This week we received news of two notable retirements, Nomar Garciaparra and Brian Giles. Both ranked among the best players of their time, and will probably receive some Hall of Fame consideration. Satchel Price took on Garciapparra’s case while Ben Jedlovec discussed Giles’s, but both concluded that the players will likely fall short. I guess those articles put the Hall of Fame in the front of my mind, because when I read that Lance Berkman might miss Opening Day following knee surgery, I wondered about his chances of enshrinement in the future.

The numbers Berkman has accumulated in his 11 big league seasons are nothing short of spectacular. He has hit .299/.412/.555, good for a .408 wOBA. His career OPS+, 147, matches that of Alex Rodriguez, while his wOBA falls just .004 short of A-Rod. With numbers like that, comparable with one of the best players of this generation, it might seem like Berkman has a strong Hall case. Unfortunately, this surface analysis leaves out a number of important factors.

One major aspect that separates Berkman and Rodriguez is position. Through his career Berkman has played the outfield and first base, spending some time in center, but mostly at the corners. Meanwhile, Rodriguez has posted his stats as a shortstop and third baseman, where offense isn’t as easily found. Still, a 147 OPS+ and .408 wOBA represents an excellent career, no matter the position. In other words, while voters should keep Berkman’s position in mind, his rate stats are at a level where it shouldn’t be a deal breaker.

What might cost Berkman support is his time in the league. He has played 11 big league seasons, though only 10 with more than 400 PA and nine with more than 550. That puts him a bit short in the counting stats, which certainly count heavily with voters. He’s accumulated just 1,575 career hits and 313 home runs, leaving him a bit short by HOF standards.

Berkman still has plenty of time, at least by traditional standards. He will play 2010 at age 34, which means he could still have a number of productive seasons. After 2010, assuming he recovers well from the knee surgery, he should have somewhere around 50 career WAR (from the career WAR leaderboard), which would put him around 170th all-time. He also figures to pass a number of Hall of Famers this year, including Kirby Puckett. With a few more productive seasons he could push himself ahead of a few more HOFers.

The question, though, is of whether Berkman will continue to play into his late 30s. The Astros hold a $15 million option for 2011, and given their financial situation they might decline it. At that point Berkman could sign else where — and he’s already said that he’d probably depart Houston in that case — but that’s not a certainty. Berkman has said that he could retire if he feels he’s not as productive as he wants to be. Retirement after the 2010 or 2011 seasons would almost certainly kill his Hall chances. If he remains healthy for, say, four more seasons, though, maybe he can make a case.

At 313 career home runs, it’s a long shot for Berkman to hit the 500 mark over the next four seasons. He’d have to average 47 per season, a mark he has never attained. At his current 162-game average, 34, he’d have to play five and a half more seasons — and that doesn’t even factor in declining skills. It could realistically take him six or seven more seasons to hit that mark, and it doesn’t sound like Berkman would be up for that. We can also rule out the 3,000 hit club, as it took him 11 seasons to get even halfway there. In other words, even if he plays through 2013 he’s going to be a tough sell to the HOF voters.

Then again, there are players in the Hall with far lesser numbers. Take Puckett for instance. He posted a career 124 OPS+ and had just 2,304 its and 207 home runs. If Berkman plays another four seasons he’ll come close to Puckett’s hit total, while beating him in just about every other offensive category. Puckett’s main advantage, of course, was that he played center field in 1,432 of his 1,729 career games. Even with the positional adjustment, though, Berkman figures to surpass Puckett in WAR this season, Berkman’s 12th, the same number of seasons Puckett played.

Chances are that once he hangs up his cleats, we’ll see articles about Berkman similar to the ones we saw about Garciaparra and Giles. Like the other two, he ranks among the best players of his time, but he falls short in terms of voter criteria. If he posts four more seasons of 5 WAR ball, he’ll be up at the level of Ozzie Smith, Tim Raines, and Roberto Alomar. Will the voters a decade from now recognize that? If they do perhaps Berkman has a case. Otherwise, it appears he’ll finish just outside the threshold.

Well, not everyone agreed with my Top 50 AL prospects or my Top 50 NL prospects, but that’s to be expected. From a traffic perspective, they were hugely popular, so hopefully everyone will enjoy critiquing the Top 100. After all, that’s what they’re hear for: we love reader input at FanGraphs. (As long as it’s constructive, that is.) I don’t think you can really take just one list/point-of-view and consider it prospect gospel; you have to read a variety of opinions, as no one person is right on every prospect or with every ranking.

So, with no further ado…

1. Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves
2. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington Nationals
3. Desmond Jennings, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
4. Mike Stanton, OF, Florida Marlins
5. Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants
6. Neftali Feliz, RHP, Texas Rangers
7. Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland Indians
8. Jesus Montero, C/1B, New York Yankees
9. Domonic Brown, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
10. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates

11. Christian Friedrich, LHP, Colorado Rockies
12. Dustin Ackley, 2B/OF, Seattle Mariners
13. Brian Matusz, LHP, Baltimore Orioles
14. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
15. Alcides Escobar, SS, Milwaukee Brewers
16. Justin Smoak, 1B, Texas Rangers
17. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, San Francisco Giants
18. Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Cincinnati Reds
19. Chris Carter, 1B, Oakland Athletics
20. Martin Perez, LHP, Texas Rangers

21. Logan Morrison, 1B, Florida Marlins
22. Casey Kelly, RHP, Boston Red Sox
23. Aaron Hicks, OF, Minnesota Twins
24. Andrew Cashner, RHP, Chicago Cubs
25. Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs
26. Tyler Matzek, LHP, Colorado Rockies
27. Tim Beckham, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
28. Wade Davis, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
29. Michael Montgomery, LHP, Kansas City Royals
30. Devaris Gordon, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers

31. Derek Norris, C, Washington Nationals
32. Brett Wallace, 3B/1B, Toronto Blue Jays
33. Kyle Drabek, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
34. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
35. Ryan Westmoreland, OF, Boston Red Sox
36. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves
37. Julio Teheran, RHP, Altanta Braves
38. Josh Bell, 3B, Baltimore Orioles
39. Tyler Flowers, C, Chicago White Sox
40. Hank Conger, C, Los Angeles Angels

41. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City Royals
42. Shelby Miller, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
43. Wilson Ramos, C, Minnesota Twins
44. Casey Crosby, LHP, Detroit Tigers
45. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals
46. Fernando Martinez, OF, New York Mets
47. Yonder Alonso, 1B, Cincinnati Reds
48. Josh Vitters, 3B, Chicago Cubs
49. Austin Romine, C, New York Yankees
50. Michael Taylor, OF, Oakland Athletics

51. Austin Jackson, OF, Detroit Tigers
52. Matthew Moore, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays
53. Jason Castro, C, Houston Astros
54. Brad Lincoln, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
55. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Cleveland Indians
56. Zach Wheeler, RHP, San Francisco Giants
57. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Atlanta Braves
58. Jordan Lyles, RHP, Houston Astros
59. Brett Lawrie, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers
60. Tony Sanchez, C, Pittsburgh Pirates

61. Zach McAllister, RHP, New York Yankees
62. Zach Stewart, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
63. Ike Davis, 1B/OF, New York Mets
64. Jenrry Mejia, RHP, New York Mets
65. Daniel Hudson, RHP, Chicago White Sox
66. Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Texas Rangers
67. Jacob Turner, RHP, Detroit Tigers
68. Simon Castro, RHP, San Diego Padres
69. Jhoulys Chacin, RHP, Colorado Rockies
70. Brandon Erbe, RHP, Baltimore Orioles

71. Jordan Walden, RHP, Los Angeles Angels
72. Junichi Tazawa, RHP, Boston Red Sox
73. Jake Arrieta, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
74. Brandon Allen, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks
75. Thomas Neal, OF, San Francisco Giants
76. Alex White, RHP, Cleveland Indians
77. Kyle Gibson, RHP, Minnesota Twins
78. Zach Britton, LHP, Baltimore Orioles
79. Jio Mier, SS, Houston Astros
80. Ethan Martin, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers

81. Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels
82. Matt Dominguez, 3B, Florida Marlins
83. Ian Desmond, SS, Washington Nationals
84. Michael Saunders, OF, Seattle Mariners
85. Nick Hagadone, LHP, Cleveland Indians
86. J.P. Arencibia, C, Toronto Blue Jays
87. Logan Forsythe, 3B, San Diego Padres
88. Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Chicago Cubs
89. Trevor Reckling, LHP, Los Angeles Angels
90. Nick Barnese, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays

91. Hector Rondon, RHP, Cleveland Indians
92. Mike Leake, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
93. Jose Tabata, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
94. Danny Duffy, LHP, Kansas City Royals
95. Chris Heisey, OF, Cincinnati Reds
96. Andrew Lambo, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
97. Mat Gamel, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers
98. Jaff Decker, OF, San Diego Padres
99. Jay Jackson, RHP, Chicago Cubs
100. Trevor May, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies

With projected catcher Rob Johnson slow to heal from offseason hip surgery, it’s becoming more and more likely the Seattle Mariners could open the season with prospect Adam Moore as the starter. The 24-year-old has responded positively to his opportunity in Spring Training, as he enters Friday 8-for-14 at the plate in Peoria. Moore is the most talented catcher in the Mariners organization, so it’s certainly possible this opportunity could be a springboard into a full-time position in 2010 and going forward. Today, I want to look at how Moore looks as a prospect, given what we already know about WAR’s affinity for catchers.

Let’s start with the defense, where the consensus is such that Moore has work to do with his receiving skills, but remains a modest talent behind the plate. He threw out 31% of runners last season, which is neither positive or negative, which tends to reflect scouts’ overall impressions of his defensive capabilities. We don’t even factor defensive plus-minus for catchers into our WAR calculations, but it’s something that you should consider for any catcher’s runs above replacement tally. I think in a full season of work, Moore would be a -2.5 behind the plate — no one believes he is a positive, but given that there has never even been talk of moving him from backstop, we have to assume he won’t be bad defensively.

The problem with that adjustment is when I say “a full season of work.” Catchers aren’t ever given this, and Moore will never be so good offensively that he will DH in his off days. So, even a perfect world projection of Moore’s ultimate playing time would suggest 100-130 games per season. We have also begun to account for a non-perfect world projection in the Replacement adjustment of our calculation. Ultimately, there’s three possibilities for Moore’s career: regular catcher, back-up catcher, and bust. I truly believe the latter is the least possible outcome; Clay Davenport’s minor league translations have Moore at .265/.315/.397 as a 24 year old in Triple-A. He’s ready.

If we say the perfect world projection for Moore is 125 games (we’re calling it 480 PA’s), a bust represents 0 games, and a back-up gig probably is good for about 180 plate appearances. I’m going to say the likelihood of outcomes is something like 40/20/40 — which works out to 264 PA’s. This would mean 8.8 in the replacement adjustment (versus +16 perfect world), +5.5 in the positional adjustment (versus +10) and changes our defensive dock to only 1.1 negative runs.

I’ll look at this 480 PA perfect world projection to predict offensive performance. Again, we’re going to stray from the scientific when considering offensive projection to keep things concise. I’m thinking 20% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate, a .290 BABIP, and 12 home runs. So in 480 plate appearances: 96 K, 36 BB, 4 HBP, 12 HR, 1 3B, 35 2B, 60 1B, 3 RBOE. That’s a .321 wOBA, which by the way, is exactly what the fans projected for Moore this season. I’m going to call Moore -2 offensively.

So, perfect world, we have: -2 offense, +16 replacement, +10 def. adjustment, -2 defense: 2.2 WAR. And, non-scientifically accounting for his bust potential leaves us with: -2 offense, +8.8 replacement, +5.5 def. adjustment, -1.1 defense: 1.1 WAR. Interestingly, that represents the same “floor” I projected Domonic Brown at earlier in the week, but a far cry from the 3.8 perfect world that Brown was given. It passes the smell test for me, and I think Mariners fans will be happy to get 2 wins from the catching spot: Dan Wilson and Kenji Johjima only did that six times in 15 years.

Yesterday, I had the pleasure to attend a Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds spring training game with Dave Allen, Dave Cameron, Brian Joura, David Appelman, and Matt Klaassen. The Brewers sent their B-team to Goodyear Park, leaving us with a riveting match up featuring such icons as Jody Gerut, Kentrail Davis, Chris Narveson, Laynce Nix, Carson Cistulli All-Star Juan Francisco, and 6’8” giant Logan Ondrusek.

The most recognizable figure at the park in a Brewers uniform just may have been Jim Edmonds, in Brewers camp as a non-roster invitee. Edmonds went 2-3 on Thursday, with a couple of decent-but-not-greatly hit balls and two catches on fly balls directly at him. The 2-3 day at the plate moved Edmonds to .364 on the spring season, and at that rate, Edmonds would have a good shot at the Brewers fifth outfield spot, over such players as Joe Inglett and Norris Hopper.

How productive can Edmonds actually be? He took all of 2009 off and wasn’t that productive in either 2007 or 2008. CHONE projects him to be near replacement level, with a terrible bat and average glove in a corner spot. Some players can handle a year off – Gabe Kapler, for example, came back after a year of managing in A-ball to put up 1.8 wins in only 229 PAs.

We know that Edmonds could quite easily end up below replacement level. What’s his ceiling, though? In 2008, he was pretty productive with the bat, putting up a 115 wRC+ in 400 PAs, all despite a career low (and by a country mile) BABIP of .249. His HR/FB rate returned to near his career average of 20%, as in 2007 it had dropped to 9%, another career low by another wide margin.

A drop to a -15 UZR in 2008 at the age of 38 wasn’t particularly surprising, and expecting Edmonds to be an average or even passable center fielder after a year off wouldn’t be fair. He probably fits as a slightly below average corner outfielder at this time. Still, given what appears to be terrible luck on fly balls Edmonds in 2007 and on balls in play overall in 2008, there is some upside here.

Of course, the key word in the previous sentence is “appears.” With aging players, it’s possible that they just can’t get fly balls over the fence any more, or they just can’t hit the ball consistently hard enough to drop them in for hits. In Edmonds’ case, we can’t say for sure if it was the effects of aging or if it was simply random variation in batted balls. If it is random variation, we could see Edmonds hit well above average, making him a roughly league average player off the bench. That’s his absolute upside, but as a non-roster invitee, you can’t ask for much more if you’re the Milwaukee Brewers, and it will be very interesting to watch Edmonds’ progression this spring.

Let’s just get this part out of the way: The Mets have issues. Lots of issues. But, as if Jose Reyes’ thyroid, repeated late-season meltdowns, questionable ownership finances, and an assistant general manager turning into Hulk Hogan weren’t bad enough, now this appears:

LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. – If Jenrry Mejia is assigned to the Mets’ Double-A team, he’s not going to be stretched out enough to immediately contribute in the Binghamton rotation. Jerry Manuel is determined to begin using Mejia in short and frequent relief spurts, to gauge how he reacts to pitching in that capacity, the Daily News has learned. The expectation is Mejia will remain in big-league camp through the final week working as a reliever.

The scariest part of this is not that Jerry Manuel is evidently making decisions on prospects. It’s that Omar Minaya is either in complete agreement or is totally indifferent to the situation at hand. Minaya’s job is to handle the team’s present and future assets with care and diligence. Manuel’s job is to manage the players assembled by Minaya and provide input on the margins, not to decide in autonomous fashion what capacity the team’s best pitching prospect should be used during spring. Neither is doing their job.

This becomes less of a possibility and more of a certainty once you realize who we’re talking about. Save the comparisons to Neftali Feliz and David Price. Neither began the season in their respective Major League team’s bullpen and both had more experience starting. Those two situations were of special circumstance (that circumstance being a heated playoff run). The Mets aren’t doing this to limit Mejia’s innings or propel them towards the playoffs. Well, they might actually be doing it for the latter, but more on that in a moment.

This is all tempting because Mejia is a great arm. Keith Law had his fastball sitting in the 93-96 range with cutting action and noted his overall repertoire as “top-of-the-rotation stuff” – big praise for a 20-year-old with a little over 150 innings of experience outside of short-season ball. Baseball America ranked Mejia as the Mets’ top prospect and quoted catcher Josh Thole as saying that the movement on Mejia’s heater convinced batters that it was a slider. They also note that Manuel watched Mejia during Arizona Fall League action to gauge whether he could be of relief help in 2010.

Could Mejia jump to the Majors in three weeks and succeed? Probably. He’d probably pitch quite well out of the bullpen. He has a fastball so hot that it removes the wrinkles from opposing hitters’ shirts. He could really dial that baby up even more in limited action. He might just be the best set-up man in the National League. Heck, maybe the next Mariano Rivera. And then what?

Well, then the Mets enter 2011, which happens to be the final year that Francisco Rodriguez is guaranteed a paycheck. It’s also the final year that Oliver Perez, Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, and Luis Castillo are under contract. It’s a big year. It could be the final year they have this nucleus to really go for it before drastically altering the look of the roster. So, maybe they move Mejia to the rotation. Maybe he hits the ground running and never looks back. Or maybe, like Joba Chamberlain, he has a few hiccups moving to the rotation permanently, and rather than sending him down, they send him to the bullpen where he once again turns the eighth inning into Hades for opposing hitters. And then what?

Well, then the Mets enter 2012 and Mejia is their closer. And then what?

Well, then the Mets enter 2013 and Mejia is still their closer. And so on.

Yes, that entire scenario is derived from a lack of confidence in the Mets and their ability to properly handle the situation. Did it fall down a slippery slope and is it a bit melodramatic? Yes, most likely. But at the same time, if they place Mejia in the pen it will open Pandora’s Box moving forward. More concisely: It sets the table for confirmation bias when Mejia is moved back to the rotation.

This isn’t Earl Weaver with Dennis Martinez, Wayne Garland, or Scott McGregor. Those guys had hundreds of minor league innings before Weaver broke them in as a long reliever. This is reckless handling of a long-term asset in order to save Manuel and Minaya’s jobs. Maybe that’s too harsh, but these guys have not earned the benefit of the doubt.

Episode Twelve
In which the guest is a frigging legend.

Headlines
The Rise and Further Rise of Daryl Morey
Fouled by Mark Cuban (and Other Notes from MIT-Sloan)
Moneyball and Breaking News
The Art of Sportswriting
… and other flights of whimsy!

Featuring
Rob Neyer

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Audio on the flip-flop.

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On Tuesday, SI’s Tom Verducci reported that a Bud Selig-chartered committee has begun to discuss a principle of “floating” realignment, whereby teams could choose their division of choice on a yearly basis “based on geography, payroll and their plans to contend or not.” The committee is largely made up of senior managers, front office personnel, and corporate executives — so they aren’t exactly teenage Bolsheviks. (Notably, there are no players on the committee, which means the union would be another hurdle if MLB ever decides to move forward.)

Rob Neyer was quick to point out the extreme logistical impracticality of it all: because of the Byzantine complexity of the baseball schedule, teams would have to decide “their plans to contend or not” months ahead of time and coordinate them with the team they were going to swap with. The basic tradeoff: a team (like the Orioles) might want to move from the AL East to an easier division, but they would be foregoing the revenue injections that come from 18 home games a year against the Yankees and Red Sox. A smaller-market team (like the Indians) might want to increase revenues by facing the juggernauts more often, but it might lose a few more games. The notion of a team willingly admitting that it has no “plans to contend” seems a bit hard to swallow, but the “rebuilding” euphemism is used all the time, so it’s quite likely that fans could come around.

The real issue is fairness. Ever since the beginning of divisional play in 1969, postseason play has not necessarily been awarded to teams with the best postseason records, but rather to the teams that ended the year at the top of their division. Famously, the 103-win 1993 Giants tied the NL West, lost a one-game playoff to the Atlanta Braves, and watched the rest of the postseason from home, while the 97-win Philadelphia Phillies won the NL East and went on to win the World Series. The Wild Card was meant to allow a good team in a strong division to make it into the playoffs, but even the Wild Card can’t change the fact that the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays are stuck in an essentially unwinnable division, with three strong teams, two of which are the richest teams in the game. Thanks to the unbalanced schedule, they play a third of their games against those three teams, which Neyer notes isn’t fair either.

The AL East has been broken for some time now. The five teams finished in the exact same order for seven straight years from 1998-2004; since the beginning of the three-division era, either Boston or New York won the division every year from 1994-2009, with the exception of the Orioles in 1997 (the following year, they had baseball’s highest payroll!) and the Rays in 2008. The thing is, no one’s going to move heaven and earth to make life more convenient for the O’s and Jays. Floating realignment is a fascinating solution to the structural disparity in the AL East, and the fact that it’ll never happen doesn’t mean that it shouldn’t be taken seriously.

Historically, realignment has been tied to expansion, but we’re not getting a 31st team any time soon. Periodic realignment may not be such a bad idea, though, especially considering that the NL Central has 6 teams and the AL West has 4, bizarrely handicapping those teams’ relative postseason chances. Especially if baseball is going to continue to operate without a payroll cap or payroll floor, other solutions like this need to be considered in order to ensure that every team has a fair shot at October. Baseball’s inequality need not be iniquitous.

(An earlier version of this blog post messed up the entire chronology of 1993. The Giants lost the NL West and the Phillies lost the World Series.)

Following up the recent Top 10 lists for each club in Major League Baseball, we now have the Top 50 prospects in the National League. Yesterday, we looked at the American League Top 50 prospects. Tomorrow, we’ll combine them together and see how the Top 100 MLB Prospects list breaks down.

The Top 10 NL Prospects
1. Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves
2. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington Nationals
3. Mike Stanton, OF, Florida Marlins
4. Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants
5. Domonic Brown, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
6. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates
7. Christian Friedrich, LHP, Colorado Rockies
8. Alcides Escobar, SS, Milwaukee Brewers
9. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, San Francisco Giants
10. Aroldis Chapman, RHP, Cincinnati Reds

Just Missed the Top 10
11. Logan Morrison, 1B, Florida Marlins
12. Andrew Cashner, RHP, Chicago Cubs
13. Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs
14. Tyler Matzek, LHP, Colorado Rockies
15. Devaris Gordon, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
16. Derek Norris, C, Washington Nationals
17. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
18. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves
19. Julio Teheran, RHP, Altanta Braves
20. Shelby Miller, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals

The Middle of the Pack
21. Fernando Martinez, OF, New York Mets
22. Yonder Alonso, 1B, Cincinnati Reds
23. Josh Vitters, 3B, Chicago Cubs
24. Jason Castro, C, Houston Astros
25. Brad Lincoln, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
26. Zach Wheeler, RHP, San Francisco Giants
27. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Atlanta Braves
28. Jordan Lyles, RHP, Houston Astros
29. Brett Lawrie, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers
30. Tony Sanchez, C, Pittsburgh Pirates

31. Ike Davis, 1B/OF, New York Mets
32. Jenrry Mejia, RHP, New York Mets
33. Simon Castro, RHP, San Diego Padres
34. Jhoulys Chacin, RHP, Colorado Rockies
35. Brandon Allen, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks
36. Thomas Neal, OF, San Francisco Giants
37. Jio Mier, SS, Houston Astros
38. Ethan Martin, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
39. Matt Dominguez, 3B, Florida Marlins
40. Ian Desmond, SS, Washington Nationals

The Final 10 NL Prospects
41. Logan Forsythe, 3B, San Diego Padres
42. Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Chicago Cubs
43. Mike Leake, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
44. Jose Tabata, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
45. Chris Heisey, OF, Cincinnati Reds
46. Andrew Lambo, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
47. Mat Gamel, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers
48. Jaff Decker, OF, San Diego Padres
49. Jay Jackson, RHP, Chicago Cubs
50. Trevor May, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies

Kevin Hart represents one-third of the return on Josh Grabow and Tom Gorzelanny (the other two-thirds being Josh Harrison and Jose Ascanio). He’s a study, six-foot-four, 220-something pound righty out of the University of Maryland. Originally drafted by the Baltimore Orioles in 2004, the Cubs acquired Hart in late 2006 to complete the Freddie Bynum deal. That deal looks worse in retrospect since at the time, Hart was 23 and coming off a rough stint in High-A. At least Bynum runs fast.

Hart pitched 148 innings while boasting a FIP of 4.65 and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 1.88 despite striking out more than seven per nine innings. The Cubs ignored his struggles and promoted him to Double-A where he would find his groove, notching a KSO/BB ratio of 3.41 in 102 innings. They would then promote him to Triple-A Iowa, where he’s spent most of the last two seasons, laying in wait for a rotation or bullpen spot to permanently fill.

That’s not to say Hart hasn’t had some chances. In 2008, the Cubs used him in 21 games in a mop-up role. He performed so-so, while battling with control issues. He spent last July in the Cubs’ rotation, pitching rather poorly and walking more batters than he fanned. His Pirates’ tenure wasn’t too much better, with him posting a similarly poor FIP of 5.16 in what amounted to 53 innings.

So, interestingly enough, CHONE projects Hart to post a 4.19 FIP this year, despite a career 4.89 mark in roughly 120 innings. Is there reason to be that optimistic? I think so. Baseball America ranked Hart as the Cubs’ sixth best prospect in January 2009, citing his nastiness as a reliever. It’s too soon for the Pirates to give up on Hart’s starting career though. He throws fastballs in the low-to-mid 90s while mixing in a cutter and a particularly effective curve that rests on the crest of the high-70s. This has resulted in a fair amount of missed bats (78.2% contact rate) and groundballs (46% grounders).

Hart’s issue has been control. He’s finding the zone at a career rate of 45.5%. Of qualified starters last year, only Joe Saunders (43.8%) pitched within the zone less often. That’s not always a bad thing though, as long as batters are convinced to chase often. To his credit, Hart has tempted batters to swing nearly 30% of the time while making contact with those pitches 58% of the time. That’s a profile similar to Chad Billingsley and John Lackey. Someone is going to take that comparison and run with it, but the difference is that Billingsley and Lackey can find the zone when they want to, something Hart needs to do given his handful of walks per nine.

The 27-year-old figures to spend this year in the Pirates’ rotation. He might not be a sexy name, or a hot prospect anymore, but Hart could still become a useful pitcher if he starts throwing strikes again.

In the year 2005, Chad Orvella and Andy Sisco flashed promise as two of the league’s youngest and more successful relievers.

Orvella was 24-years-old and appeared in 37 games with the Devil Rays. Two years earlier, the Rays had taken Orvella in the thirteenth round of the draft. Orvella had been the starting shortstop for the North Carolina State Wolfpack while occasionally pitching. The Rays converted him to pitching full-time and he flew through the lower ranks. In his first 85 professional innings, Orvella struck out over 130 batters. A 25 inning stint with Double-A Montgomery ended with Orvella posting a 0.36 ERA, 1.8 FIP, 12.8 K/9, and a 6.11 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Such success continued for Orvella upon reaching the majors. His K/BB ratio slipped under 2, but he still managed to post a 3.78 FIP in 50 innings.

In spring training 2006, the Rays and new pitching coach Mike Butcher messed with Orvella’s mechanics, attempting to make him more aerodynamic and less of base-stealers’ delight in those high leverage situations. Naturally, Orvella lost all ability to throw strikes. He’s seen 32 Major League innings since and walked 30 (one of those being an intentional walk); in his first season he walked 23 in 50 innings and he’s walked 40 in 124 Triple-A innings.

Sisco, once described as Randy Johnson’s height meets David Wells’ belly, never took precautions to hide his control problems. He just flaunted them openly while striking out more than a batter per inning. Through nearly 150 innings in the Majors, he’s averaging 5.7 walks per nine. Even still, his career Zone% is 50% exactly. Orvella’s 2006 Zone% was 47.8%. Let that sink in for a moment. The Angels have signed Orvella to a minor league deal in hopes that maybe he can rekindle what made him appear to be the Rays’ future closer way back when.

Sisco was the Royals’ 2005 version of Matt Thornton. He appeared in 67 games, posting a 3.11 ERA and a 3.79 FIP. His strikeouts slipped, his walks increased, and he started giving up homers in 2006. That’s a really bad combination, and Sisco found himself on the way out of Kansas City as Dayton Moore flipped him for Ross Gload. Sisco has pitched 14 innings in the Majors since. The Royals didn’t get a steal though, since Gload produced -0.5 WAR over two seasons in which he accumulated nearly 50% of his career plate appearances.

The Giants have fittingly signed the six-foot-ten ‘Sisquatch’ with the hope that he can climb the beanstalk.

Just more proof that sometimes the best laid bullpen dreams don’t always work out.