’ walk rate needs to improve, as it was 4.19% in ’09 but he survived the control issues, in part, because of the .232 BABIP rate that he allowed. The majority of his command/control issues come against left-handed hitters, as he posted a walk rate of 5.40 BB/9 against them this past season. The organization seems to introduce a new hard-throwing reliever each season, so it will be interesting to see if Marinez can “stick” as a solid bullpen option for the future while holding off some other pitchers like Daniel Jennings, Tom Koehler, and Elih Villanueva.

Up Next: The Boston Red Sox