On Tuesday, R.J. Anderson wondered aloud if Eric Hinske could serve as a mentor for Jason Heyward with the Braves this season in a similar capacity that he did with Evan Longoria and the Rays in 2008. Longoria credited Hinske for provoking his nine-year extension that has been cited in many circles as the best contract in baseball. Yesterday, when Chipper Jones told the Atlanta Journal Constitution, “I will be shocked if [Jason Heyward] doesn’t break camp with us,” I’m hopeful the Braves will follow the Evan Longoria example with Heyward in another capacity: service time.

Longoria famously waited two weeks for a call-up at the start of the 2008 season, with Joe Maddon slotting Willy Aybar into the third baseman slot until Longoria got the call on April 12. The reason was clear: Longoria would serve only 170 service days with the Rays that season. By Major League rule, a player is a free agent after six full seasons, which are constituted by 172 service days. By waiting two weeks, the Rays bought themselves another year of controlling Longoria.

On the opposite side of the coin is the Detroit Tigers, who were so enthused by Rick Porcello’s Spring Training a year ago that they started the season with the top prospect in their rotation. Porcello would post a 6.42 FIP in April, but was consistent enough to remain with the Tigers all season. As a result, Porcello will be a free agent after the 2014 season. The Texas Rangers, who waited three weeks to call up Derek Holland (for a Longoria-like 170 service days), will have control of Holland through 2015.

There is simply no argument to be made that the marginal value gained by playing Jason Heyward over Matt Diaz for three weeks in April is worth losing Heyward’s rights for the 2016 season. Yes, calling him up on April 25 will mean that Heyward will be a “Super Two”, and thus, eligible for arbitration a year early. But arbitration contracts are still discounts over free agent ones, and I can already promise you that Heyward’s first free agent contract will be a big one. Without delving into the Heyward vs. Strasburg argument, the Braves should certainly take note that Nats GM Mike Rizzo has already written off his right-handed star beginning the season in Washington. If you think it’s because they want some minor league seasoning for him, you’re crazy — they just want an extra year of not dealing with Scott Boras.

It should not matter that the Braves’ biggest star of the last decade is excited to play with the team’s biggest prospect. Chipper Jones will be gone in 2016, and Jason Heyward could still be there. Maybe Eric Hinske can step in and set Chipper straight, too.

Thanks to Dave Cameron for helping me make sense of baseball’s ludicrous service time rules.

Over the last couple of days, I’ve been discussing opposite field hitting. One name that has come up both in my head as I considered this issue, as well as in the comments section, is that of Ryan Howard. Howard has earned a living – and the biggest arbitration payout in MLB history – by blasting home runs over the left field fence at Citizens Bank Park.

Howard somehow manages to get fantastic extension on balls on the outer half of the plate, allowing him to unleash the full brunt of his mammoth power on any pitch around the strike zone. When we see a hitter like Howard so consistently showing power to the opposite field, it seems apparent that he is doing something different from other hitters in the league.

In general, the reason that most hitters aren’t very productive when hitting the ball the other way is that despite the high fly-ball rate we see to the opposite field, it’s rare for these balls to leave the yard (3% for LHBs), and many of them don’t even escape the infield (14.5% for LHBs). This makes the fly ball, generally a decent result because of the possibility of home runs and extra bases, a very poor result.

When we look at Howard’s career, we see that when he goes the other way, he actually hits more fly balls than the rest of the league’s left handed batters. For his career, Howard has hit a whopping 71.6% of pushed balls in the air, about 19% more than his southpaw peers. This would signal disaster for a normal hitter, as it would mean more infield flies and softly hit outfield flies.

For Howard, it has historically meant lots of home runs. Over his career, 27% of the fly balls he has hit to left field have left the park. This is partially just a function of his mammoth strength, as his 52% HR/FB rate on pulled balls is just under double the league average. There does appear to be more to it, however, as his 27% rate is 9 times higher than the LH average. Part of it probably has to do with Citizens Bank Park, but likely not enough to consider this kind of power as anything but amazing.

The other thing that makes him particularly successful when utilizing left field is an ability to avoid the infield fly. Last year, Howard didn’t hit a single infield fly to the left side in 76 chances, the third season in which he’s accomplished this feat. This is the key to poor performance to the opposite field, as the average LHB hits 14.5% of his fly balls to the infield. With a 52% overall fly rate, that means that around 8% of an average lefty’s pushed batted balls are basically automatic outs, as the BABIP on infield flies is microscopic. That means that even when Howard isn’t knocking the ball over the left field fence, it still has a chance of falling for a hit, and in the outfield, where there’s also a significant chance of extra bases.

This ridiculous fly ball split actually makes Howard a much more productive hitter going to the left side and up the middle, where he has similar numbers, as opposed to when he pulls the ball. His .626 wOBA to LF and .565 wOBA to CF eclipse a still stellar .451 wOBA to RF (these numbers are so far above his career wOBA of .396 because it excludes strikeouts). All the ground balls that Howard hits to the right side (57% of GBs) nullify his power, making LF and CF his areas of best results.

Perhaps this suggests that it would be better to pitch Howard inside. I’m not so sure, as his HR/FB rate to right field is still insanely high, and allowing him to turn on an inside pitch with regularity would probably just result in more home runs. The truth is that Howard is just a power machine, no matter where he hits it, and that’s what has set him apart from the rest of the league.

It’s neither heaven, nor Iowa: it’s the All-Joy Team!

On today’s episode: Debaucherous Hitter.

Sensical? Not entirely. Intriguing? Duh!

DH: Juan Francisco, Cincinnati

I neither subscribe to, nor am I able to advocate, that ethic described most commonly as the Work Hard, Play Hard lifestyle. Ideally, one needn’t distinguish between his work and play. Ideally, one enjoys his work to such a degree that he needn’t “play hard” so’s to — as famous Belgian detective Hercule Poirot would say — “blow off ze steams.” Obviously, this is a rare feat. To pay da billz, we’re often required to perform the tedious*. But even in such cases where one must toil grievously to bring home the bacon — or some other, similarly delicious pork product — there still oughtn’t be a need to send oneself into oblivion.

*Like wash David Appelman’s car, for example. Sheesh, that guy.

That said, there are times when unbridled hedonism is called for. There are times when it feels good to find oneself awake at 5:30 a.m., having imbibed all manner of adult sodas, musing recklessly on life, the universe, and everything. Not every weekend, obviously. (That would be trouble both for one’s liver and career prospects.) But once or twice a year, maybe, it feels good to loosen one’s collar and behave irresponsibly. There’s something cathartic about it that allows the reveler in question to return to bidness as usual after the episode (and subsequent hangover) have passed.

Juan Francisco, I will argue, is the baseballing equivalent of such a catharsis.

For the sabermetrically oriented, Juan Francisco represents basically the antithesis of an ideal batter. His approach at the plate is precisely the opposite of that one employed by most successful major league batters. Over 1982 minor league PAs, Francisco has struck out 442 times (22.3%) while walking only 72 (3.8%)*. He did sport a career-high 0.22 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 464 Double-A PAs last year, but to call that improvement is damning with the faintest of praises. In short, Francisco possesses almost nothing in the way of plate discipline, and even though he’s young, he’s got more than a couple miles to go before his hacking ways sleep.

*Let CHONE do the talking: Francisco’s projected to bat .262/.290/.467 this year.

Yet, one thing he does have is power*. And that power, combined with his recklessness, is, in some way, the reason to watch him. Is Francisco likely to be a great help to Cincinnati this season? No. Nor, were I a Reds fans, would I care to see him anywhere near the big league roster. As a neutral supporter and card-carrying member of the Fidrych Institute, though, the Reds’ win-loss record is of little concern to me. (And, seriously, Francisco poses much less a threat to the Reds’ prospects than Dusty Baker.) Really, all I care to see is Francisco. He won’t walk softly (or at all, really), but he certainly carries the big stick.

*Watch from about second 21 of this video. More than how far he hits the ball, it’s his crazy follow-through that gets me.

With Francisco, the All-Joy Team now looks as follows:

C	Kurt Suzuki
1B	Brian Myrow
2B	Kelly Johnson
3B      Alex Gordon
SS	Ben Zobrist
LF	Chris Heisey
CF	Ryan Sweeney
RF	Daniel Nava
DH      Juan Francisco
UTIF	Adam Rosales

SP	Billy Buckner
SP	Jason Godin
RP	Brandon League
RP	Kevin Jepsen

“That’s pretty much how I pitch, to try to keep my FIP as low as possible,” Greinke said.

“You’d like everybody to cut down on walks,” [J.A. Happ’s pitching coach Rich] Dubee said, “but you have to look at the walks . . . Are they just some real bad deliveries or are they walks where you are pitching around a guy in a situation? Some walks are justifiable. Some aren’t. He’s got intelligence. He’s got awareness of lineups, hitters, situations. Those all play into the game.”

***
FIP is fielding independent pitching, a metric I devised following Voros McCracken’s sabermetric-shattering DIPS (defense-independent pitching stats) theory. If you split a pitcher’s performance based on those that involve his fielders and those that don’t, then FIP is only concerned with that one component of pitching which does not involve his fielders. This would be analogous to SLG not considering walks, or OBP counting a walk and HR equally. Each of these metrics is only concerned with one perspective.

The focus of FIP is on weighting a pitchers walks, strikeouts, hit batters, and homeruns, and it is a constant across all game situations. This is of course wrong. It is wrong because a strikeout has much more value with a runner on 3B and less than 2 outs than if it occurred with bases empty. A walk is less costly with first base open and two outs, than if you had a runner on first base. As I said, all these metrics are focused on one perspective.

There is another metric I devised called Situational Wins (i.e., sum of each individual WPA/LI), and it gives a separate equation for each game situation. In short, the very thing that Happ’s pitching coach is (correctly) bringing up as a shortcoming of FIP is being handled with Situational Wins.

The average walk costs a pitcher about .030 wins. That is, a pitcher gives up a walk, and his team’s chances of winning goes down by 30 points. If they had a .560 chance of winning before the walk, it goes down to .530. This is true on average. But, Happ’s pitching coach is saying that Happ is not the average and that his walks are actually issued more often when it least matters. Is this true of Happ?

David was kind enough to send me the Situational Wins for J.A. Happ’s unintentional walks. Of the 54 walks he issued, their average win value was… .030 wins! That is, his walks were NOT situational. His strikeouts tell a similar story, as the win value of Happ’s strikeouts are similar to those of the average pitcher.

Where Happ did excel was not allowing many singles, doubles, and triples. In addition to that, he minimized this aspect of his game in dangerous situations. This double-whammy is where he was very successful. It explains how he was able to strand a league high 85% of his runners on base, and no one was anywhere close to that. However, it’s more accurate to say that the Phillies with Happ on the mound were very successful.

The historical precedence is that it would be very difficult for a pitcher to repeat his situational pitching with regards to batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Not only did Happ have a low BABIP overall (.270, which was among the league leaders), but in high-leverage situations, it was an unfathomably low .141.

In the face of two metrics that show Happ performed fantastically well, but in an expectedly non-persistent manner, it is his performance with walks, strikeouts and home runs that are persistent. And his performance in that regard, his FIP, was league-average.

On a hypothetical list of achievements that players would like to accomplish on opening day, what is the topper? Is it starting in center field for the Atlanta Braves as a 22-year-old? Or facing the World Series champions on national television. No? Then how about working a 3-1 count in his first Major League at-bat before hitting a rocket the opposite way for his first career hit and home run? Jordan Schafer lived all of it. 11 months later, he’s living off those memories.

Why? Because the dream start quickly gave way to night terrors. Schafer would rack up a total of 195 plate appearances for the Braves. He would make outs in roughly 69% of them. He would pop another homer along the way, but his ISO was a woefully unimpressive and uncharacteristic .084. He did walk a fair amount, nearly 14% of the time, but he also struck out nearly 40% of the time. In fact, he reached base via hit or walk 61 times and fanned 63 times.

Now, that is bad, but it’s fewer than 200 plate appearances as a 22-year-old who had never played in a Triple-A game. 200 plate appearances isn’t much to judge anyone off, especially not players that young trying to adjust to the scene. The problem is that Schafer’s 2009 issues didn’t end there. He went to Triple-A for a handful of games before having season-ending wrist surgery; giving him fewer than 600 plate appearances since the 2007 season ended.

The Braves are pretty stacked in outfield depth. There’s Jason Heyward, Nate McLouth, and Melky Cabrera. There’s also Eric Hinske, Matt Diaz, and Gregor Blanco. Obviously if Schafer performs the Braves have to find a way to squeeze him into the lineup, but each of the first three are under team control for at least an additional two seasons. Maybe they’ll make room for him by moving Cabrera before he becomes expensive, but remember that he’s only two years older than Schafer.

There’s almost no way Schafer is going to start for the Braves anytime this season (barring mass exodus or tragedy) and it’s just another example of how quickly outlooks can flip in baseball. Heck, just ask another former Braves’ outfield prospect who looked like a natural earlier on.

Episode Nine
In which the panel considers what WAR is good for — and how it relates to minor leaguers.

Headlines
On Bryan Smith’s The Next Step
Jesus Montero and the Value of a Catcher
Fan Projections for Minor Leaguers?
Carson Cistulli’s Long Levers
Strasburg, Heyward, and This Guy
… and other candid opinions!

Featuring
Marc Hulet
Erik Manning
Bryan Smith

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

A little over a week ago broadcaster Jon Sciambi wrote a great piece at Baseball Prospectus about a conversation he had with Chipper Jones. Scaimbi noted that Chipper saw the second fewest fraction of first-pitch strikes in the majors, but in spite of this Chipper has reputation as a first-pitch hitter and thus, maybe, he would be better off laying of some of those first-pitch offerings. Sciambi then recounts how Chipper took a fat 91-mph first-pitch fastball and then turned to the broadcast booth and scowled Scaimbi. Click over to the link and check out a great picture of the scowl and generally a very good article.

Sciambi, who notes that he got the numbers from FanGraphs, was quoting F-Strike%, which is the fraction of at-bats for a batter (or pitcher) that start 0-1 or have the ball put in play on the first pitch (i.e., at-bats in which the batter swung at the first pitch or it was called a strike).

A closely related number, which I think also addresses this question but that we do not have on the site is the fraction of first pitches that are in the strike zone (regardless of whether they are swung at or called a strike). Chipper sees the second fewest number of first pitches in the zone. Using the pitchf/x zone the average is 42%, and Chipper’s 32% is second only to Prince Fielder.

So what is Chipper doing to those first pitches compared to the rest of the league and compared to all pitches he sees. These numbers are from the pitchf/x data so they might differ slightly from the Plate Discipline numbers here, which are from BIS. The ranks are out of the just over 300 players who saw more than 1000 pitches last year.

                          Swing Rate
When           Where   Average     Chipper     Rank
All Pitches     Zone      0.65       0.73      43th from top
First Pitches   Zone      0.41       0.67       8th from top

All Pitches     Out       0.32       0.23      16th from bottom 
First Pitches   Out       0.16       0.14     108th from bottom 

First off, looking at all pitches, Chipper is in the great position of swinging at an above average of pitches in the zone while a below average number out of the zone. That shows his amazing plate discipline: the ability to tell the difference between a pitch in and out of the zone, and swing at the former and take the later.

On first pitches all batters swing less often, at both in-zone and out-of-zone pitches. Chipper does as well, but to a much smaller extent. So much so that Chipper enters the top ten swing rate on first pitches in the zone, and on first pitches out of the zone he swings at almost a league average rate, a big jump compared to his tiny out of zone swing rate on all pitches.

So yes, Chipper does swing at a lot of first pitches compared to all batters, and especially compared to his normal pitch rate. He explained why this is to ‘Duk at Big League Stew saying:

“[Sciambi] was just talking about me being overly aggressive, but yet I still drew 100 walks last year. They get mad at me because I don’t take enough pitches. But if I’m drawing 100 walks and hitting .300 … ”

Jones finished the sentence with a shoulder shrug and I asked him to explain why it wasn’t possible for him to take the first pitch on a more frequent basis.

His response echoed the same argument he used with Sciambi.

“There are certain pitchers, quite frankly, that you can’t get behind,” Jones said. “You want to be aggressive and the first hittable fastball that you get is the pitch you want to put in play. Because they’ll bury you if they get ahead of you. You can’t let them do that.

I really liked this exchange. A broadcaster who has the knowledge and curiosity to dig into stats that other might consider arcane and also access to players asks a very germane about those stats to a player. From there a well-connected blogger can ask the player further and get him to explain those numbers. I think it shows the future of sabermetric-based reporting.

General Manager: Jon Daniels
Farm Director: Scott Servais
Scouting Director: Kip Fagg

2006-2009 Draft Results:
First three rounds included
x- over-slot signees ($200,000 or more)

2009 1st Round: Matt Purke, LHP, Texas HS (Did Not Sign)
1S. Tanner Scheppers, RHP, IND
2. Tommy Mendonca, 3B, Fresno State
3. Robbie Erlin, LHP, California HS
5x – Nick McBride, RHP, North Carolina HS
12x – Chad Bell, LHP, Walters State CC
17x – Paul Strong, LHP, California HS
24x – Shawn Blackwell, RHP, Texas HS
25x – Riley Cooper, OF, Florida

The club was dealt a big blow to its ’09 draft hopes when Purke failed to come to terms and walked away from a multi-million dollar deal to attended Texas Christian University. Luckily, the club managed to land the hard-throwing Scheppers with a supplemental pick. The right-hander could move quickly through the system but it remains to be seen how long his shoulder will hold up given his previous health woes.

Mendonca had a nice debut in short-season ball by hitting .309/.361/.537 in 188 at-bats. He was over-powered in an 11-game trial at high-A ball and his +30% strikeout rate is cause for concern. Erlin pitched just 4.0 innings after signing, but he made some noise with nine strikeouts. He has a plus curveball.

With the money that the club saved by not getting a deal done with Purke, it was able to spread the love around a bit in later rounds. All five of the over-slot deals will make their pro debuts in 2010, and the four pitchers will likely spend some time in extended spring training. Cooper should start in A-ball.

2008 1st Round: Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina
2. Robbie Ross, LHP, Kentucky HS
3. Tim Murphy, LHP, UCLA
7x – Matt Thompson, RHP, Texas HS

Both Smoak and Ross appear on the club’s Top 10 list. Murphy had a rough year in high-A ball and posted a 6.80 ERA (4.68 FIP) in 135.0 innings. He allowed 184 hits while missing few bats (5.73 K/9). Thompson did not strike out a ton of batters either (6.63 K/9) and he gave up a lot of hits (87 in 72.0 innings). However, he showed excellent control with a walk rate of 1.25 BB/9. Keep an eye on right-hander Joe Wieland (4th round) as a possible sleeper.

2007 1st Round: Blake Beavan, RHP, Texas HS
1. Michael Main, RHP, Florida HS
1S. Julio Borbon, OF, Tennessee
1S. Neil Ramirez, RHP, Virginia HS
1S. Tommy Hunter, RHP, Alabama
2. Matt West, 3B, Texas HS
3. Evan Reed, RHP, Cal Poly
13x – Kyle O’Campo, RHP, California HS

Like a few teams in ’07, the organization was set to really improve the depth in its system with five picks before the second round. However, both first round prep hurlers, Beavan and Main, have been slower to develop than Texas had hoped. Main has dealt with health issues, while Beavan’s prep velocity did not follow him into pro ball. His strikeout rate plummeted to 3.41 K/9 in 89.2 double-A innings in ’09. West has seen his OPS drift steadily downwards with each season, from .785 to .725 to .671. Defensively, though, he has a strong arm at third base.

Borbon and Hunter have chances to make major impacts on the big league club in 2010. Borbon is the favorite to win a starting job in the outfield, while Hunter could make the club as the No. 5 starter.

Ramirez, 20, still has good potential, but he needs to avoid the DL and improve his control. Reed, who was supposed to be a fast-moving college reliever, did not respond well after the club tried to make him a starter. He rebounded somewhat in ’09 but continued to show below-average control (5.18 BB/9). O’Campo has shown some flashes of potential but he’s spent the last two seasons in short-season and rookie ball.

Outfielder Tim Smith (7th round) was a nice grab but he was dealt to Kansas City last season for pitching prospect Danny Gutierrez. OF/1B Mitch Moreland (17th round) was an even better signing and he made the club’s Top 10 list.

2006 1st Round: Kasey Kiker, LHP, Alabama HS
2. None
3. Chad Tracy, C/1B, Pepperdine
4x – Marcus Lemon, SS, Florida HS
6x – Jake Brigham, RHP, Florida HS
25x – Derek Holland, LHP, Alabama CC

Clearly the best player in the draft is Holland, who could take a real step forward in 2010. First-rounder Kiker is still promising, as well, but there are doubts about his ability to stick in the rotation due to durability concerns. I was a big fan of Tracy in college but his move from behind the dish has hurt his value. He may end up as a Quad-A slugger. Lemon has been a solid, but unspectacular, player in the minors as he lacks power and has yet to steal more than 12 bases in a season. Brigham has is developing slowly.

Slugger Chris Davis (5th round) is already making a name for himself in Texas. Southpaw Danny Herrera (45th round) appeared in 70 big league games for Cincinnati in ’09.

Up Next: The Texas Rangers Top 10 Prospects

Two weeks ago we heard vague rumors regarding the Diamondbacks and Justin Upton working on an extension. As it turns out, those rumors had some legs. Yesterday we learned that the two sides have agreed to a six-year, $51.25 million contract that buys out all of Upton’s arbitration years, plus two years of free agency. This is a year longer and $10 million cheaper than the projection I offered, though that was based on an extension following the 2010 season. As with many deals of this nature, it represents a win for both sides.

By signing Upton now, the Diamondbacks ensure that their most promising young player stays with the team for the forseeable future. They also might have saved money. Even if Upton repeats his 2009 numbers this season, he’d be due a large raise in his first pass through the arbitration process. The Diamondbacks could approach him about an extension then, but at that point Upton would have more leverage. Perhaps at that point Upton wouldn’t agree to anything less than five years and $58 million.

In exchange for this presumed discount, Upton gains the security of a guaranteed contract. Even if he sustains a major injury next year the Diamondbacks will still pay him that $51.25 million. If he stays healthy he will likely make less than he would by going through the arbitration process and then hitting free agency after the 2013 season. But Upton’s age helps mitigate the underpayment. The contract runs through his age-27 season, meaning he could still be in line for a big payday. Depending on the economic conditions at the time, that could be a considerable deal, perhaps comparable to Mark Teixeira’s $180 million contract.

Even at a discount this deal pays Upton a healthy sum. Assuming $1.25 million for the 2010 season, and further assuming that Upton will make 40, 60, and 80 percent of his free agency value through his arbitration years, the deal will look like this:

2010: $1.25 MM
2011: $5.26 MM
2012: $7.9 MM
2013: $10.5 MM
2014: $13.17 MM
2015: $13.17 MM

For comparison, Ryan Braun will earn $4, $6, and $8.5 million for his arbitration years, followed by $10 and $12 million for his first two free agent years. Hanley Ramirez’s deal paid him $5.5 for his first arbitration year and will pay him $7 million for the second this year. In the third he’ll make $11 million, followed by $15, $15.5, and $16 million in free agent equivalent salaries.

The most comparable could be David Wright, who earned $1 million in his final reserve clause season, followed by arbitration salaries of $5, $7.5, and $10 million. The Mets then have his first two free agency years at $14 and $15 million, with a $16 million club option for a third. Upton and Wright signed their extensions with the same amount of service time, so it makes sense that they received comparable deals. Wright, however, put up better numbers during his first two seasons, and also plays a more valuable defensive position.

After posting a .388 wOBA and producing 4.6 WAR as a 21-year-old, Upton figures to improve over the next few years. The Diamondbacks wanted to make sure they had him under contract, as to avoid the threat of arbitration. Upton, like most players, wanted the security of a long-term contract. Both sides will get what they want, while Upton can still find his big payday in free agency at age 28. It’s hard to not like this deal from both sides.

Chase Headley was not born to play the outfield in the Major Leagues. Before the 2008 season, Kevin Goldstein ranked him atop the Padres farm system as a Five-Star Prospect. However, if there was a reservation, it was this: “Headley is not much of an athlete. He’s a below-average runner, and while he makes the plays he gets to, his range falls a bit short.” This, as you can imagine, did not translate well to the spacious left field in PETCO Park. In 196 games in left between 2008 and 2009, Headley cost the Padres 16.7 runs in the outfield. It didn’t work.

The former second-round pick produced 14.5 runs above replacement for the Padres last season, but at the expense of 7.2 fielding runs below average, and a -4.9 run positional adjustment. Major League organizations will always make room for a good bat, so when Headley hit .305/.383/.556 in 65 games to start the 2008 season, it was time to make room. In a perfect world, he would have learned and improved in the outfield, but it was not to be. With Kevin Kouzmanoff due for a raise in his second season of arbitration, we have to give the Padres credit for recognizing the Headley-the-outfielder experiment didn’t take. Given that he produced +0.6 UZR in 225 innings at third base filling in for Kouzmanoff last season, San Diego knew Headley would be significantly more valuable at the hot corner.

In our positional adjustments at FanGraphs, the difference between a left fielder and a third baseman is 10 runs over a full season. Considering that Headley is probably a -10 defender in the outfield, and we’ll call him a conservative -2.5 defender at third base, the difference rises to 17.5 runs. If Headley plays as often as he did last season, and shows no offensive improvement from ages 25 to 26, his WAR will jump to 2.7 in 2010. Which, you’ll notice, is exactly what Kouzmanoff produced in his three years at the hot corner in San Diego. Back to the position where he was drafted, Headley should begin to make good on Goldstein’s two-year-old Five-Star ranking.

*****

Kyle Blanks is, best as I can tell, one of the three heaviest baseball players to ever spend a sixth of a season (27 games) in a Major League outfield. Adam Dunn and Dmitri Young are his peers in the +275-pound club, and they are not good outfielders. In the UZR era, they combine for something like -17.5 UZR/150 in the outfield. Blanks was something better than this in his limited 2009 sample (-10.3 UZR/150), but he’s no great shakes in the outfield. And the strange thing is, he kind of is at first base. Blanks was the 2005 JuCo Defensive Player of the Year, and he managed to garner positive scouting reports throughout his minor league career.

This season, Blanks will begin the season playing outfield everyday in PETCO Park. If he makes good on the Fans Projections and produced 14 batting runs above average, but sticks in the outfield as a -7.5 defender, we’re looking at a 1.8 WAR player. But, he also stands to replace Adrian Gonzalez if the Padres send him east at the trade deadline. If we consider that first base is five runs less in a position adjustment than a corner outfield spot, Blanks will have to be -2.5 or better at first base to offset the downgrade in the defensive spectrum. Considering the scouting reports, this seems like an apt goal, and gives the Padres a nice replacement for their best hitter.

*****

The Padres did what they had to last season to get their four best bats into their four corner spots. But, as a result, Chase Headley and Kyle Blanks contributed less wins above replacement than what they would have at their natural position. While a Major League organization needs to be concerned with the best value added for their team, prospect analysis must be concerned with how potential changes might affect a player’s production. I do not believe we should evaluate prospects in a vacuum, but instead recognize how a player’s situation could alter his WAR output.