The Reds have positioned themselves for a run in 2010. After win totals of 72, 74, and 78 over the past three seasons, we might finally see them break the .500 barrier for the first time since 2000. Even more, we could even see them make a run at the NL Central if a few things break their way. GM Walt Jocketty’s moves in late 2009 and this past off-season should certainly give Reds fans reason for hope.

The team features a nice blend of young and veteran players. Three of the team’s projected starters will be 26 or younger, while another two will be under 30. Leading the young crop is first baseman Joey Votto, who produced the fourth highest wOBA in the majors last season. He could prove even more valuable in 2010, at the same rate stats, if he plays more than the 131 games he did in 2009. That alone would be a huge boost to a Reds’ offense that scored just 4.15 runs per game last season.

Drew Stubbs presents the Reds with a chance to improve in center field, though almost anyone would be an improvement over Willy Taveras’s .259 wOBA. He got the call last August and hit well in his 196 plate appearances, posting a .335 wOBA while tracking down most everything hit towards center field. The eighth overall pick in the 2006 draft, Stubbs hit .269/.364/.401 through parts of three minor league seasons. Even if Stubbs can maintain his short-sample 2009 numbers he’ll be a huge positive for the Reds.

The final under-26 player is one who the Reds hope can pair with Votto and create and indomitable 3-4 combination. Jay Bruce has shown all the promise in the world. The 12th overall pick in 2005, Bruce posted monster minor league numbers everywhere he played. This earned him a late-May call-up in his age-21 season and he performed reasonably well, posting a .328 wOBA. His 2009 started off poorly, as he hit just .207/.283/.441. Dusty Baker benched him for a few games in early July, and in his first game back he broke his wrist on a diving play in the outfield. That caused him to miss two months. Upon his return in mid-September he hit well, but that was just 54 plate appearances against expanded rosters. Bruce still has a lot to prove in 2010, though the talent is certainly there.

To supplement this young core, the Reds have a few veteran players. At last year’s trade deadline they acquired Scott Rolen and then re-worked his deal over the off-season. He started the season with the Bue Jays and hit very well, posting a .367 wOBA over 373 PA before the trade. He stumbled once he moved to Cincinnati, though he did miss time after suffering a concussion in early August. A return to his early 2009 form would be a huge boost to the Reds not only on offense, but also on defense. Rolen is considered an elite defender at third and UZR measures him that way. Over his career he has posted a 15.5 UZR/150.

Two veterans finish off the Reds’ infield, Brandon Phillips and Orlando Cabrera. Phillips, entering his fifth season with the Reds, recovered a bit after posting a sub-par 2008. He lit up the league in 2007, hitting .288/.331/.485 with 30 home runs, but hasn’t reached that level since. In 2009 he posted a .337 wOBA, which would be fine production for a second baseman with his defensive skills. His double play partner, Cabrera, has seen declining offensive numbers over the past three seasons. Worse yet, his UZR dipped horribly, from 14.0 in 2008 to -15.3 in 2009. A recovery on that front could help offset his declining offensive value, though.

While the offense looks like it should improve on its 2009 season, the pitching staff is a bit more in doubt. Its best 2009 performer, Bronson Arroyo, has had a strange run as a Red. Acquired in 2006 for Wily Mo Pena, Arroyo immediately impressed, pitching 240.2 innings to a 3.29 ERA, though his FIP was 4.15. His ERA rose over the next two seasons, and in the first half of 2009 it looked like that would trend for a third straight year. In the second half, though, he shined, allowing just 27 runs over 108.1 innings, good for a 2.24 ERA. Can he repeat in 2010? His 4.78 FIP and 4.56 xFIP suggest otherwise.

Perhaps the strangest case in the Reds’ rotation is Aaron Harang. He established himself as an ace from 2005 through 2007, pitching 667.2 innings and allowing just 284 runs, a 3.77 ERA and 3.64 FIP. In 2008, however, he disappointed with a 4.78 ERA in just 184.1 innings. We all know the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy, but it’s tough to ignore the turning point in Harang’s 2008. In a May 25 extra innings game, Baker called on Harang in relief. He had pitched just two days prior. Managers have done this before, but Baker took it a bit far, using Harang for four innings in the eventual loss. He left that appearance with a 3.32 ERA and 3.75 FIP. For the rest of the season he had a 5.88 ERA and 5.62 FIP. That came down to a 4.21 ERA and 4.14 FIP in 2009, though his season was cut short when he needed an appendectomy. A strong performance from Harang could be key to the Reds’ 2010 season.

A pair of youngsters, Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto, will also have to step up this season if the Reds are to succeed. Cueto, 24, enters his third major league season. He’s struggled a bit to this point, posting a 4.61 ERA and 4.79 FIP over 345.1 innings. His strikeout rate dipped in 2009, though he did improve his walk rate. The most important thing for him, it seems, is keeping the ball in the park. He had the sixth worst home run rate in the NL last season, though Harang and Arroyo were worse. Bailey, also 24, struggled in his first two major league seasons. His 2009 started off poorly, too, but after allowing nine runs (six earned) against the Padres on July 27 he allowed just 31 the rest of the season in 82.2 innings. He’ll have to pitch more like that for all of 2010 for the Reds to have a chance. In his favor, he did have a 3.96 FIP in that late-season run.

Cincinnati’s bullpen last season was right around league average, though they could see that production regress a bit in 2010. Francisco Cordero, Nick Masset, and Arthur Rhodes all posted ERAs of 2.53 or lower, a tough mark for a reliever to maintain. Danny Herrera also had a good season, though his walk rate could stand to improve. If Jared Burton returns to his 2007 and 2008 levels while another young pitcher steps up, the Reds could again have a serviceable pen. As with all pens, though, it’s tough to project them with any degree of accuracy.

The 2010 Reds could be an exciting team. They feature a number of young, promising players who, if they move closer to their potentials in 2010, could provide the team with a much needed boost. A number of quality veterans fill the lineup and rotation as well. The combination should have fans in Cincinnati excited. The NL Central could be theirs if a few things break that way.

In December, I wrote a post about how Joe Crede was falling under the radar in the free agent market in 2010, much like he did in 2009, when he took a $2.5 million incentive-laden contract with the Twins. As I write today’s post, we are a mere two weeks from opening day, and Crede is still looking for a job. Reportedly, Crede isn’t retiring, and is remaining active and hoping for a job offer.

All the projection systems we have on site here project Crede as a -5 to -9 hitter over 600 plate appearances. Despite his injury issues, he still seems to be an excellent defender – his UZR/150 is 10.8 and his best fielding numbers have come in the most recent years. Putting that all together, Crede projects as a slightly above-average player, and even with an assumed injury limited season of 300 plate appearances, that’s 1.0-1.5 WAR.

So what did teams take this winter over Crede? Let’s take a look at some players who were part of the same 3B market as Crede (although some won’t be playing that position next year).

San Francisco re-signed Juan Uribe at $3.25MM, 1.2 proj. WAR
Baltimore acquired Garrett Atkins at $4.5MM, 0.5 proj. WAR
Baltimore signed Miguel Tejada at $6.0MM, 2.3 proj. WAR
Houston signed Pedro Feliz at $4.5MM, 2.0* proj. WAR
San Francisco signed Mark DeRosa at $6MM, 1.9 proj. WAR
Chicago (AL) acquired Mark Teahen at $3.75MM, 1.5 proj. WAR

And three other players have signed minor league contracts:
Texas signed Matt Brown, -0.5 proj. WAR
Los Angeles (AL) signed Robb Quinlan, -0.5 proj. WAR
Arizona signed Chad Tracy, -0.1 proj. WAR

San Francisco passed on Crede in two different situations, passing on the better 3B value in order to take the more versatile players in Uribe and DeRosa. In the case of Baltimore, Tejada is certainly a better hitter than Crede and less of an injury risk. Crede, however, is certainly the better fielder, and that makes their talent levels roughly even. It’s hard to imagine Crede not providing both a better value and more wins than Atkins.

For the Astros, Crede is just simply a better fit than Feliz. Feliz’s CHONE projection includes a very optimistic fielding projection of +9, which doesn’t fit with his progressively dropping UZR ratings and his advanced age of 34. It’s likely that Crede would provide more value both in the sense of the contract and wins than Feliz. Similarly, I think Crede would’ve been a better fit for the White Sox as opposed to the defensively challenged Teahen, and he wouldn’t have cost them as much money nor the control of Chris Getz and Josh Fields.

There are still some potential fits out there for Crede. I think he would make good Brandon Wood insurance for the Angels. A similar situation would be in St. Louis, where he could serve as David Freese insurance, but that role seems to have fallen on Felipe Lopez. It seems like a lack of versatility is what has hurt Crede’ options this winter, but Crede is still a talented player, and I would be surprised if he doesn’t latch on somewhere at some point in the season.

As we saw yesterday in my introductory post, there is really is no point in wasting time and resources trying to enter the season with five starters earmarked for 25+ starts. No. 5 starters, in the traditional sense, just don’t exist. The best bet is to focus on securing four starters that can make 24 starts or more. In the fifth spot in the rotation, a three-man job-share could then be developed and it would break down like this:

1. A long reliever who would serve as the seventh arm in the ‘pen and be expected to make eight to 10 starts on the year. Ideally, this would be a proven veteran who could stick at the MLB level all season.

2. A pitching prospect that projects to be a fringe No. 3 or 4 with two or three minor league options remaining. He would be introduced to the Majors in this low-pressure role over the next two to three seasons before officially (hopefully) graduating to the role of a reliable third or fourth starter. In this role, the pitcher would need to make about 10 starts at the MLB level each season.

3. A minor league “veteran” pitcher (somewhere in the 25-30 year old range) who has been unable to stick in the Majors – and still has at least one minor league option left – and can be relied on to make at least five starts on the season.

Let’s use a real team (The Toronto Blue Jays) to flesh out this example.
No. 1 starter: Ricky Romero
No. 2 starter: Shaun Marcum
No. 3 starter: Marc Rzepczynski
No. 4 starter: Brett Cecil

The job-share in the fifth spot would include:
1. Brian Tallet, as the long-man (0 options)
2. Brad Mills, as the prospect (2 options)
3. Lance Broadway, as the minor-league vet (1 option)

If all goes well, we can expect this group to make 23 starts out of the fifth spot, which more than most teams can hope for… and it leaves a little room to exceed expectation if one pitcher performs better than expected. But we should also have a safeguard because injuries and other unexpected situations always arise. In triple-A, Toronto would have a reliever capable of going 3-4 innings (Sean Stidfole, 3 options) to replace Tallet, along with two emergency starters that could fill in to replace Mills (Rey Gonzalez, 3 options) and Broadway (Randy Boone, 3 options).

This may seem like a lot of moving parts or a lot of resources to tie up in this situation but we know that a team is going to struggle to find five reliable starters each season (four will be tough to find for some), so it makes sense to plan ahead. Seven teams used 10 or more starters each that made 23 or fewer starts last season. Most of those pitchers will filling in the gap in the fifth hole in the rotation.

The best part of the Jays plan above, is the cost efficiency. Tallet will make $2 million in 2010 for his role as a spot starter and long man out of the bullpen. Mills and Broadway would make just over the minimum MLB salary when in the Majors, while the other three pitchers – if needed – would make exactly the minimum. In other words, you’d be filling a minimum of 23 starts on the year for less than $3 million. As well, by ensuring that everyone but Tallet has options remaining, the club will not risk losing any of these players in 2010.

Obviously this plan is not going to score a team 20 quality starts, so the goal would be to expect a league-average perform from the job-share when the 23 starts are averaged out. Even so, that’s solid value for less than $3 million. And if a significant injury strikes Tallet, Mills or Broadway, it’s not a catastrophic situation; you can have the other two pitchers pick up the slack, or bring up one of your back-ups. If you look at some of the pitching performances received from fill-in starters or supposed “No. 5 starters,” you find that the performances are most often well below league average. Scrambling to fill starts can also result in throwing millions of dollars at pitchers like Sidney Ponson to make five or six disappointing starts before a release is mercifully made.

So, to recap… This job-share plan is good because…
A) The inevitable pitching injuries will have a lesser (negative) impact
B) It will help train young pitchers for an eventual larger role
C) It’s cost efficient

It’s at least worth a try because we know the currently model is flawed for most – if not all – clubs.

J.P. Howell seems destined to miss at least a month. Howell is one of the better relievers in the division, so by no means is this soothing news, however the presence of Rafael Soriano lessens the sting a bit. The thing the team could miss the most is Howell’s versatility. Not just his ability to go multiple innings, but that his stuff plays up against lefties and righties alike. Grant Balfour and Dan Wheeler are decent, and yet the latter should never face a lefty in a close game, and the former has the ability to put on a walkathon that makes the March of Dimes proud.

The wild card is Joaquin Benoit, although there’s no health guarantee for either him or Soriano. Minor league cult heroes Winston Abreu and Dale Thayer could conceivably break camp with the squad, otherwise the Rays could push Lance Cormier into higher leverage situations while letting Mike Ekstrom or Jeff Bennett handle the mop-up duties. Alternatively, they could pursue a free agent reliever or someone via trade, but the significance of a missed month probably won’t trigger such.

Dioner Navarro suffered a bruised nerve in his leg on Saturday, a result of Jacque Jones colliding into him at the plate. Besides being the first thing Jones has hit solidly in many years, Navarro would seemingly be easier to replace than Howell if he misses a few weeks, something the Rays don’t anticipate occurring.

A deflated batting average on balls in play and a regressed sense of plate discipline lead to a .258 wOBA in 2009. How bad is that? Jason Kendall posted a .290 wOBA, which means Navarro was 32 points worse, Kendall is roughly 32 points worse than a Major League average hitter … and Navarro is double that. That’s bad. Mike Piazza could walk on tomorrow and outhit 2009 Navarro.

His refusal to walk is akin to a children’s refusal to take a bath. At one particularly low point in the season, Navarro saw four pitches during an at-bat. Two were inside (he swung at one of these), one was up and away but a strike nevertheless, and the final pitch bounced before it crossed the plate. Navarro swung on this pitch and struck out as a result. Anecdotal evidence, certainly, but the empirical data is there as well. Navarro’s best offensive skill is his ability to make contact with the baseball, but for reasons that only he knows for certain, he became timid – or perhaps unsatisfied – with taking pitches, and instead would attempt to put as many balls into play as possible. Navarro is a slap hitter at his best, and a weak groundout or infield fly at his worst.

It’s not that either of these injuries sink the Rays’ playoff ship, but they don’t help either.

Worry no more Minnesota fans; a soothing balm to news on Joe Nathan’s season-ending surgery has quickly arrived. According to sources, Joe Mauer has done what we mostly all expected and come to an extension agreement. There had been progress toward this all winter and while I am sure the news today bums out fans in New York and Boston, they should not be surprised.

At least, the idea that Joe Mauer is staying in Minnesota should not surprise them. What they, along with everyone else, might be surprised about is for how long. Though an ultimately bogus lead earlier in the off season had Mauer signing a ten-year contract, today’s announcement of an eight-year, $184 million deal is still an incredibly big one. Beginning in 2011 and covering only what would have been free agent years, Mauer averages $23 million per season through 2018, covering his age 28 through 35 seasons.

Mauer was worth an incredible eight wins last year even without any credit for his defense, which most regard as above average. Both CHONE and the Fans expect Mauer to be worth 7.3 wins this coming season, though I am skeptical that he maintains such a high value as a hitter while also catching as often as the projection systems have him doing. Mauer spent 109 games at catcher last season and 28 at designated hitter and I think that’s a roughly fair expectation for him in the future as well. You should always strive to be conservative when it comes to catchers.

Overall, I think a 6.5-win projection is a little more realistic for Mauer, a total that even with the recently depressed market, surpasses his AAV salary. In the short term, this deal is fair to both sides. Where it might get dicey is down the line when Mauer reaches his mid-30s. I don’t think him staying at catcher is needed for this to work out though. Mauer’s bat is good enough to stand a move to first base and he would benefit from a likely increase in playing time. My concern is simply that for being on the hook for eight years and giving him a full no trade clause, I feel the Twins should have gotten a bit more of a discount.

The general rule is that long term contracts get about a 10% discount for compounding injury risk. If you apply that here, Mauer’s $23 million per year acts more like $25.5 million in valuation, a figure that would require him to maintain a 6-win pace for the duration of his contract. Can he do that? Sure. He might even exceed it, but the downside outstrips the upside here. That’s only a nitpick though and it might turn out that some of that money is deferred. In the end, if Minnesota had to cover a few extra million in order to keep Mauer in the Twin Cities, it’s going to be worth it to them from a PR perspective and it’s great for baseball that such a star is staying in his home organization.

We read a lot of scouting reports and hear people comment that a pitcher’s potential is that of a No. 5 starter. Teams spend millions of dollars and thousands of hours crunching data to build a successful five-man rotation, but it’s all in vain. The truth of the matter is that these mythical creatures don’t actually exist.

If we look back to the 2009 season, only two teams had five starters on their pitching staffs that made 24 or more starts: the Chicago Cubs and the Colorado Rockies.

The Texas Rangers are considering moving reliever C.J. Wilson into their starting rotation, and he has done nothing but impress them this spring. Of course, one shouldn’t put undue (i.e., any) weight in spring training performances, but there are other ways of gauging whether Wilson might make a decent starter.

I first want to make clear that I’m not going to address two important issues: 1) How much of an increase in workload Wilson may or may not be able to handle, and 2) whether or not Wilson is more valuable in the rotation than in the bullpen. I will just be focusing on his chances of making the transition performance-wise (other than endurance).

How good would Wilson be as a starter? CHONE projects him to have a 3.70 FIP in 2010, and ZiPS projects him for 4.17 — an average of about 3.94. Both of those projections are based on Wilson’s performances as a reliever, and as a general rule one estimates that a reliever will be one run per 9 innings pitched worse as a starter. A 4.94 FIP isn’t replacement level, but even in Texas’ hitter-friendly home park, that’s nothing to get excited about other than as a stopgap or back-of-the-rotation type.

There are other reasons to be doubtful. For his career, he has pretty big platoon splits, posting a 3.39 FIP (3.36 xFIP) versus lefties, and a 4.58 FIP (4.26 xFIP) versus righties. While relievers can be put into games so as to maximize their platoon advantage, this is not the case for starters, and most of the time, hitters would have the advantage against Wilson.

Finally, while pitch-type linear weights don’t tell us everything about the quality of a Wilson’s repertoire (for example, sequencing), they do tell us something. Of Wilson’s primary offerings the last few seasons, only his fastball has been clearly above average, and this is important for starters, who have to face batters more than once.

The factors cited above tell against the likelihood of Wilson being very good as a starter. However, projection is always a tricky business, particularly in the case of pitchers, whose true talent is generally subject to more changee than that of hitters. Moreover, there are some interesting recent developments in Wilson’s case. So, with all the usual caveats, two things stand out to me from Wilson’s 2009. First, while Wilson has always been a favorable groundball/flyball ratio (a good thing anywhere; even if sometimes the ball goes towards Michael Young that’s better than it going out of the park), in 2009, he took it to a new level, at 2.25. Second, in 2009, Wilson’s platoon split was remarkably even: 2.81 FIP (3.60 xFIP) versus lefties, and 2.94 FIP (3.05 xFIP) versus righties.

Normally, I’d be pretty skeptical, primarily because it relies on just one year of data (and from a reliever-sized sample, at that). But there might be something more at work here. Some of the Rangers’ pitchers (including Wilson) have added a cutter. Again, usually I’d be wary — “adding a new pitch” is right up there with “in the best shape of his life” for Spring Training stories. But in Wilson’s case, it has some substance. According to his pitch types, his pitch use and selection changed in 2009. While he threw about the same number of changeups as before, he seems to have thrown his fastball less in favor of more sliders and cutters. While earlier I said that over multiple seasons the fastball was his only consistently effective pitch, there is the possibility that adding a cutter and throwing more sliders might have increased the overall effectiveness of his pitches (other than the still below-average changeup). The cutter, in particular, might help explain his greatly improved platoon splits in 2009.

I don’t have a firm conclusion. At first glance, we wouldn’t expect Wilson, a capable reliever, to be that effective as a starter. However, if the new cutter has not only helped his platoon issue but has expanded his repertoire so that he can to get through the order more than once (and perhaps get even more groundballs), then — provided he can handle a starter’s workload over a full season — the Rangers might have something more than just a stopgap starter on their hands.*

* Thanks to David Appelman and pitch f/x expert Mike Fast for their helpful responses to my emails on this subject. Neither of them, of course, should be held responsible for any mistakes and/or misguided analysis in this post.

Unlike the last team on this list, the Tigers spend a lot of money; they just don’t spend it very well. They’ve committed nearly $130 million towards their 2010 payroll, which should be more than enough to build a contender, but $65 million of that is going to Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen, Jeremy Bonderman, Dontrelle Willis, and Nate Robertson. Yikes. The money wasted on those fives guys slashes the Tigers effective payroll dramatically, and is one of the main reasons why the team has had to settle for not-good-enough options at key spots on the roster.

Overall, much like the Giants and White Sox, there are strengths surrounded by too many weaknesses, making the team an unlikely winner in 2010. There are scenarios where they could beat out the Twins for the AL Central, but I wouldn’t suggest putting money on it happening. There are just too many problem spots – the back of the rotation, the outfield, the middle infield, the health of Brandon Inge… it’s a pretty long list of areas of concern. Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera cannot win this division by themselves.

Looking ahead, the Tigers do have a large stable of expiring contracts, which should give them some additional financial flexibility going forward, but they’re also going to have to rebuild almost the entire roster with that money. Five of their everyday position players are aging free agents who will likely need to be replaced in 2011, and they’ll need new 4th and 5th starters as well. It wouldn’t be quite as large of a task if the farm system was ready to produce players that could fill these holes, but that’s simply not the case in Detroit.

The Tigers minor league system has some high ceiling young arms, but they’re not close to major league ready, and there’s just not much in the way of high level position players who can be expected to become regulars. While trying to contend in 2010, Dave Dombrowski is also going to have to get some young everyday players who he can build around, because there are a lot of holes going forward in this organization.

You can’t build a long term winner through free agency alone, and the Tigers are now paying the price for some of the contracts they’ve handed out in years past. They’re attempting to rebuild the core of the team while also contending, but from my perspective, it looks like they’re not going to get maximum results from either effort. The effect – an older team with lots of future question marks that isn’t quite good enough to win in 2010. That’s not a great spot to be in.

Change is afoot in Detroit, as the rebuilding of the Tigers organization began this offseason with the acquisitions of Austin Jackson, Max Scherzer, Phil Coke and Daniel Schlereth. The team complemented their budget shaving of Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson with a long-term deal for Justin Verlander. The plan is clear: build around Verlander and Miguel Cabrera, and slowly begin to shed the long-term commitments that handcuffed Dave Dombrowski in recent offseasons.

The good news is the sanity of the front office, beginning with Dombrowski, who has his weaknesses but is also a trained artist at rebuilding organizations. Dombrowski’s best signing with the Tigers might be scouting director David Chadd, who has done well with a large scouting budget since coming over from the Boston Red Sox. Surely, part of the sales pitch was the budget itself, as it has afforded Chadd the ability to draft players like Rick Porcello and Jacob Turner, even when their bonus demands scared away other teams.

Every scouting director has his preferences, and Chadd is as transparent as anyone. Porcello is 6-foot-5. Ryan Perry is 6-foot-4. Turner is 6-foot-5. Casey Crosby is 6-foot-5. Etcetera. The team is stacked with these types of pitchers, going after guys with an intimidating presence, an intimidating fastball, and a downhill plane. In this sense, there might be no one better to build around than Verlander.

This is going to create the effect of a revolving door of flamethrowers in Detroit, and could mean some really nice pitching staffs. Porcello is only going to get better in his second season — his start against the Twins last season in Game 163 showed the type of pitcher he can be consistently. Scherzer is a great asset that will be under control for the length of Verlander’s extension, and the lower minors will be stocked with guys looking to join them in 2012 or so. Crosby and fellow lefty Andy Oliver will bring some left-handed mix to the Tigers rotation, and the reports on Turner are fantastic.

The bullpen is just as good, as the Tigers will have a lot of cheap options to pair with the expensive Jose Valverde. Ryan Perry held his own last year after being rushed to the Majors, and is now reunited with a former college teammate on a similar schedule, Daniel Schlereth. It won’t be long until they are joined by Cody Satterwhite and Robbie Weinhardt, which again will create a very similar, yet very dangerous, pitching staff.

Once again, however, we are left wondering if a team’s offense will be able to keep up with the pitching staff. It will be important for Cabrera to stay good for a long time, both because of his cost on the roster and a lack of other dangerous middle of the order hitters. Ryan Strieby could add some power in the DH slot, and you’ll still cross an occasional believer in Wilkin Ramirez or Casper Wells, but most likely, the middle of the order will have to come from outside the organization.

Dambrowski can probably make do with the surrounding pieces, starting with his new toy, centerfielder Austin Jackson. Few prospects spark such a wide range of opinions, but I think we can sort of set a median expectation on his performance last season in Triple-A. Jackson has the athleticism to blossom into something more powerful, and the baseball savvy to become more patient, but anticipating anything north of .350 in the wOBA column for his team-controlled seasons is projecting too optimistically.

Jackson will be joined as a rookie on this roster by both Scott Sizemore and Alex Avila, middle-round college guys with low upsides. These aren’t guys that will hurt, and aren’t guys likely to exceed 2 WAR anytime in the future. Truly, the only player in the system I think you can hope for more than that is Daniel Fields, a prep shortstop given $1.625 million last year. But Fields is too far away to be a factor in this series, so the point remains: Chadd’s obsession with big pitchers may have gotten in the way of creating a balanced farm system. Things will be different in Detroit very soon, but the idea of looking for offense on the free agent market will remain a Tigers staple for the foreseeable future.

As Dave C. noted we are getting to the teams that have a shot at sneaking into the playoffs if a number of things break their way. The Tigers are such a team. With their talent, and with the benefit of playing in the AL Central, they have a non-negligible chance at post-season play. That is not say they should be considered the favorites in their division. In fact, most projection systems see them as a sub-80 win team and the third best, if not worse, team in the division.

On the position player side they have one true superstar in Miguel Cabrera, who, at 26, is an amazing player — producing five-plus-win seasons in four of the past five years. After that, though, the position player talent on the team is relatively poor. CHONE sees Johnny Damon as the best position player after Cabrera, which is not a ringing endorsement. Joining Damon on the wrong side of thirty in the Tigers’ starting lineup are Gerald Laird, Brandon Inge, Adam Everett, Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen. These five guys, over half of the Tigers’ starting lineup, are not only declining but probably at best slightly above-average and, more likely, slightly below-average starters.

The starting lineup rounds out with two guys who have never had major league at-bats, Austin Jackson and Scott Sizemore. It is nice to have this young, cost-controlled talent, but that is for the next post on future talent; here, we are looking at current talent and, again, these guys are probably below-average major leaguers at this point. On a positive note, the Tigers have a solid fourth outfielder in Ryan Raburn, which is important with Damon and Ordonez in the starting lineup.

The rotation is probably a little better. Justin Verlander broke out in a big way last year and is a legitimate number-one starter. After that, Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello are talented young pitchers who would be assets in most rotations. But each is not without concerns, Scherzer for his health and Porcello for the likelihood of BABIP-based regression. And although only the best teams can boast good pitchers one-to-five, the bottom two-fifths of the Tigers’s rotation — two of Jeremy Bonderman, Dontrelle Willis, Nate Robertson and Eddie Bonine — seems particularly suspect.

There is talent on the team for sure — Verlander and Cabrera are superstars — but the supporting cast has too many below-average players. The position players particularly are a mix of guys either whose peaks are a little too far off in the future or too far removed in the past — or guys who never had much a peak to begin with. As I said at the beginning, it is a team that should win around 80 games and will only make the playoffs if things break right.