To begin this week’s episode of All-Joy Team — i.e. the show that everyone’s talking about — let’s take a look at a photo that I’ve almost definitely figured out how to insert just below these words.

What do we notice here? A couple things, I’d say. For one, that Tommy Hilfiger recognizes the dignity of all races and genders as long as the people belonging to said races and/or genders are incredibly attractive. For two — and probably more relevant to our present concern — is that the people in this picture are having a laugh-riot of a good time.

There are a couple reasons why that might be. My guess is that the guy in the middle there, with the big, weird white X on his chest, made a goofy noise or something. It’s probably not the sorta thing that you or I would’ve found funny, but these are models we’re talking about; their standards are a little different. On the other hand, that white woman on the right and the black gentleman on the lower left appear to be giving the dog a lot of attention, which leads me to believe that it (i.e. the dog) maybe barked at an opportune moment. Somone was all, “Hey, dog, do you like Tommy Hilfiger’s sweet fashions?” and then the dog was all like, “Bark! Bark!” which I definitely see could be construed as a “yes” to a bystander. Whatever. In the end, it doesn’t matter so much. What matter is this: togetherness = joy.

By contrast, look at the photo of this one guy:

See how dour he is? He’s alone. The world is all darkness for him. Probably, at any second, he’s just gonna up and shoot an Arab, right before spiraling into a vortex of existential angst. That, or he’ll just gorge himself on store-bought rotisserie chicken and watch YouTube videos until falling asleep in a pool of his own mess. Either way, things aren’t looking so hot for him. And why? On account of he’s alone, is why.

I think what this brief study proves beyond a shadow of a doubt is that, in most cases, joy only really exists when it can be shared. And if the reader is under the impression that things are somehow different when composing a fake 25-man roster whose soul purpose is to provide joy to the sabermetrically oriented — well, that reader has another thing coming.

No, sometimes the means by which we’re introduced to a player — or, at the least, to the joy-inducing qualities of that player — is when one of our sabermetric brothers takes the time to paint said player’s portrait.

Here are three (well, 2.5) cases of that (categories in parentheses):
Read the rest of this entry »

Gabe Gross, Ryan Garko, Reed Johnson, and Eric Byrnes have all signed contracts in the past week or so, each settling for under $1 million on a one year contract after shopping their skills around. Each of these guys have some value in part-time platoon roles, specializing in hitting pitchers who throw with a certain hand, but lack a necessary skill to play full time.

Because of the ever increasing size of bullpens, these types of hitting specialists have fallen out of favor. The meager salaries that these guys have had to accept highlights the lack of value that teams are now placing on platoons. With only 13 of 25 roster spots dedicated to position players on most teams, it is becoming far more difficult for teams to accommodate left-right platoons and still have the necessary reserves for their starters in case of injury.

Is that a wise use of roster allocation? I’m honestly not sure. I know there’s been a backlash against the ever increasing bullpen sizes among the sabermetric community, but I haven’t seen much in the way of evidence that specializing your bench is more efficient than specializing your bullpen.

Yes, the 12th pitcher on any given team is usually not very good, often producing at a near replacement level. Even if they pitch decently, the leverage of the innings they are given is usually so low that their overall value is quite low. So a straight comparison between value of platoon guy versus value of the 12th reliever will naturally lead one to conclude that teams would be better off with a larger bench and smaller bullpen.

I think there’s more to it than that, however. While mop-up relievers may not pitch well or handle many important innings, having them around allows managers to use their better relievers in different ways. As we’ve seen in the last decade, the larger bullpens allow managers to mix and match based on handedness in higher leverage situations, using pitchers who are far more effective against same handed hitters.

The goal of platooning a pair of hitters or using bullpen specialists is really the same – get as much value from exploiting left/right splits as possible. So why are managers going more towards pitchers when attempting to exploit those advantages?

I think it’s because they inherently understand the pinch-hitter penalty. As Matthew noted on ESPN a few weeks ago, guys perform at a level nearly 10 percent below their true talent level when being used as a pinch hitter. There is significant evidence that the act of sitting around for a few hours, grabbing a bat, and trying to get a hit is just very hard.

If you try to exploit platoon advantages from the offensive side, you get less than the full value of the hitters you are using when pinch-hitting. Thus, any hitter with a large platoon split can be devalued in high leverage situations in a way that is tough to counter. Even if you pinch hit for the left-handed half of your platoon when the opposing manager brings in a LOOGY, you’re still at a disadvantage, because your right-handed bat now has to overcome the penalty of inactivity.

While it may be annoying to watch the parade of relievers bog down game from the 7th inning on, I think there’s a pretty decent chance that managers are making the more efficient decision. It’s an area that needs more study, certainly, but I think we should acknowledge that there is value to platooning your relievers that is not found in platooning your hitters.

General Manager: Mike Rizzo
Farm Director: Doug Harris
Scouting Director: Kris Kline

FanGraphs’ Top 10 Prospects:
(2009 Draft Picks/International Signees Not Included*)

The depth is still lacking in the Nationals system, but the good news is that the club is starting to collect some prospects with higher ceilings, led (of course) by Stephen Strasburg. Fellow ’09 draft pick Drew Storen is another pitcher to keep an eye on, as he could be in Washington by mid-season.

1. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, College*
DOB: July 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2009 1st round – San Diego State University
MLB ETA: Mid-2010 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 92-98 mph fastball, plus curveball, change-up

Yes, I am stepping away from my self-imposed restriction of not ranking 2009 draft picks. I’m sure you can understand why with Strasburg, who is by far the best prospect in the entire system, if not all of baseball. Statistically-speaking, there is little to go on with the big right-hander. He made his pro debut in the Arizona Fall League and allowed 15 hits in 19.0 innings, while punching out 23 and walking seven. He also produced a crazy number of ground-ball outs. Of the five starts that he made, he allowed more than one run just once (eight in 2.2 innings). There is some thought that Strasburg could step right into the Nationals rotation at the beginning of 2010, but he’s likely due for some minor-league seasoning in double-A.

2. Derek Norris, C, Low-A
DOB: February 1989 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 4th round – Kansas HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Norris had a breakout season and is now one of the best catching prospects in all of baseball. Playing in low-A ball, the right-handed catcher hit .286/.413/.513 in 437 at-bats. His triple-slash line was aided by a .342 BABIP, which is rather high for a catcher – but Norris has better legs than most at his position (as seen by his 29 stolen bases attempts in two seasons). He showed excellent power with an ISO rate of .227, which helps justify (to a degree) the 26.5% strikeout rate. Norris showed exceptional patience at the plate with a walk rate of 16.7%. Defensively, he threw out 36% of base-stealers, but he allowed 28 passed balls.

3. Ian Desmond, SS, Majors
DOB: September 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2004 3rd round – Florida HS
MLB ETA: Now 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 2

It’s taken Desmond a few years to navigate the minor-league waters but he appears ready to assume the full-time shortstop gig for the Nationals. The club is confident in the young infielder to the point where it is planning to move veteran Cristian Guzman to second base. Desmond began the year in double-A and hit .306/.372/.494 in 170 at-bats. He showed good power with an ISO rate of .188 but his strikeout rate was a tad high at 23.5%. That rate came down to 17.4% in 178 triple-A at-bats, but his power diminished to an ISO rate of .107. Overall, Desmond stole 21 bases in 26 attempts. Promoted to the Majors, he hit .280/.318/.561 in 82 at-bats. The 24-year-old shortstop should produce at a league-averag clip in 2010, at the very least.

4. Danny Espinosa, SS, High-A
DOB: April 1987 Bats: S Throws: R
Signed: 2008 3rd round – Long Beach State University
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

If Desmond’s development suddenly goes south, the organization also has Espinosa waiting in the wings. He looks quite different than the player of the same name at Long Beach State University, who never topped more than seven homers (in 210 at-bats) and was considered a line-drive hitter. Taking to the wood, though, has been good for Espinosa. His aggressive approach has remain consistent, though, and he has produced a high strikeout rate in pro ball (27.2%) and he did not hit for much average in ’09 with a triple-slash line of .264/.375/.460 in 474 high-A at-bats. With 29 steals in 40 tries, Espinosa could develop into a 20-20 threat if his power output (.196 ISO, 18 homers) is for real. He’s beginning to look a little bit like Toronto’s Aaron Hill, but with more speed. Defensively, Espinosa has a strong arm and solid range at shortstop.

5. Chris Marrero, 1B, Double-A
DOB: July 1988 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2006 1st round – Florida HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

It’s been a long, slow climb through the system for this former No. 1 draft pick. Marrero was stuck in high-A ball for three seasons but he finally received a taste of double-A (23 games) in ’09. At the lower level, he hit .287/.360/.464 in 414 at-bats. He has yet to show consistent power and his ISO rate was .176 before it dropped to .120 with his promotion. His strikeout rate (23.4%) and walk rate (9.0%) both remained almost identical despite the move. Marrero is a below-average fielder at first base so he needs to tap into his raw power more consistently if he’s going to be an everyday player at the MLB level. Just 21, he’ll return to double-A for the 2010 season.

6. Michael Burgess, OF, High-A
DOB: October 1988 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2007 supplemental 1st round – Florida HS
MLB ETA: Mid-2012 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

A move from low-A in ’08 to high-A in ’09 saw Burgess’ OPS drop from .804 to .735. He also lost some pop in his bat as his ISO rate slipped from .219 to .175. Although his walk rates (9.9%) were almost identical and strikeout rate of 28.1% was actually an improvement over ’08’s 33.9%, Burgess’ numbers took a dive in part due to a .288 BABIP (down from .331 in ’08). The stocky outfielder hit .235/.325/.410 in 480 at-bats in ’09, and he’s going to continue to struggle to hit for a high average until he gets his strikeout rate under control. He attempted 20 steals and was caught eight times. Defensively, he has a very strong arm and is a good fielding right-fielder.

7. Bradley Meyers, RHP, Double-A
DOB: September 1985 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 5th round – Loyola Marymount University
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3
Repertoire: 89-93 mph fastball, slider, change-up

A little-known pitcher entering ’09, Meyers had a solid year and looks poised to help the Nationals club in 2010, if needed. The right-hander has good size for a pitcher and an average repertoire that plays up due to his good control (2.10 BB/9 in ’09). Meyers began the year in high-A and allowed 71 hits with a 2.72 FIP in 88.1 innings of work. He allowed just one home run thanks to a 51% ground-ball rate. Moved up to double-A, he posted a 2.76 FIP and gave up 40 hits in 48.0 innings. His strikeout rate also jumped from 6.62 to 8.06 K/9. Meyers allowed just two homers at the senior level, although his ground-ball rate dipped to 40%. Pitching depth remains a weakness in the organization, so Meyers could definitely see time in the Majors in 2010 if he continues to pitch well.

8. Aaron Thompson, LHP, Double-A
DOB: February 1987 Bats: L Throws: L
Signed: 2005 1st round – Texas HS (Florida)
MLB ETA: Mid-2011 40-Man Roster: Yes Options: 3
Repertoire: 88-91 fastball, plus change-up, curveball, slider

Thompson, like Meyers, does not have a huge ceiling but they both project as useful big-league arms. This former supplemental first round pick was obtained from Florida last season for first baseman Nick Johnson and he posted solid numbers after changing addresses. Thompson pitched 114.0 innings for the Marlins’ double-A squad and he allowed 121 hits, while posting a walk rate of 3.39 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 5.92 K/9. After the trade, the southpaw saw his rates improve to 3.03 BB/9 and 7.44 K/9. He also allowed 32 hits in 32.2 innings. Thompson clearly needs to find a way to cut down on the hits allowed and he’s been incredibly unlucky throughout his career when it comes to his LOB% rate, which was 65% in ’09.

9. Destin Hood, OF, Short-Season
DOB: April 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2008 2nd round – Alabama HS
MLB ETA: Late-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

A prep football star, the organization swayed Hood away from an Auburn University football scholarship with an above-slot contract in 2008. The outfielder remains raw but he continues to show flashes of developing into a solid baseball player. He hit well in a brief stint in rookie ball (.330/.388/.614 in 88 at-bats) before moving up to short-season ball, where his numbers dipped a bit. At the upper level, Hood hit .246/.302/.333 in 138 despite a .352 BABIP. His strikeout rate was a disturbingly-high 32.6% and he did not produce the power numbers (.087 ISO) to help justify such a large number. Hood does not have much speed, so he’s not a stolen-base threat and he’s very raw defensive. He should move up to low-A ball for the 2010 season.

10. Eury Perez, OF, Rookie
DOB: May 1990 Bats: R Throws: R
Signed: 2007 non-drafted international free agent (Dominican Republic)
MLB ETA: Late-2013 40-Man Roster: No Options: 3

Perez certainly does not have the pedigree of some of the other bigger-named (and bigger $$$) Latin signings in the past few years. With that said, he burst onto the baseball landscape with authority in ’09 by hitting .381/.443/.503 in 181 at-bats. The high slugging percentage is likely a figment of the small-sample size and level of competition, as Perez has a small frame and is built more for speed (16 steals in 24 tries) and his ISO rate was just .122. The outfielder showed a pretty good approach at the plate for his age, with a walk rate of 7.3% and a strikeout rate of just 11.0%. His high batting average, though, was the result of a crazy .418 BABIP. Because he has a pretty good idea at the plate, and he buys into the strengths of his game (59% ground-ball rate), Perez – although very raw – has the chance to develop into a solid top-of-the-order hitter.

Up Next: The AL/NL East Recap

As the Reds’ rebuilding efforts move closer and closer to contention in 2010, one remaining roster hole was at SS, where incumbent Paul Janish failed to impress in 2009. The Reds attempted to boost the position on Monday, as the team agreed to a one-year contract with Orlando Cabrera that will pay the 35-year-old 3.02 million dollars.

Cabrera is a known quantity when it comes to his batting. Respectively, over the last two years, Cabrera’s put up 88 and 89 wRC+ totals against a career average of 90. Bill James, CHONE, Marcel, and the Fans all have him between 87 and 89. Over 600 plate appearances, that’s about 8 or 9 runs below average.

What will define Cabrera’s productivity in 2010 will be his defense. After consistently posting great fielding numbers in the UZR era, including a +30 overall total and +8 and +14 totals in 2007 and 2008, O-Cab hit a wall in 2009. In split time between Oakland and Minnesota, Cabrera put up an atrocious -15.3 UZR in 2010. It’s hard to imagine a player collapsing that quickly, especially one as durable as Cabrera (700+ PAs in three straight seasons). Given the measurement error possible in one season of UZR, it’s probable that Cabrera isn’t a -15 fielder now. However, given his age, it is also quite possible if not likely that Cabrera is now a below-average fielder.

Depending on if you think Cabrera is as bad as he is last year (0.5 WAR), just below average, or about -5 UZR (1.5 WAR), or still above average, or about +5 UZR (2.5 WAR), Cabrera is either a steal at $3M or a terrible signing. To the Reds, what’s more important than this signing in a vacuum is the kind of upgrade he represents over Janish.

Paul Janish may be most famous for his 90 MPH fastball, which he flashed in two Reds games last year en route to a 49.50 ERA. Janish put up a stellar +12 UZR last season in a mere 82 games (63 starts), a number backed up by excellent Fan’s Scouting Report numbers. It’s hard to believe that he’s the +24 UZR SS that his 2009 UZR numbers suggest, but +5, as CHONE projects, is very reasonable and better is possible if not probable.

Janish just can’t hit. He hasn’t hit in the minors since A-ball and hasn’t put up a .700+ OPS in AA or AAA, and in 300 major league PAs, he posted a meager 60 wRC+. His BABIP was atrocious last year, at .240, but as a fly ball hitter with minimial power (only above .100 minor league ISO once) and with many infield flies (16.0% IFFB, 7% of total PA). Even with BABIP improvement, CHONE projects a slight increase, to a 77 wRC+, but that’s still brutal. As a +5 SS, that sort of hitting perfomance makes Janish worth about 1.3 wins. With room for breakout and better fielding numbers, Janish could approach 2 WAR, much like Cabrera’s upside.

From a resource standpoint, it doesn’t appear that this is the best use of the Reds’ money. On the surface, Cabrera doesn’t appear to be a major upgrade over Janish. However, we can’t evaluate this deal in a vacuum. The Reds don’t have any other major holes in their roster, perhaps apart from depth. Given the lack of game-changing talent left on the free agent market, both at the SS position and overall, Cabrera should be a good addition. Cabrera won’t be a significant overpay unless his fielding collapse is real, and the depth added by this move could be key if the Reds find themselves in contention this year.

Consider this about Gabe Gross’ $750K contract: Mark Kotsay will be making double that next year while providing fewer than half the value.

I’ve enjoyed watching and writing about Gross to almost hyperbolic levels. He’s a fantastic athlete, one who actually played quarterback for the University of Auburn, and has more range than a soprano. His arm isn’t half bad either. Offensively, Gross will strikeout a bit while walking and hitting the occasional home run. He rarely goes outside of the strike zone to chase a bad pitch. He’s largely ineffective against southpaws, making him a platoon player and defensive replacement on any consciously managed team.

There seems to be two chief concerns about Gross on the A’s:

1) The Athletics already have three defensive wizards in their outfield

2) The Athletics also have Travis Buck

Let’s address the second point first. Buck had a fine entrance to the Majors back in 2007 producing 2.3 WAR. Since then injuries have absolutely sunk any hopes of dependability the A’s can put on the 26-year-old. In fact, he has fewer plate appearances since 2007 for the A’s as Gross did last year. The hope for Buck is basically to be Gross: an average hitting corner outfielder with above average defensive abilities. Since the A’s appear able to make a run at the division this year, Gross seems to provide more reliability, even if Buck’s upside is higher.

The first point is one people constantly harp on with the Mariners, too. Runs are runs. If there’s any ballpark in America that can handle three range-blessed outfielders at once, it’s the canyon Oakland plays inside of. If two of the fielders overlap constantly, have one take a few steps away. Gross doesn’t have to live up to his CHONE projections to be worth the contract.

Matt Klaasen ran through the math in more vivid color than I will here, but there’s little room for failure when evaluating this deal in WAR to dollar terms.

As you’ve almost certainly read by now, former Arizona outfielder Eric Byrnes signed with the Mariners this past Friday after having been previously released by the Diamondbacks. There’s plenty to read about Byrnes’ current abilities (for example here, here, here, and my favorite here). Briefly: he’s an oft-injured 34-year old outfielder with a bad bat and a good glove. He’s probably 0-0.5 WAR, but at the league minimum, it’s a virtually risk-free signing.

What is more interesting is that the Diamondbacks are still on the hook for almost $11 million dollars of the last year of the three-year, $30 million dollar contract to which they signed Byrnes in 2007. During Byrnes’ disastrous, injury-plagued 2008 and 2009 seasons, many a snide comment about “grit” and “veteran leadership” was made about Arizona’s decision to lock up a corner outfielder in his early 30s during a “career year,” especially since they then traded Carlos Quentin, who immediately started mashing for the White Sox.

It is easy (and fun!) to mock a decision after it has obviously turned out badly. The more interesting question is how the contract looked when it was signed — hence my occasional series of “Contract Retrospectives.” Step into the time machine…

We all remember where we were when we heard heard the big news: Rosie O’Donnell was forced off of The View. But that shouldn’t overshadow other happenings from 2007: The Phoenix spacecraft left for Mar’s North Pole. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows was released, inspiring millions of children all over the world to read and have terrible literary taste. Fergie’s “Big Girls Don’t Cry” made us all wonder if we would be better off dead. And on August 7, Barry Bonds, ever the narcissist, hit home run number 756, deliberately overshadowing Byrnes’ contract signing on the same day.

What were the Diamondbacks paying for? The market was very different “back in the day.” During the 2007-08 offseason (Byrnes contract was for 2008-2010), the estimated market price for a win above replacement was about $4.4 million. Figure in 10% annual salary inflation and a half-a-win a season expected decline, and one gets this chart. Looking across the top row of the chart for years and and then down for closest figure to Byrnes’ contract, you will see that 3 years, $28.7 implies a 2.5 WAR player for 2008. Add in the $400,000 per year league minimum (“replacement salary”), and you have a nearly perfect match with Byrnes’ contract.

Was 2.5 WAR a reasonable expectation? From the standpoint of 2007 (it’s difficult to split up the season for “retrojections”), from 2004-2007 Byrnes had put up WARs of 3.4, 0.6, 3.3, and 4.0. The four year average is about 2.8, and the three year average is about 2.4. So Arizona wasn’t (necessarily) sucked in by Byrnes’ 2007 performance. Let’s break things down a bit more precisely.

In past installments, I’ve done my own, deliberately crude “retrojection.” This time I’ve utilized archived projections from CHONE, ZiPS, and everyone’s favorite monkey, Marcel. Converting Byrnes’ projected 2008 lines to the appropriate linear weights, over a full season (700 PA), CHONE projected +16 runs, ZiPS projected +14 runs, and Marcel (ever the pessimist) projected +5 runs. The simple average is about +12 runs. Arizona’s ballpark is very hitter-friendly, so the adjusted value of those projections is about +7/700 PA.

Fielding is more complicated, since Byrnes played multiple positions. Fortunately, the adjustments for CF(2.5) and RF/LF (-7.5) is meant to reflect the relative difficulty of the positions. Thus, I simply added Byrnes’ UZR fielding runs to his positional adjustment for each season to get a “position neutral” fielding rating. After weighting, regressing, and adjusting for age, the projected 2008 position-neutral defensive value for Byrnes is +3 runs (i.e., average in CF, +10 on the corners).

Putting it altogether: +7 offense +3 fielding + 20 NL replacement level = 3 WAR times 85% playing time = 2.6 WAR. Pretty much right on the money.The Quentin issue aside (and it isn’t has if he had torn it up prior to the trade), perhaps one can quibble over details such as the no-trade clause. Still, while the contract looks bad now, it was right in line with the market at the time it was signed.

General Manager: Mike Rizzo
Farm Director: Doug Harris
Scouting Director: Kris Kline

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-slot signees ($200,000 or more)

2009 1st Round: Stephen Strasburg, RHP, San Diego
1. Drew Storen, RHP, Stanford
2. Jeff Kobernus, 2B, California
3. Trevor Holder, RHP, Georgia
12x – Nathan Karns, RHP, Texas Tech

Strasburg is obviously the Nationals’ No. 1 prospect and you’ll read more about him tomorrow. Storen could beat Strasburg to Washington, though, as he’s already produced some very good numbers in the minors. The right-handed future closer pitched a total of 37.0 innings in pro ball in ’09 and allowed just 21 hits with 49 strikeouts. He did, though, walk six batters in 12.1 innings at double-A as his control got progressively worse as he faced better hitters. In other words, a little more minor-league seasoning will probably help.

Kobernus appeared in just 10 games after signing and hit .220/.273/.244. The second baseman should move up to low-A for 2010. Perhaps impressed with his ability to touch to mid-90s, the organization nabbed Holder about five to seven rounds higher than he was projected to go. In his debut, he played at three levels and reached high-A despite OK, but not great, numbers. The right-hander made six starts in high-A and allowed 33 hits in 23.1 innings, while posting a walk rate of 3.47 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 6.94 K/9. Karns signed too late to play in ’09; he’s similar to Holder in the fact that he can hit the mid-90s but he doesn’t dominate due to poor command and a lack of development in his secondary pitches.

2008 1st Round: Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri (Did Not Sign)
2. Destin Hood, OF, Alabama HS
3. Danny Espinosa, SS, Long Beach State
x- Graham Hicks, LHP, Florida HS
x- Adrian Nieto, C, Florida HS
x- J.P. Ramirez, OF, Texas HS

The club definitely would have liked to get Crow signed, but he ended up going back in the draft and was taken (and inked) by Kansas City in the first round of the 2009 draft. Both Hood and Espinosa appear on the club’s Top 10 list.

Hicks spent time in extended spring training in ’09 and then pitched the majority of the season in low-A ball where he struggled with a 5.38 FIP. He allowed 53 hits in 36.2 innings of work. Nieto also began the year in extended spring training before spending a second season in rookie ball where his bat failed to develop. The catcher hit just .228/.337/.287 in 136 at-bats. He clearly needs to drive the ball more after posting an ISO of .059 despite his solid frame (6’0”, 200 lbs).

Ramirez just missed to the Top 10 list after a solid short-season ball season. The outfielder hit .264/.306/.407 in 295 at-bats. He has speed, but Ramirez is still learning the art of base running; he was caught nine times in 15 attempts. His walk rate was just 4.5% so he’s going to need to show more patience at the plate. Ramirez also needs to improve against southpaws after hitting just .203/.259/.266.

2007 1st Round: Ross Detwiler, RHP, Missouri State
1S. Josh Smoker, LHP, Georgia HS
1S. Michael Burgess, OF, Florida HS
2. Jordan Zimmermann, RHP, Wisconsin-Stevens
2. Jake Smolinski, 3B, Illinois HS
3. Steven Souza, 3B, Washington HS
x- Jack McGeary, LHP, Massachusetts HS

With six picks in the first three rounds (and one large over-slot deal), the club was set to really infuse some talent into the system. Unfortunately, only Zimmermann has met or exceeded expectations and he’s currently on the shelf after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Detwiler has appeared in 16 MLB games over the past three seasons, but he has yet to take a stranglehold on a rotation spot. Burgess still appears on the club’s Top 10 list, but he needs a strong 2010 season. Smoker has battled injury problems and he has yet to get out of short-season ball for an significant period of time (five starts in low-A before being demoted in ’09).

Smolinski had some value, as he was traded to Florida in the Scott Olsen deal, which really didn’t work out for the Nats. Souza spent ’09 in low-A but he strikes out too much (26.0%) for someone with modest power (.081 ISO). McGeary originally signed a contract that allowed him to play pro ball and also attended college but he committed to the sport full-time in ’09. Unfortunately, he had a pretty poor season and posted a 5.09 FIP in low-A.

Derek Norris (4th round) and Bradley Meyers (5th) were both excellent acquisitions.

2006 1st Round: Chris Marrero, OF/1B, Florida HS
1. Colton Willems, RHP, Florida HS
2. Sean Black, RHP, New Jersey HS (Did not sign)
2. Stephen Englund, OF, Washington HS
3. Stephen King, SS, Florida HS

Marrero has not posted above-average numbers in the minors despite his favorable draft status. Despite that, he is still amongst the Nationals’ Top 10 prospects. Willems’ ’09 season was ruined by injuries. Englund hit so poorly that he’s now giving pitching a try. King may want to try the same thing after hitting just .222/.304/.340 with a 31.1% strikeout rate in 315 high-A at-bats.

Up Next: The Washington Nationals Top 10 Prospects

It’s February, finally, so spring training is just around the corner. Teams are putting the finishing touches on their rosters, filling out benches and bullpens, giving jobs to role players and evaluating the walking wounded. And now that the off-season is mostly finished, you should expect to be inundated with the buzzword of the month – projections.

CHONE. ZiPS. MARCEL. PECOTA. CAIRO. And yes, FANS. (Side note: are we capitalizing it, even though it’s not an acronym? I think we should. It’s not like anyone has any idea what CHONE stands for.) There will be no shortage of projection systems tossing out expected performances over the next month or two.

It won’t stop with just individual players, either. The guys over at Replacement Level Yankee Weblog have already run the CAIRO projections through the Diamond Mind simulator 100 times and posted the aggregate results as projected standings. Spoiler alert – the Yankees are good, the Blue Jays are not.

However, we need to make a distinction: projections are not predictions. Projections are information about what we think we currently know, while predictions are speculation about things that we probably cannot know.

This may sound like semantics, but there is an important difference here, and it’s often lost in the way projections are discussed. Too often, projections are treated as predictions of the future. You’ll see people say things like “CAIRO thinks the Blue Jays are going to only win 67 games this year,” for instance.

But that’s not really true. CAIRO thinks that the Blue Jays are on course to win 67 games, and if they don’t do something about it between now and the end of the season, that is their likely destination. But, like a map, the entire point of a projection is to inform the the user so that he can then alter the course if he so desires.

You would never look at a map and say “I’m traveling east on I-40. This map expects me to drive into the Atlantic Ocean.” The map just informs you that the course you are on will eventually lead to the ocean, and if you decide not to exit, wetness awaits. (Obviously, there’s some hyperbole here, as I realize that the freeway doesn’t end with a pier). The map has no expectation of what will happen. It’s just informing you of the course you are on.

Just like you control where you car goes, so do front offices control where their team goes, to a point. It is quite possible that Alex Anthopolous will look at his team’s internal projections and say, “Hey, we kinda suck; someone go find me a third baseman.” And then, after his assistants find him a third baseman, the team will be better. And people will say that the projection was wrong.

But it wasn’t wrong, because it wasn’t predicting anything. It was giving an evaluation of what was true at the time, to the best of its abilities. Its abilities may be flawed (and how you evaluate projection systems is another post for another day), but the intent was never to suggest what will happen, but rather, what could happen if nothing changes, knowing full well that things will change.

So, if you see a projection that you don’t particularly like, don’t get too bent out of shape about it. It’s just information about a path that a team may currently be on in February. By July, there’s a really good chance that the team will be on a different path, and a new projection accounting for that change in course will be available. Most of all, don’t assume that the people behind the projections hate your team. In fact, if your team gets a terrible projection, you may want to thank the system’s creator – that may just be the information that prods the front office to go out and improve the team, thus proving that the stupid system was wrong all along.

(A note: This week begins what I hope to become a weekly feature: college baseball on Mondays. During the season, we’ll recap how the top draft prospects fared during the weekend. But with Opening Day still three weeks away, we begin today with the top prospect in Division I.)

“He’s not just tall and has a good arm, you know,” Louisiana State head coach Paul Mainieri told me on the phone last week. Sometimes, the rest of what makes up 21-year-old Anthony Ranaudo tends to get lost in the fray. His success, as a pitcher-not-thrower, pitching on Friday nights for a national champion, can somehow be overshadowed by his “good arm.” A beast at 6-foot-7, 230 pounds, with a fastball that has touched 97 mph in the past, Ranaudo is what scouts dream of when they imagine a right-handed pitcher.

He will be drafted in the top five this June, Boras’ demands permitting, as a result of that frame, that arm, and yes, some of those pitching skills harnessed in Baton Rouge. His decision to attend college, one he made before the 2007 draft, was a calculated risk when it appeared he would not be drafted in the first round out of a New Jersey high school. Blame Rick Porcello’s sizable shadow, or blame a senior season that just couldn’t match the dominance of the previous year. But the calculated risk looked to be an epic mistake in 2008, when Ranaudo lost most of his season to elbow tendinitis. Fast forward 12 months, and his prospect status is higher than ever.

And while it’s hard to poke holes in a 12-3, 3.04 ERA season (not to mention the 6.73 H/9 or 11.51 K/9), it does seem as things could get better for Ranaudo this year. Another year removed from his elbow problems, we should see more consistency in velocity this season, as last year his fastball would dip into the 89-91 range at times. In the fall and early spring workouts, the healthy right-hander is back to his old mid-90s self. And to face left-handed hitters, who had some success against him last year, Ranaudo will be implementing his third pitch.

“We’re going to use the change-up a little more this year,” Mainieri said. “It was pretty good last year, we just didn’t throw it much. This fall it looked real good.”

Scouts are anxious to see it, as they didn’t get to see him last summer. Mainieri ruled that after never pitching more than 60 innings in a season before, the 124.1 innings logged during the Tigers’ championship run was enough for 2009. They shut him down for the summer, and limited his fall ball workout to five outings with a maximum of three innings. Before the season, they plan on three more intrasquad starts. And on February 19, against Centenary, Ranaudo will begin his final season in purple and gold. It will mark the first time he’s thrown to a non-teammate since winning the national championship on June 24.

The 2010 draft looks thinner on the college side than it has in a few years, but it’s not without a horse. More on Ranaudo every Monday in this space.

In my talk with Mainieri, three other players came up worth noting, all of whom I’ll run through quickly:

— While Bryce Harper (who made his junior college debut over the weekend) is the draft’s top catcher, Micah Gibbs is the most polished. The junior has shown a bit of every skill at LSU, including gap power (32 doubles in 412 at-bats), patience (69 walks) and plus defense. Mainieri quoted Gibbs’ ability to put all of them together, day in and day out, as his final hurdle before June.

— In terms of SportsCenter appearances, no player in college baseball has been as visible in two seasons as Leon Landry. In both 2008 and 2009, Landry made a Top Ten Play, showcasing his “70” defensive range. He also came out of the gate last season as the nation’s hottest hitter, but went cold at the onset of conference season and was benched by the postseason. “He just got a little homer happy and was pulling off the ball,” Mainieri said. The coach also pointed out that LSU faced “an inordinate amount of left-handers,” who Landry is still struggling against. Still, with an insane power-speed toolset, Landry won’t slip past the third round.

— I first became aware of Blake Dean in August, 2007, when I ranked him as a top freshman prospect in the Cape Cod League, “A nice left-handed swing with good bat control, and a good outfielder,” I wrote. Well, I was wrong with the latter point, as Dean quickly became the Tigers’ Designated Hitter. But he did slug, and has been one of the nation’s top hitters for two seasons, hitting .340/.432/.628 in his sophomore and junior seasons. The coaches finally have a position for Dean, for his final season in Baton Rouge: first base. “This was always his natural position, he just never knew it,” Mainieri said. Expect him to go higher than the 10th round (where he was drafted last June) this time around.

Three outfielders of youth and future notoriety today: Kyle Blanks, Matthew Joyce, and Michael Saunders.

Some people are going to take this the wrong way, but I’d definitely nominate Blanks and Saunders for the Reggie Cleveland All-Star team.