When people talk about teams that have had good off-seasons, the usual names that come up are the Seattle Mariners, the Boston Red Sox, and people that hate the New York Mets. For all of them, this has been a productive winter full of good news. But there’s a new contender in the mix for best off-season in baseball: the Minnesota Twins.

They were able to retain Carl Pavano on a one-year deal, solidifying their starting rotation. They picked up J.J. Hardy on the cheap to solve their shortstop problem. They added Jim Thome as a bat off the bench and to provide depth at DH and, by extension, the corner outfield spots. And they’re reportedly on the verge of signing Joe Mauer to a long-term contract that will keep him in Minnesota for the rest of his career – or most of it, anyway.

They capped their winter yesterday by signing Orlando Hudson to play second base, getting him for the bargain rate of just $5 million. His abilities with the bat, as a switch-hitter no less, make him a perfect fit for what the Twins needed. He’ll slide in between Denard Span and Joe Mauer, breaking up the string of lefties and giving their line-up depth that it did not have before.

With Hudson, Hardy, and Thome, the Twins have improved their offense significantly. By retaining Pavano and watching Francisco Liriano return to form in winter ball, their pitching rotation has the chance to be among the best in baseball. Their bullpen is still good, anchored by a relief ace and some quality arms in front of him.

It’s hard to imagine the Twins could have had a better winter. They used this off-season to upgrade the team, and while the roster isn’t perfect, they are clearly the class of the AL Central at this point. Adding Hudson is just the cherry on top of what was already a very good winter.

It has been well documented that free agent salaries have fallen since last offseason. Right now, the average dollar amount per marginal win that MLB teams are paying is $3.56M for hitters and $3.42M for pitchers, according to the Free Agent Tracker over at Sean Smith’s www.baseballprojection.com.

Has this dollar value persisted throughout the entire signing period, or have we seen a decline since free agents began signing in November? This graph will show us our answer (does not include Orlando Hudson’s contract).

The blue and red lines signify the means for batters and pitchers respectively.

There isn’t any discernible pattern or flow to this market. As we proceed into March, it’s possible that remaining talented players such as Johnny Damon and Felipe Lopez may have to accept below market deals in order to find roles on teams. However, this won’t have a large impact on the market as a whole – based on CHONE projections and the signings that we’ve seen this winter, the market for wins has indeed fallen below $4.0M, and seems to be settling around $3.5M, regardless of when the contract was signed.

As we push towards the end of the recession, we should see an upswing in this amount. If free agent salaries don’t rise towards or above $4.0M next season, it means that baseball (and likely America as a whole) is still feeling the effects of recession. Some indicators do suggest that the recession is headed towards an end (or over already), and so a surge in the winter of 2011 is likely.

There’s been a bit of movement on the free agent market this last week, so let’s project the movers: Ryan Garko, Orlando Hudson, Adam Kennedy.

Garko is moving to Seattle and will provide a right-handed bat opposite Casey Kotchman as well as some power off the bench. The big issue for Seattle has been that his signing may necessitate an 11-man pitching staff, almost unheard of in today’s game.

Hudson addresses one of Minnesota’s major issues as he fills a hole at 2B. This likely means that Nick Punto will start the season at 3B (where he is a much better defender by UZR) and Brendan Harris will move to the bench. Are they the team to beat now?

Kennedy moves to Washington, taking over a second base spot that has been in limbo this offseason. It had been speculated that Ian Desmond could start at SS, moving Cristian Guzman to 2B. That scenario seems less likely now – will Kennedy have a starting role after a good 2009?

I don’t think I’m exaggerating, reader, when I say that the study of baseball and its attendant joys is the single most important field of research in our time. It is — as we speak — the most commonly offered and pursued doctoral degree program among our nation’s universities. Not only that, but, despite these tough economic times, those same universities are actively pursuing qualified professors to meet the large and growing demand from their undergraduate communities. The Fidrych Institute — i.e. the think tank most integral to effecting joy-related policy changes — currently receives substantial funding from Republicans, Democrats, the Green Party (who, if my numbers are correct, allocated something like 37% of their annual budget to the Institute), and Italian Premier Silvio Berlusconi, who, despite knowing almost nothing about baseball, made a generous contribution directly from the pockets of working Italians. Finally, you don’t need me to tell you that President Obama’s recent initiative to make baseballing/joy-related curriculum a greater part of elementary education — well, it’s a testament to the capacity of the subject to capture the imaginations of every man, woman, child, and whatever Mickey Rourke is.

One thing that has recently come to light from the surfeit of excellent research appearing all over the place — a potentially joy-inducing quality not covered by the Very Hallowed Taxonomy — is the effect that player movement might have on our interest in a player. Certainly, this is part of the reason we anticipate great joy from new Mariner (and All-Joy reliever) Brandon League, who has gone from being a boring old Blue Jay to one of Jack Zduriencik’s Chosen Few.

It’s probably fair to say that player movement alone isn’t enough for All-Joy consideration, but when it appears in tandem with another joy-inducing quality or two, it’s enough to inspire what Emily Dickinson called the thing with feathers (and, no, it’s not Mickey Rourke).

Here are two players who’ve changed teams this offseason, with their respective All-Joy credentials.

2B: Kelly Johnson, Arizona (2,5)
Johnson has always been on the fringes of All-Joy contention, anyway. For one, His 13% walk rate and 121 wRC+ in 2007 — from a second baseman, no less — are notable. The fact that he posted those numbers after missing all of 2006 due to Tommy John surgery makes his 2007 production even more significant. Also, there’s the fact that he made the shift to second base from left field — which, even if his second base numbers haven’t been great (-7.4 UZR/150 over the last three years), is still worthy of comment.

What has catapulted Johnson into the All-Joy spotlight entering the 2010 season? Two things, really. For one, there’s the issue of his batted ball numbers. After posting BABIPs of .330 and .344 in 2007 and 2008, that number fell to .249 in 2009. Secondly, there’s the move to Arizona’s Chase Field. According to the most recent edition of the Bill James Handbook, Turner Field has had park indices of 97 and 94 for left-handed batting average and home runs, respectively. Chase Field rates as a 103 and 115 in the same categories. The likelihood of Johnson hitting something like 2007’s 16 home runs is pretty good, I think.

UTIF: Adam Rosales, Oakland (2,4,5)
As a 26-year-old in the International League last year, Rosales posted an MLE either of .297/.347/.505 (Minor League Splits) or .309/.373/.573 (Baseball Prospectus), depending on who you believe. A certain type of reader might cite the paucity of plate appearances (125) and cite sample size issue. To which gesture I’d reply: “Stop it with your Tyranny of Reason!”

CHONE projects Rosales to have something like a league-average bat, and, provided that TotalZone isn’t a lying liarface from Liarville, it appears as though Rosales can handle shortstop. Now that he’s in Oakland, the chances of him securing some playing time have probably improved. Yeah, he’ll still be a back-up at short and second, but at least he’ll be the primary back-up. That was less the case in Cincy, where he had Paul Janish sticking around and the specter of Dusty Baker with which to contend.

For those keeping score at home, here’s the current All-Joy Roster:

C	Kurt Suzuki
1B	Brian Myrow
2B	Kelly Johnson
SS	Ben Zobrist
LF	Chris Heisey
CF	Ryan Sweeney
RF	Daniel Nava
UTIF	Adam Rosales

SP	Billy Buckner
SP	Jason Godin
RP	Brandon League
RP	Kevin Jepsen

General Manager: Josh Byrnes
Farm Director: Mike Berger
Scouting Director: Tom Allison

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-slot signees ($200,000 or more)

2009 1st Round: Bobby Borchering, 3B, Florida HS
1. A.J. Pollock, OF, Notre Dame
1S. Matt Davidson, 3B, California HS
1S. Chris Owings, SS, South Carolina HS
1S. Mike Belfiore, LHP, Boston College
2. Eric Smith, RHP, Rhode Island
2. Marc Krauss, OF, Ohio
3. Keon Broxton, 3B, Florida CC
7x – Matt Helm, 3B, Arizona HS
13x – Patrick Schuster, LHP, Florida HS

Typically with the draft reviews I give a very brief overview of the key prospects taken in the ’09 draft. The Top 10 list that follows (due up tomorrow for The Snakes) does not include 2009 draft picks due to the lack of available statistical information, as well as the natural volatility of the young players’ values. This organization is different, though, given A) The incredible lack of depth in the system prior to ’09, and B) The number of quality prospects that were nabbed in last year’s draft. As such, I am going to give more in-depth profiles for a number of the top picks below.

Bobby Borchering: He had an OK debut in rookie ball in ’09. The 19-year-old third baseman hit .241/.290/.425 in 87 at-bats. He quickly showed his raw power (.184 ISO) but also that he needs to tweak his approach at the plate after posting a walk rate of 5.4% and a strikeout rate of 31.0%. Defensively, Borchering has a good arm, but there is concern that he’ll lose mobility at the hot corner and eventually move to either first base or even an outfield corner. Some clubs also liked him as a catcher.

Matt Davidson: Another prep third baseman, Davidson debuted in short-season ball to accommodate Borchering’s stay in rookie ball. The powerful prospect still produced respectable numbers with a line of .241/.312/.319 in 270 at-bats. Davidson’s power clearly did not show up in his debut (.078 ISO) but he showed some patience at the plate (7.0 BB%) but also big strikeout numbers (27.8 K%). Defensively, he has the arm to stay at third (He was his high-school team’s closer, too) but Davidson will have to watch his conditioning (He’s already 6’3”, 210 lbs).

A.J. Pollock: Drafted as an outfielder, Pollock played all over the diamond as an amateur; if his bat doesn’t click in pro ball, he has the potential to be a super-utility player. With that said, he had no problems in his debut. He hit .271/.319/.376 in 255 low-A at-bats. He slugged just .106, but Pollock showed his athleticism and speed by swiping 10 bases in 14 attempts. To be a true top-of-the-order hitter, it would be nice to see him increase his walk rate from 5.8%.

Marc Krauss: This college outfielder debuted in low-A ball and hit .304/.377/.478 in 115 at-bats. He showed a good idea of the strike zone with a walk rate of 10.8% and his strikeout rate was OK at 18.3%. He showed some power with an ISO rate of .174. There is concern that his approach will not lead to big power numbers in pro ball (as witnessed by his 53.3% ground-ball rate and low line-drive rate) and he’s not likely to hit for a high average. He’s also limited defensively due to a lack of overall athleticism.

Chris Owings: Owings isn’t flashy in the field or at the plate, but he’s reliable. Defensively, he’s sure-handed and coverts what he gets too; he’s expected to remain at shortstop on a long-term basis. At the plate, he has limited power (.120 ISO) but Owings projects to be a solid top of the order hitter, but probably in the two hole due to his lack of speed and patience (2.7 BB%). He makes good contact and should hit .280-.300 in the Majors if he keeps developing. Overall, he hit .306/.324/.426 in 108 at-bats in his debut.

Mike Belfiore: It’s easy to like Belfiore. He’s left-handed, he can touch the low-to-mid-90s with his fastball and he gets a ton of ground balls (54% in his debut). He also has a four-pitch mix (fastball, slider, change-up, and curve) and he his ceiling keeps getting higher now that the former two-way player in college has focused on pitching. Overall in low-A ball in ’09, Belfiore posted a 2.48 FIP in 58.0 innings, while posting a strikeout rate of 8.53 K/9 and showing excellent control with a walk rate of 2.02 BB/9.

Keon Broxton: An athletic center-field prospect, Broxton struggled somewhat in his rookie-ball debut thanks to an ugly 34.2% strikeout rate. He also walked just 6.4% of the time and attempted seven steals (six successfully) in 72 games. Overall, he hit .246/.302/.474 in 272 at-bats. He showed more power than expected with an ISO rate of .228. He currently looks a little bit like fellow Diamondback Chris Young.

Ryan Wheeler (5th round): Wheeler had a solid debut in short-season ball and even earned a late-season promotion (eight games) to low-A. He hit .363/.461/.538 in 234 short-season at-bats. Wheeler’s scouting report out of college suggested that he was a one-dimensional slugger who went up swinging for the fences. He showed a little more depth than that in pro ball by posting a walk rate of 13.2% and he kept his strikeout rate to an excellent 12.0%. His ISO rate was .175 and he even stole seven base in 11 tries despite average-at-best speed.

2008 1st Round: Daniel Schlereth, LHP, Arizona
1S. Wade Miley, LHP, Southeastern Louisiana
2. Bryan Shaw, RHP, Long Beach State
3. Kevin Eichhorn, RHP, California HS

Schlereth reached the Majors quicker that a lot of people thought he would but the reliever was dealt to Detroit in the off-season in the Edwin Jackson trade. Miley is on the Top 10 list. Eichhorn has a chance to get onto the list in 2010 if he can continue to develop his control. The reliever spent ’09 in rookie ball and pitched just 16.0 innings with 25 strikeouts and nine walks.

Shaw spent time in both the starting rotation and the bullpen at high-A ball in ’09 and he posted respectable numbers. He allowed 96 hits in 107.1 innings, while showing OK control with a walk rate of 3.35 BB/9. He also struck out batters at a rate of 7.97 K/9. His FIP (3.70) was a full run lower than his ERA, in part because he relies to heavily on the ground ball (55%) and minor-league defenses are notoriously unreliable. He’s a better prospect than he currently appears to be.

Outfielder Collin Cowgill (5th round) was a steal and appears on the Top 10 list. Right-hander Trevor Harden (14th) is another player to keep your eye on.

2007 1st Round: Jarrod Parker, RHP, Indiana HS
1S. Wes Roemer, RHP, Cal State Fullerton
1S. Ed Easley, C, Mississippi State
2. Barry Enright, RHP, Pepperdine
3. Reynaldo Navarro, SS, Puerto Rico HS
5x – Tyrell Worthington, OF, North Carolina HS

First pick Parker has looked very good in pro ball and reached Double-A in ’09 before succumbing to Tommy John surgery. The organization hopes to have him back by the end of 2010 and he is on the Top 10 list along with Navarro.

Both Roemer and Enright are right-handed pitchers with good control but modest stuff. Roemer reached double-A in ’09 and allowed 132 hits in 134.2 innings, while also posting a walk rate of 2.87 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 6.55 K/9. He also produced a 44% ground-ball rate but his line-drive rate was a worrisome 18%. Enright also pitched in double-A and he gave up a lot of hits: 171 in 156.0 innings of work. His walk rate was good at 2.13 BB/9 but the strikeout rate was very low at just 5.94 K/9.

Easley’s bat has been a disappointment since turning pro. He hit just .228/.324/.304 in 378 high-A at-bats. Worthington has been a huge disappointment and has shown limited aptitude at the plate. In his third try at short-season ball, the outfielder hit just .204/.264/.274 with a 33.3% strikeout rate in 186 at-bats.

Josh Collmenter (15th round) is a pitcher to keep an eye on, while Bryan Augenstein (7th) could end up being a useful arm in the Majors.

2006 1st Round: Max Scherzer, RHP, Missouri
1S. Brooks Brown, RHP, Georgia (Traded to DET)
2. Brett Anderson, LHP, Oklahoma HS (Traded to OAK)
3. Dallas Buck, RHP, Oregon State (Traded to CIN)
3. Cyle Hankerd, OF, Southern California

Anderson was the cream of this crop, but he was traded to Oakland in the Dan Haren deal. Scherzer is a close second, but he was lost to Detroit in the Jackson deal. Brown (Detroit) and Buck (Cincinnati) were also traded. The organization, which doesn’t have a lot of money to burn, has made some very poor decisions by using cheap, talented minor leaguers as trading chips for more expensive veterans – some of whom did not stay around long.

Hankerd has never lived up to the hype that developed after his pro debut in ’06 but he could still see time in the Majors as a fourth or fifth outfielder. Daniel Stange (7th round) has some potential as a middle reliever. John Hester (13th) could be the club’s back-up catcher no later than 2011. Clay Zavada (30th) took a unique route to the Majors but he should be one of the southpaws in the MLB ‘pen this season.

Up Next: The Arizona Diamondbacks Top 10 Prospects

Over the past few weeks Beyond the Box Score has been conducting their first annual Sabermetric Writing Awards and here at FanGraphs, we’re honored that our work was so well received considering all the other great baseball research and writing this year.

FanGraphs took home the award for Best Online Recourse and took second in the Best Sabermetric Research or Writing Website, beaten out only by our friends at The Hardball Times

For the individual writer awards, our very own Dave Cameron took home awards for Best Commentary Article and Best Sabermetric Primer or Review Article/Series.

Dave Allen won the award Best Applied Research Article/Project for his multiple articles on Run Value by Pitch Type and Location, which can all be found at Baseball Analysts. And in the same category Matt Klaassen finished fourth with his article on the “little things” for 2008. The 2009 version of the article can be found here on FanGraphs.

Award winning aside, the whole nomination process definitely brought a lot of the year’s best baseball research and writing to the forefront and it’s worth checking out all the nominations in each category if you haven’t already.

Pretty much every year, there’s a team that the projection systems are optimistic about, relative to the general feel of baseball fans and analysts at large. This year, it looks like that team may be the Reds, who haven’t been seriously talked about as contenders by too many folks, but who look like they could be pretty good on paper.

Despite winning just 78 games last year, there’s quite a bit of talent on the roster. Scott Rolen and Brandon Phillips are established All-Star caliber players, while Joey Votto certainly looks like a guy who should be able to perform at that kind of level, given how well he played in 2009. Beyond just those three, the roster is littered with upside.

Jay Bruce, as we’ve talked about, was a league average hitter despite a fluky .222 BABIP last year. His skill metrics suggest he’s a premium power hitter, and just needs more balls to find holes in order for everyone to realize it. Drew Stubbs has been regarded as an elite defensive center fielder since his days in college, and his first appearance in the majors did nothing to diminish that reputation. Chris Heisey and Wladimir Balentien have destroyed minor league pitching in the past.

Not even counting the useful Chris Dickerson or somewhat-less-useful Jonny Gomes, that outfield has a chance to be really good. And we’ve already mentioned three potential all-stars on the infield. Even their weak spots, catcher and shortstop, are manned by not-horrible players in Ramon Hernandez, Ryan Hanigan, Orlando Cabrera, and Paul Janish.

On the position player side of things, the Reds stack up well with just about any team in the National League. And while the pitching staff lacks an ace, the quartet of Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, and Homer Bailey are far from disastrous. As a group, they’re roughly league average. Micah Owings is coming off a bad season, but of course, makes up for some of his problems on the mound by hitting well, and few teams have a reliable #5 starter anyway.

I guess I’m just surprised at the level of, well, surprise surrounding talk of the Reds as contenders. They have some good hitters, some good fielders, and some good enough pitchers. They were nearly a .500 team a year ago while wasting at-bats on the likes of Willy Taveras, and he’s thankfully been excised from the roster.

The Reds have the makings of a pretty good team in 2010. We shouldn’t be all that surprised to find them right in the thick of things come September.

The Tim Lincecum arbitration saga has been perhaps the most interesting story of the offseason. As soon as the possibility of Lincecum asking for $23,000,001, or one dollar more than CC Sabathia’s salary, surfaced on the internet, the speculation began and the questions spilled out. What would Lincecum ask for? Would he do the unthinkable, as mentioned above? Would the Giants call his bluff and give a low offer? What will his case mean for future pre-arbitration stars?

There is no doubt that he is a special case. With two Cy Young awards in his first three seasons, the only player to even compare to Lincecum in terms of pre-arbitration hardware is Ryan Howard, with a Rookie of the Year award and an MVP. Howard came away with $10M in his first arbitration hearing – obviously a far cry from $23M, but also a number that most players don’t see in their third arbitration hearings.

Tim Lincecum’s camp came in at what some thought to be a conservative number, at $13M, making the Giants submission of $8M seem meager in comparison. Given the drop in free agent salaries the last two years, the dollar value of a win is almost certainly lower than the $4.5M we saw in 2008, these numbers compare favorably to Howard’s first reward.

Despite all the questions, it seems almost universally accepted that Lincecum will be a bargain at either price. Relative to his value on the free agent market, that is certainly true. As a 6 WAR pitcher, as projected by CHONE, Lincecum would be worth roughly $21M in this market, which has been paying about $3.5M per marginal win. Both totals submitted to the arbitrators are far less than this amount.

Remember, though, that we expect Lincecum, as a first year arbitration player, to only receive 40% of his market value. As a $21M free market value player, Lincecum should receive about $8.4M from the arbitrators.

So what does this mean? First of all, don’t be surprised if the Giants win their case, as it would be right in line with what the arbitration market has done in the past. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised if Lincecum wins the case, either. Much like Howard, it’s possible that the arbitrators will award Lincecum a dollar amount above his true value due to his superstardom and his awards. If Lincecum wins his case, he wouldn’t be a bargain in comparison to other first-year arbitration cases. This isn’t to say that he’s not an asset – even at a market value contract, Lincecum is still an asset due to what he could fetch via trade and the fact that he can be worth six or more wins in any given season.

Regardless of what happens, it will be fun to watch.

Red Sox sign Joe Nelson

This marks the third time Nelson and the Red Sox have came together on a deal. Nelson actually pitched in three games for the Red Sox in 2004, before shuffling off to Kansas City, Florida and, most recently, Tampa Bay. He is best known as the master of the Vulcan change – think an extreme split-finger grip – and perhaps the funniest reliever in the game:

6. Have you ever played as yourself on a video game?
JN: Yes! Didn’t do well, either. I’m not good at video games, but I think it’s MLB 2002 was the first time — it was the one with Derek Jeter on the cover, and somebody called me and said, “Dude, you’re in this game.” I ran over to their place and I was like, “I wanna pitch with myself.” First ball I threw, I threw for a strike. Then, when you’re not very good — A, I’m not very good, but B, they didn’t make my character very good — I got tired after like three pitches and started getting hit around the ballpark. I’m like, “This is a really realistic game!” But yeah, I did it once. Other people have called me and yelled at me, said, “Your guy is not very good in this game!” I know. Sometimes I trick ’em, sometimes I don’t.

Nelson struggled in 40 innings with the Rays. 12% of the fly balls he allowed went over the fence and he frequently lost the strike zone, even in the minors. Nelson also lost some zip on his already somber fastball. Guys with history of arm injuries are always wild cards and Nelson is no different. On a minor league deal, though, it’s hard to find fault in the depth.

Rays claim Mike Ekstrom off waivers

Formerly of the Padres, and formerly a starter, Ekstrom spent most of 2009 in between Portland and San Diego’s bullpens. He pitched well in the minors and has some traits that could be useful in a middle relief role. He’s a short righty (5’11”) with a low-90s fastball and pretty decent slider that leads to groundballs – over 50% in the minors and just shy of 50% in a small sample size of 28 MLB innings. Even Chad Harville racked up 175 appearances with similar traits, so there’s hope yet.

Orioles retain Dennis Sarfate

He’s one of those guys that is older than you think (turns 29 in two months) and is already with his third organization since 2006. He throws hard though and generally that’s enough for someone to lay claim.

The arbitration-avoiding contract deals continued today with Justin Verlander and the Tigers coming to an agreement on a five year, $80 million deal. Verlander had reportedly been holding out for a sixth guaranteed year, but ultimately settled for a deal that paid him just north of the deal that Felix Hernandez received last month. Verlander and Felix were both in the same contract situation, with two arbitration years left, so how do these two deals compare?

Felix is three years younger in age than Verlander, which is noteworthy, but given that Verlander is not exactly old at soon-to-be 27 and given how pitchers age, I do not feel this is that big of a deal. Hernandez had been slightly better than Verlander from 2006 through 2008, but as good as Felix was in 2009 – and he was very good – Verlander blew him out of the water. Verlander led the league in innings pitched, with 240, and strikeouts, with 269. Frankly, they are both near equals, each clearly one of the five best pitchers in the league.

Verlander is getting valued at a higher rate though. Not just off the extra $2 million in total value, which is really insignificant when talking about such large deals, but also because Verlander was expected to get less in arbitration for this upcoming season. While Felix seemed certain to fall in around $10 million, Verlander filed at $9.5 million and the Tigers countered at just under $7 million. I clearly would side with Verlander, but assuming they split the difference and signed a deal for a bit over $8 million, it increases the gap between Verlander and Hernandez over the final four years of their contracts to about $1 million per year. Still a very small amount, but worth noting.

I think the overall deal is sound for Detroit, but I am worried about their payroll. This deal likely pushes them over $120 million for 2010. If the team can hang on for the year, they will get significant relief in 2011 with the huge salaries of Nate Robertson, Magglio Ordonez and Dontrelle Willis coming off the books. In the meantime, it seems likely that teams will continue to circle around waiting for a Miguel Cabrera salary dump trade should the Tigers fail to compete in the AL Central.